Home » Mock Draft
Category Archives: Mock Draft
1.1 Washington Nationals: CC of Southern Nevada FR C Bryce Harper
1.2 Pittsburgh Pirates: The Woodlands HS (Texas) RHP Jameson Taillon
1.3 Baltimore Orioles: Brito Private HS (Florida) SS Manny Machado
1.4 Kansas City Royals: Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz
1.5 Cleveland Indians: Ball State JR 2B Kolbrin Vitek
1.6 Arizona Diamondbacks: Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale
1.7 New York Mets: Chipley HS (Florida) RHP Karsten Whitson
1.8 Houston Astros: UT-Arlington JR OF Michael Choice
1.9 San Diego Padres: Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire
1.10 Oakland Athletics: Harvard Westlake HS (California) Austin Wilson
1.11 Toronto Blue Jays: Oviedo HS (Florida) RHP AJ Cole
1.12 Cincinnati Reds: Arkansas SO 3B Zack Cox
1.13 Chicago White Sox: Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman
1.14 Milwaukee Brewers: Bishop Blanchett HS (Washington) OF Josh Sale
1.15 Texas Rangers: East Coweta HS (Georgia) Cam Bedrosian
1.16 Chicago Cubs: Louisiana State JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo
1.17 Tampa Bay Rays: Miami JR C Yasmani Grandal
1.18 Los Angeles Angels: Archbishop McCarthy HS (Florida) 3B Nick Castellanos
1.19 Houston Astros: Tattnall Square Academy (Georgia) RHP DeAndre Smelter
1.20 Boston Red Sox: Cowan HS (Indiana) SS/C Justin O’Conner
1.21 Minnesota Twins: Cal State Fullerton JR SS Christian Colon
1.22 Texas Rangers: Kentucky/Grand Prairie AirHogs LHP James Paxton
1.23 Florida Marlins: Maranatha HS (California) RHP Dylan Covey
1.24 San Francisco Giants: Middle Tennessee State JR OF Bryce Brentz
1.25 St. Louis Cardinals: North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
1.26 Colorado Rockies: Dana Hills HS (California) RHP Peter Tago
1.27 Philadelphia Phillies: Lakeland HS (Florida) 3B Yordy Cabrera
1.28 Los Angeles Dodgers: Grandview HS (Colorado) RHP Kevin Gausman
1.29 Los Angeles Angels: Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn
1.30 Los Angeles Angels: San Diego SO LHP Sammy Solis
1.31 Tampa Bay Rays: St Edward HS (Ohio) RHP Stetson Allie
1.32 New York Yankees: Cook County HS (Georgia) RHP/3B Kaleb Cowart
There will be full commentary added as the day goes along, but for now check out comments on the top ten after the jump…
1.1 Washington Nationals: C Bryce Harper – College of Southern Nevada
Steven Strasburg is going first overall in this draft. Book it. One man by his lonesome may not be able to turn a baseball team’s on-field fortunes around, but it only takes one superstar to revive public interest in a moribund franchise. If nothing else, Strasburg has the kind of arm that makes every fifth day a must-see event. He’s got the oft-cited, but impossible to quantify “it”…wait, whoops. This was the intro to my first mock of 2009. Luckily it still works with a couple of easy tweaks. Let’s try it out…
Bryce Harper is going first overall in this draft. Book it. Two men may not be able to turn a baseball team’s on-field fortunes around, but it only takes one superstar position player and one superstar starting pitcher to revive interest in a moribund franchise. Harper has such a head start on gaining the national media’s attention that he’ll be sure to draw fans ranging from obsessively devoted to insouciantly (ooo…all that SAT vocab studying from five years ago paid off!) indifferent to the ballpark, for curiosity’s sake if nothing else. Heck, I’d go.
I realize I may be 100% crazy with this theory, but here goes nothing. The signing of Ivan Rodriguez is a strong data point indicating the Nationals already have made up their mind about the number one pick. Clearly the timeline doesn’t quite work out just right (nearly impossible Rodriguez is still be on the team by the time Harper joins), but it is possible somebody in the Washington front office thinks it would be swell if Harper could spend time with Rodriguez in his first spring training as a professional in 2011. Maybe I’m just trying too hard to wrap my head around the incomprehensible…
Special power, special arm, above-average contact skills, above-average potential as a receiver, and average running speed. That’s Bryce Harper.
1.2 Pittsburgh Pirates: RHSP Jameson Taillon – The Woodlands HS (TX)
There are plenty of different ways to approach a given pick in a mock draft. You can look at a team’s recent drafting history in an attempt to discern notable patterns and trends. You can look at organizational strengths and weaknesses to help partially rule out or narrow down certain positions of interest, e.g. knowing with a high degree of certainty that Houston wasn’t taking a catcher, especially a college catcher, in the first couple of rounds last year. You can also just look at the draft board, check what individual talent is there, and just line up the best player available with whatever team happens to be picking. I try to combine all three components in every mock I do, but I’m slowly coming to realize the last part, the one about staying true to the draft board and slotting players in that way, is probably the surest way to get a mock draft looking like the eventual real deal in June.
That’s why Taillon to Pittsburgh makes sense to me. He’s currently the second highest ranked draft-eligible player on the board. If Pittsburgh sees that the same way, they’ll take Taillon without hesitation, Tony Sanchez signability pick be damned.
I love the willingness of the Pirates to take high upside fliers late in the draft. I go back and forth too much on these things to really have a meaningful draft philosophy of my own, but, if I had to align myself with a pro club’s approach to drafting, I think there would be a lot of similarities between what I would do and what the Huntington Pirates have done over the past two years. Then again, I’ve never been a Tony Sanchez guy at all, dating back to watching him play extensively over the past three years in person along the parking garage ramp at Boston College. Guess that just goes to show how hard it is to really understand what certain clubs will wind up doing on draft day.
1.3 Baltimore Orioles: RHSP AJ Cole – Oviedo HS (FL)
I promise I won’t quote myself all that much going forward, but my positive feelings towards the direction of the Orioles have only gone stronger in the past year. Here’s what I said in last year’s first mock:
Matt Weiters, Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and the fifth pick in the draft. That’s a foundation for something; I don’t know what exactly, but something.
We now know who that fifth pick turned out to be (Matt Hobgood) and we can count newly added and/or 2009 breakthrough prospects like Josh Bell, Zach Britton, Brandon Erbe (he’s more of a reemergence than a breakthrough guy, actually), and a decent haul from outside the first round including Mychal Givens, Justin Dalles, Ryan Berry, Jake Cowan, and Mike Ohlman all as part of the core of the next great Orioles team. On top of all that, of course, is the pick that will produce the highest drafted O’s prospect since Ben McDonald (my goal is to mention him as often as possible, apparently) in 1989. Since 2001, Baltimore has averaged roughly the seventh overall pick in the draft, but they’ve never been higher than 4th. Those two number four overall picks were LHSPs Brian Matusz and Adam Loewen. Ole Miss lefthander Drew Pomeranz and Florida Gulf Coast lefty Chris Sale are potential candidates to uphold my worthless trend of Baltimore taking lefthanded pitchers when they get top four draft picks, but I’m thinking they eschew any kind of recent drafting trends and go for broke by picking the top available talent on the board. AJ Cole, come on down.
1.4 Kansas City Royals: RHSP Kaleb Cowart – Cook County HS (GA)
The Royals always seem like a wild card at the top of the draft, a team willing to go in whatever direction the available talent dictates. 2010 looks to be a draft top heavy in pitching. Cowart has the greatest likelihood of rising up the draft boards of all the “big name” prep arms this side of the Taillon/Cole duo. The vicious movement he gets on his two offspeed offerings (high-80s slider, low-80s split-fingered change) combined with his plus athleticism make him a solid bet to stave off his prep righty competition and claim a spot in the top ten.
1.5 Cleveland Indians: LHSP Drew Pomeranz – Ole Miss
I concede. I have a very hard time seeing Pomeranz as a top half of the first round caliber prospect, let alone a top five pick at this point, but so many publications have him in the top ten that I think I have to relent. I swear I’m not trying to lose whatever renegade street cred I’ve built up (if any), but one of the stated goals for this site was to act as a resource in consensus building when it comes to draft prognostications across the internet. I want to drop Pomeranz, but that wouldn’t be a true reflection of where his present stock stands. If everybody wants to call Pomeranz an elite prospect, fine. I figure the very least I can do is keep his name up high until I can do some more homework on him and definitely say, one way or another, that he will or won’t be picked within the first X number of picks.
In other Indians related news, I ripped the franchise’s 2001-2005 drafts to shreds in this space last year, ending with this conclusion that still makes me laugh to this day (yes, I’m that egotistical):
Soooo…what am I doing wasting my time with this site anyway? Perhaps a better question is what are you doing wasting your time reading this site? Turns out the best way to attempt to rebuild a franchise isn’t though the draft; no, who has the time to go through all that trouble scouting and signing a bunch of kids? All you really have to do is haven an extra Bart Colon hanging around to trade and, poof, you’ve got a farm system to be proud of.
