Home » 2015
Yearly Archives: 2015
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – North Carolina State
JR RHP Joe O’Donnell (2016)
rJR LHP Sean Adler (2016)
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte (2016)
JR RHP Cory Wilder (2016)
rSR LHP Travis Orwig (2016)
SR LHP Will Gilbert (2016)
rJR RHP Karl Keglovits (2016)
rSR RHP Kyle Smith (2016)
rSR RHP Chris Williams (2016)
rSO LHP Cody Beckman (2016)
JR LHP Ryan Williamson (2016)
JR C/3B Andrew Knizner (2016)
JR 1B Preston Palmeiro (2016)
SR SS Ryne Willard (2016)
SR C Chance Shepard (2016)
rSO OF Garrett Suggs (2016)
SO LHP Brian Brown (2017)
SO RHP Evan Mendoza (2017)
SO RHP/INF Tommy DeJuneas (2017)
rFR OF Storm Edwards (2017)
SO OF Josh McLain (2017)
SO 3B/SS Joe Dunand (2017)
SO 2B Stephen Pitarra (2017)
SO OF Brock Deatherage (2017)
FR SS/OF Xavier LeGrant (2018)
JR C Andrew Knizner is a fascinating prospect who doesn’t quite fit the mold of what one might think of a potential top five round college catcher. Defensively, he’s still very much out of sorts as a relatively new catcher but his athleticism and willingness to make it work could be enough for teams willing to take the long view on his pro future. Offensively, he’s a high contact hitter with excellent plate coverage and power that has a chance to be average or better as he continues to add strength. I tend to give players new to a demanding defensive position the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible, so I’m fine with riding out another half-season or so of shaky defense behind the plate before beginning to ask the question whether or not Knizner has what it takes to be a catcher full-time in the pros. Almost no matter what transpires on the field this year, I can’t see a team drafting Knizner high enough that he’s signable with the intention of at least continuing to try him as a catcher for the foreseeable future. He’s good enough in other areas that it’s not quite a catcher or bust proposition for him, but that depends on how high one’s expectations are for him at this point.
SR C Chance Shepard might be overlooked as the second catcher on a team with a big prospect ahead of him like Knizner, but that shouldn’t be the case. He’s a big guy with power who can handle himself fine defensively. If he gets a chance to play more I think more people will take notice of him as a viable pro prospect.
I’m still on the fence some about JR 1B Preston Palmeiro, but he has some very vocal fans out there who love his swing and think he has a chance to be an average or better hitter with above-average power production. Being a primary first base prospect at the amateur level is a tricky thing with a bit more to it than many — myself included — think about. On the one hand, it’s obvious that being limited defensively to first base drastically increases the threshold of entry to professional baseball as a hitter. You need to hit and hit and hit to make it. On the other hand, there simply isn’t the same competition at first base at the amateur level as there is at other spots. I know that many a big league first baseman played elsewhere along the way, but if we’re just talking about getting drafted in the first place then the competitive field begins to look a lot thinner. In other words, if Palmeiro goes out and hits the shit out of the ball all spring, then what’s to stop a team from valuing that bat higher than we’re conditioned to think because of the relative lack of options to be found later in the draft? Up the middle players are wonderful and we know they dominate these drafts for a reason, but with offensive production (power, especially) growing increasingly scarce at the highest level perhaps the place for a big bat a team believes in will come sooner on draft day.
(This may totally undercut the previous point, but it’s crazy enough to me that I don’t mind. You want the list of first day college first basemen taken since I started the site back in 2009? We’ve got Chris Shaw, Casey Gillaspie, CJ Cron, and…that’s it. Three guys in seven drafts. That probably shouldn’t amaze me, but it does. As we’ve repeated already, many first basemen are made and not born. College first day guys who can also handle and may eventually play 1B full-time include Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, and Stephen Piscotty. I think all can be corner outfielders at worst, but reasonable minds may disagree. If you’re feeling kind you could also add Bryce Brentz, Kyle Parker, and Michael Choice to that list. I’m not sure I see a future big league first baseman of worth out of that trio, but you never know, right? I suppose the point here is that recent historical trends point towards college first basemen lasting longer than one might think. Or maybe it’s a coincidence based on the fact that we’ve had an unusually underwhelming group of college sluggers in this time frame. Or maybe it’s an arbitrary endpoints thing. Who knows!)
JR RHP Cory Wilder might have to go by Cory Wildest if he has another season like his past one. From a performance perspective, the good (11.06 K/9 and 3.50 ERA in 64.1 IP) outweighed the bad (8.26 BB/9) and his stuff has always been on point (88-94 fastball that hits 95 with an average or better breaking ball that flashes plus and a usable low- to mid-80s change), so the package on balance is appealing in spite of his wild ways. Even a small jump in improved control will have him flying up boards this spring. He’s the current 1b to JR RHP Joe O’Donnell’s 1a when ranking the team’s 2016 pitching prospects. O’Donnell has the best shot of any member of the team’s 2016 pitching staff to continue starting as a professional. He’s got the sinker/slider combo at the top (some have called his breaking ball a curve, FWIW), a low-80s changeup with average upside, and no red flags with command, control, delivery, or size. I’m a fan.
rJR RHP Johnny Piedmonte might be the most interesting Wolfpack pitching prospect to a casual fan. I’d venture that guess based on Piedmonte’s size (6-8, 240) more than any other factor. Big guys always get extra attention. Vince McMahon was on to something, I guess. Piedmonte is more than just a monster on the mound, of course. He’s got a good fastball (88-92, 93 peak), a pair of breaking balls with average upside, and a change that he can at least work in from time to time. The size undeniably makes him that much more appealing, so keep an eye on whether or not he can sharpen up one of his two main offspeed pitches and get his mechanics in order this spring.
rSR RHP Kyle Smith might be the most interesting Wolfpack pitching prospect to me. I won’t pretend to know a ton about him just yet, but everything I’ve read and heard is quite intriguing. We know he’s a fantastic athlete with a big arm (90-96 FB) and a slider with promise. We don’t yet know he’ll perform under the bright lights of ACC competition. I’m obviously bullish on his future and will be keeping close tabs on him all spring. I try to be stingy with my FAVORITE designations in my notes — obvious early round players that I like along with everybody else, like Zack Collins of Miami from yesterday’s preview, aren’t given the nod — so it’s worth mentioning that Smith is the first guy profiled so far to get the honor.
SR LHP Will Gilbert gets a mention for missing bats (9.89 K/9 last year) with average stuff (upper-80s FB, average breaking ball) and not much size (5-11, 160). JR LHP Ryan Williamson is similar yet better in most of those areas: 11.04 K/9 last year, 87-92 FB, average upper-70s slider, and listed at 6-3, 200 pounds. That said, if run prevention is your thing then Gilbert (2.47 ERA) tops Williamson (5.17 ERA) based on what they both did last year. rSR LHP Travis Orwig tops them both in that area (1.85 ERA) and offers a decent compromise in terms of stuff (88-92 FB, average or better mid-70s curve) and size (6-2, 210). I don’t have a clever way of tying in rJR LHP Sean Adler into this discussion other than to point out that we’ve got ourselves yet another North Carolina State lefthanded pitching prospect of note. The transfer from USC has some projection left that gives hope he’ll continue to add on to a fastball that lives 85-90 (92 peak).
I’m fairly certain rJR RHP Karl Keglovits is on my top ten list of players I’ve written about the most disproportionate to their draft impact to date. His size (6-6, 230) and movement on his fastball continue to make him an arm I can’t quit, but the next sustained run of effective innings at the college level will be his first.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Florida State
rSR RHP Mike Compton (2016)
rJR LHP Alex Diese (2016)
rSO RHP Taylor Blatch (2016)
JR LHP Alec Byrd (2016)
rSO RHP Andy Ward (2016)
rSO RHP Ed Voyles (2016)
JR RHP Jim Voyles (2016)
rSO RHP Will Zirzow (2016)
rSR LHP Matt Kinney (2016)
rSR RHP Logan Warmouth (2016)
JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio (2016)
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte (2016)
SR 2B/SS John Sansone (2016)
JR C/OF Gage West (2016)
JR 1B/OF Hank Truluck (2016)
JR SS/2B Matt Henderson (2016)
JR C Bryan Bussey (2016)
FR LHP/OF Tyler Holton (2017)
SO RHP Cobi Johnson (2017)
rFR RHP Andrew Karp (2017)
SO RHP Drew Carlton (2017)
SO OF/RHP Steven Wells (2017)
SO C/1B Darren Miller (2017)
SO SS/3B Dylan Busby (2017)
SO SS/2B Taylor Walls (2017)
FR RHP Cole Sands (2018)
FR LHP Jared Middleton (2018)
FR RHP Chase Haney (2018)
FR RHP Ronnie Ramirez (2018)
FR RHP Dillon Brown (2018)
FR C Caleb Raleigh (2018)
FR C/OF Jackson Lueck (2018)
FR OF Donovan Petrey (2018)
I haven’t seen (or heard from those who have seen) enough of JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio to offer a strong take on his professional future. Much of what I can share likely qualifies under “stuff I already know,” assuming you’ve come to this site willingly and under your own accord. DeLuzio is a fantastic athlete with easy plus foot speed, real arm strength, a quick bat, and average or better raw power. I’ve heard from some in the know who believe he’ll be tried back in the infield depending on how open-minded his drafting team is, but the backup plan of having him glide under balls from pole to pole in center isn’t bad, either.
As is the case with many players who have a bushel of tools rattled off at the top of their dossier, the big question surrounding DeLuzio is how much he’ll hit and whether or not his approach will ever improve enough to allow him to tap into his raw power and considerable athletic ability. In this way, he’s similar to many of this year’s draft’s top college prospects while also being a fascinating outlier in history of the Seminoles hitters. He’s not DJ Stewart. He’s not Stephen or Mike McGee. He’s not James Ramsey or Jayce Boyd or Devon Travis or Tyler Holt. That’s both a good and bad thing. I’m not a Florida State historian so I’m sure I’ll hear from fans of the team via email for this, but a case could be made that he’s the highest upside athlete to play in Tallahassee since Buster Posey. Maybe you could argue Taiwan Easterling, D’Vontrey Richardson, or Justin Gonzalez, but the point is that DeLuzio would be at or near the top of the list over the past decade or so. For all his gifts, however, DeLuzio still swings and misses a lot. That’s not a trait shared by the aforementioned Stewart, McGee’s, Ramsey, Boyd, Travis, or Holt. Of that group, the guy he is most similar to both athletically and from a plate discipline standpoint is Travis. In no way is it a direct comparison, but a bigger Devon Travis isn’t the worst frame of reference to what DeLuzio could be. DeLuzio needs to find out whatever it is that helped Travis make the jump from athletic yet raw college hacker to athletic yet refined professional hitter. If I knew what it took or could predict a breakout, I’d…well, I’d probably still be doing this because babies and mortgages are expensive and entry level baseball jobs are for men and women much younger than myself.
JR 1B/C Quincy Nieporte is more of a classic FSU hitter (.297/.391/.445 with 22 BB/19 K) with a reasonable shot to get drafted if he can do similar things in 2016. SR 2B/SS John Sansome has some sneaky pop and defensive versatility. JR C/OF Gage West needs at bats, but everybody I’ve spoken to about him see a breakout season ahead.
Was rSR RHP Mike Compton’s standout 2015 season an example of an older pitcher taking advantage of overmatched teenage competition or a return to 100% health after missing the 2013 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery? It’ll be hard to answer that question with much certainty in 2016 now that the fifth-year senior has put another year between himself and the opposition, but a repeat of his excellent season (jumped from 5.36 K/9 in 2014 to 8.87 K/9 in 2015) will definitely put him on the draft radar. I like Compton as a gritty college performer with enough stuff (highlighted by mid-80s sinkers and above-average low-70s curves), a deceptive motion, impeccable fastball command, and a veteran big league pitcher’s knowledge of the craft. He’d be a mid- to late-round target if I had a say in a draft room. Both rSO RHP Ed Voyles and JR RHP Jim Voyles have the size (6-7, 200) and stuff (CU for Ed, SL for Jim) to get hitters out if they can get and stay on a mound. Jim did good work last year, so he’s currently ahead but the two figure to be as close as you’d expect on rankings throughout the spring. I’ve heard good things about rSO RHP Andy Ward (up to 93, nice slider) as a potential relief prospect if he can stay healthy.
rJR LHP Alex Diese hasn’t gotten a ton of exposure (just 16.1 IP last year), but he’s got enough fastball and flashes two really promising offspeed pitches (plus CU and average or better CB). If it all comes together for him, he could shoot up boards. JR LHP Alec Byrd isn’t too far off stuff-wise with some projection left in his 6-4, 180 pound frame. That’s good for almost half a foot on rSO RHP Taylor Blatch, the 5-11, 160 pound athlete capable of running it up to the low- to mid-90s on his best day. If he can curtail some of his wildness, he could join the rest of this group as a potential draft possibility.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Duke
JR RHP Bailey Clark (2016)
rSO RHP Karl Blum (2016)
rSO LHP Jim Ziemba (2016)
SR LHP Nick Hendrix (2016)
rSR RHP Conner Stevens (2016)
JR LHP Kevin Lewallyn (2016)
rSR LHP Trent Swart (2016)
rSR RHP Kellen Urbon (2016)
rJR OF Jalen Phillips (2016)
JR C Cristian Perez (2016)
SO LHP Chris McGrath (2017)
SO LHP Mitch Stallings (2017)
SO RHP/SS Ryan Day (2017)
SO 3B/RHP Jack Labosky (2017)
SO 1B Justin Bellinger (2017)
SO 3B/SS Max Miller (2017)
SO 2B/OF Peter Zyla (2017)
SO OF Michael Smicicklas (2017)
SO OF Evan Dougherty (2017)
FR RHP Al Pesto (2018)
FR OF Keyston Fuller (2018)
FR OF Kennie Taylor (2018)
FR OF Jimmy Herron (2018)
FR SS Zack Kone (2018)
FR SS Zack Kesterson (2018)
FR OF Griffin Conine (2018)
JR RHP Bailey Clark was ranked 47th on the initial 2016 MLB Draft prospect list (college only) back in October. This was what was written then…
Poised for a big potential rise in 2016, Clark has the kind of stuff that blows you away on his best days and leaves you wanting more on his not so best days. I think he puts it all together this year and makes this ranking look foolish by June.
…and obviously not much has changed in the two months since. Clark pitched really well last year (2.95 ERA in 58 IP), but fell just short in terms of peripherals (7.60 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9) where many of the recent first day college starting pitchers have finished in recent years. That’s a very simplistic, surface-level analysis of his 2015 performance, but it runs parallel with the scouting reports from many who saw him this past spring. Clark is really good, but still leaves you wanting more. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — being a finished product at 20-years-old is more of a negative than a positive in the eyes of many in the scouting world — but it speaks to the developmental challenges facing Clark if he wants to jump up into the first round mix. The fastball (88-94, 96 peak) is there, the size (6-5, 210) is there, and the athleticism is there, so it’ll come down to gaining more command and consistency on his mid-80s cut-SL (a knockout pitch when on) and trusting his nascent changeup in game action enough to give scouts an honest opportunity to assess it. Even if little changes with Clark between now and June, we’re still talking a top five round lock with the high-floor possibility of future late-inning reliever. If he makes the expected leap in 2016, then the first round will have to make room for one more college arm.
