2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Pac-12
Time for the Pac-12’s time in the sun. From where I’m sitting, the conference looks a little light in position players but plenty strong in arms. There are a few impact, early-round talents to account for in the position player group (Austin Wilson very clearly leading the way, trailed by Brian Ragira and Andrew Knapp) and some nice depth thereafter, but most of the talent in the 2013 draft class will be found on the mound. Mark Appel headlines the pitching talent with over a dozen names in serious competition to be selected second from the group. Should be a fun, competitive year with talent fairly evenly spread throughout the league. The one thing that shocked me when going through the Pac-12 rosters was the lack of interesting talent on what tends to be a traditionally strong Arizona State squad. Stanford, UCLA, Oregon, and Oregon State look to be the class of the conference, at least in terms of future professional talent. Alright, enough of that…let’s get to some 2013 MLB Draft talk.
Here’s the key for the player lists:
- Bold = locks to be drafted
- Italics = definite maybes
- Underlined = possible risers
- Plain text = long shots
Here we go…
C
- California JR C Andrew Knapp
- Oregon State JR C Jake Rodriguez
- Washington State JR C Collin Slaybaugh
- Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter
- Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez
- Washington JR C Ryan Wiggins
- Stanford JR C Brant Whiting
Without giving it a ton of thought, I think it is fair to include Andrew Knapp on any short list of best draft-eligible college catching prospects in the country. He made a really nice jump between his freshman and sophomore seasons, and I expect more of the same heading into his junior year. It is probably unfair to peg him as a “breakout” candidate for 2013 — he’s too big a name for that, I think — but a .300/.400/.500 season with improved defense behind the plate doesn’t seem out of the question. Neither Jake Rodriguez nor Collin Slaybaugh profile as everyday catchers, but both guys do enough well at the plate that their defensive versatility (infield for Rodriguez, outfield for Slaybaugh) means something beyond just a novelty. Rodriguez, who probably has the tools to play any spot on the diamond in a pinch, is especially intriguing thanks to his speed, arm, power to the gaps, and better by the day defense behind the plate. Max Rossiter and Jake Hernandez are both really good defenders who can give you a little something at the plate as well; Rossiter in particular looks like a really strong senior sign this year.
1B
- Oregon JR 1B Ryon Healy
- Oregon State SR 1B Danny Hayes
- Washington State rJR 1B Adam Nelubowich
- California rJR 1B Devon Rodriguez
- Arizona JR 1B Brandon Dixon
- Stanford SR 1B Justin Ringo
- California JR 1B Jacob Wark
- UCLA JR 1B Pat Gallagher
- Oregon JR 1B Jake Jelmini
- Arizona JR 1B Sam Parris
Healy in a nutshell, from my notes: “loved him out of HS, but now a 1B only [was a 3B in HS] so he’ll have to hit a ton to make it.” I still believe in the bat, but admit to liking Healy a little bit more than your usual 1B prospect thanks to the “break glass in case of emergency” option that is his right arm. His most direct path to the big leagues is via his bat, obviously, though his mid-90s fastball past could give him an alternate route if necessary. Danny Hayes is a legitimately great college hitter. His ability to control the strike zone, hit for power, and do it all while operating at far less than 100% physically makes him one of my favorite 2013 prospects to watch. Still, the road to the upper-levels of professional ball is littered with great college hitters who can’t replicate their success enough to make it once hitting becomes a full-time job. Adam Nelubowich has a lot of fans in the scouting community, but I’m still reticent to go all-in on him as a prospect. For all the beauty of his swing and the clearly evident raw power, he hasn’t had a whole lot of positive outcomes as a college player. I think most of his backers would also argue fairly strongly against his placement on the 1B list, citing his decent foot speed, solid reactions, and overall improved defense at the hot corner. As even a slightly below-average 3B, I’d put him on top of the list of eligible PAC-12 prospects, but, for now, I’ll stick with my perhaps overly conservative approach.
2B
- Stanford JR 2B Lonnie Kauppila
- UCLA JR 2B Kevin Williams
- Arizona State JR 2B Mike Benjamin
- Stanford JR 2B Brett Michael Doran
- Oregon JR 2B Aaron Payne
- Southern California SR 2B Adam Landecker
Lonnie Kauppila should be listed with the shortstops — he’s very good there — but I like his defense so much at second base, where he has the potential to be at or near the top of whatever league ranking he’s in, that he stays here for now. Ultimately, his value will likely come as a defense-first backup middle infielder, so it won’t really matter what position is his primary spot going forward. Kevin Williams is enough middle infielder with legitimate plus defensive ability and outstanding athleticism in the conference. Mike Benjamin has the most pop out of the group, so consider his a name to follow this spring. Fun line on Brett Michael Doran, from my notes: “walks and talks like a big league veteran.” So, if nothing else, he’s got that going for him.
3B
- Oregon State JR 3B Jerad Casper
- UCLA SR 3B Cody Regis
- Southern California JR 3B Kevin Swick
- Utah JR 3B Trey Nielsen
Third base is easily the weakest position group in the conference with a strong likelihood that no Pac-12 prospect manning the hot corner will get drafted this June. The steady fielding Jerad Casper has the best chance at the moment, though much remains to be seen in how his bat will translate to major college ball. Cody Regis will likely play little to no 3B this spring for UCLA, but has shown enough there to warrant a switch back if he gets a shot in pro ball. Swick gets high marks for his instincts and intelligence on the diamond, and his power upside remains intriguing, but he’ll have to come a long way with the bat to get noticed in time for the draft this summer. The only thing I have on Nielsen in my notes outside of basic biographical information is that he can spin a good breaking ball. That’s a positive to be sure, but not exactly what you want your calling card to be as a third base prospect.
SS
- Oregon State SR SS Tyler Smith
- Oregon SR SS JJ Altobelli
- Oregon State JR SS Kavin Keyes
- UCLA JR SS Pat Valaika
- Southern California JR SS Jimmy Roberts
- California JR SS Derek Campbell
- Washington State rSO SS Trace Tam Sing
- Stanford JR SS Danny Diekroeger
- Oregon State JR SS Andy Peterson
I’d say it isn’t every season that a team finds itself with three draft-eligible shortstop prospects of note, but Oregon State has managed to pull off the trick in 2013. Tyler Smith is a steady glove with enough range and arm for the left side who is coming off an unexpected power explosion in 2012. Kavin Keyes can play average defense at short, third, and second, but will need to show a little more with the bat in 2013 to get more pro attention. Andy Peterson is coming off of two productive years at Santa Ana JC and comes highly regarded, though he’ll have to do his best to get at bats when he can behind both Smith (SS) and Keyes (2B). JJ Altobelli, Derek Campbell, and Trace Tam Sing can all more than hold their own in the field. I think it is worth mentioning that there were plenty of rumblings out of Stanford last spring that Danny was the better ballplayer than his older brother Kenny. Not necessarily the better prospect — though I’m sure some were willing to go that far — but the better ballplayer. Many casual draft fans get angry at this kind of logic — if he’s better now, how can he not be the better prospect? — but projection is king in the world of prospecting.
OF
- Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson
- Stanford JR OF Brian Ragira
- UCLA SO OF Eric Filia-Snyder
- Washington State JR OF Jason Monda
- Arizona JR OF Johnny Field
- UCLA JR OF Brenton Allen
- Washington JR OF Will Sparks
- Oregon SR OF Andrew Mendenhall
- Utah JR OF Braden Anderson
- Oregon JR OF Connor Hofmann
- Southern California SR OF Greg Zebrack
- Oregon JR OF Kyle Garlick
- Washington SR OF Michael Camporeale
- California SR OF Vince Bruno
- Oregon JR OF Brett Thomas
- Southern California JR OF Omar Cotto Lozada
- Oregon SR OF/RHP Ryan Hambright
- Oregon State SR OF Ryan Barnes
- Oregon State SR OF Joey Matthews
- Utah SR OF Connor Eppard
- Arizona State JR OF Kasey Coffman
- Arizona State JR OF James McDonald
- Arizona State rSO OF Trever Allen
- Washington SR OF Jayce Ray
- UCLA JR OF Brian Carroll
- Oregon JR OF Tyler Baumgartner
- Stanford JR OF Brian Guymon
- Washington State rJR OF Brett Jacobs
There are some things to work on with Austin Wilson — a few swing issues that need ironing out, specifically his comically high back elbow that slows the whole operation down, and pitch recognition problems that may or may not be fixable with more at bats — but few amateur players across this country possess his blend of plus-plus power, much of it already present in-game, plus-plus arm strength, and above-average athleticism all wrapped up in a tight end strong 6-5, 250 pound frame. I do find it interesting — not good, not bad, just interesting — that after two years of college we’ve learned so little about Wilson as a prospect. He’s pretty much the same player he was as a senior in high school that he is now. Here’s what I wrote about him then:
The comps for Wilson range from silly (Dave Winfield) to topical (Andre Dawson) to “man, I feel old comparing high school kids to players I loved when I was 10″ (Juan Gonzalez, Moises Alou) to intriguingly ultra-modern and therefore ultra-hip (Mike Taylor, Mike Stanton) all the way to completely made up by me just now (Shawn Green, Ellis Burks). It goes without saying that Wilson hitting his ceiling would be blessed to have a career like any of the players listed above (minus the minor leaguers, I suppose), but they do provide some context into what has been said about Wilson’s upside as a prospect so far. The two current minor league comps stick out to me as particularly interesting; Mike Stanton is a comp that mixes Wilson’s most immediate “realistic” upside as top minor league prospect with an equally plausible estimation of his tools (power, arm, good enough speed, should be good defenders in the corner), and Mike Taylor’s name serves as a reminder that Stanford commits like Wilson are always a pain in the neck to get signed.
Power, arm, good enough speed (especially for his size), should be good defender in a corner (RF)…I’d say all that holds true today. We still don’t know for sure about his plate discipline, other than what he’s actually done on the field thus far (7 BB/53 K as freshman, 25 BB/42 K as sophomore) and what little has been observed about his inability to pick up and hit good breaking stuff. One comp that I didn’t mention back in his high school days that I think makes a world of sense now, at least in terms of hitting style and build (especially if you don’t love his plate discipline outlook): former National and current Mariner Michael Morse. I think Morse represents a fairly realistic baseline for Wilson, if/when Wilson makes it as a big league regular.
Wilson’s teammate, Brian Ragira, is a hard player to figure defensively. As great as Ragira is at first base, his offensive profile fits much, much nicer in right field. I think he has the athleticism for it, but the emergence of Dominic Smith, first base defensive whiz at the high school level, has me reconsidering my view a bit. See, Smith is such an excellent glove at first that I wouldn’t want to move him off the position even if I thought he could become an average or better glove (I do think this, by the way) in an outfield corner. If Ragira can offer the same defensive upside at first base — and many think his glove at first is on par with Smith’s for best overall in the class — then maybe you keep him there, reap the defensive rewards, and pray that the bat can at least become average or even slightly below-average for the position in time. I’d still roll the dice on him in right field — he was an excellent defender in CF as a high schooler, if memory serves — and wait out his plus raw power, mature approach (which I could see really taking a leap forward in BB/K results this year), and quick bat developing over time.
The two UCLA prospects are exactly that: prospects. If the high ranking seems unusually aggressive, then, well, it probably is. Eric Filia-Snyder has all of 53 college at bats to his name. Brenton Allen has 24 total at bats in two post-high school years. A lot of faith is being put in Filia-Snyder’s advanced hit tool and Allen’s raw speed/power combination, doubly so when you combine the lack of experience with the unfortunate truth that both guys have below-average arms that will likely limit them to LF professionally. Jason Monda remains too aggressive for his own good at the plate, but flashes enough speed, arm, power, and athleticism to remain interesting. Johnny Field is totally different: his physical tools are all underwhelming, but he can roll out of bed ready to hit line drives. If he can play 2B, as some believe, he could be a fast riser this spring.
Where things get really interesting is the next tier down. The Pac-12 is absolutely loaded with plus running athletes up and down the league. With most of these guys you’re trading some degree of refinement and experience for said speed and athleticism, but if you gamble and wind up taking the right one, you’ll be sitting pretty. Sparks, Mendenhall, Anderson, and Hofmann all have the sheer physical skills to rank third behind only the two Stanford standouts in terms of ceiling. Sparks showed well in limited chances last year, and has the best raw power of the bunch. Mendenhall remains intriguing because of the relative low price tag the senior sign figures to jump at, not to mention his higher than usual ceiling for a fourth year player. Anderson is the best runner of the group and Hofmann, the rawest of the four, offers the widest range of current tools (arm, speed, hit, range). Then there’s Omar Cotto Lozada, a player described in my notes as “if Usain bolt played baseball.” I think that comparison is probably more true than even Cotto Lozada would like: you love the plus-plus-plus speed he brings, but his current skill level at the plate is closer to what you’d expect from a real deal non-baseball player like Bolt. Greg Zebrack doesn’t fit this speed/athleticism mold — his game is more power, smarts, and approach — but he’s a fun story to watch (started at USC, then went to Penn, where I saw him, and now back at USC for grad school) as a potential late-round senior sign.
