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Philadelphia Phillies 2012 MLB Draft Review

13 Sep 2012 11:00 PM / Leave a comment

Josh Ludy is a shining example of why college baseball is a smart option for some players. Ignoring the fact that he wasn’t a highly regarded prospect out of high school, signing at that point in his development would have been big trouble for Ludy’s career. It took him two years to get regular at bats for Baylor. When he finally got his big chance his junior year, his offensive output was met with an emphatic “meh.” Bet you didn’t think you could make “meh” emphatically, but you can. If Ludy had done what he had done in college in the pros, then the odds of him getting a pink tag in his locker at some point along the way would have been high. In college, however, you get more rope. Not a ton of rope, mind you, but more than in professional ball. With one more season to prove himself a legitimate professional talent, Ludy stepped up his game in a big way. That’s the good news for Ludy.

The counter-point to that heartwarming tale is the cruel reality that it is smart to beware college seniors who beat up on teenage arms fresh out of high school. When a college senior dominates Rookie ball, it is expected. Nobody raises an eyebrow when a grown man pummels teenage pitching. The competition at most major college conferences is comparable, especially when you look at most schools Friday/Saturday night starting pitchers. Ludy’s story is a good one, but there’s still a long way between the joy of a successful draft day and reaching the big leagues. He did a nice job in low-A Lakewood as a 22-year old, so perhaps the adjustments made over the years at Baylor have more meaning than initially thought. His story of perseverance makes him a fun guy to root for, in any case. I think the gains he has made as a hitter are legit, but it’ll be his glove, which ranges from adequate to unplayable on any given day, that determines his long range professional future. I like fellow college catcher Chad Carman and think he has value as an experienced backstop capable of guiding young pitching through the ups and downs of professional baseball. Whether or not he ever reaches the highest level remains to be seen – like any double-digit round prospect, it’s a long shot – but it seems likely he’ll provide value to whatever team he plays on regardless of what shows up in the box score.

Regular readers of the site know that I’m a big fan of comps. I think comps are a great way of bridging the gap between obsessive minor league and amateur baseball fans (that’s me and likely anybody reading this by choice) and casual big league only fans. A good comp gives a frame of reference – could be about tools, body type, mechanics, potential production, almost anything – that sheds light on prospects that often play in relative darkness. I understand the complaint that comps can create unrealistic expectations for players. I think that expectations on certain guys can get out of hand regardless of what I, or, more likely, anybody with a wider reach than I says about a particular prospect. Blaming the comp itself is an unnecessary copout. Expectations for prospects can be directly tied to what the industry leaders write. Comps or not, players ranked highly and praised publicly are viewed as future superstars who will hit the ground running from day one of their big league careers. If anything, I believe comps, when done responsibly, can actually help create a more realistic set of possible outcomes for any given player. Take the pre-draft note I heard on Chris Serritella. A scout who saw both players said that Serritella reminded him of Paul Goldschmidt at similar points in their respective development. If the reader’s take away from that is Serritella = Goldschmidt, then somewhere along the way the ball has been dropped. That was not the intention of the original note, but I can see why somebody might read Goldschmidt’s name in connection with Serritella and just run with the comp.

This is where it pays to be responsible whenever throwing out comps. I should have been clearer with the original note. There are some vague similarities between Serritella and Goldschmidt, but also some pretty huge differences (e.g. handedness). The comp originated based on what I had hoped was a fairly simple question: of all the college bat-only prospects in this year’s draft, which player could surprise in the same way Paul Goldschmidt once did? Serritella was the answer I received, but that doesn’t mean Serritella will ever necessarily achieve what Goldschmidt has. It is worth noting that Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t the Paul Goldschmidt we now know back when he was a draft prospect. Prospect development is weird and unpredictable, after all.

At the same age as Serritella, Goldschmidt socked 35 dingers in high-A (Cal League, but still), adding up to a total of 53 pro home runs to that point. Serritella has hit six homers in Rookie ball. I like Serritella because I’m a sucker for watching good power hitters hit, but it doesn’t take a genius to see he has a good amount of ground to make up if he ever wants to approach such a lofty comp. Luckily, he won’t have to turn himself into an everyday starter at first base to provide value as a fourth round pick. Serritella can have a long, fruitful career as a bench bat if he keeps up a good to very good yet not great hitting path. Or, more optimistically, Serritella could find himself in a first base timeshare where he can just mash righthanded pitching whenever the opportunity arises. Most teams shy away from platoons these days, especially at glamor hitting spots like first base, but that doesn’t really change how Serritella could potentially be useful. A smart team will find a way to utilize his talents, assuming he hits as expected.

William Carmona has serious power in his bat. Unfortunately, a below-average approach limits the utility of his one plus tool. His defensive shortcomings – bad in an outfield corner, worse at third base – lock him into first base over the long run. As an org guy who can help a minor league lineup win some games with his pop he’s fine, but very few players with his scouting profile ever reach the highest level. Honestly, I can’t think of any.

Cameron Perkins has a realistic floor of four-corners (LF/RF/3B/1B) bench bat, especially with the way he sees lefthanded pitching. The dearth of starting caliber big league third basemen makes him more of a prospect than he might otherwise be. If he gets his act together on defense – I say it like it is really as simple as that – then he has a chance to get regular time at the hot corner. I can see the future in Philadelphia now: a Cody Asche/Cameron Perkins platoon at third base. Third base has been an organizational black hole for almost fifteen years, so forgive me for fantasizing about Cody and Cameron mashing their way to the top together. I will say this: in much the same way Asche seemingly came out of nowhere this season, Perkins could do the same in 2013. I’m not crazy enough to predict that Perkins will go from Rookie ball to tearing up AA next year, but even suggesting the possibility is exciting. Perkins has some big time sleeper upside. For the record, Asche was the 2011 MLB Draft’s 170^th best prospect (according to all-knowing me) while Perkins came in at 98^th in 2012. That isn’t the best way to compare the two as draft prospects — last year’s draft had a lot more depth across the board – so I’ve included Asche’s brief pre-draft report below:

“Really like his approach, but have been underwhelmed by his overall package thus far” – that’s what I had in my notes re: Asche coming into the year. I’m happy to say that I’m no longer underwhelmed and now considered myself appropriately whelmed by his performance. I wasn’t alone in worrying that he wouldn’t stick at third coming into the year, but am now ready to go out on a limb and say I think his athleticism and instincts make him underrated at the position. Despite his very powerful throwing arm he’ll never be a good defender at third, but if his plus raw power would look really good if he can at least play at or around average defense as a pro.

Interesting to compare that to Perkins’ pre-draft report (found below). Here are their respective junior season park/schedule adjusted numbers for good measure:

Asche: .337/.437/.668 – 36 BB/39 K – 208 AB
Perkins: .406/.448/.613 – 12 BB/16 K – 217 AB

There’s not really a direct comparison to make between the two prospects, just some food for thought. Third base is a strength in the Phillies minor league system, if you can believe it. Keeping that in mind, I think Perkins could start the season in low-A Lakewood. If the Phillies aren’t as committed to keeping Perkins at third as I hope, then he could get challenged with the high-A Clearwater assignment, a la Asche last year. Maikel Franco should be getting the vast majority of time at third base for the Threshers, so Perkins would be best served in Lakewood if having him play third every day is the desired outcome. There will be an opening at AA Reading, but that’s a major stretch for a first full year starting assignment for a position player taken outside of the first round.

Tim Carver is a warm body who can catch the ball consistently at short. He’s not a big leaguer, but he can still give a professional organization some value. It never hurts having a sure-handed shortstop fielding grounders behind young pitching. The selection of Zach Green genuinely caught me by surprise. After getting over the initial shock, I can at least see what the Phillies were thinking: interesting defensive tools that play up due to excellent instincts and an advanced bat for a prep infielder. He played mostly third after signing, but I think he’s best left to fend for himself at short. The potential glut of third basemen in the system – man it feels weird writing that — has a tiny something to do with it, but it has more to do with Green’s good enough range and hands. It’s possible he’ll keep growing and overshoot the position anyway, but leaving him up the middle makes him a really interesting prospect rather than just another lottery ticket.

You can flip a coin between Perkins and Andrew Pullin to decide which position player drafted by the Phillies is the better bet going forward. The two were actually ranked back-to-back on my final big board: 98^th for Perkins, 99^th for Pullin. Pullin’s professional switch to second base gives him the edge currently as the best 2012 MLB Draft Phillies position player prospect. Sometimes it is harder to write a lot about favorite prospects because the prose can get a little too flowery and optimistic, so I’ll try to keep it brief with Pullin. Simply put, Pullin has star potential at second base. He won’t wow you with his tools, but he’ll still find a way to leave you walking away impressed. He’s extremely well-rounded for a young player, working deep counts yet always coming out on the positive ledger of the patient vs passive approach to hitting. He’s obviously a work in progress in the infield, but there’s little doubt that he has the hands, feet, and arm to make the conversion a success. The thought of him working as a double play combination with Roman Quinn playing to his right at Lakewood (Low-A) at some point next season makes me very happy. Keeping in mind everything I said about comps earlier, the Pullin/Quinn pairing up the middle looks a little bit like the Chase Utley/Jimmy Rollins duo. Utley and Rollins will both finish their careers as rock solid members of the Hall of Very Good, so projecting any prospect to someday play at that level is likely an exercise in futility. But it never hurts to dream, right?

The Dylan Cozens selection was widely panned by the industry leaders in the days that followed the draft. The impressive power, patience, and speed he showed as an 18-year old in the GCL shouldn’t be enough to quiet down those who initially opposed the pick, but I hope it puts to rest the idea that Cozens will never ever make it in pro ball. Cozens was a victim of both limited exposure and easily attainable information this spring. I think he makes for an excellent study in how opinions are formed in the online draft community. There’s such a fine line between trusting the data, empirical or otherwise, attained throughout the draft process and trusting the people within big league scouting staffs who evaluate amateur players for a living.

I don’t think one should like a pick simply because a certain team valued a player highly. It can be part of the conversation, but not the entire basis of liking or disliking a move. This phenomenon seems most common with minor league players, as certain teams (e.g. Tampa over the past few years, Texas currently) have such a strong track record of developing talent that it seems their players get a boost in rankings whether they deserve it or not. It also happens with the draft: see the fawning over any prep arm selected by Logan White and the Dodgers from a few years ago.

While I don’t think one should automatically like a pick because a certain scouting department made it, I do think there is some logic to the idea. It is alright to take a step back and try to consider what the drafting team knows that the general public might not. A few in the business appear to be of the mindset that it is best to form an opinion early and then stick to it no matter what evidence is uncovered along the way. A team drafting a player you ranked 239^th (as I ranked Cozens) before the draft with the 77^th overall pick doesn’t make anybody right or wrong. It is, however, a data point to be considered when reassessing the player. Ignoring the possibility that you might have misjudged the player initially negates any possibility for growth as an analyst of the sport. What did the Phillies see that I didn’t? What did they know that I didn’t? If after doubling back and re-researching the prospect still leads to the original conclusion on the player, so be it. But to simply dismiss the pick as a massive overdraft is missing an opportunity to do this job better.

I don’t get a chance to see every player in person; even if I did there wouldn’t be a great deal of value to come out of the limited looks from my admittedly amateur eye. Too many prospect writers seem to have made this industry an either or proposition in recent years. Either you go out and see prospects and write “scouting reports,” or you do your best as an aggregator of as many valuable sources as you can. Forgive me if I’m tilting at windmills here, but, really, what’s the harm in doing both? Trust your own opinion, but seek out others to either support or refute what you think you already know. I love going to games and watching video above all else, but I’m not foolhardy enough to think that my own view is the final word. I rely a great deal on my own little web of sources throughout the game. I’d also be lying if I said that I didn’t read and listen to what the industry leaders report on amateur prospects. When Aaron Fitt writes about a college pitcher sitting 88-92 with an above-average slider, that’s information that I can eventually use to help build a fuller picture of a prospect. I literally see no downside to this approach. Alright, I feel better. Let’s move on.

We’ll never know for sure if Cozens was “overdrafted” because we don’t have every team’s big board at our disposal. For all we know, Cozens may have been taken with the very next pick after Philadelphia at 77 if the Phillies decided to pass. All we know for sure is that the Phillies had him down as being worth at least a second round pick, possibly higher. That doesn’t make him good, bad, or anything in between, but, again, it is a viable data point to consider when evaluating him as a prospect. I compared Cozens to Wallace Gonzalez before the draft, but I now think it safe to say that Cozens is a far more athletic prospect who is also more advanced as a hitter. His defense will be something to watch closely, especially if he still has some growing to do in his 6-6, 235 pound frame. I’ve now heard him compared to what Aaron Judge, a potential first round pick from Fresno State, looked like from both an athletic standpoint and as a hitter (opposite handedness) coming out of high school. That would put Cozens’ upside at big league regular or better, depending on your current view of Judge. I’m cautiously optimistic about Cozens’ future.

Steven Golden fits the old Phillies mold of prep outfield prospect. He’s very athletic, a good runner, and an even better defender. The jury is still out on how much power he’ll grow into over the long run. As mentioned in his pre-draft report, I do like his hit tool – he has a far more balanced swing than the typical toolsy high school prospect – more than most I’ve talked to and read. The trouble with projecting high school bats like Golden (i.e. leadoff-type hitters) is that there’s really no telling what kind of plate discipline they’ll show once they get going in pro ball. There are a few indicators to watch out for from a scouting standpoint while they are still playing high school and summer ball, but plate discipline remains the toughest skill to project with any young amateur. There have been three big league players with the surname Golden (Jim, Mike, Roy), so the race to become number four is officially on. Steven will face still competition from last year’s second round pick by the Cubs, Reggie. Both are long shots.

Shane Watson and Mitchell Gueller will forever be linked together in the minds of fans associating the two supplemental first round picks as a package deal. At least that’s how I see it, anyway. Gueller’s fastball is on par with Watson’s, but his breaking ball isn’t as strong at present. A quick categorization of the two puts Watson as more of a polished pitcher (i.e. more pitchability, more refined stuff, better idea of how to put away hitters, etc.) and Gueller as more of an athletic project. That isn’t meant to downplay Watson’s ceiling; the popular Brett Myers comps speak to his mid-rotation or better upside.

One key thing both players share is a late season velocity spike that helped vault their draft stock considerably. Watson went from low-90s peaks to hitting 96. Gueller did the same. One of the interesting subplots to track with Gueller is how his desire to hit will impact his professional future. The Phillies gave him 900,000+ reasons to forget about hitting for the time being, but you have to wonder if his mind will drift back to life in the batter’s box if/when he struggles on the mound. That’s largely baseless conjecture on my end, so feel free to dismiss it if you like. I think there’s a strong argument that Gueller is the superior long-range prospect, especially if you’re all about upside – something about these cold weather pitchers with fewer miles on arm and extremely athletic builds – but the relative safety of Watson gives him the slim advantage. The fact that two really strong young pitching prospects will likely rank closer to 15 than 5 on most offseason organizational prospect rankings is a testament to the quality depth the Phillies have brought in over the past few seasons. I have Watson and Gueller each behind the lefthanded one-two punch of Jesse Biddle and Adam Morgan, likely behind righthanders Ethan Martin, Trevor May, and Jon Pettibone, and ahead of a large group of intriguing future late game relievers like Kenneth Giles, Lisalberto Bonilla, and, unfortunately yet inevitably, Brody Colvin.

Hoby Milner has all of the elements of recent Phillies mid- to late-round lefthanded pitching college steals. That’s what I originally wrote before going back and checking the last decade of Phillies drafts. Turns out they do seem to make a point of targeting a college lefthander or two within the draft’s first few rounds, but the success rate isn’t as high as I had imagined. It’s still very good, sure, but not quite as infallible as my memory wanted me to believe. Names like Justin Blaine (6^th round) and Dan Brauer (6^th round) are among the swings and misses. Phillies brass has to hope Milner’s more JA Happ and Adam Morgan than Bryan Morgado and Matthew Way, to say nothing of the worthy yet failed gamble on Joe Savery. I liked Milner a lot, ranking him over 100 spots higher on my pre-draft list than where he was actually drafted and noting that I think he’ll be a better pro than collegiate player. His body still has room to either add a few ticks to his peak fastball (from 92-93 peak to 95-96), gain more consistency on his sitting velocity (even if he moves from his current mid- to upper-80s to 88-91 that’s a good thing), or, in a perfect world, both. He has the potential for three above-average pitches (FB/CB/CU) that should help him start for the big club down the line. I don’t think this is necessarily a bold prediction, but all that is keeping him away from truly reaching his pro potential could be a better workout program, good pro coaching, and a more responsibly managed workload. Combine all that with his natural talent and he’ll be the first Phillies draft pick from 2012 to reach the big leagues.

Kevin Brady is another potential pitcher who should be better in pro ball than he showed in college. I’m typically a let the pitcher start until he proves he can’t kind of guy, but I think letting Brady stay in the bullpen and fire away is probably the best course of action. He could be a part of an intriguing High-A bullpen that should also include hard throwers Kenneth Giles and recent position player convert Tim Kennelly. Brady’s upside is likely middle relief; in fact, to use a current Phil as a point of comparison, he reminds me some of a more svelte Josh Lindblom.

The Phillies grabbed two more college arms with some relief upside in Zach Cooper and Jeb Stefan. Cooper lacks the prototypical size teams often search for, but he has plenty of arm strength, a good hard slider, and an average changeup. His ERA was exceptional in 34.2 IP (1.30) between Rookie ball and the Low-A, but his peripherals (6.49 K/9 and 4.56 SIERA) aren’t as exciting. Quick and less than thorough research shows that there has never been a player named Jeb to play big league baseball. Jeb Stefan probably won’t be the first, but he has a nice fastball (94 peak) and good size. Like Cooper, he likely lacks the one knockout pitch to make it as a big league reliever.

I happened to write up the Phillies and Yankees draft reviews back-to-back. That statement alone isn’t particularly interesting, but the timing gave my brain the chance to mash up the two drafts over and over again. The conclusion: these two franchises drafted very, very similarly. I get that you could probably play a similar game with any two random teams – ooh, toolsy outfielders and mature college bats…what are the odds of that in a draft with hundreds of players of each type? – but I happened to notice a connection between Philadelphia and New York, so, darnit, I’m going to run with it. Intriguing outfield to second base project? Big conference college catcher with power? Both teams picked them. High school hitter who has seen time at both first and the outfield? Of course. Hulking lefthanded college slugger? You got it. Freak athlete prep outfielder? Highly regarded high school arms at the top of the draft? Check and check. I favor Pullin’s youth, Peter O’Brien’s pedigree, Nathan Mikolas’ bat, Serritella’s well-roundedness, Austin Aune’s pedigree, and Ty Hensley’s present stuff, so that gives the one-to-one battles to New York. The rest of each team’s draft, however, tells a different story: Perkins and Green are better than any drafted Yankee infielder, and I’d rather have the Phils pitching triumvirate of Gueller/Milner/Brady than New York’s Black/Lail/Goody, though that one is closer than I would have guessed a few months ago. When you step back and look at each team’s respective draft, you see two teams with fairly similar draft day personalities. This entire paragraph is likely full of things that interest only me, but I suppose that’s the beauty of complete editorial control.

Yankees review will be up Monday. Enjoy the weekend, everybody.