I didn’t hate the top of Cleveland’s draft last year, but, man, did they go heavy with college guys or what? Anyway, I just found it a little funny that the Indians have dealt three Bart Colon’s (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez) in the past two seasons at least in part to replenish a farm system that has been handicapped by poor drafting year after year. Santana, Hagadone, Brantley, Carrasco, Knapp, Marson, Todd, Barnes, Donald, LaPorta, Masterson…all players acquired in one trade or another in recent seasons. They’ve done a commendable job with their international scouting, but, jeez louise, there isn’t a whole lot of drafted talent to be found in any of their published top prospect lists.
1.6 Arizona Diamondbacks: RHSP Kyle Blair – San Diego
My favorite draft-eligible college prospect had to find a way to get himself into the top ten, right? An above-average fastball that sits in the low-90s, a plus mid-70s curve, and a good low-80s change make for a potent mix in my book. Blair was a big recruit coming out of high school who hasn’t disappointed since joining the Toreros. Love the USD staff, by the way. Blair, Sammy Solis (another potential first rounder), and AJ Griffin (my favorite senior sign, by far) make up one heck of a three-headed monster. Or three-armed monster. Six-armed monster? As for Blair, yes, this is a generous placement on the mock, but it’s defensible not only because of that present three pitch mix but also the chance his peak fastball velocity perks up in the spring. If he is topping out at 94-95 once the season starts, watch out.
1.7 New York Mets: RHP Jesse Hahn – Virginia Tech
Hahn has a huge heater that has helped him hike up his heretofore humble hold amidst fellow hurlers in the draft hierarchy. The best fastball in the 2010 class has been clocked a steady 96-98 with true plus life. Unfortunately for Hahn, there isn’t a whole lot else in his bag of tricks at this point in his development. To his credit, he does throw a curve and a change that both have average potential down the line. Additionally, he has thrown both a slider and a cutter at intermittent points in the past. Neither pitch caught on, but it’s nice to know that Hahn has experience messing around with them at the very least. If one of those four pitches develops into at least a big league average pitch this spring, Hahn will assure himself a spot in the first round as a reliever. If he shows enough with two of those pitches (at least proving they have the potential to be league average weapons, even if they aren’t quite there by June), he’ll go even higher still. Aroldis Chapman has a slider that is already better than any of Hahn’s secondary stuff and a change has shown a ton of potential, but if you squint really hard you can begin to see some similarities between the two.
1.8 Houston Astros: RHSP Deck McGuire – Georgia Tech
Possessing truly one of the great baseball names of the 2010 MLB Draft, Deck McGuire’s scouting profile reads a lot like the man picked two spots ahead of him. His fastball sits 88-91 MPH (peaks at 93) with enough great sink that makes it an above-average pitch despite the less than thrilling velocity. His out pitch is a hard high-70s CB that is in the running for best curve in the college class. His impressive change makes for a fantastic third option, especially when stacked against the typical so-so third pitches you see from amateur prospects at his level. McGuire’s biggest flaws are his off-and-on control and his iffy mechanics, two issues that are very commonly seen in tandem. If a team sees a way to clean up his arm action and help him gain a more consistent release point, he’ll hear his name called in the top fifteen picks on draft day.
1.9 San Diego Padres: RHSP Brandon Workman – Texas
2010 = Year of the College Curveball. First Blair, then McGuire, now Workman. Workman’s version of the pitch is another plus offering, a 77-78 MPH nasty 12-6 hook. His fastball isn’t too shabby either, comfortably sitting in the low-90s with a pretty consistent peak of 95 MPH and has reached 98 in the past. The only issue I have with Workman are the similarities between how he looked as a high school senior and how he looks today. Coming out of high school he had a high velocity fastball and a curve with plus potential. That’s good. What he didn’t have was a quality third pitch and non-cringe worthy throwing mechanics. There has been some noise about a changeup being worked on, but I haven’t personally seen enough proof of the pitch to give it the Baseball Draft Report stamp of approval. There has also been some reports that Workman has cleaned up his mechanics a little bit since enrolling at Texas. If he has, I’m not seeing it. That’s not to say he hasn’t, I’m literally just saying that I can’t really tell the difference between the video I saw of him as a prep player and the real life version of Workman I saw pitch live last year. I’m neither trained to notice such things nor do I worry too much about mechanics in general (remember my mechanics creed – so long as it is repeatable, I’m happy), but I figured it was worth mentioning. Flaws from high school shouldn’t still exist after two full years in college, right? Could be a red flag, could be nothing.
Also, I learned today that one of the Padres team colors is officially called “sand.” Can’t decide if that’s awesome or sad. Because it’s the Padres and I already sort of pity them a little bit, I think I’m going with awesome.
1.10 Oakland Athletics: 3B Nick Castellanos – Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
Arguably the best high school position player in this year’s class winds up joining up with one of baseball’s premier farm systems. Castellanos is the first high school bat off the board for a lot of reasons. He reminds me a lot of Josh Vitters, but with easier to project power potential and a better, more professionally approach at the plate. So, he is like Vitters, a former third overall pick in the draft, but better in the two biggest areas of concern on his game. He’s Super Vitters.
Total unsubstantiated rumor department brings us this little tidbit – Oakland has a thing for Brandon Workman. Just throwing that out there.
1.11 Toronto Blue Jays: SS Christian Colon – Cal State Fullerton
I’m not quite stubborn/bold enough to put Colon where I really think he’ll wind up in June, so I’ll defer to the experts and keep Colon in the first half of the first round for now. I guess that sort of makes Colon the Drew Pomeranz of position player prospects, huh? Everything I said a few months ago holds up today:
I guess my lack of love for his game comes from me severely underrating the value of a league average big league shortstop (a rookie mistake on my part, I admit) and also being less than impressed when seemingly every scouting report about Colon begins and ends with talk about his personality, leadership, and the way he makes the most of his average at best tools. No doubt Colon’s makeup is totally off the charts and his defensive chops make him a slam dunk to stick at short professionally, but I tend to focus more on the “average at best tools” part of that discussion than the “personality” and “leadership.” I’m both ready and willing to convinced I’m totally wrong on Colon, but that’s where things stand now. For what it’s worth, I’ve only seen Colon play once since watching him in person in high school, so maybe I’m judging him unfairly based on my limited and outdated memory of his skills. Also, for what it’s worth, I have a scouting buddy who has seen Colon play a ton from his junior year of high school until this past summer and he absolutely loves everything about Colon’s game.
I’m totally nuts for maybe possibly almost thinking Gary Brown, Colon’s teammate at Fullerton, is the better pro prospect, right? Brown’s gigantic edge in speed and added pop might just make up for Colon’s clear advantage in both overall defense upside and contact skills, but your mileage might vary.
1.12 Cincinnati Reds: OF Austin Wilson – Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
Honest to goodness, I had a dream last night that I finally published this mock. It was marvelous. After staring at this Word document for over ten days, it was a joy to finally rid my brain of the incessant, nagging thoughts of “who goes where?” and “is this guy ?” and “what’s the damn point of doing a mock over six months and a full amateur season before the actual event?” I hit the tiny PUBLISH button and breathed the sweetest sigh of relief known to man. Then, without warning, my dream turned into terrifying nightmare. The delight my dream-time self was feeling over getting this stinking mock done quickly turned to dread as I realized I forgot to include Austin Wilson. I checked, double-checked, triple-checked…and he was nowhere to be found. Apparently there was neither an edit nor a delete feature in my nightmare, so the omission of Wilson was forced to stand as an ugly black mark against my draft forecasting soul for all of eternity. Maybe I take all this draft stuff too seriously…
Wilson could be this year’s Donovan Tate. Wilson could be this year’s Brian Goodwin. I obviously lean much closer to the Tate side of things, but I’m a sucker for 6-4, 200 pound outfielders rocking the plus power/plus arm combo. The comps for Wilson range from silly (Dave Winfield) to topical (Andre Dawson) to “man, I feel old comparing high school kids to players I loved when I was 10” (Juan Gonzalez, Moises Alou) to intriguingly ultra-modern and therefore ultra-hip (Mike Taylor, Mike Stanton) all the way to completely made up by me just now (Shawn Green, Ellis Burks). It goes without saying that Wilson hitting his ceiling would be blessed to have a career like any of the players listed above (minus the minor leaguers, I suppose), but they do provide some context into what has been said about Wilson’s upside as a prospect so far. The two current minor league comps stick out to me as particularly interesting; Mike Stanton is a comp that mixes Wilson’s most immediate “realistic” upside as top minor league prospect with an equally plausible estimation of his tools (power, arm, good enough speed, should be good defenders in the corner), and Mike Taylor’s name serves as a reminder that Stanford commits like Wilson are always a pain in the neck to get signed.
