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2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Pac-12

28 Jan 2013 12:07 AM / 2 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Pac-12

Time for the Pac-12’s time in the sun. From where I’m sitting, the conference looks a little light in position players but plenty strong in arms. There are a few impact, early-round talents to account for in the position player group (Austin Wilson very clearly leading the way, trailed by Brian Ragira and Andrew Knapp) and some nice depth thereafter, but most of the talent in the 2013 draft class will be found on the mound. Mark Appel headlines the pitching talent with over a dozen names in serious competition to be selected second from the group. Should be a fun, competitive year with talent fairly evenly spread throughout the league. The one thing that shocked me when going through the Pac-12 rosters was the lack of interesting talent on what tends to be a traditionally strong Arizona State squad. Stanford, UCLA, Oregon, and Oregon State look to be the class of the conference, at least in terms of future professional talent. Alright, enough of that…let’s get to some 2013 MLB Draft talk.

Here’s the key for the player lists:

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

Here we go…

C

California JR C Andrew Knapp
Oregon State JR C Jake Rodriguez
Washington State JR C Collin Slaybaugh
Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter
Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez
Washington JR C Ryan Wiggins
Stanford JR C Brant Whiting

Without giving it a ton of thought, I think it is fair to include Andrew Knapp on any short list of best draft-eligible college catching prospects in the country. He made a really nice jump between his freshman and sophomore seasons, and I expect more of the same heading into his junior year. It is probably unfair to peg him as a “breakout” candidate for 2013 — he’s too big a name for that, I think — but a .300/.400/.500 season with improved defense behind the plate doesn’t seem out of the question. Neither Jake Rodriguez nor Collin Slaybaugh profile as everyday catchers, but both guys do enough well at the plate that their defensive versatility (infield for Rodriguez, outfield for Slaybaugh) means something beyond just a novelty. Rodriguez, who probably has the tools to play any spot on the diamond in a pinch, is especially intriguing thanks to his speed, arm, power to the gaps, and better by the day defense behind the plate. Max Rossiter and Jake Hernandez are both really good defenders who can give you a little something at the plate as well; Rossiter in particular looks like a really strong senior sign this year.

1B

Oregon JR 1B Ryon Healy
Oregon State SR 1B Danny Hayes
Washington State rJR 1B Adam Nelubowich
California rJR 1B Devon Rodriguez
Arizona JR 1B Brandon Dixon
Stanford SR 1B Justin Ringo
California JR 1B Jacob Wark
UCLA JR 1B Pat Gallagher
Oregon JR 1B Jake Jelmini
Arizona JR 1B Sam Parris

Healy in a nutshell, from my notes: “loved him out of HS, but now a 1B only [was a 3B in HS] so he’ll have to hit a ton to make it.” I still believe in the bat, but admit to liking Healy a little bit more than your usual 1B prospect thanks to the “break glass in case of emergency” option that is his right arm. His most direct path to the big leagues is via his bat, obviously, though his mid-90s fastball past could give him an alternate route if necessary. Danny Hayes is a legitimately great college hitter. His ability to control the strike zone, hit for power, and do it all while operating at far less than 100% physically makes him one of my favorite 2013 prospects to watch. Still, the road to the upper-levels of professional ball is littered with great college hitters who can’t replicate their success enough to make it once hitting becomes a full-time job. Adam Nelubowich has a lot of fans in the scouting community, but I’m still reticent to go all-in on him as a prospect. For all the beauty of his swing and the clearly evident raw power, he hasn’t had a whole lot of positive outcomes as a college player. I think most of his backers would also argue fairly strongly against his placement on the 1B list, citing his decent foot speed, solid reactions, and overall improved defense at the hot corner. As even a slightly below-average 3B, I’d put him on top of the list of eligible PAC-12 prospects, but, for now, I’ll stick with my perhaps overly conservative approach.

2B

Stanford JR 2B Lonnie Kauppila
UCLA JR 2B Kevin Williams
Arizona State JR 2B Mike Benjamin
Stanford JR 2B Brett Michael Doran
Oregon JR 2B Aaron Payne
Southern California SR 2B Adam Landecker

Lonnie Kauppila should be listed with the shortstops — he’s very good there — but I like his defense so much at second base, where he has the potential to be at or near the top of whatever league ranking he’s in, that he stays here for now. Ultimately, his value will likely come as a defense-first backup middle infielder, so it won’t really matter what position is his primary spot going forward. Kevin Williams is enough middle infielder with legitimate plus defensive ability and outstanding athleticism in the conference. Mike Benjamin has the most pop out of the group, so consider his a name to follow this spring. Fun line on Brett Michael Doran, from my notes: “walks and talks like a big league veteran.” So, if nothing else, he’s got that going for him.

3B

Oregon State JR 3B Jerad Casper
UCLA SR 3B Cody Regis
Southern California JR 3B Kevin Swick
Utah JR 3B Trey Nielsen

Third base is easily the weakest position group in the conference with a strong likelihood that no Pac-12 prospect manning the hot corner will get drafted this June. The steady fielding Jerad Casper has the best chance at the moment, though much remains to be seen in how his bat will translate to major college ball. Cody Regis will likely play little to no 3B this spring for UCLA, but has shown enough there to warrant a switch back if he gets a shot in pro ball. Swick gets high marks for his instincts and intelligence on the diamond, and his power upside remains intriguing, but he’ll have to come a long way with the bat to get noticed in time for the draft this summer. The only thing I have on Nielsen in my notes outside of basic biographical information is that he can spin a good breaking ball. That’s a positive to be sure, but not exactly what you want your calling card to be as a third base prospect.

SS

Oregon State SR SS Tyler Smith
Oregon SR SS JJ Altobelli
Oregon State JR SS Kavin Keyes
UCLA JR SS Pat Valaika
Southern California JR SS Jimmy Roberts
California JR SS Derek Campbell
Washington State rSO SS Trace Tam Sing
Stanford JR SS Danny Diekroeger
Oregon State JR SS Andy Peterson

I’d say it isn’t every season that a team finds itself with three draft-eligible shortstop prospects of note, but Oregon State has managed to pull off the trick in 2013. Tyler Smith is a steady glove with enough range and arm for the left side who is coming off an unexpected power explosion in 2012. Kavin Keyes can play average defense at short, third, and second, but will need to show a little more with the bat in 2013 to get more pro attention. Andy Peterson is coming off of two productive years at Santa Ana JC and comes highly regarded, though he’ll have to do his best to get at bats when he can behind both Smith (SS) and Keyes (2B). JJ Altobelli, Derek Campbell, and Trace Tam Sing can all more than hold their own in the field. I think it is worth mentioning that there were plenty of rumblings out of Stanford last spring that Danny was the better ballplayer than his older brother Kenny. Not necessarily the better prospect — though I’m sure some were willing to go that far — but the better ballplayer. Many casual draft fans get angry at this kind of logic — if he’s better now, how can he not be the better prospect? — but projection is king in the world of prospecting.

OF

Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson
Stanford JR OF Brian Ragira
UCLA SO OF Eric Filia-Snyder
Washington State JR OF Jason Monda
Arizona JR OF Johnny Field
UCLA JR OF Brenton Allen
Washington JR OF Will Sparks
Oregon SR OF Andrew Mendenhall
Utah JR OF Braden Anderson
Oregon JR OF Connor Hofmann
Southern California SR OF Greg Zebrack
Oregon JR OF Kyle Garlick
Washington SR OF Michael Camporeale
California SR OF Vince Bruno
Oregon JR OF Brett Thomas
Southern California JR OF Omar Cotto Lozada
Oregon SR OF/RHP Ryan Hambright
Oregon State SR OF Ryan Barnes
Oregon State SR OF Joey Matthews
Utah SR OF Connor Eppard
Arizona State JR OF Kasey Coffman
Arizona State JR OF James McDonald
Arizona State rSO OF Trever Allen
Washington SR OF Jayce Ray
UCLA JR OF Brian Carroll
Oregon JR OF Tyler Baumgartner
Stanford JR OF Brian Guymon
Washington State rJR OF Brett Jacobs

There are some things to work on with Austin Wilson — a few swing issues that need ironing out, specifically his comically high back elbow that slows the whole operation down, and pitch recognition problems that may or may not be fixable with more at bats — but few amateur players across this country possess his blend of plus-plus power, much of it already present in-game, plus-plus arm strength, and above-average athleticism all wrapped up in a tight end strong 6-5, 250 pound frame. I do find it interesting — not good, not bad, just interesting — that after two years of college we’ve learned so little about Wilson as a prospect. He’s pretty much the same player he was as a senior in high school that he is now. Here’s what I wrote about him then:

The comps for Wilson range from silly (Dave Winfield) to topical (Andre Dawson) to “man, I feel old comparing high school kids to players I loved when I was 10″ (Juan Gonzalez, Moises Alou) to intriguingly ultra-modern and therefore ultra-hip (Mike Taylor, Mike Stanton) all the way to completely made up by me just now (Shawn Green, Ellis Burks). It goes without saying that Wilson hitting his ceiling would be blessed to have a career like any of the players listed above (minus the minor leaguers, I suppose), but they do provide some context into what has been said about Wilson’s upside as a prospect so far. The two current minor league comps stick out to me as particularly interesting; Mike Stanton is a comp that mixes Wilson’s most immediate “realistic” upside as top minor league prospect with an equally plausible estimation of his tools (power, arm, good enough speed, should be good defenders in the corner), and Mike Taylor’s name serves as a reminder that Stanford commits like Wilson are always a pain in the neck to get signed.