JR C Cristian Perez and rJR OF Jalen Phillips are both “show-me” prospects at this stage. Both are physically advanced and full of intriguing tools, but still very rough around the edges when it comes to demonstrating consistent professional baseball skills. It’s not a stretch at all to see one or both guys wind up in the top ten rounds: Perez has a unique blend of athleticism, physical strength, power upside, and defensive promise behind the plate while Phillips is an average or better runner with an elite throwing arm. Holding them back offensively is an all-or-nothing approach to hitting that led to a combined 31 BB/108 K ratio last season. If either player begins taking better at bats, then they’ll move up these rankings quickly. Until then, however, I’ll remain bearish on their professional futures.
Neither rSO RHP Karl Blum nor rSO LHP Jim Ziemba have the type of track records typically associated with potential top ten round guys, but both could reach that level by June. Blum is a strike-thrower with a nice fastball (88-92 with more coming) and above-average breaking ball, plus plenty of size (6-5, 210) and athleticism. The 6-10, 230 pound Ziemba tops him in the size department and matches him in terms of present stuff. The big righthander was all kinds of wild in a small sample (9.2 IP) last season, but has the kind of ability to do major damage down the line with his funky sidearm delivery if he can get his mechanics in check.
SR LHP Nick Hendrix and rSR LHP Trent Swart could get looks as matchup lefty relievers. I’ve always had a soft spot for Swart, a changeup specialist with enough fastball (mid- to upper-80s) and deception to mess with the timing of good hitters. If he’s healthy after missing last year (Tommy John surgery), then there’s no reason he won’t get some sort of a shot in pro ball. Cornell transfer rSR RHP Kellen Urbon joins them as a potential mid- to late-round relief prospect of note.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Clemson
SR RHP Clate Schmidt (2016)
rSR RHP Patrick Andrews (2016)
rJR RHP Wales Toney (2016)
rJR RHP Garrett Lovorn (2016)
JR LHP Alex Bostic (2016)
JR LHP Pat Krall (2016)
JR LHP Andrew Towns (2016)
rSO RHP Drew Moyer (2016)
rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana (2016)
JR C Chris Okey (2016)
JR SS/2B Eli White (2016)
JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson (2016)
rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman (2016)
rSO 3B Glenn Batson (2016)
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson (2016)
rJR 1B/OF Andrew Cox (2016)
FR LHP Jake Higginbotham (2017)
SO LHP Charlie Barnes (2017)
SO RHP Paul Campbell (2017)
SO 2B Adam Renwick (2017)
SO OF Chase Pinder (2017)
rFR OF KJ Bryant (2017)
SO OF Drew Wharton (2017)
SO C Robert Jolly (2017)
SO C/1B Chris Williams (2017)
FR RHP Ryley Gilliam (2018)
FR RHP Zach Goodman (2018)
FR RHP Graham Lawson (2018)
FR RHP/1B Brooks Crawford (2018)
FR RHP Tom Walker (2018)
FR RHP Andrew Papp (2018)
FR C Jordan Greene (2018)
FR SS/2B Grant Cox (2018)
JR C Chris Okey is in a great position heading into his draft year as an athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit. In today’s game, that’s exactly what big league teams want in a catcher, especially if you throw in the (overrated by the internet in terms of importance, but not altogether unimportant) ability to frame pitches. As I’ve written about countless times before (including the quoted Okey blurb from October you can read below), as the run environment has shifted away from the highest highs of the PED-era so too has the general preference for athleticism and defensive reliability behind the plate. This shift has come largely at the expense of big power and raw arm strength at the position. Mobility, flexibility, and fundamentally sound glovework is what moves the needle now. I’m thinking of recent early picks like Taylor Ward, Max Pentecost, Reese McGuire, and Justin O’Conner as the prototypes for this latest wave. Athletes like Russell Martin, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy, and Buster Posey (the man I remember watching play a decent shortstop once upon a time at Florida State) all represent the best case scenario for this player archetype; not coincidentally, those guys all rank in the top nine in fWAR since 2010 with a lot of their value tied up in excellent defensive numbers.
So what does any of this really have to do with Okey? While it’s great that he ticks off many of the boxes that teams like in a catching prospect, nobody is drafting a theoretical catcher archetype. Okey may be a fine example of the modern catcher, but that doesn’t mean he’s a slam dunk first round catcher. Here’s what I wrote about him a few months back…
Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as [Matt] Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.
That all holds up today (obviously…it’s been two months!), but it should be noted that the nice things said about his game are a step below what many (myself included) were saying about him after his senior season of high school. His defense behind the plate never quite reached the threshold where you’d call any one component of his game consistently plus. He’s shown some plus pop times in the past, sure, but not as often as average to above-average times. I don’t think anybody would have imagined he’d get more athletic past his teenage years — time has a way of catching up to everybody — but there is a little bit more stiffness to him at present than you might think if going off those old scouting reports. He’s still the athletic, above-average all-around defensive catcher who can run a little bit that we mentioned at the top. And if we’re going to call him out some for slipping a bit — or, perhaps more accurately, not developing as hoped — with the glove, then it’s only right to praise him for the maturation of his power. What was once considered promising but far off has turned into displays of average or better present power with the shot at plus raw still out there. I’d err on the side of caution with his future power grade and put him closer to the average to above-average range where it currently plays, but that still means he could be a steady 15-20 home run bat at his peak. One interesting name that I heard as a comparison that makes a little bit of sense: Mike Lieberthal.
I still like Matt Thaiss as the draft’s top college catcher (with Zack Collins and the reports of his improved defense coming on very fast), but Okey and a host of others remain just a half-step behind as we enter the spring season.
JR SS/2B Eli White and JR 3B/SS Weston Wilson should make up what looks to be one of college ball’s most fascinating left sides of the infield. Neither White, an unsigned 37th round pick as a draft-eligible sophomore last season, nor Wilson, a former shortstop who has grown nicely into a prototypical third baseman, have the kind of plate discipline to profile as future regulars at this point, but the tools are loud. White is a good athlete who can really run with tons of bat speed and a high probability of sticking at shortstop. I compared him to Daniel Pinero last year and think he could have a similar impact in 2016. Wilson was a big favorite out of high school because of his intriguing defensive tools and emerging power. Each player still has both a lot to work on and a lot to work with.
rJR OF Maleeke Gibson remains intriguing as a speedy athlete lottery ticket. rSO OF/1B Reed Rohlman might hit his way onto rankings by the end of the season. rSO 3B Glenn Batson has flashed power upside, but is still a long way away in terms of approach.
SR RHP Clate Schmidt has overcome a great deal to get back to position himself to a return to the mound this spring. His athleticism, fastball (90-94, 96 peak), and impressive low-80s slider make him a prospect to watch, and his story of perseverance makes him a player to appreciate. If the return to health in 2016 has him feeling more like himself this spring (i.e., he’s more 2014 than 2015), then his feel-good story should end with a potential top ten round draft selection and honest shot in pro ball.
JR LHP Alex Bostic lives in the low-90s from the left side with an average or better upper-70s breaking ball. That’ll get you noticed. rJR RHP Wales Toney has always been a favorite of mine thanks to his quality stuff (88-92 FB, up to 95) and raw yet interesting offspeed repertoire. I think having a memorable name probably helps, too. I have much love for JR LHP Pat Krall, one of the last few survivors of the Temple program still kicking around college ball. He’s more than just a good story as his ability to miss bats (9.0 K/9 in 38 IP last year) with reasonably solid stuff (upper-80s FB, usable CU) from the left side make him a potential late-round prospect. rSO RHP Drew Moyer pitched really well in limited innings last season. He’s got the stuff to back it up (low-90s FB, advanced CU), so keep him in mind this spring. rJR RHP/1B Jackson Campana is a little bit like the pitching version of Maleeke Gibson to me. I see his size (6-6, 225) and wonder what he could do if the stars aligned, but so far fortune hasn’t been on his side. Maybe this is the year he can get regular time — pitching or hitting, I’m not picky — and show off what he can really do. Getting rSR RHP Patrick Andrews back is both good for the 2016 Clemson team and for fans of large-bodied (6-4, 240) righthanded pitchers who can crank it up to the mid-90s (88-92 FB, 94-95 peak). Add in an average or better slider and you’ve got a potential relief prospect if he can stay healthy.
Two guys to watch out for in future drafts that aren’t yet listed on the Clemson roster: SO SS Grayson Byrd and FR OF Seth Beer.
2016 MLB Draft Prospects – Boston College
SR LHP Jesse Adams (2016)
SR RHP John Nicklas (2016)
JR RHP Justin Dunn (2016)
JR RHP Mike King (2016)
JR RHP Bobby Skogsbergh (2016)
SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin (2016)
SR OF Logan Hoggarth (2016)
SR C Stephen Sauter (2016)
JR SS/3B Johnny Adams (2016)
JR C Nick Sciortino (2016)
JR OF/RHP Michael Strem (2016)
SO RHP/OF Donovan Casey (2017)
SO 3B Jake Palomaki (2017)
FR RHP Jacob Stevens (2017)
FR C Gian Martellini (2018)
SR LHP Jesse Adams is not particularly big nor does he throw particularly hard, but he’s been consistently effective and figures to remain so as a professional. I think there’s clear matchup lefthanded reliever upside to him with the chance that a team less concerned about his size and more enamored with his three-pitch mix (87-91 FB, above-average mid-70s CB, upper-70s CU) will let him keep starting. SR RHP John Nicklas is a step below as a prospect, but has some of the qualities (88-92 FB, interesting low-80s breaking ball, undersized) you see in late round relief fliers.
JR RHP Justin Dunn has the chance to have the kind of big junior season that puts him in the top five round conversation this June. Like Adams and Nicklas, Dunn’s size might be a turn-off for some teams. Unlike those guys, it figures to be easier to overlook because of a potent fastball/breaking ball one-two punch. Though he’s matured as a pitcher in many ways since enrolling at BC, he’s still a little rough around the edges with respect to both his command and control. His arm speed (consistently 90-94, up to 96) and that aforementioned low-80s slider are what put him in the early round mix. If he can continue to make strides with his command and control and gain a little consistency with a third pitch (he’s shown both a CB and a CU already, but both need work), then he’ll really rise. That’s a pretty obvious statement now that I read it back, but I think it probably can apply to about 75% of draft prospects before the season begins. No sense in hiding from it, I suppose.
For as much as I personally like Dunn, others have JR RHP Mike King as Boston College’s top prospect (pitching or otherwise) heading into 2016. Frankly, it’s hard to argue. I mean, I had planned to do just that in this very space, but have mentally backtracked before I even got the chance to start. King has a solid heater (88-92, 93 peak), above-average low-80s changeup, and outstanding overall command. If one of his two breaking pitches sharpens up, then he’s a threat to crash the top five rounds just like Dunn. If you’re keeping score, I’d give the advantages of command, control, frame, and track record to King. It also shouldn’t be discounted that his name sounds like “viking” when said quickly. Dunn gets the edge in fastball velocity, all-around bat-missing stuff (this is double-counting his fastball some, but I’d say his slider is more of a strikeout pitch than King’s change, even while acknowledging that they are both more or less equally effective pitches) and athleticism. I’ll stick with the claim that both have top five round upside, but hedge some and say it’s more likely they wind up in the six to ten round range, where they’d be potential steals. Bonus prediction: Dunn gets drafted higher this June, but King winds up the (slightly) better long-term professional player.
Offensively, there’s no Chris Shaw to carry the prospect mantle this year. I don’t know much about JR OF Michael Strem, but he hit well last year (.296/.379/.437 in 206 AB) so he’s on the radar for me now. SR 3B/SS Joe Cronin and JR SS/3B Johnny Adams are steady gloves who can hold down any infield spot with relative ease. I think Adams still has upside he’s not yet tapped into, so keep his name in the back of your mind when thinking deep sleeper college middle infielders. SR C Stephen Sauter (little more offense) and JR C Nick Sciortino (little more defense) form a pretty nice college catching tandem with a little bit of pro upside.
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview: HS Outfielders
In 2013, we had Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier battle down to the wire to see which prep outfielder from the state of Georgia would wind up the first off the board. In 2016, we’re set to have Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford, both from California, go back and forth until June to see who goes higher. Forced narrative or something more? I’m inclined to say it’s more than former than the latter –considering it’s a narrative I personally made up mere minutes ago, that should make some sense – but suggesting that the two head-to-head battles run parallel in some ways isn’t crazy. Despite some internet comparisons that paint him as the Meadows, I think the better proxy for Rutherford is Frazier. Issues with handedness, height, and hair hue aside, Frazier as a starting point for Rutherford (offensively only as Frazier’s arm strength blows the average-ish arm of Rutherford away) can be used because the two both have really good looking well-balanced swings, tons of bat speed, and significant raw power. The parallel gets a little bit of extra juice when you consider Frazier and Rutherford were/are also both a little bit older than their draft counterparts.
The extra bit of youth isn’t what gives Moniak the edge for me, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. What separates Moniak at this present moment is his ability to hit the ball hard everywhere. Sometimes simplistic analysis works. The manner in which Moniak sprays line drives and deep flies to all fields resembles something a ten-year veteran who flirts with batting titles season after season does during BP. Trading off a little bit of Rutherford’s power for Moniak’s hit tool and approach (both in his mindfulness as a hitter and his plate discipline) are worth it for me. Of course, check back with me in a few months…I had Meadows ahead of Frazier for a long time before giving in to the latter’s arm, power, and approach (as a whole-fields power hitter, not necessarily as an OBP machine). History may yet repeat itself, but I’ll take Moniak for now.
I know more than a few Phillies fans that are dreaming about a 1-2 punch of Jason Groome and Brandon McIlwain at the top of the draft. The obvious tie-in for the casual fan is that both players are local, but bonus demands are what make it truly interesting. Money saved on a high school arm with the first pick could end up spend on the draft’s top two-sport talent only available so late due to a high price tag. McIlwain has game-changing speed, athleticism that ranks at or near the top of the entire class, and the kind of bat speed, coordination, and pitch recognition that is typically not associated with a four-star QB recruit. Check this out…
[He] has true bat speed and strength, and makes adjustments against better pitching. His other tools are outrageous: he’s a plus-plus runner with Gold Glove potential in center field and a strong throwing arm that grades out above-average as well. [He] plays with supreme confidence that goes hand-in-hand with his well-above-average athletic ability.
That’s Baseball America’s pre-draft report on Donavan Tate. I think there are definitely some similarities between the amateur version of Tate and McIlwain now. I’m not suggesting McIlwain will rise to Tate’s draft heights (3rd overall pick) nor do I think McIlwain’s pro career will go up in smoke like Tate’s, but simply looking at their respective tool sets as amateurs shows many similarities. I liked Tate a lot then, so it should be no shock that I like McIlwain a lot now.
Will Benson has gotten the Jason Heyward comp for just about a full year now because that’s what happens when you’re a Georgia high school player built like he is (6-6, 220) with a future right fielder profile. The comparison ceases to work when you factor in pesky factors beyond size and geography; the inclusion of baseball ability (defense and plate discipline, most notably) muddles it up, but it’s still good fun at this point in the draft process. Even though he’s not Heyward, Benson does a lot well. He’s got electric bat speed, he moves really well for a big guy, and he’s as strong as you’d expect from looking at him. If he cleans up his approach and keeps working on his defense then maybe those Heyward comparisons will begin to look a little bit smarter. Or not! It’s December and we’re talking about teenagers, so nothing is written in ink.