I was looking over the Cincinnati organizational depth chart to see what kind of future lineup the Reds could throw out if they decided to add Wilson into the mix. They’ve gotten so much good press this offseason as a team on the rise that I was curious to see what kind of future starting 8 they might be able to field. Instead of fleshing out the idea, I became distracted by one name. Todd Frazier. Now I’ve seen a lot of Mr. Frazier over the years, from his high school days right on through his junior year at Rutgers. Through those years, one thing in particular stood out to me about Frazier’s game. Get ready for some seriously hard hitting prospect analysis here. Ready? Sure? Todd Frazier could be Peyton Manning’s body double, if the need for such a thing ever arises. Saw him in high school, remember thinking he looked like he could be the long lost missing Manning brother. By his last year at Rutgers, he was no longer just a random no-name honorary Manning. No, he was Peyton Manning. He is Peyton Manning.
The Ohio high school pitcher I have going fourteenth overall may also make sense if you’re into regional ties impacting drafting strategy. If I had realized the connection beforehand, maybe I would have made Stetson Allie the pick here for the Reds. Maybe next time.
1.13 Chicago White Sox: RHSP Dylan Covey – Maranatha HS (CA)
Remember how my angle for the Cincinnati pick was going to be about the way they are suddenly a team getting a ton of positive buzz? I really can’t tell you how many different places have come out and said the Reds are the Central’s second best team heading into 2010, as well as the team best positioned to take over St Louis when the Cardinals realize spending 98% of your payroll (figure may not be exact) on two players. I’m not necessarily disputing either idea, just pointing out that it has been interesting to see so many sources from all across the baseball landscape (from analytical types to scouty types) all hyping up the Reds lately. Well…
Covey is a little bit like the Reds. He’s the prospect that has gotten a huge groundswell of support over the past few weeks from just about everybody with a keyboard and an opinion on amateur baseball. Just wait, they said. Watch him pitch, they said. His stock will soar, they said. Good call, internet. Covey could have very easily been swapped with Cowart at the number four spot in this draft. If we accept that all pitching prospects come with major questions, maybe we should work towards finding the prospect with the easiest questions to answer. This isn’t a great strategy in general as I tend to be more of a “focus on what a player can do rather than what he can’t do” kind of fellow, but it does serve a useful purpose when comparing so many similarly talented players like the ones featured in this year’s prep righthanded pitching crop. Covey’s questions include inconsistent in-game mechanics, inconsistent command start to start, and a body type that doesn’t inspire much projection going forward. Mechanics can always be tweaked, his command has looked sharper every time I’ve seen him, and the body isn’t anywhere close to Sir Sidney Ponson levels of bad.
1.14 Milwaukee Brewers: RHSP Stetson Allie – St Edward HS (OH)
Back to Gary Brown and Christian Colon for a minute because a couple of comps occurred to me today. How about Brown as Shane Victorino and Christian Colon as a slightly less hacktastic Placido Polanco capable of playing shortstop? Neither comp is perfect, but I think the tools of each player matches up pretty well with their respective big league comparisons.
The ghost of Jack Z would be very proud of this Allie pick for Milwaukee. Big, hard throwing, erratic, and a difficult sign. Sounds about right.
1.15 Texas Rangers: RHSP Cam Bedrosian – East Coweta HS (GA)
I only quote myself because I know 95% of readers only come to check out the mock drafts anyway:
I’ll willingly admit I like Bedrosian more than most talent evaluators do a the moment. One of the reasons I think I like him more than others is simple – short righties don’t scare me. I know I’ve made the Bedrosian/Kyle Drabek comparison before, and I’m happy to mention again in print here. Bedrosian’s 6-0, 195 pound frame doesn’t bother me much at all because it is compact and muscular in all the right places, most notably the legs. His arm action is a thing of beauty with a consistent landing spot and a very smooth, repeatable delivery. Bedrosian’s fastball is a potential plus big league offering, already sitting 90-93 and hitting 95-96, and his curve is on the very short list of the very best high school secondary pitches I’ve had the pleasure of watching. Beyond those two plus/potential plus pitches, Bedrosian can mix in a mid-70s CU and a really exciting high-80s splitter that could grow into a big league strikeout pitch in time. Power stuff (FB, hard CB, SF) combined with at least the occasional appearance of that changeup makes Bedrosian a rare bird among young pitchers. I’m often quick to dismiss bloodlines as a reason for liking one prospect over another, but Bedrosian’s cerebral approach to pitching has pretty clearly been influenced by having a former professional ballplayer as a father.
Drabek had the off the field issues to contend with, but it makes me a little concerned that I have Bedrosian, a wonderful prospect but one with a lesser grade than Drabek at similar points in their development, going higher than Drabek did in his draft year. This one may be a case of letting my own personal take get in the way of making the most accurate mock possible. Oh well, I love this guy. I think he makes some sense for the Rangers here as they continue to build up their young pitching stockpile. In some ways a pick like this is reminiscent of the Michael Main selection in 2007. In other ways, it so totally isn’t. Yeah, think about that one for a while. It’s like a paradox wrapped in poor grammar wrapped by questionable syntax wrapped in a vest.
1.16 Chicago Cubs: RHSP Alex Wimmers – Ohio State
I saw Wimmers a lot last year and every time I saw him I had a similar thought – “hey, this guy is better than I thought coming in.” Good fastball, good sinking changeup, and a plus curve make him a good bet as a first rounder. Speaking of good bets, I made my first group of tiers today while at a meeting at work. This was newsworthy for a couple different reasons. First, while paying more attention on sketching out my rankings than I did on what the presenter was telling me about various co-teaching models, I technically got paid to write about baseball. I’m a professional baseball writer! Second, and actually somewhat seriously, there are a lot of talented players at the top of this year’s draft class. The “lock” group for first rounders was bigger than I remember it being last year, as was the “very likely” group. Without spoiling any surprises, Wimmers was just barely on the outside looking in on that “very likely” to go in the first round group. I’d say that’s a pretty strong indication that the first round isn’t as barren as some have claimed.
1.17 Tampa Bay Rays: LHSP Chris Sale – Florida Gulf Coast
I’d love to check in on Sale’s actual groundball numbers. Every scouting report him mentions his ability to induce weak contact for easy ground outs. That’s an excellent trait for a pitcher to have. Do the scouting reports jive with’s really happening on the field? I mentioned how everybody considers Ranaudo a groundball pitcher because he is big guy who throws on what appears to be a downward plane, but the numbers don’t support it. Sale’s reports mention the groundballs specifically, so I’m way more inclined to believe that he has the skill. Time to start digging through the game logs!
This may be as low as we see Sale on a mock on this site all year. His stuff is going to be too good to keep him from suffering from any post-helium backlash.
1.18 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: RHSP Karsten Whitson – Chipley HS (FL)
It took seventeen full picks to get here, but we made it. The Angels taking Karsten Whitson is the first pick that I can look at and honestly say I have nothing of value to add with my commentary. Whitson has a definite first round fastball, but closer to tenth round caliber secondary stuff and throwing mechanics. The Angels can afford to gamble on such a player with the first of their nine (again, the numbers may not be accurate) first round picks.
1.19 Detroit Tigers (just kidding, it’s now the Houston Astros): 3B Zack Cox – Arkansas
It feels almost dirty not giving Detroit a hard throwing high school righthander, especially in a year with plenty of worthy candidates at this spot. Allie and Whitson both could be possibilities, as could college righthanders Hahn, Workman, and Matt Harvey. Luckily, I can now guarantee Detroit won’t be picking a hard throwing righty in this spot. No way, no how. Now I’m looking for players that would make sense for Houston that won’t screw up any picks later in the first round. Zack Cox makes some sense, but the added leverage the draft-eligible sophomore has makes me a little leery of keeping in this spot. LeVon Washington maybe? Could Ed Wade overrule Bobby Heck’s team of scouts and demand a guy like Kevin Jacob here? They’ve had some success with two-way players before, so maybe Bryce Brentz could fit?
1.20 Boston Red Sox: SS Yordy Cabrera – Lakeland HS (FL)
Is it too late to change this pick to Rob Brantly? I really wanted to include him in the mock so I could make my Rob Brantly = Derek Norris comp that I’ve been so eagerly waiting to unveil. Oh well. I’ve also heard a completely unsubstantiated rumor that links Boston to Virginia outfielder Jarrett Parker, a player with scouting reports that sort of remind me of a poor man’s Ryan Westmoreland. Justin O’Conner could also be a name that makes sense in this spot. I wouldn’t have matched the Red Sox up with Rey Fuentes last year, so I’m not even sure I’m qualified to comment on this pick any furt…
Anyway, let’s talk Yordy. I have to admit that while he isn’t one of my favorite prep bats in this class, I’d be happy to see my favorite team draft Yordy if given the chance. Why? Come on! Yordy! Who among us could possibly resist rooting for a Yordy? It’s impossible question to answer because nobody has ever even tried. I’m powerless to not root for a Yordy. I’d never buy a jersey of a player from a team I didn’t root for (that’s a lie…I’d never buy a jersey period, regardless of team), but I’d definitely consider getting a snazzy Yordy! t-shirt if/when he makes it to the show AND successfully petitions MLB to allow him to just put Yordy on the back of his jersey.