Power, arm, good enough speed (especially for his size), should be good defender in a corner (RF)…I’d say all that holds true today. We still don’t know for sure about his plate discipline, other than what he’s actually done on the field thus far (7 BB/53 K as freshman, 25 BB/42 K as sophomore) and what little has been observed about his inability to pick up and hit good breaking stuff. One comp that I didn’t mention back in his high school days that I think makes a world of sense now, at least in terms of hitting style and build (especially if you don’t love his plate discipline outlook): former National and current Mariner Michael Morse. I think Morse represents a fairly realistic baseline for Wilson, if/when Wilson makes it as a big league regular.

Wilson’s teammate, Brian Ragira, is a hard player to figure defensively. As great as Ragira is at first base, his offensive profile fits much, much nicer in right field. I think he has the athleticism for it, but the emergence of Dominic Smith, first base defensive whiz at the high school level, has me reconsidering my view a bit. See, Smith is such an excellent glove at first that I wouldn’t want to move him off the position even if I thought he could become an average or better glove (I do think this, by the way) in an outfield corner. If Ragira can offer the same defensive upside at first base — and many think his glove at first is on par with Smith’s for best overall in the class — then maybe you keep him there, reap the defensive rewards, and pray that the bat can at least become average or even slightly below-average for the position in time. I’d still roll the dice on him in right field — he was an excellent defender in CF as a high schooler, if memory serves — and wait out his plus raw power, mature approach (which I could see really taking a leap forward in BB/K results this year), and quick bat developing over time.

The two UCLA prospects are exactly that: prospects. If the high ranking seems unusually aggressive, then, well, it probably is. Eric Filia-Snyder has all of 53 college at bats to his name. Brenton Allen has 24 total at bats in two post-high school years. A lot of faith is being put in Filia-Snyder’s advanced hit tool and Allen’s raw speed/power combination, doubly so when you combine the lack of experience with the unfortunate truth that both guys have below-average arms that will likely limit them to LF professionally. Jason Monda remains too aggressive for his own good at the plate, but flashes enough speed, arm, power, and athleticism to remain interesting. Johnny Field is totally different: his physical tools are all underwhelming, but he can roll out of bed ready to hit line drives. If he can play 2B, as some believe, he could be a fast riser this spring.

Where things get really interesting is the next tier down. The Pac-12 is absolutely loaded with plus running athletes up and down the league. With most of these guys you’re trading some degree of refinement and experience for said speed and athleticism, but if you gamble and wind up taking the right one, you’ll be sitting pretty. Sparks, Mendenhall, Anderson, and Hofmann all have the sheer physical skills to rank third behind only the two Stanford standouts in terms of ceiling. Sparks showed well in limited chances last year, and has the best raw power of the bunch. Mendenhall remains intriguing because of the relative low price tag the senior sign figures to jump at, not to mention his higher than usual ceiling for a fourth year player. Anderson is the best runner of the group and Hofmann, the rawest of the four, offers the widest range of current tools (arm, speed, hit, range). Then there’s Omar Cotto Lozada, a player described in my notes as “if Usain bolt played baseball.” I think that comparison is probably more true than even Cotto Lozada would like: you love the plus-plus-plus speed he brings, but his current skill level at the plate is closer to what you’d expect from a real deal non-baseball player like Bolt. Greg Zebrack doesn’t fit this speed/athleticism mold — his game is more power, smarts, and approach — but he’s a fun story to watch (started at USC, then went to Penn, where I saw him, and now back at USC for grad school) as a potential late-round senior sign.

SP

Stanford JR RHP Mark Appel
Oregon rJR LHP Christian Jones
UCLA JR RHP Adam Plutko
Stanford JR RHP AJ Vanegas
UCLA JR RHP Zack Weiss
UCLA JR RHP Nick Vander Tuig
Arizona State JR RHP Trevor Williams
Oregon JR RHP Jimmie Sherfy
Oregon State JR RHP Dan Child
Oregon rSO RHP Clayton Crum
Arizona JR RHP Konner Wade
Oregon State SR LHP Matt Boyd
Washington SR RHP Josh Fredendall
Oregon State JR LHP Ben Wetzler
Oregon State SR RHP Cole Brocker
Oregon State SR RHP Tony Bryant
California JR LHP Mike Theofanopoulos
Oregon JR RHP Brando Tessar
Utah SR RHP Zach Adams
Arizona State SR RHP Alex Blackford
California SR LHP Justin Jones
Washington State JR RHP JD Leckenby
Oregon rJR RHP Jeff Gold
Washington rJR RHP Nick Palewicz
Washington JR RHP Austin Voth
Oregon State rSR RHP Taylor Starr
Arizona SR RHP Tyler Hale
Arizona JR RHP James Farris
Oregon State JR RHP Scott Schultz
Stanford rJR LHP Garrett Hughes
California rSO RHP Dylan Nelson
UCLA rJR RHP Ryan Deeter
Arizona SR RHP Nick Cunningham
California rJR RHP Seth Spivack
Utah JR RHP Ben Mordini
California JR LHP Kyle Porter
Washington JR RHP Tyler Kane
Stanford SR RHP Dean McArdle
Southern California JR LHP Kyle Richter
Washington JR RHP Trevor Dunlap
Oregon State JR RHP Clay Bauer
Oregon State rSO LHP Tyler Painton
California SR RHP Ryan Wertenberger
Southern California JR RHP James Guillen
Arizona State SR LHP Matt Dunbar
Washington JR RHP Jeff Brigham
Southern California SR RHP Matt Munson
Arizona SR LHP Vince Littleman
Utah SR RHP Brock Duke
Utah SR RHP Joe Pond
California SR RHP Logan Scott
Utah SR RHP Chase Rezac
Southern California JR LHP Bobby Wheatley
Washington State JR RHP Kellen Camus
Washington JR RHP Zach Wright
Washington State rSO RHP Scott Simon
Utah JR LHP Tanner Banks
Stanford SR RHP Sahil Bloom

Here’s what we said about Appel last June, no reason to switch it up now (updated only to indicate change in year and height/weight):

Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel: sits 93-97 with four-seamer, hitting 99; holds velocity late: still at 94-95 in ninth innings; all FBs typically between 90-95; 88-92 two-seam FB with excellent sink; excellent FB command, but gets in trouble with too many hitter’s strikes – almost a little bit of a great control vs. good command situation; FB also gets in trouble at higher velocity when it flattens out and comes in too straight, especially when he forgets about two-seamer; sat consistently 96-98 with FB in summer 2011; easiest high velocity arm in class by a wide margin; rarely dips below 92; opening start 2012: 91-95 FB, 97 peak; above-average 82-84 SL that remains inconsistent; low-80s CU; for me, he’s at his best when he is 92-94 with plus sink and throwing lots of SL, sometimes gets too dependent on FB and overthrows it causing him to miss up in the zone; as the spring moved on, his SL improved considerably, though it lacks the sharpness and break of a true SL (it is more of a hybrid-breaking ball at this point) – now it is a more consistent, though still not reliable, 82-85 pitch with plus upside that can reach even higher (86-87 when he rears back); 80-85 circle CU with very good sink is currently an average big league pitch with plus upside – it is currently his best swing and miss pitch and my favorite of his offspeed offerings; can get in trouble showing too much of the ball in his delivery; no denying his raw stuff – taken individually, each pitch grades out as above-average to plus down the line, but the inability to throw all three pitches for strikes on any given day continues to be his downfall; downfall is, of course, relative – he still has the upside to be a frontline starter with the realistic floor of big league innings eater; 6-5, 215 pounds