SP
- Stanford JR RHP Mark Appel
- Oregon rJR LHP Christian Jones
- UCLA JR RHP Adam Plutko
- Stanford JR RHP AJ Vanegas
- UCLA JR RHP Zack Weiss
- UCLA JR RHP Nick Vander Tuig
- Arizona State JR RHP Trevor Williams
- Oregon JR RHP Jimmie Sherfy
- Oregon State JR RHP Dan Child
- Oregon rSO RHP Clayton Crum
- Arizona JR RHP Konner Wade
- Oregon State SR LHP Matt Boyd
- Washington SR RHP Josh Fredendall
- Oregon State JR LHP Ben Wetzler
- Oregon State SR RHP Cole Brocker
- Oregon State SR RHP Tony Bryant
- California JR LHP Mike Theofanopoulos
- Oregon JR RHP Brando Tessar
- Utah SR RHP Zach Adams
- Arizona State SR RHP Alex Blackford
- California SR LHP Justin Jones
- Washington State JR RHP JD Leckenby
- Oregon rJR RHP Jeff Gold
- Washington rJR RHP Nick Palewicz
- Washington JR RHP Austin Voth
- Oregon State rSR RHP Taylor Starr
- Arizona SR RHP Tyler Hale
- Arizona JR RHP James Farris
- Oregon State JR RHP Scott Schultz
- Stanford rJR LHP Garrett Hughes
- California rSO RHP Dylan Nelson
- UCLA rJR RHP Ryan Deeter
- Arizona SR RHP Nick Cunningham
- California rJR RHP Seth Spivack
- Utah JR RHP Ben Mordini
- California JR LHP Kyle Porter
- Washington JR RHP Tyler Kane
- Stanford SR RHP Dean McArdle
- Southern California JR LHP Kyle Richter
- Washington JR RHP Trevor Dunlap
- Oregon State JR RHP Clay Bauer
- Oregon State rSO LHP Tyler Painton
- California SR RHP Ryan Wertenberger
- Southern California JR RHP James Guillen
- Arizona State SR LHP Matt Dunbar
- Washington JR RHP Jeff Brigham
- Southern California SR RHP Matt Munson
- Arizona SR LHP Vince Littleman
- Utah SR RHP Brock Duke
- Utah SR RHP Joe Pond
- California SR RHP Logan Scott
- Utah SR RHP Chase Rezac
- Southern California JR LHP Bobby Wheatley
- Washington State JR RHP Kellen Camus
- Washington JR RHP Zach Wright
- Washington State rSO RHP Scott Simon
- Utah JR LHP Tanner Banks
- Stanford SR RHP Sahil Bloom
Here’s what we said about Appel last June, no reason to switch it up now (updated only to indicate change in year and height/weight):
Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel: sits 93-97 with four-seamer, hitting 99; holds velocity late: still at 94-95 in ninth innings; all FBs typically between 90-95; 88-92 two-seam FB with excellent sink; excellent FB command, but gets in trouble with too many hitter’s strikes – almost a little bit of a great control vs. good command situation; FB also gets in trouble at higher velocity when it flattens out and comes in too straight, especially when he forgets about two-seamer; sat consistently 96-98 with FB in summer 2011; easiest high velocity arm in class by a wide margin; rarely dips below 92; opening start 2012: 91-95 FB, 97 peak; above-average 82-84 SL that remains inconsistent; low-80s CU; for me, he’s at his best when he is 92-94 with plus sink and throwing lots of SL, sometimes gets too dependent on FB and overthrows it causing him to miss up in the zone; as the spring moved on, his SL improved considerably, though it lacks the sharpness and break of a true SL (it is more of a hybrid-breaking ball at this point) – now it is a more consistent, though still not reliable, 82-85 pitch with plus upside that can reach even higher (86-87 when he rears back); 80-85 circle CU with very good sink is currently an average big league pitch with plus upside – it is currently his best swing and miss pitch and my favorite of his offspeed offerings; can get in trouble showing too much of the ball in his delivery; no denying his raw stuff – taken individually, each pitch grades out as above-average to plus down the line, but the inability to throw all three pitches for strikes on any given day continues to be his downfall; downfall is, of course, relative – he still has the upside to be a frontline starter with the realistic floor of big league innings eater; 6-5, 215 pounds
He’s good. The gap between Appel and the next best pitching prospect in the conference is immense. That’s not to say there aren’t other high upside arms to be found — a quick glance at the UCLA roster disproves this notion in a hurry — but rather demonstrates the wonderful high ceiling/high floor projection that Appel carries with him. The aforementioned UCLA staff is so deep that my favorite pro arm can’t currently crack the weekend rotation. Zack Weiss has had an up and down career for the Bruins thus far, but possesses the three above-average pitches (FB/CB/SL) that could help him take off once given a more consistent opportunity. Adam Plutko and Nick Vander Tuig, in line to start Friday and Saturday respectively this spring, are no prospect slouches in their own right. Plutko doesn’t blow his fastball by hitters, but the pitch still grades out as a consistent plus offering thanks to pinpoint command and exceptional late movement. He’ll also flash a plus low-70s curve and work in solid but unspectacular changeups and sliders. I’m pretty sure just reviewing my notes and typing this out has convinced me to swap the two guys on my list. Just goes to show how important the fastball extras (command and movement) can be, especially when joined with beautiful, consistent mechanics. Vanegas, recently shut down due to injury, has back of the bullpen stuff that should help him take a huge step up in 2013, if his health allows it. The previously mentioned Vander Tuig and Trevor Williams feel like kindred spirits from a scouting perspective: underwhelming performances, but optimism going forward thanks to fastballs with good sink, changeups that flash plus, and occasionally impressive breaking stuff. Lost in this discussion thus far is the man ranked one spot below Appel, Christian Jones. If Jones returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form before draft day, a team would be wise taking a chance on him early on. Jimmy Sherfy will be an interesting draft day case in that his numbers are second to none (14.38 K/9 in 2012) while his stuff is far more good than dominant. Dan Child fits the power-armed relief ace role more easily with a more consistently hot fastball and intimidating size (6-5, 225 pounds to Sherfy’s 6-0, 180), but hasn’t had quite the same kind of oppressive strikeout totals to date.
The overall depth of this year’s group of Pac-12 arms is quite impressive. I’m stuck wanting to talk about just about every name listed. For the sake of brevity I’ll just highlight a few interesting cases. Guys who stand out to me at this moment include Konner Wade (so well-rounded, plus sinking fastball), Matt Boyd (lefty, deep arsenal, good deception, very smart), Josh Fredenhall (everything down in zone, always), Zach Adams (inconsistent velocity, more inconsistent control, but electric when everything is working), JD Leckenby (underwhelming numbers but good stuff and excellent competitor), Taylor Starr (been in school for what seems like a decade, has endured multiple health challenges but shown good stuff when right), and Ben Mordini (one of the few players with an element of his game so bad I’d use the adjective “horrible” [control] but still flashes good stuff and can strike batters out). I feel bad leaving so many deserving pitchers without comments, so feel free to drop me a line via email or in the comments if there’s anything else that you’d like to see unearthed. One last name because I can’t help myself: Austin Voth (think I may be badly underrating him, but he throws strikes and has really good feel for his offspeed stuff, especially the change).
2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: WAC
WAC now, Pac-12 and Missouri Valley both almost ready to see the light of day. Finally starting to make some progress on these things. No hesitation, let’s talk WAC…
Here’s the key for the player lists:
- Bold = locks to be drafted
- Italics = definite maybes
- Underlined = possible risers
- Plain text = long shots
Here we go…
C
- Cal State Bakersfield JR C Cael Brockmeyer
- Texas State rJR C Tyler Pearson
- Louisiana Tech rJR C Kyle Arnsberg
- Texas State SR C Andrew Stumph
- Dallas Baptist SR C Duncan McAlpine
- Texas-Arlington JR C Greg McCall
- Seattle rJR C Ryan Somers
Brockmeyer’s size (6-5, 220 pounds) may necessitate a permanent move to first at some point, but his defense at present is good enough to stick for the foreseeable future. It goes without saying that he’s a better prospect the longer he can catch, but it is also worth mentioning that his bat is interesting enough that he’d also be the top first base prospect in the conference if that’s where you think he’ll eventually wind up. A pair of recent transfers share the spotlight with Brockmeyer near the top of the list. Tyler Pearson, a Rice transfer, comes to Texas State as an acclaimed defender. He’ll join powerful yet raw defender Andrew Stumph in what could be a particularly strong offense/defense timeshare. Kyle Arnsberg underwhelmed at the plate last year after transferring from Arizona State by way of McLennan JC, but brings enough positives to the table — athleticism, above-average defender, size, plate discipline — to watch him as a potential senior sign of note.
1B
- Sacramento State SR 1B Clay Cederquist
- San Jose State JR 1B Matt Carroll
- Texas-Arlington SR 1B JM Twitchell
- San Jose State JR 1B Matt Lopez
- Texas State JR 1B Austin O’Neal
- Dallas Baptist JR 1B Chane Lynch
- New Mexico State SR 1B Kris Koerper
A good college first base prospect is hard to find, and things are no different in the WAC than they are across the rest of the country. Any one of Cederquist, Carroll, or Twitchell could be drafted based largely on the strength of their bats. Koerper’s power would put him in the same ballpark, but I don’t believe he’ll be suiting up for New Mexico State in 2013.
2B
- New Mexico State SR 2B Parker Hipp
- Sacramento State SR 2B Andrew Ayers
- San Jose State JR 2B Jacob Valdez
- Cal State Bakersfield JR 2B Oscar Sanay
There continues to be little to no buzz about Parker Hipp from a scouting standpoint, but all he’s done is put up numbers for New Mexico State. I don’t have anything new on him since last spring, so I’m hoping that what I wrote about him last year holds true today: “raw totals are inflated by home park, but park/schedule adjusted numbers still show his tremendous plate discipline; getting him into pro ball may help him go back to a less power-oriented swing; solid glove.”
3B
- Sacramento State JR 3B Will Soto
- San Jose State JR 3B Caleb Natov
- New Mexico State SR 3B Robert Lecount
Quick and easy view on the hot corner: three useful college players, but not much to see in terms of pro prospects.
SS
- Louisiana Tech SR SS Taylor Terrasas
- Texas State SR SS Nick Smelser
- Texas-Arlington JR SS Ryan Walker
- Louisiana Tech JR SS Ryan Gebhardt
Things are a little bit better with this shortstop group, but I still think we’re looking at really good college players rather than legitimate professional prospects. Terrasas (.330/.435/.509) and Gebhardt (.327/.399/.399) both walked as much as they struck out last year, Walker showed the best power/speed blend (.428 slugging and 14/18 SB), and Smelser, the least impressive statistically of the quartet, has the best all-around tools package, especially on defense.
OF
- Texas-San Antonio JR OF Riley Good
- Dallas Baptist rSR OF Boomer Collins
- San Jose State SR OF Nick Schulz
- Louisiana Tech JR OF Sam Alvis
- Texas-Arlington rJR OF Matt Shortall
- New Mexico State JR OF Quinnton Mack
- Sacramento State JR OF Justin Higley
- New Mexico State rJR OF Tanner Rust
- Texas State SR OF Morgan Mickan
- Texas-San Antonio SR OF Daniel Rockett
- Sacramento State rJR OF David Del Grande
- Texas-San Antonio JR OF John Welborn
- New Mexico State SR OF Kyle Phillips
- Dallas Baptist SR OF Ronnie Mitchell
Regular readers know I hate the idea of sleepers — too many people out there care about this stuff that I find it very presumptuous to assume I’m the lone voice supporting a particular prospect — but Riley Good comes as close to the idea in the WAC as I can surmise. He does all the things you want out of a CF — catch the ball, run, throw — while also showing off an average hit tool with decent plate discipline. It seems highly doubtful that there are any starting caliber outfielders in the conference, so a backup outfielder skill set like Good’s begins to look just fine after a while.
On top of having a cool name, Boomer Collins can play. His numbers put him at the top of returning WAC outfielders by a comfortable margin and his average power/speed/arm strength combo is enticing. The Nebraska transfer is the better bet to have a superior college season than the man ranked one spot above him, but Good’s age and positional value give him the narrow edge. Two-way standout Sam Alvis could be in line for a breakout if allowed to focus more attention on his role as a position player. Shorthall, a Tulane transfer, has serious raw power, but has not yet been able to put it to consistent use thanks to the too much swing and miss in him. Quinnton Mack has his fans, and Tanner Rust, a versatile defender who may be able to stick at 3B or C with more reps, could intrigue a team late on draft day.
P
- Texas State JR RHP Kyle Finnegan
- Dallas Baptist rJR RHP Jake Johansen
- Texas-Arlington JR RHP John Beck
- New Mexico State SR LHP Ryan Beck
- Dallas Baptist rSR RHP Michael Smith
- Texas State SR RHP Mitchell Pitts
- Texas-San Antonio SR RHP Clint Sharp
- Louisiana Tech SR RHP Trevor Petersen
- Dallas Baptist JR RHP Cody Beam
- Texas State JR RHP Scott Grist
- New Mexico State SR RHP Adam Mott
- Texas State JR RHP Hunter Lemke
- San Jose State JR RHP DJ Slaton
- Sacramento State JR RHP Dallas Chadwick
- San Jose State JR LHP Johnny Melero
- Sacramento State SR LHP Tyler Hoelzen
- New Mexico State SR RHP Michael Ormseth
- San Jose State SR LHP David Wayne Russo
- Texas-San Antonio JR LHP Michael Kraft
- Sacramento State JR RHP Tanner Mendonca
- Cal State Bakersfield SR LHP Jeff McKenzie
- Cal State Bakersfield SR RHP Scott Brattvet
- Sacramento State SR RHP Brandon Creel
- Cal State Bakersfield rSR LHP Jonathan Montoya
- Louisiana Tech SR RHP Caleb Dudley
- San Jose State SR RHP Kyle Hassna
- Cal State Bakersfield rSR RHP Brandon Van Dam
Best prospect in the conference goes to Kyle Finnegan in a landslide. He’ll be a fun player to stack up against the rest of the country’s top pitchers – little bit of a big fish/little pond vibe going on with Finnegan heading into 2013. He’s predominantly a sinker/slider guy, but calling his two-seam fastball just any old sinker undersells how good a pitch it has become. I’d put his explosive two-seamer up against just about any pitch in the college game, thanks in large part to his much improved ability to command it and the ever-present downward movement. Grading out a good fastball isn’t exactly rocket science: there are other factors to consider, but if you simplify it to 1) velocity, 2) movement, and 3) command, then you give yourself a pretty decent starting point to evaluate. We’ve covered movement and comment, but what of Finnegan’s heat? For the most part, the 6-2, 180 pound righthander lives in the low-90s, but he can crank it up to the 95-97 range at the expense of some/most of the movement and command that makes it so effective in the first place. In addition to his four-seam, two-seam, and slider (a true low-80s offering that flashes plus when he can command it), Finnegan also throws an improved but still lacking low-70s change and a mid- to upper-80s cutter that is often mislabeled as the slider. His numbers were more good than great last season (7.33 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 3.67 FIP | 93.1 IP), but a big jump in performance is expected (by me, and plenty of other smarter people) in 2013.
