2015 MLB Draft Reviews – Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 2015 MLB Draft Picks
OF Ian Happ (9) was a great pick. That is all. For more, here’s past-me…
A switch-hitting Michael Brantley with the chance to stick in the dirt. That’s one of the ways JR OF/2B Ian Happ was described to me recently. I like it. Happ is a really well-rounded player with no tool worse than average who is quick, strong, and athletic. He controls the strike zone well (career 79 BB/67 K), swipes bags at a high success rate (44 SB at 81% success), and has exposure to a variety of different positions on the diamond. That last point is a little bit of a spin job by me, but I think he’s a talented enough player to figure things out defensively at whatever spot his pro teams wishes to play him. That’s the biggest — only? — question surrounding Happ’s game. A guy with the upside to hit .280+ with strong on-base skills, pop to hit double-digit homers regularly (20ish as a ceiling?), and the speed to swipe 25+ bases every season through his prime strikes me as a very valuable offensive player at any position on the diamond. I’d trot him out at second base for as long as possible because I think he’s got the hands, instincts, and athleticism to stay up the middle. If that doesn’t work, my next stop for him would be center. Others think he could work at third, an outfield corner (why there and not center doesn’t make sense to me, but what do I know), or even shortstop if given enough reps. That kind of positional versatility (or uncertainty if you’re the negative sort) brings to mind a fairly obvious comp: Ben Zobrist. Zobrist’s unusual place in today’s game — players capable of playing well at so many different defensive spots are a rarity, plus he’s a really late-bloomer who has exceeded even the loftiest expectations scouts may have once had for him — make him a hard player to comp anybody to, but here we are. Feel free to stick with Brantley as a possible outcome if you find Zobrist objectionable.
I made a pre-draft statistical comparison between Happ and former Bearcat Josh Harrison that I’ve updated below.
.338/.463/.552 – 128 BB/116 K – 56/74 SB – 718 PA
.358/.439/.533 – 80 BB/56 K – 63/74 SB – 831 PA
Top is Happ and the bottom Harrison’s career numbers while at Cincinnati. I chalk the similarities here up more to coincidence than anything (if you like coincidences consider that Harrison was drafted by, you guessed it, the Cubs), but you have to admit the similarities are striking. Happ is bigger, stronger, faster, and more disciplined as a hitter. His offensive upside is still considerably more impressive than Harrison’s, outstanding 2014 season (which may or may not be an outlier when it’s all said and done) notwithstanding. Defensively, the comparison might have some merit has Harrison has defied the expectations of many by working himself into a solid second/third baseman and a passable corner outfielder. That’s clearly something for the athletic and capable Happ to aspire towards. Brantley, Zobrist, or a better Harrison?
Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Soler, Baez, Alcantara, McKinney, Vogelbach, Almora, Torres, Jimenez, Zagunis, Happ, AND Dewees? That’s just unfair. I mean, we knew the Cubs would have a crack at a top bat with the ninth overall pick (it was bat or Allard at that point), but getting a mid-first round talent like OF Donnie Dewees (15) in the second is just unfair. Dewees has gotten off to a slow start as a pro, but that’s little cause for concern for the young outfielder who mashed his way to a .422/.483/.749 (30 BB/16 K) junior season. He’s going to hit and he’s going to hit some more, so the only real question on him is whether or not he’ll eventually wind up in center or left. I believe in the offensive profile so much that I think the difference would be star (CF) or above-average regular (LF).
OF DJ Wilson (189) is a fascinating prospect to play the comp game with. Perfect Game mentioned Brett Gardner. Baseball America said Adam Eaton. I had personally heard Dave Roberts. Something about that trio of players intrigues the hell out of me. Besides the Roberts comp, the most interesting thing I heard about Wilson — and I heard plenty because of some familial ties to the area — was how where he’d be drafted would trump when he’d be drafted. In other words, his success in pro ball will have a lot to do with the kind of instruction he receives at the earliest stages of his career. It’s easy to see how his speed, CF range, and sneaky pop could add up to a future impact leadoff type not unlike Gardner, Eaton, or Roberts, but it’s more molding clay than final form at this point. That’s not unusual for any high school prospect, but there are elements of Wilson’s game that really can go either way in pro ball. If he learns how to embrace his strengths as a player and worry less about being something he’s not, he’ll wind up a really good one. All of this may sound very obvious, but there it is. If nothing else, he’s landed in the right place to learn and grow. Now it’s up to him and the baseball deities.
OF Michael Foster was a pretty nifty pick in the 16th round. He’s made steady progress as a hitter, flashes big league speed and pop, and has the arm and athleticism that you’d expect out of a former two-way prospect capable of hitting the low-90s off the mound. I’m not sure if there’s enough bat to make it as a corner outfielder — I would have pushed him at second or on the mound, but there’s a reason nobody pays me big bucks to do this — so we’ll see how far he goes from here. I like him more than OF Daniel Spingola, the above-average running, defending, and throwing former Georgia Tech center fielder who I’m not sure has enough pop to keep pro pitching honest.
The Cubs couldn’t agree to terms with C Domenic DeRenzo (off to Oklahoma), but did get a deal done with one of my FAVORITE catchers in all of amateur baseball, Houston C Ian Rice (230). Much has been written about Rice here already, so the short version will have to suffice for now: he’s really good. Expectations will be low based on his draft position (29th round, 863rd overall pick), but Rice’s scouting profile reminds me quite a bit of Andrew Knapp’s from a few years ago. Rice doesn’t step up the plate without a plan and has the raw power to make pitchers pay when said plan results in a 2-0 or 3-1 count. He’ll never be an upper-echelon defensive player, but the physical ability and want-to should make him average (or slightly below-average) with continued practice. There’s enough to wonder about his in-game power — hope it’s not the case, but he might be the poster boy for big raw maybe not meaning actual extra base production — and his defense being slower to progress than a pro team can afford to wait to push his most likely outcome from “regular with above-average upside” (as I once thought) to “up-and-down third catcher,” but I remain bullish on the player I claimed to be “sky high” on (how corny was that?) before the college season began.
3B Matt Rose (127) is up there with Rice as favorite pick outside of the top ten rounds, not only with Chicago but perhaps even across the entire league. He’s not a perfect player, but I hope he gets a fair chance to show off his defensive abilities at third (so far, not the case) and big raw power (getting it done) in pro ball. The fact that he’s young for his class is just the cherry on top for me. How real his 2015 collegiate gains in approach are remains to be seen, but getting a guy this talented this late is worth taking the time to find out. As a pre-draft favorite it should come as no surprise that plenty was written about him before, so here we go…
In no way is this a direct comp by any stretch, but something about Rose’s profile reminds me former Washington star and current weirdly underrated Diamondbacks third baseman Jake Lamb. I liked Lamb a lot in his draft year (“above-average big league starter upside”) and I don’t see how anybody can objectively look at Rose and come up with too different a conclusion about his future (above-average big league starter upside). The tools are big league quality: above-average to plus raw power, really promising defensive gifts, and enough arm strength to throw 90-94 MPH fastballs off the mound. What I might like most about Rose is the persistent claim that from those who have seen him closest that he’ll be a really good big league hitter. I can’t tell you how often I heard how his approach at the plate is beyond his years. Fair and balanced to the scouting reports and statistics to the every end, I’d then look at his BB/K numbers over the years (13/37 last year, for example) and wonder what they were seeing that I never did (literally never did, by the way: I’m no scout so it might not matter, but, full disclosure, I have not yet seen Rose play at Georgia State). Well, though it may be early, Rose’s .306/.420/.722 line through 72 AB (13 BB/11 K) is a pretty nice start for those that have been on Rose since the start. He was always one of those players that seemed like he’d be better professionally – in part because he’d be away from the mound – than he looked in college, which ties us back to something frequently said about Lamb back in 2012. I’ve underrated Rose too long in the past, but no more.