He’s good. The gap between Appel and the next best pitching prospect in the conference is immense. That’s not to say there aren’t other high upside arms to be found — a quick glance at the UCLA roster disproves this notion in a hurry — but rather demonstrates the wonderful high ceiling/high floor projection that Appel carries with him. The aforementioned UCLA staff is so deep that my favorite pro arm can’t currently crack the weekend rotation. Zack Weiss has had an up and down career for the Bruins thus far, but possesses the three above-average pitches (FB/CB/SL) that could help him take off once given a more consistent opportunity. Adam Plutko and Nick Vander Tuig, in line to start Friday and Saturday respectively this spring, are no prospect slouches in their own right. Plutko doesn’t blow his fastball by hitters, but the pitch still grades out as a consistent plus offering thanks to pinpoint command and exceptional late movement. He’ll also flash a plus low-70s curve and work in solid but unspectacular changeups and sliders. I’m pretty sure just reviewing my notes and typing this out has convinced me to swap the two guys on my list. Just goes to show how important the fastball extras (command and movement) can be, especially when joined with beautiful, consistent mechanics. Vanegas, recently shut down due to injury, has back of the bullpen stuff that should help him take a huge step up in 2013, if his health allows it. The previously mentioned Vander Tuig and Trevor Williams feel like kindred spirits from a scouting perspective: underwhelming performances, but optimism going forward thanks to fastballs with good sink, changeups that flash plus, and occasionally impressive breaking stuff. Lost in this discussion thus far is the man ranked one spot below Appel, Christian Jones. If Jones returns to even 80% of his pre-injury form before draft day, a team would be wise taking a chance on him early on. Jimmy Sherfy will be an interesting draft day case in that his numbers are second to none (14.38 K/9 in 2012) while his stuff is far more good than dominant. Dan Child fits the power-armed relief ace role more easily with a more consistently hot fastball and intimidating size (6-5, 225 pounds to Sherfy’s 6-0, 180), but hasn’t had quite the same kind of oppressive strikeout totals to date.

The overall depth of this year’s group of Pac-12 arms is quite impressive. I’m stuck wanting to talk about just about every name listed. For the sake of brevity I’ll just highlight a few interesting cases. Guys who stand out to me at this moment include Konner Wade (so well-rounded, plus sinking fastball), Matt Boyd (lefty, deep arsenal, good deception, very smart), Josh Fredenhall (everything down in zone, always), Zach Adams (inconsistent velocity, more inconsistent control, but electric when everything is working), JD Leckenby (underwhelming numbers but good stuff and excellent competitor), Taylor Starr (been in school for what seems like a decade, has endured multiple health challenges but shown good stuff when right), and Ben Mordini (one of the few players with an element of his game so bad I’d use the adjective “horrible” [control] but still flashes good stuff and can strike batters out). I feel bad leaving so many deserving pitchers without comments, so feel free to drop me a line via email or in the comments if there’s anything else that you’d like to see unearthed. One last name because I can’t help myself: Austin Voth (think I may be badly underrating him, but he throws strikes and has really good feel for his offspeed stuff, especially the change).

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: WAC

22 Jan 2013 5:30 PM / Leave a comment

WAC now, Pac-12 and Missouri Valley both almost ready to see the light of day. Finally starting to make some progress on these things. No hesitation, let’s talk WAC…

Here’s the key for the player lists:

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

Here we go…

C

Cal State Bakersfield JR C Cael Brockmeyer
Texas State rJR C Tyler Pearson
Louisiana Tech rJR C Kyle Arnsberg
Texas State SR C Andrew Stumph
Dallas Baptist SR C Duncan McAlpine
Texas-Arlington JR C Greg McCall
Seattle rJR C Ryan Somers

Brockmeyer’s size (6-5, 220 pounds) may necessitate a permanent move to first at some point, but his defense at present is good enough to stick for the foreseeable future. It goes without saying that he’s a better prospect the longer he can catch, but it is also worth mentioning that his bat is interesting enough that he’d also be the top first base prospect in the conference if that’s where you think he’ll eventually wind up. A pair of recent transfers share the spotlight with Brockmeyer near the top of the list. Tyler Pearson, a Rice transfer, comes to Texas State as an acclaimed defender. He’ll join powerful yet raw defender Andrew Stumph in what could be a particularly strong offense/defense timeshare. Kyle Arnsberg underwhelmed at the plate last year after transferring from Arizona State by way of McLennan JC, but brings enough positives to the table — athleticism, above-average defender, size, plate discipline — to watch him as a potential senior sign of note.

1B

Sacramento State SR 1B Clay Cederquist
San Jose State JR 1B Matt Carroll
Texas-Arlington SR 1B JM Twitchell
San Jose State JR 1B Matt Lopez
Texas State JR 1B Austin O’Neal
Dallas Baptist JR 1B Chane Lynch
New Mexico State SR 1B Kris Koerper

A good college first base prospect is hard to find, and things are no different in the WAC than they are across the rest of the country. Any one of Cederquist, Carroll, or Twitchell could be drafted based largely on the strength of their bats. Koerper’s power would put him in the same ballpark, but I don’t believe he’ll be suiting up for New Mexico State in 2013.

2B

New Mexico State SR 2B Parker Hipp
Sacramento State SR 2B Andrew Ayers
San Jose State JR 2B Jacob Valdez
Cal State Bakersfield JR 2B Oscar Sanay

There continues to be little to no buzz about Parker Hipp from a scouting standpoint, but all he’s done is put up numbers for New Mexico State. I don’t have anything new on him since last spring, so I’m hoping that what I wrote about him last year holds true today: “raw totals are inflated by home park, but park/schedule adjusted numbers still show his tremendous plate discipline; getting him into pro ball may help him go back to a less power-oriented swing; solid glove.”

3B

Sacramento State JR 3B Will Soto
San Jose State JR 3B Caleb Natov
New Mexico State SR 3B Robert Lecount

Quick and easy view on the hot corner: three useful college players, but not much to see in terms of pro prospects.

SS

Louisiana Tech SR SS Taylor Terrasas
Texas State SR SS Nick Smelser
Texas-Arlington JR SS Ryan Walker
Louisiana Tech JR SS Ryan Gebhardt

Things are a little bit better with this shortstop group, but I still think we’re looking at really good college players rather than legitimate professional prospects. Terrasas (.330/.435/.509) and Gebhardt (.327/.399/.399) both walked as much as they struck out last year, Walker showed the best power/speed blend (.428 slugging and 14/18 SB), and Smelser, the least impressive statistically of the quartet, has the best all-around tools package, especially on defense.

OF

Texas-San Antonio JR OF Riley Good
Dallas Baptist rSR OF Boomer Collins
San Jose State SR OF Nick Schulz
Louisiana Tech JR OF Sam Alvis
Texas-Arlington rJR OF Matt Shortall
New Mexico State JR OF Quinnton Mack
Sacramento State JR OF Justin Higley
New Mexico State rJR OF Tanner Rust
Texas State SR OF Morgan Mickan
Texas-San Antonio SR OF Daniel Rockett
Sacramento State rJR OF David Del Grande
Texas-San Antonio JR OF John Welborn
New Mexico State SR OF Kyle Phillips
Dallas Baptist SR OF Ronnie Mitchell

Regular readers know I hate the idea of sleepers — too many people out there care about this stuff that I find it very presumptuous to assume I’m the lone voice supporting a particular prospect — but Riley Good comes as close to the idea in the WAC as I can surmise. He does all the things you want out of a CF — catch the ball, run, throw — while also showing off an average hit tool with decent plate discipline. It seems highly doubtful that there are any starting caliber outfielders in the conference, so a backup outfielder skill set like Good’s begins to look just fine after a while.

On top of having a cool name, Boomer Collins can play. His numbers put him at the top of returning WAC outfielders by a comfortable margin and his average power/speed/arm strength combo is enticing. The Nebraska transfer is the better bet to have a superior college season than the man ranked one spot above him, but Good’s age and positional value give him the narrow edge. Two-way standout Sam Alvis could be in line for a breakout if allowed to focus more attention on his role as a position player. Shorthall, a Tulane transfer, has serious raw power, but has not yet been able to put it to consistent use thanks to the too much swing and miss in him. Quinnton Mack has his fans, and Tanner Rust, a versatile defender who may be able to stick at 3B or C with more reps, could intrigue a team late on draft day.

