If semi-incoherent ramblings about a very specific and unimportant topic with no readily apparent conclusion or point is what gets you going, be prepared to start your week off with something special. If not, congratulations – you’re normal. I’ve got a hunch that anybody out there willing to read some dummy’s baseball draft website probably isn’t “normal” anyway (and I say that with nothing but love), so why not just give in and see where our aimless thoughts will lead us today…
The top 15 righthanded starting pitching prospects as listed on this site, in descending order:
An updated list might look a little something like this:
The tiers align with the first round board tiers from last week, with the exception of Dyson rising up to join Wilson and Berry. Volz and Inman are especially difficult players to place, so they got their own private tiers – it’s the perfect solution for a lazy writer like me, really. Nesseth, Heckathorn, Black, Cowan, and Hale are all players that are personal favorites from my initial top 15, but have such mixed opinions that I’m lost on where to slot them in. I guess what I think is most important to take away from the bottom three tiers is that Volz is a clear step above the Nesseth/Heckathorn/Black/Cowan/Hale group (in the eyes of scouts) and Inman has dropped enough that he is clearly below the group (in my eyes). Further complicating the matter is Nesseth’s switch back to the Nebraska bullpen, but I’ll leave him in with this group for now because I still think his stuff works as a starter professionally.
Players considered for the list, but left off for now include Blake Smith (Cal), Scott Bittle (Mississippi), Jorge Reyes (Oregon State), AJ Griffin (San Diego), and Brad Stillings (Kent State). Smith’s status as a two-way player vexes me, Bittle’s stuff may actually work better as a starter/swingman in the long run, and Griffin is a gigantic personal favorite that will see his stock fly up my own personal rankings when I do my next revisions.
Notable players still missing from the list are the righty college relievers – Ben Tootle (Jacksonville State), Jason Stoffel (Arizona), Brad Boxberger (Southern Cal), and Brian Pearl (Washington) all profile best as relievers. Perhaps I can be convinced otherwise (Boxberger and Pearl might have stuff that would translate; Tootle and Stoffel are much better fits in the pen), but for now all four would strictly be drafted as relievers if I was running the show.
For my money, the 2009 college righthanded pitching class absolutely trounces the 2008 class in terms of both quality and depth. However, the comparison between the two years is a tricky one to make because, and I really believe it’s as simple as this, the 2008 pitching class was an extremely weird one. The proponderence of college relievers made it an unusual draft at the time, but it’s gotten even weirder as we begin to see the long-term plans some of the big league teams have for their drafted relievers. Andrew Cashner, Joshua Fields, Ryan Perry, and Carlos Gutierrez were all college closers drafted in the first round. Of the four, it appears that only Fields and Perry are totally locked into their roles as professional relievers; Cashner and Gutierrez both may have the stuff to work better as pro starters. How do we then judge this class of pitching prospects? Are all four labeled as relievers? Does their eventual professional position carry more weight than their college position? How do we reconcile the fact that we don’t actually know the eventual landing spot of players like Cashner, Gutierrez, or Brad Holt? They may be given every shot imaginable to start, yet may work best as relievers in the long run. To simplify my life, I’m only going to evaluate players that were clearly scouted and drafted as starting pitchers.
The 2008 class was also a weird one because of the huge numbers of very talented players who slid down the board into the mid-rounds. These players were all almost cut from the exact same cloth – gigantic frames, big fastballs, questionable control and collegiate performance, and an inability to stay healthy. For this reason, it is my belief that this comparison would have been more enlightening if done with a pre-draft ranking of the available talent. Players like Chris Carpenter, Scott Green, Brett Hunter, Erik Davis, and Luke Burnett, to name a few, may have ranked higher on such a list. Kyle Heckathorn and Mike Nesseth, be forewarned.