(I have to point out that there are some really smart people who prefer Rose as a pitcher. That just makes him an even cooler prospect in my book. I get the appeal, too: he’s 90-94 with his fastball, shows two offspeed pitches with promise already, and has premium size (6-4, 200) and athleticism. Stretching him out as a starting pitcher in the pros would be really tempting to me if I wasn’t so confident that he’d hit (and hit with power) at third base.)
3B Blake Headley isn’t on Rose’s level for me, but he can swing it a little bit and is a steady defender at both third and first. I wish I had more to say about him, but I don’t. Good luck in pro ball, Blake.
There are a lot of places to find reliable information on draft signings. Some are good, others less so. You’d think that MLB.com, only the website owned and operated by the actual league that these players are accepting contracts with, would be 100% accurate with their reporting, but that’s apparently not the case. 2B PJ Higgins has gotten over 50 professional plate appearances as of this writing. He is still listed as “unsigned” on MLB.com. Maybe somebody should double-check that stuff. As for the player in question, I like Higgins as a versatile chess piece (he’s played 2B, 3B, and SS already as a pro and he could also get work in the OF or even as a catcher before long) with a patient approach as a hitter and quick hands at the plate. SS Angelo Amendolare is another interesting plug-and-play minor league infielder who has seen time at second, third, and the outfield already.
I don’t typically throw stats at you in these draft reviews — I figure they are easily searchable on the site, so why clutter up another page with them — but look at what SS Vimael Machin (297) did at Virginia Commonwealth over his four years there (stats are park/schedule adjusted when applicable)…
2012: .309/.364/.408 – 21 BB/29 K – 1/3 SB – 223 AB
2013: .287/.389/.419 – 22 BB/31 K – 2/3 SB – 167 AB
2014: .307/.421/.417 – 30 BB/21 K – 2/2 SB – 199 AB
2015: .336/.393/.444 – 24 BB/24 K – 6/13 SB – 232 AB
It’s hard to be more consistent through the years than that. With Machin you’re getting a reliable defender with a playable bat that could work his way into quality utility infielder status before long. I’m a fan. There’s been some buzz that he’ll be tried behind the plate in instructional league this fall, so stay tuned for that. The likelihood of SS Sutton Whiting reaching a similar upside isn’t quite as high, but he’s a nice get in the 24th round as a senior sign who can run, throw, and play an effective “little man” offensive game. There’s always been too much swing-and-miss in his game for me, but I can understand the appeal. Here’s some relevant pre-draft stuff on him…
I’ve got nothing but love for SR 2B/SS Sutton Whiting, one of college ball’s foremost examples of how good things can happen if you keep grinding and play within yourself. Whiting can run, throw (though his arm is more accurate than strong), and spoil pitchers’ pitches. Ignore what you’re about to read about Zach Lucas (I really should plan these things better and stop skipping around…) because Whiting is the far better example of a senior sign that you can draft and develop with a clearly designed path to get him to (at least) the upper-minors. He’s a ready-made potential utility player right out of the box with almost all of the standard pluses (speed, patience, glove, arm accuracy) and minuses (power, requisite strikeouts that come with working deep counts, raw arm strength) that you’d expect. I can dig it.
Between Higgins, Machin, and Sutton, the Cubs have positioned themselves well to at least get one cheap, homegrown big league backup out of their double-digit round picks. Not bad.
I feel a bit of a kindred bond between myself and the Cubs — not because I’m also a lovable loser — since we both seem to love hitting and ignore pitching. The Cubs obviously don’t exactly ignore pitching — pretty sure that would be against the rules — but I think their emphasis on collecting position player prospects, less volatile than their pitching counterparts, is clear. That said, of the many pitchers drafted by the Cubs this year, the guy who would excite me most if I was a fan would be LHP Kyle Twomey (137). Here’s the pre-draft dirt…
On the other end of the spectrum (kind of) is USC JR LHP Kyle Twomey. Twomey has long been a favorite thanks to a fastball/changeup combination (just two pitches, gasp!) good enough to get big league swings and misses within the year. His fastball doesn’t have premium velocity (87-92, 94 peak), but the heaps of movement he gets on it make it a consistent above-average to plus offering. His change does a lot of the same things from the same arm speed, making the 78-82 MPH pitch above-average with plus upside. Those two pitches and room to grow on a 6-3, 170 pound frame make him a very appealing prospect. There are some issues that will need ironing out at the pro level – deciding on whether to further refine his cutter/slider hybrid or tightening up his soft curve, plus improving his overall control and offspeed command – but the pieces are there for him to make it as a big league starting pitcher.
Despite his disappointing draft season (strikeouts down, walks up), I’m still on board with Twomey as a future potential starter. It’s a longer shot now, I’ll admit, but arm talent is arm talent. The dip in velocity (85-90) is noteworthy; if it’s due to injury or a correctable mechanical flaw, then Twomey in the 13th round represents crazy value. If it’s the physical manifestation of his stalled prospect status (i.e., he peaked younger than most and will never fill out his lanky frame or improve his command or sharpen his breaking stuff), then that’s not quite as fun, though even in the upper-80s there’s enough there to give him a shot at making it as a lefty reliever with some funk.
The book on LHP Bryan Hudson (290) is pretty straightforward: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; good 77-82 CB; underdeveloped CU. That’s all well and good for a generic young righthander, but it becomes something much more for a 6-8, 220 pound athletic lefthander. Fellow LHP Ryan Kellogg (234) has a slightly more confusing profile as another big (6-5, 220) lefty with similar fastball velocity (85-90 FB, 92-93 peak) and more advanced offspeed stuff (CB, SL, and CU all could be average pitches) who hasn’t missed the kind of bats at the amateur level that one might expect. That’s the kind of arm that should be carving up jumpy teenage underclassmen. Still, Kellogg does enough well including impeccable control on those four aforementioned average pitches that he feels like a safe bet to log some back of the rotation innings as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. A comparison that didn’t occur to me during his college days that just hit me now: Matt Imhof.