1.21 Minnesota Twins: Anthony Wolters – Rancho Buena Vista HS (CA)
Finally, one that feels right. A first round grade player that fits a position of need for an organization with a track record of drafting guys with similar skill sets early in the draft. A far more advanced Dustin Pedroia is the most commonly used comp. It works in a lot of ways, I think. Wolters has an advanced approach at the plate, phenomenal hands, an accurate arm, and well above-average range. Many are already moving him off of short as a professional, but I haven’t seen anything in his game to think he can’t at least start his career off as at least a league average shortstop defensively. Again, Justin O’Conner also fits the bill here.
1.22 Texas Rangers: Stefan Sabol – Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
Still not sure what position Sabol will eventually call home, but he’ll be a good one wherever he winds up. Actually, that first part is a lie. I do that a lot, apparently. Anyway, it’s not a total lie, but more of a nod to the scouting world consensus that seems to go back and forth on Sabol’s most likely eventual position. So allow me to amend that sloppy opening sentence by changing it up to say while many aren’t sure what position Sabol will play as a professional, I, however would bet a good chunk of change he sticks behind the plate for a good long while. His speed and athleticism (Sabol possesses arguably the best body of any amateur, college guys included) have already earned him Jason Kendall comps, but a comp like that ignores his significantly higher ultimate upside in the power department. The very same speed and athleticism are the reasons why I think so many want to prematurely move him out from behind the dish. True, he is athletic enough to play a variety of different positions, but, like Bryce Harper, his value is highest staying right where he is until he proves he can’t handle catching. He has a true plus arm that will play anywhere, above-average speed that could serve him well in the outfield (you know, just in case), and average to above-average big league power potential.
1.23 Florida Marlins: RHSP Deandre Smelter – Tattnall County HS (GA)
It would be easy to lose track of a player like Smelter in the midst of so many other similarly talented prep righties, but that would be a mistake. Smelter can do just about everything you want to see out of a young pitching prospect. His fastball sits 89-93 MPH with a peak velocity of 97. I’ve seen that peak a lot lower in some places, but I trust the number. Of course, and this is huge, always remember that high school peak velocities almost always come from one inning relief showcase outings. It goes without saying that the 97 wouldn’t hold up as a starter, but nobody does that anyway. Tangent aside, let’s just settle on the fact that Smelter has a strong enough present fastball that he’s actually been criticized for being too reliant on it at times. When he isn’t just blowing it by hitters, he throws an excellent splitter (82-84 MPH) that could be a big league out pitch in time. To go a step further, I’d go out on the limb and say that Smelter’s splitter has the potential to be one of the signature pitches of this year’s draft class; it reminds me a little bit of the split Kevin Brown used to throw to lefties. His repertoire also features a low-80s changeup and a high-70s slider. The slider is currently the better pitch, but it needs serious tightening up going forward.
He is a legitimate three sport high school star (baseball, football, and basketball), a fact that is readily apparent the first time you see him pitch. It’s clear just from watching him that his overall athleticism is off the charts, but it’s just as clear that his delivery and arm action are all kinds of raw. His herky jerky delivery will almost certainly need some polish as a professional. And, yes, herky jerky is the professional term, thankyouverymuch. Anyway, since I’m not an expert on pitching mechanics in the least, here’s my basic theory on what I personally look for out of a pitcher’s throwing motion, reprinted from the first mock I did last year:
A pet scouting theory on mechanics of mine can be summed up like this: The most direct path to smooth, consistent, and repeatable delivery is through outstanding athleticism. Anecdotally, it seems that plus athletes tend to “figure things out” mechanically more often than other pitchers. It could be an offshoot of the great size debate – again, anecdotally it seems pitchers in the 6-0 to 6-3 range tend to be more athletic than the larger, “classic” pitcher’s frame guys (pitchers 6-4 and up). The scouting bias against short pitchers, righthanders especially, has turned them into a valued underappreciated commodity. It’s more than just that, however; these shorter pitchers, once more anecdotally, seem to have better control of their more athletic bodies, and thus smoother, easier to repeat deliveries. Smooth, easy to repeat deliveries lead not only to cleaner injury records but also increased velocity.
Just a pet theory, nothing more. Honestly, my knowledge of pitching mechanics isn’t really at the level where I should be coming up with any half-baked theories. All I look for (or, more honestly, all I really know how to look for) in a young pitcher is repeatability. Even if the motion looks weird and, in some extreme cases, painful, the question I always come back to is can he repeat it every time? If he can, sign him up. If not, back to the drawing board.
So there you have it. Herky jerky delivery or not, Smelter’s outstanding athleticism gives him a better than average chance at figuring things out as a professional. So says me, anyway.
1.24 San Francisco Giants: OF Brian Ragira – Martin HS (TX)
They have to continue their attempts to balance out the arms with some bats in the system, right? Ragira offers up a similar skill set to Anthony Wolters: above-average speed, professional approach at the plate, legit up the middle defense, and a better than average arm. Future Kevin Goldstein Top 11 Fun Fact about Brian Ragira (pick one, or combine two or more for added fun!): his full name is Brian Aosa Mogaka Ragira, he is of Kenyan descent, and his father lived in the next tribe over from where Barak Obama’s father grew up. I’d bet money on it. As awesome a name as Brian Aosa Mogaka Ragira is, can we all agree that it is simply no match for the greatest name in the history of names, Mr. Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean-Jacques Wamutombo?
1.25 St Louis Cardinals: LHSP Sammy Solis – San Diego
Brian Matusz-lite. The four-pitch mix (low-90s fastball, plus change, above-average slider and curve) is extremely enticing, as is his frame and the low mileage on his arm. The bulging disc in his lower back that knocked him out for most of the 2009 season is just about the only reason why I can see him flying under the radar at this point because he has everything you’d want in a pitching prospect otherwise.
1.26 Colorado Rockies: OF Josh Sale – Bishop Blanchett HS (WA)
Too low? Probably, but I’m still having a hard time getting an actual read on where Sale’s prospect stock currently stands. What I do know is that the man is a hitter. He hits, hits, hits, and hits. He isn’t a slug in the field, but many scouts still believe that he probably profiles best as a big league leftfielder. Boy, first Ragira and now Sale; I’m starting to realize that Goldstein is going to have it really easy with this year’s high school class. If he needs a head start on his fun facts for Sale’s future top 11 piece, he can take the following tidbits free of charge: Sale’s full name is Joshua Ezkiel Gasu Sale and his dad is a native Samoan famous for being a champion power lifter.
1.27 Philadelphia Phillies: 3B Victor Sanchez – San Diego
As a Phillies fan, I can’t help but wonder if sometimes I lean closer towards wishful thinking than objective analysis when it comes time to making a pick for the hometown team. I probably have no business giving the Phillies a college bat in the first round, but, really, I probably have no business making any of these guesses and you’re still reading all the way down here at pick 27, right?
In order for Sanchez to go in the first he is going to have to put together a big junior year. Now that’s true of just about any guy on the mock, doubly so for any player projected to go here at the back end of the first, but Sanchez is facing a more critical 2010 season than most after missing the majority of the 2009 season with a shoulder injury. He’ll need to build on his strong 2009 start if he wants to showcase his considerable talents. At his best Sanchez displays plus raw power, a good offensive approach, and enough defensive abilities to stick at third long-term.
1.28 Los Angeles Dodgers: RHSP Matt Harvey – North Carolina
After Harvey’s hot start last season, I wrote the following on March 1, 2009:
[W]hat is the likelihood, if it exists at all, that Matt Harvey reaches the same level of hype other elite college pitchers (Strasburg, Price, and Prior, to name a few) had heading into his draft year?
Uhh, I’m going to have to go out on a limb here and say that the likelihood isn’t all that good. Controversial answer, I know. It’s probably weird having Matt Harvey in the first round at this point, but, if anything, I actually feel weird about having him this low. A really, really good rule to follow when tracking draft prospects is to remember that once a player shows you a skill, it is his to own. There are obvious exceptions to this, major injuries being the most obvious, but good players just don’t plain forget how to do good things on the field. Elite prospects who don’t sign out of high school tend not to drop too far after three years of college, even if those three years are so-so.
The most recent reports on Harvey have been largely positive: 90-93 sitting velocity with fastball, 94-95 peak velocity, plus 77-80 CB, and a solid sinking low-80s change. The biggest problem with Harvey’s game seems to be his bizarre velocity inconsistency with his fastball. One day you’ll see him pitching in the mid-90s, the next he’ll be down to maxing out at 86 (86!), and then he’ll be back up to sitting 88-90, but still not hitting 96 like before…until the next time out when he suddenly has regained those lost 10 MPH on the fastball. What the heck is that? It’s not even a start-to-start phenomenom, either; Harvey has experienced sudden velocities dips and gains in-game as well. I have no idea what to make of Harvey. If the right scouting director sees him on the right day, he’ll go high. If not, he’ll be lumped in with the rest of the college guys who project as relievers hoping to get a spot in the first five rounds.