2008 Top 15 College Righthanded Pitchers (7 college relievers, denoted with *)
Aaron Crow, Andrew Cashner*, Joshua Fields*, Ryan Perry*, Carlos Gutierrez*, Shooter Hunt, Brad Holt, Lance Lynn, Bryan Price*, Tanner Scheppers, Tyson Ross, Josh Lindblom*, Cody Adams, Aaron Shafer, Cody Satterwhite*
To this point, Cashner, Lindblom, and Price have all been tried as starters; Gutierrez and Satterwhite have so far only pitched out of the pen. I should also note that I was inconsistent in the way I included unsigned players (by memory, I think I only left out Scott Bittle), but I felt that excluding Crow and Scheppers would only create an unfair representation of the 2008 draft’s true talent level.
2008 Top 15 College Righthanded Starting Pitchers
Aaron Crow, Shooter Hunt, Brad Holt, Lance Lynn, Tanner Scheppers, Tyson Ross, Cody Adams, Aaron Shafer, Stephen Fife, Bobby Lanigan, Drew Liebel, Chris Carpenter, Aaron Pribanic, Scott Green, Vance Worley
Of that group, Holt, Fife, and Green may be future relievers, but all three were drafted as starters. College relievers excluded from this list, in addition to the names in the previous group, were Bryan Shaw, Zach Stewart, and Craig Kimbrel.
After all that, we’re left with comparing the following two pools of players. In one corner, we have the 2008’s:
Crow was king in 2008, but will slot in anywhere between second and fourth this year. Hunt is a quality arm and was a real steal to go as late as he did, but he isn’t in the same prospect class as Gibson, White, Leake, or a healthy Scheppers. I like Dyson, tentatively slotted 7th on the 2009 list, better than I do any of the 2008’s save Crow. If I had to do an overall ranking
Strasburg/Gibson/White/Crow/Leake/Scheppers/Dyson/Hunt/Wilson/Berry/Holt/Volz…and then things get especially murky. From that point on, however, the list would be more about trying to figure out where exactly to squeeze in the 09’s (namely Heckathorn, Hale, and Nesseth) than finding spots for the 08’s (as much as I like guys like Ross and Worley, I’m not sure I could put them over a Black or a Cowan with confidence). There are plenty of slightly later round picks from 2008 (Ethan Hollingsworth, Dan Hudson, Colby Shreve, DJ Mitchell, Michael Stutes) that would also muddle up the picture of what my pre-draft top 15 would look like, but I’ll stubbornly stick with judging the top ranked players from past years based on draft order for now. A comparison between the 2009’s and 2010’s will be better next season because I can compare and contrast my own pre-draft rankings, lists that hopefully give a better idea of talent-level than draft order (which is often skewed by signability and simple team preference).
If you were to include the college relievers from the 2008 class, the overall talent gap would close. Lindblom and Cashner were both players viewed as strong candidates to be switched to the rotation, so if we pretended they were drafted as such, they would compare favorably with Dyson and Wilson as starting pitching prospects. Come to think of it, I wonder if there is a comp to be made between Lindblom and Dyson. That might be worth looking into…but now I’m merely thinking out loud, a sure sign it’s time to wrap this up.
In conclusion…wait, I have no real conclusion. Hmm. In conclusion, 2009 looks like a better year for top end college righthanded starting pitching, but when the 09’s are headed up by Stephen Strasburg and three other potential top ten picks, that’s hardly much of a conclusion at all. I’m willing to concede that the depth between the two classes is pretty close in talent-level, but I’d still give the edge to 2009…though there is still plenty of time left between now and June to sort out who constitutes the “depth” of which we speak of in the 2009 Draft. My real conclusion is actually 100% unrelated to college righthanded pitching prospects. I thought of a pretty good comp for a potential top ten pick the other day, but I’m not all the way there with it just yet, if you know what I mean. It’s not quite a fully developed idea, but I’ll just throw it out there here so I can have it on the record…Grant Green (Southern Cal, SS) and Jason Donald (Arizona, Phillies, SS/3B/2B). Am I crazy in thinking they have similar enough profiles to compare the two?
