What began as a head-to-head matchup piece between the top two high school prospects at each position (inspired by today’s Clint Frazier/Austin Meadows showdown) has turned into a really quick top five at each spot. Long-time readers of the site know how much it pains me to cut rankings off at such a low number, but, as a gigantic NFL Draft fan, I figure going top five is good enough for the great Mike Mayock, so a nobody like me on a nobody site like this can get away with it too. Let’s do this.

C

1. C Reese McGuire (Kentwood HS, Washington)

2. C Jonathan Denney (Yukon HS, Oklahoma)

3. C Nick Ciuffo (Lexington HS, South Carolina)

4. C Chris Okey (Eustis HS, Florida)

5. C Brian Navarreto (Arlington County Day HS, Florida)

Denney has narrowed the gap on McGuire for many (some have Denney ahead), but I still like the athleticism, approach, and swing of the kid from Kentwood. Of course, I’d be thrilled with either at pick 16, the very same spot my hometown team just so happens to be picking this year. I think the top four prep catchers have begun to separate themselves from the pack a bit, but the fifth spot is wide open. I know I’m the millionth person to say this, but, damn, what a strong group of high school catchers.

1B

1. 1B Dominic Smith (Serra HS, California)

2. 1B Nick Longhi (Venice HS, Florida)

3. 1B Rowdy Tellez (Elk Grove HS, California)

4. 1B Zack Collins (American Heritage HS, Florida)

5. 1B Bryce Harman (Lloyd C. Bird HS, Virginia)

As much as I respect players 2-5 on this list, I think it is fair to say that the high school first base hierarchy is Dominic Smith and everybody else. Like the catchers, I believe in the top four holding steady for the foreseeable future with the fifth and final spot being wide open.

2B

1. 2B Anfernee Grier (Russell County HS, Alabama)

2. 2B Christian Arroyo (Hernando HS, Florida)

3. 2B Dalton Dulin (Memphis University HS, Tennessee)

4. 2B Nate Mondou (Charles Wright Academy, Washington)

5. 2B Errol Robinson: (St. John’s College HS, Maryland)

Ranking high school second basemen is a a fool’s game, but I’m a fool so here we go. Grier is the best right now by a pretty fair margin. Above-average is the word of the day with his tools: above-average arm, above-average power upside, above-average hit tool, above-average speed. The only question on Grier for me is whether or not he’ll the chance to stay at 2B or if a team decides they like his bat/speed enough to move him right to CF as a pro. The other four names aren’t known for their big tools, but rather for their well-earned reputations as hard workers, steady gloves, and pesky hitters who do the little things that help them rise above certain physical limitations.

3B

1. 3B Cavan Biggio (St. Thomas HS, Texas)

2. 3B Travis Demeritte (Winder Barrow HS, Georgia)

3. 3B Wesley Jones (Redan HS, Georgia)

4. 3B Jan Hernandez (Carlos Beltran Academy, Puerto Rico)

5. 3B Ryan McMahon (Mater Dei HS, California)

This was the most difficult position to pare down to five names by a long shot. I literally began the process with a dozen players deserving of some time in the top five spotlight. Biggio is the most well-rounded, Demeritte’s defense is special, and Jones can look great or pedestrian on any given day. A friend called Hernandez a less exciting version of Javier Baez, whatever that means. McMahon has been a long-time favorite, as so often happens with these Mater Dei guys. It’s a cop-out to say this about the fifth ranked player on a list, but it would be no surprise if McMahon winds up as the best long-term pro. He’s got a great balance of upside and present skill.

SS

1. SS Oscar Mercado (Gaither HS, Florida)

2. SS JP Crawford (Lakewood HS, California)

3. SS Andy McGuire (James Madison HS, Virginia)

4. SS Connor Heady (North Oldham HS, Kentucky)

5. SS Chris Rivera (El Dorado HS, California)

I’m more confused about Mercado than I am any other 2013 high school position player. I actually was thinking about him last night in the context of straight baseball fandom, and not the guy who runs a draft website. Would I want my team to draft him? If so, how high would I be comfortable taking him? As mentioned a few times already, the Phillies, picking 16th, are my team of choice. If they used pick 16 on Mercado, how would I feel? This may be a silly barometer to use on a wannabe-professional sounding site like this, but it’s hard to hide the fact that I’m always going to be a baseball fan first, and an always wrong draft writer second. I’d be quite pleased with Mercado at 16 at this point. That in and of itself is high praise, I think. This whole internal debate also got me thinking about the man ranked just one spot below Mercado, JP Crawford. If Crawford was the pick at 16, I’d be thrilled. I still see Mercado as a potential above-average regular at shortstop down the line: the tools are all present, with the exception of power/physicality, and I’ve heard from people who have seen him recently that concerns about his effort/attitude/makeup are overblown. Projecting Crawford is almost as difficult, but I think of him as a greater boom/bust type of prospect. If the light bulb goes on, he’s a superstar. If not…