8.278 C Josh Ludy (Baylor)

44. Baylor SR C Josh Ludy: above-average present power, strong, compact build; has improved in two major areas this spring – first, his questionable glove now has a chance to be average with continued work, and second, his hit tool, previously below-average, has improved just enough to put his power to use thanks to a cleaned up swing; strong arm; good approach; not sure he has the defensive chops to work as a backup, but power and physical strength are intriguing; 5-10, 210 pounds

24.758 C Chad Carman (Oklahoma City)

61. Oklahoma City rSR C Chad Carman: plus defender who defends well enough to warrant late-round consideration as potential backup catching option; age (23 as of May 9) works against him, but still could be of value to a team in need of a quality, professional presence to work with young pitching in low-minors; 5-10, 185 pounds

4.158 1B Chris Serritella (Southern Illinois)

15. Southern Illinois rJR 1B Chris Serritella: despite longish swing, still shows good bat speed capable of hitting big velocity; when everything is working, his swing is one of the prettiest in amateur ball; plus power potential; above-average defender; strong arm; slow even by first baseman standards; strong hit tool; heard a scout compare him developmentally to current Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt during his college days; recovered from broken hamate injury with little to no apparent loss in power; like almost every other player on this list, the road to a starting first base job is paved with obstacles – you never want to rule out players with his kind of raw power, but the most likely positive outcome is a bench bat/platoon player; 6-3, 200 pounds

11.368 1B William Carmona (Stony Brook)

117. Stony Brook JR OF William Carmona: plus raw power; below-average plate discipline; poor defender at present with below-average range, so a move to 3B, where I’m not sure he’d be much better, may be necessary; plus arm strength – has hit 94 off mound; 6-0, 225 pounds

5.188 2B Andrew Pullin (Centralia HS, WA)

16. OF Andrew Pullin (Centralia HS, Washington): above-average arm; above-average speed; big raw power, but inconsistent in swing setup; more solid across the board than a standout in one area; little bit of Utley in swing; 6-0, 185 pounds; L/L

19.608 SS Tim Carver (Arkansas)

76. Arkansas rSR SS Tim Carver: similar to teammate and double-play partner Bo Bigham in that both are solid, high character college guys with little professional upside; gets in trouble trying to do too much at the plate at times; good speed; steady defender; 6-0, 185 pounds

3.125 3B Zach Green (Jesuit HS, CA)

21. SS Zach Green (Jesuit HS, California): good defensive instincts, first step is always right on; strong hit tool; average speed; average at best arm; seen as a future 3B, but not sure he arm for it – think he can stay at SS anyway; 6-3, 205 pounds

6.218 3B Cameron Perkins (Purdue)

15. Purdue JR 3B Cameron Perkins: above-average power upside; interesting profile as a hitter: he’s a well-known hacker, but with low strikeout totals and a well above-average ability to hit for contact; average speed; average defender; could be very good in RF; lets ball get very deep on hands; strong arm; good athlete; 6-5, 200 pounds; bad-ball hitter; hard to strikeout; 6-5, 200 pounds

2.77 OF Dylan Cozens (Chapparal HS, AZ)

13. 1B Dylan Cozens (Chaparral HS, Arizona): raw; big power upside; decent speed and good athleticism for big man; average arm; 6-6, 235 pounds; reminds me of Wallace Gonzalez from last year’s draft

13.428 OF Steven Golden (San Lorenzo HS, CA)

40. OF Steven Golden (St. Francis HS, California): good arm; very good speed; good instincts in OF combined with his speed give him plus range; line drive swing with very few moving parts – I like his hit tool more than most, though power upside is questionable; 6-3, 180 pounds; R/R

Pitchers

1s.40 RHP Shane Watson (Lakewood HS, CA)

35. RHP Shane Watson (Lakewood HS, California): 88-91 FB with sink, 92-93 peak; good 74-78 CB; definitely seen a good 76-80 SL; has shown 95-96 peak in spring 2012, sitting 91-93 FB; plus 78-80 CB; very consistent CB; everything down in zone; no real CU to speak of; 6-4, 200 pounds; spring 2012 UPDATE: 89-92 FB, 94 peak; above-average 75-76 CB; raw 78-81 CU; also rumors of 82 very good CB

1s.54 RHP Mitch Gueller (West HS, WA)

44. RHP Mitchell Gueller (WF West HS, Washington): 91-92 peak, up to 96 by early May; above-average speed; great athlete; CF range; low- to mid-70s CB that could be SL in time, either way has plus upside; low-80s CU; would rather hit, but most clubs prefer him on mound; 6-3, 205 pounds

7.248 LHP Hoby Milner (Texas)

62. Texas JR LHP Hoby Milner: 86-91 FB with great movement, 92-93 peak; used in a variety of ways as amateur: more often 86-89 FB as starter, low-90s as reliever; very good FB command, but not nearly as strong in this area with his offspeed stuff; once showed a potential plus mid-80s SL (freshman year?), but doesn’t use it now; instead relies heavily on mid-70s CB that has gotten a lot better since he first rolled it out as a sophomore; emerging 81-82 CU that is now solid; half-empty view might worry about his college workload/being jerked around between roles, but I think the value of his rubber arm; as thin a college pitcher as I can remember at 6-3, 165 pounds; some players give off the impression that they will be better pros than they showed in college – you watch Milner throw and you want him to be better than he is

10.338 RHP Kevin Brady (Clemson)

142. Clemson JR RHP Kevin Brady: for too long threw a too straight 90-92 FB that touched 94-96, but much improved late life in 2012; good FB command; above-average, but inconsistent 80-83 SL; once flashed plus CB, but ditched pitch for a long stretch before going back to it early in 2012; nondescript CU has gotten better, but is average at best pitch; debate over whether or not he fits best as starter or reliever professionally – health concerns and a lack of a developed third pitch seem to point towards the bullpen, though perhaps the switch comes later rather than sooner; 6-3, 220 pounds

15.488 RHP Zach Cooper (Central Michigan)

236. Central Michigan SR RHP Zach Cooper: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; has hit as high as 94-95 in past; good 82-87 SL; average CU; 5-10, 190 pounds

22.698 RHP Jeb Stefan (Louisiana Tech)

258. Louisiana Tech rJR RHP Jeb Stefan: 90-92 FB, 94 peak; also uses SL and CU, though neither profiles as big league out pitch at this point; iffy control; 6-4, 225 pounds

Chicago White Sox 2012 MLB Draft Review

6 Sep 2012 12:00 AM / 2 Comments on Chicago White Sox 2012 MLB Draft Review

Courtney Hawkins was a slam dunk for Chicago in the first round. If that sentence brought back fond memories of the last great high flying dunk artist to play in the Windy City – Rusty LaRue, obviously – you’re alright in my book. Hawkins’ athleticism is outstanding and his physique ranks at or near the top of the entire 2012 MLB Draft class. His arm, speed, and raw power are all well above-average tools. Most impressive of all: the big Texan just kept getting better and better as the spring went on. I think he’s likely to outgrow center, but Adam Jones in right field still sounds pretty darn good to me. A lot can happen in the next few years to make this sound really dumb, but I still can’t believe the Mets passed on him for Gavin Cecchini. You don’t draft for need, but Hawkins is exactly what the Mets need. Heck, as a power hitting plus defending corner outfielder Hawkins is exactly what every time needs. The White Sox got themselves a long-term above-average regular here.

After Hawkins, the biggest bat drafted by Chicago belongs to Keon Barnum. I’m actually not sure if that is literally true — I’m not privy to bat weights — but it works when talking prospect stature. Barnum is old for his class, and, to be frank, he hit like it in his pro debut. We’ll know more about his future next year when he’s tested with a full-season assignment. For now, the power is encouraging, as is his impressive athleticism and physicality. I think the reticence many teams show towards drafting and developing first base only prospects, though perfectly understandable in theory, may have shifted bat-only prospects from overrated to undervalued. Barnum isn’t a great example of this, at least from my vantage point – I had him ranked 203^rd overall when Chicago drafted him 48^th – but I think the overarching idea has some merit.

The White Sox backed up their selection of a high school first baseman with a college guy. Former Sun Devil Abe Ruiz will have to hit and hit and hit to keep advancing through the system. I think he’s a nice org guy, and there’s no shame in that. Interestingly enough (to me), the White Sox opted not to back up Hawkins with any legitimate college outfield prospects. I realize you can only draft so many guys in forty rounds, but it still seemed like a curious position to totally disregard.

17^th round pick Sam Ayala is young, so he has that going for him. Beyond that, he’s an excellent athlete – for any player, not just for a catcher – with the long-term upside of a starting catcher. The gap between what any young catcher is and what they may eventually be is as big as any position player prospect out there, so, as always, take the guess at his ceiling with a great big block of salt. Zac Fisher has teased scouts for years, but has yet to have the breakout performance so many believe is hiding within him. It’ll be interesting to hear about how his defense progresses professionally; he has the tools to be an asset behind the plate, but, stop me if you’ve heard this before, hasn’t put it all together yet. I still like his approach at the plate, though it remains to be seen if his raw power will ever move into the present power classification. The White Sox actually drafted Sunnyside HS (CA) C Jose Barraza before either Ayala or Fisher. I think he’s more of a non-prospect catching tweener in that he’ll never defend well enough to play behind the plate every day while falling well short of any of the hitting benchmarks necessary for a first baseman. On the whole the White Sox added some decent talent up the middle of their infield, but came up light in their pursuit of impact talent.

To further that point, look no further (-2 points, repetitive) than the players Chicago targeted to play second base. Just targeting second basemen alone tells you something about their draft strategy. What it tells you, well, that I don’t know…but it tells you something. I do like Joey DeMichele. I wish I could really like Joey DeMichele, but it is hard to really like any bat-first second base prospect who lacks the traditional speed, athleticism, and range of a big league middle infielder. If everything goes as planned, I could see a poor man’s Jeff Keppinger here, right down to the ability to hammer righthanded pitching. If he keeps hitting, he’ll keep getting chances. Micah Johnson is a similar, yet lesser version of DeMichele. Both players are limited by their lack of defensive versatility. Though I think Nick Basto is also likely to wind up at second base, he can at least make the claim to have the athleticism and arm strength to at least entertain the idea of moving around the diamond. I had 24^th round pick Tampa 2B Eric Grabe on in-house rankings at various points over the past few years (“good approach, versatile glove” from my notes), but didn’t think enough of him to ever officially rank him as a viable draft prospect. He was too old for Rookie ball, but hit more than enough to get another shot in the organization next year. Division II prospects who last to the 24^th round can’t ask for much more than that.

Chicago snagged only one third baseman of note: Kentucky senior Thomas McCarthy. McCarthy pulled off the impressive feat of getting himself ranked by me (80^th best third base prospect!), but still managed to be one of the few players I listed without a comment. Like Grabe, it is likely he has already hit enough in 2012 to get another shot next season somewhere in the White Sox organization. Neither McCarthy nor Grabe are prospects in any conventional sense of the word, but their performances, both collegiately and as young professionals, warranted mentioning. I also had to mention them just in case anybody out there plays in a full-minors, 50 team dynasty league with 1,000 man rosters. There’s one in every crowd, after all.

The White Sox did a nice job of accumulating some interesting college arms who slipped further in the draft than anticipated. Landing Chris Beck, a preseason first round favorite of many, with the 76^th overall pick exemplifies the idea. I’ve heard some of the anti-cutter crowd explain his decrease in 2012 velocity on an overreliance on the pitch. More empirical data and/or an organization other than Baltimore speaking out against the pitch is needed before I’m willing to go down that road. The return of some velocity and a truer slider would make him a big league starting pitching option once again. I’m optimistic.

Kyle Hansen and Brandon Brennan were both somewhat under-the-radar players who were selected in sensible spots by Chicago. I graded Hansen out as an early third round pick (103^rd overall) and he went in the sixth round. I also said that he was likely to go three rounds after his talent warranted. Some simple math shows that I am indeed an all-knowing sorcerer. I still prefer Beck to Hansen in a vacuum, but the gap isn’t as wide as some might think. He has the depth of stuff (four-seam, two-seam, slider, change), size, and athleticism to continue starting professionally. Brennen’s stuff is a tick below Hansen’s, but still good enough to keep starting until he proves he can’t. A part of me thinks Brennen could have been a top-two round prospect if he would have stayed and developed over three years at Oregon, so, needless to say, that same part of me thinks he was a solid idea in the fourth round.

Isler is an interesting gamble that should continue to see his stuff play way up when coming out of the bullpen. I don’t know where Chicago gets their young relief pitching from, but Isler seems like as good an “out of nowhere” (apologies to Cincinnati, both a fine city and university and far from “nowhere”) as anybody else. He’s already got the nasty hard sinker/slider thing going for him. Tony Bucciferro’s report reads much the same way. He’ll throw bowling balls and dare hitters to try to elevate them. Both guys showed off strong groundball tendencies, albeit in small (Isler) and super small (Bucciferro) samples. I was surprised to see Eric Jaffe go off the board when he did. I was even more surprised when the White Sox managed to get a contract signed. He reminds me a little bit of current Sox minor leaguer Jacob Petricka. Jaffe also throws a fastball that is particularly hard for hitters to make consistent square contact on, if can believe it. He uses a curve (an excellent one, by the by) over a slider, but it is a pitch that moves sharply enough that it often gets the same desired results. If even one of the White Sox’ trio of college arms becomes a contributor to a big league bullpen someday, then you’d have to call their round 8 to 14 strategy a happy one.

Chicago went to the college reliever well twice more when they nabbed Adam Lopez and Zach Toney. Lopez has a pro body and is a hard thrower. He’s also a Tommy John surgery survivor who has had a fairly typical return from injury. In other words, his velocity is coming back nicely while his command still has a ways to go. It is still easy to appreciate the pick: getting guys who have hit the mid-90s in round 21 is almost always worth a shot, injury history be damned. Unbelievably, Toney is the only lefthanded pitching White Sox prospect of note to come out of the 2012 MLB Draft. Despite being a lefty, Toney’s prospect profile fits in just fine with the trio of righthanders featured in the paragraph centimeters above. For those with a short memory (or, more likely, those who skim) that would be “difficult to hit fastball, good breaking ball, potential big league reliever, fine pick at this point in draft.”

Last but not least, we have a late round steal from the Division II ranks. Enter Storm Throne. There’s no arguing with Throne’s size, athleticism, and potential for a plus heater. There is some quibbling with Throne’s inconsistent offspeed stuff (though I like his curve a lot more than many peers) and unreliable fastball velocity. On balance, Throne’s strengths outweigh his weaknesses. If it all comes together, he’s a rock solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher capable of getting ground ball outs. Throne is easily the best signed pick of round 25, though I doubt he’ll go off and put that on his business cards. My pre-draft overall pitching rankings went Beck/Hansen/Brennen/Throne, so, 25^th round pick or not, he is a prospect worth keeping an eye on. In fact, after the three aforementioned pitchers, only Hawkins, Barnum, and DeMichele ranked higher on my pre-draft list than Throne. Whether or not you should be happy your 25^th round pick doubles as your 7^th best draft prospect depends on your general outlook on life. Half-fullers can appreciate the value of a late round find while half-emptyers have to wonder what was going on with all those rounds in between Hawkins and Throne.

Of Beck, Brennen, Hansen, Isler, Jaffe, Bucciferro, Lopez, Throne, and Toney, it is definitely worth pointing out that Buccifero is the shrimpiest. The “slender” righthander from Michigan State comes in at a mere 6-3, 200 pounds. I’m less into draft day patterns as I am scouting director preferences, but even a non-sorcerer can deduce that the White Sox have a certain body type in mind when drafting arms. Also of note: “shrimpiest” is not a word, yet “crimpiest” is. If you knew that already, you’re smarter than a sorcerer.

Position-by-Position Breakdown of Prospects of Note

(Players are listed by draft order…included below each name, in italics, are each player’s pre-draft notes and ranking within position group)

17.531 La Jolla Country Day School C Sammy Ayala

22. C Sam Ayala (La Jolla County Day School, California): good speed for catcher; good arm; above-average power upside; good athlete; 6-2, 200 pounds

27.831 New Mexico State C Zac Fisher

83. New Mexico State JR C Zac Fisher: bigger scout (and personal) favorite than the numbers might suggest; above-average raw power; advanced bat with a good approach; bat is currently way ahead of glove – still learning the finer points of what it takes to be a catcher, so, if drafted, time will have to be spent bringing his defense up to a more acceptable level; 6-3, 210 pounds

1s.48 King HS (FL) 1B Keon Barnum

5. 1B Keon Barnum (King HS, Florida): plus arm; plus power upside; Ryan Howard comp; solid defender; super strong; surprisingly athletic; compact swing; Jon Singleton comp; 6-4, 225 pounds; L/L

16.501 Arizona State 1B Abe Ruiz

38. Arizona State SR 1B Abe Ruiz: good present power – can really hammer average fastballs, but has big trouble with anything else; average defender; has hit for nice power in three out of four college seasons, but questionable hit tool and substandard approach leave much to be desired; 6-3, 240 pounds

3.108 Arizona State 2B Joey DeMichele

9. Arizona State JR 2B Joey DeMichele: decent speed; for the longest time he was a man without a position, but settled in as the kind of second baseman who makes plays on balls hit him and not much more; his plus hit tool is one of the best in his class; above-average power with the chance to hit 15+ homers professionally; 5-11, 185 pounds

9.291 Indiana 2B Micah Johnson

48. Indiana JR 2B Micah Johnson: good athlete; more raw power than most middle infielders in this class, but currently most of his power plays to the gaps; good speed; average at best defender, but has the chance to get better in time – it is more about concentration and technique than physical tools; limited arm before arm injury, so teams will need to be sure he can stick at 2B before using a pick on him; 5-11, 190 pounds

5.171 Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL) SS Nick Basto

25. 2B Nick Basto (Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida): strong arm, but best utilized at second; some think he sticks at SS

1.13 Carroll HS (TX) OF Courtney Hawkins

4. OF Courtney Hawkins (Mary Carroll HS, Texas): very muscular build; good speed; strong arm; more present power than majority of class; plus raw power; lots of swing and miss and some pitch recognition issues; average or better speed; RF professionally; has improved a great deal across the board in last calendar year, especially on defense; good instincts in CF, but might not be quick enough; plus arm; speed, power, and arm will take him far; reminds me so much of Adam Jones it’s scary; 6-2, 215 pounds; R/R

Pitching

2.76 Georgia Southern RHP Chris Beck

21. Georgia Southern JR RHP Chris Beck: 87-93 FB, 95-97 peak; FB velocity was way down in 2012 (88-92, 93 peak) and far too straight a pitch to fool pro bats; 80-86 cutter-like SL with plus upside, has hit upwards of 90, but was above-average at best throughout much of 2012 season; 80-84 straight CU with plus upside; command needs tightening; Dr. Jekyll is a first round pick, but Mr. Hyde barely warrants top ten round consideration – a smart team will figure out what they are getting in advance (or at least that’s the idea…), but outsiders like me can only guess; 6-3, 220 pounds

4.141 Orange Coast CC RHP Brandon Brennan

74. Orange Coast CC (CA) rFR RHP Brandon Brennan: 88-93 FB, 95 peak; average 83-84 SL; average CU with more upside than that for me; transfer from Oregon; 6-4, 225 pounds

6.201 St. John’s RHP Kyle Hansen

52. St. John’s JR RHP Kyle Hansen: 91-93 FB with good life, 94-96 peak; average 79-84 SL that is improving, pitch has plus upside but inconsistent shape: up to 88 on most recent looks and tends to work much better as truer slider at higher velocities than it does as an upper-70s SL/CB hybrid breaking ball; raw 80-82 CU when he started school that is now a really solid third pitch; has learned to use more upper-80s sinkers to complement four-seam heat; I’ve learned to be skeptical of overly large pitching prospects, but Hansen, for whatever reason, hasn’t gotten anywhere close to the kind of hype typically associated with similar pitchers in the past – he’s big, yes, but he is an excellent athlete who repeats his mechanics well and sits at consistent above-average velocities all while staying healthy while at college and putting up outstanding numbers year after year; hard to call a 6-8, 215 pound brother of a big leaguer a sleeper, but Hansen will likely be on the board a full three rounds past where I’d begin recommending him

8.261 Cincinnati RHP Zach Isler

191. Cincinnati JR RHP Zach Isler: fairly generic high-80s FB as starter, but a revelation out of the bullpen: sinking 90-92 FB, 94-95 peak; good low-80s SL; raw CU he can likely ditch as he moves to bullpen professionally; 6-4, 240 pounds

11.351 California RHP Eric Jaffe

184. UCLA rFR RHP Eric Jaffe: 90-95 FB that moves; plus 77-82 CB; has shown interesting 84-86 CU this past spring; disaster of a season leaves him a 100% speculative selection at this point – his signability isn’t supposed to be an issue, but it would be a surprise to see him drafted high enough to make it worth his while unless he really, really wants to play pro ball; 6-4, 230 pounds

14.441 Michigan State RHP Tony Bucciferro

243. Michigan State SR RHP Tony Bucciferro: heavy 86-88 FB, 90-92 peak; has no problem throwing sinkers all day; very good hard SL; developing 80-81 CU that has emerged as solid third pitch with above-average sink; plus control; plus pitchability; better than your average mid-round senior sign with stuff that could play up even more in short bursts; 6-3, 200 pounds

21.651 Virginia Military Institute RHP Adam Lopez

345. VMI SR RHP Adam Lopez: 88-92 FB, 94-96 peak; recovering from TJ surgery; 6-5, 220 pounds

25.771 Morningside HS (IA) RHP Storm Throne

145. Morningside (IA) JR RHP Storm Throne: 90-93 FB, 95-97 peak; good command of above-average 72-74 CB; shows CU; keeps the ball down; good athlete; 6-7, 240 pounds

26.801 Austin Peay State LHP Zach Toney

281. Austin Peay State SR LHP Zach Toney: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; solid CB; interesting splitter; iffy control; 6-3, 220 pounds

Photo via http://s305.photobucket.com/albums/nn205/chibully/all-time%20bulls/?action=view&current=RustyLaRue.jpg&sort=ascending.

Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board – Hitters Explained

31 Aug 2012 2:01 PM / Leave a comment

We’ll talk more about Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier in a separate post, but a few words on every other position player listed on the top 100 from last week can be found below. Here we go…

I currently have Kris Bryant listed as an OF/3B, a fairly significant change from the 3B/1B designation he entered school with. I’m totally buying in on Bryant’s athleticism playing in an outfield corner, at least for the first few years of his professional career. His body looks much better now than it ever did in high school — he managed to pull off the stronger yet leaner look that I’ve spent my whole adult life trying to figure out — and his arm is plenty strong enough to play in right field. There remains an above-average chance he sticks as a playable third baseman for the foreseeable future. His bat works anywhere, so determining his long-term defensive home is more of a matter of how great his future can possibly be than whether or not he will make it in pro ball. All of the standard developmental caveats apply, but the range of outcomes for Bryant look like this: upside of star-caliber player at third to steady, contributing bat at first, with something in-between those two if he winds up in right.

Colin Moran serves as an interesting counter-point to Bryant’s offensive profile. Bryant does it with power while Moran does it with patience. Both are good enough prospects that there is plenty of overlap — Bryant’s approach has made ridiculous progress in the last calendar year while Moran’s future power is, at worst, average – but the contrast is still something fun to talk about nine months before the draft hits. Moran is such a gifted natural hitter with a disciplined, mature approach to his craft. I feel like this comp makes too much sense not to throw out there before everybody catches on: Colin Moran is the 2013 draft’s Chase Headley.

Austin Wilson and Aaron Judge are like the college version of Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier. Both Wilson and Judge are way ahead of any 2012 college outfielder. The most direct comparison would be Victor Roache and Mitch Haniger, the two best power outfield bats in last year’s class. Milwaukee did well in nabbing both Roache and Haniger this year, but the Brewers may not get the chance to get either in this year’s draft with their current early-teens selection. That’s just a long way of saying the following: if all goes well for both Wilson and Judge in 2013, they’ll both be top ten picks next June.

If any prep player can knock off Meadows/Frazier from the top spot, it could be Oscar Mercado. Mercado is an extremely well-rounded young player with no clearly below-average future tool. The popular Elvis Andrus comp makes a lot of sense. Also, for what it’s worth, I think Mercado is further ahead than Francisco Lindor was at the same stage of development.

Continuing with the up the middle theme is catcher Reese McGuire. I’ve said before how fascinated I am by the different catching archetypes out there: you’ve got your big arm/big power catchers, your great athlete/raw glove/converted infielder catchers, your defense-first/questionable hit tool catchers, and then your solid all-around with no standout tool catchers. McGuire falls under the plus athlete with superstar upside umbrella. Jeremy Martinez is the defense-first/questionable hit tool poster boy for 2013, Zach Collins, Nick Ciuffo, and Corey Simpson are all hitters first and arguably catchers in name only, and Chris Okey and Jonathan Denney lead the solid all-around pack. The group is so closely bunched that you could put their names in a hat and pick a new order without being wrong. Hey, for all you know that’s exactly what I did to come up with my order, right?

