2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Houston
JR RHP Andrew Lantrip (2016)
JR RHP Marshall Kasowski (2016)
rJR RHP Bubba Maxwell (2016)
JR RHP Nick Hernandez (2016)
JR LHP Nathan Jackson (2016)
SR 3B/1B Justin Montemayor (2016)
SR C Jacob Campbell (2016)
rSO 3B/SS Connor Hollis (2016)
JR SS Jose Reyes (2016)
JR 3B Jordan Strading (2016)
SR 2B Josh Vidales (2016)
SR 2B Robert Grilli (2016)
SO LHP Seth Romero (2017)
SO LHP Aaron Fletcher (2017)
SO OF/3B Corey Julks (2017)
SO C/SS Connor Wong (2017)
SO OF Clay Casey (2017)
SO OF Zac Taylor (2017)
FR LHP Tanner Lawson (2018)
FR RHP Mitch Ullom (2018)
FR C/1B Joe Davis (2018)
FR OF Grayson Padgett (2018)
FR OF Caleb Morris (2018)
FR INF Wendell Champion (2018)
I’m all about SR 2B Josh Vidales. I can’t help it. Here’s what was written about him last year…
I wish JR 2B Josh Vidales had even a little bit of power (.327 and .306 slugging the past two seasons) because his approach (88 BB/51 K career), defense (plus) and speed (26/34 SB career, not a burner but picks his spots really well) all rate high enough to be an entertaining prospect to follow professionally. The fact that he’s currently seen as a second base or bust (though, again, he’s fantastic there) defensive prospect works against him, though I wonder — I honestly don’t know — if that’s something he can change minds about this spring. If he could be trusted on the left side of the infield, then we’re talking a strong potential utility future, even without the power. For all his flaws, I’d still want him to be a member of my organization.
He did up his SLG to .387 last year. That’s not great, but it’s an improvement. It also gave him his best ISO (.087) in his career. He kept getting on base with a .397 consistent to what he’s done in the past (now up to 123 BB/74 K career), swiped a few more bags (32/43 SB career), and played his usual brand of excellent defense at second. It’s not unusual to see spikes in production during a player’s senior season — far too often draft outlets overrate players on this basis, something I’ve been guilty of in the past — so hopefully Vidales enjoys the same fate this spring. If that’s the case, I think his consistent year-to-year output should get him drafted; this indirectly yet directly contradicts my previous point about overrating seniors, but this would be the case of a steady player having a better than usual senior year and not a guy having a breakout senior season out of nowhere. Consider the bigger than expected senior season prediction my attempt at wish-casting that others begin to see Vidales as I do. He’s an excellent college player and an honest pro prospect.
As much as I love Vidales, the clear top prospects on the Houston squad reside on the pitching staff. JR RHP Andrew Lantrip and JR RHP Marshall Kasowski both have very real chances of crashing the early round party. Kasowski has the more traditionally valued skill set — hard FB (up to 95), above-average mid-70s curve, rapidly improving change, and a sturdy yet athletic 6-3, 220 pound frame — while Lantrip nearly matches him in straight stuff (88-92 FB, 94 peak; above-average low-80s SL, rawer CU) but brings some of the best fastball command of this class to the mound each trip. The knock on him could be his size (6-1, 180), but that would be a silly thing to worry about considering the many positives already cited and his strong track record of striking men out and keeping runs off the board. I like both guys quite a bit could see one or both off the board much higher than many would presently believe. Two additional pitchers to know from the Houston staff include rJR RHP Bubba Maxwell (looking to find that 90-94 MPH heat he had pre-Tommy John surgery) and JR LHP Nathan Jackson (command lefty with a nice curve). Add those pitchers to SO LHP Seth Romero (2017) and you’ve got yourself one exciting group of arms.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – East Carolina
JR LHP Evan Kruczynski (2016)
JR LHP Jacob Wolfe (2016)
SR LHP Nick Durazo (2016)
JR LHP Luke Bolka (2016)
rSO RHP/INF Davis Kirkpatrick (2016)
SR RHP Jimmy Boyd (2016)
JR SS/RHP Kirk Morgan (2016)
SR OF Garrett Brooks (2016)
rJR C Travis Watkins (2016)
JR C/OF Eric Tyler (2016)
JR 2B/SS Charlie Yorgen (2016)
JR SS Wes Phillips (2016)
SR OF Jeff Nelson (2016)
JR 1B/LHP Bryce Harman (2016)
JR OF/RHP Zack Mozingo (2016)
SO RHP Joe Ingle (2017)
FR RHP Chris Holba (2018)
FR RHP Denny Brady (2018)
FR RHP Sam Lanier (2018)
FR OF Dwanya Williams-Sutton (2018)
FR OF Justin Dirden (2018)
FR SS Turner Brown (2018)
FR SS Kendall Ford (2018)
FR INF Brady Lloyd (2018)
This 2013 ranking of HS first basemen has held up surprisingly well so far. The only player not doing what was hoped so far is Ian Hagenmiller (10). Dominic Smith (1), Rowdy Tellez (2), Cody Bellinger (4), Nick Longhi (5), and Jake Bauers (8) have all had starts of their pro careers ranging from decent to damn good. Zack Collins and Pete Alonso are near the top of their class heading into this draft. Joe Dudek* (9) has a chance to join them with a big junior season. The same could be said for JR 1B/LHP Bryce Harman (6), the jumbo-sized (6-6, 240) slugger with raw power to match. Harman was known as a complete hitter (power and contact) throughout his prep career, but has struggled some in both areas so far at the college level. That’s not to say he’s been bad — he hasn’t — but just a suggestion that many talent evaluators will want to see more out of him this spring if he is to fulfill his top five round destiny. That might be too rich a forecast simply because college first basemen haven’t gone all that high in recent years — we only had eight college 1B go in the top ten rounds last year with only two of them in the top four rounds — but this class looks better at that position than it has been in a while. After going through the ACC teams with publicly posted rosters (i.e., no Louisville, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, or Virginia), I’d have Harman behind only Will Craig and Preston Palmeiro. A year like what many (myself included expect) — .500+ SLG, .200+ ISO, even BB/K ratio — would keep him moving up the board in the right direction.
(* 1/18/16 EDIT: Dudek is transferring to from North Carolina to Kentucky this season. He’ll sit out 2016 and have two years of eligibility remaining starting with the 2017 season. He’s still draft-eligible this year if a team fell enough in love with him this past year to make a run. Not likely — why go through the transfer process only to turn pro before getting on the field for your new team? — but possible.)
Harman is the best prospect on the team, but he’s not alone near the top. SR OF Garrett Brooks is my kind of senior sign: well-rounded, athletic, and patient at the plate. From last year…
JR OF Garrett Brooks could be on the verge of something, but after two highly underwhelming seasons I’m no longer sure what that something will look like. He’s got pro-caliber tools packed into his strong 5-9, 200 pound frame, but the results so far haven’t been pretty.
His 2015 was a lot prettier than the first two seasons (.270/.375/.357 with 21 BB/17 K in 126 AB), but showing a little more pop or in-game speed is the next step. I think he’ll take it and get himself drafted this June. JR SS Wes Phillips, an incoming transfer from Wichita State, could find himself in a similar spot. He’s likely to be joined in the middle of the Pirates infield with JR 2B/SS Charlie Yorgen, a steady glove with impressive plate discipline. I like him. Finally, East Carolina returns a pair of interesting catching prospects. Both rJR C Travis Watkins and JR C/OF Eric Tyler could play themselves into late-round draft consideration. Their most realistic outcome is senior-signs in 2017, but teams are always in the need for org catchers later in the draft.
JR LHP Evan Kruczynksi is my favorite thanks to his upper-80s fastball, pair of usable secondaries (CB and CU), and room to grow. A spike in missed bats in 2016 due in part to a few extra ticks on his fastball (maybe putting him in that 88-92 range) is my personal hope and expectation for his upcoming season. JR LHP Jacob Wolfe throws a mid- to upper-80s fastball with impressive sink. He had a fairly similar 2015 season to Kruczynski, but doesn’t quite offer the same growth potential physically. JR LHP Luke Bolka has the firmest fastball (88-94) and strongest track record of missing bats (10.35 K/9), but, like Wolfe, he lacks much projection. He’s also the most inexperienced of the trio: those peripherals came in just 11.1 IP last season. A case could be made for any of the three — the one with projection, the one with the sinker, the one with the heat — as the best long-term pro prospect depending on your personal tastes.