OF

1. OF Austin Meadows (Grayson HS, Georgia)

2. OF Clint Frazier (Loganville HS, Georgia)

3. OF Ryan Boldt (Red Wing HS, Minnesota)

4. OF Justin Williams (Terrebonne HS, Louisiana)

5. OF/LHP Trey Ball (New Castle HS, Indiana)

The whole idea behind this piece was to highlight the forthcoming Meadows vs Frazier head-to-head battle. After starting and stopping a singular piece on the duo for a spell, I came to a realization. This may make me a major chump in the online baseball draft world, but, after thinking about it for much longer than I’d be comfortable admitting, I don’t yet have a strong opinion on Meadows vs Frazier. It’s the ultimate cop-out, but I like both guys a lot. The narrative for the comparison seems to be the toolsy yet raw Meadows (upside!) vs the polished, high-level hitting ability of Frazier (relative safety). Like most media-driven story lines — I used “media” quite loosely here — there is some degree of truth to the labels put upon both players. Meadows does have raw power, athleticism, foot speed, and a throwing arm that add up to one of the draft’s highest ceiling overall talents. Frazier’s swing is a thing of beauty, and he does consistently make loud contact with the meatiest part of the barrel. However, the quick and dirty player archetypes assigned to both fails to address how well-rounded each outfielder is as a prospect. Meadows pitch recognition and patience at the plate is unusually impressive for a young (quick note: he’s a few months younger than Frazier, which matters) hitter. Frazier’s physical gifts, most notably his plus-plus arm, well above-average speed underway, and massive power upside (seriously, Frazier’s hit some of the longest pop-ups I’ve ever recorded, maybe the longest) stack up with any other player in this or any high school class.

As for the rest: Boldt strikes me as somewhat similar to David Dahl, so we’ll have to wait and see if he enjoys any of the same late-spring draft helium; the rawness in Williams’ game scares some away, but it’s exactly what draws me to him; I’m not anti-Ball by any means, but it does send up a little red flag when you realize a) his age relative to his peers in the class, and b) how far he has to go as a hitter. A trio of speedsters (Josh Hart, Terry McClure, Matt McPhearson) would be the next men up. 

I don’t normally differentiate between RHP and LHP, but what the heck. I’ll add a little commentary in an hour or so, but I wanted to get something up here now before the big game down in Georgia.

RHP

1. RHP Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X HS, Texas)

2. RHP Jordan Sheffield (Tullahoma HS, Tennessee)

3. RHP Keegan Thompson (Cullman HS, Alabama)

4. RHP Carlos Salazar (Kerman HS, California)

5. RHP Brett Morales (King HS, Florida)

LHP

1. LHP Robert Kaminsky (St. Joseph Regional HS, New Jersey)

2. LHP Ian Clarkin (James Madison HS, California)

3. LHP Matt Krook (Saint Ignatius HS, California):

4. LHP Jake Brentz (Parkway South HS, Missouri)

5. LHP Stephen Gonsalves (Cathedral Catholic HS, California)

Imagine a really snappy introduction here. Like something impossibly clever. Funny, too. You’ll be walking around all day thinking about what a snappy, clever, funny introduction you just read on that great baseball draft site. Not only was it a memorable introduction, but it really hooked you. The intro was so good that it got you all excited so that you couldn’t wait to read all the great baseball draft stuff written just centimeters below…and then you finally read the baseball draft stuff and it almost topped — almost, but not quite — topped the introduction. Yeah, imagine that.

• Bold = locks to be drafted
• Italics = definite maybes
• Underlined = possible risers
• Plain text = long shots

C

• North Carolina JR C Matt Roberts
• North Carolina JR C Brian Holberton
• Virginia Tech rJR C Chad Morgan
• Duke SR C Jeff Kremer
• Wake Forest SR C Brett Armour
• Florida State rJR C Stephen McGee
• Miami SR C Alex San Juan
• Boston College JR C Nate LaPointe
• Maryland SR C Jack Cleary
• Boston College SR C Matt Paré
• Maryland rSO C Alex Ramsay
• Wake Forest JR C Charlie Morgan
• Duke JR C Mike Rosenfeld
• Florida State JR C Ladson Montgomery

We’re still waiting on Roberts’ first extended stretch of strong college at bats, so take his ranking atop this list as a testament to projection over production. His teammate Holberton has consistently outhit him, but falls just behind based largely on the unknown — at least to me — that is his catching defense. If his drafting team doesn’t want him to catch full-time, he’ll still have intriguing value as Swiss army knife (C/2B/OF) kind of defensive player. I really thought Chad Morgan would be a player thanks to his big power/big arm combo, but time is quickly running out on him. The respective walk rates of Kremer and McGee make me blush.

1B

• Georgia Tech JR 1B Daniel Palka
• North Carolina SR 1B Cody Stubbs
• Duke rSO 1B Chris Marconcini
• Wake Forest rJR 1B Matt Conway
• Maryland JR 1B Tim Kiene
• Virginia rSR 1B Jared King
• Clemson JR 1B Jon McGibbon

Power hitting prospects are often categorized into two basic categories: guys with power and guys who can hit who also happen to have power. That’s far more simplistic than I probably ought to be, but complicated takes time, energy, and skill that a man like me simply does not possess. Anyway, Palka happens to fall into the latter group, a really encouraging thing with respect to his draft stock. He’s a really good hitter first, and a guy with plus-plus power second. I really wish he was quick enough to handle a little bit of RF in the pros, not just because it would do wonders to his value as a player but also because watching him throw is a real pleasure, but I don’t think the projections of Palka to an outfield corner amount to much more than wishcasting. Still a legitimate early-round prospect with starting caliber upside at first, though the pervasive swing-and-miss element to his game remains a worry. I like Palka more than I love him, if that makes sense.

After Palka you’ve got a deep collection of quality college bats that might have a name or two capable of hanging around the minors long enough to someday pop up as a big league bench bat. Stubbs has power, a good glove, and nice size, but also plenty to prove after a disappointing junior season. Marconcini does similar things well while also having something to prove as he continues to bounce back physically from last year’s ACL injury. Matt Conway rounds out the power/glove/size trio. Kiene has the power, but not quite the patience or defensive chops of the others on the list. I have a soft spot for players that exhibit the kind of patience Jared King has shown throughout his career: his junior year line (.306/.457/.503 with 49 BB/37 K and 13/19 SB) makes for a weird statistical profile for a first baseman, and, while weird alone doesn’t make a player a good prospect, it does keep things interesting.