The gap between Benson and Avery Tuck is as tiny as it gets. I can easily see Tuck being the first of the two off the board; in fact, he might be the most likely contender of the current top tier prospects to knock Moniak/Rutherford out of the number one spot for the position group. Like Benson, Tuck is a physical specimen who looks like he was born to put on the uniform. He’s strong (though not quite on Benson’s level) with room to fill out, he’s got a really strong arm, and his athleticism is second to none. There is some swing-and-miss to his game (like Benson) that will have to be addressed, but if he can even approach an average future hit tool…well, that’s a top fifteen pick with the chance to rise higher than that. My personal feelings about Tuck’s power align with what I think about Carlos Cortes’s hit tool. In my conversations with people smarter than myself (impossible, right?), there seem to be far more questions about each (Tuck’s power, Cortes’s hit) than what I’ve seen with my novice eyes. So, as with the conversation on Cortes, if you want the consensus that I’ve gotten, then consider Tuck a really promising potential first round outfielder with average or better raw power, tons of bat speed, elite athleticism, and some real contact questions. If you want my own amateur view, then consider all that accurate but up the power to an easy plus (25+ HR at peak) with the kind of present power not typically seen in guys his age.
Alex Kirilloff is a clear step down athletically from the rest of the top tier, but, man, can he hit. If I would have kept him at first base on these rankings then there’s no question he would have finished atop that position list. He’s behind potential stars like Moniak, Rutherford, McIlwain, Benson, and Tuck for now, but that’s for reasons of defensive upside and athleticism more than anything. By June, Kirilloff’s bat might be too loud to be behind a few of those names. Seeing him this spring is a high priority for me; considering his high school plays home games about five hours away from me (to those that don’t know: Pennsylvania is a sneaky long state), that should say a lot about what I think of him as a prospect. The fact that I could stop off and get a Colossal Fish & Cheese sandwich (delicious on its own and made better with the side of nostalgia that comes with it as it was part of my first official meal as a married man last summer) only sweetens the deal. Recent draft trends have pushed athletic prep outfielders up draft boards at the expense of bigger bats, but I think Kirilloff is good enough to break through.
OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
OF Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep HS, California)
OF Brandon McIlwain (Council Rock North HS, Pennsylvania)
OF/1B Will Benson (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
OF Avery Tuck (Steele Canyon HS, California)
OF/1B Alex Kirilloff (Plum HS, Pennsylvania)
OF Jaren Shelby (Tates Creek HS, Kentucky)
OF Akil Baddoo (Salem HS, Georgia)
OF Chase Cheek (Phillips HS, Florida)
OF Garrett Hodges (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Francisco Del Valle (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
OF Taylor Trammel (Mt. Paran Christian HS, Georgia)
OF Josh Stephen (Mater Dei HS, California)
OF/LHP Khalil Lee (Flint Hill HS, Virginia)
OF Christian Long (Westside HS, Texas)
OF Dean Looney (Butler HS, North Carolina)
OF Ronald Washington (Ridge Point HS, Texas)
OF Kobie Taylor (Portsmouth HS, New Hampshire)
OF Keenan Bell (Episcopal HS, Florida)
OF Thomas Jones (Laurens 55 HS, South Carolina)
OF/LHP Austin Langworthy (Williston HS, Florida)
OF Trace Bucey (Carroll HS, Texas)
OF Michael Farley (Chico HS, California)
OF Jordan Wiley (Richland HS, Texas)
OF/LHP Andrew Baker (Ridge Community HS, Florida)
OF Langston Watkins (Louisville Male HS, Kentucky)
OF Andre Nnebe (St. Mary’s HS, California)
OF Wyatt Featherston (Green Mountain HS, Colorado)
OF Dominic Fletcher (Cypress HS, California)
OF Bailin Markridge (O’Connor HS, Arizona)
OF Dalton Griffin (South Effingham HS, Georgia)
OF Dominic Clementi (Arrowhead HS, Wisconsin)
OF EP Reese (North Davidson HS, North Carolina)
OF Connor Capel (Seven Lakes HS, Texas)
OF Spencer Taylor (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF/RHP Trevor Boone (Tulsa Memorial HS, Oklahoma)
OF Terence Norman (Kennesaw Mountain HS, Georgia)
OF Jose Layer (Colegio Angel David, Puerto Rico)
OF Jarrett Finger (Grandview HS, Colorado)
OF Ryan Mejia (Alonso HS, Florida)
OF Marcus Mack (Bellaire HS, Texas)
OF Gabe Simons (Ada HS, Oklahoma)
OF Robert Bullard (Thurgood Marshall HS, Texas)
OF Matthew Fraizer (Clovis North HS, California)
OF Caleb Green (Metter HS, Georgia)
OF/LHP Kyle Stowers (Christian HS, California)
OF Luke Lalumia (Grand Ledge HS, Michigan)
OF Raymond Hernandez (Fernando Ledesma Continuation, Puerto Rico)
OF Nick Neville (IMG Academy, Florida)
OF Raymond Salaman (Luis Hernaiz Verone HS, Puerto Rico)
OF Ryan Brown (St. James HS, Maryland)
OF Denilson Elligson (Graceville HS, Florida)
OF/RHP Brandon Fraley (Caravel Academy, Delaware)
OF Kingsley Ballao (Maui HS, Hawaii)
OF Dylan Hirsch (El Camino Real HS, California)
OF Hunter Judd (Knoxville Catholic HS, Tennessee)
OF Landon Silver (Huntington Beach HS, California)
OF Juan Carlos Abreu (Winter Springs HS, Florida)
OF Cameron Blake (Round Rock HS, Texas)
OF Jerrette Lee (Columbus HS, Georgia)
OF Brock Anderson (Sparkman HS, Alabama)
OF/3B Armani Smith (De La Salle HS, California)
OF Chase Murray (Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy, Ohio)
OF Michael Wilson (Colonia HS, New Jersey)
OF Colin Brophy (Notre Dame HS, California)
OF Brad Demco (Lake Travis HS, Texas)
OF Jalen Harrison (St. Anne’s-Belfield HS, Virginia)
OF Keegan Snowbarger (St. Xavier HS, Kentucky)
OF Jeremy Ydens (St. Francis HS, California)
OF Nick Howie (Garth Webb SS, Ontario)
OF Clayton Keyes (Bishop Carroll HS, Alberta)
OF Dante Baldelli (Bishop Hendricken HS, Rhode Island)
OF Tremaine Spears (Tioga HS, Louisiana)
OF Aldrich De Jongh (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida)
OF Alvaro Valdez (Westminster Christian HS, Florida)
OF Ryan Novis (Corona Del Sol HS, Arizona)
OF Mason Nadeau (North Penn HS, Pennsylvania)
OF Jack Suwinski (Taft HS, Illinois)
OF Nikolas Dague (Sickles HS, Florida)
OF Joe Faulkner (Cumberland Gap HS, Tennessee)
OF Donnie Gleneski (Bishop Kenny HS, Florida)
OF Eric Rivera (Flanagan HS, Florida)
OF Jordan McFarland (Waterloo HS, Illinois)
OF Christian Moya (South Hills HS, California)
OF Tony Schultz (Saints Peter and Paul HS, Maryland)
OF Ben Lewis (Horizon HS, Arizona)
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview: HS Third Basemen
Catcher and third base are my top favorite high school infield position groups heading into the spring. If forced to choose, I’d have to go with the men who man the hot corner. Seeing as we’ve covered the backstops already, let’s take a closer look at what makes this year’s group of third basemen so special. More so than tremendous depth, there’s a wild amount of star power at the head of this class. I see no less than a half-dozen potential first round picks as we live and breathe here in early December. That ain’t bad.
I’m not sure if this qualifies as a bold statement or not, but I think Josh Lowe is the best baseball player in this class. That doesn’t necessarily make him the best prospect – though he’s pretty damn close and a legit contender to go 1-1 in my view – so allow me to clarify what I mean. Best baseball player is a weird thing to discuss because it can be interpreted in many different ways. The best player in baseball right now is Mike Trout. The best player that I’ve ever seen close up is Barry Bonds, arguably the greatest ballplayer who ever lived. The man that many would counter Bonds with would be Babe Ruth. That would get no argument out of me; in fact, his case for best all-around baseball player might be the strongest of any to have played the game. The argument for Ruth is particularly strong when you take the idea of “best baseball player” literally. Which player hit, defended, and pitched as well as Ruth? If you sort this list by innings, you’ve got some other HOF names that could at least be in the mix.
Or is it somebody from this list? Or is it a great hitting pitcher like Walter Johnson, Ken Brett, Dontrelle Willis, Don Larsen, Mike Hampton, or Carlos Zambrano? Or a current player like Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Leake, or Madison Bumgarner? Could it be a hitter who can also pitch like Cliff Pennington, Chris Davis, Rick Ankiel, Brooks Kieschnick, Jason Lane, or John Cangelosi? Maybe the best all-around isn’t even playing Major League Baseball: a case could be made for two-way star Shohei Otani as the top guy in the world.
So, long story short, I just compared Josh Lowe to Babe Ruth in a roundabout way. You heard it here first. We’ve clearly gone off the deep end here. Let’s try to get back on track.
When I go through my mental rolodex of every player I’ve seen up close, few stand out as more impressive than Lowe. He makes the most challenging sport to play well look easy, often comically so. As a third baseman, I’d put him down for plus tools in foot speed, arm strength, and raw power. Then there’s also his obvious exceptional athleticism – guys who can pitch and hit and field at his level tend to only get away with it by being pretty special athletically – and a measured, smart approach to hitting that is almost as if he has the strike zone knowledge of, you guessed it, a top pitching prospect.
I have not seen any of the other top prospect lists yet to know if this is particularly high or not, but I don’t see a high school infielder that quite compares to Lowe at this stage. He’s the best prep infielder for me.
(I just peaked at Baseball America’s list and I guess my take isn’t as original as I thought. Rats. Still, like BA, I think Lowe is second as a HS hitter in his class only behind one outfielder…except we disagree on who the outfielder is. Stay tuned to see who I picked! Or…just use some common sense. Either way.)
My current favorite high school third base prospect is Carter Kieboom. That is a statement I wrote a few days ago before I finally caved and moved Lowe from my pitching list to the hitting list. Now he’s second, but not because of anything he has or hasn’t done on the field. By the way, I’m not quite sure how high Lowe would have finished on my pitching list, but he would have been very, very high up there. In fact, I think I might prefer him on the mound. His type of athleticism with his strength, ability to spin a breaking ball, and impressive (though admittedly inconsistent) command is a special package. I have him down for three potential plus pitches, so if hitting doesn’t work out then his fallback plan is clear.
Andres Sosa shares a lot of the same positive traits as Kieboom. Both guys are athletic, power-hitting righthanded bats with approaches at the plate that are mature beyond their years. Sosa is a half-step behind for me, but that’s more about how much I like Kieboom, who I think has a chance to finish the year comfortably in the draft’s top twenty, than anything else.
The 1b to Kieboom’s 1a on this list is Joe Rizzo. Again, that was written before the Lowe switch. So let’s pretend it says 1c and 1b and move on. Let’s also pretend my backspace key is broken to keep the illusion alive. While Kieboom is more of the classically built high school shortstop expected to outgrow the middle infield and become a defensive asset at third type (can’t shake that Perfect Game Corey Seager comp…), Rizzo is, well, I’m not quite sure how to describe Rizzo. He’s extremely strong and an unusually gifted natural hitter, but his body more closely resembles that of a backup catcher on the wrong side of a thirty than a teenage first round draft prospect. His body type will be a secondary concern (if that) as long as he keeps mashing, though a potential move behind the plate could help eliminate some of the cognitive dissonance that comes to watching him play.
Nolan Jones is my John Aiello for 2016. Aiello, a freshman on the upcoming 2016 Wake Forest team and potential first round 2018 draft prospect, played in my backyard in 2015. Now it’s Jones’ turn to be the local high school shortstop with good size and a big arm (though Aiello never got to show his off this past spring as he recovered from TJ surgery) expected to be shifted to third base as a pro to get viewed under THE BASEBALL DRAFT REPORT microscope this spring. I’m sure he’s quite excited for that honor. For what it’s worth, I like Jones even more than I liked Aiello at this same stage last year. His Virginia commitment has me thinking of two Cavaliers that his game reminds me of some: Daniel Pinero and freshman (and fellow PA HS product) Ryan Karstetter. Again, like the Aiello comparison, I think Jones is ahead of where those guys were at similar stages of development. I almost think of him as a slightly lesser version of Josh Lowe in terms of offensive and defensive tools: big arm, fantastic athlete, legit power, and more than enough glove. In the FWIW department, I’ve heard from those who know that some teams like him as a second baseman as much as a third baseman (assuming shortstop doesn’t work out). The thought of the 6-5, 200 pounds Jones manning second is just a wonderful thing…unless you’re a base runner barreling towards him, I guess.
Bo Bichette is a really good prospect. Bo Bichette also makes my head hurt. I was never all that high on his brother (“I’d be lying if I said I felt good about his future from an instinctual standpoint” is a thing I said about him once and I ranked him 103rd on my board when he went 51st), so I admittedly went into my evaluation of him with a little bit of a skeptical predisposition. That’s not fair and not a particularly good way of doing business, but I’m human and therefore susceptible to silly biases with a brain desperate to create formations of patterns when there’s really nothing there. Fortunately, I’m also a fairly reasonable human who is all too aware of his own failings, so I did my best to get over whatever agenda my dumb brain tried to stick me with. Bichette is really good and getting better. I’m a believer in his power, his bat speed is no joke, and he takes at bats (works deep counts, utilizes whole-field approach) like a seasoned professional hitter already. I’m not on board with those who’d like to push his glove to second, but I think he’s athletic enough to hand at third for a bit. A strange and arguably nonsensical comparison that came to me when watching him over the summer: Maikel Franco. You watch him and maybe it shouldn’t all work, but it does.
In terms of talent, Luis Curbelo, Drew Mendoza, Kevin Brophy, and Colton Welker all could join that Kieboom/Sosa tier of athletic shortstops likely to outgrow the position professionally. All have the ability to finish in the top five at the position by June. Joey Polak and Andrew Daschbach could reach similar heights as both guys can just flat hit. There’s something about Polak in particular that I find myself oddly drawn to with every watch. Whatever “it” is for a hitter, he has it.