The top righthanded pitcher in ECU’s 2016 draft class is rSO Davis Kirkpatrick, who might just have a strong enough fastball (88-93) and breaking ball combo to rank as the top overall pitching prospect on the staff. He’ll have to overcome a year away from the mound and the inherent short righthander bias universal among all but the most open-minded of scouts, but I think he’s athletic enough to open some eyes. SR RHP Jimmy Boyd gets a special mention because his 0.76 BB/9 in 59.0 IP last season ranks as one of the lowest that I’ve come across so far. Keep on throwing strikes, Jimmy.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Cincinnati
SR RHP Mitch Patishall (2016)
rSR RHP Bryan Chenoweth (2016)
rJR LHP Colton Cleary (2016)
JR RHP Andrew Zellner (2016)
SR C Woody Wallace (2016)
SR 1B Devin Wenzel (2016)
rSO 2B Connor McVey (2016)
SO LHP Dalton Lehnen (2017)
SO LHP JT Perez (2017)
SO RHP Tristan Hammans (2017)
SO 1B/OF Ryan Noda (2017)
SO 2B Kyle Mottice (2017)
Can we just talk about Ian Happ again? Please? I guess since it’s my site and I make the rules there’s really nothing me from doing just that, but it’s only right to turn the page and take a closer look to see who’s next in line.
If we’re swinging for the fences, then the most appropriate player to discuss is SO 1B/OF Ryan Noda. He’s obviously a 2017 draft candidate to know and we don’t typically try to get too far ahead of ourselves here, but his talent merits a mention. Power like Noda’s isn’t found at places like Cincinnati every day. He’s a good athlete with plenty of bat speed and no fear as a hitter, so if he can find a way to make his aggressive approach (77 K in 196 AB) work better for him then he’ll be talked about as a serious early round talent in 18 months or so.
The pitching staff returns a few intriguing names. My favorites among them include SR RHP Mitch Patishall, JR RHP Andrew Zellner, and SO LHP Dalton Lehnen. Lehnen, like Noda a 2017 draft prospect, showed solid stuff across the board as a freshman. Patishall had a 2015 season to forget, but could bring his decent fastball/curveball starting kit to a team willing to overlook some of his early college struggles. Zellner is your best Bearcat prospect heading into the 2016 draft season. His 87-91 heat and average or better slider could look even better by the end of the years as he’s got some projection left at 6-3, 190 pounds. Continued growth out of him could make him a worthy draft pick come June.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Central Florida
JR LHP Andrew Faintich (2016)
JR RHP Campbell Scholl (2016)
JR RHP Juan Pimentel (2016)
rSR LHP Harrison Hukari (2016)
JR RHP Robby Howell (2016)
JR RHP Trent Thompson (2016)
JR OF/LHP Luke Hamblin (2016)
JR C/1B Matt Diorio (2016)
JR OF Eli Putnam (2016)
JR OF Eugene Vazquez (2016)
JR 3B/SS Kam Gellinger (2016)
JR SS Brennan Bozeman (2016)
SO RHP Brad Rowley (2017)
SO RHP Cre Finfrock (2017)
SO RHP/2B Kyle Marsh (2017)
SO C Logan Heiser (2017)
FR INF Matthew Mika (2018)
“We don’t know what we don’t know” is a quote I heard a smart person say one time. Sounded good. Could even seeing it make some sense in some respects. But I can assure you that I do know what I don’t know when it comes to the Central Florida team in 2016. This roster is loaded with players with little to no division one baseball experience, so my usual move of supplementing scouting reports, firsthand observations, and public commentary with a long look at the player’s track record on the field is out the window here.
Nice things have been said about JR OF Eli Putnam, JR OF/LHP Luke Hamblin, JR RHP Juan Pimentel, and JR RHP Campbell Scholl, but assessing any of those players fairly as prospects is a bigger task than an outsider like me can complete. I’m looking forward to seeing all four play this year.
I’m also looking forward to getting a closer look at returning talent like JR C/1B Matt Diorio, JR RHP Robby Howell, and JR LHP Andrew Faintich. Diorio is a pretty straight forward prospect for me right now: he can really hit, but his defensive future is highly uncertain. As a catcher he could rise up as one of the handful of top names in this class, but the “as a catcher” qualifier is something easier said than done. The good news is that many who know Diorio better than I do have insisted to me that he’s athletic enough to play some corner outfield in the event the idea of catching goes belly up. Framed as a potential corner outfielder/first baseman who occasionally can catch, Diorio’s path to the big leagues suddenly gets a little clearer. In a perfect world he’s a backstop all the way, but a super-utility player who can hit is hardly without value.
Howell and Faintich both have upper-80s fastballs (93 MPH peak for the former, 91 for the latter) and average-ish breaking balls. Howell was a workhorse last year (80.2 IP) who seems poised to do more of the same in 2016 while Faintich put up some crazy numbers (17.42 K/9 and 11.61 BB/9 in 9.1 scoreless innings) in his brief first extended taste of college ball. rSR LHP Harrison Hukari falls somewhere between the two as an arm who pitched more than Faintich (50.0 IP) but with better peripherals (9.18 K/9) than Howell. His is more of a mid- to upper-80s fastball, but his size (6-6, 250) from the left side could get him a second look this spring.
JR 3B/SS Kam Gellinger got the “interesting bat” comment in my notes. That’s meant to be a compliment or (at worst) an indicator to me to follow up to learn more about a guy as a hitter, but I suppose hitting .198/.234/.287 last year like Gellinger could be deemed “interesting” in the truest sense of the word. A line like that certainly catches your attention. Lackluster sophomore season or not, the toolsy infielder (arm, speed, range) is still interesting to me and could be in for a nice draft year breakout with the bat.
Much as I like the uncertainty of this year’s class at UCF, I’m digging the major upside — won’t call it a certainty that said upside will be reached, obviously, but that’s the slick writing transition I would have liked to pull off here — of the 2017 class. SO RHP Cre Finfrock is a household name to those as into college ball as I’m assuming anybody reading this is. Right behind him as a prospect is big personal favorite SO RHP/2B Kyle Marsh, a legitimate two-way talent who, in spite of an excellent fastball (88-94) and slider (flashes plus) mix, I might actually prefer as a position player.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Wake Forest
SR RHP/C Garrett Kelly (2016)
JR RHP Parker Dunshee (2016)
rSO RHP Chris Farish (2016)
JR RHP Connor Johnstone (2016)
JR RHP John McCarren (2016)
rSO RHP Parker Johnson (2016)
JR 1B/RHP Will Craig (2016)
JR C Ben Breazeale (2016)
SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez (2016)
JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou (2016)
rSR OF Kevin Conway (2016)
JR OF Jonathan Pryor (2016)
SO RHP Drew Loepprich (2017)
SO OF Stuart Fairchild (2017)
SO 1B Gavin Sheets (2017)
SO OF Keegan Maronpot (2017)
SO SS/2B Drew Freedman (2017)
SO SS/2B Bruce Steel (2017)
FR LHP Tyler Witt (2018)
FR RHP Griffin Roberts (2018)
FR RHP Rayne Supple (2018)
FR 3B/SS John Aiello (2018)
I think I’m going to keep touting JR 1B/RHP Will Craig as the righthanded AJ Reed until he starts getting some serious national recognition. I cited that name in the college draft preview from October, so might as well keep mentioning it over and over and over…
Do you like power? How about patience? What about a guy with power, patience, and the athleticism to pull off collegiate two-way duty? For everybody who missed on AJ Reed the first time around, Will Craig is here to give you a second chance. I won’t say he’ll be the first base prospect that finally tests how high a first base prospect can go in a post-PED draft landscape, but if he has a big enough junior season…
I love Craig. In past years I might back down some from the love from reasons both fair (positional value, certain scouty quibbles about bat speed and timing) and not (seeing him ignored by all the major media outlets so much that I start to question my own judgment), but I see little way that will be the case with Craig. Sure, he could force my hand by cratering out with a disappointing junior season (a la Ryan Howard back in the day), but that would only shift him from sleeper first round talent to sleeper fifth round value. His is a bat I believe in and I’m willing to ride or die with it.
I wanted to mention the Daniel Murphy comparison I got for JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou that I heard recently, but I couldn’t remember the major media outlet that had it first. I could have missed it elsewhere, but I think mentioning it again would be one of those instances where I plagiarize myself. I hit thirty a few months back and my memory has gone up in flames since. In addition to Murphy, I’ve also heard Todd Walker as a reference point for Mondou’s bat. Lefty bats who love to attack early in the count, provide average or better power, and can hang in at the keystone spot are always going to be valued highly by pro clubs. Or at least they should. The only thing that may knock Mondou down is the competition at the spot; we’ve only just begun, but he’s joined at the top of his own position ranking by the Notre Dame pair (Cavan Biggio and Kyle Fiala) profiled earlier. I’d put him between the two for now with the chance to rise as he keeps mashing. There’s some concern about his overly aggressive approach getting exposed along the way, so I guess consider that a second potential way that Mondou slips some this spring.