2B

• Clemson JR 2B Shane Kennedy
• Virginia SR 2B Reed Gragnani 
• Georgia Tech SR 2B Sam Dove 
• Georgia Tech JR 2B Mott Hyde
• Miami SR 2B Michael Broad
• North Carolina State SR 2B Matt Bergquist
• Wake Forest SR 2B Mark Rhine
• Wake Forest JR 2B Conor Keniry

I keep waiting for a position that will give me a break where I don’t have to write as much, but damn if the ACC isn’t loaded with intriguing prospects to discuss. The smart money is on none of these players ever getting any consistent at bats at the big league level, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a quality pro or two somewhere in the conference. Kennedy is my favorite because of his overall tools package — hit, power, speed are all a hair above the average mark, and he’s a capable glove anywhere you put him in the infield — but Gragnani lurks as a possible contender to the best ACC second base prospect throne. Of course, calling any of these guys “second basemen” does a bit of disservice to their collective defensive potential.

It is the positional versatility of so many of these players — OF Gragnani, OF Dove, SS Hyde, 3B Broad, SS Bergquist, 3B Rhine — that has me believing there might be a future big league utility infielder or two somewhere hidden in the bunch. If nothing else, spending a pick on one of these players will give you a useful, versatile minor league contributor. That may not be worth a mention from ESPN — all non-first round picks are NP’s not worth spending any time on, obviously — but there’s some hidden value there.

SS

• Clemson JR SS Steve Wilkerson 
• Wake Forest SR SS Pat Blair
• Florida State SR SS Justin Gonzalez 
• Maryland JR SS Kyle Convissar
• Miami JR SS Alex Hernandez
• Duke JR SS Angelo LaBruna

Wilkerson’s hot start is encouraging, but it remains the physical gifts — foot speed, athleticism, agility in the field, quick wrists — that make him a legitimate top ten round draft prospect. Less toolsy, but still talented, Pat Blair is a player I can comfortably identify as one of “my guys.” Reliable glove at either middle infield spot, enough pop to keep pitchers honest, and above-average speed that plays up due to his smarts are all things I can get down with, especially when the guy is a mature, patient hitter. I also like Justin Gonzalez, even though his scouting profile couldn’t be more different. His defense is good enough to keep him at short as a pro, so that’s a huge plus, but his carrying tool has always been his above-average strength and power as a hitter. Forgive me for being a broken record at this point, but Gonzalez seems poised to represent good value — I’m guessing his ceiling is probably rounds 9/10 to a team looking to save some pool money on a senior sign — and could wind up an interesting name to stash in the minors for a few years with the hope something somewhere someday clicks.

Convissar, Hernandez, and LaBruna are all steady gloves first and foremost. I expect to see all three names back on this list next year as senior signs, though Convissar reminds me a little bit of Gonzalez-lite.

3B

• North Carolina JR 3B Colin Moran
• Virginia Tech JR 3B Chad Pinder
• Duke JR 3B Jordan Betts
• Miami JR 3B Brad Fieger
• Miami JR 3B Tyler Palmer
• North Carolina State JR 3B Sam Morgan

Questions about power and defense, two pretty important considerations for a third base prospect, make the battle for top ACC position player a lot closer than many casual draft fans have been led to believe. My appreciation for Moran’s skill set has been on the record for some time. His plate discipline is as good as any amateur’s in the country, his swing is a thing of beauty, and his ability to make in-game and in-at bat adjustments is atypical for a hitter at his level. I think those are all aspects of Moran’s game that give him a clear edge over Pinder. Ah, but what of those aforementioned power and defense? Now you see why Pinder is quickly becoming a household draft name. Even if Pinder was a questionable bat going forward (note: he’s not), his defense the hot corner is good enough to make him an early round pick. Moran’s defense has been discussed ad nauseum across the internet, so my two cents on the topic have to be devalued by now. I’ll only offer the quick and dirty assessment based on what I’ve seen and heard: worst case scenario for Moran as a pro is that his defense is called passable, good enough, or average on his better days. I don’t see him contending for any awards at third, but I don’t think he’s a liability with the glove either. Pinder, on the other hand, should quickly emerge as one of pro ball’s most promising defensive third basemen in short order after signing. If we’re scoring this fight at home, consider defense a decided advantage for Pinder but not quite a knockout blow. That leaves the question of power. I’ll be honest and admit that my longstanding admiration of Moran’s game makes me come off as a bit of an apologist here. To me, power isn’t as much as a separator between the two as defense. It is clear that Pinder has shown more consistent power in his college career than Moran, and I believe he has more raw power to show off going forward. Moran’s lack of recent power — and by recent I mean so far this year and during stretches dating back to last year — can be explained away by injury, a lack of pitches to drive, and a body that only recently morphed from teenager to man. All of this needlessly long paragraph really adds up to is Moran is still the top third base prospect in the ACC (and all of college ball), but Pinder is either a very close second or the 1B to Moran’s 1A. I’ve always been pleased with the idea of Moran to my favorite team (Phillies) in the mid-first (16th), but I’ll amend my pre-season views re: Pinder being selected between rounds two and five. If a team like the Phillies want Pinder, they’d have to take him in the first because he won’t last much longer.

Moran:  In many ways I feel like Moran has been put on the draft landscape just for me. That’s mostly because I’m an unrepentant egotist, but also because I a) love guys who consistently play above their tools, b) am a complete sucker for a pretty lefthanded swing, and c) have the importance of plate discipline, having a plan prior to every at bat, and generally taking a measured yet violent approach to hitting ingrained deep into my pitch black soul. Moran offers up a resounding check mark for each of those qualifications. I think he’s a better version of last draft’s Matt Reynolds with the upside of San Diego 3B Chase Headley.

