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2012 MLB Draft Top 75 Prospect Big Board (Hitters Only)

Florida JR C Mike Zunino

College sluggers tend to be among the best known draft prospects each year, so listing the reasons why Zunino is one of the 2012 draft’s top prospects is little more than academic at this point: we know that he has huge power (25-35 HR upside) that is already showing up against big-time college pitching, plus arm strength with above-average accuracy, and leadership qualities not seen since the likes of [insert the leader of your favorite team and/or political party] . Concerns with Zunino are three-fold: 1) his approach leaves a little something to be desired, 2) his swing, while shortened somewhat in 2012, still can get too long at times, leaving him exposed against good breaking balls, and 3) he’s a catcher, so all inherent risks that come with the position (injury, developmental stagnation, etc.) apply. One comp (obligatory comps are evil and irresponsible and spread obfuscate rather than illuminate) for Zunino that I particularly like: former state of Florida college catcher (Hurricanes, not Gators) Charles Johnson. Sticking with the Florida theme, fellow Gator (I had not idea this guy went to Florida when I thought up this comp, how about that?) Mike Stanley makes for an interesting historical comp of some merit, though I doubt we’ll see the same kind of patience from Zunino that Stanley exhibited as a pro. So, realistically I think a reasonable floor is something like Johnson or former Royal Mike MacFarlane (defense, leadership, .180ish ISO, .330ish wOBA – again, we’re talking floor, so take the power projection with a grain of salt), with the upside of Stanley or Phil Nevin (minus the position switch), and the middle ground of a modern guy like Chris Iannetta. He’s not the prospect that Matt Wieters (love that guy) was back in 2008, but I think the comparison between Zunino and Wieters makes a heck of a lot more sense than the silly Buster Posey comp I’ve seen thrown out (though, to be fair, it is often dismissed fairly quickly by the “expert”) around the internet. I could see a few years for Zunino like Wieters’ 2011 age-25 season (.262/.328/.450 with 22 homers) before his career is out., and that could still be underselling his long-term power. You’d really like to see a “can’t miss” college bat with better command of the strike zone (see concern 1 above) as Zunino’s combined BB/K ratio over the past two seasons is just 47 to 72 (park/schedule adjusted), but in a draft with so many question marks at the top, the Florida catcher’s power, defense, and leadership make him a premium pro prospect.

OF Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia)

Buxton has been covered at length already, so I’ll try to keep this brief. When I told my dad that I had recently compared (via a scout friend) a high school hitter to Mike Schmidt on the site, the long-time Phillies fan looked at me like I was crazy. Again, I don’t think 500+ homers is in Buxton’s future — I’m going out on a big limb with that prediction, I know — but the swing setup (wide base, backed way off from the plate) and bat speed are not entirely dissimilar. The beautiful thing about a prospect like Buxton is that he doesn’t have to hit like a future Hall of Famer to have a legitimately great big league career. This is hardly an original thought, but, man, athletic center fielders with plus range and plus speed are a ton of fun; not only do they offer elite upside, but their defensive upside and speed (never slumps!) give them a much higher floor than almost any other prospect archetype. Just writing this up makes me want to go back and revise the list to push down the one-dimensional first basemen who are all challenged with the slimmest margins for error going forward. Buxton could “not hit” as a pro (there are limits to this, of course: we’re talking “not hit” like not hit like a clear-cut big leaguer, and not not hit like what would happen if I ever got 600 minor league plate appearances…”not hit” requires a certain baseline competence), and still play a meaningful role on a big league club. Buxton’s speed, arm, range, athleticism, and body are all in that hard to fathom top 5% of all baseball players on the planet. If you really believe in his bat — I think he’ll hit, but am less sure of his ultimate power output — then you take him first overall and don’t look back. His remaining tools are all so strong that he’s safely ensconced in this draft’s top ten even if certain scouting departments are less sure about his offensive future.

SS Carlos Correa (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)

Correa represents my mea culpa for underrating Manny Machado in 2010. Their scouting reports read very, very similar, and are best summed up by the abundance of “above-average” and “plus” sprinkled throughout. Correa can throw with the best of them, and his foot speed, bat speed, approach, and range are all well above-average. He’ll need plenty of at bats against quality pitching, so his drafting team will have to be patient, but his experience against high velocity arms is encouraging.