P

Texas State JR RHP Kyle Finnegan
Dallas Baptist rJR RHP Jake Johansen
Texas-Arlington JR RHP John Beck
New Mexico State SR LHP Ryan Beck
Dallas Baptist rSR RHP Michael Smith
Texas State SR RHP Mitchell Pitts
Texas-San Antonio SR RHP Clint Sharp
Louisiana Tech SR RHP Trevor Petersen
Dallas Baptist JR RHP Cody Beam
Texas State JR RHP Scott Grist
New Mexico State SR RHP Adam Mott
Texas State JR RHP Hunter Lemke
San Jose State JR RHP DJ Slaton
Sacramento State JR RHP Dallas Chadwick
San Jose State JR LHP Johnny Melero
Sacramento State SR LHP Tyler Hoelzen
New Mexico State SR RHP Michael Ormseth
San Jose State SR LHP David Wayne Russo
Texas-San Antonio JR LHP Michael Kraft
Sacramento State JR RHP Tanner Mendonca
Cal State Bakersfield SR LHP Jeff McKenzie
Cal State Bakersfield SR RHP Scott Brattvet
Sacramento State SR RHP Brandon Creel
Cal State Bakersfield rSR LHP Jonathan Montoya
Louisiana Tech SR RHP Caleb Dudley
San Jose State SR RHP Kyle Hassna
Cal State Bakersfield rSR RHP Brandon Van Dam

Best prospect in the conference goes to Kyle Finnegan in a landslide. He’ll be a fun player to stack up against the rest of the country’s top pitchers – little bit of a big fish/little pond vibe going on with Finnegan heading into 2013. He’s predominantly a sinker/slider guy, but calling his two-seam fastball just any old sinker undersells how good a pitch it has become. I’d put his explosive two-seamer up against just about any pitch in the college game, thanks in large part to his much improved ability to command it and the ever-present downward movement. Grading out a good fastball isn’t exactly rocket science: there are other factors to consider, but if you simplify it to 1) velocity, 2) movement, and 3) command, then you give yourself a pretty decent starting point to evaluate. We’ve covered movement and comment, but what of Finnegan’s heat? For the most part, the 6-2, 180 pound righthander lives in the low-90s, but he can crank it up to the 95-97 range at the expense of some/most of the movement and command that makes it so effective in the first place. In addition to his four-seam, two-seam, and slider (a true low-80s offering that flashes plus when he can command it), Finnegan also throws an improved but still lacking low-70s change and a mid- to upper-80s cutter that is often mislabeled as the slider. His numbers were more good than great last season (7.33 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 3.67 FIP | 93.1 IP), but a big jump in performance is expected (by me, and plenty of other smarter people) in 2013.

I mentioned earlier how I’m curious about how Finnegan stacks up against pitchers from outside the WAC. We haven’t covered nearly enough conferences to get a full picture just yet, but we can still work with what we have. A really quick look at the pitchers I’ve ranked so far, plus a familiar name from the soon to be published Missouri Valley Conference preview coming later this week, would look a little something like: 1) Sean Manaea, 2) Jonathan Gray, 3) Andrew Mitchell, 4) Austin Kubitza, 5) Ben Lively, 6) Aaron Blair, 7) John Simms, 8) Corey Knebel, 9) Dillon Overton, and 10) Kyle Finnegan. I think the most direct comparison right now would be between Knebel and Finnegan: low-90s FB capable of hitting more, CU needs work, flashes plus breaking ball (CB for Knebel), not completely dissimilar builds (we’re stretching here as Knebel is bigger at 6-3, 200 pounds, but most top prospects are bigger than Finnegan), and similar 2012 production (Knebel’s 2012: 8.67 K/9 | 2.32 BB/9 | 3.04 FIP | 73.2 IP). No real conclusions here, just thinking out loud.

Finnegan isn’t the only pitching prospect of note in the WAC. In fact, you could make an argument that the top three prospects are pitchers this year. If you take my decisions on to bold or not to bold to heart, then that’s exactly the argument I’m making. Johansen has been known for years as the poster boy for hard throwing, big bodied, no control righthanded college pitching prospect. His fastball/slider is ready for a pro bullpen tomorrow, but it is hard to ignore his ongoing issues with control. I’ve also long been of the mind that he needs something slower to keep hitters guessing a little bit more, though I now think I’m good with him embracing hard, harder, hardest and just letting it fly as a reliever. There’s a drop in stuff after Johansen, but the Beck brothers (note: not really brothers) both command the requisite three average or better pitches needed to entertain the notion they can start in pro ball. Sharp and Peterson fall closer to the Johansen tree, as hard throwers with below-average present control.

The Cal State Bakersfield duo at the bottom both missed the 2012 season after Tommy John surgery. I include them not only because I always like the give a mention to players coming off of injury, but also because it is easy to like any pair of teammates that can be so similar (injury and…same team? I guess mostly just the injury…) and so very different: Montoya weighs in at 5-7, 155 pounds (fairly close to my height/weight, which I know is fascinating to everybody out there) while Van Dam measures up at 6-7, 235 pounds.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Conference USA

17 Jan 2013 12:43 AM / 33 Comments on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Conference USA

Going team by team was fun, but the college season is creeping up way too quickly for me to get as many teams done as I’d like. Instead, we’ll take a larger view and go conference by conference. The only thing that will slow me down at this point is incomplete or missing 2013 rosters…North Carolina, Louisville, South Carolina, Oregon State, you are all on notice. Congratulations to Conference USA for being the second conference I’ve seen with every school’s updated roster. So far so good on the Missouri Valley Conference, so as of now they are the leader for next conference up.

Here’s the key for the player lists:

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Central Florida SR C Ryan Breen
UAB SR C/1B Harry Clark
Southern Mississippi rJR C Jared Bales
Central Florida SR C Nick Carrillo
Southern Mississippi SR C Chase Fowler

Lots of good college catchers, but not much in the way of exciting pro talent. Ryan Breen makes sense to me as a late-round senior sign as he’s a quality defender with a solid approach at the plate.

1B

East Carolina JR 1B Chase McDonald
Marshall SR 1B Nathan Gomez
Rice JR 1B Michael Aquino
Southern Mississippi SR 1B Blake Brown
Houston SR 1B Casey Grayson
Tulane SR 1B Tucker Oakley
UAB SR 1B John Frost

He’s not in the same class as college slugger or pro prospect, but watching Chase McDonald takes me back to watching Preston Tucker hit for Florida. Like so many college first basemen, he’s in a tough spot where just about all of his future value as a ballplayer will come down to how much he hits. He has loads of raw power from the right side and I like his patient approach, but it’ll take a team falling in love with his bat to get him drafted high enough to forego a senior season at East Carolina. Nathan Gomez could overtake McDonald as the best first base prospect in the conference. Gomez has the edge in athleticism, defense, and hit tool, and his senior sign status could work to his advantage for budget-conscious clubs. Aquino is a better fit for a corner outfield spot, but it remains to be seen if he’s got the foot speed to make a position switch work. If so, his draft stock will get a nice bounce: his hit tool ranks up there among the best in the conference.

2B

Houston JR 2B Frankie Ratcliff
Rice SR 2B Christian Stringer
Tulane SR 2B Brennan Middleton
Rice SR 2B Michael Ratterree

I’m really excited to see what the toolsy Ratcliff can do given a full season of Division I action. All the reports on his attitude have been positive which has to be considered a really good sign for a guy once dismissed from the team at Miami. I’m especially curious about his bat/plate discipline, as I’m fairly certain he’ll be more than fine when it comes to speed, defense, and even pop. Neither Stringer nor Middleton have tools that will wow you, but both guys are coming off really productive junior seasons. I like Stringer just a bit more with the bat, but prefer Middleton, who can hold his own at shortstop when called upon, with the glove. Ratteree would be higher — maybe second — if I had confidence he was totally over the yips that have plagued him in the past. Aside from that, he’s always impressed with with his range and raw arm strength. Even if he doesn’t cut it at second base in the long run, his positional versatility should remain a strong point in his favor.