Pinder: It is way too early to start assigning draft grades, so take the following with a jumbo sized chunk of salt: if you’re a fan of a team in need of a third baseman of the future, then Chad Pinder is as good a non-first round name to follow as any.  If my favorite team misses out on and/or goes a different direction on, say, Colin Moran in the mid-first, then I’d be more than happy with Pinder being the next man up within the round two to five range. Pinder’s defense at third is legitimately exciting to watch. He has really quick feet, a strong arm, and great instincts on the left side of the infield. In a pinch, I’d have no problem playing him up the middle at short, a la a young Ryan Zimmerman. As a hitter, his power is right where you want it for a corner infielder (20+ home run upside) and he’s shown an ability to make critical adjustments game to game as well as pitch to pitch. The big quibble would be his plate discipline — 15 BB/40 K last season — but I think that’s more of a byproduct of how he was pitched in 2012.

I don’t put too much stock into early season numbers, good or bad, but for those that do, none of the other names on the list (Betts to Morgan) have lit the world in fire with big starts. Of the group, I give the edge to Betts because of his enticing blend of power, arm strength, athleticism, and size. Fieger is also a guy worth watching for no other reason than he makes an unusual amount of hard contact. I think it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing a real spike in extra base hits from him.

OF

• Florida State JR OF Marcus Davis
• Georgia Tech SR OF Brandon Thomas
• Virginia Tech rJR OF Tyler Horan
• Miami JR OF Dale Carey 
• Clemson rJR OF Thomas Brittle
• Georgia Tech JR OF Kyle Wren
• North Carolina State SR OF Brett Williams
• Wake Forest rSO OF Kevin Jordan
• Maryland JR OF Mike Montville
• North Carolina State SR OF Tarran Senay
• Virginia Tech rSR OF Andrew Rash
• Wake Forest JR OF James Harris
• North Carolina SR OF Chaz Frank
• Miami SR OF Chantz Mack
• Florida State rSO OF Brett Knief
• Virginia rJR OF Colin Harrington
• Maryland SR OF Jordan Hagel
• North Carolina JR OF Thomas Zengel
• Wake Forest JR OF Evan Stephens
• Boston College JR OF Tom Bourdon
• North Carolina JR OF Parks Jordan
• Boston College SR OF Matt McGovern
• Florida State SR OF Seth Miller
• Clemson JR OF Joe Costigan
• North Carolina State SR OF Bryan Adametz
• Maryland rSO OF Charlie White

I’ve been driving the Marcus Davis bandwagon so long that seeing him hit the ground running at Florida State has been nothing short of beautiful. I’d love to get a better read on his defense — LF only is all I’ve heard, but I wonder if that’s more of a body type bias than anything based on skill level — but his bat has the potential to play anywhere you put him. Power, speed, strength, and a refined approach to hitting all add up to a darn fine hitting talent. One caveat worth mentioning because I’ve gotten similar questions about the topic in the past: Davis’ position atop this list shouldn’t be mistaken as a prediction that he winds up as the ACC’s highest rated outfield prospect come June. Egomaniacal as I may be, I realize full well that my own opinions often wrongly diverge with what both the experts and the drafting teams think about many prospects. These lists aren’t predictions about draft day, but rather rankings that show my personal preference if I was in a position to do the drafting. Many of the names below Davis on this list will go higher than he will in this year’s draft, but the team that takes a chance on him will no doubt be pleased with the player — and value — they are getting.

Thomas and Horan both are viable potential starting outfielders, though I can already envision a scouting report on either one a year or two from now calling them “talented fourth outfielders on a championship contending club, or second-division starters.” It’s easy to dream on draft talent (guilty as charged), but pro evaluation tends to paint a more realistic scouting picture. Thomas’ ability to play center makes him the more likely of the two to stick as an everyday guy. Defense is also responsible for the relatively high placements of Carey, Brittle, Wren, Williams, and Jordan, all players ranging from solid CF professionally to “wow” level defensive ability (Carey and Brittle come to mind).

Pretty sure that Chaz Frank and Chantz Mack were separated at birth. Check their 2012 lines head-to-head:

Chaz: .273/.407/.368
Chantz: .295/.410/.367

3,000+ words of writing makes you look for the little things that keep you amused. I also can’t help but be amused by Charlie White’s inclusion on the list. He was a bit of an afterthought, thrown on the list because of some decent numbers in limited at bats and a few nice things said about him by someone in the know. Well it’s only 37 AB so far, but his .432/.611/.541 line with 11 BB/2 K and 15/18 SB look pretty good. Interestingly enough, Maryland as a team has successfully stolen 44 bases in 52 tries. And they’ve been hit by 23 pitches (6 for White alone) while only plunking 10 guys. Alright I’m done.