I like the idea of the Dodgers taking Harvey one pick before the Angels, the team that couldn’t get him signed back in 2007. I wonder what Harvey’s career would have looked like so far if he would have signed out of high school. He’s a prime candidate for an Alternate Reality Crystal Ball…
1.29 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: LHSP James Paxton – Kentucky
Pretty uneventful past couple of months for Paxton, huh? As we wait and see whether Paxton’s legal team decides to appeal to NCAA’s decision to keep him off the Kentucky roster in 2010, we can take some time to speculate on his professional future. I know I already made the comparison earlier in the mock with Jesse Hahn, but Paxton and Aroldis Chapman probably match up better from an overall talent perspective. Like Chapman, Paxton’s realistic floor is that of a late inning, shutdown reliever. That’s clearly not a floor to be taken lightly. Paxton’s current two-pitch combo (fastball at 92-98 MPH, low-80s plus slider) make him a good enough to pitch in the big leagues right now. The issues with Paxton come down to fastball command and the lack of a consistent third pitch (the change is a work in progress). Getting a chance to address those issues in the SEC this upcoming season could potentially do Paxton’s draft stock a world of good, especially considering the way he directly addressed one of the biggest concerns to his game (control) in 2009 by nearly cutting his BB/9 in half.
If Paxton’s floor is a big league reliever, his upside is a front of the rotation anchor, especially if he shows progress with the changeup this season. I’m always in favor of trying pitchers as starters first and position players at more demanding defensive positions before moving them elsewhere. Paxton’s ability to hold his velocity late (I’ve seen him hitting the high-90s as late as the sixth inning, for what it’s worth) make him worth trying as a starter until he proves that his stuff plays better in the bullpen…or not.
1.30 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 3B/2B Kolbrin Vitek – Ball State
Vitek’s tools all grade out similarly to fellow small school sensation Bryce Brentz. They both have plus bat speed, good plate discipline, and plus power potential. They are also both two-way players who have had success on the mound collegiately, though only Vitek could actually pull of the trick of being a legit draft prospect as either a hitter or pitcher. In addition to a glove/arm combination that will definitely play at third professionally, Vitek does all the little things well that make scouts (and wannabe’s like me) very happy. He is a sensational base runner, works deep counts, and has one of the coolest names this side of Yordy Cabrera. Vitek’s utter dominance of the Great Lakes League this past summer sealed the deal for me. He may not be a first rounder in June, but he is as good a bet as any college hitter in the 2010 to be an impact player in the big leagues.
I only have the Angels taking one high school player out of their three first round picks. That seems like a mistake now, but I tried to err on the side of sure-fire signability. That is something that will almost certainly be adjusted in future mocks. In a strange twist, this is the second year in a row the Angels have had back-to-back picks in the first round. Stranger still, I “drafted” for the Angels in last year’s MVN MLB Outsider: 2009 Mock Draft. My picks last year were Tyler Skaggs and Everett Williams – two high school players! You would think I wouldn’t stray too much from the formula that worked last year, but I’m just not that smart. Next mock for the Angels will be better, I promise.
Speaking of my picks last year for the now-defunct MVN site, check it out:
A closing thought as I run up against the maximum word threshold – watch out for the Angels popping University of Washington OF/QB Jake Locker with an early mid-round pick (early as round 4, late as round 7). Adenhart, Trumbo, and Walden were all risky signability picks, but Eddie Bane and his staff did their homework to know exactly how much each player needed to sign on the dotted line. Locker’s commitment to football and time away from baseball make him as risky a signability pick as any player in the draft, but his raw tools are good enough that some team will call an all-out blitz in an attempt to get him signed. That team will be the Angels, you heard it here first.
The Angels took him in the tenth round. That led to this, probably the coolest bit of mainstream exposure the site has enjoyed since starting up early last year. I’ve long daydreamed of being referred to as “this guy here” and now I can say I’ve truly accomplished something in my life.
1.31 Tampa Bay Rays: OF Bryce Brentz – Middle Tennessee State
Super Nintendo numbers (.465/.535/.930) and comparisons to Nick Markakis’s two-way skill set have gotten Brentz a disproportionate amount of pub when compared to other draft prospects, but, hey, any time a casual baseball fan knows the name of a draft prospect months in advance we have to consider that a strong indicator of the rapid growth of MLB draft coverage. Brentz has special bat speed and should be an above-average defender in right field professionally. I’d love to take closer look at the game-by-game breakdown of Brentz’s ’09 numbers to see the types of pitchers he is doing the most of his damage off of, though the sample sizes involved may not yield any kind of meaningful conclusions. With six months between now and then draft, I’m sure I’ll be able to delve a little deeper into Brentz’s numbers one way or another.
1.32 New York Yankees: SS Garin Cecchini – Barbe HS (LA)
Always important to end on a high note, and I like this match between team and player. Cecchini is an outstanding athlete with a good arm, above-average speed, and very impressive lefthanded power. If you believe he’ll stick at short, then the Yankees can finally claim to have a worthy successor to Derek Jeter in the pipeline. Robbie Aviles, a New York native, is another name that fits here quite well.
Because it makes all the sense in the world for a website covering baseball to have a little NBA Draft coverage, right?
Ask anybody who has the distinct pleasure of knowing me personally – my obsession with following the draft doesn’t end with baseball. So why the heck not use this outlet to let some NBA Draft thoughts spill out of my brain, right? I’m asking seriously, why the heck not? Because this is a baseball website? Well…that would be a good answer. I’m not really sure if I have a good comeback for that one. Maybe I’ll just ignore it and see if it goes away…
Anyway. Behold my totally amateur hack job of what Thursday night’s first round could maybe, possibly, kind of, sort of look like. The goal this year is to get at least 5 picks right, and, yes, I’m including getting the Griffin to Los Angeles pick in that five. Setting the bar high this year!
1. Los Angeles Clippers – F Blake Griffin
2. Memphis Grizzlies – C Hasheem Thabeet
3. Oklahoma City Sonics – G James Harden
4. Sacramento Kings – G Ricky Rubio
5. Minnesota Timberwolves – G Stephen Curry
6. Minnesota Timberwolves – G Tyreke Evans
7. Golden State Warriors – F Earl Clark
8. New York Knicks – F Jordan Hill
9. Toronto Raptors – F James Johnson
10. Milwaukee Bucks – G Jonny Flynn
11. New Jersey Nets – G Jrue Holiday
12. Charlotte Bobcats – G Gerald Henderson
13. Indiana Pacers – G Eric Maynor
14. Phoenix Suns – G Ty Lawson
15. Detroit Pistons – F Terrence Williams
16. Chicago Bulls – F Tyler Hansbrough
17. Philadelphia 76ers – G Brandon Jennings
18. Minnesota Timberwolves – G Jeff Teague
19. Atlanta Hawks – G Darren Collison
20. Utah Jazz – F Omri Casspi
21. New Orleans Hornets – G Demar DeRozan
22. Portland Trailblazers – F DeJuan Blair
23. Sacramento Kings – F Austin Daye
24. Dallas Mavericks – F Sam Young
25. Oklahoma City Sonics – G Rodrique Beaubois
26. Chicago Bulls – G Wayne Ellington
27. Memphis Grizzlies – C BJ Mullens
28. Minnesota Timberwolves – G Nick Calathes
29. New York Knicks – G Chase Budinger
30. Cleveland Cavaliers – F Danny Green
My own personal big board (only through pick 17…yes, I’m a Sixers fan) looks a little something like this:
Tier 1 —> Rubio/Griffin
Tier 2 —> Evans/Jennings/Curry
Tier 3 —> Holiday/Harden/Thabeet
Tier 4 —> Clark/DeRozan/Henderson/Williams/Blair
Tier 5 —> Lawson/Teague/Hill/Maynor
I have the T’Wolves picking four guards capable of playing the point. How in the world did that happen? I don’t really know. However, strange as it may appear, it’s not totally outside the realm of possibility. As of this writing, Minnesota only has 2 guards on the entire roster.
Weird fit that has overtaken my imagination – Flynn to Milwaukee. Jonny Flynn in a Bucks jersey, it’s a thought that just won’t leave my mind. But, uh, not in a weird way or anything. Not that there would be anything wrong with that, of course. I think I touched on this idea before — ridiculous unfounded premonitions of amateur players appearing in certain professional uniforms that invariably never actually come true — but it’s one that I’ll always cling to no matter how many wrong guesses (DJ LeMahieu, anyone?) I make.
I was sitting on this mock for a few days, so it was simultaneously disappointing and validating to see some of my late first round picks (Beaubois to OKC, Ellington to the Bulls, Calathes to Minnesota) show up on a couple different mock drafts around the internet this afternoon. I really enjoy picking for teams near the bottom of the first, especially bad teams with multiple picks, because it’s easier to envision certain players fitting in more clearly defined roles around that part of the draft. Take the picks I mentioned in parentheses earlier: OKC and Minnesota both could use a guard, but may not want to guarantee a 2009-10 contract for another young player, and Chicago, a team that has publicly stated a preference for taking players from winning college programs, is in need of a shooter. Perfect fits, all.