RHP David Berg (496) and RHP Preston Morrison going to the same team is a beautiful thing. The two are both all-time greats as collegiate players who excelled through unconventional means. Berg did it with a low-80s heater with plenty of sink; in fact, his fastball was just one of three pitches (mid-70s slider, changeup) with consistent above-average or better downward movement. That movement could make him a potential righthanded specialist that is called upon to roll some of his bowling balls and get a ground ball out or two when needed. I called Morrison “college baseball’s weirdest pitcher” a few months ago, and the season he had only makes him weirder in my mind. The stuff ticked up across the board (from mid-80s to upper-80s with his fastball) and his changeup improved enough to use it more frequently with confidence. He still has the two weird breaking balls — I have it as a 72-74 CB and a 69-74 SL — so technically there’s enough in his repertoire to remain a starter as a professional. His path to the big leagues, however, has been and will always be through the bullpen. It’s not impossible to imagine a future where Berg is a righty specialist and Morrison is the long man in a Chicago pen somewhere down the line.
The Cubs went with back-to-back Hoosiers in rounds 14 and 15. RHP Jake Kelzer will go back to Bloomington to try to jump his draft stock ten rounds or so over the next ten months, but he’ll do it without old pal RHP Scott Effross (383). The first thing that jumps out about Effross’s time in Indiana is the slow and steady improvement made over the years: 5.03 K/9 to 6.55 K/9 to 7.55 K/9, all while keeping his walks down (just 1.45 BB/9 in 2015) and runs off the board. Despite being used as a reliever for most of his adult life, I think he’s got the three pitches (87-92 fastball with sink that’s been up to 94; average or better upper-70s breaking ball; really impressive change) and command to give starting a shot. There’s some fifth starter upside here if it works with middle relief probably a more realistic fallback option.
This was written about LHP Tyler Peitzmeier earlier in the year: “Cal State Fullerton SR LHP Tyler Peitzmeier is one of the country’s best relievers with the stuff (87-90 FB, plus CU) and deception to keep missing bats as a pro.” That’s not a thrilling profile, but it’s enough for a ninth round pick. The Cubs stayed in California (Cal Poly in this case) to grab RHP Casey Bloomquist, a sinker/slider pinpoint command guy who I think fits best in the bullpen long-term. I like RHP Kyle Miller quite a bit from a scouting standpoint. He’s never had the big year you’d like to see (6.99 K/9 in his best year), but he can run the fastball up to the mid-90s and he’s a much better athlete than most pitchers out there. RHP Jared Cheek is more of your standard 88-92 (93 peak) fastball and slider reliever. I only know about RHP Craig Brooks what you could also find through a quick Google search. If you happen to do that, you’ll see he sounds pretty promising as a future reliever. Nice mid-90s fastball, good athlete, crazy results as an amateur…it’s a fun lottery ticket and a real bargain at just $5,000.
LHP John Williamson was off my radar as a pitcher, so I full support giving his signing scout a nice raise for getting him on board. I had him as an outfielder only in my notes (plus speed, patient hitter, needs reps), so hearing him go off as a lefthanded pitcher was a pleasant surprise. We know he’s got a fresh arm and plenty of athleticism, so why not? RHP MT Minacci is another good deep dive find. Like Williamson he’s a relatively fresh arm, good athlete, and a hard thrower (low-90s FB in the case of Minacci). If things would have worked out for him at either Florida State or Chipola along the way, there’s no way he would have lasted to the 33rd round like this.
I don’t typically ding teams for guys that don’t sign and I’ll stick to that here, but I think 2B/OF Alonzo Jones is going to be a STAR at Vanderbilt and a first round pick in three years. Nobody was going to sign him at a certain point, so it’s not a knock on the Cubs for not getting a deal done. Even without Jones (or DeRenzo or Kelzer or John Cresto or Jared Padgett or John Kilichowski), I like what the Cubs did this year. Happ alone makes this a good draft. Dewees could make it a very good one. One or more of Rose, Twomey, Wilson, Rice, Kellogg, or Hudson doing things in the big leagues would make it great.
Top 500 Prospects drafted by Chicago per me…
9 – Ian Happ
15 – Donnie Dewees
127 – Matt Rose
137 – Kyle Twomey
189 – DJ Wilson
230 – Ian Rice
234 – Ryan Kellogg
290 – Bryan Hudson
297 – Vimael Machin
383 – Scott Effross
496 – David Berg
2015 MLB Draft Reviews – Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 MLB Draft Picks
“If you like [Cornelius] Randolph, you’ll like Hayes.” That’s how 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (49) was described to me in the days leading up to the draft. It was too late then to slip that head-to-head prospect comparison into any pre-draft post on the site, but there it is now. Despite some obvious issues (handedness for one), I can kind of see it. I prefer the bat of Randolph (ranked four spots ahead of Hayes pre-draft), but the defensive edge goes to Charlie’s son. Like his dad, a long, steady career without ever reaching the peaks of true stardom sounds about right as a prediction on his future. Here’s what I had on Hayes prior to the draft: quick bat; professional approach; average or better power upside; above-average to plus arm; strong; below-average speed, but improved; chance to be above-average defensively at 3B; arguably no carrying tool, but no glaring weaknesses either; 87-89 FB; R/R; 6-1, 210 pounds.
SS Kevin Newman (31), of all prospects, became a lightning rod player this past spring. Some loved him for his hit tool and dependable glove, others were concerned about his long-term defensive future, limited power ceiling, and how his age relative to his college peers (he turned 22 on August 4th) made his college production look more impressive taken out of context. Count me in as part of the latter group, unfortunately.
Newman’s feel for hitting is special, but, as a guy who will always believe the hit tool is king, it pains me to admit a hit tool alone is not enough to equate to future impact regular. Pro pitchers attack hitters with minimal power differently than amateurs. In no way should all hitters be expected to come into pro ball with 20+ HR/season ability, but the threat of extra base power is needed to get the pitches and favorable hitting counts that lead to good things. It’s considerably more difficult to hit .300 with minimal power at the highest level than it is in college and in the lower-minors. I’m not bold enough to unequivocally say that Newman can’t do it, but the odds are stacked against him. Of course, there have been successful infielders with similar offensive profiles that Newman could use as role models — Ben Revere, decidedly not an infielder but the first player to come to mind also qualifies (.291 career BA, .052 career ISO) — such as Placido Polanco (.297, .100), Marco Scutaro (.277, .111), Jose Altuve (.302, .100), Jeff Keppinger (.282, .102), and Ryan Theriot (.281, .069). So the odds may be stacked against him, but not in such a way that makes the Pirates silly for using a first round pick on him.
Defensively, I’ve flip-flopped on my view of Newman since last April. Back then I thought he was a shortstop with little doubt. Though his superior instincts, first step quickness, and quick release all give him a shot to stick at the six-spot, his lackluster arm strength and limited range make him a better long-term fit at second base. Part of my thought process changing had to do with seeing more of him on the field (with two caveats: I’m a fan, not a scout, and it was video, not live), part of it had to do with hearing from trusted contacts who did see him up close a lot more than I could have hoped to, and part of it was my own evolving view of how important arm strength is for a shortstop. We’ve become so accustomed to thinking that third base is the infield position where the biggest arm is needed, but after focusing more closely on some of the throws that big league shortstops are asked to make deep into the hole as their momentum carries them away from their target, I’d argue that shortstop is where ideally your strongest arm would go. That’s not Newman, and I think that the rest of the industry will realize that sooner rather than later.