SP

• North Carolina JR LHP Kent Emanuel
• Georgia Tech SR RHP Buck Farmer 
• North Carolina rSO RHP Andrew Smith
• Virginia Tech JR RHP Brad Markey
• Georgia Tech JR RHP DeAndre Smelter
• Virginia Tech JR LHP Eddie Campbell
• Virginia JR RHP Artie Lewicki 
• Georgia Tech JR RHP Matthew Grimes
• Duke JR RHP Drew Van Orden
• Georgia Tech JR RHP Dusty Isaacs 
• Georgia Tech JR C/RHP Zane Evans
• Miami JR RHP Javi Salas
• Virginia JR LHP Kyle Crockett
• North Carolina State rJR RHP Anthony Tzamtzis
• North Carolina JR LHP Hobbs Johnson
• Clemson JR RHP Matt Campbell
• Florida State JR RHP Peter Miller
• Miami JR LHP Bryan Radziewski
• Clemson SR RHP Scott Firth
• North Carolina State SR RHP Ryan Wilkins
• Miami SR RHP Eric Whaley
• Maryland JR RHP/3B Jake Stinnett
• Maryland SR LHP Jimmy Reed
• Clemson rJR RHP Mike Kent
• Virginia rSR LHP Scott Silverstein
• Maryland JR RHP Brady Kirkpatrick
• Boston College rJR RHP Matt Alvarez
• North Carolina State SR RHP Ethan Ogburn
• Georgia Tech JR RHP Jonathan Roberts
• North Carolina State SR RHP Chris Overman
• North Carolina JR RHP Shane Taylor
• Boston College JR RHP Eric Stevens
• Boston College JR LHP Steve Green
• Miami JR LHP AJ Salcines
• Miami SR RHP Eric Nedeljkovic
• North Carolina SR RHP Chris Munnelly
• North Carolina State SR RHP Josh Easley
• Virginia rJR RHP Whit Mayberry
• Virginia Tech JR LHP Colin O’Keefe
• Wake Forest SR RHP Justin Van Grouw
• Virginia Tech SR RHP Joe Mantiply
• Wake Forest JR RHP Jack Fischer
• Maryland JR LHP Jamie Pashuck
• Florida State rSO LHP Evan Geist
• Maryland rSO LHP Ben Brewster
• Florida State JR RHP Robby Coles
• Florida State JR LHP Brandon Johnson
• Clemson rSR LHP Joseph Moorefield
• Virginia Tech SR RHP Jake Joyce
• Clemson SR RHP Jonathan Meyer
• Clemson JR RHP Kevin Pohle
• Boston College SO RHP John Gorman
• Wake Forest SR LHP Niko Spezial
• North Carolina State rSR LHP Grant Sasser
• Boston College rSR LHP Nate Bayuk
• Virginia Tech SR RHP Tanner McIntyre
• Miami JR RHP Adam Sargent
• North Carolina JR LHP Tate Parrish
• Wake Forest JR LHP John McLeod
• Virginia JR RHP Austin Young
• Florida State SR RHP Scott Sitz
• Georgia Tech JR LHP Devin Stanton
• Boston College SR RHP Hunter Gordon
• Virginia Tech SR RHP Clark Labitan
• North Carolina State JR LHP DJ Thomas
• Florida State rJR RHP Gage Smith
• Duke SR RHP Chase Bebout
• Wake Forest JR RHP Nate Jones
• Georgia Tech SR RHP Clay Dalton
• Duke JR RHP Robert Huber
• North Carolina State SR RHP Danny Healey
• Georgia Tech JR RHP Alex Cruz

Importance of stuff over stats acknowledged, but you have to give it up to what Buck Farmer is doing at Georgia Tech these days. I need to check with the boys at the Fangraphs lab, but I’m pretty sure allowing one run (unearned) in 21 innings to start the year while racking up 30 strikeouts (1 walk) along the way is pretty good. However, big performances by returning senior prospects are often overrated in a way that looks so obvious in hindsight. This isn’t the only reason why Matt LaPorta’s disappointments as a pro makes sense, but I think his letdown was a warning side for many front offices about the dangers of falling in love with a guy an entire year older than the vast majority of the best of his competition. The risk isn’t as great with pitchers, a group that follows a less predictable growth curve than hitters, so Farmer’s hot start shouldn’t be dismissed outright but merely viewed with through a more cautious lens.

As for the rest of the conference, maybe I’m in the minority or maybe I’m not, but I don’t see a lot of high-end pitching prospects here in 2013. There’s no first round pitcher and no one arm that I’d point to with confidence as a near-certainty to reach the big leagues as a starting pitcher. Th

Kent Emanuel does enough well that you could see him filling in a spot in the back of a rotation professionally one day. The aforementioned Farmer’s more consistent velocity, command, and slider makes him another potential starter. I also like Brad Markey’s balanced arsenal — 88-92 FB, good CB, good enough CU — and DeAndre Smelter’s raw stuff (at its peak) matches anybody in the conference. Andrew Smith has the best “now” stuff: a fastball that hits 94 and two breaking balls that he can use for strikeouts when he needs to. If healthy, you could bump up both Lewicki and Grimes a couple notches; as it is, the relatively high placement of two pitchers currently out after Tommy John surgery is an indication that perhaps the ACC is somewhat lacking in star 2013 arms.

Going team by team was fun, but the college season is creeping up way too quickly for me to get as many teams done as I’d like. Instead, we’ll take a larger view and go conference by conference. The only thing that will slow me down at this point is incomplete or missing 2013 rosters…North Carolina, Louisville, South Carolina, Oregon State, you are all on notice. Congratulations to the Big 12 for being the first conference I’ve seen with every school’s updated roster. So far so good on the Big 10, so as of now they are the leader for next conference up.