3B

East Carolina JR 3B Zach Houchins
Rice JR 3B Shane Hoelscher
Marshall SR 3B Gray Stafford
Central Florida SR 3B Chris Taladay
Southern Mississippi SR 3B Travis Creel
UAB SO 3B Chase Davis

I’m really excited to see what the toolsy Houchins can do given a full season of Division I action. The Louisburg JC transfer is a strong natural hitter with a plus arm and a good approach. He does occasionally get himself into trouble by attacking too early in the count and swinging at pitchers’ pitches. Stafford’s power and arm strength are intriguing, but a less than ideal hit tool and too many misadventures with the glove keep his stock down. Taladay is interesting thanks to his positional versatility (he can also catch and play corner OF), and Creel is worth a mention due to his excellent defense at third.

SS

East Carolina JR SS Jack Reinheimer
Tulane SR SS Garrett Cannizaro
Southern Mississippi SR SS Isaac Rodriguez
Memphis JR SS Ethan Gross

Reinheimer and Rodriguez are both standout defenders with something to prove as hitters heading into 2013. Cannizaro may be in line for a switch to third base professionally, a move that wouldn’t necessarily kill his value if he a) continues to show progress with the bat, and b) becomes a plus glove at the hot corner.

OF

Tulane SR OF Brandon Boudreaux
UAB JR OF Ivan DeJesus
Marshall rSR OF Isaac Ballou
Tulane SR OF Blake Crohan
Tulane SR OF Sean Potkay
UAB SO OF Jeff Schalk
Central Florida SR OF Jeramy Matos
Central Florida rSR OF Erik Hempe
Houston JR OF Landon Appling
UAB SR OF Ryan Ussery
Tulane JR OF Andrew Garner
Houston SR OF Jake Lueneberg
Rice JR OF Brian Smith
Memphis rJR OF Derrick Thomas
Rice JR OF Keenan Cook
UAB JR OF Ryan Prinzing
East Carolina JR OF Ben Fultz
Houston JR OF Jonathan Davis
East Carolina SR OF Chris Gosik
Memphis JR OF Ford Wilson
East Carolina SR OF Phillip Clark

Conference USA more than holds its own in terms of prospect depth in the infield. That’s the good news. The less good news — also known as bad, but I’m trying to be positive here — is that there’s not much to get worked up about in the outfield. Brandon Boudreaux broke out in a big way last year, going from slugging .333 to .565 from 2011 to 2012. His plate discipline has always been sound — 60 BB/36 K over the past two combined seasons — but he’s now hammering mistakes in a way he didn’t before. All that and we haven’t mentioned his two strongest tools: plus speed and well above-average CF range. Ivan DeJesus brings a better ceiling, but, as so often has it, comes with greater risk. I’ve gotten firsthand reports on him that really bum me out, not because of his ability per se but because of the unfortunate lingering impact of his broken ankle of a couple years ago. DeJesus’ speed was once a carrying tool; now he’s closer to an average speed/average range CF than what he could have been. That said, reports on his physical talent remain largely positive: he’s routinely graded average or better in multiple areas (arm, hit tool, raw power) of his game. His approach, however, continues to limit his offensive production. His plate discipline (30 BB/94 K) has been almost the opposite of Boudreaux’s over the past year, except worse. Maybe his plus-plus speed could have had teams overlook his unrefined swing at everything style of hitting, but now the pressure will be on him to make more skill-based adjustments to his game. I wrote about Ballou before, so I’ll take the lazy man’s way out and just cut/paste: I’ve long been a fan of Ballou, so it should come as no surprise that I think he’s the closest thing to a position player lock as there is on the Marshall roster. He’s a really pesky hitter (.397 OBP in 2011, .450 in 2012) with an approach that fits well at the top of a lineup. He’s got enough speed and instincts to keep the “leadoff hitting CF” narrative alive, and there could be some yet unseen power in his sturdy 6-2, 200 pound frame.

A few rapid fire observations of the rest of the crew…Tulane’s outfield looks pretty strong in paper heading into 2013…the same could be said about Central Florida, especially if the powerful duo of Matos and Hempe can clean up their approaches a bit…if Landon Appling continues to show he can hold his own defensively as a catcher, his stock should climb…Ryan Ussery may or may not make it in pro ball, but he goes down as one of my favorite college players to follow over the years…I know little to nothing about Rice OF Brian Smith other than that he’s supposedly really really strong.

P

Rice JR RHP Austin Kubitza
Central Florida JR RHP Ben Lively
Marshall JR RHP Aaron Blair
Rice JR RHP John Simms
Tulane rSO RHP Randy LeBlanc
Tulane rSO RHP Tony Rizzotti
Tulane rJR RHP Kyle McKenzie
Memphis JR LHP Sam Moll
UAB SO LHP Dylan Munger
Rice rJR RHP Chase McDowell
UAB rJR RHP Ruben Tresgallo
Rice rSO RHP Connor Mason
Memphis rSR RHP Heith Hatfield
Tulane SR RHP Tyler Mapes
Houston JR RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon
Central Florida rFR RHP Ryan Meyer
Central Florida rSO RHP Spencer Davis
East Carolina JR RHP Drew Reynolds
Southern Mississippi SR RHP Andrew Pierce
Southern Mississippi rSO LHP Jake Drehoff
Rice SR RHP Tyler Spurlin
Southern Mississippi SR LHP Dillon Day
East Carolina rSR LHP Tyler Joyner
Southern Mississippi rJR RHP Cameron Giannini
Marshall JR RHP Josh King
East Carolina SR RHP Andy Smithmyer
Central Florida rSR LHP Chris Matulis
Central Florida SR LHP Brian Adkins
Tulane SR RHP Alex Byo
Memphis JR LHP Eric Schoenrock
East Carolina rJR RHP Tanner Merritt
Marshall SR LHP Wayland Moore
East Carolina SR RHP Joseph Hughes
UAB SR RHP Ben Bullard
Central Florida SR LHP Jimmy Reed
Rice SO RHP Evan Rutter
Southern Mississippi JR RHP Sean Buchholz
Southern Mississippi JR RHP Conor Fisk
Tulane JR RHP Alex Facundus
Memphis rJR RHP Jonathan Van Eaton
Tulane JR LHP Brady Wilson
Houston JR RHP Chase Wellbrock
Houston SR LHP Matt Hernandez
UAB JR RHP Chase Mallard
Marshall rJR RHP Ryan Hopkins
Central Florida JR RHP Danny Davis
Memphis JR RHP Jon Reed
Memphis JR LHP Alex Gunn
Houston SR RHP Austin Pruitt
Memphis rSR LHP Michael Wills
Tulane SR LHP David Napoli
Southern Mississippi JR RHP Boomer Scarborbough
Memphis rSR RHP Clayton Gant
Rice SR RHP Jeremy Fant

If Austin Kubitza and John Simms are both healthy throughout the spring, they’ll rank among college baseball’s top 1-2 pitching punches. Kubitza receives most of the accolades — heck, he’s first here after all — but Simms (88-92 FB with big movement, flashes of good mid-70s curve, and nasty splitter) is no slouch. Ben Lively is due for a monster junior season thanks in large part to a fastball that he has learned to command better and better every year. Guys with his frame (6-4, 200 pounds), fastball (great command of 88-93 heat), and multiple usable breaking balls (SL with cutter action and softer mid-70s CB) are fun to watch. At his best, Randy LeBlanc (95 peak FB, flashes above-average CU and CB with more upside than that) has a strong case for the top arm in the conference. Unfortunately, he’s yet to show the durability and command teams look for when monitoring a guy coming off of Tommy John surgery. Now that he’s a full season behind it, watch out. Fellow Tulane redshirt sophomore Tony Rizzotti, a TCU transfer, has a potent FB/SL combination when on. I’m curious to see where Sam Moll’s control is at in 2013: scouting reports are quite favorable, but results (4.05 BB/9 last season) leave something to be desired.

The current middle class of this pitching group offers a lot to like. There are a lot of transfers (Daniel Ponce de Leon and Spencer Davis) and elbow surgery survivors (Chase McDowell and Connor Mason) with plenty to prove in 2013. The number of hard throwers is also impressive. McKenzie, Tresgallo, Ponce de Leon, and Giannini have all hit the mid-90s at one point or another. I’ll be keeping tabs on Tyler Joyner, a quality arm that is unfortunately out of commission in this his last season of college eligibility. Tommy John surgery may have robbed him of his final year of college ball, but I could still see a pro club that has seen him enough of the years giving him a shot late on draft day.