C Stryker Trahan (Acadiana HS, Louisiana)

We covered Trahan the other day (“if Swihart could run…”), but the beauty of his swing bears highlighting once again. I’m no scout, but I like watching hitters hit. It seems to me that the best hitters, especially when at their very best, let the ball get deep in the zone before unleashing the full fury of their barrel through the zone. There are times when it is best to open up early and jump on a fastball, but for the most part I like to see hitters stay back as long as possible, give themselves time to recognize the pitch type and location, and then use the whole field with each swing. You need a discerning eye and quick hands to pull off such a trick with any consistency, and Trahan has both in spades. He’s a really good ballplayer who happens to have tantalizing athletic gifts, and not just a great athlete getting by.

SS CJ Hinojosa (Klein Collins HS, Texas)

At his best, Hinojosa swings the bat with some of the most fluid yet chaotic yet silky smooth violence you’d ever like to see – his level swing and crazy bat speed epitomize the old John Wooten quote “Be quick but don’t hurry.”  Defensively, I think he’ll stick up the middle fairly easily, but he’s one of those “tweener” types for some. Tweener is normally a pejorative turn, but in this case I’d say that the two things that Hinojosa is between are average or better shortstop and potential Gold Glove winning third baseman. His strong commitment to Texas and a season-ending shoulder injury should push him down the board, but I’d take him in the first if I thought he could be convinced to sign.

2012 MLB Draft Top 75 Prospect Big Board (Hitters Only)

I only link it because that’s what I’m using as a jumping off point for these thoughts…

*** I feel a lot better about Buxton being an elite draft prospect (rather than just the best of an otherwise lackluster top half of the first round group) now that more information about his spring progress has been made publicly available, most notably with the reports filed by ESPN and the guys at Baseball America. Maybe that makes me a stupid dumb wannabe who has no business claiming to be a “scout” (good thing I’ve never once done that!), but I’m alright with that.

*** One fair criticism that I heard a lot of via email over the last week is my reliance on “old” scouting reports for high school prospects. I understand and appreciate the feedback, but there’s a method to my madness there. Anecdotally, it seems that prep players who struggle during the spring, for whatever reason, are continuously downgraded by pro teams. I’m not saying these pro teams are wrong per se; I’m merely suggesting that the recency effect is real and potentially detrimental to the larger goal of adding talent on draft day. I’m a big proponent of the simple idea that once a young player shows a tool, he owns it forever. (Usual caveats apply when it comes to “forever,” e.g. injury, age, sudden preference for professional cribbage, whatever). Additionally, so much of the information found online comes from a one time viewing of a prospect. Again, there’s nothing wrong with that — and it is something that I’ve done in the past, and will continue to do into the future — but it is worth keeping in mind when reading something written with absolute stone cold 100% authority. One game does not a scouting consensus make. It’s great to be have conviction, but greater to keep an open mind.

*** I also mentioned this on the actual big board post, but it bears repeating: by and large, injuries to draft prospects don’t really mean a whole heck of a lot to me. Sure, there’s some lost developmental time, and, yeah, it is nice to get those last looks at a player you might still be on the fence about, but the vast majority of first day caliber players have been on the scouting radar for years. A few weeks or months of lost time really shouldn’t shift anybody’s draft board too drastically. I suppose that’s a long way of saying that Lucas Giolito was the top prospect in this year’s draft for me before his injury, and he remains in the top spot today. Barring something unforeseen, Giolito would be my recommendation as this draft’s top player. Just wanted to get that out here in writing sooner rather than later.

*** “If Swihart could run, he’d be Stryker Trahan” – a smarter baseball man than I, who has seen both prospects a number of times in the last calendar year, shared that with me recently.  He could have also probably have said something like “if Swihart was seen as signable, he’d be Stryker Trahan,” but that’s not as fun. The comparison between the two athletic prep catchers is only natural, but I give the edge to the Trahan, the shiny new toy. In comparing the two, I think Trahan’s swing works better, has more power upside, and, though it ought to go without saying, possesses a vastly superior baseball name. I have a terrible memory, so it took looking up the last few big boards done for each draft here on the site to remember the “original” (note: baseball existed well before 2009) version of this prospect: 2010 draft prospect Justin O’Conner. Well, even that is probably a lie now that I’ve taken the extra step of going back to 2009 to see all of the ridiculous high school catching prospects who fit this profile (Wil Myers, Luke Bailey, 2012 prospect Jonathan Walsh). I feel a tangent coming on…