If you read the site regularly then you know that I like few things more than mid-round college catchers that look like sleeper big league backups to me. JR C Ben Breazeale fits the bill. He’s got a sturdy frame, plenty of strength, and is a steadying presence behind the dish defensively. Offensively he does enough to get by. Sounds like a potential backup catcher to me. SR OF/2B Joey Rodriguez began to put his considerable talent to work last year (.305/.411/.468), so making the call that he’ll have a big senior season is a prediction that comes about a year too late. A repeat of last year — or, better yet, continued improvement — should get him drafted as a senior sign that will do more for you than just save some draft cash. JR OF Jonathan Pryor had a nice year by most accounts last season (.316/.366/.384) while managing a tough to look at 5 BB/40 K ratio. It’s not exactly the formula for sustained success, but it worked last year. I don’t know enough about him from the scouting side to say if he’s a prospect or not, but that kind of approach is terrifying. Still, there’s something oddly pleasing about a player like Pryor finding college success with an approach to hitting antithetical to what many (myself very much included) believe is the preferred path.
It’s not personal, but I’ve been burned by SR RHP Garrett Kelly once too many times to continue touting him as a serious pro prospect. Draftable talent? Most definitely. But the upside I droned on and on about last year…
I’m a big fan of JR RHP/C Garrett Kelly. He’s a good ballplayer. He’s better at baseball than I ever was and better than 99.99% of the world’s population. Unfortunately, Kelly can’t hit. It was only 32 at bats, but his .094/.310/.125 line last season was not the kind of line you print out and stick on the fridge. That’s what makes his rumored full-time switch to the mound so anxiously awaited. Even though life as a hitter didn’t work out, there’s still a chance for him. As a pitcher, Kelly is a legit pro prospect. He’s already got that nice FB/SL relief combo going (already up to 93 with more likely coming), and the huge perk of being a low-mileage arm won’t go unnoticed by decision-makers this spring. I’ve long been been a sucker for players making the position player to pitcher switch and think Kelly could be a helium guy this spring.
…didn’t quite materialize in the form of on-field results in 2015. Of course, we’re nitpicking 11.2 disappointing innings here. That’s unfair no matter how much you’d like to justify it. I mean, Kelly still throws hard (up to 94 now) with an emerging slider and a relatively fresh arm. I’ve twisted my own arm enough here. I’m back in on Kelly as a serious pro prospect. His breakout senior season is coming, just you watch.
I’d move JR RHP Parker Dunshee to the top of the 2016 Demon Deacons (pitching) draft class (co-headlining with Kelly now that we’re cool again) because I think he has the stuff to potentially keep starting as a pro if he can improve his control and keep making strides with his low-80s change, but there’s something about rSO RHP Chris Farish that I keep coming back to. Maybe it’s his size (6-4, 210), maybe it’s his fastball (88-93, mid-90s peak), or maybe it’s the fact he he’s still largely a blank slate that hasn’t yet had the chance to experience the tough times that come with pitching in a major college conference, but I think he’s got a real chance to wind up the highest drafted pitcher off this staff come June. So that’s three co-headliners that I’m too dumb to separate beyond saying “hey, they’re all pretty promising!” I think I can live with that in January. JR RHP Connor Johnstone (coming off an ugly sophomore season, but with a nice fastball and good change) and JR RHP John McCarren (another nice fastball at 88-92) could factor into the draft mix as well.
As a program, Wake Forest is in pretty good shape. I actually don’t know if that’s true or not, but from a selfish draft perspective it certainly looks that way. You’ve got Craig/Mondou this year, SO OF Stuart Fairchild (an all-caps FAVORITE already) next year, and FR 3B/SS John Aiello for 2018. I know I’m higher on Craig than most, plus making long-term predictions about future classes almost always ends ugly, but this year’s Wake Forest team could have three potential first round caliber hitters in the regular lineup. Not bad.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Virginia Tech
rJR LHP Kit Scheetz (2016)
rSR LHP Jon Woodcock (2016)
JR RHP Aaron McGarity (2016)
JR RHP Luke Scherzer (2016)
rSO RHP Ryan Lauria (2016)
rJR 1B/LHP Phil Sciretta (2016)
rJR OF Saige Jenco (2016)
rSR OF Logan Bible (2016)
JR OF Mac Caples (2016)
JR 3B Ryan Tufts (2016)
rSO OF/LHP Tom Stoffel (2016)
SO LHP Packy Naughton (2017)
SO OF/3B Max Ponzurik (2017)
SO C Joe Freiday (2017)
FR RHP Nic Enright (2018)
FR RHP Culver Hughes (2018)
FR RHP Cole Kragel (2018)
FR RHP Payton Holdsworth (2018)
FR LHP/1B Patrick Hall (2018)
FR RHP Tim Salvadore (2018)
FR OF/1B Stevie Mangrum (2018)
FR C/OF Stephen Polansky (2018)
Last year around this time I was all over rJR OF Saige Jenco…
rSO OF Saige Jenco is a really good ballplayer. His plus to plus-plus speed is a game-changing tool, and, best of all, his understanding of how and when to utilize his special gift helps it play up even more. It’s rare to find a young player who knows what kind of player he truly is; the ability to play within yourself is so often overlooked by those scouring the nation for potential pros, but it can be the difference between a guy who gets by and a guy who gets the most out of his ability. Jenco knows how and when to use his speed to every advantage possible. From running down mistakes in the outfield, swiping bags at a solid rate, working deep counts and driving pitchers to frustration (40 BB/23 K), to knowing adopting the swing and approach of a power hitter would lead to ruin, Jenco fully understands and appreciates his strengths and weaknesses. While it’s true the lack of present power is a significant weakness (.032 ISO is mind-boggling low), Jenco’s strengths remain more interesting than what he can’t do well. A career along the lines of Ben Revere, Juan Pierre, Dee Gordon, or Craig Gentry, who had an ISO of just .087 in his junior year at Arkansas before returning for a senior season that helped him show off enough of a power spike (.167 ISO) to get drafted as a $10,000 senior sign, is on the table with continued growth.
Jenco followed the Gentry college career path fairly well by putting up an improved .136 ISO last year. The Red Sox couldn’t get him to put his name on a pro contract last summer and their loss is the Hokies gain. Not much has changed in his overall profile from a year ago — he’s still fast, he still has an advanced approach, he can still chase down deep flies in center — so the ceiling of a fourth outfielder remains. Of course, guys with fourth outfielder ceilings with similar skill sets (speed, patience, defense) have turned into starting players for some teams as the dearth of power in the modern game has shifted the balance back to the Jenco’s of the world.
Not all of these guys are great examples of that archetype, but a quick search of 2015 seasons of corner outfielders (200 PA minimum) who slugged less than .400 but still finished with positive fWAR includes Brett Gardner, Nori Aoki, Jarrod Dyson, Ben Revere, Delino Deshields, Rusney Castillo, and Chris Denorfia. David DeJesus, a pretty good tweener who feels like a really good fourth outfielder or a competent starting corner guy that is often one of the first names I think of when I think of this type, fell just short of the list. I’m not necessarily comparing Jenco to any of those guys — while some of those guys are great in a corner and stretched in center, Jenco is really good as a CF — so consider this more of an exercise in theoretical player comparisons as we attempt to define the various types of players that teams seem to like these days. As far as comps go, I’ll stick with my Gentry one for now.
JR OF Mac Caples hasn’t done it yet, but those who have seen him more than I have insist he’s set for a big junior season. He’s a really smart young hitter with plenty of power and solid speed. His impressive summer showings the past two years give those that are bullish about his future a strong leg to stand on when arguing on his behalf. The same people who (wisely) turned me on to Jenco are the ones talking up Caples this year; take that however you’d like. I’m excited to see what he does in 2016.