I made the error of omitting four members of the Marshall pitching staff in the original posting. Thanks to Craig for pointing it out to me in the comments. The big name that was skipped over is RHP Aaron Blair. Smarter people than I have him as clearly the best prospect out of this bunch and I certainly reserve the right to change my mind between now and when final rankings come out in about six months, but, for now, I ‘m intrigued enough by the upside of Kubitza (I still see him as the future star I saw firsthand when he was in high school, I guess) and Lively (old comps die hard: I remember reading a Jeff Samardzija comp on him that has always stuck with me) — and for a brief moment Simms, before moving Blair above him — to rank Blair any higher. Of the top tier group, I do think it is fairly evident that Blair has the highest floor, which definitely counts for something. It does seem like there has been a recent uptick of guys who fit his profile seeing jumps in stuff and performance during their junior seasons. I mention Matt Barnes below, but I also get a little bit of a Chris Stratton vibe from at similar points of development. If I could predict he’d go in either of those directions, I’d likely be driving something a little more stylish than a Kia Rio. Realizing I can’t make such assumptions, I hedged my bet and put him third, where at least he’s ahead of another big name in Simms. Anyway, here’s what I wrote on Blair earlier this year:

It may not be the most descriptive adjective around, but the word “good” can be found throughout Blair’s scouting notes in my Word doc: good command of a 87-92 FB (93 peak) with good sink; good 74-78 CB; 81-85 CU thrown with good looking arm action;good, sturdy frame (6-5, 220 pounds); good numbers (8.42 K/9 in 2011, 9.04 K/9 and 3.37 FIP in 2012). If you didn’t know any better, you’d think Blair is a pretty darn good prospect, right? At this moment, he looks like a really strong bet to keep progressing until settling into his eventual role as big league mid-rotation starting pitcher. He’s a safe — well, as safe as any inherently risky amateur prospect can be — prospect, not a sexy one. Good across the board, neither great nor lacking in any one area. I liken him to a sturdier version of former Long Beach State and current Milwaukee Brewer RHP Drew Gagnon, a third round pick back in 2011. His profile also reminds me a little bit of Matt Barnes before Barnes velocity spike. I’m not enough of a scout (or a scout at all, really) to place odds on Blair experiencing a similar increase in stuff — I’m not sure any scout can actually predict this stuff, short of noticing a body desperately in need of better strength and conditioning and/or a major mechanical overhaul — but recognizing the possibility helps me cover myself just in case. Anyway, Blair looks like a good starting pitching prospect with the chance to go pretty good in this June’s draft. Good pitcher, good analysis.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big 12

8 Jan 2013 12:59 AM / 1 Comment on 2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: Big 12

Going team by team was fun, but the college season is creeping up way too quickly for me to get as many teams done as I’d like. Instead, we’ll take a larger view and go conference by conference. The only thing that will slow me down at this point is incomplete or missing 2013 rosters…North Carolina, Louisville, South Carolina, Oregon State, you are all on notice. Congratulations to the Big 12 for being the first conference I’ve seen with every school’s updated roster. So far so good on the Big 10, so as of now they are the leader for next conference up.

Oh yeah, I’ve also started messing around with a 2013 MLB Draft Mock Draft. Not sure it’ll ever see the light of day, but at least it is started. We’ll see if my guilt over not doing a mock for two years overtakes my shallow desire for sweet sweet Google aided page views. Back to the Big 12…

Here’s the key for the player lists:

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

I included a few relevant comments when I could, but I’m happy to expand on the players from any Big 12 team if anybody is interested. Here we go…

C

Texas JR C Jacob Felts
Baylor SR C Nathan Orf
Kansas JR C Kai’ana Eldredge
Texas Christian JR C Kyle Bacak
Oklahoma State rJR C Rick Stover
Oklahoma State JR C Tyler Palmer
Kansas State rJR C Blair DeBord
Oklahoma JR C Jake Smith
Oklahoma State SR C Victor Romero

Felts is the marquee name and the only stone cold mortal lock to get drafted in 2013. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to profile as much more than a quality backup backstop at the pro level, but a backup big league projection beats the heck out of a no big league projection at all. Orf warrants a mention as the best returning Big 12 hitting catcher; he hit a park/schedule adjusted .303/.456/.389 in 234 AB last year. Eldredge ranks second only to Felts in name value — like Felts he was a highly regarded prep prospect back in the day — and offers similar professional upside. I’ve always been fond of athletic catchers, so my longstanding appreciation for Eldredge’s game should come as no shock. Time at both 2B and SS have kept his defense behind the plate raw, but his arm and agility give him a strong enough defensive foundation to build on. The next step will be figuring things out as a hitter: his .178/.245/.199 line last season would disqualify him as a prospect were it not for the belief that he’s significantly better than he’s shown. Bacak, Stover, and Palmer are all really good defensive players with exceptional throwing arms. If any of the three bust out with the bat, then you have to think draft consideration would quickly follow.

1B

Texas SR 1B Landon Steinhagen
Kansas SR 1B Alex DeLeon
West Virginia JR 1B Ryan McBroom
Texas Tech rSR 1B Scott LeJeune
Oklahoma State JR 1B Tanner Krietemeier
Oklahoma State SO 1B Wes Jones

No huge surprise, but there isn’t much in the way of actual first base prospects in this year’s Big 12 class. Numbers aren’t everything, of course, but it is fairly telling that the highest park/schedule adjusted 2012 slugging mark out of this group comes in at a paltry (by 1B standards) .410. Steinhagen, who can also play some corner OF, has more power than he’s shown, but he’s still less than a 50/50 bet to get drafted. Same could be said for DeLeon, after substituting catcher for corner OF. McBroom, he of the pace-setting .273/.349/.410 line, offers up some promise. I’m barely literate, so correct me if I’m wrong, but do McBroom and LeJeune rhyme? That would be a fun coincidence.

2B

Kansas State JR 2B Ross Kivett
Texas Christian SR 2B Josh Gonzales
Baylor rJR 2B Lawton Langford
Texas Christian JR 2B Brett Johnson
Baylor SR 2B Steve DalPorto

Rare to find a true second base prospect worth getting excited about — most 2B are made and not born, after all — but there are a few moderately interesting Big 12 middle infielders of note. The one thing that stands out across the board is the impressive plate discipline shown by each member of this group. The player strongest in this area, Ross Kivett, just so happens to be my favorite. Kivett’s a really good runner, both in terms of speed and smarts, with just enough pop that I think his bat will keep from being a zero professionally. Gonzales is also a speedster; his steadier glove and senior sign status could help him overtake Kivett before the end of the year. Langford is a rock solid college player who defends the heck out of his position. Lack of defensive versatility hurts just about every guy on the list; the zero sum positional game is one of the reasons why 2B is such a tough position to find viable prospects.

3B

Texas JR 3B Erich Weiss
Texas Tech JR 3B Jake Barrios
Texas Christian rSR 3B Jantzen Witte
Texas JR 3B Madison Carter
Baylor SR 3B/OF Cal Towey
Texas Christian rSR 3B Davy Wright
Kansas State rJR 3B RJ Santigate
Oklahoma SR 3B Garrett Carey
Baylor SR 3B Jake Miller

The top three names are all exciting to me for various reasons. Weiss is criminally underrated for reasons I’m not quite sure I understand. Again, numbers don’t always tell the whole story when scouting, but compare these two players last two seasons (park/schedule adjusted):

Player A

2011: .351/.462/.577 – 51 BB/31 K – 248 AB
2012: .341/.417/.471 – 22 BB/23 K – 170 AB – 1/3 SB)

Player B

2011: .384/.514/.558 – 55 BB/36 K – 224 AB
2012: .409/.481/.635 – 23 BB/41 K – 203 AB – 10/12 SB

Those 2011’s are eerily similar, right? There’s some separation in 2012: Player A strikes out less, steals fewer bases, and hits for less power. All things being equal, as much as I love the slightly better walk rate of Player A, I’d have to go Player B on the strength of his numbers alone. Player B is Erich Weiss, Player A is everybody’s first round pick Colin Moran. Now even after all that, I’d still take Moran. The UNC junior is a much better defender at third, and, yeah, more patient at the plate, a big plus for me always. I know some have knocked Weiss’ swing and believe he’s in for a major revamp at the professional level. I can’t say I agree, but it is at least a legitimate argument for Moran’s bat — he could wake up in the middle of the night and hit line drives with his swing — over Weiss’. Relative strengths of bats aside, it ultimately comes down to this fairly simple observation: the possibility that Weiss is a corner outfielder in the pros looms much more likely than in the case of Moran. I really, really want a chance to see Texas this year, so hopefully I’ll learn some firsthand knowledge about Weiss’ defense at the hot corner. Failing that, I’ll keep my ear to the ground for any mention at all about his defensive progress. Big, underrated draft story line to watch this spring. While everybody is watching San Diego’s Kris Bryant, a player with a somewhat similar defensive forecast, I’ll be focused on Weiss. Well, Weiss and Bryant. And a few hundred others. I enjoy multi-tasking.