It is hard to figure out which players I like more or less than consensus, so forgive me if I’m off the mark in believing I’m higher on the college quintet of Mark Payton, Hunter Dozier, Chad Pinder, Adam Frazier, and Jeff Roy than others. The order each player fell on the list is less important than the fact that each guy actually wound up on a list like this. Payton’s speed is a weapon that helps him on the base paths and in center field. He’s undersized, but with more than enough pop to keep pitchers honest as he advances in pro ball. Roy is a similar prospect (i.e. lots of speed and top of the line CF range) to Payton, but trades in a little bit more power for a little less pure hit tool and strike zone discipline. Frazier, yet another up the middle prospect, reminds me some of last year’s underrated all season (at least until draft day) Nolan Fontana. Frazier won’t wow you with the glove — some have him moving to 2B due mostly to an iffy arm, but I think he’s just steady enough to stick at SS for now — but he’s an on-base machine with a relatively high floor. Besides the potential switch off of shortstop, I do worry some about a lack of natural strength/in-game power.

Dozier and Pinder are both third basemen from programs that aren’t typically associated with big-time college baseball. Dozier is relatively new to the position, but showed enough last year to have me believe he has a long-term future at the position. He’s a good runner for a big man (6-4, 220 pounds), so, like Kris Bryant, he has a future in RF before the scary possibility of moving to 1B has to be mentioned. In either 3B or RF, his bat could be an asset. Pinder is more of an upside play – his raw tools are intriguing, especially on defense, but his plate discipline needs an overhaul if he wants to keep mashing as a pro. I can sometimes get stuck on comps, so take this for what it’s worth…but I’ll always remember the popular comp of Pinder to Ryan Zimmerman dating back to Pinder’s summer before matriculating at Virginia Tech.

Michael O’Neill is another projection pick based largely on the strength of his outstanding speed, right field arm, and athleticism. I’m not sure how he’ll eventually stack up against some of the many prep outfielders, but, for now, I like him as a potential starter with the right coaching adjustments at the next level. DJ Peterson could see a CJ Cron kind of rise in his junior season. I’m notoriously difficult on prospect destined for first base, so it’s hard to get too excited about Peterson as a prospect. Another big year with the bat could change that — his kind of hand speed as a hitter is hard to find — as could any improvement at third base.

Joey Martarano is all about athleticism and raw power. There’s a great deal of projection left in Connor Heady’s bat, but his defense at short and speed are both loud tools. You can flip a coin between two high school speedsters that I like a lot, Matthew McPhearson and Josh Hart. Both guys are crazy fast, but, more importantly, both guys know how to use their speed. Riley Unroe reminds me of a high school version of 2012 first round pick Deven Marrero. I don’t think Unroe climbs to quite those heights, but any prospect who you know will stick at shortstop and give you at least a little something with the bat is worth some attention.

Austin Meadows vs Clint Frazier

27 Aug 2012 12:48 AM / Leave a comment

Austin Meadows vs Clint Frazier is shaping up to be one of the best head-to-head position player prospect battles in recent draft memory. That was my thesis. I was going to leave it at that and just ramble on about the relevant 2013 prospects that people come to this site to read about, but, as is my wont, I got distracted and lost track of my goal. Although, in this rare case, my distraction actually led me back to an attempt to validate the original thesis. Before we go on, I should point out that there’s a chance that Ryan Boldt, Trey Ball, and Justin Williams could join the conversation as top prep outfielder before long. For the sake of this discussion, however, we’ll restrict our look back to the best head-to-head position player prospect battles over the past few years.

SS Carlos Correa, OF Byron Buxton, and C Mike Zunino were all consensus top prospects at their respective positions this past June, though there were some who had Albert Almora and even David Dahl on the same level as Buxton in the outfield. Close, but not quite at the level I think the Meadows vs Frazier debate will reach this spring.

2011 was so packed with pitching that few wasted the key strokes needed to debate top hitting talent. Like 2012, there was a clear gap between the class’ top infielder (Anthony Rendon) and top outfielder (Bubba Starling) and everybody else. Francisco Lindor vs Javier Baez at shortstop might wind up being a fascinating head-to-head shortstop battle to watch, if recent happy reports on Baez’ ability to stick up the middle are to be believed. I can’t count that, however, due to the consensus belief that Baez was destined for third base at the time of the draft.

2010 featured a bizarre group of position players taken earlier than I had personally expected — Manny Machado, Christian Colon, Delino DeShields, Michael Choice, Yasmani Grandal, Jake Skole, Kellin Deglan, Christian Yelich, Zack Cox, Kyle Parker, Chevy Clarke, and Cito Culver were all drafted at least ten spots earlier than where they placed on my pre-draft big board. The only exceptions to that rule were Bryce Harper (ranked 1/drafted 1), Josh Sale (14/17), Kolbrin Vitek (24/20), and Justin O’Conner (12/31). The two hitters I had after Harper on that pre-draft list were Austin Wilson and Nick Castellanos. Weird year, yet still no interesting head-to-head position battles.

The 2009 first round was Stephen Strasburg and the Stras-ettes. Beyond Strasburg, Dustin Ackley was the clear favorite for best pure bat and Donavan Tate got plenty of love for his raw upside, but the hitting talent that year wasn’t what anybody would call exciting on the whole. There was this Mike Trout character who apparently every team picking after the Angels had second ion their board, but that’s revisionism at its very best.

When people talk best draft’s of all-time, I think 2008 deserves to be at or near the top of the list. By my best guess, I think it is fair to say that 27 of the 30 first rounders that year will play big league baseball. Just making the big leagues might not seem like a successful career on the micro-level, but when you consider the overall success rate of first round players in the macro then you see how special it is to have 90% of a first round class play at the highest levels. 2008 really was a great first round.

Quick diversion starting…now! The previous (pre-diversion warning) statement is made all the more amazing when you consider that 2008 was then known as the year of the first baseman. Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Ike Davis, and Allan Dykstra were all college bats projected to play first base at a high level in the pros. Eric Hosmer, the third overall pick and a guy selected before all of the college players, was seen as one of the safest prep hitting prospects in years. It is obviously too early to make any final declarations on the 2008 first base class, but, going by Baseball Reference’s WAR (like everybody I prefer Fangraphs, but it is easier to see stats for draft years all in one place at B-R), the seven first round first basemen have combined for a grand total WAR of 5.2. Davis alone accounts for 4.0 of that total. All that and I still think the 2008 class is impressive. All we need now is for Dykstra, Reese Havens, and Anthony Hewitt to crack the big leagues and we’ll have a perfect 30-for-30. Alright, diversion over.

All of that is a circuitous way of saying that 2008 might have been the most recent example of a hotly contested position battle atop the draft. First base was fairly wide open that year: Hosmer, Alonso, Smoak, and even Wallace each had fans backing one over the other as top 2008 first baseman. Meadows vs Frazier could finally give us a battle at the top of the draft worth watching. Meadows vs Frazier vs Boldt vs Ball vs Williams – now that would be something. Add in Austin Wilson and Aaron Judge to the mix? Now we’re just getting greedy…

Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board: Honorable Mentions

21 Aug 2012 11:11 PM / Leave a comment

No fancy introduction today. The list is here. The guys who didn’t make the cut are….

…here. Well, not here here. But right after this sentence…

UCLA JR RHP Zack Weiss flashes excellent stuff and has a deep enough arsenal to keep starting as a professional. Summer sensation UC Irvine JR RHP Andrew Thurman shares some similarities (FB/CB/CU/cut-SL all could be average big league pitches or better) and could be in line for a breakout junior season after his star turn on the Cape. Weiss’ teammate UCLA JR RHP Nick Vander Tuig doesn’t have the same velocity, but gets by relying on a bevvy of offspeed pitches with upside. I actually hadn’t realize it before just this minute, but there are some definite similarities between Vander Tuig and Thurman, the biggest exception being Thurman’s increased fastball velocity (up to 90-94 from 88-92) this summer. It is also easy to like Texas Tech JR RHP Trey Masek, a short righthander with a good fastball (90-94), above-average changeup, and a variety of other stuff (have seen bits and pieces of slider, curve, and cutter). Arizona JR RHP Konner Wade continues the recent Wildcat tradition of pitchers who know how to keep the ball down in the zone. Everything he throws is down, from his plus sinker to his hard sinking changeup to, of course, his upper-70s slider. St. Mary’s JR LHP Jordan Mills is a sleeper who excels at doing a lot of the things teams look for in college lefthanders: his upper-80s fastball dances, he has a potential plus change, he can mix in an ever-improving slider, and, you guessed it, he’s got a funky delivery that makes everything play up. That’s my kind of college lefty right there.

A fairly easy argument could be made that all those names pale in comparison to Stanford JR RHP AJ Vanegas. Of all of the names not on the list that I can see myself looking back wanting to kick myself for leaving off, Vanegas leads the way. I hate when analysts say “if this player does what I think he’ll do, then he’ll rank highly on my list” because I think it is part of the job of the analyst to figure out if the player will do what you think he’ll do. Don’t rank him outside the top 100 if you think he’ll wind up in the top ten with a good year. If you think he’ll have a good year, he should be ranked in the top ten! Alright, quick rant over. If Vanegas does what I think he’ll do, then he’ll rank highly on my list! Kidding! But the possibility that Vanegas is exactly that type of prospect exists. The Stanford righthander is an excellent prospect with a ton of upside, but the lack of both command (love the scout quote on him: “his fastball is the rare pitch that moves too much for its own good”) and control concern me going forward. The likelihood that he winds up in the bullpen long-term keeps him out of the top 100 for now, but his fastball/slider combination is so good when on that he could fly up lists like these in due time. I’m not sure if that makes me a hypocrite or not, but there it is.

It was hard to leave off big personal favorite Nova Southeastern JR 2B Carlos Asuaje. If there are five smarter hitters in all of amateur baseball than Asuaje, then I’ve yet to come across them. Asuaje is also a capable defender at both second and third, and might just be good enough to hang at short in a pinch. I see no reason why Asuaje can’t join current big leaguers from Nova Southeastern Mike Fiers, JD Martinez, and Miles Mikolas in the majors someday soon. Asuaje may be my favorite college bat outside of the top 100, but he’s not the only player worth chatting about. LSU JR C Tyler Ross was a big time recruit who has handled the bat well, but has yet to show the big raw power that was his calling card in high school. I had Ross as the Phillies fifth best prospect selected in 2010; Philadelphia was obviously unable to sign him, putting him in good company along with other potential 2013 early round picks like Scott Frazier and Daniel Palka. California SO C Andrew Knapp offers the same kind of upside with the bat, though there are many who question his defense going forward. I’m not one of them, but it bears noting. Vanderbilt JR OF/1B Conrad Gregor is one of 2013’s best bats: above-average or better raw power, a great approach, and two really, really strong years of production in the SEC. What knocked him down the list is the other side of the game – he may be an outstanding defensive first baseman, but he’s still just another guy limited to first base for many. His prognosis gets a little rosier if you like him in an outfield corner (like I do), but the bar for hitters is just so darn high at his three primary positions. Virginia Tech rJR OF Tyler Horan faces the same question going forward: will he hit enough to play everyday in an outfield corner? His run on the Cape seems to suggest he’s got a heck of a chance to do just that. Mississippi State JR OF/RHP Hunter Renfroe rounds out the group of interesting college sluggers. Renfroe’s plus-plus arm is easily his best tool; in fact, his arm ranks up near the top of any singular tool for any amateur player in the entire country. A little bit of improved pitch recognition would go a long way towards enabling him to more consistently tap into his above-average raw power. Failing that, he could be tried as a defense-first backstop or fireballing short reliever.

It is way too early to make any bold proclamations about the state of 2013’s prep arms, but, if forced to give an opinion, I’d say I’m currently less than impressed on the whole. That doesn’t mean some intriguing names weren’t left off the early big board, of course. RHP Jordan Sheffield (Tullahoma HS, Tennessee), RHP Devin Williams (Hazelwood East HS, Missouri), RHP Shaun Anderson (American Heritage HS, Florida), and RHP Ed Voyles (Holy Innocents Episcopal HS, Georgia) are all varying degrees of interesting at this point. Sheffield has the best fastball velocity, Williams the best fastball movement, Anderson the strongest overall present big league profile (four distinct pitches, good command, and a mature 6-5, 220 pound frame), and Voyles the most long-term projection. RHP Brett Hanewich (IMG Academy, Florida) also deserves mention as a guy who has made great strides — he’s picked up a good bit of velocity and now sits low-90s with ease — over the past calendar year. RHP Trevor Clifton (Heritage HS, Tennessee) could be a really good one if/when he figures out a way to tone down his delivery and improve his command. The stuff and body are certainly there already.

My three favorite high school arms that didn’t make the cut are RHP Taylor Blatch (Jensen Beach HS, Florida), RHP Casey Shane (Burleson Centennial HS, Texas), and LHP Jonah Wesely (Tracy HS, California). Blatch has impressed me with his multitude of above-average offspeed pitches: the mid-70s slider is my favorite, followed closely by an intriguing low- to mid-80s change. I’ve heard yet haven’t seen positive things about his curve, as well. Shane has the big Texas sinker/slider thing down pat. His is some of the easiest velocity that I’ve had the pleasure of witnessing in this year’s class. Wesely’s strong commitment to UCLA will have to be monitored, but, if deemed signable this spring, he’ll be a favorite of the area guys for sure. He may not have the classic projection that scouts crave, but there are times he’ll go through a lineup with such ease — his pitchability stands out — that he looks like a professional already.

Trey Williams was the only junior college player on the initial big board, but a case could be made for Scottsdale (AZ) CC SO LHP Stephen Tarpley, formerly of USC. His freshman numbers pitching in the Pac-12 (2012: 8.04 K/9 | 3.22 BB/9 | 3.45 FIP | 78.1 IP) and good present stuff (upper-80s fastball that hits as high as 93, really strong mid- to upper-70s curve, and emerging change) should help him improve on his 2011 draft standing (7th round). There’s some serious ground to cover to get inside the first 100 picks, but lefties who can pitch seem to do alright most years.

Finally, we’ve come to the group of high school bats that didn’t quite crack the list. I could name a few dozen guys who just missed the list, but we’ll stick to the quick position-by-position run around the diamond for the sake of brevity. C Brian Navarreto (Arlington County Day HS, Florida), fresh off his stellar showing at Wrigley Field, is 1B to AJ Vanegas’ 1A on the list of players most likely to make me look dumb in time. The bar for defense in the world of prep catching has been set in recent years by Austin Hedges. Scouts in Chicago weren’t quite there while watching Navaretto, but his name was at least brought up…in hushed tones, of course. 1B Pete Alonso (Plant HS, Florida) is an excellent defender who can hit the ball to all fields with power. 2B/SS Dalton Dulin (Memphis University HS, Tennessee) is a spark plug with a good hit tool and enough speed and defense to keep getting work. I can’t say I’ve given this comp too much thought, but I saw a little Scooter Gennett, an old favorite, in his game. We’ll go with an all Empire State left side of the infield: SS Stephen Alemais (All Hallows HS, New York) has big league-ready defense and 3B Dylan Manwaring (Horseheads HS, New York) has shown big talent both in the field, in the batter’s box, and on the mound.

I’ll cheat in the outfield and name four guys that have really piqued my interest thus far. I like OF Stephen Wrenn (Walton HS, Georgia) for his speed, glove, arm, and live bat, OF/3B Kevin Franklin (Gahr HS, California) for his incredible strength, OF Corey Ray (Simeon Career Academy, Illinois) for his ability to handle high velocity and impressive plate coverage, and OF William Abreu (Mater Academy HS, Florida), an above-average player without any obvious weaknesses. RHP/SS Sheldon Neuse (Fossil Ridge HS, Texas) is a wild card as a two-way prospect with legitimate upside as both a pitcher (93 peak, two strong offspeed pitches) and hitter (love his defensive tools above all else).

Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board

20 Aug 2012 12:45 AM / 7 Comments on Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board

Apologies for the unplanned disappearance over the past few weeks, but the allure of hitting the road to go watch some baseball and spend time at the beach was too strong to ignore. Counting on a reliable internet connection while traveling was probably a mistake, but I trust nobody missed me too terribly. On the plus side, being off the grid gave me plenty of time to mess around with the list you see below. I suppose seeing a good chunk of the high school prospects up close and personal would also qualify as a plus. Maybe I should unplug the ole computer more often…

The plan for the week is to get more in-depth with the list below — lists are great, but commentary is better — while also talking about some of the guys who just missed the cut as well as going back to last year’s original big board to see the hits and misses of yesteryear. In the meantime, rip away! I’ll leave with the disclaimer from last year’s summer big board:

Lastly, this list is just one man’s opinion. Based on firsthand observations, statistical research, crosschecking with old allies in the business, and reading publicly available scouting reports, I’d like to think it is a pretty well-informed opinion. Like all of my rankings, the emphasis is on where I’d draft each player and not where I necessarily think each player will be drafted. Here we go…

OF Austin Meadows (Grayson HS, Georgia)
Arkansas JR RHP Ryne Stanek
San Diego JR OF/3B Kris Bryant
OF Clint Frazier (Loganville HS, Georgia)
SS Oscar Mercado (Gaither HS, Florida)
Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel
Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson
Florida JR RHP Karsten Whitson
Fresno State JR OF Aaron Judge
OF Ryan Boldt (Red Wing HS, Minnesota)
C Reese McGuire (Kentwood HS, Washington)
OF/LHP Trey Ball (New Castle HS, Indiana)
North Carolina JR 3B Colin Moran
Indiana State JR LHP Sean Manaea
Florida JR RHP Jonathan Crawford
Mississippi JR RHP Bobby Wahl
RHP Kohl Stewart (St. Pius HS, Texas)
LHP Robert Kaminsky (St. Joseph Regional HS, New Jersey)
LHP Stephen Gonsalves (Cathedral Catholic HS, California)
OF Justin Williams (Terrebonne HS, Louisiana)
LHP Ian Clarkin (James Madison HS, California)
RHP Clinton Hollon (Woodford County HS, Kentucky)
Gonzaga JR LHP Marco Gonzales
Texas JR RHP Corey Knebel
Vanderbilt JR LHP Kevin Ziomek
LSU JR RHP Ryan Eades
3B Ryan McMahon (Mater Dei HS, California)
SS/3B Andy McGuire (James Madison HS, Virginia)
RHP Brett Morales (King HS, Florida)
LSU JR SS/OF JaCoby Jones
C Jeremy Martinez (Mater Dei HS, California)
Kansas State JR OF Jared King
RHP Dustin Driver (Wenatchee HS, Washington)
College of the Canyons FR 3B Trey Williams
LHP AJ Puk (Washington HS, Iowa)
Texas JR OF Mark Payton
Samford JR OF Phillip Ervin
San Diego JR RHP Dylan Covey
Rice JR RHP Austin Kubitza
3B Joseph Martarano (Fruitland HS, Idaho)
Arkansas JR RHP Barrett Astin
Oklahoma JR RHP Jonathan Gray
Stephen F. Austin State JR 3B Hunter Dozier
Arizona State JR RHP Trevor Williams
1B/C Zach Collins (American Heritage HS, Florida)
Minnesota JR LHP Tom Windle
C Chris Okey (Eustis HS, Florida)
C Jonathan Denney (Yukon HS, Oklahoma)
C Nick Ciuffo (Lexington HS, South Carolina)
Mississippi State JR SS Adam Frazier
RHP Cory Thompson (Mauldin HS, South Carolina)
RHP Dominic Taccolini (Kempner HS, Texas)
RHP Robert Tyler (Crisp County HS, Georgia)
RHP Kevin Davis (Miller HS, Alabama)
Central Florida JR RHP Ben Lively
RHP Keegan Thompson (Cullman HS, Alabama)
RHP Chris Oakley (St. Augustine Prep HS, New Jersey)
Rice JR RHP John Simms
3B Cavan Biggio (St. Thomas HS, Texas)
Marshall JR RHP Aaron Blair
RHP Hunter Harvey (Bandys HS, North Carolina)
TCU JR RHP Andrew Mitchell
Virginia Tech JR 3B Chad Pinder
Michigan JR OF Michael O’Neill
New Mexico JR 1B/3B DJ Peterson
Ohio State JR RHP/1B Josh Dezse
Pepperdine JR RHP Scott Frazier
Kent State rSO RHP Tyler Skulina
LHP Garrett Williams (Calvary Baptist HS, Louisiana)
RHP Andrew Church (Palo Verde HS, Nevada)
Texas State JR RHP Kyle Finnegan
RHP Casey Meisner (Cypress Woods HS, Texas)
Georgia Tech JR 1B/OF Daniel Palka
1B/OF Nick Longhi (Venice HS, Florida)
Cal State Fullerton JR OF/RHP Michael Lorenzen
OF/1B Dominic Smith (Junipero Serra HS, California)
1B Rowdy Tellez (Elk Grove HS, California)
Texas JR 3B/OF Erich Weiss
3B Travis Demeritte (Winder Barrow HS, Georgia)
OF Matthew McPhearson (Riverdale Baptist HS, Maryland)
SS/RHP Chris Rivera (El Dorado HS, California)
Rhode Island JR OF Jeff Roy
Arkansas JR RHP Colby Suggs
UCLA JR RHP Adam Plutko
Pepperdine JR LHP/OF Aaron Brown
TCU JR RHP Stefan Crichton
RHP Derik Beauprez (Cherry Creek HS, Colorado)
RHP Chris Viall (Soquel HS, California)
Arkansas JR 3B/1B Dominic Ficociello
2B/OF Anfernee Grier (Russell County HS, Alabama)
SS Connor Heady (North Oldham HS, Kentucky)
OF Josh Hart (Parkview HS, Georgia)
OF Jordan Paroubeck (Serra HS, California)
1B/C Corey Simpson (Sweeny HS, Texas)
OF Thomas Milone (Masuk HS, Connecticut)
3B Blake Tiberi (Holy Cross HS, Kentucky)
OF Corder Sandberg (Manatee HS, Florida)
3B/OF Jason Martin (Orange Lutheran HS, California)
SS Riley Unroe (Desert Ridge HS, Arizona)
3B John Sternagel (Rockledge HS, Florida)

Minnesota Twins 2012 MLB Draft Review

6 Aug 2012 2:51 AM / Leave a comment

I liked the idea of doing these draft recaps position-by-position because of the way they are designed to give an overarching idea of what kind of talent has been added to each team’s farm system. It could be that my mind works in that particular organized way – my favorite feature, strange as it sounds, of each year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook is the team-by-team positional depth chart illustrations – or it could be that I believe by thinking in terms of position, it is easier for me to see where prospects fit in in a larger, team-building context. Whatever the case is, Minnesota screwed it all up by taking pitcher after pitcher after pitcher. I literally can’t fill out a pretend lineup here. Thanks for nothing, Twins. I understand that the organization went heavy on infielders last year – worth noting that although Travis Harrison has excelled, the Twins haven’t gotten a darn thing out of the quartet of college middle infielders Levi Michael, Tyler Grimes, Adam Bryant, and AJ Pettersen – but it is still strange to see three positions (2B/SS/3B) completely ignored.