A “bigger Johnny Giovotella” was one of the names quoted at me when asking around about Newman during the season. I put him on the Mark Loretta/Adam Kennedy continuum pre-draft and also mentioned that somebody smart I know threw out a Joe Panik comp. Let’s say Giovotella/Theriot is his floor and Panik/Polanco is his ceiling. That’s still an impressive range of outcomes — when your realistic floor is a big league player, as I honestly believe is the case for Newman barring injury, that’s something — and well worth a late-first round pick. The Pirates nabbed him a little earlier than that (pick 19), but it’s a minor quibble in the grand scheme of draft prospect valuation. I like Pittsburgh. I like Newman. I hope he ends up with a career a lot closer to what some other outlets have predicted (he’s a STAR!!!) than what I think. I just wouldn’t bet my non-existent job on it, that’s all.
I’ve listed all these players at the positions announced by the team on draft day, but that’s a tad troublesome when it comes to certain players. See my previous take on Newman as one data point here, though SS Kevin Kramer (96) is probably an even better example. Since being announced as a shortstop on draft day, Kramer has played 2B almost exclusively (34 of 36 games) as a professional so far. It’s not a big deal either way since his most likely successful path to the big leagues will be that of a utility infielder, but there you go. Kramer is the kind of player who grows on you the more you watch him. He’s a really good athlete with enough physical tools (average arm, average speed, average strength) to see a big league future ahead. His hit tool will be the separator for him as it’s above-average (think .270ish) with enough pop and patience to be around a league average bat at the kind of up-the-middle defensive spots he’ll play. I think the gap between him and Newman is closer than the majority think, though that probably says more about how I view Newman than how I see Kramer’s career turning out.
I thought I was going to look relatively low with my ranking of SS Logan Ratledge (155), but him falling as late as he did (397) suggests otherwise. If you like him, then the old Devon Travis comp on him has to be right up your alley. If not, then the best you could hope for is a utility infielder with range stretched a bit more than ideal at shortstop. Despite the higher personal ranking than his draft position, I’d actually line up closer to those who question his pro future. He’s a nice utility prospect to be sure, but it’s hard to get past his senior season breakout looking more like a mirage (that extra year of physical and emotional maturation means a ton) than his new normal. It’s nice value this late in the draft either way. A fourth college shortstop, draft-eligible sophomore Eli White, understandably couldn’t agree to terms as a 37th round pick and will head back to Clemson to try again this year. I’d be surprised if his stock didn’t jump thirty or so rounds before next June rolls around.
C John Bormann is a defense-first catcher. Well, more accurately he’s defense first, second, and third through tenth. He’s not a total zero with the stick, but it’ll be his glove that keeps him employed for years to come. As much as I value catcher defense I do like my catchers to hit a little as well, so I’m not quite as bullish on his pro outlook as others might be. He’s still a solid organizational player even if he doesn’t pan out as a big leaguer. My lazy (since it’s from the system I follow closest as a fan) best case comparison for him would be something like Tuffy Gosewich or Logan Moore.
1B Zach George (166) is a fifth-year senior coming off two torn ACLs who is potentially stuck at first base defensively without the type of power typically associated with the position. Doesn’t sound so hot on paper, does it? Even with all those negative marks on his ledger, I can’t help but love the guy. I mean, I did rank him almost one thousand spots ahead of where he actually got selected (1057) on draft day. It’s obviously a good thing I wasn’t in a draft room to convince a team to overdraft him thirty rounds, but my appreciation for his ability is grounded (I think) in logic. George is a switch-hitter with a fantastic eye (55 BB/28 K and a .548 OBP his senior year) and the ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. He’s been an underrated glove at third in the past — though that’s based on what could be dated information, I admit — and his story of perseverance is one that not only speaks to his own willingness to stop at nothing to achieve his dreams in pro ball, but also serves as a tale of inspiration to pro teammates who sometimes need a friendly reminder to put how important the game is in perspective.
3B Mitchell Tolman (258) has an interesting offensive profile as an average pop/average speed third base prospect who might have quite enough bat to work as a regular in the long run. What’s interesting about that profile to me — you surely were wondering why average pop/speed is interesting when it’s close to the opposite of that in reality — is how well it fits into a potential utility role down the line. I don’t see why an average runner with a strong arm couldn’t make it as a four-corners utility guy eventually, but what do I know? It should also be noted that some think Tolman could hold his own at second with increased time at that position. If you’re picking up on some Matt Carpenter vibes here, you’re not wrong. That’s obviously a 95% percentile outcome, but you never know, right?
I saw OF Casey Hughston (306) as more of a fringe top ten round pick before the draft, but Pittsburgh felt comfortable gambling on his big offensive tools (power, athleticism, bat skills) helping him overcome his questionable offensive approach. We’ll see. I actually think OF Logan Hill (255) compares favorably to Hughston from a skills standpoint with a clear edge in plate discipline and an arguable edge in raw power. I liked (and still like, obviously) OF Ty Moore (113) best of all. Originally written in April, this still fits: “[Moore] is living proof that you can have average tools across the board so long as the best of said tools is the bat, whether it’s straight hit or power. Moore has as good a hit tool as you’ll find in this year’s class. The rest of his tools may be more or less average, but that hit tool will keep him getting paid for years to come. It’s a bit of a tricky profile in an outfield corner, but those with confidence in him as a hitter will give him a long look.” I’m buying. Meanwhile, Ryan Nagle, the fourth college outfielder selected by the Pirates, is more interesting than your usual 27th round pick. He’s a lefty hitter with decent power, speed, and some plate discipline coming off a nice junior season (.329/.395/.442 with 22 BB/25 K and 11/15 SB).
Getting a prospect with the kind of raw ability (90-96 FB, breaking ball with average or better promise) as RHP Jacob Taylor (317) in the fourth round is a good thing even when said prospect has serious control questions and no real present third pitch. At worst you’re getting a late-inning reliever starter kit; at best, assuming damn near everything goes right, he’s talented enough to be an above-average rotation staple for a long time. LHP Brandon Waddell (254) has managed to turn an upper-80s fastball (91 peak) and intriguing offspeed stuff (plus 75-77 CB, interesting low-80s cut-SL, and a 79-82 CU that looked better with every outing this spring) into something resembling a future back-end of the rotation big league starting pitcher. He was a horse in the Virginia rotation — 88.2 IP, 114 IP, and 75 IP in his three years there — who was good for around a strikeout per inning at his best. Taking a lefty from Virginia isn’t a bad strategy in general, so I’m into this pick. RHP JT Brubaker is a local-ish college product (RIP Akron baseball) who has been up to 94 in the past with a frame that suggests good things to come. I root for all players to succeed because I’m a great guy like that, but it would be extra nice to see Brubaker and the rest of his former teammates at Akron do well in pro ball considering the rotten way it ended there. RHP Seth McGarry has the look and feel of a future quality big league middle reliever thanks to a big fastball (92-95, 97 peak), plus breaking ball, and all the athleticism and deception you’d want.