Oh yeah, I’ve also started messing around with a 2013 MLB Draft Mock Draft. Not sure it’ll ever see the light of day, but at least it is started. We’ll see if my guilt over not doing a mock for two years overtakes my shallow desire for sweet sweet Google aided page views. Back to the Big 12…

Here’s the key for the player lists:

• Bold = locks to be drafted
• Italics = definite maybes
• Underlined = possible risers
• Plain text = long shots

I included a few relevant comments when I could, but I’m happy to expand on the players from any Big 12 team if anybody is interested. Here we go…

C

• Texas JR C Jacob Felts 
• Baylor SR C Nathan Orf 
• Kansas JR C Kai’ana Eldredge
• Texas Christian JR C Kyle Bacak
• Oklahoma State rJR C Rick Stover
• Oklahoma State JR C Tyler Palmer
• Kansas State rJR C Blair DeBord
• Oklahoma JR C Jake Smith
• Oklahoma State SR C Victor Romero

Felts is the marquee name and the only stone cold mortal lock to get drafted in 2013. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to profile as much more than a quality backup backstop at the pro level, but a backup big league projection beats the heck out of a no big league projection at all. Orf warrants a mention as the best returning Big 12 hitting catcher; he hit a park/schedule adjusted .303/.456/.389 in 234 AB last year. Eldredge ranks second only to Felts in name value — like Felts he was a highly regarded prep prospect back in the day — and offers similar professional upside. I’ve always been fond of athletic catchers, so my longstanding appreciation for Eldredge’s game should come as no  shock. Time at both 2B and SS have kept his defense behind the plate raw, but his arm and agility give him a strong enough defensive foundation to build on. The next step will be figuring things out as a hitter: his .178/.245/.199 line last season would disqualify him as a prospect were it not for the belief that he’s significantly better than he’s shown. Bacak, Stover, and Palmer are all really good defensive players with exceptional throwing arms. If any of the three bust out with the bat, then you have to think draft consideration would quickly follow.

1B

• Texas SR 1B Landon Steinhagen
• Kansas SR 1B Alex DeLeon
• West Virginia JR 1B Ryan McBroom
• Texas Tech rSR 1B Scott LeJeune
• Oklahoma State JR 1B Tanner Krietemeier
• Oklahoma State SO 1B Wes Jones

No huge surprise, but there isn’t much in the way of actual first base prospects in this year’s Big 12 class. Numbers aren’t everything, of course, but it is fairly telling that the highest park/schedule adjusted 2012 slugging mark out of this group comes in at a paltry (by 1B standards) .410. Steinhagen, who can also play some corner OF, has more power than he’s shown, but he’s still less than a 50/50 bet to get drafted. Same could be said for DeLeon, after substituting catcher for corner OF. McBroom, he of the pace-setting .273/.349/.410 line, offers up some promise. I’m barely literate, so correct me if I’m wrong, but do McBroom and LeJeune rhyme? That would be a fun coincidence.

2B

• Kansas State JR 2B Ross Kivett
• Texas Christian SR 2B Josh Gonzales
• Baylor rJR 2B Lawton Langford
• Texas Christian JR 2B Brett Johnson
• Baylor SR 2B Steve DalPorto

Rare to find a true second base prospect worth getting excited about — most 2B are made and not born, after all — but there are a few moderately interesting Big 12 middle infielders of note. The one thing that stands out across the board is the impressive plate discipline shown by each member of this group. The player strongest in this area, Ross Kivett, just so happens to be my favorite. Kivett’s a really good runner, both in terms of speed and smarts, with just enough pop that I think his bat will keep from being a zero professionally. Gonzales is also a speedster; his steadier glove and senior sign status could help him overtake Kivett before the end of the year. Langford is a rock solid college player who defends the heck out of his position. Lack of defensive versatility hurts just about every guy on the list; the zero sum positional game is one of the reasons why 2B is such a tough position to find viable prospects.

3B

• Texas JR 3B Erich Weiss
• Texas Tech JR 3B Jake Barrios
• Texas Christian rSR 3B Jantzen Witte
• Texas JR 3B Madison Carter
• Baylor SR 3B/OF Cal Towey
• Texas Christian rSR 3B Davy Wright
• Kansas State rJR 3B RJ Santigate
• Oklahoma SR 3B Garrett Carey
• Baylor SR 3B Jake Miller

The top three names are all exciting to me for various reasons. Weiss is criminally underrated for reasons I’m not quite sure I understand. Again, numbers don’t always tell the whole story when scouting, but compare these two players last two seasons (park/schedule adjusted):

Player A

2011: .351/.462/.577 – 51 BB/31 K – 248 AB
2012: .341/.417/.471 – 22 BB/23 K – 170 AB – 1/3 SB)

Player B

2011: .384/.514/.558 – 55 BB/36 K – 224 AB
2012: .409/.481/.635 – 23 BB/41 K – 203 AB – 10/12 SB

Those 2011’s are eerily similar, right? There’s some separation in 2012: Player A strikes out less, steals fewer bases, and hits for less power. All things being equal, as much as I love the slightly better walk rate of Player A, I’d have to go Player B on the strength of his numbers alone. Player B is Erich Weiss, Player A is everybody’s first round pick Colin Moran. Now even after all that, I’d still take Moran. The UNC junior is a much better defender at third, and, yeah, more patient at the plate, a big plus for me always. I know some have knocked Weiss’ swing and believe he’s in for a major revamp at the professional level. I can’t say I agree, but it is at least a legitimate argument for Moran’s bat — he could wake up in the middle of the night and hit line drives with his swing — over Weiss’. Relative strengths of bats aside, it ultimately comes down to this fairly simple observation: the possibility that Weiss is a corner outfielder in the pros looms much more likely than in the case of Moran. I really, really want a chance to see Texas this year, so hopefully I’ll learn some firsthand knowledge about Weiss’ defense at the hot corner. Failing that, I’ll keep my ear to the ground for any mention at all about his defensive progress. Big, underrated draft story line to watch this spring. While everybody is watching San Diego’s Kris Bryant, a player with a somewhat similar defensive forecast, I’ll be focused on Weiss. Well, Weiss and Bryant. And a few hundred others. I enjoy multi-tasking.