*** The previous bullet point got me thinking about what a combined 2009-2012 (as long as I’ve been doing this site) big board might look like. Below is my best shot. Keep in mind the following things: players are ranked as they were seen as prospects heading into the draft only, players are listed at the position they were expected to play professionally, and, most importantly, my memory is pretty terrible so my views on certain guys might be off, especially the 2009 prospects.  In other words, my awful ranking of Manny Machado sticks with me (to say nothing of my infamous — to me, anyway — Mike Trout whiff), Dustin Ackley is viewed as a prospective outfielder and Grant Green a shortstop, and, outside of the top few names, it is really, really hard to figure out who the better draft prospect was from years ago when you can barely remember what you ate for breakfast five hours ago.

1. Community College of Southern Nevada FR C Bryce Harper
2. Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon
3. North Carolina JR CF Dustin Ackley
4. OF Bubba Starling (Gardner-Edgerton HS, Kansas)
5. Florida JR C Mike Zunino
6. OF Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia)
7. Harvard Westlake HS (CA) OF Austin Wilson
8. SS Carlos Correa (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
9. Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL) 3B Nick Castellanos
10. C Stryker Trahan (Acadiana HS, Louisiana)
11. C Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, New Mexico)
12. 3B Bobby Borchering (Bishop Verot HS, Florida)
13. Southern California SS Grant Green
14. CF Donavan Tate (Cartersville HS, Georgia)
15. C Justin O’Conner (Cowan HS, Indiana)
16. SS Francisco Lindor (Montverde Academy, Florida)
17. OF Josh Bell (Jesuit College Prep School, Texas)
18. OF Everett Williams (McCallum HS, Texas)
19. SS Manny Machado (Brito Private HS, Florida)
20. SS CJ Hinojosa (Klein Collins HS, Texas)
21. Oregon State SO C Andrew Susac
22. OF Brandon Nimmo (Cheyenne East HS, Wyoming)
23. OF Albert Almora (Mater Academy, Florida)
24. Connecticut JR OF George Springer
25. Clemson JR 3B Richie Shaffer
26. SS Trevor Story (Irving HS, Texas)
27. 3B Javier Baez (Arlington County Day HS, Florida)
28. Georgia Southern JR OF Victor Roache
29. Bishop Blanchet HS (WA) OF Josh Sale
30. LSU JR OF Jared Mitchell

*** If I had to re-rank based on present prospect value, Harper would remain the slam dunk number one. After that, chaos. Well, probably Machado, and maybe Ackley – I could be wrong, but I feel like a swap of those two players would be turned down by each team. Anyway, we have Harper, Machado, Ackley…then chaos! I like looking back and comparing somewhat similar prospects. In the battle for top four-year college bat, Rendon and Ackley  remains a huge toss-up (give me Ackley by a hair, but he’s an all-time personal favorite going back to his freshman year). Choosing between recent top prep outfielders Starling and Buxton is a matter of personal taste (more power for Bubba, Buxton’s speed and athleticism gives him the higher floor…with similar, but different, upsides, I’d give Buxton a slight edge). The only name that truly makes me cringe is probably Everett Williams – he’s a long way away from being a “bust,” but the word disappointment certainly comes to mind. Guys like Borchering (debatable, I guess), Green, Tate, O’Conner, and Sale don’t look great now, but were all perfectly defensible at the time. What this list lacks is the collection of names that didn’t rank highly on my personal pre-draft lists, for better or worse. For worse, we definitely have the aforementioned Trout. The absence of prospects like Tony Sanchez, Jiovanni Mier, Zack Cox (debatable), and Christian Colon is the best, I think.

A few other general thoughts from my earliest lists and then I swear I’m done patting myself on the back/admitting how dumb I was/am. Back in 2009 I liked Scooter Gennett more than most, Mier far less. There were many nasty emails (fine, just one) who said I should just give this whole thing up because I had Sanchez, who I saw play 80% of his college games, far too low (54th best prospect in 2009).  I stuck with Jonathan Singleton despite his down senior year (again, once you show those tools then you own them forever – Singleton’s big bat was not forgotten). In 2010, I was all-in on Kolbrin Vitek and Rob Segedin, preferring both to the more acclaimed Cox. Outfielders with range and patience like Tyler Holt and Trent Mummey were also gigantic favorites. My low ranking of Colon (45th) garned a similar nasty email to the one I got the year before about Tony Sanchez. Last year I was so much in my own personal bubble that I have no clue which players I had ranked higher or lower than most. I consider that progress.