Despite the eye-catching last name JR RHP Luke Scherzer (no relation) hasn’t received much (if any) attention at the national level. That’s not unusual for a college reliever without knockout stuff, but I still think many will regret not tracking him more closely as we get closer to the draft this June. He’s got good stuff (88-93 FB, low-80s SL with promise) and a knack for getting swings and misses when it counts. The college closer profiles more comfortably as a potential middle reliever as a pro, but that’s still a fine outcome for a pitcher not expected to go until the mid-rounds. JR RHP Aaron McGarity has similar stuff, better command and control, and a bit more projection, but hasn’t missed bats at the same rate of Scherzer. rSO RHP Ryan Lauria, a Louisville transfer, could be a quick riser as he continues to make the comeback from Tommy John surgery. His pinpoint command of a low-90s fastball make him a nice sleeper name to remember. rJR LHP Kit Scheetz and his upper-80s fastball could eventually work himself into a late-round relief prospect. That’s what he looked like over the summer for Orleans on the Cape.
rSO OF/LHP Tom Stoffel is a new name for me to follow, but there’s been some positive buzz on him as a hitter. I like his on-base skills (.412 OBP last year in limited PA), but a little more power would go a long way in getting him noticed. rJR 1B Phil Sciretta showed well with the bat in limited opportunities in 2014, but couldn’t follow it up in even more limited at bats in 2015. What trend is real: will he show improvement because it’s another even-numbered year or continue his decline by slipping a bit once again? All depends on what narrative you’re into, I guess. Or, you know, how he’s looked to those who have seen him up close. I haven’t, so I’m stuck making bad narrative jokes. There’s a reason why this site is free to read, after all.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Notre Dame
SR RHP Nick McCarty (2016)
SR RHP David Hearne (2016)
SR LHP Michael Hearne (2016)
JR RHP Ryan Smoyer (2016)
JR LHP Jim Orwick (2016)
JR LHP Scott Tully (2016)
SR RHP Connor Hale (2016)
SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis (2016)
JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio (2016)
JR 2B/SS Kyle Fiala (2016)
SR SS Lane Richards (2016)
JR C Ryan Lidge (2016)
rSO OF Torii Hunter (2016)
SR C/OF Ricky Sanchez (2016)
SO RHP Brad Bass (2017)
SO LHP Sean Guenther (2017)
SO RHP Brandon Bielak (2017)
SO RHP Peter Solomon (2017)
SO RHP Evy Ruibal (2017)
SO OF Jake Johnson (2017)
FR OF Matt Vierling (2018)
FR RHP Connor Hock (2018)
FR RHP Chris Connolly (2018)
FR 3B Jake Singer (2018)
I like the collection of Notre Dame 2016 position player prospects quite a bit. We’re too removed to make any bold predictions about how pro teams will view them on draft day, but I can say with some confidence that this will be an entertaining offensive team to watch.
JR 2B Cavan Biggio, JR 2B Kyle Fiala, and SR SS Lane Richards make up three-fourths of what has to rank of one of college baseball’s most fun infields. Biggo has been covered before (search his name here and you’ll find plenty), but Fiala hasn’t gotten his time in the internet sun just yet. That needs to change. Compare these two sophomore seasons…
.258/.406/.462 – 50 BB/54 K – 14/16 SB – 221 AB
.301/.394/.452 – 31 BB/33 K – 10/12 SB – 239 AB
Top is Biggio, bottom is Fiala. That’s not to say that they are on the same prospect tier — there’s more than sophomore year stats that go into that equation — but Fiala is a damn good player. Middle infielders with the chance for average power, an above-average glove, average or better arm strength, and average or better speed that have done what he’s done in major college ball don’t grow on trees.
Of course, you wouldn’t know that thanks to the presence of Biggio. If you didn’t take my advice and search his name already, I’ve saved you the trouble by finding the most recent blurb written about him…
Without having seen every Notre Dame game the past two years — I’m good, but not that good — one might be confused as to how a player with Biggio’s pedigree and collection of scouting accolades (“line drive machine; born to hit; great pitch recognition; great approach, patient and aggressive all at once”…and that’s just what has been written here) could hit .250ish through two college seasons. I say we all agree to chalk it up to bad BABIP luck and eagerly anticipate a monster junior season that puts him squarely back in the first round mix where he belongs.
Biggio’s hit tool, patience, and ability to play important infield spots at a high level still have him at or near the first round range for me. Not sure if it’s instructive or not, but I like looking back at Biggio’s placement between Tyler O’Neill and Billy McKinney (the two hitters who signed pro deals that sandwiched Biggio in his initial draft year) and using that as a starting point as to what kind of hitter I think he can be as a professional. O’Neill if he sells out some of his patience and contact skills for power and McKinney if he keeps progressing as a hitter as is. McKinney in the infield is a pretty interesting prospect and one that I think can play his way into the first round even in a top-heavy year. Two pros that I’ve heard him compared to so far are Ryan Roberts (realistic floor) and Justin Turner (hopeful ceiling). I can see it.
Richards is an obvious step below, but there’s still pro upside in his game. Teams like guys who can defend, throw, and run like him, plus he has enough juice in his bat to at least make him a threat to occasionally knock one for extra bases. You can do worse for a mid- to late-round senior sign. SR C/OF Ricky Sanchez hasn’t done much in three seasons, but has flashed power and proven to be a dependable backstop if nothing else. JR C Ryan Lidge and rSO OF Torii Hunter both have damn fine bloodlines. They are very different players and prospects — Lidge is coming off an underrated 2015 season and is the more proven of the two while Hunter is know more for his speed, athleticism, and football skills at this point — but both are definite draft candidates to me. People may be surprised at how high I’ll eventually have Lidge on my personal list of college catchers. SR OF/LHP Zac Kutsulis doesn’t have a ton of power, but he’s a good athlete with a real knack for hard contact, above-average speed, and the strong arm you’d expect from a part-time pitcher.
The Notre Dame pitching staff doesn’t have quite the same level of prospects for 2016, but a part of me wonders if there’s an edict coming from the coaching staff about pitching to contact rather than going for whiffs. Some decent arms here are putting up fine earned run averages, but with dangerously low (in a prospecting sense) strikeouts per nine innings. If anybody who knows more about college ball and the Notre Dame team in particular knows what’s up here (if anything), let me know.
Take SR RHP Nick McCarty as one example. His stuff is fine: 87-90 FB, mid-70s breaking ball that flashes plus, and a usable change. He pitched well in 2016 (3.93 ERA in 68.2 IP), but did so while only striking out 4.59 batters per nine. Odd, right? SR LHP Michael Hearne (mid-80s FB, above-average CU that flashes plus, above-average command) kept runs of the board in 2016 (2.38 ERA in only 11.1 IP) without piling up strikeouts (3.98 K/9). SR RHP Connor Hale somehow pitched to a 1.33 ERA (20.1 IP) even though he only struck out 3.57 batters per nine. Maybe I’m easily amused, but this stuff blows my mind.
The only prospect I have listed who bucked this trend is JR LHP Scott Tully. He deserves a mention for his fine 2015 season: 8.68 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9 in 65.1 IP of 3.17 ERA ball. Of course he’s also one of the few Irish arms that I have with no meaningful notes on his stuff. JR RHP Ryan Smoyer kept runs off the board at an even better clip (2.27 ERA in 79.1 IP), but with nowhere near the same peripherals (3.75 K/9). He’s a big guy (6-4, 200) with decent stuff (88-91 FB, 77-80 SL), so we’ll wait and see if he starts missing a few more bats in 2016. What in the world is going on in South Bend?
Interestingly enough, I’ve had a few different people tell me that they think the best 2016 pitching prospect on the Notre Dame roster is SR RHP David Hearne. That’s the very same Hearne who hasn’t pitched much at all since 2013. The big (6-4, 220) righthander missed his share of bats that year (7.57 K/9 in 44.0 IP) with a fastball that got up to 93 and a nice mid- to upper-70s curve. If health and back to his old ways, he might make those who tipped me off to him look smart.
(The lowest K/9 of any of the impressive group of 2017 pitching prospects is 6.30. Every one of Brad Bass, Sean Guenther, Brandon Bielak, Peter Solomon, and Evy Ruibal has a chance to eventually go higher in the draft than any 2016 pitching prospect on the staff. Maybe it’s more of a talent thing than a coaching thing, after all. Who knows?)
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – North Carolina State
JR RHP Joe O’Donnell (2016)
rJR LHP Sean Adler (2016)
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2016)
JR RHP Cory Wilder (2016)
rSR LHP Travis Orwig (2016)
SR LHP Will Gilbert (2016)
rJR RHP Karl Keglovits (2016)
rSR RHP Kyle Smith (2016)
rSR RHP Chris Williams (2016)
rSO LHP Cody Beckman (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Williamson (2016)
JR C/3B Andrew Knizner (2016)
JR 1B Preston Palmeiro (2016)
SR SS Ryne Willard (2016)
SR C Chance Shepard (2016)
rSO OF Garrett Suggs (2016)
SO LHP Brian Brown (2017)
SO RHP Evan Mendoza (2017)
SO RHP/INF Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
rFR OF Storm Edwards (2017)
SO OF Josh McLain (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Dunand (2017)
SO 2B Stephen Pitarra (2017)
SO OF Brock Deatherage (2017)
FR SS/OF Xavier LeGrant (2018)
JR C Andrew Knizner is a fascinating prospect who doesn’t quite fit the mold of what one might think of a potential top five round college catcher. Defensively, he’s still very much out of sorts as a relatively new catcher but his athleticism and willingness to make it work could be enough for teams willing to take the long view on his pro future. Offensively, he’s a high contact hitter with excellent plate coverage and power that has a chance to be average or better as he continues to add strength. I tend to give players new to a demanding defensive position the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible, so I’m fine with riding out another half-season or so of shaky defense behind the plate before beginning to ask the question whether or not Knizner has what it takes to be a catcher full-time in the pros. Almost no matter what transpires on the field this year, I can’t see a team drafting Knizner high enough that he’s signable with the intention of at least continuing to try him as a catcher for the foreseeable future. He’s good enough in other areas that it’s not quite a catcher or bust proposition for him, but that depends on how high one’s expectations are for him at this point.