Barrios, the second name on the list, has been on the draft radar for years. He’s certainly got a lot of life experience out of his travels — from LSU to juco ball in Kansas (Seward County) and now settling in at Texas Tech — but the lack of consistent playing time leaves him something of a mystery as a prospect. I like his defensive tools, power upside, and positional versatility can also play 2B and SS). Nice player. One note on Barrios that I may only find interesting: he’s shrunk since high school. Not literally, of course, but rather in how his height and weight have appeared through the years. My oldest notes on him had him at 6-3, 200 pounds and growing. Texas Tech currently lists him at 6-0, 200 pounds. Wonder where those three inches went…

The third and final exciting name belongs to Jantzen Witte.  I actually used the word “love” twice in my notes on Witte, first when talking about his defense and again when referencing his approach to hitting. His part/schedule adjusted numbers have been stellar the past two years (.370/.434/.516 in 2011 and .364/.419/.500 in 2012) though there are still some around the game who question whether or not he’ll hit enough to profile as a regular at third. I’ll admit to never really associating Witte’s name with starting caliber big league player in my mind, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have it in him. I’m pulling these numbers out of thin air here, but I’d be quite pleased if my favorite team targeted him as an affordable senior sign prospect between rounds six and ten. There are some big college names later in the ranks as the Big 12 is stacked with veteran third basemen this year. Towey’s defensive versatility makes him the most draftable at present, though arguments could be made for Santigate, Carey, and Miller, above-average defensive players all. As with the catchers profiled above, if any one of those three get the bat going, draft day could get interesting in a hurry.

SS

• Texas Christian SO SS Derek Odell
• Texas Christian JR SS Paul Hendrix
• Oklahoma SR SS Jack Mayfield
• Texas JR SS Alex Silver
• Oklahoma JR SS Hector Lorenzana
• Texas JR SS Ty Marlow
• Kansas SR SS Kevin Kuntz

I’m not quite sure how TCU’s opening day lineup will shake out, but I do know there is some envious depth found up and down the roster. So far we have two redshirt-seniors on the 3B list, two worthwhile 2B prospects, and now two quality shortstops.  I’m not positive either player will actually stick at shortstop, but I’ll give both Horned Frogs the benefit of the doubt for now. Odell’s bat has a chance of playing at 3B if his lack of foot speed necessitates a switch. Hendrix could probably due the same, thanks to impressive power to the gaps, above-average athleticism, and a strong arm. Mayfield is an intriguing two-way talent whom I prefer as a middle infielder. His plus athleticism, above-average speed, and quick hands give him the look of a future utility option. There’s little impact potential within the group, but Odell’s tool set, impressive freshman season (.322/.383/.471 in 174 AB), and last name that makes me nostalgic for my old Apple IIGS all help make him the current leader of the pack.

OF

• Kansas State JR OF Jared King
• Texas JR OF Mark Payton
• Texas rJR OF Matt Moynihan
• Oklahoma SR OF Max White 
• Oklahoma State JR OF Aaron Cornell
• Texas rJR OF Cohl Walla
• Kansas State SR OF Tanner Witt
• Texas Christian rSO OF Axel Johnson
• Kansas SO OF Michael Suiter
• West Virginia SR OF Brady Wilson
• West Virginia rJR OF Matt Frazer
• Texas JR OF Weston Hall
• Texas Tech rJR OF Devon Conley
• Kansas JR OF Tucker Tharp
• Oklahoma State SR OF Jarrett Higgins
• Oklahoma State SR OF Trey Whaley
• Texas Tech SR OF Brennan Moore
• Oklahoma rSO OF Colt Bickerstaff
• West Virginia rSR OF Chris Rasky

I don’t want to downplay how strong a prospect Jared King is (uses whole field extremely well, good hit tool and power upside, like him but don’t love him due to range/arm that likely limits him to LF), but the real headliner from this group of outfield prospects is the current collection of flycatchers in Austin. I’d happily pay more money than a broke 20something with lousy student loans ought to just to watch the trio of Mark Payton, Matt Moynihan, and Cohl Walla chase down flyballs. Injuries and transfer rules have kept the three from playing much together — not sure they’ve ever all been in the same outfield, but I’m too lazy to check — but a new year brings hope that the three will finally take the field as a unit. Payton is the safest prospect of the three, a legitimate plus to plus-plus runner with clear CF range, sneaky pop, and a balanced approach at the plate. He’s also the only one of the three who can say has been on the field enough to put up meaningful numbers (.370/.461/.567 with 8/13 SB) over the past calendar year. After transfers from both San Diego and Orange Coast CC, Moynihan has now approached mythical creature status for me: he’s like the Slender Man of the college baseball world. When he has played, he’s shown tremendous speed and athleticism with an approach to hitting well suited for the top of a lineup. Walla missed the 2012 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL. Before the injury he had speed and CF range that rivaled both Payton and Moynihan, at one point earning defensive comps to former Longhorns CF Drew Stubbs. At 100% a case could be made for Walla as the most intriguing of the three outfielders, thanks in large part to having the most raw power and arm strength of the group. Unfortunately there’s no telling how the injury will impact his game. Additionally, the lack of collegiate production (.250/.343/.313 in 144 swing at everything in 144 AB in 2011) can’t wholly be ignored.

King and the Texas trio aren’t the only Big 12 outfielders worth knowing for 2013. Max White and Tanner Witt have both hit enough in the past that you can project them as potential backup outfielders at the next level. That alone would be great, but there’s no need to stop simply at backup outfielder: both guys have played extensively at other positions — White can play anywhere but C and SS, Witt has experience at both 2B and SS — over the years. I admittedly didn’t know much about Witt just a few days ago, but his positional versatility, speed, and plate discipline (41 BB/20 K last year) have my attention. Cornell, Johnson, and Suiter have all flashed big league tools at times, but have yet to put it together over an extended stretch of time.