And now for something totally different…from deep down in my own personal archives (aka a recovered document from my Gmail account), my final mock draft of the 2008 MLB Draft. Yes, in the span of one year I’ve gone from emailing friends and family about the draft to writing about it on a near-daily basis on this little website. Is that progress? Or a sure sign of my mental deterioration? Time will tell!
If you can forgive the Phillies-centric notes, check out how wonderfully wrong I was once things got tricky after pick six in my projected first round of last year’s mock. I figure it’s only fair to give everybody out there a head’s up on my spotty track record in projecting the first round. Enjoy.
I feel pretty good about the first four, but after that all hell breaks loose. White Beckham to Cincy feels right, but beyond that the rest of my top ten could all be wrong-o. Posey is the guy who really makes the top half of the draft funky – he’s the best player to likely fall out of the top four (and in my mind either the second or third best overall anyway), but his bonus demands really make him a wildcard. I have no feel where Hunt will go, but Jim Callis (the best in the world when it comes to forecasting the first round) has him falling to the Phillies at 24. I’ve seen a lot of him on TV this season and he’d be great value at that spot. Picks 11-15 I feel good about, but they’ll of course depend on who rises and falls in the top ten. I’ll say if the board breaks the way I think it will (more or less), those projections will all be on the money. Cubs taking Melville works for me, as does my semi-surprise pick of Perry to Seattle. I have no clue what the Mets are thinking this year – probably a college reliever, catcher, or high upside high schooler combination of some sort, but getting the names to work was a pain. Cashner and Castro fit the reliever/catcher pattern, so that’s what I came up with. Finally, the 24th pick. I have no idea what names the Phillies are targeting for real – normally I can fake the fact that I’m sort of plugged into the home nine’s thinking, but this year is a mystery. When faced with a challenge like that, we work in generalities – big strapping young RHPs and toolsy athletic types, with a supposed 2008 inclination towards getting a more polished college bat who may drop. Hunt fits the first profile (big, raw RHP – even though he is a college kid, he has considerable upside), but other names to consider include high school righthanders Ethan Martin, Tim Melville, Jake Odorizzi, and Alex Meyer. They’ve also been linked to high school bats Hewitt, Zach Collier, and Casey Kelly and the possibility they go college reliever is always out there (I don’t buy the reliever talk at all, but we’ll see). The surprise pick of a college bat would most likely wind up one of the Arizona State guys (Brett Wallace or Ike Davis) or 3B Conor Gillaspie. Ultimately, my giant surprise pick has them going with one of the draft’s most controversial players: Gerrit Cole. Cole is a mess – mechanics are scary, all kinds of reported makeup problems, and he’s a client of Scott Boras. He also has the best fastball in the entire draft and, from a talent alone perspective, would be a giant steal at 24. The first two negatives (mechanics and makeup) won’t worry the Phillies as much as they will other teams (I think), but the last one (Boras) could be a deal breaker. Cole could also be snapped up by the Mets, Cubs, or Tigers right before the Phillies pick. If that’s the case, any of those other guys mentioned (most likely a high school bat, based on the board) could be the man.
1. TB: SS Tim Beckham
2. PIT: 3B Pedro Alvarez
3. KC: 1B Eric Hosmer
4. BAL: LHSP Brian Matusz
5. SF: C Buster Posey
6. FLA: C Kyle Skipworth
7. CIN: SS Gordon Beckham
8. CWS: 1B Justin Smoak
9. WAS: RHSP Aaron Crow
10. HOU: RHSP Shooter Hunt
11. TEX: RHSP Ethan Martin
12. OAK: 1B Yonder Alonso
13. STL: LHSP Christian Friedrich
14. MIN: SS Brett Lawrie
15. LAD: OF Aaron Hicks
16. MIL: SS Casey Kelly
17. TOR: 1B Brett Wallace
18. NYM: RHRP Andrew Cashner
19. CHC: RHSP Tim Melville
20. SEA: RHRP Ryan Perry
21. DET: RHSP Jake Odorizzi
22. NYM: C Jason Castro
23. SD: OF Ike Davis
24. PHI: RHSP Gerrit Cole
25. COL: SS Anthony Hewitt
26. ARI: RHRP Josh Fields
27. MIN: 2B Jemile Weeks
28. NYY: 1B David Cooper
29. CLE: OF Zach Collier
30. BOS: 1B Allan Dykstra
UPDATE! I found my 2007 mock draft as well! This one was actually published for all to see at my old Phillies blog. The 2007 first round, according to me:
1. Tampa – LHSP David Price
2. Kansas City – 3B Josh Vitters
3. Chicago (NL) – RHSP Jarrod Parker
4. Pittsburgh – C Devin Mesoraco
5. Baltimore – LHSP Ross Detwiler
6. Washington – C Matt Wieters
7. Milwaukee – UT Mike Moustakas
8. Colorado – LHRP Dan Moskos
9. Arizona – RHSP Phillippe Aumont
10. San Francisco – LHSP Madison Bumgarner
11. Seattle – LHSP Nick Schmidt
12. Florida – CF Julio Borbon
13. Cleveland – RHSP Blake Beavan
14. Atlanta – OF Jason Heyward
15. Cincinnati – 3B Kevin Ahrens
16. Toronto – 3B Matt Dominguez
17. Texas – RHSP Rick Porcello
18. St. Louis – OF Kyle Russell
19. Philadelphia – RHSP Michael Main
20. Los Angeles – RHSP Matt Harvey
21. Toronto – C J.P. Arencibia
22. San Francisco – 1B Beau Mills
23. San Diego – 3B/OF Todd Frazier
24. Texas – RHSP Chris Withrow
25. Chicago (AL) – SS Justin Jackson
26. Oakland – 1B Matt LaPorta
27. Detroit – RHSP Andrew Brackman
28. Minnesota – OF Michael Burgess
29. San Francisco – SS Pete Kozma
30. New York (AL) – LHSP Joe Savery
Another awful mock if I do say so myself. To somewhat save face, I did say this the morning of the draft:
I have zero doubt that Wieters can stick behind the plate – he excels in all phases of the game defensively, with his rocket arm standing out as a plus plus tool. At the plate, his bat is good enough to play anywhere on the field.
I think Matt Wieters is the best player in the draft this year.
It wasn’t going out on the biggest limb (or would it be tiniest?) ever, but it was at least mildly controversial to suggest he was a better player than David Price back in June of 2007. Heck, it’s still mildly controversial. Alright, that’s it – no more mocks until the first 2010 one is unveiled, I promise.
1.1 Washington: RHSP Stephen Strasburg – San Diego State
Do us a quick favor, will ya? See this franchise here? We need a little help, as I’m sure you know. If it’s not too much trouble, could you, if you’d be so kind, please save baseball in Washington? Simple enough, right? We just need you to sign without too much of a fuss (talk about a PR headache), avoid getting injured in the first few years of your deal (that would be such a buzzkill), and pitch well enough to live up to your reputation as the greatest amateur player of your generation (no pressure!). You’ll be compensated quite handsomely, of course, but terms will be discussed only on the condition of a minimum six-year commitment.
We can’t deny any of the negative press you’ve probably heard about us recently. Yes, it’s true that attendance is way down, our front office/ownership group is in disarray, and we don’t actually have any kind of on field plan in place (I personally love the 14 corner outfielder plan to begin the year), but things aren’t all bad in our nation’s capital. There are building blocks in the organization like Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmermann, and Elijah Dukes, plus you’ll be joined by another top ten draft pick upon signing. We have a new park, a small but fervent fan base, and, really, who among us could possibly resist the temptation of all the chili half-smokes from Ben’s Chili Bowl you can handle? Think about it, Stephen. This is your chance to be the most talked about savior in DC since that other impossibly hyped guy who took charge back in January.
I think he signs for $18.88 million, by the way. Why $18.88 million? So glad you asked. $18.88 million because a) I think he signs for somewhere between $15 and $20 million, but probably closer to $20 million, and b) 8 is my favorite number. How’s that for sound logic? $18.88 million (or whatever the heck he winds up getting) is a relatively small price to pay for relevancy, big crowds every fifth day, and, oh yeah, a damn fine pitcher. He’ll sign, the price won’t be extraorbitant, and the only real concern for Washington will be making sure they spell his name right on the back of his jersey.
1.2 Seattle: CF Dustin Ackley – North Carolina
There is no potential high round pick that I’ve seen in person more often than North Carolina star CF/1B Dustin Ackley. I know what you’re thinking – congratulations, but, really, who cares? I’m not a scout, I’m not an expert, heck, I’m not really anybody worth listening to at all (now that’s a ringing endorsement for this site!). That said, if you are reading this then I’m going to have to assume you love/like/at least tolerate baseball on some level, so you’ll understand when I tell you that with some players…you just know. Watch Ackley swing a bat and you might just get the same feeling I got the first time I saw him swing a bat as a freshman at UNC. Here’s what I wrote about him heading into the season back from Mock Draft 1.0:
Ackley is one of my favorite players in this or any draft because, even though there are a lot of players that you can compare him to, in the end he is still, somehow, someway, a really unique prospect. What position will he play? Where will he fit best in a lineup? Will the power develop? How’s his arm holding up post-Tommy John surgery? How much of his prospect value is tied into the answers of these questions? Maybe his skillset isn’t all that unique (there are plenty of examples of high average, good plate discipline, questionable power bats in this draft), but he certainly offers a weird blend of talents for a guy expected to go so high.