Barrios, the second name on the list, has been on the draft radar for years. He’s certainly got a lot of life experience out of his travels — from LSU to juco ball in Kansas (Seward County) and now settling in at Texas Tech — but the lack of consistent playing time leaves him something of a mystery as a prospect. I like his defensive tools, power upside, and positional versatility can also play 2B and SS). Nice player. One note on Barrios that I may only find interesting: he’s shrunk since high school. Not literally, of course, but rather in how his height and weight have appeared through the years. My oldest notes on him had him at 6-3, 200 pounds and growing. Texas Tech currently lists him at 6-0, 200 pounds. Wonder where those three inches went…

The third and final exciting name belongs to Jantzen Witte. I actually used the word “love” twice in my notes on Witte, first when talking about his defense and again when referencing his approach to hitting. His part/schedule adjusted numbers have been stellar the past two years (.370/.434/.516 in 2011 and .364/.419/.500 in 2012) though there are still some around the game who question whether or not he’ll hit enough to profile as a regular at third. I’ll admit to never really associating Witte’s name with starting caliber big league player in my mind, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have it in him. I’m pulling these numbers out of thin air here, but I’d be quite pleased if my favorite team targeted him as an affordable senior sign prospect between rounds six and ten. There are some big college names later in the ranks as the Big 12 is stacked with veteran third basemen this year. Towey’s defensive versatility makes him the most draftable at present, though arguments could be made for Santigate, Carey, and Miller, above-average defensive players all. As with the catchers profiled above, if any one of those three get the bat going, draft day could get interesting in a hurry.

SS

Texas Christian SO SS Derek Odell
Texas Christian JR SS Paul Hendrix
Oklahoma SR SS Jack Mayfield
Texas JR SS Alex Silver
Oklahoma JR SS Hector Lorenzana
Texas JR SS Ty Marlow
Kansas SR SS Kevin Kuntz

I’m not quite sure how TCU’s opening day lineup will shake out, but I do know there is some envious depth found up and down the roster. So far we have two redshirt-seniors on the 3B list, two worthwhile 2B prospects, and now two quality shortstops. I’m not positive either player will actually stick at shortstop, but I’ll give both Horned Frogs the benefit of the doubt for now. Odell’s bat has a chance of playing at 3B if his lack of foot speed necessitates a switch. Hendrix could probably due the same, thanks to impressive power to the gaps, above-average athleticism, and a strong arm. Mayfield is an intriguing two-way talent whom I prefer as a middle infielder. His plus athleticism, above-average speed, and quick hands give him the look of a future utility option. There’s little impact potential within the group, but Odell’s tool set, impressive freshman season (.322/.383/.471 in 174 AB), and last name that makes me nostalgic for my old Apple IIGS all help make him the current leader of the pack.

OF

Kansas State JR OF Jared King
Texas JR OF Mark Payton
Texas rJR OF Matt Moynihan
Oklahoma SR OF Max White
Oklahoma State JR OF Aaron Cornell
Texas rJR OF Cohl Walla
Kansas State SR OF Tanner Witt
Texas Christian rSO OF Axel Johnson
Kansas SO OF Michael Suiter
West Virginia SR OF Brady Wilson
West Virginia rJR OF Matt Frazer
Texas JR OF Weston Hall
Texas Tech rJR OF Devon Conley
Kansas JR OF Tucker Tharp
Oklahoma State SR OF Jarrett Higgins
Oklahoma State SR OF Trey Whaley
Texas Tech SR OF Brennan Moore
Oklahoma rSO OF Colt Bickerstaff
West Virginia rSR OF Chris Rasky

I don’t want to downplay how strong a prospect Jared King is (uses whole field extremely well, good hit tool and power upside, like him but don’t love him due to range/arm that likely limits him to LF), but the real headliner from this group of outfield prospects is the current collection of flycatchers in Austin. I’d happily pay more money than a broke 20something with lousy student loans ought to just to watch the trio of Mark Payton, Matt Moynihan, and Cohl Walla chase down flyballs. Injuries and transfer rules have kept the three from playing much together — not sure they’ve ever all been in the same outfield, but I’m too lazy to check — but a new year brings hope that the three will finally take the field as a unit. Payton is the safest prospect of the three, a legitimate plus to plus-plus runner with clear CF range, sneaky pop, and a balanced approach at the plate. He’s also the only one of the three who can say has been on the field enough to put up meaningful numbers (.370/.461/.567 with 8/13 SB) over the past calendar year. After transfers from both San Diego and Orange Coast CC, Moynihan has now approached mythical creature status for me: he’s like the Slender Man of the college baseball world. When he has played, he’s shown tremendous speed and athleticism with an approach to hitting well suited for the top of a lineup. Walla missed the 2012 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL. Before the injury he had speed and CF range that rivaled both Payton and Moynihan, at one point earning defensive comps to former Longhorns CF Drew Stubbs. At 100% a case could be made for Walla as the most intriguing of the three outfielders, thanks in large part to having the most raw power and arm strength of the group. Unfortunately there’s no telling how the injury will impact his game. Additionally, the lack of collegiate production (.250/.343/.313 in 144 swing at everything in 144 AB in 2011) can’t wholly be ignored.

King and the Texas trio aren’t the only Big 12 outfielders worth knowing for 2013. Max White and Tanner Witt have both hit enough in the past that you can project them as potential backup outfielders at the next level. That alone would be great, but there’s no need to stop simply at backup outfielder: both guys have played extensively at other positions — White can play anywhere but C and SS, Witt has experience at both 2B and SS — over the years. I admittedly didn’t know much about Witt just a few days ago, but his positional versatility, speed, and plate discipline (41 BB/20 K last year) have my attention. Cornell, Johnson, and Suiter have all flashed big league tools at times, but have yet to put it together over an extended stretch of time.

P

Oklahoma JR RHP Jonathan Gray
Texas Christian JR RHP Andrew Mitchell
Texas JR RHP Corey Knebel
Oklahoma JR LHP Dillon Overton
Texas Christian rSO RHP Trey Teakell
Oklahoma State rJR RHP/OF Mark Robinette
Oklahoma JR LHP Billy Waltrip
Texas JR RHP Nathan Thornhill
Texas Tech JR RHP Trey Masek
Kansas SR RHP Tanner Poppe
Oklahoma State SR RHP Randy McCurry
Texas rJR RHP Josh Urban
Baylor JR RHP Dillon Newman
Baylor JR RHP Trae Davis
Baylor rSR RHP Max Garner
Oklahoma State rSO RHP Jason Hursh
Texas Christian JR RHP Stefan Crichton
Kansas JR RHP Frank Duncan
Baylor JR RHP Miles Landry
Oklahoma JR RHP Kyle Hayes
Baylor SR RHP Kolt Browder
Kansas State JR LHP Gerardo Esquivel
Texas JR LHP Kirby Bellow
Texas Christian JR LHP Trevor Seidenberger
Baylor SR LHP Crayton Bare
Baylor JR LHP Brad Kuntz
Texas Christian JR RHP Nick Frey
Texas JR RHP Justin Peters
Kansas State JR LHP Jared Moore
Kansas rSR RHP Thomas Taylor
Texas Christian SR RHP Justin Scharf
Oklahoma SR LHP Jake Fisher
Texas Tech JR LHP Andre Wheeler
West Virginia JR RHP Ryan Tezak
Oklahoma JR LHP Ethan Carnes
Kansas State SR LHP Joe Flattery
Oklahoma JR RHP Kindle Ladd
Oklahoma State JR RHP Vince Wheeland
Kansas State rSO LHP/1B Shane Conlon
West Virginia SR RHP Dan Dierdorff
West Virginia rSO LHP Harrison Musgrave
West Virginia rJR LHP Marshall Thompson
West Virginia JR RHP Josh Harlow
Oklahoma State rSO LHP Tyler Nurdin
Kansas State SO RHP Nate Williams
West Virginia JR LHP Zach Bargeron
West Virginia JR RHP Corey Walter

I generally feel that making early proclamations on pitchers ends badly for the prognosticator. Maybe it’s because pitchers are inherently fickle beasts. Maybe it’s because sudden jumps in stuff can happen with changes in role and/or mechanics once that special something clicks. Maybe it’s because I don’t know nearly as much as I think I do about baseball. In any event, this year’s group of Big 12 pitchers is particularly confounding. The top five arms could all be switched around and I wouldn’t put up a fight. In fact, I juggled them around a few times myself just before hitting the Publish button.