SR C Chance Shepard might be overlooked as the second catcher on a team with a big prospect ahead of him like Knizner, but that shouldn’t be the case. He’s a big guy with power who can handle himself fine defensively. If he gets a chance to play more I think more people will take notice of him as a viable pro prospect.
I’m still on the fence some about JR 1B Preston Palmeiro, but he has some very vocal fans out there who love his swing and think he has a chance to be an average or better hitter with above-average power production. Being a primary first base prospect at the amateur level is a tricky thing with a bit more to it than many — myself included — think about. On the one hand, it’s obvious that being limited defensively to first base drastically increases the threshold of entry to professional baseball as a hitter. You need to hit and hit and hit to make it. On the other hand, there simply isn’t the same competition at first base at the amateur level as there is at other spots. I know that many a big league first baseman played elsewhere along the way, but if we’re just talking about getting drafted in the first place then the competitive field begins to look a lot thinner. In other words, if Palmeiro goes out and hits the shit out of the ball all spring, then what’s to stop a team from valuing that bat higher than we’re conditioned to think because of the relative lack of options to be found later in the draft? Up the middle players are wonderful and we know they dominate these drafts for a reason, but with offensive production (power, especially) growing increasingly scarce at the highest level perhaps the place for a big bat a team believes in will come sooner on draft day.
(This may totally undercut the previous point, but it’s crazy enough to me that I don’t mind. You want the list of first day college first basemen taken since I started the site back in 2009? We’ve got Chris Shaw, Casey Gillaspie, CJ Cron, and…that’s it. Three guys in seven drafts. That probably shouldn’t amaze me, but it does. As we’ve repeated already, many first basemen are made and not born. College first day guys who can also handle and may eventually play 1B full-time include Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, and Stephen Piscotty. I think all can be corner outfielders at worst, but reasonable minds may disagree. If you’re feeling kind you could also add Bryce Brentz, Kyle Parker, and Michael Choice to that list. I’m not sure I see a future big league first baseman of worth out of that trio, but you never know, right? I suppose the point here is that recent historical trends point towards college first basemen lasting longer than one might think. Or maybe it’s a coincidence based on the fact that we’ve had an unusually underwhelming group of college sluggers in this time frame. Or maybe it’s an arbitrary endpoints thing. Who knows!)
JR RHP Cory Wilder might have to go by Cory Wildest if he has another season like his past one. From a performance perspective, the good (11.06 K/9 and 3.50 ERA in 64.1 IP) outweighed the bad (8.26 BB/9) and his stuff has always been on point (88-94 fastball that hits 95 with an average or better breaking ball that flashes plus and a usable low- to mid-80s change), so the package on balance is appealing in spite of his wild ways. Even a small jump in improved control will have him flying up boards this spring. He’s the current 1b to JR RHP Joe O’Donnell’s 1a when ranking the team’s 2016 pitching prospects. O’Donnell has the best shot of any member of the team’s 2016 pitching staff to continue starting as a professional. He’s got the sinker/slider combo at the top (some have called his breaking ball a curve, FWIW), a low-80s changeup with average upside, and no red flags with command, control, delivery, or size. I’m a fan.
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte might be the most interesting Wolfpack pitching prospect to a casual fan. I’d venture that guess based on Piedmonte’s size (6-8, 240) more than any other factor. Big guys always get extra attention. Vince McMahon was on to something, I guess. Piedmonte is more than just a monster on the mound, of course. He’s got a good fastball (88-92, 93 peak), a pair of breaking balls with average upside, and a change that he can at least work in from time to time. The size undeniably makes him that much more appealing, so keep an eye on whether or not he can sharpen up one of his two main offspeed pitches and get his mechanics in order this spring.
rSR RHP Kyle Smith might be the most interesting Wolfpack pitching prospect to me. I won’t pretend to know a ton about him just yet, but everything I’ve read and heard is quite intriguing. We know he’s a fantastic athlete with a big arm (90-96 FB) and a slider with promise. We don’t yet know he’ll perform under the bright lights of ACC competition. I’m obviously bullish on his future and will be keeping close tabs on him all spring. I try to be stingy with my FAVORITE designations in my notes — obvious early round players that I like along with everybody else, like Zack Collins of Miami from yesterday’s preview, aren’t given the nod — so it’s worth mentioning that Smith is the first guy profiled so far to get the honor.
SR LHP Will Gilbert gets a mention for missing bats (9.89 K/9 last year) with average stuff (upper-80s FB, average breaking ball) and not much size (5-11, 160). JR LHP Ryan Williamson is similar yet better in most of those areas: 11.04 K/9 last year, 87-92 FB, average upper-70s slider, and listed at 6-3, 200 pounds. That said, if run prevention is your thing then Gilbert (2.47 ERA) tops Williamson (5.17 ERA) based on what they both did last year. rSR LHP Travis Orwig tops them both in that area (1.85 ERA) and offers a decent compromise in terms of stuff (88-92 FB, average or better mid-70s curve) and size (6-2, 210). I don’t have a clever way of tying in rJR LHP Sean Adler into this discussion other than to point out that we’ve got ourselves yet another North Carolina State lefthanded pitching prospect of note. The transfer from USC has some projection left that gives hope he’ll continue to add on to a fastball that lives 85-90 (92 peak).
I’m fairly certain rJR RHP Karl Keglovits is on my top ten list of players I’ve written about the most disproportionate to their draft impact to date. His size (6-6, 230) and movement on his fastball continue to make him an arm I can’t quit, but the next sustained run of effective innings at the college level will be his first.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Florida State
rSR RHP Mike Compton (2016)
rJR LHP Alex Diese (2016)
rSO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
JR LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rSO RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
JR RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
rSO RHP Will Zirzow (2016)
rSR LHP Matt Kinney (2016)
rSR RHP Logan Warmouth (2016)
JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SR 2B/SS John Sansone (2016)
JR C/OF Gage West (2016)
JR 1B/OF Hank Truluck (2016)
JR SS/2B Matt Henderson (2016)
JR C Bryan Bussey (2016)
FR LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
SO RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
rFR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SO RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
SO OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)
SO C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
SO SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
SO SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR RHP Cole Sands (2018)
FR LHP Jared Middleton (2018)
FR RHP Chase Haney (2018)
FR RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
FR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
FR C Caleb Raleigh (2018)
FR C/OF Jackson Lueck (2018)
FR OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
I haven’t seen (or heard from those who have seen) enough of JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio to offer a strong take on his professional future. Much of what I can share likely qualifies under “stuff I already know,” assuming you’ve come to this site willingly and under your own accord. DeLuzio is a fantastic athlete with easy plus foot speed, real arm strength, a quick bat, and average or better raw power. I’ve heard from some in the know who believe he’ll be tried back in the infield depending on how open-minded his drafting team is, but the backup plan of having him glide under balls from pole to pole in center isn’t bad, either.
As is the case with many players who have a bushel of tools rattled off at the top of their dossier, the big question surrounding DeLuzio is how much he’ll hit and whether or not his approach will ever improve enough to allow him to tap into his raw power and considerable athletic ability. In this way, he’s similar to many of this year’s draft’s top college prospects while also being a fascinating outlier in history of the Seminoles hitters. He’s not DJ Stewart. He’s not Stephen or Mike McGee. He’s not James Ramsey or Jayce Boyd or Devon Travis or Tyler Holt. That’s both a good and bad thing. I’m not a Florida State historian so I’m sure I’ll hear from fans of the team via email for this, but a case could be made that he’s the highest upside athlete to play in Tallahassee since Buster Posey. Maybe you could argue Taiwan Easterling, D’Vontrey Richardson, or Justin Gonzalez, but the point is that DeLuzio would be at or near the top of the list over the past decade or so. For all his gifts, however, DeLuzio still swings and misses a lot. That’s not a trait shared by the aforementioned Stewart, McGee’s, Ramsey, Boyd, Travis, or Holt. Of that group, the guy he is most similar to both athletically and from a plate discipline standpoint is Travis. In no way is it a direct comparison, but a bigger Devon Travis isn’t the worst frame of reference to what DeLuzio could be. DeLuzio needs to find out whatever it is that helped Travis make the jump from athletic yet raw college hacker to athletic yet refined professional hitter. If I knew what it took or could predict a breakout, I’d…well, I’d probably still be doing this because babies and mortgages are expensive and entry level baseball jobs are for men and women much younger than myself.