Ackley was an excellent prospect heading into the season, but, as you can see, there were questions about his game that needed to be answered this spring. Let’s see how he did, shall we?
Q: What position will he play?
A: He’s a centerfielder until he proves otherwise. A legitimate case could be made for a pro transition to second base, something the coaching staff at UNC believes he could handle with relative ease. The worst case scenario defensively is that he’ll settle in at either an outfield corner or first base, but the team that drafts him can take comfort in the fact he’ll at least be a well above-average defender at any of the three spots in question.
Q: Where will he fit best in a lineup?
A: To answer this question, let’s examine my string of Ackley comps and see if a pattern develops. Now obviously I’m incredibly high on Ackley’s upside, so these player comps may be a little more optimistic than some seen elsewhere. I tried to use as many contemporary comps as I could, but the one “old-timer” I heard referenced by scouts in the stands down in Chapel Hill was Fred Lynn. I liked that one a lot, even though my knowledge of Fred Lynn is limited to box scores, highlight videos, and stories from those who actually watched him play. As for the more recent comps, feel free to try any of these out for a spin and see what you like: Paul O’Neill, Bobby Bonilla with more speed/patience, Brian Giles at his Age 28 to 31 power peak, Bobby Abreu minus some strikeouts, John Olerud with speed, Bernie Williams, Roberto Alomar, and, my personal favorite, Chase Utley. To finally get back to answering the question, he’ll hit third as a pro.
Q: Will the power develop?
A: He’s not currently. nor will he ever be, a prototypical power hitting slugger, but his compact yet emphatic line drive stroke, wiry strong build, and ability to consistently square up on all pitch types portend well above-average power numbers to come. There is also the matter of that 2009 slugging percentage (.781), a number even more impressive taken in context – Boshamer Stadium, Carolina’s newly renovated home, is a moderate pitchers park. Nobody will make the argument that college statistics have the kind of predictive value that minor league stats have, but at some point the results must be acknowledged as something worth talking about. For Ackley’s ultimate power upside, I think the Chase Utley comp works pretty darn well.
Q: How much of his prospect value is tied into the answers of these questions?
A: Ha, trick question! You can reword the question into this statement: Ackley’s prospect stock was directly tied to his defense, his power, and his health. To steal what is apparently a perpetually funny phrase from sixth graders everywhere, “NO DUH!” Of course his stock was tied to those things…every player in every year is evaluated similarly, right? The question isn’t worthless, however, when we consider potential negative “what-if” scenarios. What if Ackley was tied to first base going forward, but still had the monster 2009 offensively? Would he still be in the running for the second overall pick if he was strictly a first baseman? What if he was totally healthy and playing every day in CF, but put up a .417/.520/.571 line instead of his actual .417/.520/.781? Would the questions about his power scare teams off from taking him in the top five? Top ten? Who knows?
Here is what I do know, or at least thing I know: Dustin Ackley is a future .300/.400/.500 hitter capable of providing above-average defense at an up-the-middle defensive position. It stinks that Seattle missed out on Strasburg, but Ackley is a prospect worthy of the number two overall pick in this or any draft year.
1.3 San Diego: OF Donavan Tate – Cartersville HS (Georgia)
I can’t imagine what it must feel like to be a Padres fan right about now. The days leading up to such a pivotal draft should be tense but in a good, exciting way; it certainly should not be as stressful and panic attack inducing as it would appear to be for fans of the Pads. Maybe I take my own personal baseball fandom too far, but reports that the Padres may take Vanderbilt LHSP Mike Minor third overall would have me breathing into a paper bag if I was a fan of the team. Then again, if I was a Padres fan then chances are I would be a resident of San Diego. If that was the case, I’m not sure I’d be in a position to complain about too much.
With the top pitcher and hitter both off the board, the Padres will be faced with the challenge of sorting through a collection of two classic categories of player: high risk/high reward (Donavan Tate, Tyler Matzek, Kyle Gibson, and Zack Wheeler) and safe/signable (Aaron Crow and Mike Minor). It’ll be the job of Bill Gayton and his scouting staff to find the player that offers them the best blend of each category – reasonable upside, a high floor, and a sure bet to sign for the right price. That’s the hope, anyway. The reality could very well be that the safest route (an overdraft like Minor) is the path ownership forces upon the baseball side and it’s as simple as that. My worry about this pick is that it becomes less about the players involved and more about the unfortunate San Diego draft idealogy. Let’s take a closer look at the three most likely players involved and where they fit in with this idealogy.
If Tate is the pick, as I’m predicting in this version of the mock, then we’ll know who has one of the most influential scouting voices on the San Diego staff. Baseball Prospectus claims Padres VP of Scouting and Player Development Grady Fuson is lobbying hard for OF Donavan Tate, a report that has been verified by just about every other draft publication since. Tate’s upside is through the roof (I think the Carlos Beltran comp is a bit much, but a poor man’s version of Beltran is still pretty exciting) and the ability to spread his signing bonus out as a two-way athlete ought to be enough of an enticement for San Diego to get a deal hammered out.
In the past two weeks or so, the aforementioned Mike Minor has emerged as the hot signability pick that could become a reality if the Padres opt to draft on the cheap. If Minor is the guy, then you’d better believe the pick will get panned by pundits everywhere, but I don’t think it’s as big a talent stretch as some seem to believe. I’ve been hard on a potential Minor selection, but I want it to be clear that it would be more about what it would represent than the actual player being picked. No, Minor is not the third best prospect in this year’s class, but I still think he’s a first round talent that will be better as a professional than he was as an amateur.
If the Padres decide to go with Crow, the chain reaction will be a sight to behold. The Pirates have Crow at or near the top of their board, so they may be forced to go to their Plan B. Let’s say that Plan B includes one of the high profile high school arms (Tyler Matzek?). That wouldn’t sit well with either one of the next two drafting teams because Baltimore (another team that could have Matzek atop their board) and San Francisco (Matzek, Jacob Turner, and Zack Wheeler just to name a few) both are reportedly to be leaning heavily towards high school arms as well.
The rest of my final 2009 MLB Mock Draft after the jump… (more…)
I mentioned it briefly earlier in the week, but I participated in the MVN MLB Outsider: 2009 Mock Draft. Out of context my turn as the Angels scouting director may not be the most interesting read (that’s why I linked to the whole mock – it’s full of pretty interesting opinions on who is going where and well worth a look), but if you take it as a mini scouting report on the drafted players (Skaggs and Williams) then it sort of works as a stand alone piece. Anyway, I did my best Eddie Bane impression and came up with the following:
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are in prime position to completely restock a rapidly declining farm system with five selections in the draft’s first 48 overall picks. Relatively weak draft or not, scouting director Eddie Bane and his staff are no doubt as geared up for June 9th as Vlad Guerrero sitting on a 3-0 meatball. As much fun as it must be for the Angels front office to actually, you know, have early round picks at their disposal (they haven’t had a first rounder in two years), it’s also serious business for a franchise that has seen their young talent supply dwindle as the decade has rolled along.
So, what to get the farm system that needs everything? The Angels have shown a proclivity towards youth and upside over experience and polish. Due to the desire to get their hands on prospects as early in their development as possible, Eddie Bane has explicitly stated his preference for drafting high school players over college players, all other factors being equal. Keeping that in mind, and noting that potential college targets (Rich Poythress and Rex Brothers to name two) are already off the board, the Angels first pick of the first round is LHSP Tyler Skaggs from Santa Monica HS in California.
In a draft year loaded with high upside prep pitching, the Angels figure to be in on any number of the talented high school arms. Of the pitchers left on the board, Skaggs represents the most impressive blend of projectability and present skills. The Californian portsider is unusually mature for a high school lefthander with a build and curveball that evoke memories of a young, effective Barry Zito. If the comparison to the former Oakland A’s star is unbecoming to an interested Angels fan, then perhaps a more palatable name would be Colorado’s first round pick last year, Christian Friedrich. The similarities in scouting profiles describing both Friedrich and Skaggs are uncanny, but Skaggs has the advantages of youth and projection on his side.
His excellent performance against his tough Southern California high school competition and extensive high level tournament experience give scouts confidence that he’ll make a smooth transition to professional ball. His fastball currently sits at a solid-average 88-90 MPH, but plus movement and above-average command of the pitch make it a good one at present. His aforementioned slow low-70s CB is a plus pitch already. A big part of Skaggs’ success going forward hinges on the development of a solid third offering; whether or not his slowly developing slider or his little used, but promising changeup emerges as that pitch remains to be seen.