Minnesota’s 2012 infield prospects of note come down to Jorge Fernandez and DJ Hicks. Fernandez is a seventh round lottery ticket who was underscouted (i.e. missed by me) this spring. The Twins obviously saw something in him that they liked. I can’t add anything more than what Baseball America provided besides sharing that I had somebody tell me that they believe Fernandez compares favorably (he even preferred his bat) when stacked against Phildrick Llewellyn, an athletic catching prospect that I really liked prior to the draft. Llewellyn went a little bit later (13^th round), but close enough that I think the comparison has some merit. Based on that comparison alone, I think Fernandez is a prospect worth watching.

I had Hicks right smack in between a pair of similar hulking college first basemen in Ben Waldrip and Matt Snyder. Both Waldrip and Snyder were off the board in the tenth round, so, if you think I have any clue what I’m talking about, then Hicks is good value for what he is. So what he is? Hicks is a large man who should slot in nicely as an organizational masher who, if all goes according to plan, should help all of the minor league teams he’ll wind up on win some ballgames. I’m down with the idea that lineup protection is a myth, especially at the big league level, but I think there is something to be said for surrounding young, impressionable minor league hitters, especially those in the lowest levels of the chain coming straight out of high school, with mature veteran teammates. The minor leagues are about development, not winning and losing; fostering a winning climate, and, more importantly, winning habits, are dismissed as being a part of the latter when it is really an important step in a player’s long-term development.

We can skip right by the rest of the infield because, as mentioned earlier, the Twins didn’t draft a single player of note at second, short, or third. You’d think a team that led all of baseball in 2012 draft spending would have gotten somebody to catch the ball up the middle, but things didn’t work out that way. Nobody will care about that so long as this next guy pans out…

So much has already been written about Byron Buxton that I’m not sure I can add anything meaningful to the conversation. He’s a phenomenal athlete with three plus to plus-plus tools (speed, arm, defense) who also has a long, long way to go with the bat. I respect the heck out of any scout that watched Buxton hit over the past calendar year and said to himself, “That kid is going to be a good big league hitter,” because projecting a bat as far away as Buxton’s is more art than science. I can’t help but remember Paul DePodesta’s blog entry published the day the Padres selected a similar prospect, Georgia prep CF Donavan Tate, with the third overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft. I realize that the public nature of DePodesta’s comments kept him from divulging too much, but I think there’s still something to be learned about how a big league front office thinks here:

“There has been a lot of speculation surrounding this pick over the past few weeks, but Tate has always been in the front of our minds. He is a potential 5-tool player who plays in the middle of the diamond and is probably the best athlete in the draft. We’re taking our shot.”

As outsiders to the entire draft process, it is only natural to sometimes fall into the “appeal to authority” trap when we assume that every scouting department knows more than we do. The opposite is, of course, also true: draft analysts rush to pan a pick (Dylan Cozens, for example) without acknowledging the possibility that a scouting staff that has seen a player dozens of times may be on to something that even the best of their “unnamed sources” or limited personal viewings did not reveal. It is alright to admit that a team might have made a pick that we don’t presently understand may have been done for valid reasons. I think the larger unsaid truth when it comes to scouting is, when it comes right down to it, baseball isn’t all that difficult a game to figure out. Anybody from inside the game – whether that means a scouting director, area scout, or even a prospect/draft guru paid to write for one of the industry leading publications — who insists otherwise does so to protect their own self-interests. It’s hard to blame them for that, really; that’s how people with awesome jobs keep their awesome jobs. Admitting that what you do isn’t exactly rocket science opens you up to all kinds of unwanted criticism. If you keep saying things like “Scouting is a more intricate process than the casual fan can comprehend,” then you are keeping casual fans at a distance just far enough away so that they are less inclined to challenge the conventional wisdom. Scouting is a field that has been mythologized for no other good reason than to protect those already on the inside. I don’t think anybody would deny that scouting is a tough job done with little fanfare by people who work their butts off on a daily basis, but that doesn’t make it a job that can only be done by a select few individuals. I respect the profession enough to avoid using certain terminology whenever possible — I slip at times, but, for the most part, you won’t read about me “scouting” or writing “scouting reports” because I know I’m not a scout — but acting like only professionally trained scouts can give opinions about amateur or minor league prospects stunts positive potential avenues of discourse.

All of that is just a long way of saying that the Twins don’t really know whether or not they have a future star on their hands in Byron Buxton. They think they do, but they don’t know. If he does wind up a star, then I can guarantee you that Buxton’s biggest backers within the organization will make sure that his selection is the very first thing on their résumés, always and forever. I must make clear the following: big league scouting staffs do a tremendous amount of homework, from both a baseball and personal/home life point of view, before making the big decisions that come with early round draft picks and big money international signings. After all the hours of work, however, it ultimately comes down to DePodesta’s original line: we’re taking our shot. Do your homework, say a prayer, and take your shot.

I’m not entirely sure where all of that came from, so let’s just move on. Adam Brett Walker, or just plain Adam Walker as he’s listed on the Elizabethton Twins roster, has the physical tools to join Buxton in an exciting Twins outfield of the future. You could go one step further and add Miguel Sano into the mix as the left fielder to complete what is likely the minor leagues highest upside future outfield configuration – if all three of Sano, Buxton, and Walker reach their ceilings, look out. As much as I like Walker, I think his realistic upside is closer to useful, versatile role player (this is where I liked the pre-draft John Mayberry Jr. comps) than first-division starter.

Jake Proctor can run and field with the best center fielders in this year’s draft class, but his lack of power and well below-average plate discipline (9 BB/40 K in 183 AB) severely limit his upside as a hitter. Zach Larson has the chance to do more at the plate, but it will take time. There’s no comparing any high school prospect’s physical tools to Byron Buxton’s, but Larson does a lot of the same things well (speed, arm, defense) while exhibiting similar rawness as a hitter. Larson’s selection and overslot signing might be considered more of a coup by a team that didn’t take the super-rich man’s version with the number two overall pick, but he’s worth getting reasonably excited about all the same.

The initial reaction to Minnesota’s draft around the internet has fixated on the idea that the Twins went too heavy on pitchers without starting pitcher upside. Too many relievers/future relievers. Upon closer review, that seems like a fair assessment. JO Berrios is easily the most intriguing long-range pitching prospect drafted by the Twins – the chance for three above-average pitches, the way he holds his velocity late in games despite an improved though still less than ideal build, and his impressive performances against top competition all lend credence to this idea. Unfortunately, Berrios is the only guy you can point to as a definite long-term starting pitching prospect. An argument can be made that fellow high school pick Andre Martinez can also thrive in a starting role in pro ball, but I’m not sure I can go that far on a six-foot tall breaking ball reliant lefty. Minnesota did snag one potential back-end starter in DJ Baxendale. The Arkansas righthander fits the old standard for a Twins starting pitcher to a t: underwhelming fastball, good command of a diverse mix of pitches, and, above all else, above-average pitchability. Guys like Baxendale are interesting to me because there is very little margin for error: either he makes it as a fifth starter or he doesn’t make it at all. The typical fallback of relief work doesn’t take too kindly to pitchers with fringy fastballs who lack a legitimate breaking ball out-pitch. The same analysis could be more or less be applied to Taylor Rogers. Rogers’ lefthandedness, better showing this spring (stuff-wise), and more projectable build make him the better project going forward, as either a starting pitcher prospect or future reliever.

If you’re going to draft too many college relievers, you should at least draft good ones. The Twins did well to target and acquire a boatload of hard throwing potential big league relievers. You’d like to see these kinds of players picked later in the draft, but I’ve found that the concepts of “overdrafts” are more of a media creation than a real deal big league concern. Here’s my draft day philosophy du jour: draft who you want the round before you believe you can’t get him. If you really want JT Chargois and don’t believe he’ll be there the next time you draft, then you either draft him right this second or go a different direction and pray that he’ll still be around. Seems logical enough, right? Enough with the abstraction, let’s meet some of these real life, flesh and blood college relievers.

Luke Bard has improved significantly stuff-wise every year dating back to his high school days. His fastball was sitting upper-90s this past spring before missing time with a lat injury. It has been speculated that the Twins view him as a starter long-term, and I’ve heard positive things about his ability to throw a changeup. That said, smart money is on Bard winding up as a reliever by the time he breaks through at the upper-levels professionally. He’s good enough to excel in a late inning role, though I don’t see the classic closer stuff typically associated with relievers taken so early. The guy with that kind of stuff is the aforementioned JT Chargois. Chargois has gotten a lot of positive pub for his plus fastball/breaking ball combo, but I don’t think enough has been said about how interesting an all-around player he is. I’ve heard him compared favorably as a hitter to former Rice 1B/LHP Joe Savery. Chargois could be utilized as a Brooks Kieschnick type of weapon, but with more emphasis on his pitching than hitting. The odds of that happening are slim to none, and not just because Chargois is on an American League team, but it is a fun possibility to dream on. Melotakis is a little bit similar to Bard in that both are almost certainly relievers with just enough of that little something extra to have you believe they could start. All three could play prominent roles in the Minnesota bullpen throughout the remainder of the decade.

The Twins also did well to grab even more hard throwers a little bit later on in the draft. Zack Jones and Christian Powell can both run their fastballs up to the mid-90s while complementing that plus heat with breaking balls that flash above-average. Like Chargois, Jones is also a good enough hitter to potentially do some damage at the plate if the opportunity ever arises professionally. Also like Chargois, Jones’ stuff looks late inning ready more or less right out of the shoot. Tyler Duffey, a teammate of Chargois at Rice, doesn’t have the premium stuff of many of the relievers taken by the Twins, but could fill a middle inning role as a sinker/slider guy at the next level.

Alex Muren fits this new Twins profile of athletic, two-way relievers. In almost the same way I feel about projecting a high school player like Byron Buxton’s hit tool, I feel about making any proclamations about a pitcher like Muren. The young righthander from Cal State Northridge hasn’t done much from a performance perspective, but his history of flashing an above-average fastball and occasionally interesting cutter was obviously enough to tempt the Twins. My rankings are far from the last word, but, for the record, I had Muren as the 560^th best pitching prospect. That doesn’t make his selection as the 370^th overall pick good or bad, but that’s where I had him. I prefer Travis Huber, the 700^th overall pick, over Muren in the battle of the Twins two late round arms. Like Muren, Huber has underperformed relative to his stuff. The big difference between the two is that Huber’s performances haven’t been quite as disappointing and, more importantly, his stuff is flat better.

Add it all up and what do you get? One potential franchise cornerstone (Buxton), a high upside high school arm (Berrios), a strong complementary piece to a good lineup (Walker), and a plug and play near-ML ready bullpen (Chargois, Bard, Melotakis, Jones, Duffey, Powell, Rogers). It’s obvious that the success or failure of Buxton as a professional will ultimately define this draft, but the Twins hedged some of that risk by all but guaranteeing themselves eventual big league value by selecting their bevy of high floor college relievers.

Position-by-Position Breakdown of Prospects of Note

(Players are listed by draft order…included below each name, in italics, are each player’s pre-draft notes and ranking within position group)

7.220 Jorge Fernandez (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico)

17.520 DJ Hicks (Central Florida)

23. Central Florida rJR 1B DJ Hicks: ugly swing, but good bat speed and college production put him in the “if it ain’t broke…” category of young hitting prospects; his bat will be what carries him as his above-average hit tool (underrated, I think, and rare for such a big man) and plus power potential help him stand out in the crowd of college bats; plus arm strength; slow moving on bases and in the field; has shown promise on the mound with a fastball that sits 86-90 (92-94 peak), decent splitter, and slider with some promise; 6-5, 250 pounds

1.2 Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia)

1. OF Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia): 93-94 peak FB; plus-plus (80) speed; dead pull hitter; loves to swing; raw, but immensely talented; above-average to plus arm, closer to above-average now but accurate; crazy quick hands; bat speed, bat speed, bat speed; BJ Upton comp from an athletic standpoint makes sense; weirdest comp ever: Mike Schmidt, at least in terms of distance from plate and current swing; tremendous athlete; plus raw power; CF range if his instincts catch up, otherwise a potential Gold Glove winner in RF; 80 speed/60-70 arm/70 range

3.97 Adam Brett Walker (Jacksonville)

33. Jacksonville JR OF Adam Brett Walker: plus power upside; popular John Mayberry Jr. comps, especially in terms of frame makes a lot of sense; I’ll take the minority view and state that I think he has the chops to be an average RF as pro, but acknowledge that he could be very good defensively at 1B; average at best speed, but not for long as his body fills out; swing isn’t as long as you’d think and he’s a more refined ballplayer than often given credit; average hit tool; average at best arm; I think Walker gets an unfair reputation as a hulking all or nothing slugger who will have to hit 30+ homers to have any kind of long-term value; with a score of 45s/50s across the board, Walker’s game is relatively well-rounded – though, of course, it is still his power that will make him a potential big league regular or not; 6-5, 225 pounds

14.430 Jake Proctor (Cincinnati)

234. Cincinnati JR OF Jake Proctor: plus speed; good athlete; below-average arm; CF range; weird swing, but has been able to get it done at college level; 6-2, 215 pounds

20.610 Zach Larson (Lakewood Ranch HS, Florida)

156. OF Zach Larson (Lakewood Ranch HS, Florida): good athlete; good speed; good arm; CF range; raw; 6-4, 200 pounds

Pitching

1s.32 RHP JO Berrios (Papa Juan XXIII HS, Puerto Rico)

47. RHP Jose Orlando (JO) Berrios (Juan XXIII HS, Puerto Rico): 87-93 FB, 95 peak on island; easy velocity, some deception; good 71-74 CB; 75 CU; SL; 77-79 breaking ball, not sure what type; slight frame; more commonly 92-93 sitting velocity; update: 91-95 FB, 96-97 peak; 80-81 SL; 82-84 CU; holds velocity well

1s.42 RHP Luke Bard (Georgia Tech)

136. Georgia Tech JR RHP Luke Bard: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; was up to a more consistent 95-97 before his early season lat injury; good 80 SL gives him the second pitch needed to eventually pitch in a big league bullpen; 6-3, 200 pounds

2.63 LHP Mason Melotakis (Northwestern State)

83. Northwestern State JR LHP Mason Melotakis: had him 91-95 FB, 97 peak coming into year; currently sits 94-98 much more consistently, rarely dipping below 93 in short stints; 85-87 SL that flashes plus, but is far too inconsistent; shows CU; I think he can work as a starter because of his improved breaking ball and ability to hold his velocity (92-95) as a starter, but the lack of a reliable third pitch and mechanics that scare scouts likely keep him in the bullpen professionally; 6-3, 200 pounds

2.72 RHP JT Chargois (Rice)

20. Rice JR RHP JT Chargois: 90-94 FB; easy 95-96 peak but can also get it up to 98 with a little more effort; plus 78-83 CB; average 79-81 CU flashes plus; also shows 85-87 SL, but uses it almost exclusively as a chase pitch in the dirt; really tough to pick up ball out of his hand due to nasty angle in delivery; between deception, velocity, movement, and command, Chargois’ fastball is a true plus to plus-plus pitch; as a two-way prospect – I liked him as a hitter more his freshman season – his arm is fresh and his above-average athleticism goes without saying; big question is command of offspeed stuff; despite the overwhelming consensus that he’s a reliever only in the pros, I think he has three pitches to start if his arm action is deemed acceptable by a pro team, something that has a higher chance of happening that he gets credit for when you factor in his relative newness to pitching; has arguably one of the draft’s highest floors (big league setup guy) with the chance for more (elite closer/above-average big league starting pitcher); 6-3, 200 pounds

4.130 RHP Zack Jones (San Jose State)

185. San Jose State JR RHP Zack Jones: 93-95 FB, 97-98 peak; FB moves; flashes good SL; iffy command; iffy control; profiles as reliever all the way, which is unfortunate because he swings a mean bat (2011: .316/.383/.458 – 16 BB/30 K – 155 AB)

5.160 RHP Tyler Duffey (Rice)

132. Rice JR RHP Tyler Duffey: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good 79-82 CU; good two-seamer with above-average sink; hard 78-83 CB; average mid-80s SL that flashes plus; 6-3, 210 pounds

6.190 LHP Andre Martinez (Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida)

8.250 RHP Christian Powell (College of Charleston)

202. College of Charleston JR RHP Christian Powell: 87-91 FB, 96 peak; up to more consistent 91-94 this year, still peaking 96; above-average breaking ball when he locates it; has worked in an emerging CU that flashes above-average; 6-4, 215 pounds

10.310 RHP DJ Baxendale (Arkansas)

174. Arkansas JR RHP DJ Baxendale: 87-92 FB, 93-94 peak; good FB movement; good 84-85 SL; solid 80-82 CU; really good 69-71 CB that is his best pitch; mid-80s cutter; stuff down in 2012: 86-89 much of season, offspeed not nearly as sharp; ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes gives him back of the rotation upside, but might be best served by becoming a primarily fastball/curveball reliever at the next level; 6-2, 190 pounds

11.340 LHP Taylor Rogers (Kentucky)

154. Kentucky JR LHP Taylor Rogers: 87-92 FB; good 75-80 CB; better 77 CU; 83 SL; good command; similar prospect to Texas LHP Hoby Milner; good mix of projection, polish, and present stuff; 6-3, 170 pounds

12.370 RHP Alex Muren (Cal State Northridge)

560. Cal State Northridge JR RHP Alex Muren: has hit as high as 95 in the past, but sitting velocity is inconsistent and not nearly as hot; interesting 82-85 cutter; pitches like a two-way prospect, for better or worse – more of a thrower than a pitcher at this point, but could be molded into something by a patient coaching staff; 6-3, 200 pounds

23.700 RHP Travis Huber (Nebraska)

241. Nebraska JR RHP Travis Huber: 88-92 FB with sink, 93-95 peak; very good 83-84 SL; good CB; raw CU; good athlete; 6-3, 225 pounds

2012 MLB Trade Deadline Deals and the Draft (UPDATED)

31 Jul 2012 2:36 AM / Leave a comment

There figure to be at least a few more trades in the remaining hours between now and the trade deadline at 4:00 PM EST, so I’ll do my best to keep this post updated with whatever short and sweet notes I have on any recent draft prospects who have been dealt.

UPDATED: It is well after 4 PM, so here we go…

Bobby Borchering

Borchering is a player I once called one of my “absolute favorite bats” of the 2009 draft class. I also said he was an “outstanding pick” who I believed had the “best bat of any prep player.” He was the seventh best player in the 2009 MLB Draft, according to yours truly. So, what happened? Could a genius prognosticator possibly get it so wrong? Or is something more nefarious afoot? Probably the former, but let’s investigate anyway.

First, I should say that I remain a Borchering fan. I think he gets a bad rap in the prospect community for certain aspects of his game that aren’t entirely fair, but even a blind loyalist like myself finds it hard to argue with what seem to be the two biggest complaints concerning his game. Borchering’s strikeouts (28.1% of his career minor league at bats have ended in the sad, head shaking walk to the dugout) and subsequent lack of contact skills are obviously major concern one. Additionally, his defense at third, once thought to have the chance to be at least average in time (I said the following: “he’ll stick as a big league third baseman at least until his free agent years”), is now more appropriately graded as N/A, as any possibility of Borchering playing third base seems to out the window at this point. If he can hang in LF, however, then I think he could still reach the bigs as a potential power source capable of having some value through at least the end of his cheap rookie contract. If he had a discernible platoon split, preferably against lefthanded pitchers, then he’d make a really interesting, inexpensive platoon in left with the guy he was traded to Houston with.

Enough about the future, let’s go back to that aggressive draft ranking. Borchering as the seventh best player in the draft looks bad now, but, in my admittedly weak defense, the 2009 MLB Draft class was really, really shallow in hitting. In fact, I only had three position players among the top dozen 2009 prospects: Ackley (2^nd overall) first, then Borchering (7^th), and then Grant Green (8^th). Further down the list you have the following: Donovan Tate (13^th), Everett Williams (15^th), Wil Myers (23^rd), Luke Bailey (24^th), Max Stassi (28^th), Rich Poythress (29^th), Matt Davidson (31^st). Jason Kipnis (56^th), Kyle Seager (65^th), Nick Franklin (67^th), Brett Jackson (70^th), Billy Hamilton (80^th), and Jonathan Singleton (99^th). There was a decent hitter that I ranked 74^th that year, but I’m not sure if Mike Trout has amounted to much of anything as of yet. Looking back at some of those names, I’m not quite sure how weak the draft class really was in hitting. It isn’t easy to compare recent drafts because so many players still have unfinished business developmentally, but a top group of Trout, Myers, Kipnis, Ackley, Singleton, Franklin, Hamilton, and, depending on your personal taste, some combination of Seager, Green, and/or Jackson really isn’t that bad. To take it a step ahead, though my faulty memory will surely leave a few names out, of the guys I didn’t rank in that top 100, both Brandon Belt and Paul Goldschmidt have shown promise as hitters as well.