I mentioned earlier how I’m curious about how Finnegan stacks up against pitchers from outside the WAC. We haven’t covered nearly enough conferences to get a full picture just yet, but we can still work with what we have. A really quick look at the pitchers I’ve ranked so far, plus a familiar name from the soon to be published Missouri Valley Conference preview coming later this week, would look a little something like: 1) Sean Manaea, 2) Jonathan Gray, 3) Andrew Mitchell, 4) Austin Kubitza, 5) Ben Lively, 6) Aaron Blair, 7) John Simms, 8) Corey Knebel, 9) Dillon Overton, and 10) Kyle Finnegan. I think the most direct comparison right now would be between Knebel and Finnegan: low-90s FB capable of hitting more, CU needs work, flashes plus breaking ball (CB for Knebel), not completely dissimilar builds (we’re stretching here as Knebel is bigger at 6-3, 200 pounds, but most top prospects are bigger than Finnegan), and similar 2012 production (Knebel’s 2012: 8.67 K/9 | 2.32 BB/9 | 3.04 FIP | 73.2 IP). No real conclusions here, just thinking out loud.
Finnegan isn’t the only pitching prospect of note in the WAC. In fact, you could make an argument that the top three prospects are pitchers this year. If you take my decisions on to bold or not to bold to heart, then that’s exactly the argument I’m making. Johansen has been known for years as the poster boy for hard throwing, big bodied, no control righthanded college pitching prospect. His fastball/slider is ready for a pro bullpen tomorrow, but it is hard to ignore his ongoing issues with control. I’ve also long been of the mind that he needs something slower to keep hitters guessing a little bit more, though I now think I’m good with him embracing hard, harder, hardest and just letting it fly as a reliever. There’s a drop in stuff after Johansen, but the Beck brothers (note: not really brothers) both command the requisite three average or better pitches needed to entertain the notion they can start in pro ball. Sharp and Peterson fall closer to the Johansen tree, as hard throwers with below-average present control.
The Cal State Bakersfield duo at the bottom both missed the 2012 season after Tommy John surgery. I include them not only because I always like the give a mention to players coming off of injury, but also because it is easy to like any pair of teammates that can be so similar (injury and…same team? I guess mostly just the injury…) and so very different: Montoya weighs in at 5-7, 155 pounds (fairly close to my height/weight, which I know is fascinating to everybody out there) while Van Dam measures up at 6-7, 235 pounds.
2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Conference USA
Going team by team was fun, but the college season is creeping up way too quickly for me to get as many teams done as I’d like. Instead, we’ll take a larger view and go conference by conference. The only thing that will slow me down at this point is incomplete or missing 2013 rosters…North Carolina, Louisville, South Carolina, Oregon State, you are all on notice. Congratulations to Conference USA for being the second conference I’ve seen with every school’s updated roster. So far so good on the Missouri Valley Conference, so as of now they are the leader for next conference up.
Here’s the key for the player lists:
- Bold = locks to be drafted
- Italics = definite maybes
- Underlined = possible risers
- Plain text = long shots
C
- Central Florida SR C Ryan Breen
- UAB SR C/1B Harry Clark
- Southern Mississippi rJR C Jared Bales
- Central Florida SR C Nick Carrillo
- Southern Mississippi SR C Chase Fowler
Lots of good college catchers, but not much in the way of exciting pro talent. Ryan Breen makes sense to me as a late-round senior sign as he’s a quality defender with a solid approach at the plate.
1B
- East Carolina JR 1B Chase McDonald
- Marshall SR 1B Nathan Gomez
- Rice JR 1B Michael Aquino
- Southern Mississippi SR 1B Blake Brown
- Houston SR 1B Casey Grayson
- Tulane SR 1B Tucker Oakley
- UAB SR 1B John Frost
He’s not in the same class as college slugger or pro prospect, but watching Chase McDonald takes me back to watching Preston Tucker hit for Florida. Like so many college first basemen, he’s in a tough spot where just about all of his future value as a ballplayer will come down to how much he hits. He has loads of raw power from the right side and I like his patient approach, but it’ll take a team falling in love with his bat to get him drafted high enough to forego a senior season at East Carolina. Nathan Gomez could overtake McDonald as the best first base prospect in the conference. Gomez has the edge in athleticism, defense, and hit tool, and his senior sign status could work to his advantage for budget-conscious clubs. Aquino is a better fit for a corner outfield spot, but it remains to be seen if he’s got the foot speed to make a position switch work. If so, his draft stock will get a nice bounce: his hit tool ranks up there among the best in the conference.
2B
- Houston JR 2B Frankie Ratcliff
- Rice SR 2B Christian Stringer
- Tulane SR 2B Brennan Middleton
- Rice SR 2B Michael Ratterree
I’m really excited to see what the toolsy Ratcliff can do given a full season of Division I action. All the reports on his attitude have been positive which has to be considered a really good sign for a guy once dismissed from the team at Miami. I’m especially curious about his bat/plate discipline, as I’m fairly certain he’ll be more than fine when it comes to speed, defense, and even pop. Neither Stringer nor Middleton have tools that will wow you, but both guys are coming off really productive junior seasons. I like Stringer just a bit more with the bat, but prefer Middleton, who can hold his own at shortstop when called upon, with the glove. Ratteree would be higher — maybe second — if I had confidence he was totally over the yips that have plagued him in the past. Aside from that, he’s always impressed with with his range and raw arm strength. Even if he doesn’t cut it at second base in the long run, his positional versatility should remain a strong point in his favor.
3B
- East Carolina JR 3B Zach Houchins
- Rice JR 3B Shane Hoelscher
- Marshall SR 3B Gray Stafford
- Central Florida SR 3B Chris Taladay
- Southern Mississippi SR 3B Travis Creel
- UAB SO 3B Chase Davis
I’m really excited to see what the toolsy Houchins can do given a full season of Division I action. The Louisburg JC transfer is a strong natural hitter with a plus arm and a good approach. He does occasionally get himself into trouble by attacking too early in the count and swinging at pitchers’ pitches. Stafford’s power and arm strength are intriguing, but a less than ideal hit tool and too many misadventures with the glove keep his stock down. Taladay is interesting thanks to his positional versatility (he can also catch and play corner OF), and Creel is worth a mention due to his excellent defense at third.
SS
- East Carolina JR SS Jack Reinheimer
- Tulane SR SS Garrett Cannizaro
- Southern Mississippi SR SS Isaac Rodriguez
- Memphis JR SS Ethan Gross
Reinheimer and Rodriguez are both standout defenders with something to prove as hitters heading into 2013. Cannizaro may be in line for a switch to third base professionally, a move that wouldn’t necessarily kill his value if he a) continues to show progress with the bat, and b) becomes a plus glove at the hot corner.
OF
- Tulane SR OF Brandon Boudreaux
- UAB JR OF Ivan DeJesus
- Marshall rSR OF Isaac Ballou
- Tulane SR OF Blake Crohan
- Tulane SR OF Sean Potkay
- UAB SO OF Jeff Schalk
- Central Florida SR OF Jeramy Matos
- Central Florida rSR OF Erik Hempe
- Houston JR OF Landon Appling
- UAB SR OF Ryan Ussery
- Tulane JR OF Andrew Garner
- Houston SR OF Jake Lueneberg
- Rice JR OF Brian Smith
- Memphis rJR OF Derrick Thomas
- Rice JR OF Keenan Cook
- UAB JR OF Ryan Prinzing
- East Carolina JR OF Ben Fultz
- Houston JR OF Jonathan Davis
- East Carolina SR OF Chris Gosik
- Memphis JR OF Ford Wilson
- East Carolina SR OF Phillip Clark
Conference USA more than holds its own in terms of prospect depth in the infield. That’s the good news. The less good news — also known as bad, but I’m trying to be positive here — is that there’s not much to get worked up about in the outfield. Brandon Boudreaux broke out in a big way last year, going from slugging .333 to .565 from 2011 to 2012. His plate discipline has always been sound — 60 BB/36 K over the past two combined seasons — but he’s now hammering mistakes in a way he didn’t before. All that and we haven’t mentioned his two strongest tools: plus speed and well above-average CF range. Ivan DeJesus brings a better ceiling, but, as so often has it, comes with greater risk. I’ve gotten firsthand reports on him that really bum me out, not because of his ability per se but because of the unfortunate lingering impact of his broken ankle of a couple years ago. DeJesus’ speed was once a carrying tool; now he’s closer to an average speed/average range CF than what he could have been. That said, reports on his physical talent remain largely positive: he’s routinely graded average or better in multiple areas (arm, hit tool, raw power) of his game. His approach, however, continues to limit his offensive production. His plate discipline (30 BB/94 K) has been almost the opposite of Boudreaux’s over the past year, except worse. Maybe his plus-plus speed could have had teams overlook his unrefined swing at everything style of hitting, but now the pressure will be on him to make more skill-based adjustments to his game. I wrote about Ballou before, so I’ll take the lazy man’s way out and just cut/paste: I’ve long been a fan of Ballou, so it should come as no surprise that I think he’s the closest thing to a position player lock as there is on the Marshall roster. He’s a really pesky hitter (.397 OBP in 2011, .450 in 2012) with an approach that fits well at the top of a lineup. He’s got enough speed and instincts to keep the “leadoff hitting CF” narrative alive, and there could be some yet unseen power in his sturdy 6-2, 200 pound frame.
A few rapid fire observations of the rest of the crew…Tulane’s outfield looks pretty strong in paper heading into 2013…the same could be said about Central Florida, especially if the powerful duo of Matos and Hempe can clean up their approaches a bit…if Landon Appling continues to show he can hold his own defensively as a catcher, his stock should climb…Ryan Ussery may or may not make it in pro ball, but he goes down as one of my favorite college players to follow over the years…I know little to nothing about Rice OF Brian Smith other than that he’s supposedly really really strong.
P
- Rice JR RHP Austin Kubitza
- Central Florida JR RHP Ben Lively
- Marshall JR RHP Aaron Blair
- Rice JR RHP John Simms
- Tulane rSO RHP Randy LeBlanc
- Tulane rSO RHP Tony Rizzotti
- Tulane rJR RHP Kyle McKenzie
- Memphis JR LHP Sam Moll
- UAB SO LHP Dylan Munger
- Rice rJR RHP Chase McDowell
- UAB rJR RHP Ruben Tresgallo
- Rice rSO RHP Connor Mason
- Memphis rSR RHP Heith Hatfield
- Tulane SR RHP Tyler Mapes
- Houston JR RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon
- Central Florida rFR RHP Ryan Meyer
- Central Florida rSO RHP Spencer Davis
- East Carolina JR RHP Drew Reynolds
- Southern Mississippi SR RHP Andrew Pierce
- Southern Mississippi rSO LHP Jake Drehoff
- Rice SR RHP Tyler Spurlin
- Southern Mississippi SR LHP Dillon Day
- East Carolina rSR LHP Tyler Joyner
- Southern Mississippi rJR RHP Cameron Giannini
- Marshall JR RHP Josh King
- East Carolina SR RHP Andy Smithmyer
- Central Florida rSR LHP Chris Matulis
- Central Florida SR LHP Brian Adkins
- Tulane SR RHP Alex Byo
- Memphis JR LHP Eric Schoenrock
- East Carolina rJR RHP Tanner Merritt
- Marshall SR LHP Wayland Moore
- East Carolina SR RHP Joseph Hughes
- UAB SR RHP Ben Bullard
- Central Florida SR LHP Jimmy Reed
- Rice SO RHP Evan Rutter
- Southern Mississippi JR RHP Sean Buchholz
- Southern Mississippi JR RHP Conor Fisk
- Tulane JR RHP Alex Facundus
- Memphis rJR RHP Jonathan Van Eaton
- Tulane JR LHP Brady Wilson
- Houston JR RHP Chase Wellbrock
- Houston SR LHP Matt Hernandez
- UAB JR RHP Chase Mallard
- Marshall rJR RHP Ryan Hopkins
- Central Florida JR RHP Danny Davis
- Memphis JR RHP Jon Reed
- Memphis JR LHP Alex Gunn
- Houston SR RHP Austin Pruitt
- Memphis rSR LHP Michael Wills
- Tulane SR LHP David Napoli
- Southern Mississippi JR RHP Boomer Scarborbough
- Memphis rSR RHP Clayton Gant
- Rice SR RHP Jeremy Fant
If Austin Kubitza and John Simms are both healthy throughout the spring, they’ll rank among college baseball’s top 1-2 pitching punches. Kubitza receives most of the accolades — heck, he’s first here after all — but Simms (88-92 FB with big movement, flashes of good mid-70s curve, and nasty splitter) is no slouch. Ben Lively is due for a monster junior season thanks in large part to a fastball that he has learned to command better and better every year. Guys with his frame (6-4, 200 pounds), fastball (great command of 88-93 heat), and multiple usable breaking balls (SL with cutter action and softer mid-70s CB) are fun to watch. At his best, Randy LeBlanc (95 peak FB, flashes above-average CU and CB with more upside than that) has a strong case for the top arm in the conference. Unfortunately, he’s yet to show the durability and command teams look for when monitoring a guy coming off of Tommy John surgery. Now that he’s a full season behind it, watch out. Fellow Tulane redshirt sophomore Tony Rizzotti, a TCU transfer, has a potent FB/SL combination when on. I’m curious to see where Sam Moll’s control is at in 2013: scouting reports are quite favorable, but results (4.05 BB/9 last season) leave something to be desired.
The current middle class of this pitching group offers a lot to like. There are a lot of transfers (Daniel Ponce de Leon and Spencer Davis) and elbow surgery survivors (Chase McDowell and Connor Mason) with plenty to prove in 2013. The number of hard throwers is also impressive. McKenzie, Tresgallo, Ponce de Leon, and Giannini have all hit the mid-90s at one point or another. I’ll be keeping tabs on Tyler Joyner, a quality arm that is unfortunately out of commission in this his last season of college eligibility. Tommy John surgery may have robbed him of his final year of college ball, but I could still see a pro club that has seen him enough of the years giving him a shot late on draft day.