RHP Bret Helton’s draft season results (4.72 BB/9 and 5.75 ERA in 61 IP) don’t exactly scream ninth round value pick, but he’s an athlete who has hit 94 in the past (88-92 mostly) with an above-average hard cutter and that’s worth taking a chance on here. His control is the biggest worry for me, but that seems to be a trend in many of the players selected by Pittsburgh. Maybe that’s a reflection of the confidence they have in their developmental staff to teach pitchers how to throw strikes. It is easier to improve a guy’s control than it is to magically find a way to add miles to his fastball or depth to his breaking stuff, after all. RHP Nick Hibbing doesn’t have any issues with control (0.44 BB/9 in 41 IP in his senior year), so the focus with him will be getting the most (he tops out at 93) out of his 6-6, 200 pound frame. RHP Tanner Anderson reminds me some of Helton as a prospect. The stuff is there (88-92 FB, 94 peak with usable CB and CU), but he never missed bats in the Ivy League so I’m incredulous he’ll suddenly start doing so against professional hitters. He never stood out to me in the few times I saw him over the years, but, let’s be honest, that really shouldn’t be held against the guy too much.
For a 36th round pick, RHP James Marvel has a ton written about him on the site already. Search around for a more nuanced take, but the short version is Captain Marvel could prove to be a major steal if healthy. Fellow ACC pitcher and 30-something rounder (33rd, if details matter to you) LHP Sean Keselica is another really impressive find at the end of the draft. Keselica has always had a good arm (87-92 FB, average or better mid-70s breaking ball), and the idea that his athleticism and the freedom from no longer being a two-way player (.313/.394/.374 with 13 BB/15 K in his senior season) will help continue to see the stuff tick up as a pro is not without merit. The Pirates kept hitting with the late picks (in my view) with the back-to-back closing selections of RHP Tate Scioneaux (round 39) and LHP Daniel Zamora (round 40). Scioneaux sits 87-93 with his heat while using an average change as an out-pitch while Zamora’s quick scouting notes (86-90 FB, average-ish breaking ball, emerging changeup) may remind you of the more famous lefty taken over 1,000 picks beforehand. To take that to the crazy conclusion, I actually had one contact tell me that he felt there was really little to no difference between the long-term pro outlooks of Brandon Waddell and Daniel Zamora; in fairness, he considered them both to be up-and-down relievers at best, but still. It’s worth noting that both Scioneaux and Zamora were big-time college producers (both in terms of traditional stats and the newer, better stuff) while at Southeastern Louisiana and Stony Brook respectively.
I do my best to cover as much amateur baseball across the country as possible. Somehow pro teams manage to do a much better job than a guy on the internet with a staff of one. Weird, right? The Pirates drafted pitchers from Tiffin, South Mountain CC, Columbia State CC, Bellevue, and Mercer County CC. I know I should do a better job trying to cover non-D1 college ball, but there are only so many hours in the day. Anyway, that’s all just a long way of saying I don’t have a lot of information on many of the pitchers selected by Pittsburgh this year. I could do some quick Googling and pretend like I’m more of an expert than I am, but that ain’t me. So here’s what I’ve got.
RHP Logan Sendelbach sounds good so far. The early returns on RHP Chris Plitt look interesting, especially the whole no walks in 28.2 innings pitched thing. RHP Scooter Hightower has performed well so far. RHP Stephan Meyer‘s had success in a small sample. LHP Ike Schlabach is a 6-5, 185 pound lefty, so that’s cool. I shouldn’t have whiffed so badly on RHP Nicholas Economos pre-draft considering he played his home games around 45 minutes from me, but it happens. RHP Nathan Trevillian has a cool last name AND I actually had pre-draft info on him (90 MPH fastball, 6-2, 160 pound frame). RHP Shane Kemp isn’t the ferocious dunker who played for the Sonics in the mid-90s. Same but better joke could apply to RHP Mike Wallace, but I’ll leave it to you to fill in the blanks there.
Top 500 Prospects drafted by Pittsburgh per me…
31 – Kevin Newman
49 – Ke’Bryan Hayes
96 – Kevin Kramer
113 – Ty Moore
155 – Logan Ratledge
166 – Zach George
254 – Brandon Waddell
255 – Logan Hill
258 – Mitchell Tolman
306 – Casey Hughston
317 – Jacob Taylor
2015 MLB Draft Reviews – Cleveland Indians
Cleveland Indians 2015 MLB Draft Picks
Cleveland drafts in the middle of the first round pretty closely to how I’d draft in the horrifying alternate reality where an internet dude like me got that kind of power: lots of college players with long track records of success (with an emphasis on strong peripherals), a willingness to take calculated risks when the board allows for it, and tons of HS players with signability questions to help back up those risks. Let’s get to Mr. Calculated Risk himself…
LHP Brady Aiken (34) is kind of a big deal. I’m guessing if you’re here, you know his story. If 100% healthy, he would have easily been the top pitcher in this class and a top five overall prospect. Hypotheticals like this make my head hurt, but I think I would have had him as the top prospect for a second straight season. A mid-market club like Cleveland taking the gamble on Aiken tells us something about how teams view the draft. When everybody had teams like the Dodgers or the Yankees being the most likely franchises to take the Aiken risk, it was Cleveland of all teams to put all their mid-first round (17) chips in on a player with arguably the most upside in his entire class. Just another reminder that there’s no more frustrating place to be than in the middle. When you’re terrible, the sport does what it can to help you out., most notably through giving up top picks in the draft and the corresponding shot at the potential superstar players picked in the top half-dozen or so selections. When you’re great, you’re great. Simple as that. It’s nice that you have free agency (international and domestic) as an option to flex those financial muscles. When you’re in the middle, however, the best way to get the kind of game-changing talent you need is by taking mighty hacks and swinging for home runs when you get your shot. Aiken is Cleveland’s shot. So what are they getting with him?
My optimistic forecast for the pre-injury version of Aiken last season was a more physical Matt Moore. Ironically enough, that comparison was made just a few weeks after Moore went under the knife for his own Tommy John surgery. Aiken’s arm woes were revealed a couple of months later. It’s obviously very early in Moore’s return, but initial returns are a reminder that nothing is guaranteed when attempting a comeback from elbow surgery. Healthy, Aiken is an ace. I hope he’s healthy. Cleveland hopes he’s healthy.