Marc Krauss

Outside of ranking Krauss as the 89^th best prospect in the 2009 Draft, I didn’t really write about the former Ohio star all that much. I remember liking his approach quite a bit, but being concerned that he might fall into the “tweener” trap that plagues so many bat-first corner outfield prospects. Without much value on defense, on the base paths, and, arguably, in the power department, there’s a lot of pressure on hitting/on-base ability to be legitimately great if you want a big league future. His 2012 AA performance has been encouraging, so I think there’s definitely hope he can make it in another year or so as a big league ready platoon (he has always drilled righties) bat.

Thomas Collier

Embarrassing admission alert: sometimes I completely forget about some of the players that I’ve written about. My dino-sized brain just can’t retain the baseball minutiae that it was able to hold. I remember liking Collier, so that’s good, right? Here’s what I said last year:

If one player stands out as a potential late round steal for Detroit, it’s San Jacinto JC RHP Tommy Collier (Round 22). Collier throws two plus pitches already, and, if healthy, has the chance to unleash his nasty slider once again.

You can never rule out minor league pitchers with hard fastballs and plus sliders eventually hanging on to pitch relief innings in the big leagues someday. Collier fits that mold.

Leon Landry

Wrote this back in the very earliest days of this site way back in December 2009:

JR OF Leon Landry (2010) had better be prepared for the onslaught of Jared Mitchell comps sure to be thrown his way this spring. The comparisons between the two football playing outfielders work in some ways (both players have plus speed and are ridiculous athletes, but each guy had a below-average arm), but fall apart in other areas, most notably in the power department. Landry has already shown as much present power through two seasons of collegiate development as Mitchell did through three. A more interesting crop of first round caliber talents in 2010 may push Landry’s draft position down past where Mitchell went in 2009 (23^rd overall), but I’m willing to go on the record and say that his forthcoming monster junior season will catapult his overall prospect stock past his former two sport teammate’s. He’s a potential plus defender in center with good range but a below-average arm for the position.

I was about 100 picks off with my bold first round prediction for Landry as he wound up getting selected with the 109^th overall pick to the Dodgers in 2010. He’s shown some power this year, but the gain in slugging from 2011 to 2012 (200 points!) might just have a little something to do with Landry spending the current season in the Cal League. This was his updated report written just before the draft in the spring of 2010:

14. Louisiana State JR OF Leon Landry (plus speed; plus athlete; raw in all phases; big power potential; legit defensive tools, but extremely inconsistent tracking balls in the air; 5-11, 195 pounds)

I think much of what was said then holds true today. Landry’s strengths remain his speed and, Cal League mirage or not, power upside. Mr. Obvious is hear to note that, yes, those are both pretty good strengths to have. I’m curious about whether or not he’s made any progress in the two areas of his game that concern me the most: rawness at the plate and rawness in the field. Landry’s weak BB-rate is a pretty good indicator of his continued rawness at the plate, though there could be underlying scouting observations (e.g. pitch recognition skills) that would tell a more colorful story. His rawness in the field is probably the most interesting single facet of the game at this point in his development: if he can play a competent or better CF, then he’s a future big leaguer, exact role (platoon partner to fifth OF) to be determined. If he’s limited to LF, things get dicey.

Seth Rosin

I miss February 2010, a far simpler time when a comparison to Boof Bonser had relevance on a draft website. Here’s Rosin’s first appearance on the site:

JR RHP Seth Rosin (2010) is build like a tank (6-6, 245) with the heavy artillery (sinking fastball at 88-92 MPH, peaking at 94) to go to battle. He’s secondary stuff (inconsistent mid-70s CB and a low-80s CU that needs a ton of work) currently lags behind, but I know of plenty scouts who believe both pitches will develop into at least usable options by the time he hits the high minors. Those scouts see him as a possible back of the rotation starter down the line, but I think his ceiling is closer to that of Boof Bonser. I know Bonser has 60 big league starts to his credit, but they were largely ineffectual innings. Now that he has switched to the bullpen in Boston, I’ve got a hunch that Bonser’s stuff will play up and make him an effective reliever going forward. Rosin’s future could very well play out the same way. Ineffectual fifth starter or dependable middle reliever? You make the call.

There was some good discussion in the comments section that fleshed the idea out with a little more depth:

The comparison to Bonser wasn’t meant to insult Rosin. Heck, Boof was a first round pick back in 2000, a draft spot that Rosin can only dream about. When I see Rosin, I see a pitcher without a current above-average or better secondary pitch at present. Bonser’s slider was/is miles ahead of Rosin’s curve. I acknowledged that many believe he’ll develop the offspeed stuff to pitch in the big leagues as a starter, but that’s something I’d need to see this spring before ranking him any higher on my personal board.

I still worry some about Rosin’s lack of a consistent second pitch, but his fastball, in terms of both his always excellent command and his professional uptick in velocity, has been so damn good that I’m not so sure he can’t find a niche in the big leagues based on his plus heater alone. I just so happened to be Gchatting with a pal as the Phillies/Giants trade went down. He asked for my thoughts, so here they were…totally uncensored, unedited, unformatted, and unsomethingsomething:

as for rosin, he’s 23.5 years old and still in high-A but ready for AA

real good fastball (velocity up in relief like most guys, so he’s mid-90s more regularly now), secondaries still lag behind (have heard the CU is ahead of the breaking ball — now a SL — but the SL has more of a chance in the long run), and, yeah, he’s still a real big dude (6-6, 250)

2:15 PM real good minor league numbers, too

2:16 PM like i said, should go right to Reading…if he does well there, he could be fighting for a spot in the big boy bullpen next spring

There you have it, folks: a glimpse into the inner-workings of a draft madman. I failed to originally mention to my buddy that Rosin has been pitching as a starter as of late. Many consider this an important detail — they aren’t wrong — but, for me, Rosin’s always been one of those fringe starting pitching prospect/really good middle relief prospect. Let him start now to get him the innings that could help him hone his offspeed stuff, but realize that his most likely destination is the seventh inning. Frequent readers know I like to comp players to death (legal notice: no player has literally died due to a comp), so it should come as no surprise that I think Rosin sounds a lot like another new Phillie reliever from a four-year university who was once selected within the top four rounds (breath) and just so happens to have a history starting in the past (breath) but has seen his career move forward as he developed a more well-rounded aresenal of pitches (breath) yet still remaining focused on his FB/SL combo, Josh Lindblom. My high school English teacher would be so proud/horrified at that sentence. Anyway, Rosin is Lindblom who is current injured Phillies reliever Mike Stutes. Comps on comps on comps on comps.

And, finally, the original Rosin/Minnesota baseball post inspired what I still consider to be the greatest comment I’ve ever gotten. I’ve reddened up the font a bit so that the full fury of his comment could be realized:

First of all I would just like to say that It is really sad that I would even acknowledge the moron that would write something with such little to no validity to anything that he would say. This guy prob just thought it would be a good idea to google search the guys on the Minnesota team and come up with no information outside of that. Also prob got cut from a high school baseball or if he did make the team he is prob that guy that thinks he is good enought to play college but never got asked let alone talked to any big league team Yet if you ask all his fat beer bellied never played a sport friends he told them he should be playing for the twins. Sorry about it worthless blogger. Get a job and move out of your parents basement.

Let’s move on.

Tommy Joseph

I like Tommy Joseph, I really do. Unfortunately, I don’t love him as much as everybody wanted me to today. Maybe I’m nuts, but it sure seemed like every reporter rushed to praise Joseph through the words of their unnamed “Rival NL Executive,” capped off by the always funny in his special little way Jon Heyman tweeting that he was told Tommy Joseph was “GREAT,” a sentiment that can only really be read in the voice of Tony the Tiger. I think Joseph is GOOD, and good is nothing to be down about. Truthfully, even getting me to the point where I’m cool with calling Joseph GOOD took some time. All week long, in anticipation of Hunter Pence winding up a Giant, I had prepared myself to stay calm if Joseph was the prospect centerpiece of a Phillies/Giants trade. “He’s nothing but a younger, slightly better version of a player already in their system (Sebastian Valle),” I thought. On top of that, I’ve never personally understood all of the Valle hype — raise an incredulous brow if you must, but Baseball America did have him as the third ranked Phils prospect heading into the season — so I’ve been at a loss in trying to figure out why I should be happy the Phillies seemed so intent on acquiring his (younger, slightly better) doppelgänger? So how did a stubborn guy like me begin to soften his anti-Joseph stance? Read below:

Tommy Joseph (Arizona) – 6-1, 210 catcher from the same high school as Tim Alderson and Brandon Wood who has scouts buzzing this spring; some have him as a late first rounder and a top three overall catching prospect; big arm and tons of power; I want to put him higher, but still haven’t seen/heard/read enough to be sold on him – if somebody has a compelling case, I’d love to hear it (that’s not me being snarky, I mean it – fill me in!); Arizona commit who has been compared to Ryan Doumit with more playable power

That was one of the earlier things I did on this site. The scouting notes are largely inconsequential compared to the larger context surrounding them. There was much wisdom in my younger self. “Still haven’t seen/heard/read enough to be sold on him” showed the values of patience, honesty, and abject transparency. “If somebody has a compelling case, I’d love to hear it” was an example of the importance of open-mindedness and the willingness to learn what we don’t already know. “Ryan Doumit with more playable power” was, well, honestly that was actually just a way of shoehorning Doumit into the conversation. Cool name, solid player, and the creepiest soulless black eyes you’ll ever have the privilege of staring into. Observe:

Not a day goes by when I don’t try to casually mention Ryan Doumit and his eyes of darkness in my everyday life. Now that this stroll down memory lane has taken a horrible turn, let’s just skip ahead to my initial unedited Gchat response:

maybe i’m just down on him because he’s just not my sort of catcher

ruiz is pretty much my ideal for the position – body type, athleticism, thinks like a pitcher, well-rounded offensive game

1:57 PM joseph, and valle for that matter, are both just a little too one-dimensional for me: huge power, but little patience and questionable defense

that said, joseph’s power might be so good that it overcomes other shortcomings. plus, all the reports on his defense are exciting – they say he’s really, really improved back there

1:58 PM so what the hell…i’m on board

Analysis!

Zack Cox

I ranked Cox as the 36th best prospect available in the 2010 MLB Draft. On one hand I wasn’t as overboard in love with him as some seemed to be at the time. On the other hand, there’s no escaping the fact that I thought he’d be a really solid professional third baseman in relatively short order. On a different hand, I overshot the mark on arguably every single one of his tools, especially his hit tool, raw power, and foot speed. On my last hand (yes, I have four hands), I’m not quite ready to jump off the Cox as solid big league third baseman bandwagon just yet. Cox has moved quickly as a pro and I think a consolidation year is in order. Let him finish the year in AAA, then give him another half year at the same level in 2013. If the Marlins are patient, they might yet get the player many thought Cox could be. Here’s what I wrote on Cox before the draft in 2010:

Easily confused fellow that I am, I don’t quite understand the negativity surrounding Cox’s power potential that has come to the surface this season. It seems to me that he can’t really win with some people. Last year people oohed and aahed as he flashed prodigious raw power, but disappointed in the plate discipline department. This year he’s taken a much more patient, contact-oriented approach, but is getting heat for not hitting for the same power as he did his freshman year. I realize slugging .600+ and socking 20 extra base hits in college (like Cox has done so far in 2010) isn’t quite the feat it appears to be at first blush, but it’s still a decent indicator that the guy hasn’t been reduced to a singles only hitter this year. Now imagine the possibility that good professional coaching can help Cox unlock the secret of maintaining his gains in plate discipline and a high contact rate while simultaneously helping him rediscover the big power stroke of his first collegiate season. Sounds pretty good, right?

As arguably the draft’s top position player prospect, much has already been written about Cox’s toolset. The cliff notes version is this: potential plus bat, above-average present power but plus projection, 45/50 runner, plus arm, good defender. His worst tool is probably his speed, and, as you can see, even that project to be around average. I think Cox’s ceiling is below that of your typical top half of the first round college bat, but he’s still a relatively safe pick to be an above-average regular third baseman for a first division club.

Josh Edgin: From Round 50 to Citi Field

30 Jul 2012 3:42 PM / Leave a comment

Totally original thought of the day: the MLB Draft is really, really unpredictable. Bold statement, I know, but there’s something amazing about a professional sports draft that allows for even the outside possibility that somebody selected after 1,497 other big league hopefuls can actually make it to the highest level. Josh Edgin, a lefthanded starting pitcher from Francis Marion University (by way of Ohio State), was drafted in the fiftieth (50^th!) round in 2009. Think about how crazy that is for a moment: Edgin was deemed not quite good enough to get drafted 1,497 times over before the Braves pulled the trigger with the 1,498^th overall pick. A little perspective here: only 14 of the 49 2009 first round (including the supplemental round) picks have reached the big leagues. Many more seem like stone cold locks to make their big league debuts in the not too distant future – Tony Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller, Grant Green, and Tyler Skaggs, just to name a few – while others face seemingly insurmountable roads to even crack a AAA roster (we’ll withhold names to protect the innocent, but a quick look at this list is quite revealing) before they hang up the spikes. Future progress of these first rounders aside, there’s something special about beating the majority of your draft class’ first round picks to the big leagues.

Of course, mentioning Edgin as a member of the 2009 draft class is cheating because, as any Mets (and a few die-hard Braves) fan knows, Edgin didn’t sign in 2009. He waited until after his senior season in 2012 – upgraded to the thirtieth (30^th) round by that point – to begin his pro career. Normally we won’t associate a prospect with a draft year they go unsigned (think of the problems this would cause for high school players who wind up at four-year universities), but Josh Edgin’s meteoric rise to the big leagues is proof that sometimes it is alright to roll with an exception or two.

I didn’t write anything about Josh Edgin on the site back in either 2009 or 2010, so, to make up for not knowing who he was for far long, here are a few quick bullet points on the player I consider to be one of the underrated success stories of 2012:

After signing with the Mets in 2010, Edgin made the big leagues in just over two years. College seniors move quick, true, and the same can be said about relief prospects, but two years is still pretty impressive.
As a minor leaguer, Edgin put up outstanding numbers at every stop along the way. His worst K/9 in any extended stretch was his 9.00 K/9 in A+ ball last season.
Edgin has above-average velocity for a lefthander (per Fangraphs, he’s averaging an impressive 93 MPH in this year’s big league run), throws lots of sliders (an effective out-pitch thus far), and will mix in an occasional changeup when necessary
Edgin’s excellent aforementioned minor league numbers are even better when you only look at what he has done against lefthanders. However, his stuff and stats indicate that he’s not necessarily a lefty specialist only. However (again), in his small big league sample, righties have hit him just fine (.286/.412/.571 in a whopping 17 plate appearances). He’s held lefties down to a combined .333 OPS, striking out over half (11 of 21) of the lefthanded batters he has faced thus far.

Whether or not Edgin’s future is as a highly specialized lefty neutralizer or something more, it is fair to say that his cumulative professional performances since signing have put him in a position to land a steady role in the 2013 Mets bullpen. Not bad for a one-time fiftieth round pick.

Colton Cain and Scott McGough

25 Jul 2012 10:20 PM / Leave a comment

I was planning on posting something with a more historical — going way back in the archives to the year 2009 — bent this afternoon, but with the trade deadline less than a week away and deals being made at a 2 Fast, 2 Furious pace, it only makes sense to go with what’s topical by discussing some of the prospects who are on the move. Pittsburgh and the Dodgers both beefed up their rosters in the hopes of some “flags fly forever” postseason glory, but, as we covered yesterday, the established big leaguers swapping laundry are nowhere as interesting — in the context of this site, naturally — than the recently drafted prospects hitting the road.

First, we have the Pirates overpaying Houston for Wandy Rodriguez. The money saved on moving Rodriguez and the addition of Robbie Grossman makes the trade a big win for the Astros, a franchise that I think will serve as a fantastic case study that will help answer the question “how long does it take to rebuild an organization?” over the next few seasons. One of the first steps to going from 100+ losses to competitive is figuring out how to flip bad contracts for useful parts. These useful parts tend to come in one of two standard archetypes: high ceiling/total bust floor lottery tickets OR average ceiling/big league backup floor near-ML ready talent. Ideally you can shed salary while picking up a combination of the two prospect types, though it is interesting to see that Jeff Luhnow and company have focused predominantly on the latter thus far. It’s too early to say that they are doing this as an organizational philosophy — there’s enough grey area between strictly adhering to an overarching philosophy and simply riding wherever the wave of the trade market takes you that as outsiders we can’t ever fully appreciate — but I happen to like Houston’s approach so far. The Astros have so far to come from a talent standpoint as an organization that adding cheap, controllable talent close to the big leagues will help buy time (and, as importantly, future payroll flexibility) while the players with star upside germinate in the minors.

Speaking of players with star upside, let’s finally tie this whole thing back to the draft. The Astros will get a full draft recap within the next few weeks/months, but, spoiler alert!, the addition of first overall pick Carlos Correa gives them the exact type of franchise-altering cornerstone talent that they’d be foolish to shop for on the trade market. The additions of overslot prep bats Rio Ruiz and Brett Phillips could also play major dividends down the road, though both players come with significant risk.

They stayed true to what I believe is their plan — we’ll call it the “hey, we owe it to our fans to not be terrible for years, so let’s instead try to identify a few cheap, young assets that the people of Houston can watch grow while we bide our time developing star talent in the minors that will make the fans thrilled that they stuck by our side during the lean years” — by supplementing the high boom/bust factor of Correa, Ruiz, and Phillips with college position players (their draft was curiously short on arms, I’m now noticing) that should move quickly. Few better players embody the average ceiling/big league backup floor archetype better than second round pick Nolan Fontana, and later picks like Tyler Heineman and Dan Gulbransen also fit the mold. Brady Rodgers, the only arm drafted between rounds 2 and 8, is cut from the same cloth. Of course, after all that, it is worth mentioning that Lance McCullers (star-ceiling/big league floor) is proof that the two categories of prospects do not begin to describe all of the prospect types of the spectrum. We’re getting further and further (I reference this in my writing daily, yet still screw it up almost as often) away from my original point, so let’s get back to the recent trades before I get totally lost in the Houston draft wormhole.

Houston is clearly moving in the right direction, and I think their path, from terrible to slightly less terrible to better AND, hopefully, more willing/able to spend to, finally, consistently competitive in the wild AL West will be fascinating to follow. Grossman is a good player, lefthander Rudy Owens is fine, and, finally, Colton Cain was well worth a flier. Fun Colton Cain fact of the day: the newest Astros lefthanded pitcher (well, he’s as new as Owens but you get my point) was once ranked between Jeff Malm (Tampa) and Jonathan Singleton (Houston) on a list of top draft-eligible high school first basemen. I revisited that ranking last summer and wrote the following (non-bold was from last year, bold signifies pre-draft notes from 2009):

2. Colton Cain | Pittsburgh Pirates | 8th Round (2009)

3.13 ERA – 95 IP – 74 K/26 BB – 0.89 GO/AO

Cain is pitching well as a youngster (20 all season) in Low A with the added bonus of still not having a ton of mileage on his arm. His solid 2011 performance was preceded by good performances last year (strong peripherals). I like pitchers like Cain: guys with good enough fastballs to keep getting looks and secondaries that will either click and become legit big league pitches all at once or…not. Of course there is some middle ground between the two outcomes, but not as much as one might think. If you’re patient you may wind up with a three-pitch starting pitcher, but the risk here is fairly self-evident.

first thing that stands about about Cain is his very pretty lefthanded stroke; like a lot of the players on this list has an unusually strong arm for a first base prospect; because of that raw arm strength many scouts like him at least as much on the mound as at the plate; I like him as the prototypical two-way high school player that has the potential to really emerge once he concentrates on hitting full time; Texas commit

I really did prefer him as a hitter back in his high school days, but obviously the Pirates, and, by extension, now the Astros disagree with me. What nerve. I’ll stand by what I wrote last year — “if you’re patient you may wind up with a three-pitch staring pitcher” — though, due to a mostly uninspiring season in high-A (6.12 K/9), I’m less confident in that outcome than I was twelve months ago. As a two-way player (predominantly a hitter) in high school and a pitcher who has missed some developmental time after back surgery, there’s still reason to believe that the light bulb will go off and his low-90s fastball will be joined by a consistent curve and changeup. It is worth repeating that Grossman and the money saved made this deal worth doing for Houston; the addition of Cain, a player the Pirates once paid over a million bucks to pass on Texas, is the lottery ticket. The Astros can’t expect to win the jackpot here, but scratching off the ticket is fun enough in and of itself…plus you never know when you might win a few bucks for your troubles.

***

In the most controversial deal thus far, the Dodgers picked up Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate from the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough. Eovaldi is a good get by the Marlins, especially considering the lack of money changing hands in this deal, though I think he ultimately winds up in the bullpen down the line. Take that analysis with a grain of salt, however, as I’ve never really met a Dodgers pitching prospect that I’ve particularly liked. I’m not so dumb to call any one of Zach Lee, Allen Webster, Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Garrett Gould, Chris Withrow, or Aaron Miller bad pitching prospects, but I think each one has been overrated by many of the national pundits. Always was, and remain, a big fan fan of Ethan Martin, so at least there’s that. Don’t hate me Dodgers fans!

The relevant draft piece to this trade is, of course, 2011 fifth round pick Scott McGough. McGough was the 164th overall pick and my own 139th ranked draft prospect heading into the draft. Here’s what I wrote both directly after (plain italics) and before (bold italics) the draft:

Oregon RHP Scott McGough has a fastball with excellent life, a much improved slider that has become an interesting future strikeout pitch, and enough of a low- to mid-80s changeup that leaves you thinking it could be a consistent above-average offering in due time. His profile reminds me a bit of former Angels reliever Scot Shields, but with a better fastball. Having seen both McGough and Reed pitch a few times each in conference play, I’m sticking with my belief that McGough has the brighter professional future.