Lists stink because they simply aren’t all that informative. Sure, this particular list shows that, for example, I slightly prefer Rahier to Dahl, all else being equal, but without the rationale explaining the process, then there really isn’t a ton of value added to something that otherwise looks like any other cut-and-paste job of one of the dozens of lists floating around the internet at any given time. Long story short, this is just the beginning. The list itself, though unimpressive to look at, is the byproduct of hours upon hours of work, but, again, it is only the beginning. Explanations will be added throughout the week, so check back in over time to read the hows and whys of player placement. In the meantime, feel free to send along a note either in the comments or via email (robozga at gmail dot com) and I’ll get to it as soon as possible. Four quick notes because I apparently hate getting to bed at a reasonable hour:

* Zunino at one was much more of a slam dunk than I had anticipated when I started to build the actual list one month ago. That said, while I think his floor (definite big league catcher, borderline starter at worst) is considerable, I think the risks with any young catcher need to be put back in focus. Recent “can’t miss” college catching prospects like Posey (injury) and Wieters (“slow start” to his career, at least so goes the unfortunate perception of many) have had early pro careers that highlight some of the ups and downs young catchers go through as they transition to the pro game. Using a pair of top ten big league catchers doesn’t really show the point I’m trying to make — I think (hope?) I have it explained better in the forthcoming rationale for the picks — so maybe Zunino at number one makes even more sense than I think.

** I’m nervous about putting Buxton so high without ever having seen him in person since last summer. Rarely do I trust my own eyes in this way — long-time readers should remember that one of the early goals of this site was to consolidate all of the draft information from the many bright minds who really know the game — but the mixture of a lack of any overwhelming evidence about his superiority over the rest of the prep class (his tools are outstanding, just so we’re clear – I’m not hating here) and, yeah, a little bit of my growing cockiness has led me to this point. I guess the question for me remains pretty simple: what separates Buxton from all the other athletic prep outfielders with plus tools like Almora, Dahl, Brinson, and Winston? Again, I’m no scout, but I don’t see the hit tool/raw power for Buxton that clearly trumps what those other guys have. So why has Buxton been the helium guy all spring above the rest? I’m a little nervous there’s some groupthink going here, and it seemed that even the comps jumped up from Austin Jackson to an idealized combination of the Upton brothers practically overnight. Nervous or not, he’s still the pick for the second best position player in the country, so it isn’t like I’m downplaying his ability. Just being that guy, I guess.

*** Ah, nevermind. I wrote this back on 8/15/11: “We could talk about the wildest comp I’ve ever heard in my life — what high school outfielder’s swing had a salty veteran scout muttering the name of a Hall of Fame third baseman as an honest to goodness comp? — or we could talk about how I couldn’t place Lance McCullers similarity to somebody I “knew” (turned out to be pretty embarrassing, but the rising senior looks a lot like the actor Penn Badgley in a certain light) until well after the fact.” A scout in Chicago actually said that Buxton reminded him of Mike Schmidt as a hitter. As a native Philadelphian, I hate to admit that I’m just a tad too young to fully appreciate the reference, at least in terms of being a regular baseball watcher during Schmidt’s playing career, but a comp like that, mentioned by one scout (who was otherwise negative all day long) and backed up by another, isn’t something thrown around lightly. Buxton won’t hit 548 homers in his career, but as a point of reference (bat speed, bat speed, bat speed), it is fun to use as a starting point to let the imagination wander.

**** As a general prospect rule, I don’t care about injuries. You show a skill once, you own it. The injured players who rank highly here don’t deserve to get knocked down just because of some missed time in their draft year.