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte is more of a classic FSU hitter (.297/.391/.445 with 22 BB/19 K) with a reasonable shot to get drafted if he can do similar things in 2016. SR 2B/SS John Sansome has some sneaky pop and defensive versatility. JR C/OF Gage West needs at bats, but everybody I’ve spoken to about him see a breakout season ahead.
Was rSR RHP Mike Compton’s standout 2015 season an example of an older pitcher taking advantage of overmatched teenage competition or a return to 100% health after missing the 2013 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery? It’ll be hard to answer that question with much certainty in 2016 now that the fifth-year senior has put another year between himself and the opposition, but a repeat of his excellent season (jumped from 5.36 K/9 in 2014 to 8.87 K/9 in 2015) will definitely put him on the draft radar. I like Compton as a gritty college performer with enough stuff (highlighted by mid-80s sinkers and above-average low-70s curves), a deceptive motion, impeccable fastball command, and a veteran big league pitcher’s knowledge of the craft. He’d be a mid- to late-round target if I had a say in a draft room. Both rSO RHP Ed Voyles and JR RHP Jim Voyles have the size (6-7, 200) and stuff (CU for Ed, SL for Jim) to get hitters out if they can get and stay on a mound. Jim did good work last year, so he’s currently ahead but the two figure to be as close as you’d expect on rankings throughout the spring. I’ve heard good things about rSO RHP Andy Ward (up to 93, nice slider) as a potential relief prospect if he can stay healthy.
rJR LHP Alex Diese hasn’t gotten a ton of exposure (just 16.1 IP last year), but he’s got enough fastball and flashes two really promising offspeed pitches (plus CU and average or better CB). If it all comes together for him, he could shoot up boards. JR LHP Alec Byrd isn’t too far off stuff-wise with some projection left in his 6-4, 180 pound frame. That’s good for almost half a foot on rSO RHP Taylor Blatch, the 5-11, 160 pound athlete capable of running it up to the low- to mid-90s on his best day. If he can curtail some of his wildness, he could join the rest of this group as a potential draft possibility.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Duke
JR RHP Bailey Clark (2016)
rSO RHP Karl Blum (2016)
rSO LHP Jim Ziemba (2016)
SR LHP Nick Hendrix (2016)
rSR RHP Conner Stevens (2016)
JR LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2016)
rSR LHP Trent Swart (2016)
rSR RHP Kellen Urbon (2016)
rJR OF Jalen Phillips (2016)
JR C Cristian Perez (2016)
SO LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
SO LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)
SO RHP/SS Ryan Day (2017)
SO 3B/RHP Jack Labosky (2017)
SO 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
SO 3B/SS Max Miller (2017)
SO 2B/OF Peter Zyla (2017)
SO OF Michael Smicicklas (2017)
SO OF Evan Dougherty (2017)
FR RHP Al Pesto (2018)
FR OF Keyston Fuller (2018)
FR OF Kennie Taylor (2018)
FR OF Jimmy Herron (2018)
FR SS Zack Kone (2018)
FR SS Zack Kesterson (2018)
FR OF Griffin Conine (2018)
JR RHP Bailey Clark was ranked 47th on the initial 2016 MLB Draft prospect list (college only) back in October. This was what was written then…
Poised for a big potential rise in 2016, Clark has the kind of stuff that blows you away on his best days and leaves you wanting more on his not so best days. I think he puts it all together this year and makes this ranking look foolish by June.
…and obviously not much has changed in the two months since. Clark pitched really well last year (2.95 ERA in 58 IP), but fell just short in terms of peripherals (7.60 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9) where many of the recent first day college starting pitchers have finished in recent years. That’s a very simplistic, surface-level analysis of his 2015 performance, but it runs parallel with the scouting reports from many who saw him this past spring. Clark is really good, but still leaves you wanting more. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — being a finished product at 20-years-old is more of a negative than a positive in the eyes of many in the scouting world — but it speaks to the developmental challenges facing Clark if he wants to jump up into the first round mix. The fastball (88-94, 96 peak) is there, the size (6-5, 210) is there, and the athleticism is there, so it’ll come down to gaining more command and consistency on his mid-80s cut-SL (a knockout pitch when on) and trusting his nascent changeup in game action enough to give scouts an honest opportunity to assess it. Even if little changes with Clark between now and June, we’re still talking a top five round lock with the high-floor possibility of future late-inning reliever. If he makes the expected leap in 2016, then the first round will have to make room for one more college arm.
JR C Cristian Perez and rJR OF Jalen Phillips are both “show-me” prospects at this stage. Both are physically advanced and full of intriguing tools, but still very rough around the edges when it comes to demonstrating consistent professional baseball skills. It’s not a stretch at all to see one or both guys wind up in the top ten rounds: Perez has a unique blend of athleticism, physical strength, power upside, and defensive promise behind the plate while Phillips is an average or better runner with an elite throwing arm. Holding them back offensively is an all-or-nothing approach to hitting that led to a combined 31 BB/108 K ratio last season. If either player begins taking better at bats, then they’ll move up these rankings quickly. Until then, however, I’ll remain bearish on their professional futures.
Neither rSO RHP Karl Blum nor rSO LHP Jim Ziemba have the type of track records typically associated with potential top ten round guys, but both could reach that level by June. Blum is a strike-thrower with a nice fastball (88-92 with more coming) and above-average breaking ball, plus plenty of size (6-5, 210) and athleticism. The 6-10, 230 pound Ziemba tops him in the size department and matches him in terms of present stuff. The big righthander was all kinds of wild in a small sample (9.2 IP) last season, but has the kind of ability to do major damage down the line with his funky sidearm delivery if he can get his mechanics in check.
SR LHP Nick Hendrix and rSR LHP Trent Swart could get looks as matchup lefty relievers. I’ve always had a soft spot for Swart, a changeup specialist with enough fastball (mid- to upper-80s) and deception to mess with the timing of good hitters. If he’s healthy after missing last year (Tommy John surgery), then there’s no reason he won’t get some sort of a shot in pro ball. Cornell transfer rSR RHP Kellen Urbon joins them as a potential mid- to late-round relief prospect of note.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Clemson
SR RHP Clate Schmidt (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2016)
rJR RHP Wales Toney (2016)
rJR RHP Garrett Lovorn (2016)
JR LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
JR LHP Pat Krall (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Towns (2016)
rSO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana (2016)
JR C Chris Okey (2016)
JR SS/2B Eli White (2016)
JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2016)
rSO 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2016)
FR LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
SO LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
SO RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
SO 2B Adam Renwick (2017)
SO OF Chase Pinder (2017)
rFR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
SO OF Drew Wharton (2017)
SO C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
FR RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
FR RHP Zach Goodman (2018)
FR RHP Graham Lawson (2018)
FR RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
FR RHP Tom Walker (2018)
FR RHP Andrew Papp (2018)
FR C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
JR C Chris Okey is in a great position heading into his draft year as an athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit. In today’s game, that’s exactly what big league teams want in a catcher, especially if you throw in the (overrated by the internet in terms of importance, but not altogether unimportant) ability to frame pitches. As I’ve written about countless times before (including the quoted Okey blurb from October you can read below), as the run environment has shifted away from the highest highs of the PED-era so too has the general preference for athleticism and defensive reliability behind the plate. This shift has come largely at the expense of big power and raw arm strength at the position. Mobility, flexibility, and fundamentally sound glovework is what moves the needle now. I’m thinking of recent early picks like Taylor Ward, Max Pentecost, Reese McGuire, and Justin O’Conner as the prototypes for this latest wave. Athletes like Russell Martin, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy, and Buster Posey (the man I remember watching play a decent shortstop once upon a time at Florida State) all represent the best case scenario for this player archetype; not coincidentally, those guys all rank in the top nine in fWAR since 2010 with a lot of their value tied up in excellent defensive numbers.
So what does any of this really have to do with Okey? While it’s great that he ticks off many of the boxes that teams like in a catching prospect, nobody is drafting a theoretical catcher archetype. Okey may be a fine example of the modern catcher, but that doesn’t mean he’s a slam dunk first round catcher. Here’s what I wrote about him a few months back…
Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as [Matt] Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.
That all holds up today (obviously…it’s been two months!), but it should be noted that the nice things said about his game are a step below what many (myself included) were saying about him after his senior season of high school. His defense behind the plate never quite reached the threshold where you’d call any one component of his game consistently plus. He’s shown some plus pop times in the past, sure, but not as often as average to above-average times. I don’t think anybody would have imagined he’d get more athletic past his teenage years — time has a way of catching up to everybody — but there is a little bit more stiffness to him at present than you might think if going off those old scouting reports. He’s still the athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit that we mentioned at the top. And if we’re going to call him out some for slipping a bit — or, perhaps more accurately, not developing as hoped — with the glove, then it’s only right to praise him for the maturation of his power. What was once considered promising but far off has turned into displays of average or better present power with the shot at plus raw still out there. I’d err on the side of caution with his future power grade and put him closer to the average to above-average range where it currently plays, but that still means he could be a steady 15-20 home run bat at his peak. One interesting name that I heard as a comparison that makes a little bit of sense: Mike Lieberthal.