3B/RHP Josh Lowe (Pope HS, Georgia)
3B/SS Carter Kieboom (Walton HS, Georgia)
3B/C Joe Rizzo (Oakton HS, Virginia)
3B/SS Nolan Jones (Holy Ghost Prep, Pennsylvania)
3B/SS Andres Sosa (Reagan HS, Texas)
3B/2B Bo Bichette (Lakewood HS, Florida)
3B/SS Luis Curbelo (Cocoa HS, Florida)
3B/SS Drew Mendoza (Lake Minneola HS, Florida)
3B Joey Polak (Quincy Notre Dame HS, Illinois)
3B/SS Kevin Brophy (Morristown-Beard School, New Jersey)
3B/1B Andrew Daschbach (Sacred Heart Prep, California)
3B Rylan Thomas (Windermere Prep, Florida)
3B/SS Colton Welker (Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS, Florida)
3B/RHP Mason Studstill (Rockledge HS, Florida)
3B/OF Anthony Gonnella (Riverside HS, Florida)
3B Austin Shenton (Bellingham HS, Washington)
3B/SS Daniel Bakst (Poly Prep Country Day School, New York)
3B Joe Skinner (Bishop Moore HS, Florida)
3B Zach Weller (Coronado HS, California)
3B Braden Shewmake (Wylie East HS, Texas)
3B Spencer Steer (Millikan HS, California)
3B/RHP Isaiah Kearns (Mifflin County HS, Pennsylvania)
3B Colin Ludwig (Chandler HS, Arizona)
3B Mitchell Caskey (Westside HS, Texas)
3B Cole Henderson (Valhalla HS, California)
3B Blake Berry (Casa Grande HS, California)
3B/RHP Matt Mervis (Georgetown Prep, Maryland)
3B/SS Matt Burkart (Eaton HS, Colorado)
3B Mason Templet (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)
3B/RHP Garrett Milchin (Windermere Prep, Florida)
3B Chad McClanahan (Brophy College Prep, Arizona)
3B Laney Orr (Reynolds HS, North Carolina)
3B Peyton Russoniello (Quaker Valley HS, Pennsylvania)
3B Matthew Miller (Paintsville HS, Kentucky)
3B William Matthiessen (West Linn HS, Oregon)
3B Riley Hogan (Edgewater HS, Florida)
3B Kyle Johnson (Jackson Memorial HS, New Jersey)
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview: HS Shortstops
I have less of a feel for this shortstop group than I do any other collection of position players. Delvin Perez has separated himself from the rest, but I’m not sure any other infielder has a definitive claim on the second spot right now. This puts us right around where we were last June when Brendan Rodgers was a clear number one with the field left to duke it out for second.
One of the few things I’m sure about with this is class is that it’s loaded with prospects who have the glove to stick at short. Perez leads the way as a no-doubt shortstop who might just be able to hit his way into the top half of the first round. I’d like to see (and hear) more about his bat, but the glove (range, footwork, release, instincts, everything), arm strength, athleticism, and speed add up a potential first round prospect. If that feels like me hedging a bit, you’re exactly right. Teams have and will continue to fall in love with his glove, but the all-mighty bat still lords above every other tool. In some ways, he reminds me of a bigger version of Jalen Miller from last year. He won’t fall as far as Miller (95th overall pick), but if we could all agree that mid-third is his draft floor then I’d feel a lot better about myself.
The Miller half-comp splits the difference (as a prospect, not as a pro) between two other recent comps for Perez that I see: Francisco Lindor and Oscar Mercado. Long-time readers might remember that I was driving the Mercado bandwagon back in the November before his draft year…
I’m on board with the Mercado as Elvis Andrus 2.0 comps and was out ahead of the “hey, he’s ahead of where Francisco Lindor was at the same stage just a few years ago” talk, so, yeah, you could say I’m a pretty big fan. That came out way smarmier than I would have liked – I’m sorry. The big thing to watch with Mercado this spring will be how he physically looks at the plate; with added strength he could be a serious contender for the top five or so picks, but many of the veteran evaluators who have seen him question whether or not he has the frame to support any additional bulk. Everything else about his game is above-average or better: swing, arm strength, speed, range, hands, release, pitch recognition, instincts.
I bet big on his bat coming around and lost. Mercado went from fifth on my very first board (ten months ahead of the draft, but it still counts) to 81st on the final version to the 57th overall pick of the draft in June. He’s the cautionary tale (for now) of what a young plus glove at shortstop with a questionable bat can turn out to be. On the flip side, there’s Francisco Lindor…
Lindor’s defensive skills really are exemplary and there is no doubt that he’ll stick at shortstop through his first big league contract (at least). As for time/age, well, consider this a preemptive plea in the event Lindor struggles at the plate next season: the guy will be playing his entire first full pro season at just eighteen years old. For reference’s sake, Jimmy Rollins, the player I compared Lindor’s upside to leading up to the draft, played his entire Age-18 season at Low-A in the South Atlantic League and hit .270/.330/.370 in 624 plate appearances. A year like that wouldn’t be a shocker unless he goes all Jurickson Profar, a name Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently evoked after watching Lindor, on the low minors. Either way, I’m much happier with this pick now than I would have been a few months ago. Cleveland saw the opportunity to land a superstar talent at a premium defensive position and went for it, high risk and all.
That pick (and I really shouldn’t say just the pick itself: all of the subsequent development credited to both the individual player and the team should be noted as well) has obviously gone about as well as humanly possible. It’s like the total opposite of what happened to Mercado! Lindor is already a star and looks to be one of the game’s best shortstops for years to come. I’m not ready to hang that kind of outcome on Perez, but I think it’s at least within the realm of realistic paths. I’d say not quite Lindor (15th ranked prospect by me), not quite Mercado (81st), and something more like Miller (46th) is my most honest take on how I generally view Perez at this precise point in time. As the Mercado example shows, drastic change can never be ruled out.
Now we’re back to figuring out who falls behind Perez on the shortstop pecking order. It only makes sense to look first to guys who appear to be safe bets to remain shortstops for the foreseeable future. Grant Bodison might have a claim for most talented all-around shortstop in this class. He’s a little bit older than his peers, so some teams might ding him (fairly, I’d say) for that. Still, he’s a big talent who can really run, throw, and work deep counts. He joins guys like Grae Kessinger, Nolan Williams, and David Hamilton as sure-fire shortstops defensively. I’d put those three in a pile of prospects that I look forward to learning more about this spring. All have been really divisive prospects in my talks with smarter people around the game. You might have one that you really, really like and one that you don’t see as an everyday player, but few I’ve checked in with have said that they are on the fence about many of these guys just yet. It’s love or hate right now, though always with the caveat that “it’s too early.” Kessinger and Hamilton in particular have stood out as being players who elicit strong opinions, good and not so good, from those who have seen them often.
Of course, for all I said about these shortstops being so good because they’ll stick at shortstop, here are a few guys I really like that are far from locks to stick at the six-spot professionally.
I probably like Jaxon Williams more than most. He gets my annual Roman Quinn comp (Alonzo Jones got the honor last year) for his intriguing defensive tools (love him in CF, optimistic about him at short), plus athleticism, and sneaky pop packed into a 5-9, 160 pound frame.
Nicholas Quintana is another prospect who might be better off playing anywhere in the infield (2B, 3B, maybe even C) away from shortstop over the long haul. For now I’ll be stubborn and stick with him as a legitimate shortstop prospect. I understand the concerns about how his average at best foot speed and good but not great athleticism, so I’m banking on superior instincts, positioning, and an arm that allows him to play a bit deeper than most to let me stick for a while. In other words, I’m going into the spring thinking of him as a shortstop and will have to be convinced otherwise by his play to make the switch. The bat plays just about anywhere for me right now, so the further to the right of the defensive spectrum he can handle, the better. Yes, I had to look up if the spectrum goes left to right or right to left.
Lightning round because this has already run longer than any piece on high school players has any right to in December. I’m a huge fan of Gavin Lux and think he could wind up in the first round conversation come June. The fact that he might wind up going behind both Ben Rortvedt and Nate Brown (all Wisconsin prep players) is a beautiful thing for the future of baseball in this country. Hudson Sanchez is another favorite and I’m intrigued to see if he’s still got any significant growing left in him; if so, he might be one of those players who can hang at short, but winds up so close to what we envision the ideal third baseman to be that there’s really no other option but to play him at the hot corner in pro ball. Have to appease the Baseball Gods, after all. Francisco Thomas looks great from what I’ve seen, but don’t sleep on fellow Puerto Rican prospect Jose Miranda. Miranda’s slighter with a bit more projection, but both are really good. Those two guys and Perez and Alexis Torres…love this class out of Puerto Rico this year.
The list begins to break down the further you go – it’s just a collection of talented players at that point with little to no ranking logic behind it – so don’t take the placement of Cayman Richardson, Carter Aldrete, Will Brooks, DeShawn Lookout, and Tyler Fitzgerald as anything but placeholders as we all find out more about each guy this spring. The fact that I could see any of those names ending up as a top five shortstop in this class by June should tell you all you need to know about the depth and quality of this year’s class.
SS Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS/2B Gavin Lux (Indian Trail Academy, Wisconsin)
SS/CF Jaxon Williams (BF Terry HS, Texas)
SS/2B Nicholas Quintana (Arbor View HS, Nevada)
SS Grant Bodison (Mauldin HS, South Carolina)
SS Grae Kessinger (Oxford HS, Mississippi)
SS Nolan Williams (Home School, Kansas)
SS David Hamilton (San Marcos HS, Texas)
SS/3B Hudson Sanchez (Southlake Carroll HS, Texas)
SS Jose Miranda (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS Francisco Thomas (Osceloa HS, Puerto Rico)
SS Hunter Lessard (Sunrise Mountain HS, Arizona)
SS Cam Shepherd (Peachtree Ridge HS, Georgia)
SS Zachary Watson (West Ouachita HS, Louisiana)
SS Jeremy Houston (Mt Carmel HS, Illinois)
SS/2B Alexis Torres (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
SS Cayman Richardson (Hanover HS, Virginia)
SS Austyn Tengan (Cypress HS, California)
SS Carter Aldrete (Montery HS, California)
SS Branden Fryman (Tate HS, Florida)
SS/RHP Daniel Martinez (Kennedy HS, California)
SS Aaron Schunk (The Lovett School, Georgia)
SS Brady Whalen (Union HS, Washington)
SS Cameron Cannon (Mountain Ridge HS, Arizona)
SS Austin Masel (Belmont Hill HS, Massachusetts)
SS/2B Will Brooks (Madison Central HS, Mississippi)
SS/OF DeShawn Lookout (Westmoore HS, Oklahoma)
SS Brandon Chinea (Florida Christian HS, Florida)
SS/2B Jakob Newton (Oakville Trafalgar SS, Ontario)
SS Brian Rey (Deltona HS, Florida)
SS Kevin Welsh (Northern Burlington HS, New Jersey)
SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Rochester HS, Illinois)
SS/RHP Quincy McAfee (Westside HS, Texas)
SS Duncan Pence (Farragut HS, Tennessee)
SS Samad Taylor (Corona HS, California)
SS/3B Josh Hollifield (Weddington HS, North Carolina)
SS Nicholas Novak (Stillwater HS, Minnesota)
SS/OF Jaylon McLaughlin (Santa Monica HS, California)
SS Mitchell Golden (Marietta HS, Georgia)
SS Nick Derr (Sarasota Community HS, Florida)
SS Sal Gozzo (Sheehan HS, Connecticut)
SS Matthew Rule (Kearney HS, Missouri)
SS Brandon Hauswald (University School of Jackson, Tennessee)
SS Ryan Layne (West Jessamine HS, Kentucky)
SS Kevin Rolon (PR Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview: HS Second Basemen
I say it all the time (proof here, here, here, and from yesterday), but it’s true: second base prospects are made and not born. A little more detail for those who don’t click links — no judgment, I get it — from last year…
Adding talent like this at second base is a good thing for the game (obvious statements are obvious, but stay with me), and perhaps an acknowledgment that a) a good second basemen is hard to find, b) sending out lesser players to second base isn’t a sound long-term development strategy, and c) offensively, the two positions up the middle have a freakishly similar threshold of acceptance (2B: .251/.309/.364 [.299 wOBA, 89 wRC+]; SS: .250/.307/.363 [.298 wOBA, 87 wRC+]). We’ve been conditioned to think of second basemen as nothing more than “failed shortstops,” but the perception of how difficult it is to play the position well appears to be changing. I realize there simply aren’t enough athletes to go around to field thirty middle infielders with two “shortstops” playing up the middle, but that shouldn’t (and it doesn’t, obviously) stop teams from trying. Let’s embrace second basemen in the same way we have long showered praise on shortstops; the position is important and difficult to play well and more than just guys who couldn’t hack it at short.
Of course, we are still cheating in a way. A good HS second base prospect is still very hard to find. As much as I look at the top names on this list as primary second basemen, I’d still be surprised if any of the above players wind up actually playing much of the position this upcoming spring for their high school teams. That’s just the nature of high school ball.
Guys who play second base at the amateur level, especially in high school, aren’t typically prospects in the most honest sense of the word. To find the players who will eventually man the keystone at the highest level, look for shortstops, third basemen, and even catchers who won’t stick and judge accordingly.
It’s largely a guessing game when trying to figure out who will wind up at second this early in the process. For example, the names on last year’s initial ranking of HS second basemen are about as impressive as any position group…and yet there’s a chance that none of the top names will wind up as second basemen.
There’s still a chance that Alonzo Jones shows enough defensively to play there at Vanderbilt. Kyler Murray seems like the most likely to wind up at second, but that comes with the fairly significant caveat if he chooses baseball over football in the long run. Cornelius Randolph has already been moved out of the dirt, so scratch him the left fielder off. Jagger Rusconi could conceivably move back, but center field seems like his new home (that’s where he was announced on draft day) despite starting his career at second. Jones, Murray, and Randolph all found themselves on different lists — or, in Murray’s case, a different sport — in May than they were in September. Ethan Paul, Pikai Winchester, and Rusconi (kind of) all survived potential position switches and held on through the winter and spring.
I know I can get a little weird with wanting to look back at previous years when I’m supposed to be talking about the draft to come, so, finally, we’re back to the present day. A comp that isn’t a comp that I can’t shake is Carlos Cortes as the next Forrest Wall. Stylistically, it doesn’t work: the two are very different athletes with different bodies and different levels of defensive aptitude. As hitters, however, I think they bring a lot of the same good stuff to the table. Wall went higher (35th) than all but one HS 2B (LeVon Washington in 2009) since I started the site. I think Cortes can top that in 2016. The other player frequently compared to Cortes is Kolten Wong. Wong went 22nd overall to the Cardinals in 2011. That might be his draft ceiling, but it’s a pretty darn nice one.
I’m not a scout, but I’ve seen enough of Cortes to feel comfortable with sharing my general observations about him with those who are. “Boy, that Cortes sure can hit,” I’d say with confidence. “I’m no scout (note: I say this a lot in these chats), but if that’s not a potential plus hit tool then I’m not sure I know what one is,” I’d continue. Picture this all said with supreme confidence. How can you watch a guy like Cortes and not come away loving his bat? The swing works, there’s tons of bat speed, he’s strong enough to punish mistakes (above-average raw power?), and I’m not sure I saw him take a bad plate appearance all summer. As somebody who is constantly preaching about the importance of having a plan of attack with every at bat, that last part really resonated with me. I was so ready for everybody to agree with me and bask in the glow of the “attaboys” I so richly deserved.
Well, it didn’t happen. To say that others like Cortes’ hit tool way less than I do (and I’m not special, by the way: lots of smarter internet folk than I love Cortes’ bat) is an understatement. That’s not a universal belief – few draft thoughts are, especially in December – but what I had figured to be one of the draft’s best singular tools is a bit more of a divisive topic than expected. So if you come here seeking the value of the majority, then think of Cortes as a wait-and-see early round pick. If you’re here for my own amateur opinion, then start printing those “Carlos Cortes: First Day MLB Draft Pick” memorabilia t-shirts now.