I made the error of omitting four members of the Marshall pitching staff in the original posting. Thanks to Craig for pointing it out to me in the comments. The big name that was skipped over is RHP Aaron Blair. Smarter people than I have him as clearly the best prospect out of this bunch and I certainly reserve the right to change my mind between now and when final rankings come out in about six months, but, for now, I ‘m intrigued enough by the upside of Kubitza (I still see him as the future star I saw firsthand when he was in high school, I guess) and Lively (old comps die hard: I remember reading a Jeff Samardzija comp on him that has always stuck with me) — and for a brief moment Simms, before moving Blair above him — to rank Blair any higher. Of the top tier group, I do think it is fairly evident that Blair has the highest floor, which definitely counts for something. It does seem like there has been a recent uptick of guys who fit his profile seeing jumps in stuff and performance during their junior seasons. I mention Matt Barnes below, but I also get a little bit of a Chris Stratton vibe from at similar points of development. If I could predict he’d go in either of those directions, I’d likely be driving something a little more stylish than a Kia Rio. Realizing I can’t make such assumptions, I hedged my bet and put him third, where at least he’s ahead of another big name in Simms. Anyway, here’s what I wrote on Blair earlier this year:
It may not be the most descriptive adjective around, but the word “good” can be found throughout Blair’s scouting notes in my Word doc: good command of a 87-92 FB (93 peak) with good sink; good 74-78 CB; 81-85 CU thrown with good looking arm action;good, sturdy frame (6-5, 220 pounds); good numbers (8.42 K/9 in 2011, 9.04 K/9 and 3.37 FIP in 2012). If you didn’t know any better, you’d think Blair is a pretty darn good prospect, right? At this moment, he looks like a really strong bet to keep progressing until settling into his eventual role as big league mid-rotation starting pitcher. He’s a safe — well, as safe as any inherently risky amateur prospect can be — prospect, not a sexy one. Good across the board, neither great nor lacking in any one area. I liken him to a sturdier version of former Long Beach State and current Milwaukee Brewer RHP Drew Gagnon, a third round pick back in 2011. His profile also reminds me a little bit of Matt Barnes before Barnes velocity spike. I’m not enough of a scout (or a scout at all, really) to place odds on Blair experiencing a similar increase in stuff — I’m not sure any scout can actually predict this stuff, short of noticing a body desperately in need of better strength and conditioning and/or a major mechanical overhaul — but recognizing the possibility helps me cover myself just in case. Anyway, Blair looks like a good starting pitching prospect with the chance to go pretty good in this June’s draft. Good pitcher, good analysis.
2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big 12
Going team by team was fun, but the college season is creeping up way too quickly for me to get as many teams done as I’d like. Instead, we’ll take a larger view and go conference by conference. The only thing that will slow me down at this point is incomplete or missing 2013 rosters…North Carolina, Louisville, South Carolina, Oregon State, you are all on notice. Congratulations to the Big 12 for being the first conference I’ve seen with every school’s updated roster. So far so good on the Big 10, so as of now they are the leader for next conference up.
Oh yeah, I’ve also started messing around with a 2013 MLB Draft Mock Draft. Not sure it’ll ever see the light of day, but at least it is started. We’ll see if my guilt over not doing a mock for two years overtakes my shallow desire for sweet sweet Google aided page views. Back to the Big 12…
Here’s the key for the player lists:
- Bold = locks to be drafted
- Italics = definite maybes
- Underlined = possible risers
- Plain text = long shots
I included a few relevant comments when I could, but I’m happy to expand on the players from any Big 12 team if anybody is interested. Here we go…
C
- Texas JR C Jacob Felts
- Baylor SR C Nathan Orf
- Kansas JR C Kai’ana Eldredge
- Texas Christian JR C Kyle Bacak
- Oklahoma State rJR C Rick Stover
- Oklahoma State JR C Tyler Palmer
- Kansas State rJR C Blair DeBord
- Oklahoma JR C Jake Smith
- Oklahoma State SR C Victor Romero
Felts is the marquee name and the only stone cold mortal lock to get drafted in 2013. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to profile as much more than a quality backup backstop at the pro level, but a backup big league projection beats the heck out of a no big league projection at all. Orf warrants a mention as the best returning Big 12 hitting catcher; he hit a park/schedule adjusted .303/.456/.389 in 234 AB last year. Eldredge ranks second only to Felts in name value — like Felts he was a highly regarded prep prospect back in the day — and offers similar professional upside. I’ve always been fond of athletic catchers, so my longstanding appreciation for Eldredge’s game should come as no shock. Time at both 2B and SS have kept his defense behind the plate raw, but his arm and agility give him a strong enough defensive foundation to build on. The next step will be figuring things out as a hitter: his .178/.245/.199 line last season would disqualify him as a prospect were it not for the belief that he’s significantly better than he’s shown. Bacak, Stover, and Palmer are all really good defensive players with exceptional throwing arms. If any of the three bust out with the bat, then you have to think draft consideration would quickly follow.
1B
- Texas SR 1B Landon Steinhagen
- Kansas SR 1B Alex DeLeon
- West Virginia JR 1B Ryan McBroom
- Texas Tech rSR 1B Scott LeJeune
- Oklahoma State JR 1B Tanner Krietemeier
- Oklahoma State SO 1B Wes Jones
No huge surprise, but there isn’t much in the way of actual first base prospects in this year’s Big 12 class. Numbers aren’t everything, of course, but it is fairly telling that the highest park/schedule adjusted 2012 slugging mark out of this group comes in at a paltry (by 1B standards) .410. Steinhagen, who can also play some corner OF, has more power than he’s shown, but he’s still less than a 50/50 bet to get drafted. Same could be said for DeLeon, after substituting catcher for corner OF. McBroom, he of the pace-setting .273/.349/.410 line, offers up some promise. I’m barely literate, so correct me if I’m wrong, but do McBroom and LeJeune rhyme? That would be a fun coincidence.
2B
- Kansas State JR 2B Ross Kivett
- Texas Christian SR 2B Josh Gonzales
- Baylor rJR 2B Lawton Langford
- Texas Christian JR 2B Brett Johnson
- Baylor SR 2B Steve DalPorto
Rare to find a true second base prospect worth getting excited about — most 2B are made and not born, after all — but there are a few moderately interesting Big 12 middle infielders of note. The one thing that stands out across the board is the impressive plate discipline shown by each member of this group. The player strongest in this area, Ross Kivett, just so happens to be my favorite. Kivett’s a really good runner, both in terms of speed and smarts, with just enough pop that I think his bat will keep from being a zero professionally. Gonzales is also a speedster; his steadier glove and senior sign status could help him overtake Kivett before the end of the year. Langford is a rock solid college player who defends the heck out of his position. Lack of defensive versatility hurts just about every guy on the list; the zero sum positional game is one of the reasons why 2B is such a tough position to find viable prospects.
3B
- Texas JR 3B Erich Weiss
- Texas Tech JR 3B Jake Barrios
- Texas Christian rSR 3B Jantzen Witte
- Texas JR 3B Madison Carter
- Baylor SR 3B/OF Cal Towey
- Texas Christian rSR 3B Davy Wright
- Kansas State rJR 3B RJ Santigate
- Oklahoma SR 3B Garrett Carey
- Baylor SR 3B Jake Miller
The top three names are all exciting to me for various reasons. Weiss is criminally underrated for reasons I’m not quite sure I understand. Again, numbers don’t always tell the whole story when scouting, but compare these two players last two seasons (park/schedule adjusted):
Player A
2011: .351/.462/.577 – 51 BB/31 K – 248 AB
2012: .341/.417/.471 – 22 BB/23 K – 170 AB – 1/3 SB)
Player B
2011: .384/.514/.558 – 55 BB/36 K – 224 AB
2012: .409/.481/.635 – 23 BB/41 K – 203 AB – 10/12 SB
Those 2011’s are eerily similar, right? There’s some separation in 2012: Player A strikes out less, steals fewer bases, and hits for less power. All things being equal, as much as I love the slightly better walk rate of Player A, I’d have to go Player B on the strength of his numbers alone. Player B is Erich Weiss, Player A is everybody’s first round pick Colin Moran. Now even after all that, I’d still take Moran. The UNC junior is a much better defender at third, and, yeah, more patient at the plate, a big plus for me always. I know some have knocked Weiss’ swing and believe he’s in for a major revamp at the professional level. I can’t say I agree, but it is at least a legitimate argument for Moran’s bat — he could wake up in the middle of the night and hit line drives with his swing — over Weiss’. Relative strengths of bats aside, it ultimately comes down to this fairly simple observation: the possibility that Weiss is a corner outfielder in the pros looms much more likely than in the case of Moran. I really, really want a chance to see Texas this year, so hopefully I’ll learn some firsthand knowledge about Weiss’ defense at the hot corner. Failing that, I’ll keep my ear to the ground for any mention at all about his defensive progress. Big, underrated draft story line to watch this spring. While everybody is watching San Diego’s Kris Bryant, a player with a somewhat similar defensive forecast, I’ll be focused on Weiss. Well, Weiss and Bryant. And a few hundred others. I enjoy multi-tasking.
Barrios, the second name on the list, has been on the draft radar for years. He’s certainly got a lot of life experience out of his travels — from LSU to juco ball in Kansas (Seward County) and now settling in at Texas Tech — but the lack of consistent playing time leaves him something of a mystery as a prospect. I like his defensive tools, power upside, and positional versatility can also play 2B and SS). Nice player. One note on Barrios that I may only find interesting: he’s shrunk since high school. Not literally, of course, but rather in how his height and weight have appeared through the years. My oldest notes on him had him at 6-3, 200 pounds and growing. Texas Tech currently lists him at 6-0, 200 pounds. Wonder where those three inches went…
The third and final exciting name belongs to Jantzen Witte. I actually used the word “love” twice in my notes on Witte, first when talking about his defense and again when referencing his approach to hitting. His part/schedule adjusted numbers have been stellar the past two years (.370/.434/.516 in 2011 and .364/.419/.500 in 2012) though there are still some around the game who question whether or not he’ll hit enough to profile as a regular at third. I’ll admit to never really associating Witte’s name with starting caliber big league player in my mind, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have it in him. I’m pulling these numbers out of thin air here, but I’d be quite pleased if my favorite team targeted him as an affordable senior sign prospect between rounds six and ten. There are some big college names later in the ranks as the Big 12 is stacked with veteran third basemen this year. Towey’s defensive versatility makes him the most draftable at present, though arguments could be made for Santigate, Carey, and Miller, above-average defensive players all. As with the catchers profiled above, if any one of those three get the bat going, draft day could get interesting in a hurry.
SS
- Texas Christian SO SS Derek Odell
- Texas Christian JR SS Paul Hendrix
- Oklahoma SR SS Jack Mayfield
- Texas JR SS Alex Silver
- Oklahoma JR SS Hector Lorenzana
- Texas JR SS Ty Marlow
- Kansas SR SS Kevin Kuntz
I’m not quite sure how TCU’s opening day lineup will shake out, but I do know there is some envious depth found up and down the roster. So far we have two redshirt-seniors on the 3B list, two worthwhile 2B prospects, and now two quality shortstops. I’m not positive either player will actually stick at shortstop, but I’ll give both Horned Frogs the benefit of the doubt for now. Odell’s bat has a chance of playing at 3B if his lack of foot speed necessitates a switch. Hendrix could probably due the same, thanks to impressive power to the gaps, above-average athleticism, and a strong arm. Mayfield is an intriguing two-way talent whom I prefer as a middle infielder. His plus athleticism, above-average speed, and quick hands give him the look of a future utility option. There’s little impact potential within the group, but Odell’s tool set, impressive freshman season (.322/.383/.471 in 174 AB), and last name that makes me nostalgic for my old Apple IIGS all help make him the current leader of the pack.
OF
- Kansas State JR OF Jared King
- Texas JR OF Mark Payton
- Texas rJR OF Matt Moynihan
- Oklahoma SR OF Max White
- Oklahoma State JR OF Aaron Cornell
- Texas rJR OF Cohl Walla
- Kansas State SR OF Tanner Witt
- Texas Christian rSO OF Axel Johnson
- Kansas SO OF Michael Suiter
- West Virginia SR OF Brady Wilson
- West Virginia rJR OF Matt Frazer
- Texas JR OF Weston Hall
- Texas Tech rJR OF Devon Conley
- Kansas JR OF Tucker Tharp
- Oklahoma State SR OF Jarrett Higgins
- Oklahoma State SR OF Trey Whaley
- Texas Tech SR OF Brennan Moore
- Oklahoma rSO OF Colt Bickerstaff
- West Virginia rSR OF Chris Rasky
I don’t want to downplay how strong a prospect Jared King is (uses whole field extremely well, good hit tool and power upside, like him but don’t love him due to range/arm that likely limits him to LF), but the real headliner from this group of outfield prospects is the current collection of flycatchers in Austin. I’d happily pay more money than a broke 20something with lousy student loans ought to just to watch the trio of Mark Payton, Matt Moynihan, and Cohl Walla chase down flyballs. Injuries and transfer rules have kept the three from playing much together — not sure they’ve ever all been in the same outfield, but I’m too lazy to check — but a new year brings hope that the three will finally take the field as a unit. Payton is the safest prospect of the three, a legitimate plus to plus-plus runner with clear CF range, sneaky pop, and a balanced approach at the plate. He’s also the only one of the three who can say has been on the field enough to put up meaningful numbers (.370/.461/.567 with 8/13 SB) over the past calendar year. After transfers from both San Diego and Orange Coast CC, Moynihan has now approached mythical creature status for me: he’s like the Slender Man of the college baseball world. When he has played, he’s shown tremendous speed and athleticism with an approach to hitting well suited for the top of a lineup. Walla missed the 2012 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL. Before the injury he had speed and CF range that rivaled both Payton and Moynihan, at one point earning defensive comps to former Longhorns CF Drew Stubbs. At 100% a case could be made for Walla as the most intriguing of the three outfielders, thanks in large part to having the most raw power and arm strength of the group. Unfortunately there’s no telling how the injury will impact his game. Additionally, the lack of collegiate production (.250/.343/.313 in 144 swing at everything in 144 AB in 2011) can’t wholly be ignored.