20.1 IP 13 H 4 ER 4 BB 45 K (2 WP, 1 HBP)
Strikeouts – Swinging/Looking: 36/9
There has been only one inning this year that Strasburg hasn’t struck out at least one batter, including the two partial innings he has thrown in each start (each 2/3rds of an inning). He has struck out the side in 8 out of his 19 completed innings. He’s good.
Better late than never, right? The righthanded pitchers listed below comprise 5 of the top 8 prospects ranked on the College Big Board 1.0. If you’re a fan of a team picking in the top half of round one, these are five names to know forwards and backwards. We continue the countdown of college righthanded starting pitching prospects with the players ranked 5 through 2 (who will be number one??????)…after the jump. (more…)
And we’re back. We started the countdown of the top 15 draft-eligible righthanded college pitchers yesterday with 15 through 11. One thing I forgot to mention when players 15-11 were unveiled yesterday was that the list is restricted only to righthanded college starting pitching prospects – it’s a no reliever zone here. The bullpen guys will get their own special ranking at a later date. The top 10 through 6 draft-eligible college righthanded starting pitching prospects right after a very special picture. See, the young woman pictured below isn’t just making an appearance because showing pretty girls is an easy way to increase traffic; no, I’m far too classy a gent to stoop to that level. She is actually the significant other of the player used as a comparison to the sixth ranked player on the list. Hmm…
10 through 6 after the jump… (more…)
Ahhh, actual content. Get your work week off started off right by perusing the first third of the 2009 Rule 4 Draft’s finest draft-eligible college righthanded pitchers. Make sure to check back throughout the week as we count down to the number one spot. I won’t reveal too much information about our number one college righty, except to say that he could potentially be referred to as S. Strasburg. No, wait – too obvious. Let’s just call him Stephen S. Yeah, that’s much better. College righthanders 15 through 11 right after this stunning picture our 11th ranked righty…
To make organization around these parts a little bit easier, here is a list of 32 high school righthanded pitchers worth knowing so far. Players already covered appear both in bold and in parentheses. Each player’s info is displayed using the following basic format:
Name, height, weight, fastball velocity, other pitches — slider, curveball, changeup, etc., miscelleaneous information
The list of players to watch will surely grow between now and June, but this ought to serve as a decent resource for the time being.
- (Mark Appel, 6-4, 185, FB: peak 92, SL, CU)
- Jake Barrett, 6-3, 225, FB: peak 91, sits upper-80s, CB, CU, good young power hitter
- Justin Bellez, 6-1, 180, FB: peak 92, SL: 10/4, CU, repeatable easy mechanics
- Bryan Berglund, 6-3, 175, FB: 89-91, SL: [+] 81-86, CU
- (Ethan Carter, 6-5, 205, FB: peak 90-91, SL: mid-70s, CU: low-80s, cut fastball)
- (Brody Colvin, 6-4, 190, FB: 90-93, CB: 10/4, CU)
- (Jordan Cooper, 6-1, 195, FB: peak 91, CB/SL: [+] potential, injury history)
- Michael Dedrick, 6-3, 185, FB: low-90s, CB: [+]
- Dylan Floro, 6-1, 175, FB: peak 92, CB, SL, CU, four average or above pitch guy
- (Mychal Givens, 6-1, 185, FB: peak 96-98, SL, CU, excellent sinker)
- Garrett Gould, 6-4, 195, FB: 88-91, CB: 12/6, 81, spike, CU: 78-80, above average command and pitchability
- (Matt Graham, 6-3, 195, FB: peak 94, CB)
- (Scott Griggs, 6-2, 185, FB: sits low-90s, peak 95, plus command and makeup)
- Brooks Hall, 6-5, 200, FB: 90-92, SL, CU, sound delivery
- (Michael Heller, 6-2, 180, FB: sits 90-93, peak 95, CB, CU: 75)