(This analysis lacks nuance as it only focuses on Cortes’ hit tool. One could like his hit tool a lot and still view him as a tough player to profile because of his unique defensive skill set. Some might see him as a future utility player who projects as a tweener without a true position. Others could view him as a wait-and-see prospect not because of his bat but because of the hope he can play behind the plate at the next level. He’s a tough guy to judge even before you factor in the varied opinions about his bat. Fun player to track and evaluate, though.)
In almost any other year (and in many other lists that don’t include Cortes with the second base prospects), Morgan McCullough would be a fine choice for the top spot. He can run, defend, and, most importantly, hit. If it all works he’s a regular at second for a long time, though all of the “there is no such thing as a teenage second base prospect” caveats apply. As much as I like McCullough – and I really do, honest – he strikes me as the kind of guy who falls below where he should go and winds up having to prove himself to pro guys all over again in college. I hope I’m wrong. Will Proctor and Cole Stobbe both might interest teams as potential shortstops at the highest level. Alexander Santos is one of the many New Jersey products in this year’s class with a shot to go in the top ten rounds and make an impact on pro ball. In what might be one of those draft quirks that only interests me, there is or will be a New Jersey prospect on each of these early HS lists except first base.
2B/OF Carlos Cortes (Oviedo HS, Florida)
2B Morgan McCullough (West Seattle HS, Washington)
2B/RHP Will Proctor (Mira Costa HS, California)
2B/SS Shane Martinez (John North HS, California)
2B/SS Alexander Santos (Don Bosco Prep, New Jersey)
2B/SS Cole Stobbe (Millard West HS, Nebraska)
2B Ben Baird (Agoura HS, California)
2B/SS Kobe Lopez (Archbishop Edward McCarthy HS, Florida)
2B/OF Austin Todd (Round Rock HS, Texas)
2B Ryan Reynolds (Ouachita Christian HS, Louisiana)
2B Nathan Blakeney (Wesleyan Christian Academy, North Carolina)
2B Alex Brewer (Forrest HS, Tennessee)
2B Tyler Malone (Woodcreek HS, California)
2B/3B Riley King (Collins Hill HS, Texas)
2B/SS Brigham Mooney (Blue Springs South HS, Missouri)
2B/3B Michael Feliz (IMG Academy, Florida)
2B/SS Paul Benitez (Lake Nona HS, Florida)
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview: HS First Basemen
Drawing a line from high school hitter likely to wind up at first base in the pros to actual professional first base prospect isn’t easy. In much the same way second base prospects are made and not born, so too are first base prospects. Corey Zangari, the second HS 1B selected in last year’s draft, was listed on my final pre-draft board as a primary RHP and a potential catcher otherwise. That was only after going unranked (whoops!) on my initial September list. Meanwhile there’s Brandt Stallings, the second HS 1B listed on my original personal board from mid-September, who went undrafted and is now a freshman enrolled at Georgia Tech. Hey, it’s more art than science when you’re trying to guess prospect futures eight months out.
As you can see below, each of the top five names listed play a secondary position in addition to first base. It’s not out of the question that a pro team will decide to Schwarber (that’s a verb now, BTW) TJ Collett into continue playing some behind the plate. Ulysses Cantu’s profile might be problematic enough at first base – there’s not too many 6-0, 225 pound RHH first basemen out there – to keep trying him at third or catcher. Maybe Christian Jones proves himself athletic enough for some to fake it in the outfield for a few years. Looking back on this list at a later date will be as interesting for where these players wind up defensively as much as how high they are drafted.
Whether he can hang as a left fielder or not, I like the bat of Jones enough to have him in the top spot for now. The approach, power upside, and bat speed are all clearly evident, plus he has that impossible to quantify (without the benefit of Trackman, of course) consistent loud bat-to-ball contact that just sounds different than that of his peers. I like the Perfect Game comparison of Jonathan Singleton a lot.
You want some really high praise for Cantu as a hitter? I’ve now heard the name Youkilis mentioned twice in conversations about him. That’s big time. Kevin Millar was another name that came up, as did a fun blast from the past Conor Jackson. I really like the Jackson comp and not just because I really liked him as a player. When was the last time you heard his name mentioned? He was a pretty interesting player for a while there. I liked that guy. Good talk.
Collett got a Josh Naylor comp from Perfect Game. Naylor got a lot of Dan Vogelbach comps from various places last year. If the transitive property holds, Collett is Vogelbach, right? In all seriousness, that’s not a terrible comp for Collett, at least when viewed as a reference point for what style of hitter he could be. Collett has obvious power, but also a better feel for hitting than most oversized teenage sluggers. I don’t think he’s a catcher, but he’s a hitter and that’ll play.
Walker Robbins looms large as a slick-fielding defender who has been described to me by multiple sources as the highest upside stick among this group. I haven’t seen or heard enough about him yet to put him higher than the three guys above him (based on my confidence of the present power of those other hitters), but I’m excited to track him this spring. Joey Wentz has the frame and lefthanded power you see out of big league regulars at first. Works for me.
I’ll slip this in at the end after you’ve presumably read the five hundred or so words about these prospects already. Something to keep in mind when considering high school first base prospects each June: fewer high school first base prospects were selected in last year’s draft than in any since I started this site in 2009. On the bright side, of the eleven HS first basemen drafted in 2015 four were selected within the draft’s top ten rounds; that’s good for a second-place tie for most since 2009.
1B/OF Christian Jones (Federal Way HS, Washington)
1B/RHP Ulysses Cantu (Boswell HS, Texas)
1B/C TJ Collett (Terre Haute North Vigo HS, Indiana)
1B/LHP Walker Robbins (George County HS, Mississippi)
1B/LHP Joey Wentz (Shawnee Mission East HS, Kansas)
1B Spencer Brickhouse (Zebulon HS, North Carolina)
1B Bryant Packard (DH Conley HS, North Carolina)
1B Cole Zabowski (Lawrenceville HS, Georgia)
1B Easton Bents (Grants Pass HS, Oregon)
1B/LHP Vinnie Pasquantino (James River HS, Virginia)
1B/OF Chris Winkel (Amity Regional Senior HS, Connecticut)
1B Jaquez Williams (East Coweta HS, Georgia)
1B Andru Summerall (Lake Park HS, Florida)
1B Zach Zientarski (Boca Raton Community HS, Florida)
1B Cuba Bess (Fruita Monument HS, Colorado)
2016 MLB Draft Prospect Preview – HS Catchers
On last fall’s initial list of 2015 HS catching prospects of note, first prep catcher off the board and eventual first round pick Tyler Stephenson was not mentioned. Keep that in mind as you read my first published take of the 2016 HS catching class. Whether that means that I don’t know what I’m talking about, teenage catching prospects are unusually difficult to project, or something in between is entirely up to you. After whiffing on Stephenson last September, know that my feelings won’t be hurt if you quit reading now. Better yet, I’d advise using the list below as something closer to a directory of names to know and learn more about than a ranking of great consequence.
Before we get to the 2016 class, a few general thoughts from last year’s research about what we should expect from any given year’s HS catching class using recent history as a guide…
All of the caveats from above (historical trends aren’t more important than individual prospects being the most relevant and most important here) apply, but taking into everything else into account we can guess that the following will wind up as true in 2015…
1) The first high school catching prospect should expect to be off the board around the mid-20s in the first round.
2) There will be other quality catching prospects (perhaps up to five) off the board through round four, but not so much after that point.
3) Only two of said prospects should be expected to have meaningful MLB careers as catchers.
So, how did we do with those predictions? Not great, Bob!
1) Stephenson went to Cincinnati with the 11th overall pick, so I don’t think we can count this as a successful prediction.
2) Only three HS catchers were selected in the top two rounds (Stephenson, Chris Betts, and Lucas Herbert). If we expand our range a bit, we can add a fourth with Justin Cohen going in the sixth round. Four guys through six rounds isn’t exactly “up to five” guys through four rounds, but it isn’t too far off either
3) We’ll see! The fact that the class had a pretty clear gap between Stephenson/Betts and the field lends some credence to this idea, though I think it’s almost as likely that one of those two plus a catcher we’re not hyping up much at the moment wind up as those two catchers with “meaningful MLB careers.”
My very lazy research only shows that Stephenson, Betts, Herbert, Cohen, Kerby Camacho, Dalton Blumenfeld, Cody Brickhouse, Joenny Vazquez, Jorge Martinez, and Andrew Noviello signed this past draft. That’s just ten HS catchers added to the minor league pool this year out of the thirty-one drafted. Unsigned guys like Joe Davis, Elih Marrero, Wyatt Cross, Garrett Wolforth, Nick Dalesandro, Michael Benson, Michael Hickman, and Domenic DeRenzo (to name just a few) all figure to make their mark in the pros after first doing some damage in college ball. Benson and Hickman are in junior college ball and will get a shot in the draft next year while the other top names (to my knowledge) are all at four-year schools and eligible to be re-drafted in 2018.
Anyway, as written at the top a lot can change between now and June – again last year’s early HS catching post compared to the May update certainly shows – but Herbert Iser is the best current two-way prep catcher in this class. His power is as good if not better than any of his peers, he’s greatly improved his approach as hitter over the last calendar year, and his defense remains a clear strength. In many ways his prospect profile reads like Chris Betts’ from a year ago.
On the same top tier as Iser are Bradley Debo, Cooper Johnson, Ben Rortvedt, and Michael Amditis. I don’t think having any of those five as your top guy is wrong; in fact, I think that logic can even be extended past that to include names like Andy Yerzy, Sam Ferri, Thomas Dillard, and Max Guzman. That’s outstanding depth at the top of this class, all before we get to personal favorites like Blake Sabol, Zack Smith, Andrew Miller, and Jacob Matheny.
I mention an Iser/Betts connection, but smarter minds than I (namely the guys at Perfect Game) have used Betts as a comp for Debo. I think physically that makes more sense, so I won’t quibble. Debo stands out for his bat above all else, but he’s another solid all-around two-way player who is a catcher all the way. That’s a clear point of strength in this class: these high school catchers will actually catch at the pro level. The wildly athletic, rocket-armed Johnson takes that point to the extreme. My immediate though when watching him was Austin Hedges, but others mentioned Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli as names to consider. I like it as a spectrum ranging from high (Martin), medium (Cervelli), and low (Hedges) potential outcomes, but your mileage might vary. Having Rortvedt fourth might look really foolish by June; heck, it might look silly to many here in December. He’s right there with Iser when it comes to blending the offensive and defensive sides of the game into one potential long-time above-average big league starter package.
Let’s get this out of the way up front: no potential top five round prospect is ever truly under the radar despite the insistence of the paid experts. I won’t insult anybody’s intelligence and call anybody who falls within the top dozen or so prospects within a position group a “sleeper.” Still, there are guys lower down the list who are intriguing in their own way.
Despite a strong showing at the Under Armour All-America Game, Andrew Yerzy might be a little bit underscouted this spring relative to his peers. Lovely as it may be in the springtime, not too many scouts typically beat a path to York Mills Collegiate Institute in Ontario. He’s more advanced as a hitter than one might assume given his background and a big personal favorite. Forget limiting the pool to just catchers, Sam Ferri and Zack Smith rank among the best athletes in the entire class. That’s a big statement made bigger by the amount of weight many (myself included) place on athleticism at the catcher spot.
C Herbert Iser (Killian HS, Florida)
C Bradley Debo (Orange HS, North Carolina)
C Cooper Johnson (Carmel Catholic HS, Illinois)
C Ben Rortvedt (Verona Area HS, Wisconsin)
C Michael Amditis (Boca Raton Community HS, Florida)
C Andy Yerzy (York Mills Collegiate Institute, Ontario)
C/RHP Sam Ferri (Notre Dame Prep, Illinois)
C Thomas Dillard (Briarcrest Christian HS, Mississippi)
C/3B Max Guzman (St. Brendan HS, Florida)
C/OF Blake Sabol (Aliso Niguel HS, California)
C Jake Sullivan (Durant HS, Florida)
C Kyle McCann (Lambert HS, Georgia)
C Korey Lee (Vista HS, California)
C Mario Feliciano (Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C Brandon Martorano (Christian Brothers Academy, New Jersey)
C/RHP Zack Smith (Eastern Wayne HS, North Carolina)
C/3B Pedro Pages (Gulliver Schools, Florida)
C Andrew Miller (Frisco HS, Texas)
C Jared Herron (Trinity Prep HS, Florida)
C Nicholas Kahle (Chaminade Prep, California)
C Tyson Zanski (Grand Junction HS, Colorado)
C Jacob Matheny (Westminster Christian Academy, Missouri)
C/1B Thomas Johns (Clay-Chalkville HS, Alabama)
C Tyler Haselman (Liberty HS, Washington)
C Keelyn Johnson (Pineville HS, Louisiana)
C Dalton Hill (Dunbar HS, Kentucky)
C Andy Thomas (Murrieta Mesa HS, California)
C Anthony Mulrine (St Thomas Aquinas HS, Florida)
C Marshall Skinner (Cypress Ranch HS, Texas)
C Jacob Kalusniak (Francis Howell North HS, Missouri)
C Santino Miozzi (Lake Nona HS, Florida)
C Mike Kilner (Padua Franciscan HS, Ohio)
C Zachary Humphreys (Midlothian HS, Texas)
C/OF Marc Coffers (Barron Collier HS, Florida)
C Christian Leonard (St. Thomas More HS, Louisiana)
C Beau Orlando (Cy-Fair HS, Texas)
C Tyler Duvall (Lebanon HS, Ohio)
C/OF Ryan Orr (La Costa Canyon HS, California)
C/3B Drake Frix (Darlington HS, Georgia)
C Brian Wicker (Ponca City HS, Oklahoma)
C Logan Foster (Lincoln Southwest HS, Nebraska)
C/3B Sam Huff (Arcadia HS, Arizona)
C Jaxx Groshans (Magnolia HS, Texas)
C Luke Berryhill (River Ridge HS, California)
C Cole Jackson (Sandy Creek HS, Georgia)
C Austin Biggar (Parkview HS, Georgia)
C Maverick Handley (Mullen HS, Colorado)
C/RHP Peyton Henry (Pleasant Grove HS, Utah)
C Alan Marrero (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
C Tyler Gordon (Simeon Career Academy, Illinois)
C Paul Gozzo (Sheehan HS, Connecticut)
C/2B Rankin Woley (The Westminster Schools, Georgia)
2016 MLB Draft Preview – College Prospects
I don’t typically get into rankings this early in the process because doing it the right way as a research/writing staff of one takes me literally hundreds of hours. Realistically putting together what I feel is representative of my better stuff just hasn’t been possible in the past unless I pushed other micro baseball projects — for the site and elsewhere — aside and instead looked took the time to cover a nation’s worth of prospects on the macro level. Having a draft site that spends more time on players on the fringes who may or may not wind up drafted at all while failing to address the prospects at the top of the food chain seems a bit silly, so I’m trying to balance things out a little bit better this year. There will still be lots of the usual draft minutiae I enjoy so much, but a rededicated focus on the draft’s first day just makes sense. With all of this in mind I put other baseball duties on hold for the last ten or so days to put this list together. It’s imperfect, but I like it as a starting point. Some notes on what you’ll see below…
*** I didn’t include any non-D1 players at this point because I haven’t yet had the time to go as deep into other levels of competition and junior college ball just yet. Nick Shumpert would have made the top fifty for sure. Lucas Erceg likely would have been considered. After a quick skim of my notes, I’d say Kep Brown, Tekwaan Whyte, Ryan January, Ethan Skender, Liam Scafariello, Jesus Gamez, Curtis Taylor, Willie Rios, Shane Billings, Brett Morales, Hunter Tackett, Devin Smeltzer, and Tyson Miller would be just a few of the names also in the mix for me right now. I said it a lot last year, but it bears repeating: I’d love to find the time/energy to go deeper with non-D1 baseball this year. The finite number of hours I have to devote to this site might get in the way, but I’m going to try.