King and the Texas trio aren’t the only Big 12 outfielders worth knowing for 2013. Max White and Tanner Witt have both hit enough in the past that you can project them as potential backup outfielders at the next level. That alone would be great, but there’s no need to stop simply at backup outfielder: both guys have played extensively at other positions — White can play anywhere but C and SS, Witt has experience at both 2B and SS — over the years. I admittedly didn’t know much about Witt just a few days ago, but his positional versatility, speed, and plate discipline (41 BB/20 K last year) have my attention. Cornell, Johnson, and Suiter have all flashed big league tools at times, but have yet to put it together over an extended stretch of time.
P
- Oklahoma JR RHP Jonathan Gray
- Texas Christian JR RHP Andrew Mitchell
- Texas JR RHP Corey Knebel
- Oklahoma JR LHP Dillon Overton
- Texas Christian rSO RHP Trey Teakell
- Oklahoma State rJR RHP/OF Mark Robinette
- Oklahoma JR LHP Billy Waltrip
- Texas JR RHP Nathan Thornhill
- Texas Tech JR RHP Trey Masek
- Kansas SR RHP Tanner Poppe
- Oklahoma State SR RHP Randy McCurry
- Texas rJR RHP Josh Urban
- Baylor JR RHP Dillon Newman
- Baylor JR RHP Trae Davis
- Baylor rSR RHP Max Garner
- Oklahoma State rSO RHP Jason Hursh
- Texas Christian JR RHP Stefan Crichton
- Kansas JR RHP Frank Duncan
- Baylor JR RHP Miles Landry
- Oklahoma JR RHP Kyle Hayes
- Baylor SR RHP Kolt Browder
- Kansas State JR LHP Gerardo Esquivel
- Texas JR LHP Kirby Bellow
- Texas Christian JR LHP Trevor Seidenberger
- Baylor SR LHP Crayton Bare
- Baylor JR LHP Brad Kuntz
- Texas Christian JR RHP Nick Frey
- Texas JR RHP Justin Peters
- Kansas State JR LHP Jared Moore
- Kansas rSR RHP Thomas Taylor
- Texas Christian SR RHP Justin Scharf
- Oklahoma SR LHP Jake Fisher
- Texas Tech JR LHP Andre Wheeler
- West Virginia JR RHP Ryan Tezak
- Oklahoma JR LHP Ethan Carnes
- Kansas State SR LHP Joe Flattery
- Oklahoma JR RHP Kindle Ladd
- Oklahoma State JR RHP Vince Wheeland
- Kansas State rSO LHP/1B Shane Conlon
- West Virginia SR RHP Dan Dierdorff
- West Virginia rSO LHP Harrison Musgrave
- West Virginia rJR LHP Marshall Thompson
- West Virginia JR RHP Josh Harlow
- Oklahoma State rSO LHP Tyler Nurdin
- Kansas State SO RHP Nate Williams
- West Virginia JR LHP Zach Bargeron
- West Virginia JR RHP Corey Walter
I generally feel that making early proclamations on pitchers ends badly for the prognosticator. Maybe it’s because pitchers are inherently fickle beasts. Maybe it’s because sudden jumps in stuff can happen with changes in role and/or mechanics once that special something clicks. Maybe it’s because I don’t know nearly as much as I think I do about baseball. In any event, this year’s group of Big 12 pitchers is particularly confounding. The top five arms could all be switched around and I wouldn’t put up a fight. In fact, I juggled them around a few times myself just before hitting the Publish button.
After a good bit of internal debate, I leapfrogged Jonathan Gray over Andrew Mitchell for the top spot. Gray is a big, strong righthanded pitcher who can show up to four plus pitches on any given day. He’s good. Mitchell reminds me a little bit of Arkansas RHP Nolan Sanburn at this same point last year. He has the three-pitch mix needed to make it as a starting pitcher in pro ball. That’s a role he can potentially excel in, but I do worry some about his diminished fastball velocity as a starter. Corey Knebel earned the rare and beautiful FAVORITE distinction in my notes after his freshman season at Texas. Nothing since then has made me like him any less: good heat (91-94), nasty yet underutilized CB, good sinker. His changeup still needs work, but there’s a lot to like. Dillon Overton had a sensational 2012 season (9.68 K/9 | 1.69 BB/9 | 3.16 FIP | 122.2 IP) that got a little bit lost in the upperclassman 2012 draft shuffle. It’s now his turn to step out of Andrew Heaney’s shadow and get his due in 2013. Trey Teakell’s buzz word this spring will be projection. He’s already got a diverse four-pitch mix going for him, so teams will be excited to see if his obvious athleticism, easy velocity, and frame with ample room to grow combine to help him round into something truly great.
There are plenty of future relievers of note who should hear their names called on draft day. Randy McCurry has long been a favorite as an athletic two-way talent capable of reaching the mid-90s while flashing a plus breaking ball. Josh Urban can also hit the mid-90s, but below-average command and control has held him back to this point. Jason Hursh’s (another FAVORITE) return from Tommy John surgery didn’t quite go as planned last spring, but his raw stuff (97-98 peak FB with explosive movement down in zone, flashes above-average CB) rivals that of any pitcher in the conference when on. Stefan Crichton might be viewed as a starter for some, and rightfully so, but I like him best as a sinker/slider reliever at the next level. The best mix of present stuff, production, and projection from the next talent level down probably belongs to either Frank Duncan (well-rounded four-pitch mix, 8.41 K/9 last year, sturdy 6-4, 200 pound frame) or Kolt Browder (low-90s heat, occasional plus breaking ball, sweet baseball name). Kyle Hayes hasn’t yet had the opportunity to do it under the bright lights of college baseball, but the San Diego State and Howard JC transfer is one to watch. The fastest fastball I have on any of the underlined guys is 90 MPH, so you know they all find find ways with command, movement, and at least one above-average offspeed pitch apiece. There’s some solid bullpen upside there, hence the bonus points awarded for the lefties.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Virginia Tech Hokies
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. JR 3B Chad Pinder
2. rJR OF Tyler Horan
3. JR RHP Brad Markey
4. JR LHP Eddie Campbell
5. SR RHP Joe Mantiply
For the millionth time, I’m not a college baseball expert. I don’t really know what teams are good and what teams will disappoint, and, to be honest, I don’t particularly care. I like prospects. For that reason, I like Virginia Tech. They have good prospects. Now common sense leads me to believe that, with some exceptions teams with good prospects, especially veteran prospects, tend to fare fairly well during the college baseball season. So it is my opinion as a newfound college baseball expert that Virginia Tech is going to be pretty good this year: seven legit position player prospects (plus speedy FR OF Saige Jenco) and a pitching staff with a half-dozen upperclassmen worth knowing. Let’s start with the best of those prospects.
It is way too early to start assigning draft grades, so take the following with a jumbo sized chunk of salt: if you’re a fan of a team in need of a third baseman of the future, then Chad Pinder is as good a non-first round name to follow as any. If my favorite team misses out on and/or goes a different direction on, say, Colin Moran in the mid-first, then I’d be more than happy with Pinder being the next man up within the round two to five range. Pinder’s defense at third is legitimately exciting to watch. He has really quick feet, a strong arm, and great instincts on the left side of the infield. In a pinch, I’d have no problem playing him up the middle at short, a la a young Ryan Zimmerman. As a hitter, his power is right where you want it for a corner infielder (20+ home run upside) and he’s shown an ability to make critical adjustments game to game as well as pitch to pitch. The big quibble would be his plate discipline — 15 BB/40 K last season — but I think that’s more of a byproduct of how he was pitched in 2012. Tyler Horan has more power, but not quite as strong a hit tool. He also is a corner outfielder only, potentially limited to left field, so the margin of error for his stick is more pronounced. The power is enticing enough that he’ll rightfully get drafted with the thought he’ll someday hold down an everyday outfield spot.
You can put the three Virginia Tech pitchers listed above in any order and I couldn’t find much to argue. I liked Markey a lot last year — he was my 446th overall draft prospect, after all — and I see no reason why I should turn on him now. The well-traveled junior throws three pitches for strikes (88-92 FB, 93 peak with a good CB and average CU). Campbell impressed on the Cape thanks to his crafty lefty repertoire that includes an upper-80s to low-90s FB (92 peak) and above-average curve. I’m more bearish on him than most, due to stuff that doesn’t blow me away and too frequent lapses in control. Joe Mantiply should be a solid senior sign thanks to a fastball between 88-92 fastball (notice a trend?), pro size (6-4, 215 pounds), and a pair of usable offspeed pitches.
rSR OF Andrew Rash and rJR C Chad Morgan are both veterans of the draft process, so the stakes ought to be pretty clear at this point. Rash’s huge righthanded power is enough for me to take a chance on him late in the draft, but I could see why teams may be hesitant to pull the trigger on a guy with contact issues and an inconsistent approach. He deserves credit for working himself into a playable right fielder. Questions about Morgan’s bat are even bigger – I had him pegged as the next great early round ACC catcher a few years back, but his game has badly stagnated. I think he can still defend the position with the best of them — at least on the college level — but that’s fairly self-evident by now. What scouts will be focusing in on this spring will be his swing – I’ve heard it has been modified and shortened since last season. On talent alone, both guys should be drafted. We’ll see if their production matches the hype in a few months.
SR RHP Jake Joyce has consistently performed out of the Virginia Tech bullpen (9.96 K/9 in 2011, 11.16 K/9 last year), so it wouldn’t be a shock to see a club that emphasizes prior production giving him a look this spring. Same could be said about SR RHP Tanner McIntyre, a pitcher who has done the job when called upon (10.16 K/9 last year) but still could be on the outside looking in come June if teams decide they can’t look past lack of size (5-9, 170 pounds) and pedestrian (by pro standards) stuff. You can go ahead and put 5-9, 175 pound SR RHP Clark Labitan in the same category.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. SO C/OF Mark Zagunis
2. SO 1B/OF Sean Keselica
Mark Zagunis’ upside behind the plate has me all excited. I know, I know…I feel for a young Virginia Tech catcher not that long ago, (see above) and that hasn’t worked out all that well, but this time is different. Zagunis is a great athlete coming off a really impressive freshman season (.344/.432/.513) who can run, hit, and flash some serious power. His defense is what will have to be closely monitored, but I’m a believer. It’s not a comp because I’ve yet to see Zagunis in person (that changes this year, thankfully), but the scouting reports give off a little bit of a Josh Elander vibe. Keselica isn’t quite on the same level for me, but I know some who follow the Hokies more extensively than I disagree with that assessment. A little bit down the prospect line are SO 1B Brendon Hayden and SO 2B/SS Alex Perez. Hayden has size, strength, and power. Perez has a patient approach and good defensive tools. Both guys should be in the 2014 mix after building on their solid freshman seasons this spring.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Marshall Thundering Herd
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. JR RHP Aaron Blair
2. rSR OF Isaac Ballou
3. SR 1B Nathan Gomez
4. SR 3B/OF Gray Stafford
I have to imagine it is nice playing for a school that isn’t necessarily a traditional baseball power during the same stretch as a hotly scouted prospect in his draft year. Scouts will beat a path to Huntington, West Virginia all year long to see potential first round pick Aaron Blair. In the process, chances are they’ll see a handful of interesting draft prospects that are more than worthy of their time.
Joining Blair on the Thundering Herd pitching staff will be JR RHP Josh King, SR LHP Wayland Moore, and rJR RHP Ryan Hopkins. King, whose numbers intrigue me even though I don’t know much about him from a scouting standpoint, is probably the best draft prospect of the bunch, but I’d call them all long shots at this juncture. Draft prospects aside, the Marshall staff figures to be supported just fine by a strong, veteran core of returning hitters. It’ll be fun to see if any of Marshall’s returning big three bats – rSR OF Isaac Ballou, SR 1B Nathan Gomez, and SR 3B/OF Gray Stafford – emerge as sure-fire June draft picks. All are clearly talented enough to warrant consideration, but none are stone cold mortal locks. I’ve long been a fan of Ballou, so it should come as no surprise that I think he’s the closest thing to a position player lock as there is on the Marshall roster. He’s a really pesky hitter (.397 OBP in 2011, .450 in 2012) with an approach that fits well at the top of a lineup. He’s got enough speed and instincts to keep the “leadoff hitting CF” narrative alive, and there could be some yet unseen power in his sturdy 6-2, 200 pound frame. I like simplicity in my notes, so I can admit to being drawn to Gomez’ short and sweet entry: “he can really swing it.” All the more impressive is the fact that note came about after his disappointing sophomore season (.252/.384/.387) and not his improved junior year (.320/.414/.447). Like Ballou, there are some physical indicators that point to more power to come, but it is now or never for both guys, at least at the amateur level. Gomez should still get some late-round consideration even if he remains a gap power, good approach, smooth defender kind of player. A little more over the fence pop would be icing on the cake. Stafford stands out as perhaps the toolsiest of the senior trio. He has an interesting blend of power, speed, and plus arm strength that give him the look and feel of a professional ballplayer. Unfortunately, he’s the least likely of the three to reach his ultimate ceiling. Unlike Ballou and Gomez, Stafford’s approach at the plate is a total mess. His defense is also a bit of a question mark going forward, as there is some debate on whether or not his long-term home is third base or right field.