I still like Matt Thaiss as the draft’s top college catcher (with Zack Collins and the reports of his improved defense coming on very fast), but Okey and a host of others remain just a half-step behind as we enter the spring season.
JR SS/2B Eli White and JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson should make up what looks to be one of college ball’s most fascinating left sides of the infield. Neither White, an unsigned 37th round pick as a draft-eligible sophomore last season, nor Wilson, a former shortstop who has grown nicely into a prototypical third baseman, have the kind of plate discipline to profile as future regulars at this point, but the tools are loud. White is a good athlete who can really run with tons of bat speed and a high probability of sticking at shortstop. I compared him to Daniel Pinero last year and think he could have a similar impact in 2016. Wilson was a big favorite out of high school because of his intriguing defensive tools and emerging power. Each player still has both a lot to work on and a lot to work with.
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson remains intriguing as a speedy athlete lottery ticket. rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman might hit his way onto rankings by the end of the season. rSO 3B Glenn Batson has flashed power upside, but is still a long way away in terms of approach.
SR RHP Clate Schmidt has overcome a great deal to get back to position himself to a return to the mound this spring. His athleticism, fastball (90-94, 96 peak), and impressive low-80s slider make him a prospect to watch, and his story of perseverance makes him a player to appreciate. If the return to health in 2016 has him feeling more like himself this spring (i.e., he’s more 2014 than 2015), then his feel-good story should end with a potential top ten round draft selection and honest shot in pro ball.
JR LHP Alex Bostic lives in the low-90s from the left side with an average or better upper-70s breaking ball. That’ll get you noticed. rJR RHP Wales Toney has always been a favorite of mine thanks to his quality stuff (88-92 FB, up to 95) and raw yet interesting offspeed repertoire. I think having a memorable name probably helps, too. I have much love for JR LHP Pat Krall, one of the last few survivors of the Temple program still kicking around college ball. He’s more than just a good story as his ability to miss bats (9.0 K/9 in 38 IP last year) with reasonably solid stuff (upper-80s FB, usable CU) from the left side make him a potential late-round prospect. rSO RHP Drew Moyer pitched really well in limited innings last season. He’s got the stuff to back it up (low-90s FB, advanced CU), so keep him in mind this spring. rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana is a little bit like the pitching version of Maleeke Gibson to me. I see his size (6-6, 225) and wonder what he could do if the stars aligned, but so far fortune hasn’t been on his side. Maybe this is the year he can get regular time — pitching or hitting, I’m not picky — and show off what he can really do. Getting rSR RHP Patrick Andrews back is both good for the 2016 Clemson team and for fans of large-bodied (6-4, 240) righthanded pitchers who can crank it up to the mid-90s (88-92 FB, 94-95 peak). Add in an average or better slider and you’ve got a potential relief prospect if he can stay healthy.
Two guys to watch out for in future drafts that aren’t yet listed on the Clemson roster: SO SS Grayson Byrd and FR OF Seth Beer.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Boston College
SR LHP Jesse Adams (2016)
SR RHP John Nicklas (2016)
JR RHP Justin Dunn (2016)
JR RHP Mike King (2016)
JR RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2016)
SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin (2016)
SR OF Logan Hoggarth (2016)
SR C Stephen Sauter (2016)
JR SS/3B Johnny Adams (2016)
JR C Nick Sciortino (2016)
JR OF/RHP Michael Strem (2016)
SO RHP/OF Donovan Casey (2017)
SO 3B Jake Palomaki (2017)
FR RHP Jacob Stevens (2017)
FR C Gian Martellini (2018)
SR LHP Jesse Adams is not particularly big nor does he throw particularly hard, but he’s been consistently effective and figures to remain so as a professional. I think there’s clear matchup lefthanded reliever upside to him with the chance that a team less concerned about his size and more enamored with his three-pitch mix (87-91 FB, above-average mid-70s CB, upper-70s CU) will let him keep starting. SR RHP John Nicklas is a step below as a prospect, but has some of the qualities (88-92 FB, interesting low-80s breaking ball, undersized) you see in late round relief fliers.
JR RHP Justin Dunn has the chance to have the kind of big junior season that puts him in the top five round conversation this June. Like Adams and Nicklas, Dunn’s size might be a turn-off for some teams. Unlike those guys, it figures to be easier to overlook because of a potent fastball/breaking ball one-two punch. Though he’s matured as a pitcher in many ways since enrolling at BC, he’s still a little rough around the edges with respect to both his command and control. His arm speed (consistently 90-94, up to 96) and that aforementioned low-80s slider are what put him in the early round mix. If he can continue to make strides with his command and control and gain a little consistency with a third pitch (he’s shown both a CB and a CU already, but both need work), then he’ll really rise. That’s a pretty obvious statement now that I read it back, but I think it probably can apply to about 75% of draft prospects before the season begins. No sense in hiding from it, I suppose.
For as much as I personally like Dunn, others have JR RHP Mike King as Boston College’s top prospect (pitching or otherwise) heading into 2016. Frankly, it’s hard to argue. I mean, I had planned to do just that in this very space, but have mentally backtracked before I even got the chance to start. King has a solid heater (88-92, 93 peak), above-average low-80s changeup, and outstanding overall command. If one of his two breaking pitches sharpens up, then he’s a threat to crash the top five rounds just like Dunn. If you’re keeping score, I’d give the advantages of command, control, frame, and track record to King. It also shouldn’t be discounted that his name sounds like “viking” when said quickly. Dunn gets the edge in fastball velocity, all-around bat-missing stuff (this is double-counting his fastball some, but I’d say his slider is more of a strikeout pitch than King’s change, even while acknowledging that they are both more or less equally effective pitches) and athleticism. I’ll stick with the claim that both have top five round upside, but hedge some and say it’s more likely they wind up in the six to ten round range, where they’d be potential steals. Bonus prediction: Dunn gets drafted higher this June, but King winds up the (slightly) better long-term professional player.
Offensively, there’s no Chris Shaw to carry the prospect mantle this year. I don’t know much about JR OF Michael Strem, but he hit well last year (.296/.379/.437 in 206 AB) so he’s on the radar for me now. SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin and JR SS/3B Johnny Adams are steady gloves who can hold down any infield spot with relative ease. I think Adams still has upside he’s not yet tapped into, so keep his name in the back of your mind when thinking deep sleeper college middle infielders. SR C Stephen Sauter (little more offense) and JR C Nick Sciortino (little more defense) form a pretty nice college catching tandem with a little bit of pro upside.
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview: HS Outfielders
In 2013, we had Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier battle down to the wire to see which prep outfielder from the state of Georgia would wind up the first off the board. In 2016, we’re set to have Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford, both from California, go back and forth until June to see who goes higher. Forced narrative or something more? I’m inclined to say it’s more than former than the latter –considering it’s a narrative I personally made up mere minutes ago, that should make some sense – but suggesting that the two head-to-head battles run parallel in some ways isn’t crazy. Despite some internet comparisons that paint him as the Meadows, I think the better proxy for Rutherford is Frazier. Issues with handedness, height, and hair hue aside, Frazier as a starting point for Rutherford (offensively only as Frazier’s arm strength blows the average-ish arm of Rutherford away) can be used because the two both have really good looking well-balanced swings, tons of bat speed, and significant raw power. The parallel gets a little bit of extra juice when you consider Frazier and Rutherford were/are also both a little bit older than their draft counterparts.
The extra bit of youth isn’t what gives Moniak the edge for me, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. What separates Moniak at this present moment is his ability to hit the ball hard everywhere. Sometimes simplistic analysis works. The manner in which Moniak sprays line drives and deep flies to all fields resembles something a ten-year veteran who flirts with batting titles season after season does during BP. Trading off a little bit of Rutherford’s power for Moniak’s hit tool and approach (both in his mindfulness as a hitter and his plate discipline) are worth it for me. Of course, check back with me in a few months…I had Meadows ahead of Frazier for a long time before giving in to the latter’s arm, power, and approach (as a whole-fields power hitter, not necessarily as an OBP machine). History may yet repeat itself, but I’ll take Moniak for now.