*** This is going to sound bad and I apologize in advance, but I don’t believe I left anybody off that I intended to include. It’s possible, of course, but I don’t think that’s the case here. A ton of really, really good prospects, many of whom will be future big league players, didn’t make the cut as of yet. It’s not personal, obviously. I would have loved to include any player that even remotely interested me, but I had to have a cut-off point somewhere. If you think I whiffed on somebody, I’m happy to listen. Reasonable minds can disagree.
*** There is no consensus top player in this college class. The hitter at the top could wind up out of the first round by June. The top pitcher listed has medical red flags reminiscent of Michael Matuella last season. And — SPOILER ALERT — the top overall player in this class isn’t included on the list below. There are players ranked in the twenties that may be in your top five and there are players in the thirties that may not crack somebody else’s top seventy-five. It’s a fun year that way.
*** If I had to predict what player will actually go number one this June, I’d piggy-back on what others have already said and put my vote in for AJ Puk. The Phillies are my hometown team and while I’m not as well-connected to their thinking as I am with a few other teams, based on the snippets of behind the scenes things I’ve heard (not much considering it’s October, but it’s not like they aren’t thinking about it yet) and the common sense reporting elsewhere (they lean towards a quick-moving college player, preferably a pitcher) all point to Puk. He’s healthy, a good kid (harmless crane climbing incident aside), and a starting pitcher all the way. Puk joining Alfaro, Knapp, Crawford, Franco, Williams, Quinn, Herrera, Altherr, Nola, Thompson, Eickhoff, Eflin, and Giles by September 2017 makes for a pretty intriguing cost-controlled core.
*** The words that go along with the rankings are a bit more positive than what long-time readers might be used to. My early take is that this appears to be an above-average draft, but a friend who saw an early draft (no pun intended) of this told me that 2016 must be an incredibly talented group of amateurs. He said that reading through led him to believe that every pitcher is a future big league starter and every hitter is a future above-average regular. Guilty. I admit that I generally skew positive at this site (elsewhere…not so much) because I like baseball, enjoy focusing on what young players do well, and believe highlighting the good can help grow the college game, but being fair is always the ultimate goal. That said, there will be plenty of time to get deeper into each prospect’s individual strengths and weaknesses over the next seven or so months. In October a little extra dose of positivity is nice.
With no further ado, here are the 2016 MLB Draft’s top fifty prospects (with a whole lot more names to know beyond that)…
(Fine, just a bit more ado: A very rough HS list and maybe a combined overall ranking will come after Jupiter…)
- Mercer JR OF Kyle Lewis
The popular comp for Lewis has been Alfonso Soriano (originated at D1 Baseball, I believe), but I see more of Yasiel Puig in his game. He’s an honest five-tool player with a rapidly improving approach at the plate. There’s still some roughness around the edges there, but if it clicks then he’s a monster. There’s obvious risk in the profile, but it’s easy to be excited by somebody who legitimately gets better with every watch.
- Oklahoma JR RHP Alec Hansen
Hansen would rank first overall (college, not overall) if not for some recent reports of forearm troubles. His injury history probably should have been enough to temper enthusiasm for his nasty stuff (huge FB and chance for two plus offspeed pitches), but the upside is just that exciting. The popular Gerrit Cole makes sense as Hansen is a big guy (6-7, 235) with outstanding athleticism who holds his plus velocity late into games.
- Florida JR OF Buddy Reed
Reed’s relative newness to playing the game full-time makes his already considerable upside all the more intriguing. More reps against quality pitching could turn the dynamic center fielder (plus range, plus speed, plus arm) into the top overall pick.
- Oregon rSO LHP Matt Krook
This may be a touch more speculative that some of the other names on the list since Krook missed the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, but I’m buying all the Krook shares I can right now. He came back and impressed on the Cape enough to warrant consideration as a potential 1-1 riser. There’s no squaring up his fastball and there’s more than enough offspeed (CB and CU) to miss bats (12 K/9 in 45 freshman innings). He’s not as physical as AJ Puk, but the more advanced secondaries give him the edge for now.
- Florida JR LHP/1B AJ Puk
Extension, deception, and power would be three words that come immediately to mind when describing Puk. He’s every bit of 6-7, 225 with a delivery that hides the ball damn well. His power comes both with his left arm (92-96, 98 peak) and at the plate (he’d quickly be among the better hitting pitchers in the game), so it’s no big shock that some guy on the internet (that’s me) sees some similarities between him and the prospect version of Madison Bumgarner.
- Wake Forest JR 1B/RHP Will Craig
Do you like power? How about patience? What about a guy with power, patience, and the athleticism to pull off collegiate two-way duty? For everybody who missed on AJ Reed the first time around, Will Craig is here to give you a second chance. I won’t say he’ll be the first base prospect that finally tests how high a first base prospect can go in a post-PED draft landscape, but if he has a big enough junior season…
- Louisville JR OF Corey Ray
If you prefer Ray to Lewis and Reed, you’re not wrong. They are all different flavors of a similar overall quality. Like those guys, Ray can do enough of everything well on the diamond to earn the much coveted label of “five-tool player.” The most enthusiastic comp I got from him was a “more compact Kirk Gibson.” That’s a thinker.
- Arkansas JR RHP Zach Jackson
We’ll know a lot more about Buddy Reed (and other SEC hitters) by June after he runs the gauntlet of SEC pitching. In addition to teammate AJ Puk, I’ve got three other SEC arms with realistic top ten draft hopes. Jackson’s chance for rising up to the 1-1 discussion depends almost entirely on his delivery and command. If those two things can be smoothed out this spring — they often go hand-in-hand — then his fastball (90-94, 96 peak), curve (deadly), and change (inconsistent but very promising) make him a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher.
- Georgia JR RHP Robert Tyler
Just about everything said about Jackson can be said about Tyler. The Georgia righthander has the bigger fastball (90-96, 100 peak) and his two offspeed pitches are flip-flopped (love the change, still tinkering with his spike curve), so getting his delivery worked out enough to convince onlookers that he can hold up over 30 plus starts a year could make him the first college arm off the board.
- Mississippi State JR RHP Dakota Hudson
Hudson is the biggest mystery man out of the SEC Four Horsemen (TM pending…with apologies to all the Vandy guys and Kyle Serrano) because buying on him is buying a largely untested college reliever (so far) with control red flags and a limited overall track record. Those are all fair reasons to doubt him right now, but when Hudson has it working there are few pitchers who look more dominant. His easy plus 86-92 cut-slider is right up there with Jackson’s curve as one of the best breaking balls in the entire class.
- Tennessee JR 2B/3B Nick Senzel
Arguably the safest of this year’s potential first round college bats, Senzel has electric bat speed, a patient approach, and as good a hit tool as any player listed. His defensive gifts are almost on that same level and his power upside separates him from the rest of what looks like a pretty intriguing overall college group of second basemen.
- Notre Dame JR 2B/3B Cavan Biggio
Without having seen every Notre Dame game the past two years — I’m good, but not that good — one might be confused as to how a player with Biggio’s pedigree and collection of scouting accolades (“line drive machine; born to hit; great pitch recognition; great approach, patient and aggressive all at once”…and that’s just what has been written here) could hit .250ish through two college seasons. I say we all agree to chalk it up to bad BABIP luck and eagerly anticipate a monster junior season that puts him squarely back in the first round mix where he belongs.
- Nebraska JR OF Ryan Boldt
World Wide Wes said it best: “You can’t chase the night.” Of course that doesn’t stop me from trying to chase missed players from previous draft classes. Nobody was talking about Andrew Benintendi last year at this time — in part because of the confusion that comes with draft-eligible true sophomores, but still — so attempting to get a head-start on the “next Benintendi” seems like a thing to do. As a well-rounded center fielder with a sweet swing and impressive plate coverage, Boldt could be that guy.
- Vanderbilt JR OF/1B Bryan Reynolds
CTRL C “Ryan Boldt paragraph”, CTRL V “Ryan Boldt paragraph.” Reynolds also reminds me somewhat of Kyle Lewis in the way that both guys have rapidly improved their plate discipline in ways that haven’t yet shown up consistently on the stat sheet. If or when it does, Reynolds could join Lewis as a potential future impact big league outfielder.
- Virginia JR RHP Connor Jones
Jones, the number one guy on a list designed to serve the same purpose as the one created over seven months ago, hasn’t actually done anything to slip this far down the board; competition at the top this year is just that fierce. I like guys with fastballs that move every which way but straight, so Jones’s future looks bright from here. His mid-80s splitter has looked so good at times that he’s gotten one of my all-time favorite cross-culture comps: Masahiro Tanaka.
- Stanford JR RHP Cal Quantrill
A case could be made that Quantrill is the most complete, pro-ready college arm in this year’s class. The fact that one could make that claim even after losing almost an entire season of development speaks to the kind of mature talent we’re talking about. Pitchability is a nebulous thing that isn’t easy to pin down, but you know it when you see it. Quantrill has it. He also has a plus changeup and a fastball with serious giddy-up.
- Virginia JR C Matt Thaiss
Comps aren’t everybody’s cup of tea, but I’ve always defended them because they provide the needed frame of reference for prospects to gain some modicum of public recognition and leap past the indignity of being known only as soulless, nameless abstract ideas on a page until they have the good fortune of reaching the big leagues. Matt Thaiss played HS ball not too far off from where I live, so I saw him a few times before he packed things up and headed south to Virginia. I never could find the words to describe him just right to friends who were curious as to why I’d drive over an hour after work to see a random high school hitter. It wasn’t until Baseball America dropped a Brian McCann comp on him that they began to understand. You can talk about his power upside, mature approach, and playable defense all you want, but there’s something extra that crystallizes in your mind when a player everybody knows enters the conversation. Nobody with any sense expects Thaiss to have a carbon copy of McCann’s excellent professional career, but the comp gives you some general idea of what style of player is being discussed.
- Clemson JR C Chris Okey
Okey doesn’t have quite the same thunder in his bat as Thaiss, but his strong hands, agile movements behind the plate, and average or better arm give him enough ammo to be in the mix for first college catching off the board. The days of the big, strong-armed, plus power, and questionable contact catcher seem to be dwindling as more and more teams appear willing to go back to placing athleticism atop their list of desired attributes for young catching prospects. Hard to say that’s wrong based on where today’s speed and defense style of game looks like it’s heading.
- California JR RHP Daulton Jefferies
To have Jefferies, maybe my favorite draft-eligible college pitcher to watch, this low says way more about the quality at the top of this year’s class then his long-term pro ability. Jefferies brings three potential above-average to plus pitches to the mound on any given night. I like the D1 Baseball comparison to Walker Buehler, last year’s 24th overall pick. Getting Jefferies in a similar spot this year would be something to be excited about.
- LSU JR OF Jake Fraley
In a class with potential superstars like Lewis, Reed, and Ray roaming outfields at the top, it would be easy to overlook Fraley, a tooled-up center fielder with lightning in his wrists, an unusually balanced swing, and the patient approach of a future leadoff hitter. Do so at your own discretion. Since I started the site in 2009 there’s been at least one LSU outfielder drafted every year. That includes five top-three round picks (Mitchell, Landry, Mahtook, Jones, and Stevenson) in seven classes. Outfielder U seems poised to keep the overall streak alive and make the top three round run a cool six out of eight in 2016.
- Vanderbilt rSO RHP Jordan Sheffield
It’s a lazy comp, sure, but the possibility that Sheffield could wind up as this year’s Dillon Tate has stuck with me for almost a full calendar year. He’s undersized yet athletic and well-built enough to handle a starter’s workload, plus he has the three pitches (FB, CU, CB) to get past lineups multiple times. If his two average-ish offspeed that flash above-average to plus can more consistently get there, he’s a potential top ten guy no matter his height.
- Wright State JR C Sean Murphy
Watching Murphy do his thing behind the plate is worth the price of admission alone. We’re talking “Queen Bee” level arm strength, ample lateral quicks on balls in the dirt, and dependable hands with an ever-improving ability to frame borderline pitches. He’s second in the class behind Jake Rogers defensively — not just as a catcher, but arguably at any position — but with enough bat (unlike Rogers) to project as a potential above-average all-around regular in time. I expect the battle for top college catching prospect to be closely contested all year with Thaiss, Okey, and Murphy all taking turns atop team-specific draft boards all spring long.
- Texas A&M JR OF Nick Banks
If you’ve ever wondered what the right field prototype looked liked, take a gander at the star outfielder in College Station. The combination of speed, strength, power, and one of the country’s most accurate and formidable outfield arms make taking the chance on him continuing to figure things out as a hitter well worth a potential first round pick.
- Tennessee JR RHP Kyle Serrano
Serrano is the second guy on this list that reminds me of Walker Buehler from last year, though I still like my own Jarrod Parker comp best. He’s transitioned into more of a sinker/slider pitcher as he’s refined his breaking ball and lost some feel for his change over the years, but as a firm believer in the idea that once you have a skill you own it forever I remain intrigued as to how good he could be once he learns to effectively harness his changeup once again.
- Kentucky JR 2B/OF JaVon Shelby
In yet another weird example of an odd comp that I haven’t been able to shake all year, there’s something about JaVon Shelby’s game that takes me back to watching Ian Happ at Cincinnati. Maybe the offensive game isn’t as far along at similar developmental points, but Shelby’s odds at sticking in the dirt have always been higher.
- Miami JR 1B/C Zack Collins
If I had more confidence that Collins could play regularly behind the plate at the highest level, he’s shoot up the board ten spots (minimum) in a hurry. He’s a fastball-hunting power-hitting force of nature at the plate with the potential for the kind of prodigious home run blasts that make Twitter lose control of its collective mind. I stand by the Travis Hafner ceiling comp from last December.
- Arizona JR 3B Bobby Dalbec
The good popular comp here is Troy Glaus. The less good comp that I’ve heard is Chris Dominguez. The truth, as it so often does, will likely fall in the middle somewhere.
- Georgia JR OF Stephen Wrenn
Wrenn is a burner who has looked good enough in center field at times that you wonder if he could handle all three outfield spots by himself at the same time. He’s an athletic outfielder who remains raw at the plate despite two years of regular playing time — making him seemingly one of forty-five of the type in this year’s top fifty — so you’re gambling on skills catching up to the tools. The fact that his glove alone will get him to the big leagues mitigates some of the risk with his bat.
- Winthrop JR LHP Matt Crohan
Premium fastball velocity from the left side is always a welcomed sight. Crohan can get it up to the upper-90s (sits 90-94) with a pair of worthwhile offspeed pitches (mid-80s cut-slider and a slowly improving change). He’s got the size, command, and smarts to pitch in a big league rotation for a long time.
- Louisville SR RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Much electronic ink was spilled on Funkhouser last season, so I’ll be brief: he’s good. It’s unclear how good — I’d say more mid-rotation than ace, but reasonable minds may disagree — but he’s good. Of the many comps I threw out for him last year my favorite remains Jordan Zimmermann. If he can up his command and control game like Zimmermann, then he could hit that mid-rotation ceiling and keep pushing upwards.