We buried the lede a bit here by not talking about Blair as much as his prospect status warrants. It may not be the most descriptive adjective around, but the word “good” can be found throughout Blair’s scouting notes in my Word doc: good command of a 87-92 FB (93 peak) with good sink; good 74-78 CB; 81-85 CU thrown with good looking arm action; good, sturdy frame (6-5, 220 pounds); good numbers (8.42 K/9 in 2011, 9.04 K/9 and 3.37 FIP in 2012). If you didn’t know any better, you’d think Blair is a pretty darn good prospect, right? At this moment, he looks like a really strong bet to keep progressing until settling into his eventual role as big league mid-rotation starting pitcher. He’s a safe — well, as safe as any inherently risky amateur prospect can be — prospect, not a sexy one. Good across the board, neither great nor lacking in any one area. I liken him to a sturdier version of former Long Beach State and current Milwaukee Brewer RHP Drew Gagnon, a third round pick back in 2011. His profile also reminds me a little bit of Matt Barnes before Barnes velocity spike. I’m not enough of a scout (or a scout at all, really) to place odds on Blair experiencing a similar increase in stuff — I’m not sure any scout can actually predict this stuff, short of noticing a body desperately in need of better strength and conditioning and/or a major mechanical overhaul — but recognizing the possibility helps me cover myself just in case. Anyway, Blair looks like a good starting pitching prospect with the chance to go pretty good in this June’s draft. Good pitcher, good analysis.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. FR RHP Michael Taylor
Marshall’s best pro prospect hasn’t officially stepped on the field yet. Incoming freshman RHP Michael Taylor, eligible for the draft next year due to his 3/3/93 birthdate, is like Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, and Byron Leftwitch all rolled into one. Hyperbole aside, he’s a legitimate early round pick in 2014 with the chance to contribute immediately this spring. He has three pitches that all could be average or better in time: 88-92 FB (94 peak), good low-70s CB, and raw but promising low-80s CU. Another 2014 to watch is light-hitting, steady fielding middle infielder Andrew Dundon. The sophomore 2B/SS held his own at the plate last year (.270/.371/.305) and could keep moving in the direction as a potential utility infielder if he keeps doing what he does best. I also wouldn’t sleep on SO RHP Lance Elder: good size, decent freshman showing, and a cool baseball name.
Finally, and mostly because I’m a sick person who just can’t help himself, a quick note on the really promising pitching-heavy crop of 2015 talent brought in by Jeff Waggoner. Taylor was the big get, but LHP Micah Dunn, FR RHP Brandyn Sittinger, and FR LHP Zach Shockley all have the talent to be drafted in three years. Sittinger’s youth and quick arm will get him looks, and Shockley’s mature three-pitch mix ought to get him some innings right off the bat. Marshall reloaded at catcher, a traditionally strong spot at Marshall thanks to years of Victor Gomez and Thor Meeks, with a pair of highly regarded transfers, but there’s a chance that all four freshman pitchers could wind up throwing to fellow frosh David Diaz-Fernandez sooner rather than later. Future looks good at Marshall.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Cal State Northridge Matadors
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. rSO RHP Kyle Ferramola
2. JR OF Miles Williams
In my perfect world I’d have the time and patience to do a draft preview for every college team in the country. Life in this perfect world would be better because I could justify the time spent reviewing teams that have no future big league players. Even worse are the teams that seem 50/50 at best when it comes to whether or not there is even a draftable talent on hand. As it is, forty minutes of my daily allowance of baseball draft website time, time that could have been spent in a million other more relevant, marketable (mock draft!) ways, has now been lost researching and writing about Cal State Northridge. I’m quite happy with the decision, but that’s because I’m a crazy person who a) is a self-proclaimed completest (ignore my shoddy track record finishing what I start, please), and b) cares just as much about the prospects at the Cal State Northridges of the world as I do at any traditional SEC or Big 12 powerhouse. Knowing going in that the only people who will care enough about what I’ve written are the fellow draft-obsessed and the friends/family members of players on the team gives me comfort.
JR RHP Harley Holt is a really sound college pitcher known for his excellent pitchability and above-average command. He likely lacks the strikeout stuff – upper-80s FB, no true go-to secondary offering – to warrant much draft consideration. rSO RHP Kyle Ferramola, a Washington transfer, has a really quick arm (95-96 peak) and has flashed a plus breaking ball in the past. If his command comes around and/or he refines a third pitch, preferably something even more offspeed, then he could get looks as a potential starting pitcher. If not, he has enough arm talent to become a useful bullpen piece down the line. The Cal State Northridge offense will be carried by a veteran outfield headlined by their best 2013 position player prospect JR OF Miles Williams. I think Williams will likely be the Matadors’ best 2014 position player prospect after going undrafted this June, but his combination of pop and arm strength may be enough to tempt a team if he puts together a big junior campaign. I see a corner outfielder with decent tools and an approach that needs a lot of work. He’s still the pick as the most likely Matador bat to get drafted this June, but senior sign fits his profile a lot better in my view.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. SO RHP Jordan Johnson
There’s no 2014 prospect that currently jumps off the page, but that doesn’t mean Cal State Northridge doesn’t have a few intriguing names to watch, at least on the college stage. Relatively unproven hard throwers Jordan Johnson and Kyle Ferramola, both sophomore righthanders, make up for their lack of command and overall polish with mid-90s heat, promising breaking stuff, and ample athleticism. Both guys very clearly have professional upside, but it will take time for them to get acclimated – or re-acclimated in the case of Ferramola, a Washington transfer — to college ball. [EDIT: After a little bit more digging, it appears that Ferramola is draft-eligible in 2013. I added him to the list above.] rFR RHP Louis Cohen and SO RHP Brandon Warner bring more experience than most second-year college pitchers (close to 100 IP last year combined), but neither currently has the stuff to help them separate from the herd. SO LHP Jerry Keel deserves mention both for his work eating innings as a freshman (91.1 IP in 2012) and for his [insert obvious joke here] as he tips in the scales at 6-6, 280 pounds. He’s worth watching.
(Ed. Note: I received an email asking about RHP Shay Maltese. I’m very much an outsider, so most of my roster information comes from surfing official team websites and whatever random newspaper clippings I can Google my way towards. As far as I can tell, Maltese is currently on Cal State Stanislaus’ 2013 roster. I know Perfect Game has Maltese listed on Northridge’s squad, so it could very well be that the more plugged-in staffers there know something I don’t. It’s worth noting that Cal State Northridge’s team page lists only returning players on the Fall roster, i.e. there are no freshman or transfers listed. If Maltese is a Matador this spring, you can put him at the top of the 2013 draft list, narrowly beating out a very similarly talented prospect in Ferramola.)
2013 MLB Draft Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. SR OF/2B Brady Wilson
2. rJR OF Matt Frazer
West Virginia has some work to do if they want to field a competitive program in the Big 12. That’s hardly a bold statement, but I feel, after looking over the prospects on this current WVU squad’s roster, it needed to be said. The cupboard isn’t necessarily bare, but we’ve eaten all the Kraft Macaroni & Cheese and Cocoa Pebbles and are left with trying to figure out what recipe consists of breadcrumbs, vanilla pudding mix, and the free sample of 5-hour energy that has been in there for a year and a half.
From a prospect standpoint, those checking out West Virginia this year would be wise to focus their attention on the Mountaineers outfield. Depending on your taste in prospects, an argument could be made for either SR OF Brady Wilson or rJR OF Matt Frazer as worthy mid- to late-round draft picks. Wilson’s speed makes him an intriguing player to track, especially if his drafting team believes he has the hands and feet to handle second base on a regular basis. His dip in production from his sophomore reason to his junior year cost him last June, so you have to think he’ll need a big bounce back year in 2013 to hear his name called on draft day.
Frazer’s calling card is his tremendous size (6-5, 260 pounds). For a man build like a tank, he’s surprisingly athletic in his actions, both in the field and at the plate. Unsuprisingly, he offers more in the way of power projection than the 5-11, 175 pound Wilson; by the same token, he’s no where near as speedy as the Mountaineers fleet of foot outfield prospect. So, again, pick your favorite based on personal preference: do you like the foot speed and defense (potentially a big boon if he can play 2B) of Wilson or is the power projection and physical presence of Frazer more your cup of tea? No wrong answer at this point, I’d say. JR 1B Ryan McBroom and rSR OF Chris Rasky round out the list of upperclassman expected to contribute that caught my eye, but neither player currently makes sense as a potential June draft pick.
There’s really not much to discuss on the mound, despite the presence of a fairly experienced group of college arms. I’d be happy to go into a season with SR RHP Dan Dierdorff, rJR LHP Marshall Thompson, and rSO LHP Harrison Musgrave (returning from 2012 Tommy John surgery) headlining my pitching staff, but can’t really go the next step and declare any single Mountaineers pitcher a legitimate pro prospect. Based largely on numbers alone, JR RHP Ryan Tezak stands out as perhaps the most appealing professional candidate: in limited innings, he’s been able to knockout batters at a strong rate (9.53 K/9 in 28.1 IP in 2011, 8.10 K/9 in 26.2 IP last year).
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. SO OF Bobby Boyd
I like SO OF Bobby Boyd as a more refined version of Wilson. He’s a player to watch due to his plus speed, leadoff approach, and impressive range in center field. It’ll be interesting to see if he can grow into some power over the next two or three seasons at WVU. Fellow sophomore 2B Billy Fleming is more of a sleeper, but I like him as a grinder-type who might be able to make some inroads with scouts who dig his gritty style of play.
2013 MLB Draft Preview: Purdue Boilermakers
Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)
1. rJR RHP Brad Schreiber
2. JR OF Stephen Talbott
3. JR C/1B Sean McHugh
Last year’s postseason run was a magical one for Purdue, so it should come as no shock to fans of the program that 2013 is set up as a “nowhere to go but down” kind of season. There is little doubt that times will be tough in the Boilermaker lineup, at least initially. Of the nine qualified batters listed on Purdue’s College Splits page, only two return in 2013. That includes nobody in the top four (sorted by wOBA): JR OF Stephen Talbott is fifth, SR 1B Angelo Cianfrocco ninth. Only two of the seven qualified pitchers (sorted by innings) return: rSR RHP Robert Ramer (fourth) and SO RHP Connor Podkul (fifth). Last year’s banner crop of hitters – Kevin Plawecki, Cameron Perkins, and Eric Charles – must be replaced, as will a number of solid arms off the pitching staff.
One notable exception to the returning pitchers note is rJR RHP Brad Schreiber, who, due to injury, isn’t included as a returning player but arguably has the greatest pro upside as any pitcher who did throw for Purdue in 2012. The strapping righthander’s return from the last year’s Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire junior season will be interesting to watch for a few reasons.
It is widely accepted that command takes longer than velocity to come back after a procedure on the elbow. That bit of information is part of what makes Schreiber’s return so fascinating. The Boilermaker’s potential 2013 ace was never known for his command before the injury, so could it be that his return to full form will be an ever greater challenge? A more positive, and more likely, take would simply be you can’t long for what you’ve never known. Command was never what made Schreiber a prospect, so a lack of it due to the operation can’t be held too harshly against him, right? It’s a theory, at least. At his best, Schreiber relies on fastball after fastball after fastball, often without knowing quite sure each pitch is heading. His pre-injury peak velocities (94-96) jibe with his back of the bullpen profile, but what makes his heater really stand out is the explosive movement he gets on it. His is a fastball that may actually have too much movement for his own good at times. Better command and a more reliable breaking ball would help him shoot up boards.
Outside of Schreiber, there’s not a lot to currently love about future Boilermakers’ draft prospects. Admittedly, this is at least in part to the huge unknown that is the composition of this upcoming year’s team. I like Stephen Talbott as a speedy, high-contact organizational outfielder, and strong JR C/1B Sean McHugh has shown enough promise in the eyes of the Purdue coaching staff to assume the job of Plawecki’s successor behind the plate. Robert Ramer is probably the next best arm after Schreiber, but his game is built more on outstanding control – his 0.36 BB/9 in 50.1 IP last year has been the best I’ve noticed so far – than pro-caliber stuff. The betting man in me would probably only put my hard earned cash on Schreiber being drafted this year, with Talbott the next most likely name down the line and McHugh a close third.
I don’t mean to be all gloom and doom about Purdue’s prospects’ prospects going forward. I’m far from a college baseball expert, but it doesn’t take a well-compensated insider to see how good a job that Doug Schreiber has done turning around the program. Once game action begins I have little doubt that we’ll see some worthwhile names begin to pop up among the freshman and sophomore classes, and I wouldn’t completely rule out a “coached-up” existing upperclassman emerging from the current roster. There’s also the possibility that one of Purdue’s incoming junior college players – Conner Hudnall, perhaps – will prove himself draftable in the next few months.
2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know
1. FR LHP Jordan Minch
2. SO RHP Connor Podkul
The top returning prospect to watch for in 2014 is probably Connor Podkul, a righthander with good size (6-4, 200), good breaking stuff, and a steady freshman season under his belt. Getting incoming freshman LHP Jordan Minch, last year’s 298th best prospect according to the fool in charge of this site, is quite the coup for the Purdue program. He’ll be draft-eligible again in two years, so the pressure will be on to see if he can hone his three potential above-average pitches (upper-80s FB, mid-70s CB, and low-70s CU) in short order. I don’t know what Purdue has planned for the young lefty, but his advanced pitchability and superior command, to say nothing of his already solid stuff for a lefthanded pitcher, seem well-suited for the college game. With holes littering the Boilermakers pitching staff, I see no reason why he shouldn’t get opportunities to pitch from February on. The ability to convince a player of Minch’s caliber to turn down pro ball and come to West Lafayette is just one of many indicators that make it clear that Coach Schreiber has this program in excellent hands.
Week Ahead
The last full work week before some time off for the holidays (always a crazy time) coincides with the impending due date of a grad school project or three, so I’m loading up on some relatively easy to produce content this week. I want to finish off the First Round “Locks” thing, but going through all the pitchers is such a daunting task that I think it ought to wait until I have a little more time/patience. Quick spoiler on that, just because: Sean Manaea is officially my endorsed candidate for first overall pick this year. His picture on the sidebar was a bit of a giveaway — thanks to my pals at ISU for providing the great shot — and I think he’s in store for a junior season that will have us all wondering why he wasn’t the consensus top guy six months before the draft to begin with. More to come on that, obviously, but let’s get back to sweet, sweet schedule talk for now. Everybody loves chatting about logistics, right?
I have always loved doing college prospect previews and never seem to get to nearly as many teams as I’d like, so this year I’m making a point to highlight some of the more interesting non-traditional baseball schools across the country. These schools may not have quite the depth of talent as some of the big boys in the college scene, but, if following the draft over the years has taught me anything, there are good prospects to be found scattered across the land. If you’re a fan of a a big-time program and/or just want to hear about the best and the brightest prospects out there (really can’t blame you for that, by the way), then don’t worry: the Vanderbilts, Floridas, North Carolinas, Stanfords, UCLAs, and, yeah, Louisvilles will be profiled before long. Until then, however, we’ll shine the light on some of the players that too often are ignored by the “eh, I’m a prospect expert who feels like covering the draft from mid-May to early June” types who can’t be bothered with any non-first round pick caliber players.