I really, really like RHP Triston McKenzie (20), a mid-first round talent who fell to the Indians second pick at 42. Reaching out to get names on him after the draft produced some really impressive names: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, and Vincent Velasquez. Each name was mentioned in the context of the draft version and not the finished product, but elements of each of those up-and-coming stars’s respective games (extension, smarts, ability to hold velocity, frame) can be found in McKenzie. In terms of a more contemporary comparison — because deGrom, Syndergaard, Wacha, and Velasquez are all soooo old — I’ve been reminded some of Grayson Long, third round pick of the Angels. Long managed to fill out physically, but his fastball velocity never made the expected jump along the way. Even if McKenzie follows that same path, he can still be an effective big league starter at his current velocity — presently 86-92, 93 peak — because of plus fastball movement and above-average offspeed stuff (the mid-70s curve is ahead now, but his 82-85 changeup could be plus in time). If he fills out and sees his fastball jump up like some of those names listed above…the sky’s the limit. If Aiken doesn’t make a full return to health, McKenzie has the raw talent, work ethic, and baseball IQ to make up for it.
LHP Juan Hillman (92) brings polish, pitchability, and deception not typically seen from high school pitching prospects. He has the requisite three pitches that go a long way towards making it as a rotation mainstay: 87-93 FB (95 peak), mid-70s CB with upside, and an easy above-average upper-70s CU that he leans on heavily. Too often he was seen on the lower end of that velocity spectrum (87-90) this spring with offspeed stuff not nearly as sharp as those who first fell for him the previous summer came to expect. Hillman is a nice example of how we really don’t know anything about how teams value certain players. On his best day, Hillman is a first rounder with mid-rotation upside or better. On his, shall we say, not best day, he’s more of a third to seventh round type with a back-end rotation or middle relief future. Teams that thought of him as a mid-round player were probably relieved to see Cleveland “reach” on him; obviously, the Indians front office is thrilled with getting him when they did. Consensus and the draft just don’t get along. RHP Jonas Wyatt (299) has a similar upside to the good Hillman if it all works. He’s pretty well physically maxed out for a teenager, but I like his fastball (88-94, 96 peak) and changeup (average low- to mid-80s with above-average upside).
If you want an early follow list for 2018 college pitching, look no further to the list of unsigned arms on Cleveland’s draft board. Check out these names…
RHP Chandler Newman (Georgia Southern)
RHP Daniel Sprinkle (Auburn)
RHP Austin Rubick (Arizona)
RHP Chandler Day (Vanderbilt)
RHP Andrew Cabezas (Miami)
RHP Braden Webb (South Carolina)
RHP Hunter Parsons (Maryland)
RHP Tristin English (Georgia Tech)
Day (39) and English (53) both are likely future first round picks in three years. Parsons (473) also made my top 500. And, for good measure, there are two unsigned college juniors going back for one more season…
RHP Lucas Humpal (Texas State)
LHP Jacob Hill (San Diego)
The best college arm taken and signed by Cleveland this year is attached to the body of RHP Justin Garza (156). The reasons for his drop to the eighth round are valid (5-11, 165 pound frame; TJ surgery about a month before the draft), but he’s exactly the kind of undersized righthander that deserves the chance to keep starting until he proves he can’t. Garza is a crazy athletic pitcher with three potential above-average pitches (90-94 FB, 96 peak; above-average to plus 80-86 cut-SL; average yet inconsistent 76-82 CU that flashes better) who held up well as a starter at Fullerton. In fact, he was remarkably consistent in that role: 7.67 K/9 and 1.33 BB/9 (2013), 7.40 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 (2014), 7.34 K/9 and 1.94 BB/9 (2015) with ERAs/FIPs between 3.05 and 3.54 each year. The history of arm troubles — before the elbow, it was a sore shoulder — could make him remaining a starter a non-starter, but that’s hardly a deal-breaker. If he can stay healthy as a starter, I can see Garza as a mid-rotation arm; if not, he’s got the goods to pitch big innings late in games out of the pen. Not a bad gamble with pick 244.
The selection of RHP Matt Esparza is one of my favorite moves by the Tribe this year. He doesn’t overwhelm with his fastball (88-92, 93 peak), but his offspeed stuff is excellent (plus mid-80s splitter/slider hybrid, 76-80 CB with above-average promise), he has experience as a starter (7.36 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 in 98 IP at UC Irvine), and he’s a fine athlete. It’s easy to imagine his stuff playing up further in a bullpen role — so far, so good as a professional — which is about all you could ask for in a fourteenth round pick. RHP Brock Hartson (428) is another favorite thanks to an excellent 82-85 changeup. His ability to throw three pitches for strikes makes up for his underwhelming college strikeout numbers some. A lesser version of former fifth round pick Nick Tropeano feels like a fair hope for Hartson’s pro future. RHP Devon Stewart (461) has stuff (87-94 FB, 96 peak; average or better low-80s SL; usable low-80s CU) that outstripped his college career numbers. A full-time move to the bullpen could give him a shot to keep moving up. RHP Chad Smith isn’t quite at his level athletically, but there’s some Justin Garza (undersized, big fastball, two useful offspeed pitches) in his scouting profile. LHP Billy Strode missed a lot of bats in his two years at Florida State (9.19 K/9 in 2014, 12.40 K/9 in 2015) and could have a shot as a lefty specialist if he can improve his control. I was pleasantly surprised to see him go as high as he did as a tenth round money-saving senior-sign. LHP Ryan Perez is more famous for his switch-pitching than known as a viable professional prospect, but his stuff from the left side (90-94 FB, above-average to plus 77-81 CB) could also make him a matchup guy with increased reps.
Cleveland didn’t sign a HS position player, but the college guys they managed to bring aboard are plenty intriguing on their own. C Daniel Salters (148) was a pre-draft FAVORITE who feels like a major steal as a thirteenth round pick. Arm strength, raw power, athleticism, and plate discipline add up to a dangerous hitter with a better shot than people think to stick behind the dish. I’ll admit that some patience might be required on the defensive side, but the potential pay day makes it worth waiting on. Interestingly enough, unsigned 33rd round pick C Garret Wolforth (179) will head to Dallas Baptist as Salters’s successor. Circle of life, I suppose.
1B Anthony Miller (423) hit .443/.556/.974 at Johnson County CC this past spring. He’s currently hitting .202/.288/.253 (give a take or two from when I wrote this to when I’ll post this) for the AZL Indians. Pro ball is hard. Power and a track record — junior college or not — like his are hard to come by, especially once you get down past pick 500. Nabbing Miller at pick 544 feels like a win no matter the outcome.
2B Mark Mathias (77) can flat swing the bat. It’s a risky profile as any bat-first second base only prospect tends to be (Tony Renda sticks out as similarly talented college guy I probably overrated), but snagging a potential regular at a key defensive position in the third round seems about right. I mentioned Mark Loretta as a potential comp pre-draft, so let’s stick with that for now. I thought 2B Sam Haggerty could be a tricky sign as a junior with three solid or better years with the bat under his belt as a college junior, so consider the steady fielding, fleet of foot infielder a potential utility infield sleeper. The Indians took four quality shortstops (signing two) that all ranked in my top 500 overall prospects. SS Tyler Krieger, the highest ranked (58) and highest selected (124) of the quartet, hasn’t yet suited up as a pro due to injury, so it’s unclear how the Indians development staff yet view him defensively. Shoulder surgery sapped some his formerly above-average arm strength, so second base seems like his most likely pro outcome. That puts him in direct competition with Mathias in a battle to man second in beautiful — not being sarcastic here, it’s an underrated town! — Cleveland. The two have actually been really similar hitters from a college production standpoint, so the edge to Krieger is more about speed, athleticism, and the glove. I still think both are future big leaguers. SS Luke Wakamatsu is an athlete who can run, throw, and field his position with the bonus bloodlines that teams love. Unsigned shortstops Nick Madrigal (102) and AJ Graffanino (239) head to the Pac-12 to square off at Oregon State and Washington respectively.