- Louisville JR RHP Zack Burdi
Of all the rankings outside of the top ten, this is the one that could make me look dumbest by June. Burdi is a really tough evaluation for him right now because even after multiple years of being on the prospect stage it’s unclear (to me, at least) what role will eventually lead to him maximizing his ability. I’m reticent to throw him in the bullpen right away — many do this because of his last name, I think — because he’s shown the kind of diversity of stuff to stay in a rotation. Whether or not he has the command or consistency remain to be seen. Still, those concerns aren’t all that concerning when your fallback plan means getting to go full-tilt in the bullpen as you unleash a triple-digit fastball on hitters also guarding against two impressive offspeed pitches (CU, SL). It’s almost a win-win for scouting directors at this point. If he has a great spring, then you can believe him in as a starter long-term and grade him accordingly. If there’s still doubt, then you can drop him some but keep a close eye on his slip while being ready to pounce if he falls outside of those first few “don’t screw up or you’re fired” picks. You don’t want to spend a premium pick on a potential reliever, clearly, but if he falls outside of the top twenty picks or so then all of a sudden that backup bullpen plan is good enough to return value on your investment.
- Samford JR OF Heath Quinn
Just what this class needed: another outfielder loaded with tools that comes with some question marks about the utility of his big-time power because he’s still learning how to hit against serious pitching.
- Miami JR OF Willie Abreu
Nick Banks gets a lot of deserved attention for being a potential early first round pick — somebody even once called him the “right field prototype,” if you can believe it — but Willie Abreu’s tool set is on the same shelf. There’s power, mobility, arm strength, and athleticism to profile as a damn fine regular if it all clicks.
- TCU rJR RHP Mitchell Traver
Traver was featured plenty on this site last year as a redshirt-sophomore, so that gives me the chance to rehash the three fun comps I’ve gotten for him over the years: Gil Meche, Nick Masset, and Dustin McGowan. Based on years of doing this — so, entirely anecdotal evidence and not hard data — I’ve found that bigger pitchers (say, 6-6 or taller) have an equal (if not higher) bust rate when compared to the smaller guys (6-0ish) that are typically associated with being higher risk. There are always exceptions and years of scouting biases has created a flawed sample to choose from, but pitching seems like a chore best done for smaller bodies that are easier to consistently contort into the kind of unnatural throwing motions needed to withstand chucking balls 90+ MPH over and over and over again. Maintaining body control, tempo, and command at a certain size can be done, but it sure as heck isn’t easy. Like almost everybody, I see a big pitcher and get excited because with size also often comes velocity, extension, and the intangible intimidation factor. Maybe it’s time to start balancing that excitement with some of the known risks that come with oversized pitchers.
- Maryland JR RHP Mike Shawaryn
A long draft season could change this, but Shawaryn looks all the world to be a rock solid bet to wind up a mid-rotation big league starting pitcher. Never a star, but consistently useful for years going forward.
- Louisiana JR RHP Reagan Bazar
Bazar is one of the bigger gambles to grace this list. He hasn’t done enough yet at Louisiana to warrant such a placement, but when he’s feeling it his stuff (mid- to upper-90s FB, promising low-80s SL) can suffocate even good hitting. Yes, I realize ranking the 6-7, 250+ pound righthander this high undermines a lot of what I said directly above. I’ll always be a sucker for big velocity and Bazar hitting 100+ certainly qualifies.
- Rice rSO RHP Jon Duplantier
Athleticism, projection, and wildness currently define Duplantier as a prospect. Key elements or not, those facets of his game shouldn’t obfuscate how strong his big league starter stuff is. That’s a mixed bag of qualities, but there’s clearly more good than bad when it comes to his future.
- San Diego SO 2B/SS Bryson Brigman
Middle infielders are always a need for big league clubs, so it only makes sense that the better ones at the amateur level get pushed up ahead of where you might want to first slot them in when simply breaking down tools. The extra credit for Brigman’s smooth fielding action is deserved, as is the acclaim he gets for his mature approach and sneaky pop.
- Vanderbilt JR LHP John Kilichowski
Vanderbilt pumps out so much quality pitching that it’s almost boring to discuss their latest and greatest. Kilichowski (and Sheffield and Bowden and Stone) find themselves sandwiched between last year’s special group of arms and a freshman class that includes Donny Everett and Chandler Day. The big lefty has impeccable control, easy velocity (86-92, 94 peak), and the exact assortment of offspeed pitches (CB, SL, and CU, all average or better) needed to keep hitters off-balance in any count. It’s not ace-type stuff, but it’s the kind of overall package that can do damage in the middle of a rotation for a long time.
- Oklahoma State JR LHP Garrett Williams
The scene on Friday night for the Hansen/Williams matchup is going to be something special for college ball. Scouts in attendance will likewise be pretty pleased that they can do some one-stop shopping for not only a potential 1-1 guy in Hansen but also a real threat to wind up in the first round in Williams. Continued maturation of Williams’s curve (a weapon already), change (getting there), and control (work in progress) could get him there.
- Nevada JR OF/LHP Trenton Brooks
Brooks is a two-way athlete good enough to play center field or keep progressing as a lefthanded reliever with a plus approach and an all-out style of play. How can you not like a guy like that?
- Coastal Carolina JR SS/2B Michael Paez
Our first college shortstop, finally. Paez hasn’t yet gotten a lot of national prospect love that I know of, but he’s deserving. He can hit, run, and sneak the occasional ball over the fence all while being steady enough in the field that I don’t know why you’d have to move him off of shortstop. I wouldn’t quite call it a comp, but my appreciate for Paez resembles what I felt about Blake Trahan in last year’s draft.
- Oklahoma JR 3B/RHP Sheldon Neuse
Neuse could still fulfill the promise many (myself included) saw in him during his excellent freshman season back when he looked like a potential Gold Glove defender at third with the kind of bat you’d happily stick in the middle of the order. He could also get more of a look this spring on the mound where he can properly put his mid-90s heat and promising pair of secondary offerings (SL, CU) to use. Or he could have something of a repeat of his 2015 season leaving us unsure how good he really is and thinking of him more of a second to fifth round project (a super talented one, mind you) than a first round prospect.
- Wake Forest JR 2B/OF Nate Mondou
Second basemen with power, feel for hitting, and an idea at the plate are damn useful players. The comp I got a few weeks ago on Mondou is about as topical as it gets: Daniel Murphy.
- Kent State JR LHP Eric Lauer
I loved Andrew Chafin as a prospect. Everybody who has been around the Kent State program for a while that I’ve talked to agree that Lauer is better. I can see it: he’s more athletic, has better fastball command, and comes with a cleaner medical history.
- Florida JR 1B Pete Alonso
The Gators have so much talent that it’s inevitable that even a top guy or three can lay claim to getting overlooked by the national media. Alonso, with plus bat speed and power to match, is that guy for me. The burgeoning plate discipline is the cherry on top. I’m not in the national media, but maybe I’ll look back and see how I overlooked him as he rises up boards next spring.
- Duke JR RHP Bailey Clark
Poised for a big potential rise in 2016, Clark has the kind of stuff that blows you away on his best days and leaves you wanting more on his not so best days. I think he puts it all together this year and makes this ranking look foolish by June.
- Louisville JR 2B/OF Nick Solak
The day you find me unwilling to champion a natural born hitter with a preternatural sense of the strike zone is the day I hang up the keyboard. Solak is a tough guy to project because so much of his value is tied up in his bat, but if he build on an already impressive first two seasons at Louisville in 2016 then he might just hit his way into the draft’s top two rounds.
- Ohio State JR OF Ronnie Dawson
You could say this about almost any of this year’s upper-echelon of college outfielders, but I saved it specifically for Ronnie Dawson: he’s a big-time prospect from the minute you spot him getting off the bus. He looks more like a baseball destroying cyborg sent from the past to right the wrongs of his fallen brothers who fell victim to offspeed pitches and high fastballs on the regular. Few of his peers can quite match him when it comes to his athleticism, hand-eye coordination, and sheer physical strength. As a member of this year’s college outfield class, however, he’s not immune from having to deal with the open question as to whether or not he can curb his overly aggressive approach at the plate enough to best utilize his raw talents.
- Kentucky SR RHP Kyle Cody
As an outsider with no knowledge of how Cody’s negotiations with Minnesota actually went down, I’m still surprised that a fair deal for both sides couldn’t be reached last summer. The big righthander (here we go again…) is what we thought he was: big, righthanded, erratic with his command, and an absolute handful for the opposition when his three pitches (mid-90s FB, average 76-82 kCB that flashes plus, hard CU with average upside) are working. There are no real surprises left in his amateur development, so the leap to the pro game seemed inevitable. Maybe he’s got a trick or two up his sleeve yet…
*****
Best of the rest position players…
- Austin Peay JR SS/3B Logan Gray
- College of Charleston JR OF/SS Bradley Jones
- Oklahoma State JR OF Ryan Sluder
- Ohio State JR OF Troy Montgomery
- Virginia JR SS/3B Daniel Pinero
- Vanderbilt SO 3B/SS Will Toffey
- Auburn JR OF Anfernee Grier
- Tulane JR SS Stephen Alemais
- NC State JR C/3B Andrew Knizner
- Pacific SR OF Giovanni Brusa
- Hawaii JR 2B Josh Rojas
- Wisconsin-Milwaukee rJR SS/3B Eric Solberg
- Murray State JR C Tyler Lawrence
- Miami JR OF Jacob Heyward
- Louisville rSO 3B/SS Blake Tiberi
- Florida State JR OF/SS Ben DeLuzio
- Illinois SR C Jason Goldstein
- Texas JR C Tres Barrera
- Oregon State JR SS Trevor Morrison
- Missouri JR SS/3B Ryan Howard
- Mississippi State rSO OF Brent Rooker
- Stony Brook JR OF Toby Handley
- Virginia Commonwealth JR OF/2B Logan Farrar
- Belmont JR SS Tyler Walsh
- Southern Mississippi SR 1B Tim Lynch
- Old Dominion JR SS/OF Nick Walker
- Maryland JR C/1B Nick Cieri
- Coastal Carolina SO OF Dalton Ewing
- St. John’s JR OF Michael Donadio
- Stanford JR SS/2B Tommy Edman
- Arizona State JR SS/2B Colby Woodmansee
- Tulane JR C Jake Rogers
- Texas A&M JR 2B/OF Ryne Birk
- Mercer JR C Charlie Madden
- Saint Louis SR 3B Braxton Martinez
- UC Santa Barbara rJR OF Andrew Calica
- South Alabama rJR OF/LHP Cole Billingsley
- USC JR C/1B Jeremy Martinez
- Texas State JR OF/1B Granger Studdard
- Bradley JR 3B Spencer Gaa
- Long Beach State JR SS/2B Garrett Hampson
- Gonzaga SR 1B/RHP Taylor Jones
- NC State JR 1B Preston Palmeiro
- Mississippi State rJR OF Jacob Robson
- Jacksonville JR OF Austin Hays
- Louisiana Tech rSR SS/2B Taylor Love
- Oral Roberts JR C Brent Williams
- Southeast Missouri State JR OF Dan Holst
- Dallas Baptist SR OF Daniel Sweet
- St. John’s SR OF Alex Caruso
*****
Best of the rest pitchers…
- Vanderbilt JR LHP Ben Bowden
- Central Michigan JR LHP/1B Nick Deeg
- Auburn JR RHP/1B Keegan Thompson
- Georgia JR LHP Connor Jones
- Illinois JR RHP Cody Sedlock
- Florida JR RHP Logan Shore
- Florida JR RHP Dane Dunning
- Florida JR RHP Shaun Anderson
- Sacred Heart JR RHP Jason Foley
- Michigan JR LHP/1B Carmen Beneditti
- Air Force JR LHP Jacob DeVries
- St. Mary’s JR RHP Corbin Burnes
- Albany JR RHP Stephen Woods
- Indiana rJR RHP Jake Kelzer
- Oregon JR RHP Stephen Nogosek
- Connecticut JR LHP Anthony Kay
- Oregon rJR LHP Cole Irvin
- Mississippi State JR LHP Daniel Brown
- Liberty JR RHP/OF Parker Bean
- Pacific JR RHP Vince Arobio
- Pittsburgh JR RHP TJ Zeuch
- Loyola Marymount JR RHP JD Busfield
- Washington State JR RHP Ian Hamilton
- Michigan State rJR LHP Cameron Vieaux
- Michigan JR LHP Brett Adcock
- Gonzaga JR RHP Brandon Bailey
- South Carolina JR RHP Wil Crowe
2015 MLB Draft Reviews – Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 2015 MLB Draft Picks
13 – Andrew Benintendi
93 – Logan Allen
95 – Austin Rei
122 – Marcus Brakeman
135 – Tate Matheny
241 – Tucker Tubbs
259 – Mitchell Gunsolus
265 – Kyri Washington
268 – Kevin Kelleher
353 – Travis Lakins
368 – Yomar Valentin
399 – Nicholos Hamilton
I’m not sure what to say about OF Andrew Benintendi (13) that hasn’t already been said. His sophomore season was insane. His pro debut was phenomenal. Literally everybody who has seen him play at Arkansas, Lowell, and Greenville in the last calendar year has walked away raving about him. I like the lefthanded AJ Pollock comp I threw on him before the draft as it pertains to his all-around game. Additionally, the fact that as a native Philadelphian I threw out a Chase Utley swing/body comp is serious business. I had somebody recently tell me that they think Benintendi is the best college bat since Anthony Rendon, a player (minus handedness) that he felt Benintendi could approximate in terms of total value as a hitter. So, if you’re scoring at home, that’s Pollock, Utley, and Rendon as possible comps with names like Mark Kotsay, Eric Byrnes, and David Dellucci (Baseball America) also mentioned as starting points. Not bad. Here’s a quick note from during the season just days before Benintendi’s stock began to soar in the public’s eye…
I never went back and mentioned Andrew Benintendi as being draft-eligible in 2015, but he is. That’s good news for me because Benintendi is awesome and getting him one step closer to pro ball makes me happy. He’s more ballplayer than tools freak, so teams that value big amateur production will have him higher than others. That said, he’s plenty talented: above-average or better hit tool, above-average or better speed, solid pop, enough range for center, and a disciplined approach at the plate. He’s really damn good. Baseball America has compared him to Austin Cousino in the past, but Benintendi’s huge sophomore season (.370/.475/.733 with 30 BB/24 K in 146 AB as of this edit) should vault him past Cousino’s 2014 draft spot (80th overall). I’ve heard from some that think I’m too rich on Benintendi’s tools and that’s fine, but I’m buying him as a prospect all the way.
Interestingly enough, I was able to dig up some older stuff on Benintendi in the archives. This was his quick HS scouting bio…
OF Andrew Benintendi (Madeira HS, Ohio): good speed; CF range; average arm; really smart player; above-average hit tool; FAVORITE; 5-10, 180 pounds
Hey, he was a FAVORITE back then! Always good to see.