I know more than a few Phillies fans that are dreaming about a 1-2 punch of Jason Groome and Brandon McIlwain at the top of the draft. The obvious tie-in for the casual fan is that both players are local, but bonus demands are what make it truly interesting. Money saved on a high school arm with the first pick could end up spend on the draft’s top two-sport talent only available so late due to a high price tag. McIlwain has game-changing speed, athleticism that ranks at or near the top of the entire class, and the kind of bat speed, coordination, and pitch recognition that is typically not associated with a four-star QB recruit. Check this out…
[He] has true bat speed and strength, and makes adjustments against better pitching. His other tools are outrageous: he’s a plus-plus runner with Gold Glove potential in center field and a strong throwing arm that grades out above-average as well. [He] plays with supreme confidence that goes hand-in-hand with his well-above-average athletic ability.
That’s Baseball America’s pre-draft report on Donavan Tate. I think there are definitely some similarities between the amateur version of Tate and McIlwain now. I’m not suggesting McIlwain will rise to Tate’s draft heights (3rd overall pick) nor do I think McIlwain’s pro career will go up in smoke like Tate’s, but simply looking at their respective tool sets as amateurs shows many similarities. I liked Tate a lot then, so it should be no shock that I like McIlwain a lot now.
Will Benson has gotten the Jason Heyward comp for just about a full year now because that’s what happens when you’re a Georgia high school player built like he is (6-6, 220) with a future right fielder profile. The comparison ceases to work when you factor in pesky factors beyond size and geography; the inclusion of baseball ability (defense and plate discipline, most notably) muddles it up, but it’s still good fun at this point in the draft process. Even though he’s not Heyward, Benson does a lot well. He’s got electric bat speed, he moves really well for a big guy, and he’s as strong as you’d expect from looking at him. If he cleans up his approach and keeps working on his defense then maybe those Heyward comparisons will begin to look a little bit smarter. Or not! It’s December and we’re talking about teenagers, so nothing is written in ink.
The gap between Benson and Avery Tuck is as tiny as it gets. I can easily see Tuck being the first of the two off the board; in fact, he might be the most likely contender of the current top tier prospects to knock Moniak/Rutherford out of the number one spot for the position group. Like Benson, Tuck is a physical specimen who looks like he was born to put on the uniform. He’s strong (though not quite on Benson’s level) with room to fill out, he’s got a really strong arm, and his athleticism is second to none. There is some swing-and-miss to his game (like Benson) that will have to be addressed, but if he can even approach an average future hit tool…well, that’s a top fifteen pick with the chance to rise higher than that. My personal feelings about Tuck’s power align with what I think about Carlos Cortes’s hit tool. In my conversations with people smarter than myself (impossible, right?), there seem to be far more questions about each (Tuck’s power, Cortes’s hit) than what I’ve seen with my novice eyes. So, as with the conversation on Cortes, if you want the consensus that I’ve gotten, then consider Tuck a really promising potential first round outfielder with average or better raw power, tons of bat speed, elite athleticism, and some real contact questions. If you want my own amateur view, then consider all that accurate but up the power to an easy plus (25+ HR at peak) with the kind of present power not typically seen in guys his age.
Alex Kirilloff is a clear step down athletically from the rest of the top tier, but, man, can he hit. If I would have kept him at first base on these rankings then there’s no question he would have finished atop that position list. He’s behind potential stars like Moniak, Rutherford, McIlwain, Benson, and Tuck for now, but that’s for reasons of defensive upside and athleticism more than anything. By June, Kirilloff’s bat might be too loud to be behind a few of those names. Seeing him this spring is a high priority for me; considering his high school plays home games about five hours away from me (to those that don’t know: Pennsylvania is a sneaky long state), that should say a lot about what I think of him as a prospect. The fact that I could stop off and get a Colossal Fish & Cheese sandwich (delicious on its own and made better with the side of nostalgia that comes with it as it was part of my first official meal as a married man last summer) only sweetens the deal. Recent draft trends have pushed athletic prep outfielders up draft boards at the expense of bigger bats, but I think Kirilloff is good enough to break through.
OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep HS, California)
OF Brandon McIlwain (Council Rock North HS, Pennsylvania)
OF/1B Will Benson (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
OF Avery Tuck (Steele Canyon HS, California)
OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (Plum HS, Pennsylvania)
OF Jaren Shelby (Tates Creek HS, Kentucky)
OF Akil Baddoo (Salem HS, Georgia)
OF Chase Cheek (Phillips HS, Florida)
OF Garrett Hodges (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Francisco Del Valle (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
OF Taylor Trammel (Mt. Paran Christian HS, Georgia)
OF Josh Stephen (Mater Dei HS, California)
OF/LHP Khalil Lee (Flint Hill HS, Virginia)
OF Christian Long (Westside HS, Texas)
OF Dean Looney (Butler HS, North Carolina)
OF Ronald Washington (Ridge Point HS, Texas)
OF Kobie Taylor (Portsmouth HS, New Hampshire)
OF Keenan Bell (Episcopal HS, Florida)
OF Thomas Jones (Laurens 55 HS, South Carolina)
OF/LHP Austin Langworthy (Williston HS, Florida)
OF Trace Bucey (Carroll HS, Texas)
OF Michael Farley (Chico HS, California)
OF Jordan Wiley (Richland HS, Texas)
OF/LHP Andrew Baker (Ridge Community HS, Florida)
OF Langston Watkins (Louisville Male HS, Kentucky)
OF Andre Nnebe (St. Mary’s HS, California)
OF Wyatt Featherston (Green Mountain HS, Colorado)
OF Dominic Fletcher (Cypress HS, California)
OF Bailin Markridge (O’Connor HS, Arizona)
OF Dalton Griffin (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Dominic Clementi (Arrowhead HS, Wisconsin)
OF EP Reese (North Davidson HS, North Carolina)
OF Connor Capel (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)
OF Spencer Taylor (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF/RHP Trevor Boone (Tulsa Memorial HS, Oklahoma)
OF Terence Norman (Kennesaw Mountain HS, Georgia)
OF Jose Layer (Colegio Angel David, Puerto Rico)
OF Jarrett Finger (Grandview HS, Colorado)
OF Ryan Mejia (Alonso HS, Florida)
OF Marcus Mack (Bellaire HS, Texas)
OF Gabe Simons (Ada HS, Oklahoma)
OF Robert Bullard (Thurgood Marshall HS, Texas)
OF Matthew Fraizer (Clovis North HS, California)
OF Caleb Green (Metter HS, Georgia)
OF/LHP Kyle Stowers (Christian HS, California)
OF Luke Lalumia (Grand Ledge HS, Michigan)
OF Raymond Hernandez (Fernando Ledesma Continuation, Puerto Rico)
OF Nick Neville (IMG Academy, Florida)
OF Raymond Salaman (Luis Hernaiz Verone HS, Puerto Rico)
OF Ryan Brown (St. James HS, Maryland)
OF Denilson Elligson (Graceville HS, Florida)
OF/RHP Brandon Fraley (Caravel Academy, Delaware)
OF Kingsley Ballao (Maui HS, Hawaii)
OF Dylan Hirsch (El Camino Real HS, California)
OF Hunter Judd (Knoxville Catholic HS, Tennessee)
OF Landon Silver (Huntington Beach HS, California)
OF Juan Carlos Abreu (Winter Springs HS, Florida)
OF Cameron Blake (Round Rock HS, Texas)
OF Jerrette Lee (Columbus HS, Georgia)
OF Brock Anderson (Sparkman HS, Alabama)
OF/3B Armani Smith (De La Salle HS, California)
OF Chase Murray (Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy, Ohio)
OF Michael Wilson (Colonia HS, New Jersey)
OF Colin Brophy (Notre Dame HS, California)
OF Brad Demco (Lake Travis HS, Texas)
OF Jalen Harrison (St. Anne’s-Belfield HS, Virginia)
OF Keegan Snowbarger (St. Xavier HS, Kentucky)
OF Jeremy Ydens (St. Francis HS, California)
OF Nick Howie (Garth Webb SS, Ontario)
OF Clayton Keyes (Bishop Carroll HS, Alberta)
OF Dante Baldelli (Bishop Hendricken HS, Rhode Island)
OF Tremaine Spears (Tioga HS, Louisiana)
OF Aldrich De Jongh (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Alvaro Valdez (Westminster Christian HS, Florida)
OF Ryan Novis (Corona Del Sol HS, Arizona)
OF Mason Nadeau (North Penn HS, Pennsylvania)
OF Jack Suwinski (Taft HS, Illinois)
OF Nikolas Dague (Sickles HS, Florida)
OF Joe Faulkner (Cumberland Gap HS, Tennessee)
OF Donnie Gleneski (Bishop Kenny HS, Florida)
OF Eric Rivera (Flanagan HS, Florida)
OF Jordan McFarland (Waterloo HS, Illinois)
OF Christian Moya (South Hills HS, California)
OF Tony Schultz (Saints Peter and Paul HS, Maryland)
OF Ben Lewis (Horizon HS, Arizona)
The Baseball Draft Report 