- Matt Hobgood, 6-4, 240, FB: sits 91-93, peak 95, good hitter
- (Chris Jenkins, 6-7, 235, FB: sits 91-93, peak 94, SL: [+] potential, command issues, high effort delivery)
- Matt Koch, 6-3, 185, FB: 88-91, SL, CB, CU, raw mechanics
- (Shelby Miller, 6-3, 195, FB: sits 91-93, peak 94, CB: mid-70s, CU: 80, SL, holds velocity late, exceptional balance, heavy fastball)
- James Needy, 6-6, 195, FB: low-90s, CB, SL, CU
- Keifer Nuncio, 6-2, 195, FB: peak 91, CB, CU
- (Brooks Pounders, 6-5, 220, FB: peak 94, CB: [+] potential, plus hitter)
- David Renfroe, 6-3, 180, FB: 88-92, CB: 12/6, clean and easy mechanics, plus athlete
- Felix Roque, 6-5, 200, FB: 88-91, SL: [+], CU, heavy sinker
- (Keyvius Sampson, 6-1, 185,FB: low-90s, peak 95, CB: low-80s, CU: potential [+], clean delivery, plus athlete)
- Trent Stevenson, 6-6, 165, FB: 86-90, SL: 73-78,
- Chad Thompson, 6-8, 215, FB: sits 90-93, peak 94, CB, CU, SF: potential [+]
- (Jacob Turner, 6-4, 205, FB: peak 93/94, CB: [+] pitch in mid-70s, CU: circle change, clean mechanics, good command)
- (Daniel Tuttle, 6-2, 185, FB: sits 90-93, peak 94, SL: 10/4 [+] pitch, sinker)
- (Zack Wheeler, 6-4, 180, FB: peak 95, SL: potential [+], low-80s, CB, splitter)
- Zack Von Rosenberg, 6-5, 200, FB: 88-91, CB: mid-70s, CU: high-70s, good mechanics
- Madison Younginer, 6-3, 185, FB: low-90s, peak 94, CU: sinking action, CB
Finally, the top high school righthanded pitcher in the 2009 draft class. Because we’ve already spoiled the surprise in the title, let’s get right down to it. Before we do that, here’s the rest of the list:
1. Shelby Miller – Brownwood HS (Texas)
Miller has established himself as the premier high school righthanded pitcher of the 2009 draft class. While Miller is an outstanding prospect who carries a no doubt about it first round grade, the distinction as best high school righthanded pitcher doesn’t carry quite the same weight this year as it may have carried in years past. Unlike the gargantuan distance between the top two high school lefthanders and the rest of the prep lefty field, there is very little that separates the “elite” group of high school righties from the rest of the group. I wonder if that’s a byproduct of the very nature of what makes up a “high school righthanded pitching prospect.” Or maybe this particular class of high school righthanders just so happens to have a whole bunch of similarly talented players. I don’t know. What I do know is that the 2009 high school righthanders are a talented bunch headed up by a pretty exciting young player in Shelby Miller. Miller is just one of five high school righthanders that currently carry near-consensus first round grades, a list that also includes Jacob Turner, Mychal Givens, Zack Wheeler, and Scott Griggs. Miller is also one of a whopping seven pitchers that I personally consider first round caliber talents out of this group – the five aforementioned arms, plus Keyvius Sampson and Brooks Pounders, should be first rounders come June when it all comes together for them this spring.
No picture before the jump, but instead words of empirically juiced up wisdom from a man much smarter than I. The three groups referred to here are high school pitchers, college pitchers, and college hitters, by the way. Read, ponder, and then kindly check out more on the top prep righty after the jump…
Draft Rule #8: There is virtually no difference whatsoever in the value of the other three groups of draft picks. In particular, it is no longer apparent that high school pitchers, even in the first round, are significantly riskier than either high school hitters or college pitchers.
From 1992 to 1999, pitchers out of college returned 14.6% less value than expected. Pitchers drafted out of high school were at -14.9%. High school hitters checked in at -20.9%.