Oregon JR RHP Scott McGough: 90-92 FB, peak 94-95; 78-79 CB; raw 83 CU; above-average 78-83 SL that flashes plus; potential plus 82-85 CU that is still very raw; working on splitter; great athlete; 6-1, 185 pounds

McGough hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a professional (control has been an issue at Rancho Cucamonga), but his career K/9 mark just under 10 in over 70 innings looks damn fine to me. His fastball remains a good pitch and he’ll flash enough above-average offspeed stuff to look like a future big league middle reliever. I’m still likely to look dumb for that McGough > Reed prediction, but if both wind up as solid big league pitchers, well, I could live with that.

Miami/Detroit Trade: From a Draft Perspective

24 Jul 2012 1:31 AM / Leave a comment

The Ichiro deal to the Yankees may have stolen the headlines, but the more interesting trade on July 23, 2012, from both a recent draft perspective and for the long-term implications, has to be the five player deal between the Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins. You could say the same thing about the players involved in the deal: Anibal Sanchez is a quality arm, and Omar Infante is useful in his own way, but the most interesting players involved in the deal are the three prospects and two draft picks changing hands. Let’s take a quick draft-oriented look back at the three Detroit players who are now the newest members of the Miami Marlins organization.

The obvious key to the deal for Miami was obtaining prized righthanded pitching prospect Jacob Turner. I had Turner rated as the ninth best draft prospect in 2009, and, lo and behold, he went off the board to Detroit at pick number nine. I revisited his stock just eleven months ago (see below), and not enough has changed since then to make a rehashing worth it. I won’t profess to have a great deal of knowledge of Detroit’s player development program, but it sure seems like the scouting department’s love of hard throwers (good!) doesn’t jive with the coaching staff’s peculiar desire to see their arms pitch to contact and get ground balls (not so good). A two player sample may or may not be meaningful depending on your view, but the backslides of both Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner is a tad disconcerting to me.

His repertoire is similar to [Shelby] Miller’s, from the plus-plus fastball to the promising curve and change. Come to think of it, not much has changed from Turner’s high school days, at least in terms of future stuff grades: fastball has always been a weapon, curve still has plus upside, and change is well on its way to becoming a nasty third offering.

Good size? Is 6-4, 205 good enough? Check.
Good athlete? Solid, if not spectacular. Check.
Clean mechanics out of a ¾ delivery? Check.
Fastball velocity? How does a peak velocity of 93-94 MPH sound?
Good command? Check.
Off-speed repertoire? Curveball is already a plus pitch and circle change should be an average big league offering, at worst.
College scholarship from a school that knows pitching? If North Carolina wants you to pitch for them, you’re probably a good one. If you decided to Carolina only after turning down Vanderbilt, you’re almost certainly a good one. Those two universities have coaching staffs that really know their pitching. Check.

Rob Brantly was a huge favorite of mine dating back to his earliest days at UC-Riverside. I actually had him ranked as the 2010 MLB Draft’s 32^nd best prospect on the annual “way too early” big board back in October 2009. He moved up one spot (31^st, for the math-challenged) by February, when I also first compared him to Derek Norris. He finally settled in as the sixth ranked college catching prospect that year. That doesn’t sound great, but when you consider the first two names on the list are already big league players (Bryce Harper and Yasmani Grandal) things don’t seem quite as bad. Mike Kvasnicka (ouch), Micah Gibbs (ouch, again), and Matt Szczur (still a big fan) also fit in to the top five. I also doubled downed on the Derek Norris comp at that point, writing the following:

Originally my favorite four-year college in the 2010 class, Brantly’s sophomore season hasn’t really done too much to hurt his stock, but has nonetheless seen his spot in the rankings slip as other college guys have simply done more. The one and only time (maybe) I’ll lift something directly from the always wonderful Baseball America comes now:

[Redacted] has a strong, compact swing and the ability to make consistent, hard contact to all fields. He has a mature, patient offensive approach, excellent pitch recognition and advanced strike-zone awareness. He has above-average power to the pull side and also good power the other way.

That could very easily be written about Rob Brantly, but it was actually the most recent scouting report on Washington’s Derek Norris. The comparison isn’t perfect, but I think it works as a general outline – big bat, professional strike-zone awareness, solid defensive tools, but not yet a reliable backstop. Norris was a fourth round steal out of high school in 2007; Brantly could be the college equivalent, in round and value, here in 2010.

Obviously, I overshot Brantly’s professional power upside by a pretty wide margin, but I remain a believer in his on-base skills and good enough defense behind the plate. He’s a solid player who is close to big league ready. Once he gets the call, he should settle into a long career as a backup catcher with the chance to break through as the lefthanded strong side of a platoon.

The last piece of the Marlins return is hulking lefthander Brian Flynn. I’ve heard him compared to Phillies reliever Michael Schwimer, a similarly sized (actually listed at the exact same 6-8, 240 pounds) pitcher who relies on deception to help an otherwise average fastball play up. Strong minor league performances thus far give hope that he can stick as a starter, but I think a future in middle relief – where he’d go FB/SL/occasional CU, just like Schwimer – is the most likely outcome.

I was impressed Detroit got a deal done with Wichita State LHP Brian Flynn, a draft-eligible sophomore that many had pegged as likely to return for one more season with the Shockers. Lefties who are 6-8, 240ish pounds and can reach the mid-90s don’t come around too often, but it wasn’t just Flynn’s questionable signability that dropped him to the 7th round. At this precise moment in time, Flynn is a one-pitch pitcher. Even that one pitch, his fastball, isn’t that great an offering when you factor in his inconsistent ability to harness it. If the slider keeps developing and he shows he can work in the occasional change, then we might have a dark horse starting pitching prospect. If not, Flynn will try to make it in the competitive world of professional relief pitching.

As for the pick for pick portion of the trade, I’ll let Baseball America’s Jim Callis, the best in the business, do the writing:

The Marlins gave up the last pick in the supplemental first round (currently No. 37) for the final pick in the supplemental second round (currently No. 73).

This year, the No. 37 selection had an assigned value of $1,394,300 and the No. 73 choice was worth $701,700. That’s a difference of $692,600. Those values will be adjusted based on the growth of industry revenues this year, so how much exactly the Tigers added to their bonus pool and the Marlins subtracted from theirs has yet to be determined.

So, Detroit moves up a round and gets some extra draft spending cash. Seems relatively fair when you consider Anibal Sanchez is a free agent in just over two months. My only concern, and this is admittedly cynical and biased against what I consider an awful Miami ownership group, is that Miami suggested the draft pick swap in a long-term effort to save some money. All in all, however, the trade makes a lot of sense for both sides. Detroit gets a short-term fix in their quest for a championship in 2012: Sanchez is good enough to start the second game of a playoff series if need be and Infante is at least better than what they’ve currently got at second. Miami gets an exciting starting pitching prospect, recent big leagues ups and downs notwithstanding, and two players that should contribute something to the big club within the next year or two. As an outsider, I valued Turner as a shiny enough trade chip to hold out for more, but I understand their urgency in making what they believed was the best deal for them at this time.

San Francisco Giants 2012 MLB Draft Review

23 Jul 2012 3:23 PM / Leave a comment

San Francisco’s 2012 MLB Draft Selections

I try not to draw too many conclusions from observing how a team drafts from the outside looking in, but there are always some interesting draft day patterns worth noting. For the San Francisco Giants, off the bat, it is pretty clear to see a surprising lack of, well, bats. Outside of Mac Williamson, there wasn’t a position player drafted by the Giants that I think even the most prospect-obsessed could realistically say is a potential big league regular. A case could be made for any one of Ryan Jones, Tyler Hollick, or Shayne Houck as the next best bet, but, like many of the hitters drafted by San Francisco, they all currently profile best as backups.

That actually leads to the next observation of the Giants 2012 draft: depth selections identified by the ability to play multiple positions. Jones, a second baseman by trade, also has extensive experience at the hot corner. Hollick currently plays a mean center field, but has shown well at second in the past. Prior to the draft, teams I spoke to were split 50/50 on whether or not Houck worked best as a third baseman or left fielder professionally. You can do the same with almost every position player drafted by the Giants. Trevor Brown, a prospect I’ve heard compared to a lighter, lesser version of current Giant minor leaguer and former Cal State Fullerton star Brett Pill, is a catcher who can also hold his own at any non-shortstop infield spot. Matt Duffy has played all over the diamond. Mitch Delfino has split time between third base and the mound, and Sam Eberle has done the same at third base and catcher. Andrew Cain has seen time at both corner outfield spots and first base. Even the owner of the Giants’ biggest draft bat, Williamson, a great athlete who many once believed had the agility and arm strength to be moved behind the plate, has pitching experience.

As for the talent level of the hitters drafted, well, there isn’t a ton of great news for Giants fans. The majority of the position players selected by San Francisco look like the kind of players typically considered organizational guys. The infielders (Brown, Duffy, Delfino, Eberle) all lack the type of raw physical tools associated with ballplayers capable of playing at the highest level. You can never totally rule out players capable of playing solid defense up-the-middle (good news for both Brown and Duffy, and potentially Eberle), but none of the aforementioned infielders will crack any offseason top thirty prospect list for the organization. Of all their drafted infielders, Jones stands the best chance of someday seeing time in the big leagues as a utility infielder.

Things are better in the outfield, though I realize that may sound like damning with faint praise. The selection of Williamson, he of above-average big league corner outfielder upside, alone makes this a better group of prospects over the infielders. There’s currently too much swing-and-miss to his game for him to reach his considerable ceiling, but college guys with power hitting track records are becoming a dying breed. In that light, a third round gamble makes some sense. I compared Williamson to Adam Brett Walker prior to the draft, but a more natural comparison seems to be his new organization-mate with the Giants, former Louisville standout and fellow third round pick Chris Dominguez. I know a lot of people like to hate on comps, but, come on, that’s a good one: fourth-year juniors from underrated baseball schools, similar size (6-4ish, 230ish), third round picks, strong enough arms to pitch, big raw power, trouble with anything that isn’t a fastball, worrisome strikeout totals – this thing writes itself! Williamson’s superior athleticism and speed give hope that he’ll adjust better to pro ball and/or provide more long-term defensive value. I’m already on record as stating Williamson alone makes the outfielders a better group than the infielders, but that shortchanges the potential contributions of a few other fly catchers taken by the Giants. It isn’t just Williamson that makes the outfield group intriguing. I’ve mentioned my affinity for Hollick already, but let’s go a little deeper. An argument can be made that Hollick, a player I didn’t give nearly enough love pre-draft, is the best position player drafted by the Giants. His scouting profile reads similar to current Giants prospect Gary Brown, but Hollick has a much stronger track record of working deep counts and drawing walks. McCall also deserves consideration as San Francisco’s top 2012 position player selection, though I’d have him behind Williamson, Hollick, and perhaps Jones. McCall is athletic enough to play either corner spot with an arm that should play at least average in right. The big question is, of course, whether or not he’ll hit enough to hold down an offensively demanding position in the big leagues. I’m encouraged by both what I’ve seen and heard, but would be lying if I could answer beyond that with any kind of certainty. Unlikely as it may be, a future all 2012 Draft outfield of McCall-Hollick-Williamson, from left to right, is fun to dream on. That trio could be backed up down the line by a pair of solid organization depth pieces in Cain and Houck. Both are older prospects – another San Francisco draft trend – who found themselves on the wrong side of 22 before notching their first pro at bats. Cain appears similar to Williamson on paper (big, good runner, intriguing power), but his tools aren’t quite as loud. Call him a deep sleeper as a 24^th round pick and be prepared to either look super smart someday or, more likely, forget about him after he fails to make it to AA. Houck’s value would get a big boost if he shows he can play a little third base in addition to the outfield corners, but, like Cain, he’ll need to get his rear in gear in pro ball if he wants to keep cashing those sweet, sweet minor league paychecks.

San Francisco’s draft strategy when it comes to their approach to pitching was fairly clear in 2012: load up on college arms, early and often. The emphasis on high-floor/low-ceiling older arms wouldn’t be as troubling if buttressed with a few interesting long-term gambles at the high school level, but there is nary a signed prep arm to be found in this class. Fortunately, getting a pitcher like Chris Stratton with the twentieth overall pick makes it all worth it. Quibble with the no high school pitching approach if you must (seriously, though, what’s up with that?), but the Giants have a strong track record of identifying and developing pitchers at the top of their drafts. The last six drafts have produced the following first day pitchers: Kyle Crick, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson (the weak link of the group, but, hey, he did enough to bring value in a trade), and Tim Lincecum. It’s a little bit scary to think that Stratton could wind up as the fourth most successful pitcher of that group (fifth if you’re a big believer in Crick) and still be considered a major steal in this spot. There are some legitimate concerns surrounding his age (22 in August, old for a college junior) and workload (multiple 2012 starts well past 120+ pitches), but there’s really no questioning his outstanding stuff. Stratton boasts a full arsenal of pitches (FB, CB, CU, SL, cutter, two-seamer) that is as impressive in quality as it is in depth. I promised I wouldn’t turn these draft recaps into warmed over rehashes of my pre-draft analysis, but it’s probably worth mentioning that Stratton was my sixth favorite prospect in the entire draft, one spot ahead of the far more famous Mark Appel. Martin Agosta is another easy to like young righthander with a good chance of one day taking a big league mound as a starting pitcher. Two above-average offspeed pitches (cutter/slider thing and changeup) to go along with his solid fastball (made better be excellent command) are exactly what teams are looking for in prospective starters.

Steven Okert and Ty Blach could also be considered potential starters, but I think both will settle into relief roles after some of the adorable draft optimism (I only say this because I’m guilty of it every year) wears off. Okert goes plus fastball/above-average slider while mixing in a usable changeup with the chance for more. Blach’s stuff is more solid across the board – slider is just as good though not as consistent as Okert’s, but he’ll compensate by using a much more effective change – so the thought of him starting is a little bit easier to envision. I think both guys are ultimately relievers with Okert potentially being a darn good one.

I actually liked what the Giants did in targeting hard throwing yet flawed college relievers, though, upon closer review, the flaw in their approach becomes alarmingly evident. Okert, Stephen Johnson and EJ Encinosa are all almost certainly (call it a 99% certainty) relievers professionally. All are quality arms coming off really strong college seasons. All three throw hard, have good size, and feature at least one above-average or better secondary pitch. We’ve covered Okert already as a potential starting pitching convert, so we’ll focus on the two college relief aces. Johnson has arm strength you can’t teach but is in dire need of a consistent offspeed pitch, which hopefully you can. Encinosa profiles as a high-floor sinker/slider middle reliever, but with more mustard on both his four- and two-seam fastballs than your typical sixth/seventh inning guy. I like all three picks: cheap, controllable arms are big parts of what I think make good teams good. The less money spent on unpredictable, fungible middle relief, the more money is freed up to acquire elite talent at positions that have a greater nightly impact on the game. If all you achieve from one draft class is a half dozen or so legit big league relief options, then you’ve potentially saved yourself millions down the line. Then again, you could always avoid the temptation to blow money on veteran relievers in the first place, but that’s neither here nor there. What does come into the play is the concept of opportunity cost. A good argument could be made that of all the relievers selected by the Giants, the guy taken in the sixteenth round (we’ll get to him soon) is the most talented. If you can get quality relievers that late, and you can, then why spent a fourth, sixth, and seventh on relievers in the first place? Even Jason Forjet and Brandon Farley, 31^st and 33^rd rounders respectively, can be called potential big league relievers. They may not be on the level of Okert, Johhnson, or Encinonsa, but the cost of using a late-round pick on them is significantly less. Another example is 26^th rounder Mason McVay. McVay throws hard (when healthy), has good size (6-8, 240 pounds), and features at least one above-average or better secondary pitch (curve). Sound familiar? Back to our aforementioned friend from round sixteen: Ian Gardeck continues the theme of plus fastball velocities with his mid- to upper-90s heater. His slider is devastating when on, a true plus big league out-pitch that hitters have a hell of a time recognizing before swinging over it. That’s the good news. The less good news is that I’m only half-kidding when I say the Giants might think about getting Gardeck’s eyes checked because it looks like he has no idea where the catcher is crouching half the time. The problem is likely in his mechanics, and not his arm, eyes, or head. If he can upgrade his control from nonexistent to “effectively wild,” then he’ll join Johnson in having big league closer upside.

All in all, I think we’re looking at five potential above-average big league relievers: Okert, Johnson, Encinosa, Gardeck, and McVay. Since wishing for different picks is fruitless at this point, all we can really do now is hope that two or three (or four!) live up to their promise and do our best to forget about what might have been. You don’t want to make a habit of rooting for a sweet relief pitching haul to be the best part of your draft class, but it’s better than nothing, right?

We’re just short of 3,000 words in what was intended as a short recap, so let’s hustle up and finish this thing. I am honestly surprised that Joe Kurrasch jumped to pro ball – he simply didn’t look ready when I saw him, and I heard similar things throughout the spring. Forjet and Farley both flash enough big league stuff to warrant follows as they travel through pro ball. I personally prefer Farley because he’s shown a little more zip on his fastball over the years, but when you’re debating the merits of two college relievers picked past the thirtieth round, everybody wins. Andrew Leenhouts is intriguing as a cold weather pitchability lefthander with the three pitches to start for a bit. His best chance of advancing to the bigs is probably via the bullpen (like so many college lefties, I’d love to know his splits to see if the lefty specialist path makes sense), but I think his talent level is closer to Blach’s than Kurrasch’s. That can be read in one of two ways, depending on your outlook on life: a) Leenhouts was good value for a 23^rd round pick, or b) Blach was a serious overdraft in the fifth round.

Position-by-Position Breakdown of Prospects of Note

(Players are listed by draft order…included below each name, in italics, are each player’s pre-draft notes and ranking within position group)

10.328 Trevor Brown (UCLA)

77. UCLA JR C Trevor Brown: good defensive skills; good athlete; smooth defender at first base; can also play 2B; lack of power limits his offensive ceiling, but defensive versatility and a competent bat could carry him farther up the chain than you’d think; 6-2, 200 pounds

13.418 Ryan Jones (Michigan State)

22. Michigan State rJR 2B Ryan Jones: good speed; good approach; limited power upside; already a good defender at 2B and can also play 3B effectively; no standout tool, but easy to walk away impressed with him as a heady, instinctive ballplayer who does the little things right; 5-10, 170 rounds

18.568 Matt Duffy (Long Beach State)

58. Long Beach State JR SS Matt Duffy: nice swing; can play average defense at least at all spots on diamond; utility future; 6-2, 170 pounds

20.628 Mitch Delfino (California)

65. California JR 3B Mitch Delfino: average defender with what looks like a good enough arm once he gets his throwing mechanics retooled; has shown enough promise with the bat to get a look in the mid-rounds; 6-3, 210 pounds

25.778 Sam Eberle (Jacksonville State)

52. Jacksonville State SR C Sam Eberle: decent defender who might fit best at 3B in pro ball; good athlete; strong; good runner for either defensive spot; bat could be above-average if allowed to catch at next level, but he’ll have to improve footwork and speed of release; 6-1, 220 pounds

3.115 Mac Williamson (Wake Forest)

32. Wake Forest rJR OF Mac Williamson: impressive raw tools, emphasis on raw; above-average to plus arm strength; too aggressive at plate, gets himself out too often; I’ve long wanted to see him move back behind plate, but realize that dream is dead – as it is, he’s a good defender with the prototypical arm for RF; physically mature and very strong; plus power upside; above-average speed, but slow starter – once he gets underway, you see his speed; much improved as hitter in 2012, chasing fewer bad balls; Williamson is interesting for a lot of reasons, not the least of which being his consistently strong power performances and improved plate discipline; if it all comes together in pro ball, Williamson is a five-tool player (four of which are decidedly above-average, the most questionable tool being his bat) with big league starter upside – he profiles very similarly to Adam Brett Walker as a hitter and athlete, but with a higher floor based on his added defensive value; has also shown promise on the mound over the years: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good sinker; good CB; shows CU; 6-4, 240 pounds

9.298 Shilo McCall (Piedra Vista HS, New Mexico)

151. OF Shilo McCall (Piedra Vista HS, New Mexico): good speed; good athlete; strong; above-average arm; 6-2, 215 pounds

14.448 Tyler Hollick (Chandler-Gilbert CC, Arizona)

79. Chandler-Gilbert (AZ) JC SO OF Tyler Hollick: plus speed; good CF range; I like his bat, others not sold; crazy production in 2012

24.748 Andrew Cain (UNC Wilmington)

29.898 Shayne Houck (Kutztown, Pennsylvania)

37. Kutztown (PA) SR 3B Shayne Houck: above-average hit tool; big raw power; can handle 3B and LF – stock goes way up if a team believes in him as a defender; 6-1, 200 pounds

1.20 RHP Chris Stratton (Mississippi State)

4. Mississippi State JR RHP Chris Stratton: 88-92 FB, 93-96 peak; velocity up in 2012 – more often 90-94, peaking at 95-96 consistently; leaves his FB up on occasion and it leads to trouble; holds velocity really well; really tough to square up on anything he throws, leaving him with reputation as a groundball machine; quality 77-80 CB; emerging 81-83 CU that is a good pitch now, could be plus in time; good 82-87 SL that flashes plus, but is hit or miss depending on start; solid cutter; added an effective two-seam FB; seen as four-pitch starter, but, depending on how you want to classify his fastball variations, he could eventually throw six legit pitches for strikes; above-average control and command; this is a comp that is decidedly not a comp, but a scout who saw Stratton said that, at his best, he reminded him of a righthanded version of Cliff Lee, mostly because his repertoire is so deep that he can use whatever pitch is working best on any given day; the fact that he throws two distinct breaking balls and has the fearlessness/understanding about how to use them is really impressive for an amateur prospect; 6-2, 200 pounds

2.84 RHP Martin Agosta (St. Mary’s)

23. St. Mary’s JR RHP Martin Agosta: 91-93 FB, 95-96 peak; sometimes sits 89-92 with 94 peak; 80-85 SL with upside, flashes plus – has also been called a cutter; good CB; above-average CU; plus overall command; gets better as game goes on; Agosta’s FB-SL-CU and command make him a good starting pitching prospect, and the chance he’ll continue to find ways to further differentiate his breaking ball – gaining some separation with his cutter and curve from his slider would be a start – make him especially intriguing; 6-1, 180 pounds