Buying on Skaggs means believing in his ability to add bulk to his 6-5, 180 pound frame as a professional. If he fills out as hoped, he’ll be in a much better position to unleash the full potential of his fastball velocity, but it’s far from a guarantee. Even so, a potential mid-90s plus fastball, a present plus curve, and the chance at developing a third above-average offering (I’m a believer in the change, for what it’s worth) make Skaggs a likely target of a team that loves their high reward high school pitchers.
Before getting into which player fits the Angels draft blueprint best, I think it’s wise to make note of the franchise’s willingness to bust slot and draft players with signability red flags in recent years. If a player drops due to signability concerns, then you can be sure scouting director Eddie Bane has confidence that owner Arte Moreno will pony up the big bucks to take advantage. The Angels track record of snagging risky signs in late rounds (Jordan Walden in the 12th, the late Nick Adenhart in the 14th round, and Mark Trumbo in the 18th, and) may not show a perfect correlation to their enthusiasm in taking an early round faller, but it does show a pretty clear pattern of an ownership group willing to spend an extra dollar (give or take seven hundred fifty thousand dollars) to get the player they identify as having the best value with each pick. Players like Grant Green, Donavan Tate, Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, and Shelby Miller all might want to at least mentally prepare for the possibility that they could slide right into the mid-20s and become Angels property before the end of the summer. Get those base tans, flip flops, and board shorts ready just in case, gentlemen.
Assuming the draft board shakes out like it has here so far (no big fallers), the Angels may be faced with their choice of yet another premium prep prospect. Everett Williams is a fast rising, tools-laden high school outfielder from McCallum HS in Austin, Texas. Despite early reports comparing him to speedsters like Houston’s Michael Bourn and fellow 2009 Draft prospect Brian Goodwin, Williams is a different kind of player with a unique power/speed blend. What makes Williams stand out from Goodwin and the rest of the crowded prep outfielder peer group is his ceiling with the bat. Scouts were slow to accept Williams’ near-plus raw power because it didn’t quite look right coming from his thin 5-10, 175 pound frame. The already substantial power took another step forward this spring as Williams followed through on a commitment to adding muscle, putting on close to 15 pounds of good weight since last summer. Combine that with a very strong throwing arm, enough speed and athleticism to easily stick in centerfield, and you’ve got a player that profiles favorably to Detroit outfielder Curtis Granderson. Everett Williams is, like Tyler Skaggs before him, another high upside high school pick for the Angels that just makes sense.
A closing thought as I run up against the maximum word threshold – watch out for the Angels popping University of Washington OF/QB Jake Locker with an early mid-round pick (early as round 4, late as round 7). Adenhart, Trumbo, and Walden were all risky signability picks, but Eddie Bane and his staff did their homework to know exactly how much each player needed to sign on the dotted line. Locker’s commitment to football and time away from baseball make him as risky a signability pick as any player in the draft, but his raw tools are good enough that some team will call an all-out blitz in an attempt to get him signed. That team will be the Angels, you heard it here first.
Another week, another mock. Let’s see what we see…
1.1 Washington – RHSP Stephen Strasburg (San Diego State)
1.2 Seattle – 1B/OF Dustin Ackley (North Carolina)
1.3 San Diego – RHSP Aaron Crow (Missouri/Fort Worth Cats)
1.4 Pittsburgh – RHSP Alex White (North Carolina)
1.5 Baltimore – SS Grant Green (Southern Cal)
I still have no idea which way Seattle is leaning with the second pick. Any one of Ackley, White, Tate, Matzek, or Scheppers could be the guy. Green’s stock is falling faster than [insert fast falling stock symbol here], but I still think it’s a tad reactionary to have him falling more than a few picks from the top considering the total absence of quality bats at premium positions in this year’s draft. Heck, I was one of Green’s biggest detractors heading into this season so if anybody could support a slip in his stock it’s me. About a month ago I said this:
It’s not quite a fully developed idea, but I’ll just throw it out there here so I can have it on the record…Grant Green (Southern Cal, SS) and Jason Donald (Arizona, Phillies, SS/3B/2B). Am I crazy in thinking they have similar enough profiles to compare the two?
I like Grant Green and I like Jason Donald, but I’m not sold on either player being “worth” the fifth overall pick. However, and this is worth pointing out time and time again, the top of the draft has so few interesting bats that there is some justification for reaching for a potential plus bat at a key defensive position.
1.6 San Francisco – OF Donavan Tate (Cartersville HS – Georgia)
1.7 Atlanta – RHSP Zack Wheeler (East Paulding HS – Georgia)
1.8 Cincinnati – RHSP Kyle Gibson (Missouri)
1.9 Detroit Tigers – LHSP Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley HS – California)
1.10 Washington – RHSP Tanner Scheppers (Fresno State/St. Paul Saints)
How do you spell Tate’s first name? I’ve literally seen a 50/50 split (or darn close anyway) in the major publications when it comes to his spelling. Off the top of my head, I think Baseball America and Pefect Game both call him Donavan, but MLB.com claims he goes by Donovan. Even the great Google comes up empty – 824,000 hits for “Donovan Tate” and 870,000 “Donavan Tate” in a race too close to call.
I debated far too long about Atlanta’s pick, but there is too much noise about Atlanta loving Wheeler to go against the grain. Brian Sabean was at a recent Cartersville start to watch Wheeler throw, so it’s entirely possible he’ll be off the board at pick six. In a way that would be convenient because we can then just flip the Giants and Braves picks with little shaking up of the draft board.
Strasburg & Scheppers…that’ll do nicely. I like the Nationals popping Scheppers here because there is absolutely no chance he won’t sign a fair deal, he has no other options besides professional baseball. The question for me is whether or not he’ll be sitting there for them to debate the pick…
1.11 Colorado – RHSP Mike Leake (Arizona State)
1.12 Kansas City – RHSP Shelby Miller (Brownwood HS – Texas)
1.13 Oakland – 3B Bobby Borchering (Bishop Verot HS – Florida)
1.14 Texas – LHSP Matt Purke (Klein HS – Texas)
1.15 Cleveland – LHSP Mike Minor (Vanderbilt)
A prep superstar sandwich with delicious high floor (and high fiber!) college pitcher bread. The Royals and Rangers would both be ecstatic (I’m guessing) if the draft actually went like this, though I now wonder if the two Texan high schoolers might be flip flopped.
1.16 Arizona – LHP/OF Brooks Raley (Texas A&M)
1.17 Arizona – C Max Stassi (Yuba City HS – California)
1.18 Florida – LHP/1B Colton Cain (Waxahachie HS – Texas)
1.19 St. Louis – LHSP Andy Oliver (Oklahoma State)
1.20 Toronto – LHSP James Paxton (Kentucky)
1.21 Houston – LHSP Rex Brothers (Lipscomb)
How’s that for a run on lefthanded pitching? That’s 7 out of 8 lefties if you’re scoring at home, with the run only being broken up by the presence of new top 2009 catcher Stassi. Cain is the real wild card in all of this, but he is only this high up because Florida is such a difficult team for me to project. Cain would be a big stretch at 18, but a high upside, athletic high school arm makes sense in the spot.
1.22 Minnesota – OF Jared Mitchell (Louisiana State)
1.23 Chicago White Sox – RHSP Kyle Heckathorn (Kennesaw State)
1.24 Los Angeles Angels – LHSP Tyler Skaggs (Santa Monica HS – California)
1.25 Los Angeles Angels – 3B Matt Davidson (Yucaipa HS – California)
Mitchell to Minnesota would be a re-draft (they took him out of high school in 2006), so we know he fits their typical draft demographic beautifully. It’s possible that Mitchell fits the Twins model too well, seeing as they already have about a half dozen players with similar skillsets already in the system – it would almost be overkill at this point to draft another.
1.26 Milwaukee – OF Mike Trout (Millville HS – New Jersey)
1.27 Seattle – RHSP Jacob Turner (Westminster Academy – Missouri)
1.28 Boston – RHSP Sam Dyson (South Carolina)
1.29 New York Yankees – RHSP Alex Wilson (Texas A&M)
1.30 Tampa Bay – 1B Rich Poythress (Georgia)
1.31 Chicago Cubs – SS Jiovanni Mier (Bonita HS – California)
1.32 Colorado – OF Kentrail Davis (Tennessee)
Turner to the Mariners makes sense, if they are as willing to pony up the bucks as they have intimated. Projecting the top AL East teams is a killer, but it’s not much more than a coincidence that all three wound up with college players – Dyson and Wilson are high upside arms that would represent good value late in the first, but carry significant injury risk going forward. Poythress is a really hard player to squeeze in, but he’d be a really nice fit for a team in need of another big bat to balance out an already strong lineup, slotting in as either Pena’s successor at first or a DH option down the road. Davis is another player that probably shouldn’t be as high as he is in a vacuum, but in a draft like this he’ll get a substantial bonus because he has shown he can at least hit a little (we’re setting the bar low for bats this year, unfortunately).