The schools I picked were completely random. Normally I scan down my Word document and just go from Page 1 until I run out of time — long-time readers might now realize that my Word doc starts with the ACC schools, hence the heavy exposure of those lucky schools over the years — but this year it made sense to spread the love a little bit. As always, requests are welcomed…the ability to honor reader requests is one of the perks of the no pay, no boss setup. Here’s the current exciting schedule that I’m printing publicly in an attempt to force myself to honor my commitment:
Tuesday: Iowa Purdue
Wednesday: Georgetown West Virginia
Thursday: Cal Poly Cal State Northridge
Friday: Memphis Houston
(EDIT: I hate having to edit this just a few hours after originally publishing, but my inability to save as frequently as I should + a possessed computer that is compelled to restart for pointless updates every seemingly every other day = a few days worth of lost data. Not sure what happened to the autosave feature, but what’s done is done. All of the work I did on the four schools above is gone, as is the work done on next week’s schools (Northwestern, Portland, UNLV, Louisiana Tech, and Wright State). Since I’m venting anyway, I’m also pissed that my down arrow key snapped off a few weeks ago. That was a pain, but this morning the nub that let me still use the key popped off as well. You never realize how often you use that damn key until you no longer have the ability to do so. The minor setbacks may led to a change in schedule…I’ll try to stick with a team a day throughout the week, but I may mix up the teams. Going back and writing about teams I’ve already covered doesn’t sit well with me right now…eventually we’ll get back to the teams listed above, but I may need a few weeks to forget what I wrote about them originally so I can subsequently go back and enjoy writing about them again. I think I’ll just swap out new teams based on conferences. Schedule will be updated shortly to reflect the changes. Apologies to anybody who had their heart set on hearing about Georgetown’s prospects!)
Projecting the First Round: MLB Draft 2013 Outfield Prospects
“Locks” (6)
- Stanford OF Austin Wilson
- OF Austin Meadows
- OF Clint Frazier
- OF Ryan Boldt
- OF Trey Ball
- OF Justin Williams
These were among the easiest players to lock in as first round picks next June. I thought Wilson looked particularly great this summer on the Cape. The only thing that could potentially knock Wilson down a bit on draft day — well, not the only thing, but rather among the most likely — is the very same thing that caused him to tumble in 2010: bonus demands and signability. Meadows and Frazier are both outstanding prospects that really don’t need much extra pontification. There will be plenty of discussion over the next six months fixated on the Meadows v Frazier debate at the top of the draft, and I look forward to really delving into each player’s pros and cons. Boldt is just a step behind the big two for me at this point, and he gives off a distinct David Dahl vibe every time I see him.
Ball is a first round pick either as an outfielder or lefthanded pitcher, so he makes for an easy inclusion on this list. I originally had Williams heading up the Definite Maybes category, but the combination of raw power, keen batting eye, easy swing, and, perhaps most importantly, his relative newness to the game makes him a great bet to land in the draft’s first round. The logic is fairly simple: Williams already possesses first round tools and impressive baseball skills, all without the benefit of the same formal instruction and experience of many of his peers. It takes a little extra extrapolation than I’d like, but I don’t think it is crazy to believe Williams’ growth over the next few months will exceed that of any other top player in this class. He reminds me of a little bit of a bigger, stronger, more powerful Zach Collier, who went 34th overall in 2008.
Definite Maybes (5)
- Fresno State OF Aaron Judge
- Samford OF Phillip Ervin
- OF Josh Hart
- OF Terry McClure
- OF Matthew McPhearson
I really, really want to put Judge in the lock category because I think he’s primed for a huge junior season, but couldn’t in good conscious make such a bold proclamation — because what I say here is soooo important, you see — due to his funky (the history of 6-7 outfielders in the pro ball isn’t all that extensive) scouting profile. I think Judge will be a first round pick because I value him as a first round caliber talent. I also realize that sometimes my personal tastes diverge quite a bit from big league scouting trends. That’s why he’s not a lock. I’m lightly a little bit light on Ervin a this point, but I think a lack of a carrying tool might knock him down a few teams’ boards. Hart, McClure, and McPhearson can all run with any player in this year’s class. Tracking which of the three rises up above the rest will be one of this spring’s most enjoyable draft subplots. All have plus speed (at minimum) and each knows how to utilize it to produce big results. I think both Hart and McPhearson look like future big league regulars in CF (as a fan of the team who just traded for Ben Revere, I’m really trying to talk myself into players with the speed/defense CF skill set), but it’s McClure’s added dimension of power upside that gives him the highest overall ceiling as of now.
*****
The list of outfielders who just missed the cut is long and chock full of big-time names. So long and chock full of big-time names, in fact, that I think it makes sense to break it down a little bit further. The first five college guys who missed:
- LSU OF Jacoby Jones
- Vanderbilt OF Conrad Gregor
- Mississippi OF Hunter Renfroe
- Kansas State OF Jared King
- Cal State Fullerton OF Michael Lorenzen
I have Jones listed with the outfielders because of his strong showing in CF, a position where he has the potential to be an above-average defender in time. That’s the reason, for sure. It definitely isn’t because I forget to include him in any of the potential infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) where he might fit best. He looked pretty darn good at both CF and SS on the Cape, so I’m inclined to take a wait-and-see approach to his future defensive home. Same deal with his bat, a tool that he hasn’t shown to be big league quality through two years at LSU. Renfroe and Lorenzen are both toolsy outfielders with plus-plus arm strength and major pitch recognition issues. Gregor and King aren’t particularly toolsy outfielders, but each guy can really hit.
Five more college outfielders of note:
- Georgia Tech OF Brandon Thomas
- Virginia Tech OF Tyler Horan
- Florida State OF Marcus Davis
- Vanderbilt OF Tony Kemp
- Pepperdine OF Aaron Brown
We’re deep enough into this list to streamline our focus. Or I’m getting lazy and want to finish this up before the end of the year. Either way, let’s quickly chat about Marcus Davis. Watch Davis, a junior college transfer, very closely this spring at Florida State. He’s going to hit. He might even hit a lot. Alright, good chat.
****
Finally, we’ve reached the lightning round name only portion of our program. These are the players that may not necessarily be the best current prospects, but, for a variety of reasons known only to me (for now…), they rank among my very favorites. High school guys first, then more college names to know…
- OF Stephen Wrenn
- OF William Abreu
- OF Johnshwy Fargas
- OF Jason Martin
- OF Billy McKinney
- OF Billy Roth
- Wake Forest OF Kevin Jordan
- Miami OF Dale Carey
- Maryland OF Mike Montville
- South Florida OF James Ramsay
- Mississippi OF Tanner Mathis
- Arkansas OF Jacob Morris
- Vanderbilt OF Connor Harrell
- Texas OF Mark Payton
- Texas A&M OF Krey Bratsen
- UCLA OF Brenton Allen
- UCLA OF Eric Filia-Snyder
- Stanford OF Brian Ragira
- Washington State OF Jason Monda
- Arizona OF Johnny Field
- Michigan OF Michael O’Neill
- San Diego OF Louie Lechich
- James Madison OF Johnny Bladel
- Rhode Island OF Jeff Roy
- Florida Gulf Coast OF Sean Dwyer
- Liberty OF Ryan Cordell
- Jacksonville State OF Coty Blanchard
- Southern New Hampshire OF Jon Minucci
- Grossmont JC OF Billy Flamion
- Polk State JC OF Daniel Sweet
- Santa Fe CC OF Jamal Martin
Projecting the First Round: MLB Draft 2013 Third Base Prospects
“Locks”
3B: San Diego 3B Kris Bryant and North Carolina 3B Colin Moran (2)
Third base is the one position so far that an argument could be made has more star power at the top in the college ranks than it does at the high school level. This isn’t meant to disparage the above-average group of prospects that make up the cream of the prep crop, but is instead designed to shed some much needed positive light on what looks to be an all-around lackluster year for college position players. The outlook is bleak for teams looking for a quick fix bat at catcher, first, second, or short, but third base could provide up to a half-dozen regular big league third basemen from the college game alone. The two names that jump out as likely first round talents are Bryant and Moran. I no longer doubt Bryant’s future as a big league power hitter, but his defense at third remains a work in progress. He’s more athletic than often given credit, so, if nothing else, he should have a home in RF if his drafting team deems his glove at the hot corner unplayable. In many ways I feel like Moran has been put on the draft landscape just for me. That’s mostly because I’m an unrepentant egotist, but also because I a) love guys who consistently play above their tools, b) am a complete sucker for a pretty lefthanded swing, and c) have the importance of plate discipline, having a plan prior to every at bat, and generally taking a measured yet violent approach to hitting ingrained deep into my pitch black soul. Moran offers up a resounding check mark for each of those qualifications. I think he’s a better version of last draft’s Matt Reynolds with the upside of San Diego 3B Chase Headley.
*****
Definite Maybes
Virginia Tech 3B Chad Pinder, Arkansas 3B Dominic Ficociello, Texas 3B Erich Weiss, Stephen F. Austin State 3B Hunter Dozier, College of the Canyons 3B Trey Williams, 3B Cavan Biggio, 3B Travis Demeritte, 3B Wesley Jones, 3B Jan Hernandez (9)
The next tier down includes guys like Pinder, Ficociello, Weiss, Dozier, and Williams. It’s a fairly tight bunch, so my advice is to pick your favorite and run with it. I wouldn’t rule out any of those names making a run at the first round, but I also wouldn’t count on it either. Analysis! Pinder’s tools and I think he could grow into a plus defensive player, but he’s got plenty to prove at the plate, especially with respect to his approach. I’ve always personally viewed Weiss as a poor man’s Moran, but a few friends in the game I’ve spoken to actually prefer the junior from Texas. Dozier reminds me of a less heralded version of Pinder. I currently prefer Dozier – more physical, better approach, similar athleticism, maybe a touch less defense but not far off — over the Virginia Tech third baseman, but the two are fairly close in my mind. Ficociello has a really intriguing hit tool, but offers less overall upside than the rest of the bunch for me.
Finally, we come to Williams. Williams, for the 99.9% of the readership unfamiliar of anything written here before this precise point in time, was a huge favorite last year. Like, highest rated third baseman in the entire 2012 MLB Draft huge. I preferred him over Richie Shaffer, Joey Gallo, and Addison Russell, among hundreds of others. Nothing has changed since last June and now, so here’s a reprint of my notes on him then:
1. 3B Trey Williams (Valencia HS, California): big hit tool; potential plus to plus-plus raw power; advanced idea of how to hit, e.g. big opposite field power threat; strong arm often categorized as plus; potential star defensively at third base; great reactions and instincts; outstanding athlete; plus bat speed; plus hit tool; slightly above-average speed; very strong; has that special sound; pitch recognition to be monitored; super quick bat, solid approach: very patient, lightning in wrists; swing needs some work, but what is there is a fine building block; strong arm, steady defender; below-average speed, but quick feet and reactions at third; should be an average defender at worst with much more upside than that; big-time raw power, personally I’m a believer; 6-2, 210 pounds; R/R
Notes distilled for the present day: above-average power, hit tool, arm, and defensive tools. I’m really looking forward to seeing what kind of damage he can do in junior college this year.
On the high school side, I think you’re looking at a similar group of steady potential regulars at third. I don’t see any of the names below as having superstar upside — think I’d only hang that on Bryant out of this entire third base class, maybe Moran — but there are still some damn fine players worth getting to know. I’ll wimp out and not declare any of the prep guys locks to go in the first, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. After all, shocking though it may be, I’m not clairvoyant. Wasting my life savings on Power Ball tickets pretty much hammered that point home.
Biggio and Demeritte are the two rock solid prospects that best fit this steady potential regular archetype: good defensive tools (great in Demeritte’s case), line drive machine, advanced approach to hitting, and professional mindsets. Jones has a higher ceiling if you buy into his power upside. I’m not there yet (wasn’t impressed in my one firsthand view, haven’t heard from enough credible sources who like him, and think his approach is way, way too aggressive to put whatever power he may or may not have to use), but I’m but one tiny ripple in the vast ocean of internet draft experts. Hernandez may split the difference between steady and risky: he’s advanced as a power hitter for a high school player and I’ve heard some Javier Baez comps very quietly whispered in his direction.
*****
If you haven’t figured it out by now, I have a bit of an unhealthy obsession with third base prospects. Part of that is likely due to the fact that my favorite team hasn’t had a good third base prospect since Scott Rolen almost twenty years ago. I’ve seen so many quality third basemen enter the league over the past two decades and I want so badly to finally call one my own. The depths of my third base lust reached dangerously low levels in 2005 when I developed one of my first “deep down I know he’s no good, but he’s on my team so I’ll love him unconditionally” affections for Welinson Baez. I talked myself out of “Mike Costanzo Superstar” and began hoping for a next generation Russell Branyan or, failing that, Greg Dobbs 2.0. Had unreasonably high hopes for Travis Chapman turning into something of value, to say nothing of my love for Travis Mattair. There was even a week or so after the draft that I tried to convince myself that Anthony Hewitt could stick in the infield. The Phillies system is deeper at third than I remember them being in years, so I don’t think I’m crazy for believing that one of Maikel Franco, Mitch Walding, Cody Asche, Tyler Greene, Cameron Perkins, or Zach Green will eventually break through and give me the homegrown third baseman I’ve been waiting for. Or perhaps they’ll draft one of the fine gentleman featured on this page next June…
Of course, the obsession goes beyond my Phillies fandom. Part of my third base weirdness is because of a harrowing experience in little league that occurred while I made a rare appearance at third. That was the day I caught a screaming line drive hit right back at me only to have the ball get stuck in the webbing of my busted old glove. The third base coach was a smart guy and he saw the difficulty I had getting the ball out. The man on third broke for home. I raced after him, quickly realizing his two step lead couldn’t be overcome. I ripped my glove off my hand and threw it in the general direction of the catcher. Too late. We went on to lose by a run. I went on to write about third base prospects on the internet for free. Life, man. Anyway, here are a bunch of other intriguing amateur third basemen, some of whom I’ve chosen to write something on and some of whom are note-less names on a screen…
Best of the Rest: 3B Ryan McMahon, 3B Joseph Martarano, 3B Dylan Manwaring
McMahon, Martarano, and the oddly underrated Manwaring all have last names that begin with the letter M. Beyond that, they are all pretty darn different. McMahon, from California, has been on the map for years as a standout performer at baseball factory Mater Dei. Martarano, from Idaho, is exactly the kind of fun prospect you’d expect from Idaho: mysterious, athletic, powerful, and raw. Manwaring, from New York, has a blend of tools and skills that match up with any prep third baseman in this class.