4.148 LHP Steven Okert (Oklahoma)

82. Oklahoma JR LHP Steven Okert: 88-91 FB, 92-94 peak; up to 94-97 out of bullpen; good SL; CU is better than often given credit; command comes and goes; reminds me a little bit of Chris Reed before Reed became last year’s “it” first round pick – could be a dominant reliever if everything breaks right, but also has the chance to continue starting at next level; 6-3, 220 pounds

5.178 LHP Ty Blach (Creighton)

254. Creighton JR LHP Ty Blach: 89-91 FB, 92-94 peak; good CU that has improved in last calendar year; attacks hitters on the inner-half and is a renowned strike thrower; low-80s SL flashes plus; good overall command; has the three pitches to start and above-average velocity from the left side, but lack of draft year dominance at the college level is a tad disconcerting; 6-1, 200 pounds

6.208 RHP Stephen Johnson (St. Edward’s, Texas)

64. St. Edward’s (TX) JR RHP Stephen Johnson: consistent 93-96 FB, 98 peak; has reportedly been as high as 101, but typically tops out upper-90s; 77-81 SL that has gotten harder (mid-80s) and better over the past year; hard 84-88 CU that is better when softer; great deception; closer upside; 6-4, 200 pounds

7.238 RHP EJ Encinosa (Miami)

131. Miami JR RHP EJ Encinosa: had him originally with a 87-91 FB with sink, 94 high school peak but hadn’t seen it in a while, instead peaking at 91-92; once committed to bullpen, velocity shot back up – now sits 94-95, and has hit 98 in 2012; no matter the velocity, the fastball remains an excellent pitch – very consistent plus-plus sink; plus low-80s SL; good, but inconsistent CU; reliever all the way (and likely not a closer), but a good one all the same; 6-4, 235 pounds

8.268 LHP Joe Kurrasch (Penn State)

315. Penn State rSO LHP Joe Kurrasch: as starter, sits 87-90, 92 peak; can get it a tick or two higher as reliever; average CU; has done a good job getting in better shape over past year, but doesn’t have the depth or quality of stuff to make much of a pro impact at this point; Cal transfer; 6-2, 200 pounds

16.508 RHP Ian Gardeck (Alabama)

256. Alabama JR RHP Ian Gardeck: 94-96 FB, 98-100 peak; plus to plus-plus mid- to upper-80s SL; bad control and command; mechanics need overhaul; stuff was down as he had an awful spring, but still showed enough flashes of two potential wipeout big league pitches that somebody will bite; 6-2, 225 pounds

23.718 LHP Drew Leenhouts (Northeastern)

270. Northeastern SR LHP Andrew Leenhouts: 87-88 FB, 90-91 peak; good CB; average CU that sometimes shows better; FB command needs work, and pitch is presently too straight; clean mechanics; 6-3, 200 pounds

26.808 LHP Mason McVay (Florida International)

103. Florida International rJR LHP Mason McVay: 87-91 FB post-injury as starter; solid potential with CB, plus upside; mechanics need cleaning up; control is an issue; peaked at 95-96 out of bullpen in fall 2011, so, if healthy, he can throw some smoke; Tommy John survivor; good coaching and good health will go a long way in determining his pro future, but his two potential plus pitches and size give him more upside than your typical double-digit round pick; 6-8, 240 pounds

31.958 RHP Jason Forjet (Florida Gulf Coast)

418. Florida Gulf Coast SR RHP Jason Forjet: upper-80s FB, low-90s peak; CB; CU; very good command; good athlete; 6-2, 200 pounds

33.1018 RHP Brandon Farley (Arkansas State)

393. Arkansas State SR RHP Brandon Farley: 89-92 FB, 94-95 peak; 6-2, 200 pounds

2012 MLB Draft Final Big Board

16 Jul 2012 9:52 PM / 1 Comment on 2012 MLB Draft Final Big Board

750 players rated and ranked. That’s 25 rounds worth of prospects to keep tabs on. Enjoy.

1. SS Carlos Correa (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico): plus-plus arm strength; positive reports on glove, above-average tools across board defensively; very fluid defender; 6-3, 190 pounds; tons of projection; plus athlete; needs at bats; plus power upside; plus speed; crazy bat speed, no problem with velocity; good approach; R/R

2. RHP Lucas Giolito (Harvard-Westlake HS, California): broke out by throwing 91-94 FB, peak 96-97, but found himself sitting 96-98 by late last summer; stays 93-96 like he’s just having a catch, hitting 97-98 with whispers of even higher (100); will take a little off the FB (92-94) at times to increase the movement; evolution of his breaking ball has been fun to watch: what started as a good 77-82 CB, slowly firmed up to steadier 80-82 and is now a plus-plus pitch at 82-84, hitting 86; he commands his CB exceptionally well for a prep arm; CB has come and gone from appearance to appearance, so there is still some inconsistency with the pitch that needs to be addressed; turned an average 82-84 straight CU into a much improved pitch (his arm action mimics his FB much better now) that he relies on heavily; consistently pitches low in the zone with all three pitches; some reports claim he throws two distinct breaking balls, but I’ve only personally seen him throw a CB, not a SL – confusion could stem from older reports of a 79-83 SL that flashes plus-plus, but I think that’s just misidentification of the CB; easy, repeatable delivery; broad shouldered and not afraid to throw inside to anybody; Giolito in a word: fearless; has been compared to Josh Johnson, a pitcher I once used as a comparison for Jameson Taillon – I was a big fan of Taillon then, and I am an even bigger fan of Giolito, the 2012 MLB Draft’s best prospect, now; 6-6, 230 pounds

3. San Francisco JR RHP Kyle Zimmer: 91-94 FB, 95-97 peak but can get it up to 99 when amped up; some of the best FB command of any amateur you’ll ever see; there is some talk of inconsistency with his fastball, but I’m not taking that bait: looking at start-by-start velocity shows that he most commonly sat 93-96, even late in games; he was down to the upper-80s in one start (92 peak), but rebounded to show 92-93 (95 peak) the next Friday; inconsistent but really good 81-86 SL with cutter action that could become plus pitch in time; 76-81 kCB that flashes above-average to plus, presently his strongest secondary offering; raw 78-86 CU that he used more frequently with each game, both picking and hitting his spots better as the year progressed – he often used the change early in counts to set hitters up as he is unafraid to pitch backwards when necessary; one nitpick: command of breaking stuff comes and goes; relatively new to pitching, so he has the benefits (and potential injury downside) of a fresh (or unready) arm – I can understand those who are worried that he has done too much too soon on the mound developmentally, but believe that with proper care in pro ball he’ll be fine; outstanding athlete with the chance for three (or four) plus pitches, an arm with limited mileage, and pinpoint fastball command all sounds like a potential first overall pick and frontline MLB starting pitcher; 6-4, 220 pounds

4. LSU SO RHP Kevin Gausman: 91-95 FB, most often 93-96, 97-99 peak; easy velocity; 88-91 two-seamer; 74-79 CB with upside that is really coming on, flashes plus already; better at 79-83 velocity, but still an inconsistent pitch; promising 82-86 CU with splitter action that flashes plus; has improved what was once an average at best 79-82 SL a lot, now flashes plus consistently (up to 83-87); throws more sliders than curves – SL is the pitch for swings and misses, curve works better for called strikes; 6-4, 185 pounds

5. OF Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia): 93-94 peak FB; plus-plus (80) speed; dead pull hitter; loves to swing; raw, but immensely talented; above-average to plus arm, closer to above-average now but accurate; crazy quick hands; bat speed, bat speed, bat speed; BJ Upton comp from an athletic standpoint makes sense; weirdest comp ever: Mike Schmidt, at least in terms of distance from plate and current swing; tremendous athlete; plus raw power; CF range if his instincts catch up, otherwise a potential Gold Glove winner in RF; 80 speed/60-70 arm/70 range

6. Mississippi State JR RHP Chris Stratton: 88-92 FB, 93-96 peak; velocity up in 2012 – more often 90-94, peaking at 95-96 consistently; leaves his FB up on occasion and it leads to trouble; holds velocity really well; really tough to square up on anything he throws, leaving him with reputation as a groundball machine; quality 77-80 CB; emerging 81-83 CU that is a good pitch now, could be plus in time; good 82-87 SL that flashes plus, but is hit or miss depending on start; solid cutter; added an effective two-seam FB; seen as four-pitch starter, but, depending on how you want to classify his fastball variations, he could eventually throw six legit pitches for strikes; above-average control and command; this is a comp that is decidedly not a comp, but a scout who saw Stratton said that, at his best, he reminded him of a righthanded version of Cliff Lee, mostly because his repertoire is so deep that he can use whatever pitch is working best on any given day; the fact that he throws two distinct breaking balls and has the fearlessness/understanding about how to use them is really impressive for an amateur prospect; 6-2, 200 pounds

7. Stanford JR RHP Mark Appel: sits 93-97 with four-seamer, hitting 99; holds velocity late: still at 94-95 in ninth innings; all FBs typically between 90-95; 88-92 two-seam FB with excellent sink; excellent FB command, but gets in trouble with too many hitter’s strikes – almost a little bit of a great control vs. good command situation; FB also gets in trouble at higher velocity when it flattens out and comes in too straight, especially when he forgets about two-seamer; sat consistently 96-98 with FB in summer 2011; easiest high velocity arm in class by a wide margin; rarely dips below 92; opening start 2012: 91-95 FB, 97 peak; above-average 82-84 SL that remains inconsistent; low-80s CU; for me, he’s at his best when he is 92-94 with plus sink and throwing lots of SL, sometimes gets too dependent on FB and overthrows it causing him to miss up in the zone; as the spring moved on, his SL improved considerably, though it lacks the sharpness and break of a true SL (it is more of a hybrid-breaking ball at this point) – now it is a more consistent, though still not reliable, 82-85 pitch with plus upside that can reach even higher (86-87 when he rears back); 80-85 circle CU with very good sink is currently an average big league pitch with plus upside – it is currently his best swing and miss pitch and my favorite of his offspeed offerings; can get in trouble showing too much of the ball in his delivery; no denying his raw stuff – taken individually, each pitch grades out as above-average to plus down the line, but the inability to throw all three pitches for strikes on any given day continues to be his downfall; downfall is, of course, relative – he still has the upside to be a frontline starter with the realistic floor of big league innings eater; 6-5, 205 pounds

8. Florida JR C Mike Zunino: legitimate plus raw power, but expected to be above-average in-game professionally as length in swing could cause some issues on high velocity arms; plus arm strength; good athlete for his height and weight; plus defensive tools behind plate, surprisingly mobile; calling card is his power, but underrated as a natural hitter; value comes on field, obviously, but added bonus of being a take charge leader is nice for the position; more than just a flashy strong arm, also really accurate; swing can get too long at times which could expose him against good breaking balls going forward; also gets bonus points for calling own pitches; I like Zunino a ton, so don’t take this comment as an attempt to hedge my bets, but rather an attempt to keep coverage fair and balanced: due to his inconsistent approach and reports of below-average physical conditioning, I think it is fair to have some serious doubt about Zunino as a sure-thing, franchise player, top five pick; 6-2, 220 pounds

9. OF Albert Almora (Mater Academy, Florida): plus arm strength; plus speed; shows all five tools; big upside at plate; lots of power, but swing needs retooling; almost plus range in CF; quick bat; aggressive base runner; some debate at start of spring about how good his tools really are, but he can play; should be above-average (with plus upside) in CF for a long time; great athlete, good instincts; above-average power with plus upside; above-average arm; average speed; hit tool is better than most HS guys, 70 upside with a great looking swing; so smart on bases, great at reading pitchers; really strong approach; 6-2, 180 pounds; R/R

10. LHP Max Fried (Harvard-Westlake HS, California): fastball velocity and sharpness of his breaking ball have been Fried’s big bugaboo’s all spring; generally speaking, he’ll sit comfortably in the upper-80s, but he has also been clocked at a steady 87-92 FB; his most recent outing found him at 92-95; long story short: getting a “true” idea of Fried’s current velocity is a fool’s errand – projecting where he’ll be once he starts pitching every fifth day with professional coaching is how pro scouting staff’s make their money; with his delivery, build, and flashes of present velocity, it is easy to imagine him sitting 88-93 and occasionally hitting 95 (i.e. Cole Hamels velocity); FB has good movement and natural sink at any velocity; really good 71-78 CB with plus upside that he leans on heavily; like FB, curve comes in at a wide range of velocities, but is most often in the harder 74-79 range; some (like me) think he might actually intentionally mix up his curves – a softer, loopier one in the lower-70s and the sharper, swing and miss plus one in the upper-70s; his best curves have gorgeous shape and huge break; the breaker can be inconsistent, but flashes plus-plus; good emerging 78-84 CU that also flashes plus; besides fluctuating velocity, there is some concern about his command of offspeed stuff and difficulty repeating his mechanics – I think the mechanical issues will work themselves out (elite athleticism will do that), but, if not, good coaching should get him there; great athlete with a plus hit tool and legit raw power; great pickoff move and a plus defender; this is the time of year for overly enthusiastic hyperbolic commentary, so let’s not fight it: Fried has the potential for three plus pitches, is arguably the best athlete/hitter in this year’s prep pitching class, and has the frame, understanding of the game, and drive to become a legitimate big league number one; 6-4, 175 pounds

11. RHP Lance McCullers (Jesuit HS, Florida): once sat 91-94 FB, peak 97-98, but now lives in the mid- to upper-90s (95-97 and only falls back to 92-94 as needed and has been rumored to hit 100; when he sits low- to mid-90s, keeps the ball down and hits his spots, he’s tough to beat; anyway you want to parse the radar readings, his fastball velocity ranks among the easiest you’ll see out of a prep arm; holds velocity really well, never dips below 90-91 with fastball; got a deserved bad reputation for throwing too many “bad” (i.e. hittable) strikes, especially with the fastball, but has improved a great deal with his command throughout the spring, improvements must still be made in this area, but he’s much better; shows an above-average to plus 83-87 SL (have heard unconfirmed rumors this pitch has hit 91), but more consistent and better long-term offspeed pitch is good 79-86 kCB (best at 80-82) that flashes plus; commands CB really well; plus-plus upside with CB; emerging CU that is now very good and surprisingly consistent 82-88 pitch; I believe he has plus upside with CU, but could still be in minority; I also think the Kyle Drabek comp makes sense in a lot of ways (mostly draft positioning, stature, two-way status, and spike curveball), but prefer McCullers breaking ball as a more consistently reliable plus secondary offering; command and mechanics were the biggest issues coming into the year, and it is fair to say that McCullers has answered both multiple times over this spring; no questions about his athleticism, which leads me to believe any existing issues about his mechanics will be ironed out in time; with two plus pitches already (FB and kCB) and a potential third above-average or better offering (CU), McCullers is a first round arm and potential big league starting pitcher; 6-2, 200 pounds

12. OF David Dahl (Oak Mountain HS, Alabama): good speed; plus arm strength, clocked at 95 from outfield; strong defender; aggressive on base paths; uses whole field; very mature hitter; biggest question for me is power upside long-term; Colby Rasmus comp; enough instincts for CF; update: above-average speed; above-average arm; 6-2, 190 pounds; L/R

13. C Stryker Trahan (Acadiana HS, Louisiana): plus hit tool; honest above-average speed; plus bat speed; good arm; swing is textbook; lets ball travel deep, but quick hands allow it; athletic behind dish; shows plus raw power; most impressed by his power to all fields; if Blake Swihart could run, he’d be Trahan – also think the Wil Myers comps are warranted; the big question is all about his defensive future, but I think he’s athletic enough to be given the chance to work with pro coaches and get everyday reps; 6-1, 220 pounds

14. SS CJ Hinojosa (Klein Collins HS, Texas): power upside is immense, due mostly to crazy bat speed (swing is level); steady defender at short with tools to be even better; really like his quick bat, but swing can get out of whack at times; impressive arm strength; think he’ll stick up the middle pretty easily; 5-11, 185 pounds

15. OF Courtney Hawkins (Mary Carroll HS, Texas): very muscular build; good speed; strong arm; more present power than majority of class; plus raw power; lots of swing and miss and some pitch recognition issues; average or better speed; RF professionally; has improved a great deal across the board in last calendar year, especially on defense; good instincts in CF, but might not be quick enough; plus arm; speed, power, and arm will take him far; reminds me so much of Adam Jones it’s scary; 6-2, 215 pounds; R/R

16. 3B Trey Williams (Valencia HS, California): big hit tool; potential plus to plus-plus raw power; advanced idea of how to hit, e.g. big opposite field power threat; strong arm often categorized as plus; potential star defensively at third base; great reactions and instincts; outstanding athlete; plus bat speed; plus hit tool; slightly above-average speed; very strong; has that special sound; pitch recognition to be monitored; super quick bat, solid approach: very patient, lightning in wrists; swing needs some work, but what is there is a fine building block; strong arm, steady defender; below-average speed, but quick feet and reactions at third; should be an average defender at worst with much more upside than that; big-time raw power, personally I’m a believer; 6-2, 210 pounds; R/R

17. RHP Zach Eflin (Hagerty HS, Florida): 89-91 FB, 92-93 peak; excellent command; inconsistent 74-80 CB; good 78-83 CU that flashes plus; spring 2012 update: 90-95 FB; 76-80 kCB that has some SL action and above-average upside; solid 83-84 CU that sinks; either secondary could be plus on any given day; 6-5, 200 pounds; pretty steady 92-94 as year has gone on; 89-93 at later date, 95 peak; 77-83 kCB better when harder; 79-83 plus CU; 90-95 FB with plus life; CU has plus upside; velocity down of late, 89-91; 77-78 CB; when everything is working, there are few prep arms with who look this good, but there’s some concern about Eflin’s ability to consistently harness his stuff all at once

18. Duke JR RHP Marcus Stroman: 90-93 FB, 95-98 peak; also has sat at higher velocities all game, consistently at 93-97 in some starts; rumors of even higher peaks (99-100); tight plus 79-85 SL with plus command, peaking at 86-87; when ahead in count, SL is deadly; slowly rolled out 82-84 CU in 2012, pitch improved greatly as season progressed – most call it above-average, some a grade higher; 87-91 cutter; important to remember that he is relatively new to pitching full-time, so his arm is fresh; there is some concern about lefthanders getting too good a look at him due to his arm slot, but righties struggle against him mightily; when he isn’t striking guys out, he’s getting ground balls; holds velocity deep into starts despite 5-9, 180 pound frame

19. Texas A&M JR RHP Michael Wacha: big velocity jump during college tenure – once peaked only as high as 92, but now regularly sits 90-95 FB, hitting 96-97; like many young arms, can get himself in trouble when he overthrows fastball and it begins to straighten out; somewhat similar to Kyle Zimmer in the way he relied on excellent fastball command before seeing a velocity spike; holds velocity well, very rarely dipping below 90; have heard he’ll throw his legitimate plus to plus-plus CU with two distinct grips: one at 82-85 with the circle change grip, the other more of an upper-70s straight change; either way, the CU should be a weapon from day one on; occasional 81-85 SL with cutter action; also will go with a very rare upper-70s CB that could be the breaking pitch he’ll be asked to run with as a pro; neither breaking ball is pro-ready, but both have flashed enough that it is easy to imagine a pro staff believing it can coach him up; natural comparison is Ryan Madson, especially if Wacha never develops a consistent third pitch and is used out of the bullpen; as a starter, I think there are some similarities in terms of stuff when you compare him to Braves prospect Julio Teheran; 6-6, 200 pounds

20. 3B Tanner Rahier (Palm Desert HS, California): plus arm strength; accurate arm; quick bat; good power; good fielder with well above-average range; intriguing raw power, above-average for me; not toolsy, but gets it done; ball jumps off bat, special sound; likely a 3B as a pro; impressive pitch recognition; Evan Longoria comp; only question for me is power upside, hit tool is outstanding; some believe he’ll stick at SS, Gold Glove upside at 3B; 6-2, 205 pounds; R/R

21. Clemson JR 3B Richie Shaffer: really good defender at first, but more average on a good day at third; plus raw power to all fields; plus raw arm strength (has hit 94 off mound), above-average in total after accuracy is factored in; made outstanding recovery from broken hamate bone, minimal power loss; good athlete; average runner; not entirely convinced he’s a third baseman forever, but believe he can play either 3B or a corner OF spot through his first big league (six year) contract; 6-3, 200 pounds

22. 3B Joey Gallo (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada): plus raw power from left side; good athlete; plus arm; no problem against quality arms, has hit both high velocity and big league quality breaking balls; similar to Richie Shaffer defensively – both have plus arms and enough athleticism to play third base for a bit before transitioning to right field; some prefer him on mound (88-93 FB; 94-98 peak with some of the easiest velocity of any prep in recent memory; good 74-76 CB; mid-80s CU; 77-81 SL needs work), but his kind of power is hard to pass up; not a perfect comp, but there’s some Kris Bryant to his game; really want to move him up over Richie Shaffer for the top spot, and for some organizations I think he’s worth the risk, but the relative safety of the college bat pushes Shaffer just ahead; 6-5, 220 pounds; L/R

23. Georgia Southern JR OF Victor Roache: raw, but talented; plus athlete; plus raw power; a hair over average speed; average arm; willing to wait for his pitch and drive it; has had his swing doubted at every level, but has hit everywhere he’s been; much will be known about Roache’s medicals based on his draft position as his broken wrist is a concern going forward – if he goes on the first day, as expected, we can assume everything checked out more or less fine, but if he falls then the question about his long-term prognosis will be out there; his final position on this board is subject to change pending any news on his health, but Roache’s impact bat is one of the draft’s most overscrutinized and thus, in my opinion, underrated bright spots; 6-1, 225 pounds

24. 3B Rio Ruiz (Bishop Amat HS, California): very strong hands; plus arm; very quick bat; no problem with velocity; big league hitter; popular Eric Chavez comp that makes sense; 6-2, 200 pounds; L/R; good athlete; really intrigued by bat; patient

25. 3B Addison Russell (Pace HS, Florida): good athlete; consistent hard contact; plus defensive tools; excellent range; great bat speed; too aggressive at times, but has worked hard to improve approach; plus arm; really good athlete; has worked hard to put on muscle, looked like a corner infielder all the way; now they say he is athletic enough to stick up middle again though he still looks like a future 3B to me; very quick bat; 6-1, was up to 215 pounds; down to 185 now; above-average speed; huge raw power; questionable hit tool; R/R