I’m not a big fantasy guy — mostly out of the seemingly contradictory combination of general laziness and the fear of letting my over-competitive self getting sucked in too deep — but the one league I’ve been in forever allows the twelve owners to roster three minor league players at any given time. Having only thirty-six minor league prospects floating around the league at a time doesn’t exactly incite the most compelling post-draft scramble for new professional talent each June, but it always surprises me to see how long recent draftees sit around waiting for more casual minor league fans to buy in. Since I’m all about “drafting” my own hitters and figuring out pitching on the fly, I’d put Benintendi at or near the top of the 2015 MLB Draft in terms of fantasy value. Boston’s crowded outfield picture complicates things a bit and strong arguments could be made for others (Alex Bregman for sure, maybe Trenton Clark if you want to get crazy), but Benintendi could be on the Michael Conforto path to the big leagues. He’s really good at hitting baseballs. Pick him up in fantasy if you can.
The pre-draft stuff on C Austin Rei (95)…
I still think Rei gets picked way higher than anybody thinks because he’s coming into pro ball at the perfect time with plus pitch framing skills that match what teams want to see most in catching prospects. I’m a really big fan of Rei and think he’s one of the draft’s “safest” prospects with both a high ceiling (above-average regular) and high floor (elite defensive backup). Barring additional injuries, I don’t see how he doesn’t have some sort of big league career.
His defense is enough to keep him employed for a very long time and the flashes of above-average power could give him a chance to play regularly. I was hoping to see his approach take a step forward in 2015, but the torn thumb ligament made judging his actual progress at the plate this spring tricky. His free-swinging ways would still keep me from ranking among the minors best catching prospects, but there’s enough here to see him as a major league mainstay even if he doesn’t reach what some (like me) once considered his above-average regular ceiling.
Of all the players in this class, I might have been most surprised at the early pro struggles of OF Tate Matheny (135). Matheny, valued far more for his his patient approach as a hitter and well-rounded overall game than his raw tools, wasn’t able to do much offensively (9 BB/52 K) in his debut season. It’s only 213 PA, but the lack of raw power (body and swing) could prevent him from reaching an offensive ceiling heavily dependent on on-base skills. I was more willing to overlook the average at best power upside as a college player when he was racking up those .400+ OBPs, but time will tell if he’ll figure out away to adjust to how pro pitchers attack hitters like him at the higher levels.
The rise of many of this class’s toolsier players finally putting it together, especially among the outfield group, has taken some of the shine off of the more solid than spectacular types like Missouri State JR OF Tate Matheny. Matheny still looks like a good bet to fulfill his destiny as a fourth outfielder who won’t kill you in a starting role at times (especially if deployed properly), but teams in the market for upside plays will likely look elsewhere. Such is the life of a guy with no tool worse than average, but no carrying tool either.
OF Jagger Rusconi was called out as an outfielder on draft day, but was primarily a second baseman in high school and in his pro debut. His best offensive skill right now is his legs as the plus runner can wreak havoc on the base paths when given the opportunity. The rest of his offensive game is intriguing — feel for hit, sneaky pop, all kinds of athleticism — though understandably raw. I was set to call this an overdraft (if such things existed) to a degree, but I could see an alternate reality where Rusconi would have turned into a slam dunk top three round pick — maybe like an Andrew Stevenson? — if he had enrolled at USC instead of signing. A friend in Boston who knows me all too well told me that the hope within the Red Sox scouting staff is that Rusconi can be their version of Roman Quinn. Consider my interest piqued.
This was written here about 1B Tucker Tubbs (241) last December…
If SR 1B/3B Tucker Tubbs can rediscover his lost power stroke, he’s got a chance to get popped as a potential four-corners minor league bench bat.
Fast-forward six months and we see that Tubbs did exactly that. The Memphis slugger and the aforementioned Benintendi were two of the eight players that hit the 600 SLG and BB > K benchmarks at the D1 level back when I checked at the end of May. Tubbs wound up just short by the end of the season (.305/.393/.601 with 26 BB/27 K), but that’s still a heck of a senior season. Or, in other words: “He has power and doesn’t strike out much,” said Rikard. “That’s a pretty good formula for some level of success.” Straight from the Red Sox amateur scouting director’s mouth! Lefthanded hitting 3B Mitch Gunsolus (259) could form the other half of a fun platoon with Tubbs one day. While Tubbs missed out on the 600 SLG and BB> K Club by just one walk (or strikeout if you look at it that way), Gunsolus was just a few extra base hits off the mark (.556 SLG with 33 BB/32 K). I love watching Gunsolus hit and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the tenth rounder did enough at the plate to advance all the way up to the big leagues.
Even though the Red Sox went heavy on hitting with their top ten round picks, they found a way to really make it count with the three pitchers they selected in rounds six, seven, and eight. Getting LHP Logan Allen (93) in the eighth round is just silly value. Fast-rising high school arms who see a big uptick in stuff in a short amount of time typically scare me off, but Allen’s plus pitchability, really strong command (I’d go plus), and willingness to throw any of his four potentially average or better pitches (88-92 FB, 94 peak; mid-70s CB that flashes average or better; upper-70s cut-change thing that works; hard slider that might wind up the best of them all) in any count make him a fascinating potential big league starter who really had no business falling out of the top three rounds. RHP Travis Lakins (353) is an athletic young arm with less miles on it as a draft-eligible sophomore than many of his peers. I view him as a really good potential reliever, but I can see why one would look at his athleticism, frame with some projection left, and fastball command and think otherwise. RHP Ben Taylor lives 88-92 and can get it up to 93-94 with nice deception in his windup. Everything — the heater, his breaking ball, even a rarely used changeup — plays up in short bursts. His gigantic senior season (14.23 K/9 and 1.47 ERA in 42 IP) positioned him very nicely for a spot in the top ten rounds and the Red Sox wisely were the ones to give him a shot. Look out for him pitching the sixth innings at Fenway sooner rather than later.
I don’t know quite what it is about RHP Marc Brakeman (122), but something intuitively gives me pause when it comes to his long-term future. He’s got the stuff (88-93 FB, 95 peak; plus to plus-plus sinking low-80s CU; average or better mid- to upper-70s CB) and pedigree to start, but I always walk away from seeing him thinking the sum of the whole doesn’t quite add up. It’s especially hypocritical for me to not like him all that much because his best pitch — seriously, his changeup is as good as any in this class — just so happens to be my offspeed offering of choice. I touched briefly on the intuition thing before the season…
Stanford JR RHP Marc Brakeman is more of a two-pitch prospect (like Twomey) that I’ve referenced above. Armed with a nice albeit inconsistent heater (88-94, 95 peak – though I’ve seen him sit more on the low end of that range at times) and an outstanding low-80s changeup, Brakeman could move up boards quickly once he gets healthy again. I’ve been the low man on him in the past, but that’s more due to an intuition thing than anything I can reasonably express.
A part of me sees his stuff playing up in a big way out of the bullpen; that’s his most likely direct path to the big leagues. In that role, I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest he’s got legitimate late-inning upside on the continuum of Francisco Rodriguez, Tyler Clippard, or Kelvin Herrera, depending on how the fastball works in short bursts. If that’s the outcome, that’s a gigantic victory considering Brakeman’s 16th round standing (overslot bonus or not).
RHP Kevin Kelleher (268) had a slightly auspicious pro debut: 0.1 IP 0 H 4 ER 7 BB 0 K. Ouch. Now you, Mr./Mrs. Negative, could choose to focus on those four earned runs and seven walks, but I, uplifting soul that I am, think Kelleher should be lauded for getting an out. I mean, that’s one more than 99.9999% of the human population ever got, right? It’s also impressive that he’s literally never given up a pro hit yet. We’re all about the silver linings here.
I kid about Kelleher because I really do like him as a prospect. Wrote this about him before the year…
With a dominant FB/SL combination New Orleans JR RHP Kevin Kelleher has big league closer upside. That’s a bolder prediction that I intended to make, but the stuff seems in line with what we’ve come to expect out of late-inning relievers. Players who can get it up to 98 with a hard mid- to upper-80s slider to match aren’t easy to find.
Upside might be a bit rich there, but I don’t think it’s totally crazy. Even without working out the kinks needed to reach his considerable ceiling, I think he’s a big leaguer and surprisingly quick mover. Great pick in the twelfth round.
I almost always kick of my college draft coverage by writing about the ACC because I’m a creature of habit and the ACC is the first conference listed in my running draft Word document. As such, I tend to have more in the archives about ACC players. LHP Brad Stone (NC State) and RHP Trevor Kelley (North Carolina) both were “lucky” enough to get fairly extensive ramblings from me last spring. Here’s Stone…
JR LHP Brad Stone seems poised to take over the mantle as top pitching prospect, but, no knock against him, his stuff (upper-80s heat, usable change, pair of interesting breaking balls) is many steps down from Rodon on his worst day. He’s still the best of what’s around, and an arm worthy of serious draft consideration going forward.
And here’s Kelley…
On the opposite side of the spectrum there’s a guy who is so much what is great about the sport. SR RHP Trevor “Everyday” Kelley has more than lived up to his name this year. Kelley has appeared in 28 out of 39 games (72%) this year. That would come out to around 115 appearances in a 162 game season. To further put that into context, Kelley has more innings pitched right now than all but two Tar Heels pitchers. Guys with six (Hunter Williams) and seven (Moss) starts have significantly less innings than Kelley. One of the secrets of adulthood that I feel qualified to share with younger readers now that I’m a wizened old man less than seven months away from turning thirty is that just showing up is a huge part of getting by in this world. Trevor Kelley clearly has that covered. Some people prefer to do more than just get by, so it should be noted that it turns out you can get ahead by actually making a positive difference (or, you know, at least an effort) after you’ve shown up. I’d say pitching almost two innings per appearance (note: it’s closer to 1.2 innings per outing, but we can round up) with an ERA of 2.36 while striking out close to 7.5 batters per nine is a pretty strong impression to leave after each showing. Kelley’s stuff is more solid than spectacular (86-91 FB with sink, CB flashes plus) and he’s never truly dominated in a relief role, but I’d like to think there’s some draft value to be squeezed out of a reliable rubber-armed reliever who attacks hitters at a funky angle.
Kelley had an excellent senior season (8.19 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 in 77 [!] relief innings) before doing more of the same upon joining the Red Sox organization. I’m frankly stunned that a player like him could fall to the 36th round. The Rob Wooten comp is easy and maybe even a bit lazy, but it fits. If anything, I think he could wind up having a better pro career thanks to a separating pitch (CB), rubber arm, and funky arm action. It’s a nice middle relief profile. Stone did not have an excellent senior season (7.80 K/9 and 10.80 BB/9 in 15 IP). That’s no reason to write him off as a viable prospect, of course. He changes speeds well and has always missed his fair share of bats. If the control gets in check and he continues to fill out, there could be something there.
On the opposite end of the physical spectrum, LHP Matt Kent, LHP Bobby Poyner, and LHP Logan Boyd are all undersized lefthanders with enough stuff to keep things interesting as they progress through the minors. Kent is a nice organizational arm, Poyner is a little bit better than that, and Boyd falls somewhere in between. I know little about RHP Danny Zandona except for the fact he put up eye-popping numbers (14.18 K/9 in 39 IP) in his senior year at Cal Poly. I’m similarly bereft of information on RHP Adam Lau, a two-way player at UAB who walked the effectively wild tightrope (11.81 K/9 and 5.06 BB/9 added up to a 1.69 ERA in 31 IP) in his junior season. RHP Nick Duron is the third player ever drafted out of Clark College and the first since Randy Myers (!) in 1982. RHP Max Watt, Trent Steele’s oldest and dearest friend, is another pitcher I don’t know much about. Wouldn’t bet against a name like that, though.
Much was written about OF Kyri Washington (265) on this site this past calendar year. Here’s one such excerpt…
JR OF Kyri Washington has as much a claim to the top position player spot in his conference as just about any prospect in the country. Evaluating amateur talent is sometimes only as hard as we make it. Your eyes eventually settle into seeing predictable patterns in the players you see and you find yourself getting unusually adept at recognizing the kind of ability that will become universally lauded as pro-caliber. “Always bet on ______” is more than just a snappy one-off line, but a mantra that serves those who watch a disproportionate amount of baseball well as they assess a prospect’s future. In Washington’s case, his athleticism and raw power qualify as abilities that stack up against almost any current big league player. If those are the traits that you value highly – and, really, who doesn’t? – then Washington is just about as good as it gets in college ball this year.
Conversely, anybody who watches a ton of amateur ball can quickly realize the holes in a mega-talented player’s game. If you’re an “always bet on the hit tool, including the consistent ability to make contact, the capacity to make adjustments within an at bat (or at least a game), and a seemingly innate overall feel for the strike zone and resourcefulness to spit on sometimes-strikes that he can’t do anything with,” well, then you might have some trepidation in championing a player who otherwise has first round tools. I’m on the fence as to whether or not how much of what we consider to fall under the plate discipline/approach to hitting umbrella can be taught, but I do believe that Washington is at the age in his baseball development when figuring it out – maybe not completely, but certainly to a degree – is well within the realm of possibility. That possibility on top of the prodigious raw power and plus athleticism is what makes the prospect of gambling on Washington so appealing. I get it. A comparison that I’ve heard and liked – though it admittedly stretches the limits of my personal firsthand baseball watching days – has stacked up Washington favorably to a young Richard Hidalgo.
I’m not sure I have much to add beyond that. Washington has huge raw power and loads of athleticism, but so many questions about his bat that it’s unclear if it’ll ever matter. “You remember Kentrail Davis? Kinda like that,” was how one scout put it to me when asking about Washington.
They don’t get much rawer than OF Nicholos Hamilton (399), a plus-plus running high schooler out of New York who is incredibly far away from what he’ll eventually be. I had somebody tell me rather prophetically that they’d rather take a chance on going overslot with Hamilton (Note: the Red Sox got him for $100,000, so they didn’t have to dip into their pool money) in the eleventh round than on risking a first round pick on Garrett Whitley.
OF Tyler Spoon, drafted just 1034 spots after his Arkansas teammate Andrew Benintendi, has long been mentioned as a potential professional second base project, but the Red Sox took the idea one step further by having him get some work in behind the plate a little in his debut season. If that experiment works, then Spoon might be a name worth keeping in mind. We’re talking the deepest darkest recesses of your mind, but at least he’d be in there. OF Jerry Downs hit really well in his pro debut. I don’t know much about him, but I’ll be rooting hard for him to become only the eighteenth big league player born in Colombia.
2B Yomar Valentin (368) is a steady glove up the middle with sneaky pop and a high baseball IQ. He was also a really young HS senior (18 this December), something that can also be said for Nick Hamilton. Could be a coincidence or could be that Boston wisely gives extra credit for guys who excel at a young age. 2B Chad De La Guerra has more pop than most middle infielders and picks his spots really well on the base paths. The approach leaves something to be desired, but if he can fake it at short then he might have a shot at working himself into a bat-first utility guy.
C Andrew Noviello is a fascinating player to close on. The local product from Bridgewater-Raynham HS (located just under an hour from Fenway) was a primary second baseman until his senior year of high school. That’s when he began giving catching an honest try in an attempt to make himself more appealing to pro and college teams alike. Good thinking. I also have him in my notes as capable of playing third base and being more than able to hold his own on the mound as a righthanded pitcher. The best part about this is the pick is far more than a team hooking up a local kid and getting some positive PR; Noviello can really hit. If he can show some growth behind the plate in the early going, he’s a real prospect.
The Baseball Draft Report 