After a good bit of internal debate, I leapfrogged Jonathan Gray over Andrew Mitchell for the top spot. Gray is a big, strong righthanded pitcher who can show up to four plus pitches on any given day. He’s good. Mitchell reminds me a little bit of Arkansas RHP Nolan Sanburn at this same point last year. He has the three-pitch mix needed to make it as a starting pitcher in pro ball. That’s a role he can potentially excel in, but I do worry some about his diminished fastball velocity as a starter. Corey Knebel earned the rare and beautiful FAVORITE distinction in my notes after his freshman season at Texas. Nothing since then has made me like him any less: good heat (91-94), nasty yet underutilized CB, good sinker. His changeup still needs work, but there’s a lot to like. Dillon Overton had a sensational 2012 season (9.68 K/9 | 1.69 BB/9 | 3.16 FIP | 122.2 IP) that got a little bit lost in the upperclassman 2012 draft shuffle. It’s now his turn to step out of Andrew Heaney’s shadow and get his due in 2013. Trey Teakell’s buzz word this spring will be projection. He’s already got a diverse four-pitch mix going for him, so teams will be excited to see if his obvious athleticism, easy velocity, and frame with ample room to grow combine to help him round into something truly great.

There are plenty of future relievers of note who should hear their names called on draft day. Randy McCurry has long been a favorite as an athletic two-way talent capable of reaching the mid-90s while flashing a plus breaking ball. Josh Urban can also hit the mid-90s, but below-average command and control has held him back to this point. Jason Hursh’s (another FAVORITE) return from Tommy John surgery didn’t quite go as planned last spring, but his raw stuff (97-98 peak FB with explosive movement down in zone, flashes above-average CB) rivals that of any pitcher in the conference when on. Stefan Crichton might be viewed as a starter for some, and rightfully so, but I like him best as a sinker/slider reliever at the next level. The best mix of present stuff, production, and projection from the next talent level down probably belongs to either Frank Duncan (well-rounded four-pitch mix, 8.41 K/9 last year, sturdy 6-4, 200 pound frame) or Kolt Browder (low-90s heat, occasional plus breaking ball, sweet baseball name). Kyle Hayes hasn’t yet had the opportunity to do it under the bright lights of college baseball, but the San Diego State and Howard JC transfer is one to watch. The fastest fastball I have on any of the underlined guys is 90 MPH, so you know they all find find ways with command, movement, and at least one above-average offspeed pitch apiece. There’s some solid bullpen upside there, hence the bonus points awarded for the lefties.

2013 MLB Draft Preview: Virginia Tech Hokies

2 Jan 2013 1:03 AM / Leave a comment

Most Intriguing Pre-Season 2013 MLB Draft Prospect(s)

1. JR 3B Chad Pinder
2. rJR OF Tyler Horan
3. JR RHP Brad Markey
4. JR LHP Eddie Campbell
5. SR RHP Joe Mantiply

For the millionth time, I’m not a college baseball expert. I don’t really know what teams are good and what teams will disappoint, and, to be honest, I don’t particularly care. I like prospects. For that reason, I like Virginia Tech. They have good prospects. Now common sense leads me to believe that, with some exceptions teams with good prospects, especially veteran prospects, tend to fare fairly well during the college baseball season. So it is my opinion as a newfound college baseball expert that Virginia Tech is going to be pretty good this year: seven legit position player prospects (plus speedy FR OF Saige Jenco) and a pitching staff with a half-dozen upperclassmen worth knowing. Let’s start with the best of those prospects.

It is way too early to start assigning draft grades, so take the following with a jumbo sized chunk of salt: if you’re a fan of a team in need of a third baseman of the future, then Chad Pinder is as good a non-first round name to follow as any. If my favorite team misses out on and/or goes a different direction on, say, Colin Moran in the mid-first, then I’d be more than happy with Pinder being the next man up within the round two to five range. Pinder’s defense at third is legitimately exciting to watch. He has really quick feet, a strong arm, and great instincts on the left side of the infield. In a pinch, I’d have no problem playing him up the middle at short, a la a young Ryan Zimmerman. As a hitter, his power is right where you want it for a corner infielder (20+ home run upside) and he’s shown an ability to make critical adjustments game to game as well as pitch to pitch. The big quibble would be his plate discipline — 15 BB/40 K last season — but I think that’s more of a byproduct of how he was pitched in 2012. Tyler Horan has more power, but not quite as strong a hit tool. He also is a corner outfielder only, potentially limited to left field, so the margin of error for his stick is more pronounced. The power is enticing enough that he’ll rightfully get drafted with the thought he’ll someday hold down an everyday outfield spot.

You can put the three Virginia Tech pitchers listed above in any order and I couldn’t find much to argue. I liked Markey a lot last year — he was my 446th overall draft prospect, after all — and I see no reason why I should turn on him now. The well-traveled junior throws three pitches for strikes (88-92 FB, 93 peak with a good CB and average CU). Campbell impressed on the Cape thanks to his crafty lefty repertoire that includes an upper-80s to low-90s FB (92 peak) and above-average curve. I’m more bearish on him than most, due to stuff that doesn’t blow me away and too frequent lapses in control. Joe Mantiply should be a solid senior sign thanks to a fastball between 88-92 fastball (notice a trend?), pro size (6-4, 215 pounds), and a pair of usable offspeed pitches.

rSR OF Andrew Rash and rJR C Chad Morgan are both veterans of the draft process, so the stakes ought to be pretty clear at this point. Rash’s huge righthanded power is enough for me to take a chance on him late in the draft, but I could see why teams may be hesitant to pull the trigger on a guy with contact issues and an inconsistent approach. He deserves credit for working himself into a playable right fielder. Questions about Morgan’s bat are even bigger – I had him pegged as the next great early round ACC catcher a few years back, but his game has badly stagnated. I think he can still defend the position with the best of them — at least on the college level — but that’s fairly self-evident by now. What scouts will be focusing in on this spring will be his swing – I’ve heard it has been modified and shortened since last season. On talent alone, both guys should be drafted. We’ll see if their production matches the hype in a few months.

SR RHP Jake Joyce has consistently performed out of the Virginia Tech bullpen (9.96 K/9 in 2011, 11.16 K/9 last year), so it wouldn’t be a shock to see a club that emphasizes prior production giving him a look this spring. Same could be said about SR RHP Tanner McIntyre, a pitcher who has done the job when called upon (10.16 K/9 last year) but still could be on the outside looking in come June if teams decide they can’t look past lack of size (5-9, 170 pounds) and pedestrian (by pro standards) stuff. You can go ahead and put 5-9, 175 pound SR RHP Clark Labitan in the same category.

2014 MLB Draft Name(s) to Know

1. SO C/OF Mark Zagunis
2. SO 1B/OF Sean Keselica

Mark Zagunis’ upside behind the plate has me all excited. I know, I know…I feel for a young Virginia Tech catcher not that long ago, (see above) and that hasn’t worked out all that well, but this time is different. Zagunis is a great athlete coming off a really impressive freshman season (.344/.432/.513) who can run, hit, and flash some serious power. His defense is what will have to be closely monitored, but I’m a believer. It’s not a comp because I’ve yet to see Zagunis in person (that changes this year, thankfully), but the scouting reports give off a little bit of a Josh Elander vibe. Keselica isn’t quite on the same level for me, but I know some who follow the Hokies more extensively than I disagree with that assessment. A little bit down the prospect line are SO 1B Brendon Hayden and SO 2B/SS Alex Perez. Hayden has size, strength, and power. Perez has a patient approach and good defensive tools. Both guys should be in the 2014 mix after building on their solid freshman seasons this spring.