1. Florida JR C Mike Zunino
2. OF Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia)
3. SS Carlos Correa (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)
4. C Stryker Trahan (Acadiana HS, Louisiana)
5. SS CJ Hinojosa (Klein Collins HS, Texas)
6. OF Albert Almora (Mater Academy, Florida)
7. Clemson JR 3B Richie Shaffer
8. Georgia Southern JR OF Victor Roache
9. 3B Trey Williams (Valencia HS, California)
10. 3B Tanner Rahier (Palm Desert HS, California)
11. OF David Dahl (Oak Mountain HS, Alabama)
12. TCU JR C Josh Elander
13. 3B/OF Joey Gallo (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada)
14. OF Courtney Hawkins (Mary Carroll HS, Texas)
15. C/2B Alex Bregman (Albuquerque Academy, New Mexico)
16. SS/2B Gavin Cecchini (Barbe HS, Louisiana)
17. Texas Tech JR OF Barrett Barnes
18. OF Lewis Brinson (Coral Springs HS, Florida)
19. Arkansas JR 3B Matt Reynolds
20. Buffalo JR C Tom Murphy
21. Oklahoma City JR C Dane Phillips
22. Florida JR SS Nolan Fontana
23. Arizona State JR SS Deven Marrero
24. OF Jameis Winston (Hueytown HS, Alabama)
25. 3B Rio Ruiz (Bishop Amat HS, California)
26. Purdue JR C Kevin Plawecki
27. Texas A&M JR OF Tyler Naquin
28. Kentucky JR C Luke Maile
29. 3B/OF David Thompson (Westminster Christian HS, Florida)
30. UCLA JR OF Jeff Gelalich
31. Chipola SO OF Andrew Toles
32. 3B Addison Russell (Pace HS, Florida)
33. Florida State JR 1B Jayce Boyd
34. South Carolina JR 1B Christian Walker
35. OF Nick Williams (Galveston Ball HS, Texas)
36. OF Anthony Alford (Petal HS, Mississippi)
37. Walters State CC SO OF/1B Marcus Davis
38. Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli
39. Virginia JR SS Stephen Bruno
40. Stanford JR 3B Stephen Piscotty
41. St. Mary’s JR 3B Patrick Wisdom
42. Cal Poly JR OF Mitch Haniger
43. Jacksonville JR OF Adam Brett Walker
44. SS/3B Corey Seager (Northwest Cabarrus HS, North Carolina)
45. 3B Carson Kelly (Westview HS, Oregon)
46. Florida State JR 2B Devon Travis
47. Florida JR 1B Brian Johnson
48. SS/2B Adrian Marin (Gulliver Prep HS, Florida)
49. Georgia Tech SO OF Kyle Wren
50. Miami JR SS Stephen Perez
51. Stony Brook JR OF Travis Jankowski
52. Florida State SR OF James Ramsey
53. 1B Ron Miller (Serra HS, California)
54. Florida SR 1B Preston Tucker
55. Texas JR OF Jonathan Walsh
56. Miami SR C Peter O’Brien
57. North Carolina JR 2B/SS Tommy Coyle
58. Stanford JR 2B/SS Kenny Diekroeger
59. Virginia JR SS Chris Taylor
60. OF Jesse Winker (Olympia HS, Florida)
61. OF Fernelys Sanchez (George Washington HS, New York)
62. Louisiana State JR OF Raph Rhymes
63. Georgia Tech JR OF Brandon Thomas
64. Baylor JR 1B Max Muncy
65. OF Rhett Wiseman (Buckingham Browne & Nichols HS, Massachusetts)
66. OF Josh Henderson (Home School, Virginia)
67. Orange Coast JC SO C Stefan Sabol
68. OF Vahn Bozoian (Ayala HS, California)
69. 3B Daniel Robertson (Upland HS, California)
70. Stanford JR OF Jacob Stewart (2012)
71. Rice rJR OF Jeremy Rathjen (2012)
72. Jacksonville JR OF Dan Gulbransen
73. Vanderbilt JR OF Connor Harrell
74. St. John’s JR OF Jeremy Baltz
75. 2B Chase Nyman (Pascagoula HS, Mississippi)

Also receiving votes Missouri JR OF Blake Brown, Stanford JR OF Tyler Gaffney, Cypress Ranch HS (Texas) 2B/OF Leon Byrd, King HS (Florida) 1B Keon Barnum, TCU SR OF Jason Coats, Hamilton HS 3B Mitch Nay (Arizona), Providence HS (North Carolina) 3B Jackson Campana, Alabama SR OF Taylor Dugas, Farragut HS (Tennessee) SS AJ Simcox, Texas-Arlington JR OF Preston Beck, and James Madison HS (California) 3B Corey Oswalt.