P

• Oklahoma JR RHP Jonathan Gray
• Texas Christian JR RHP Andrew Mitchell
• Texas JR RHP Corey Knebel
• Oklahoma JR LHP Dillon Overton
• Texas Christian rSO RHP Trey Teakell
• Oklahoma State rJR RHP/OF Mark Robinette
• Oklahoma JR LHP Billy Waltrip
• Texas JR RHP Nathan Thornhill
• Texas Tech JR RHP Trey Masek
• Kansas SR RHP Tanner Poppe
• Oklahoma State SR RHP Randy McCurry
• Texas rJR RHP Josh Urban
• Baylor JR RHP Dillon Newman
• Baylor JR RHP Trae Davis
• Baylor rSR RHP Max Garner
• Oklahoma State rSO RHP Jason Hursh
• Texas Christian JR RHP Stefan Crichton
• Kansas JR RHP Frank Duncan
• Baylor JR RHP Miles Landry
• Oklahoma JR RHP Kyle Hayes
• Baylor SR RHP Kolt Browder 
• Kansas State JR LHP Gerardo Esquivel
• Texas JR LHP Kirby Bellow
• Texas Christian JR LHP Trevor Seidenberger
• Baylor SR LHP Crayton Bare
• Baylor JR LHP Brad Kuntz
• Texas Christian JR RHP Nick Frey
• Texas JR RHP Justin Peters
• Kansas State JR LHP Jared Moore
• Kansas rSR RHP Thomas Taylor
• Texas Christian SR RHP Justin Scharf
• Oklahoma SR LHP Jake Fisher
• Texas Tech JR LHP Andre Wheeler
• West Virginia JR RHP Ryan Tezak
• Oklahoma JR LHP Ethan Carnes
• Kansas State SR LHP Joe Flattery
• Oklahoma JR RHP Kindle Ladd
• Oklahoma State JR RHP Vince Wheeland
• Kansas State rSO LHP/1B Shane Conlon
• West Virginia SR RHP Dan Dierdorff
• West Virginia rSO LHP Harrison Musgrave
• West Virginia rJR LHP Marshall Thompson
• West Virginia JR RHP Josh Harlow
• Oklahoma State rSO LHP Tyler Nurdin
• Kansas State SO RHP Nate Williams
• West Virginia JR LHP Zach Bargeron
• West Virginia JR RHP Corey Walter

I generally feel that making early proclamations on pitchers ends badly for the prognosticator. Maybe it’s because pitchers are inherently fickle beasts. Maybe it’s because sudden jumps in stuff can happen with changes in role and/or mechanics once that special something clicks. Maybe it’s because I don’t know nearly as much as I think I do about baseball. In any event, this year’s group of Big 12 pitchers is particularly confounding. The top five arms could all be switched around and I wouldn’t put up a fight. In fact, I juggled them around a few times myself just before hitting the Publish button.

After a good bit of internal debate, I leapfrogged Jonathan Gray over Andrew Mitchell for the top spot. Gray is a big, strong righthanded pitcher who can show up to four plus pitches on any given day. He’s good. Mitchell reminds me a little bit of Arkansas RHP Nolan Sanburn at this same point last year. He has the three-pitch mix needed to make it as a starting pitcher in pro ball. That’s a role he can potentially excel in, but I do worry some about his diminished fastball velocity as a starter. Corey Knebel earned the rare and beautiful FAVORITE distinction in my notes after his freshman season at Texas. Nothing since then has made me like him any less: good heat (91-94), nasty yet underutilized CB, good sinker. His changeup still needs work, but there’s a lot to like. Dillon Overton had a sensational 2012 season (9.68 K/9 | 1.69 BB/9 | 3.16 FIP | 122.2 IP) that got a little bit lost in the upperclassman 2012 draft shuffle. It’s now his turn to step out of Andrew Heaney’s shadow and get his due in 2013. Trey Teakell’s buzz word this spring will be projection. He’s already got a diverse four-pitch mix going for him, so teams will be excited to see if his obvious athleticism, easy velocity, and frame with ample room to grow combine to help him round into something truly great.

There are plenty of future relievers of note who should hear their names called on draft day. Randy McCurry has long been a favorite as an athletic two-way talent capable of reaching the mid-90s while flashing a plus breaking ball. Josh Urban can also hit the mid-90s, but below-average command and control has held him back to this point. Jason Hursh’s (another FAVORITE) return from Tommy John surgery didn’t quite go as planned last spring, but his raw stuff (97-98 peak FB with explosive movement down in zone, flashes above-average CB) rivals that of any pitcher in the conference when on. Stefan Crichton might be viewed as a starter for some, and rightfully so, but I like him best as a sinker/slider reliever at the next level. The best mix of present stuff, production, and projection from the next talent level down probably belongs to either Frank Duncan (well-rounded four-pitch mix, 8.41 K/9 last year, sturdy 6-4, 200 pound frame) or Kolt Browder (low-90s heat, occasional plus breaking ball, sweet baseball name). Kyle Hayes hasn’t yet had the opportunity to do it under the bright lights of college baseball, but the San Diego State and Howard JC transfer is one to watch. The fastest fastball I have on any of the underlined guys is 90 MPH, so you know they all find find ways with command, movement, and at least one above-average offspeed pitch apiece. There’s some solid bullpen upside there, hence the bonus points awarded for the lefties.