3B Garrett Benge (276) lived up to his reputation as a tough sign by announcing shortly after the draft his intention to honor his commitment to Oklahoma State. He should start right away to the right of returning senior Donnie Walton as part of one of the country’s best (on paper) left sides of the infield.
Between Salters, Miller, Mathias, and Krieger, the Indians did really well to interject some high probability big league players into the mix. I wish for their sake that they had added Belge, but now there’s one more interesting 2017 draft prospect to follow. The Indians then took a similar approach with the outfield prospects brought on board starting with Ka’ai Tom (313). Tom has played left field so far, but the pre-draft speculation that he could get a serious look at second base hasn’t died down as some have hinted that the Indians could give it a shot starting in the instructional league this fall. Such a switch would create an almost comical backlog of college second basemen to come out of this draft, but would fit his offensive profile better. Tom’s an average speed/average pop offensive player with the kind of feel for the game and makeup to play above his tools.
By my rankings both Tom and OF Nathan Lukes (478) were technically overdrafts, but you can see the logic what Cleveland was thinking in liking each guy. Like Tom, Lukes is more of an average all-around offensive player with his most appealing trait being his plate discipline and aesthetically pleasing well-roundedness. Same goes for OF Connor Marabell, the Jacksonville product with “good approach” as the first line on his pre-draft blurb. The safety of those three makes up some for the boom/bust potential of OF Todd Isaacs (316). Isaacs is a true burner with all that you’d want in a future above-average or better glove in center field, but the bat is going to take some time. I had Issacs all the way up as the sixth best high school outfielder in last year’s class. His up-and-down year at Palm Beach State (up: lots of contact and speed; down: approach and pop) knocked down his stock enough for the Indians to wait him out until the nineteenth round this year. It’s a pick that could pay off in a major way just as easily as it’ll wind up forgotten within two years. Analysis!
Top 500 Prospects drafted by Cleveland per me…
20 – Triston McKenzie
34 – Brady Aiken
58 – Tyler Krieger
77 – Mark Mathias
92 – Juan Hillman
148 – Daniel Salters
156 – Justin Garza
299 – Jonas Wyatt
313 – Ka’ai Tom
316 – Todd Isaacs
423 – Anthony Miller
428 – Brock Hartson
461 – Devon Stewart
478 – Nathan Lukes
2015 MLB Draft Reviews – Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 2015 Draft Picks
Bregman, Swanson, Rodgers, Tucker, Jay, Fulmer, Tate. Those were the only seven players in all of amateur baseball that I liked better than LHP Kolby Allard (8) prior to the draft. And that’s with there being some fear about his injury history; on straight talent, he could have been even higher. Stress fracture aside, Allard’s scouting profile is that of a top of the rotation starting pitcher you’d want toeing the rubber on Game One of any postseason series. There’s a chance for three consistent above-average pitches — 88-94 FB, 97 peak; 77-82 CB that flashes honest plus to plus-plus (!) and ranks on the short list of pitches of its kind that I’ve personally seen up close; advanced 82-85 CU that should keep getting better as he is forced to use it more often — and his athleticism, command (he fits one of my favorite prep pitching archetypes here: command/pitchability arm who sees an uptick in stuff but doesn’t lose what originally led to success), and deception are all close to ideal. Mechanically the comparisons to Cole Hamels seem pretty spot on to this layman, which is truly high praise considering Hamels’s mechanics are just about as perfectly balanced as you’d want to see in a lefthander. Stuff-wise, I’d put him closer to lefties known best for awesome curves like Erik Bedard and Jose Quintana. I’d take Quintana in the top ten within thinking twice, so landing him at fourteen is a major win. Allard should be a star and sooner rather than later.
RHP Mike Soroka (194) is a strapping (6-4, 200 pounds) young (he’ll turn 18 tomorrow) Canadian (loves maple syrup…probably) who Atlanta took a shot on before any of the supposed experts (and me) expected. For a strapping young Canadian he’s a lot more advanced than expected with three average or better pitches and sharp command of both his fastball and breaking ball. Overdrafts don’t exist in baseball; Atlanta did well here.
I was a huge fan of RHP Patrick Weigel (287) before the season. I went so far as to call him a “top two round talent” last December. Now I have no idea what to make of him. Back then I had him pegged as a prototypical long-limbed righthanded pitcher with a plus fastball (easy mid-90s) and potential wipeout slider who would get hurt because of his struggles with both command and control. Once the games started this spring, however, Weigel showed a big jump in control (a reasonable 3.53 BB/9 in 50 IP), a modest jump in command (especially with his heat), and, inexplicably, less missed bats (a good but not great 7.94 K/9) than his power stuff would suggest. So much for that high strikeout, high walk narrative, I guess. Weigel’s raw arm talent is still significant, so getting a “top two round talent” (I’m sticking with that, though my pre-draft ranking indicates the risk involved with the overall package) in the seventh is a win, underwhelming junior season or not.
LHP Alex Minter (289) went much earlier than I thought, but I give credit to Atlanta for honing in on his talent rather than worrying about his injury past (thoracic outlet syndrome) and present (TJ surgery early in the spring). Considering Minter’s abbreviated 2015 season output (12.43 K/9 and 3.43 BB/9 with a 0.43 ERA in 21 IP), the Braves did well to go up and get their guy before having to sweat out another team poaching the highly athletic, hard-throwing (90-96 in 2015) lefty. I had in my notes that he had shown difficulty maintaining velocity when stretched out in the past, but after checking in with a contact from a team that had Minter as a top 100 or so prospect (I probably should have had him higher than 289, right?), this concern seems to be outdated. Minter has gotten strong enough (and smart enough) as a pitcher to give starting an honest try upon his return to good health. With his fastball, nasty cut-slider, and slow curve (not to mention a raw yet very intriguing changeup), he’s got the stuff to do so. I would have been too much of a wimp to take him as high as the Braves did, but I get it.
It’s a shame that RHP Josh Graham (435) looks like a future reliever — and a fine one at that — because, lackluster college results or not, he’s an exciting hitter with crazy power. Of course, selfish power-loving interests aside, it’s not really a shame that Atlanta managed to snag a fresh arm capable of throwing consistent strikes with an upper-90s (96-97) fastball in the fourth round. RHP Matt Withrow (434, one spot ahead of Graham) can also run it up to 96 and could settle in as a solid middle reliever before long.