More Guys I Like, Lightning Round Edition
- 3B John Sternagel – hitting machine, but questions on defense and power upside
- 3B Blake Tiberi – nifty glove, like the bat, underrated athlete despite shorter stature
- 3B Tucker Neuhaus – especially strong arm, yet doesn’t always know where the ball is heading after it leaves his hand
- 3B Lachlan Fontaine – so much more than this year’s token Canadian import, rock solid prospect with better than you’d think baseball skills and plenty of untapped upside
- Duke 3B Jordan Betts
- Miami 3B Brad Fieger
- Miami 3B Tyler Palmer
- Auburn 3B Damek Tomscha
- Florida 3B Zack Powers
- Texas Tech 3B Jake Barrios
- Long Beach State 3B Michael Hill
- East Carolina 3B Zach Houchins
- Southern Illinois 3B Donny Duschinsky
- Texas-Pan American 3B Alberto Morales
- Everett JC 3B Dylan LaVelle
Projecting the First Round: MLB Draft 2013 Middle Infield Prospects
“Locks”
SS: Oscar Mercado, JP Crawford (2)
I’m on board with the Mercado as Elvis Andrus 2.0 comps and was out ahead of the “hey, he’s ahead of where Francisco Lindor was at the same stage just a few years ago” talk, so, yeah, you could say I’m a pretty big fan. That came out way smarmier than I would have liked – I’m sorry. The big thing to watch with Mercado this spring will be how he physically looks at the plate; with added strength he could be a serious contender for the top five or so picks, but many of the veteran evaluators who have seen him question whether or not he has the frame to support any additional bulk. Everything else about his game is above-average or better: swing, arm strength, speed, range, hands, release, pitch recognition, instincts. The way I feel about Mercado is how many of the professionals in the business feel about Crawford, a steady riser who now sits atop the majority of big league clubs’ middle infield boards. What’s funny about Crawford’s recent rise is that so much of it is predicated on his improved defense up the middle. In my first looks at Crawford last year, it was actually his defense at shortstop that stood out to me the most. Not for nothing, but I heard down in Florida that the Astros really, really, really like Crawford. Really.
Definite Maybes
SS: Andy McGuire, Chris Rivera, Riley Unroe, Connor Heady (4)
McGuire, Unroe, and Heady all look to have the defensive tools to stay at shortstop in pro ball. Rivera could also be included in that group, but I’m part of the growing contingent that would really like to see what he can do behind the plate between now and June. A big spring could propel any of the four into the first round.
*****
Second base prospects don’t typically crash the first round party and 2013 looks to be no exception. We’ll look a few interesting names in the interest of thoroughness and, more honestly, more baseball talk is better than less baseball talk.
Anfernee Grier, Christian Arroyo, and Dalton Dulin are currently the best bets of this year’s prep second basemen to rise into the first round. In a way, that’s damning with faint praise as being the best of any year’s top prep second basemen list doesn’t guarantee much more than the cost of the electronic paper such proclamations are printed on. Thankfully, each player listed above has a contingency plan that you don’t typically see with second base prospects. Grier could wind up as an above-average glove in CF, Arroyo has an outside shot at sticking at shortstop, and Dulin, well, Dulin is pretty much a second baseman or bust but his makeup has been so universally lauded that you wonder if he may go a few spots earlier than his talent warrants. That last one is a bit of a stretch, but that’s what you do over seven months ahead of the draft in November.
*****
Once again we get down to the college ranks where, once again, there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. As covered with the other positions we’ve touched on, it wouldn’t be a shock to see half a dozen or more high school players off the board before the first college guy gets selected. I’ve previously written about my appreciation for Frazier, an underrated guy with just enough tools to profile as a big league player:”Frazier, yet another up the middle prospect, reminds me some of last year’s underrated all season (at least until draft day) Nolan Fontana. Frazier won’t wow you with the glove — some have him moving to 2B due mostly to an iffy arm, but I think he’s just steady enough to stick at SS for now — but he’s an on-base machine with a relatively high floor. Besides the potential switch off of shortstop, I do worry some about a lack of natural strength/in-game power.” I felt similarly about Mazzilli prior to the draft last year: “He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).”
Kennedy has a little bit of breakout potential now that he’s finally on a big stage at Clemson, Riddle has a strong hit tool but may be better off at 3B down the line, and Henderson could be this year’s plus athlete who steps up with a big spring. Arguably the three biggest names on the list belong to Gonzalez, Asuaje, and Alvord. Gonzalez has been a consistent producer for a big time program with more raw power than your typical middle infield, Asuaje had a great showing on the Cape and has no real weaknesses to his game, and Alvord, an Auburn transfer, has been on the radar since his high school days.
- 2B Shane Kennedy (Clemson)
- 2B LJ Mazzilli (Connecticut)
- 2B JT Riddle (Kentucky)
- 2B Demarcus Henderson (Mississippi State)
- 2B Ross Kivett (Kansas State)
- 2B/SS Lonnie Kauppila (Stanford)
- 2B Carlos Asuaje (Nova Southeastern)
- SS Justin Gonzalez (Florida State)
- SS/2B Adam Frazier (Mississippi State)
- SS Brandon Trinkwon (UC Santa Barbara)
- SS Zach Shank (Marist)
- SS/2B Zach Alvord (Tampa)
- SS Zac LaNeve (Louisburg JC)
- SS Tim Anderson (East Central CC)
Projecting the First Round: MLB Draft 2013 First Base Prospects
“Locks”
1B: Dominic Smith (1)
The downside to any high school player destined for first base professionally is immense. Without speed, athleticism, and, most importantly, a defensive positional advantage over your peers, it is a really tough climb from high school standout to big league star. Going from beating up on prep pitching to knowing your future is on the line with every plate appearance isn’t for everybody. The margin of error for bat-first prospects is so small that it is really difficult to find a legitimate first round “lock” amateur first baseman in any given year. Enter Dominic Smith.
I recently spoke to one of Smith’s biggest fans in the scouting community who told me, all developmental caveats understood, Smith’s realistic big league floor is Adam LaRoche. That’s crazy, right? LaRoche as a potential floor? I’ve never been first in line for the Adam LaRoche fan club or anything, but he’s had a pretty darn good career all things considered. In addition to LaRoche, I’ve also independently heard Larry Walker and the non-2001 version of Luis Gonzalez mentioned, though in each instance the players discussed were only done so in terms of ceiling. Popular industry comps (ceiling, again) include Todd Helton and Adrian Gonzalez, both (I believe) from members of the excellent staff at Perfect Game. Love comps, hate comps, have no strong feelings either way towards comps…those names mentioned speak to what those in the business think about Smith’s upside with the stick. The comparison I’d make — you know, if I was the type who enjoyed making comps — is Justin Morneau, give or take an inch or two. One last mystery comp that I think you may hear again between now and June:
- “bat speed to spare”
- “as much raw power as anyone in the draft”
- “power ranges to all fields”
- “approach at the plate is advanced”
- “solid defender with athleticism”
- “well above-average arm”
- “regularly touching 95 mph off the mound”
- “could be an above-average defender”
- “tools to be an all-star first baseman”
You can quibble some with the power (mystery guy had a touch more raw power in high school), defense (advantage Smith), and maximum velocity (Smith’s top reading is 92 so far), but I think most of those scouting blurbs could have been pulled directly from a scouting report of Smith. Our mystery comp is none other than Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick back in 2008. Excerpts were taken from Baseball America, where the full report can be found at here (for subscribers).
Definite Maybes
1B: Nick Longhi, Rowdy Tellez, Zack Collins, DJ Peterson (4)
*****
Smith isn’t alone when it comes to intriguing high school first base prospects. The hype on Nick Longhi has subsided some in recent months, but not for anything that will hurt his eventual draft stock. I had somebody in the know refer to him as “Dominic Smith without the big arm,” a fitting comp for a player who had scouts literally oohing and ahhing when last I saw him. Longhi seems quite underrated thus far — out of sight, out of mind — but that could just be me being way off base on yet another high school guy who impressed me a ton in person. Just below him you have Rowdy Tellez (arguably the best raw power of his class), Zack Collins (reminds me of a bigger, more athletic Mike Napoli), and Corey Simpson (like Collins, he also catches). You could keep going down the list and, if you’re a charitable soul, give an outside chance of one of the following big bats breaking through this spring: Bryce Harman, Joe Dudek, KJ Woods, Pete Alonso, and Cody Bellinger. All in all, a pretty solid group of high school first base prospects.
I don’t think there is much to be excited about in the way of college first base prospects, at least in terms of early round candidates who project as everyday ballplayers. The list below isn’t necessarily made up of the best prospects (like I would know anyway, right?), but rather the ones that jumped out to me as being especially intriguing follows as we head into the season. Peterson has the best shot of the group of cracking the first round – I could see some teams buying into him as a smaller, yet no less powerful version of CJ Cron, the 17th overall pick in 2011. I’d have Palka (huge raw power, gifted natural hitter, plus arm) just behind him, though Palka’s in more of a make or break situation than Peterson this year when it comes to plate discipline and overall approach to hitting (i.e. the stuff he presently gets away with in college won’t work in the pros). The Notre Dame lineup, led by their sluggers Jagielo and Mancini, should be a lot of fun to watch this year. I think both guys will keep mashing in 2013, so no less than 30 combined homers is what I’m hoping to see.
- Daniel Palka (Georgia Tech)
- Eric Jagielo (Notre Dame)
- Trey Mancini (Notre Dame)
- Ryon Healy (Oregon State)
- Chase McDonald (East Carolina)
- Nathan Gomez (Marshall)
- DJ Peterson (New Mexico)
- Chase Compton (Louisiana-Lafayette)
- Brad Zebedis (Presbyterian)
- Esteban Gomez (St. Thomas)
Projecting the First Round: MLB Draft 2013 Catching Prospects
“Locks”
C: Reese McGuire (1)
There really is no such thing as a “lock” this early in the process, but fortune favors the bold — we might be disqualified from bold due to our wimpy use of quotes around lock — so we’ll go ahead and pretend we can see the future anyway. McGuire is the kind of high school catching prospect so far ahead of his peers that he makes me want to compare him against top guys from previous years. Stay tuned for that. In the meantime, ponder how high you’d be willing to take a chance on a plus-plus defender with ridiculous athleticism, a pretty swing, and the chance for double-digit home run power.
Definite Maybes
Too Wide Open to Guess
*****
In no order, any one of the following could break through as the clear cut second prep catcher off the board: Jeremy Martinez, Chris Okey, Nick Ciuffo, Jonathan Denney, and Brian Navaretto. I’ve gone back and forth on the second spot all spring, but, forced to choose on this early date, I’d have Denney and Navaretto just ahead of the pack. I’m only comfortable declaring McGuire is a sure-fire first round pick at this point because of the way pro teams view high school catchers early on in the draft.
This catching class has the potential to be special, but some draft day perspective is key: the last first round with more than two high school catchers selected was 1994 (Paul Konerko, Ramon Castro, and Mark Johnson). I typically don’t care for making projections like this — every draft pool has talent dispersed differently and judging things based solely off historical trends ends up in insisting the Pirates would never take a signablity risk like Jameson Taillon — but I do think there’s something to be said for teams being cautious with projecting young catching early on in the draft. Of all the positions that get hyped up pre-draft by fools like me, catcher is the one spot you consistently fail to see the hype match the selection spot.
Look to 2009, the draft year that many (myself included) will likely be comparing to this 2013 group of catchers before long: Steven Baron went with pick 33 (first prep backstop off the board), Tommy Joseph pick 55, Cameron Garfield pick 74, JR Murphy pick 76, Wil Myers pick 91 (though signability had some to do with it), Max Stassi pick 123, Luke Bailey pick 139 (injury can explain this fall in part), Michael Ohlman pick 326, Andrew Susac pick 497, Gene Escalante pick 856, Mike Zunino pick 873, and Austin Maddox pick 1129. Some of those guys were getting legitimate early round buzz (Stassi, Ohlman, and Maddox stand out) at various points along the process. Draft day has a way of doing weird things to how teams value prep catching. McGuire and one or two others (TBD) will likely constitute this year’s high school catching first round contingent.
As far as the college side goes, well, the less written the better. The names below aren’t necessarily the best of the best at this time, but instead a few names that I think could rise (or, in some cases, continue to rise) up draft boards this spring. Tyler Ross and Andrew Knapp were the first two on my internal big board from a few months ago, but I have a lot more homework to do to have a fuller idea on the entirety of the college catching class. A quick run through revealed a whole lot of players who profile as defense-first backups (Texas JR Jacob Felt fits the bill here) without a great deal of upside at the plate.
In fact, a really strong argument can be made that there are anywhere from a half-dozen (the six names mentioned on this page are a good start) to a baker’s dozen better high school catching prospects better than even the top college backstop. I’m not yet prepared to make that argument — again, I have some homework to do before I can make fun declarative statements that will look insane by June — but it is one that may come up again in this space over the next few months. In no order, here a few of the college names (again, in no particular order and not necessarily a projection of the six best prospects come June) that have caught my eye early on in the process. Worth pointing out that I don’t think any of the players below have a realistic shot to even approach the first round.
- Matt Roberts (North Carolina)
- Tyler Ross (Louisiana State)
- Blake Austin (Auburn)
- Andrew Knapp (California)
- Austin Wynns (Fresno State)
- Matt Sinclair (Angelina JC)
The Baseball Draft Report 