Atlanta drafted a lot of pitchers. Too many for my tiny brain to produce coherent sentences on each, in fact. So let’s run through them blurb style and sort it out afterwards…
- RHP Anthony Guardado – undersized athlete who is young for class; 93 peak fastball
- RHP Ryan Clark – UNC Greensboro junior; 88-94 FB (96 peak) that is tough to elevate with ample sink, enough offspeed to start (CB and CU stand out as average or better future pitches); has the command, athleticism, and track record to suggest lots of good things to come; profile reminds me of many of the guys traded this deadline (e.g., Pivetta, Eickhoff) in packages that returned star big leaguers; underrated on my end before the draft, really nice pick
- LHP Ryan Lawlor – Georgia junior – 86-91 FB with a curve with some upside; likely reliever, but could sneak in as a pitchability lefty who gets some starts
- RHP Taylor Lewis – Florida junior – 88-93 FB, 95 peak; above-average 82 SL; sidearm delivery; doesn’t mean a ton of bats, but looks like a quick-moving bullpen piece with built-in big game experience
- RHP Stephen Moore – Navy senior – older (23) command pitcher with an above-average CU and legit plus control
- RHP Grayson Jones – remember how I described what I thought Weigel was before the season – that’s Jones (except Jones isn’t as large); big stuff, little control, interesting raw talent that could be molded into something
- LHP Chase Johnson-Mullins – velocity has trended upward from HS (87-92, 94 peak) to now (96 peak), but still fluctuates from outing to outing as he leans on the pitch heavily; upper-70s curve has been his best secondary pitch since prep days, it’s a good one; attended Bourbon County HS, which I’m assuming is as magical a place as my imagination suggests; once described to me as a “lefty Broxton”
- LHP Trevor Belicek – Texas A&M-Corpus Christi senior; 87-91 FB that he commands well; average or better SL; outstanding final college season (11.35 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 87 IP)
- RHP Evan Phillips – UNC Wilmington junior; young for class; control has been his downfall, but stuff is legit (88-93 FB, 95 peak; average or better CB); another player I underrated out of a North Carolina college
- RHP Gilbert Suarez – up to 94 with his fastball, but don’t have anything beyond that; young for class; impressed they were able to sign him
- RHP Sean McLaughlin – Georgia junior; 89-93 FB, 95 peak; above-average 73-75 CB; CU has improved a lot, now an above-average pitch at 77-78; two-way athlete who was smart to give up center field for the mound; like Lawlor before him and Hellinger and Geekie to come, you have to figure Atlanta knew these local products better than anybody; definite sleeper potential here
- LHP Jaret Hellinger – good athlete who just kept getting better all spring; 85-91 FB, 93 peak; usable CB and CU already; plenty of upside left in his 6-3,170 pound frame
- RHP Dalton Geekie – great name, solid stuff, little wild…that’s all I’ve got and I won’t pretend to know more
- RHP Taylor Cockrell – Stetson transfer with an 88-92 FB coming off an impressive two-way season at the State College of Florida
- LHP Ben Libuda – tall and lanky (6-7, 185 pounds) and notable because the Braves left the south to find him all the way up in Worcester, Massachusetts
- RHP Matthew Custred – Texas Tech junior and teammate of Withrow; big guy (6-6, 240 pounds) who got on my radar for racking up the strikeouts this year (13.00 K/9) while also walking his fair share (7.00 BB/9)
On the whole you have to like what Atlanta did with adding pitching this draft. Many of the HS and junior college prospects they signed (Jones, Johnson-Mullins, Suarez, Hellinger) stand out as being real value picks that the Braves were able to land due to impressive leg work on signability and late-rising ability. I don’t really believe in calling any top ten round pick a “sleeper,” but the top ten round collection of Minter, Guardado, Graham, Clark, Withrow, and Weigel represents an intriguing blend of upside (Minter, Guardado, and Clark could all work in a rotation one day) and high-floor reliever certainty — it’s not sexy, but if they don’t get at least three middle relievers out of that group then I’d be stunned — that gives the system a great deal of depth at arguably the game’s most difficult to fill spot. Every team always needs pitching, so loading up via the draft is never a bad approach. Combine that with a top ten talent in Allard and a lottery ticket in Soroka (who the Braves like — and know — a lot more than I do), and life is good. Of course, loading up on pitching comes at a price. So about those bats…
C Lucas Herbert (79) will get the chance to catch his high school teammate Kolby Allard as a professional, which is a damn cool thing anyway you look at it. His bat is well behind his glove at the moment, but catcher is the one position that you can get away with that in a young prospect. C Trey Keegan (411) gave up his final two years of college eligibility at Bowling Green to get his pro career going, a smart move consider he’s already 22 years old. He checks just about all of my personal boxes as far as catching prospects go: bat speed, arm strength, athleticism, and plate discipline. C Collin Yelich is another college guy with an excellent arm (both accurate and strong) who makes a ton of contact as a hitter.
Unsigned 1B Liam Scafariello (264) was drafted as an infielder, but I’m hoping the big yet athletic guy gets a chance to roam the outfield some now that he’s off to Connecticut. 2B Kurt Hoekstra (324) is a great get as a twenty-first round pick (630) who can swing the bat better than most late-round picks. The pre-draft rumblings about him being athletic enough to give shortstop a shot have been realized, so reaching his utility ceiling now feels more attainable than ever. My preference was to see 3B Austin Riley (88) get a shot on the mound first, but there’s no reason to argue with Atlanta wanting to see the young (18 this past April), athletic, strong-armed, power-hitting (above-average to plus raw) at the hot corner first. So far so good on the power front, though his approach is understandably raw. The Braves might have a type — or I might be more wrong about prospects than I think — since their other third base prospect of note is a player I preferred on the mound pre-draft. 3B Robby Nesovic never wowed as a pitcher at Santa Barbara, but scouts liked his upper-80s sinker/slider combination enough to think he could get a look as a relief prospect. Instead the Braves are taking his plus arm and sturdy frame to the field and batter’s box. We’ll see if it works out for them…and him.
The best outfielder drafted by Atlanta is off to South Carolina. Bummer for them. That would be local product OF DJ Neal (200), a two-way standout that is likely to play both baseball and football for the Gamecocks starting this fall. It’s not a perfect comparison, but there are some shades of Brandon McIlwain, current Council Rock North star and 2016 MLB Draft favorite committed to play both sports at the very same school. Was that a gratuitous mention of a big-time future draft prospect that I wanted to slip in because I’ve otherwise been too lazy to write about how much as I’ve enjoyed watching him play this summer? Could be. As far as signed outfielders go, Justin Ellison and Brad Keller both offer some degree of the power/speed package needed to get an extended opportunity in pro ball.
Top 500 Prospects drafted by Atlanta per me…
8 – Allard
79 – Herbert
88 – Riley
194 – Soroka
287 – Weigel
289 – Minter
324 – Hoekstra
411 – Keegan
434 – Withrow
435 – Graham
The Baseball Draft Report 