26. 3B Corey Seager (Northwest Cabarrus HS, North Carolina): good athlete; strong arm; great feel on defense, could be star at third; line drive machine; swing holds back power upside for now, but if he grows into some power, watch out; already more pop than his brother; patient approach; 55 speed; 6-3, 200 pounds; L/R; should settle into average speed

27. Stony Brook JR OF Travis Jankowski: plus speed; great CF range; average at best arm; below-average present power, but I think there’s more pop coming; potential plus hit tool; great athlete; really good approach, especially with two strikes; awesome instincts, great first step; has struggled some on Friday nights, much better against lefthanded pitchers; I hate piling on with the obvious comp, but I think there are lots of similarities between Jankowski and the college version of Jacoby Ellsbury – to take it a step further, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a power spike similar to Ellsbury’s, though perhaps not quite as drastic, once Jankowski hits pro ball; 6-1, 190 pounds

28. RHP Walker Buehler (Henry Clay HS, Kentucky): classic case of a plus pitchability arm who one day wakes up to big league quality stuff; his upper-80s FB (91-92 peak) has jumped to a steady 90-94, peaking 95-96; best offsped pitch is an above-average 76-78 CB with plus upside, one of the best of its kind in the class – even more effective when he throws it a little harder (78-82); third pitch is a straight CU with tumble that at times is his best offering; hardly going out on a limb, but Buehler is one of my favorite prep arms in this year’s class: smarts, three big league pitches, and repeatable mechanics all add up to a potential quality big league starter; 6-1, 165 pounds

29. Arkansas SO RHP Nolan Sanburn: 90-93 FB, 94-98 peak; sitting 94-97 last fall; 92-96 out of bullpen, peaking at 98-99; flashes plus 81-85 SL; improved 81-82 CU; good athlete; good delivery; strong; above-average 76-79 CB that I really like, can get up to low-80s; leans on FB and rightfully so; fresh arm who could/should be tried as a starter in the pros, but will likely be kept in the bullpen (have heard a Daniel Bard comp thrown his way) as a potential fast-rising prospect; 6-0, 190 pounds

30. LHP Hunter Virant (Camarillo HS, California): like Max Fried, fastball sits mostly upper-80s (87-89, later in spring 88-91), but ranges from 86-92, 93-94 peak with good natural sink; plus FB command; loads of FB movement; rapidly improving 75-80 CU with great arm action; excellent pitch with FB arm action, good deception, plus command, and above-average downward movement; inconsistent 77-81 SL; good 70-76 CB that is better when thrown harder, gets in trouble when he aims it; CB has plus upside and is already an above-average, if inconsistent, pitch; relatively new to pitching, but shows a great deal of early aptitude for it; lots of upside in terms of body and lack of time on mound developing bad habits; will battle Kyle Twomey for top spot on what seems like an annual list of projectable California prep lefthanders; 6-3, 180 pounds

31. RHP Chase DeJong (Wilson HS, California): 87-89 FB, 90-91 peak; good to plus 74-79 CB; good to plus 82-84 CU; breaking ball also identified as 76-78 SL with late break; good sink on FB; good command; 6-4, 190 pounds; late spring 2012 update: 89-92 FB, 94 peak; 75-77 CB; 83-84 CU

32. RHP Mitch Brown (Rochester County HS, Minnesota): 88-92 FB, 93-95 peak; plus 79-84 SL; 87-88 cutter; good CU; occasional 75-77 CB, good pitch; good command; 6-1, 210 pounds; prep version of Kyle Zimmer

33. LHP Matthew Smoral (Solon HS, Ohio): 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak – up to 95-96; 77-84 SL that is really good at times, better when firmer; raw 82-84 straight CU; control comes and goes; foot injury doesn’t appear to be a long-term concern, so Smoral’s draft stock is unchanged for me; 6-8, 225 pounds

34. Missouri State JR RHP Pierce Johnson: 90-94 FB, 96 peak; FB velocity has steadily increased from summer 2011 (93-94 peak) to fall ball (up to 97 then) to this past season (settled in at low-90s, peaking 95-96); has learned to hold his velocity much better, still hitting 94 late in games; biggest downside of FB is inconsistent command; plus 80-84 breaking ball that is closer to CB than SL; average 86-87 SL with cutter action; shows a 80-82 CU that he rarely uses, but has plus upside; potential above-average big league starter if he stays healthy; 6-3, 180 pounds

35. Vanderbilt JR LHP Sam Selman: 89-93 FB, 95-97 peak; 12-6 CB from high school that couldn’t be controlled in college and has now morphed into a 79-82 SL that flashes plus; promising low-80s CU, but must improve arm action unless he wants professional hitters to know what pitch is coming; sat 91-94 FB, 97 peak last summer, so he has maintained his velocity jump over time; was still showing promising SL that will come and go as of late spring; his biggest issue is command; he also tires easily and loses velocity quickly over the course of a start; those negatives aside, it is easy to see why Selman should go high this June: his relative inexperience on the mound gives hope to teams looking to mold a raw talent in need of strong pro coaching and conditioning but already equipped with three potential above-average pitches and ample big game experience; 6-3, 185 pounds

36. Oklahoma State JR LHP Andrew Heaney: 87-92 FB, 93-94 peak; fastball plays up due to command; will sit upper-80s late in games; good CB that he uses very cleverly – it comes in a variety of speeds (mid- to upper-70s, mostly) and shapes, sometimes looking like a true curve, sometimes appearing closer to a slider, and occasionally going in-between with a hybrid look; good 76-81 CU that flashes plus, but is too often left up in the zone and hittable; will cut, sink, and run his fastball, but loses command in these situations – his 78-82 cutter/slider does have above-average upside and could be an asset if he can gain greater command of it; great overall pitchability; varies arm slots like Josh Spence; 6-2, 175 pounds

37. Purdue JR C Kevin Plawecki: tremendous approach, as good as any hitter in this year’s college class; still a raw defender, but above-average tools are there; average arm, but it plays up due to much improved footwork and a quick release; good athlete; above-average hit tool; hits consistent line drives tony and makes a ton of contact; like the power, but others aren’t solid his swing will allow for much more than gap power – I think there’s 20 homer upside here; there was some question heading into the year, but will definitely stick behind plate; uses the whole field well as a hitter; high marks for all things intangible; given the choice between Zunino in the first or Plawecki later, I’d wait it out and grab Purdue’s backstop who might have more long-term upside; 6-2, 210 pounds

38. Arkansas JR 3B Matt Reynolds: line drive machine who lacks present strength and swing plane for big power, but makes up for it with consistent hard contact all over the field; above-average speed that plays up on bases; outstanding defender with a strong arm and enough athletic ability to play up the middle at times; could even be tried at catcher, though I think a more likely conversion would be to 2B – could even be tried as an everyday SS if a team is feeling especially frisky; I think a player in-between Kyle Seager and Chase Headley is a realistic ceiling for Reynolds – some speed, some pop, but lots of value tied up in defense and on-base ability; 6-1, 200 pounds

39. Stanford JR 3B Stephen Piscotty: gap power, but could be more with added strength; often too aggressive for his own good, but compensates by showing great plate coverage; impressive ability to use the whole field; average speed; good arm; above-average hit tool that I wasn’t sold on to start the year, but can now admit is one of the college class’ best – he’s really fun to watch hit; good enough defender at third to at least get a chance to start there in pro ball, but less likely to stick there long-term than Richie Shaffer – RF makes for a fine backup plan in the event a switch is necessary; like the hit tool, his power is better than I first gave him credit for – the gap power should give way to more over the fence pop as he focuses 100% on hitting professionally; not to keep repeating myself, but Piscotty’s bat has really impressed me more than I expected this year – he has a very quiet swing, mature approach, and is capable of hitting any pitch in any count, including pitchers’ pitches; above-average athlete; have personally compared him to James Darnell in the past, but should have higher ceiling; 6-3, 215 pounds

40. 3B Carson Kelly (Westview HS, Oregon): 88-92 FB; plus 78-82 CU with fade; 73-80 CB; low-80s SL with plus upside; can really swing the bat; plus bat speed; no problem with high velocity arms; plus arm; strong; agile; good approach; above-average defensive tools; can’t decide on his pro position, lean towards 3B; slow, but not glacial; 6-2, 210 pounds; R/R

41. Rice JR RHP JT Chargois: 90-94 FB; easy 95-96 peak but can also get it up to 98 with a little more effort; plus 78-83 CB; average 79-81 CU flashes plus; also shows 85-87 SL, but uses it almost exclusively as a chase pitch in the dirt; really tough to pick up ball out of his hand due to nasty angle in delivery; between deception, velocity, movement, and command, Chargois’ fastball is a true plus to plus-plus pitch; as a two-way prospect – I liked him as a hitter more his freshman season – his arm is fresh and his above-average athleticism goes without saying; big question is command of offspeed stuff; despite the overwhelming consensus that he’s a reliever only in the pros, I think he has three pitches to start if his arm action is deemed acceptable by a pro team, something that has a higher chance of happening that he gets credit for when you factor in his relative newness to pitching; has arguably one of the draft’s highest floors (big league setup guy) with the chance for more (elite closer/above-average big league starting pitcher); 6-3, 200 pounds

42. 3B Daniel Robertson (Upland HS, California): potential plus defender, but more in the steady style and not so spectacular; plus arm; big hit tool; has raw power, but doesn’t know how to use it just yet; does show as much opposite field power as any high school hitter in recent memory; 6-1, 185 pounds; R/R

43. Georgia Southern JR RHP Chris Beck: 87-93 FB, 95-97 peak; FB velocity was way down in 2012 (88-92, 93 peak) and far too straight a pitch to fool pro bats; 80-86 cutter-like SL with plus upside, has hit upwards of 90, but was above-average at best throughout much of 2012 season; 80-84 straight CU with plus upside; command needs tightening; Dr. Jekyll is a first round pick, but Mr. Hyde barely warrants top ten round consideration – a smart team will figure out what they are getting in advance (or at least that’s the idea…), but outsiders like me can only guess; 6-3, 220 pounds

44. Monmouth JR RHP Pat Light: first gained acclaim as a guy who threw a 89-91 FB that moved, but the progression that led to his current peak velocity of 94-97 helped his draft stock skyrocket; at his best he still sits low-90s (94-95 peak), but will lose velocity early; good 77-83 SL that flashes plus; solid 79-81 splitter/CU; similar to Chris Beck in that it is hard to predict what version you’ll get – the three-pitch pitcher with the plus fastball has clear big league upside or the pitcher who comes with the risk of unexplained ups and downs in terms of stuff; 6-6, 210 pounds

45. St. Mary’s JR RHP Martin Agosta: 91-93 FB, 95-96 peak; sometimes sits 89-92 with 94 peak; 80-85 SL with upside, flashes plus – has also been called a cutter; good CB; above-average CU; plus overall command; gets better as game goes on; Agosta’s FB-SL-CU and command make him a good starting pitching prospect, and the chance he’ll continue to find ways to further differentiate his breaking ball – gaining some separation with his cutter and curve from his slider would be a start – make him especially intriguing; 6-1, 180 pounds

46. LHP Kyle Twomey (El Dorado HS, California): 86-90 FB, 91-92 peak; good CU that I like a lot, but admit needs work; good 71-76 CB, sometimes slower at 69-71; 85 cutter; good deception in delivery; crafty and projectable, Twomey is one of the draft’s highest upside arms; 6-4, 170 pounds

47. RHP Ty Buttrey (Providence HS, North Carolina): once sat 87-91 FB hitting 92, but pumped up to consistent 90-94, hitting 95-96 by early spring; two-seam FB stays 90-92 – pitch is a certifiable bat breaker; two-seam, four-seam, and cut (87-89) FBs all move a ton, making Buttrey one of this class’ premier groundball pitchers; emerging CU that he still doesn’t fully believe in, but pitch improved significantly in last six months – now sits 81-85 with plus upside (arm action is there), but it will take time and practice; 76-79 kCB with above-average upside that he’ll sometimes throw harder (low-80s), pretty impressive pitch when the velocity is up but remains inconsistent pitch to pitch; good athlete; some concern about late spring velocity loss (dipped back down to last summer’s upper-80s, 90-91 peak) and advanced age for his class; when a team saw Buttrey will determine how high he goes – on his best day, he’s a clear first day talent; when his fastball is slower and flatter, he’s nothing special; 6-5, 210 pounds

48. RHP Trey Killian (Mountain Home HS, Arkansas): 86-91 FB, 92-93 peak; 72-76 CB with plus upside; 76-82 SL; both breaking balls have firmed up and are now on higher range, both are legit future average or better pitches; 79-81 CU; delivery needs tweaking; impressive control for a young arm; strong present stuff and still easy to dream on more; 6-4, 180 pounds

49. RHP Nick Travieso (Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida): 90-94 FB, 96-97 peak with rumors as high as 99; FB moves a ton, especially when he takes some off (90-92), so it is really hard to square up on; works low in zone with FB; command is iffy, too many hittable strikes; really encouraged by quick progression of good 80-87 SL that has plus upside; for being relatively new to throwing anything but a fastball, he commands his SL really well; new 82 CU – have also heard he’ll throw a hard CU (87-88) with decent tumble, but haven’t seen it yet; whatever you think of the CU, it is such a raw offering that it could go in any number of ways, positively or negatively; has been tagged with the “throws like a reliever” stigma, but I don’t see it; there are enough questions about Travieso (starter or reliever, improved yet still very inconsistent slider, no firsthand look by majority of scouts that says much on whether or not his nascent change will work against live bats) that I’d understand teams that move him off their day one draft boards, but arm strength and the ability to spin a breaking ball (at least some of the time) are worth investing some money in; 6-3, 215 pounds

50. RHP Kieran Lovegrove (Mission Viejo HS, California): 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; 79-81 CU, up to 82-84 in recent viewings – have heard unconfirmed rumblings that he favors the splitter grip for his change; true plus low-80s SL (80-85) that is more of a big breaker than a sharp breaker, but an excellent potential second pitch either way; great athlete; good deception in delivery; blessed with lots of arm strength, so could see velocity numbers jump as he fills out; maintains velocity well; if you take the approach that the draft is more than simply adding talent, but also a means of hiring new employees to represent your multi-million dollar brand, then Lovegrove is an ideal fit – he’s plenty talented, and, more importantly, projectable enough to justify an early pick, and, while I’m not typically the guy heading up the intangibles (!) bandwagon, he’s exactly the kind of young man you feel good about bringing into your organization; 6-4, 180 pounds

51. RHP Ty Hensley (Santa Fe HS, Oklahoma): 88-93 FB, 94-95 peak; velocity has been up at times, sitting 92-95, peaking 97-98; good FB command; really good 74-79 CB with plus upside that he relies on heavily; emerging 79-82 CU; 84-86 SL that he has difficult commanding; strong hitter; two potential plus pitches and a big league frame are a great start, but he’ll have to continue developing a third pitch, likely his nascent change, going forward; as is, he has first day stuff; 6-5, 220 pounds

52. RHP Walker Weickel (Olympia HS, Florida): last year sat 89-91 FB with sink, 92 peak; by the summer of 2011, his stock was up and he was throwing 90-93, 94-95 peak FB; by mid-summer he was back 89-93 FB; has bounced between low (87-90) and high (92-95) all spring, most recently on the low side; good FB command; multiple theories about his fluctuating velocity include fatigue, early peaking arm from age standpoint, and too much emphasis placed on developing cutter, so pro teams will have to have done their homework before taking a chance; good to plus 70-76 CB, but still inconsistent especially when he overthrows it; in the minority in thinking his CB is best when thrown slower at 69-71, but I understand the concerns about how a pitch like that will hold up against pro hitters; good deception in delivery; if you’re buying Weickel, and I am, you’re buying an above-average fastball, above-average curve, and an above-average change, all tied together with a deceptive delivery, plus makeup, and excellent command across the board; 6-6, 200 pounds

53. Arizona State JR SS Deven Marrero: advanced defender with plus tools (great range, soft hands, plus arm); average power potential, gap power at present; average speed, plays up a bit in game; he’d also work well at 2B or 3B, though a position switch is not necessary; despite the down year, Marrero has impressed in by hitting a variety of stuff – i.e. he’s not struggling for lack of being able to hit a good fastball or misidentifying breaking balls; above-average hit tool; even though I’ve never been top-five pick high on Marrero as a prospect, it bears mentioning that he’s a ballplayer with no obvious below-average tool and a worthy first round pick – closer to the back than the front, but still worth a first round grade; interesting information from watching him/parsing the stats: he absolutely kills lefties, but struggles against righties; still living off his impressive freshman season to some extent, but scouts remain high on him as somebody who will settle in as one of the top 5-8 defenders at shortstop in the game while hitting better with wood than what he showed in college – his ceiling may not be as an All-Star caliber player, but he could still be a first-division starter; 6-1, 195 pounds

54. Cal Poly JR OF Mitch Haniger: plus defensive upside in RF, can hang in center despite average at best speed; very strong arm; above-average raw power, 20+ HR upside; strong; average at best hit tool yet still better than expected (at least by me) coming into the year; good athlete; improved approach in 2012 as he has matured a great deal as a hitter throughout his college career; 6-2, 215 pounds

55. 3B Mitch Nay (Hamilton HS, Arizona): impressive bat; questionable defender, could wind up in RF; super strong arm; easy to love his bat speed; above-average power upside; slow; 6-3, 200 pounds

56. 3B David Thompson (Westminster Christian HS, Florida): huge power; good approach; really quick bat; quick enough for LF, but has chance to stick at third; strong arm befitting a QB; long swing

57. OF Lewis Brinson (Coral Springs HS, Florida): plus (70) to plus-plus speed; strong arm; great athlete; huge upside; big (60-65) raw power; very raw; great athlete; reminds me of Austin Wilson as a prep player but with the ability to play CF, though he could be plus RF; plus arm or better, depending on his release; Florida commitment; more of a baseball player than other toolsy prospects; quick bat; pull power; love his defense; Phillies kind of player; 6-4, 185 pounds

58. OF Jameis Winston (Hueytown HS, Alabama): plus arm strength; plus-plus athlete; plus speed; plus CF range; power upside remains to be seen; can really hit; super quick bat; others really like his power; think scouts got discouraged about his baseball future once it was clear he was going the football route at Florida State, but his baseball tools are outstanding; 6-4, 200 pounds; S/R

59. OF Nick Williams (Galveston Ball HS, Texas): plus athlete; advanced feel for hitting; patient approach; great athlete; impressive speed; long strider; average arm; see a lot of Dom Brown in his game, for better or worse; I’m stubbornly sticking with Williams as an elite prospect because the tools he showed before this spring’s struggles are still there; 6-3, 200 pounds; L/L

60. RHP Tyler Gonzalez (Madison HS, Texas): 87-93, 94-96 peak FB; 80-89 SL with plus upside that is already a really good pitch; on the upper end of those velocity ranges when at his sharpest; 75-79 CB; holds velocity really well; very good athlete; very rare 82-83 CU; 87 cutter; 6-2, 175 pounds

61. OF Anthony Alford (Petal HS, Mississippi): above-average power upside; plus-plus athlete; plus arm; can play any outfield spot, but could be great in corner (LF); above-average to plus (70) speed; strong; 6-2, 220 pounds

62. RHP Grayson Long (Barbers Hill HS, Texas): 88-91 FB, 93 peak; good 80 CU; 75-77 CB with upside; SL with plus upside, but still a really inconsistent pitch; delivery ready for the pros; similar prospect to Walker Weickel in many ways, for better or worse; love his FB – command and movement make it a plus pitch even without big present velocity; has fallen off in the eyes of many this spring, but the long-term value is still very high; 6-6, 190 pounds

63. SS Gavin Cecchini (Barbe HS, Louisiana): good athlete; good speed; solid defender; more power than you’d expect, at least average as a pro; should be able to stick at shortstop, but more steady than spectacular there; above-average arm; plus hit tool; like his hit tool, not sure on the rest; I think he’ll have to move off SS, but we’ll see

64. Virginia JR 2B Stephen Bruno: good defender with plus range and plus arm – could be good enough to play shortstop professionally, though that’s currently the minority opinion; I’m in said minority, but put him with the 2B group (he could be a plus defender with more reps at 3B, by the way) to hedge my bets; above-average speed; plenty of pop; Bruno is one of my favorite players from this year’s college class – he’s a natural born hitter with emerging power and a good idea of the strike zone who rarely gets cheated during an at bat; if he doesn’t settle in as an everyday player anywhere, he has the high floor of a quality big league utility infielder; 5-9, 165 pounds

65. SS Adrian Marin (Gulliver Prep HS, Florida): plus arm strength; confirmed plus speed; needs to add some bulk; steady defender who should stick at SS, could be very good at 2B; no problems with velocity; gap power; has “it” whatever that is; 6-0, 170 pounds

66. Florida JR SS Nolan Fontana: average to above-average speed; good defender who manages to get by without elite defensive tools – positioning and instincts go a long way; average hit tool; little power, but enough pop to run into one from time to time – big improvement in this area in 2012; highlight of his game is without a doubt his great approach; Fontana never takes off an at bat, always working deep counts and being sure to swing at pitches he knows he can handle and/or waste; more physical strength than given credit for; should have a long professional career in some capacity, whether it is as a starting middle infielder or an above-average utility player; as much as I like Fontana (and I really, really like Fontana), I have to pass along the comp I heard a scout who saw him play a lot this year throw on him: former first round pick Russ Adams, a similarly polished college shortstop who didn’t have enough punch to make a meaningful pro impact; 5-11, 185 pounds

67. RHP Paul Blackburn (Heritage HS, California): 89-91 FB, 92 peak; really, really good 75-78 CB; 77-78 CU with plus upside; 6-2, 180 pounds; good command; good control; repeats mechanics well

68. RHP Kevin McCanna (The Woodlands HS, Texas): 87-89 FB, 91 peak; new to pitching, catcher convert; now sits 89-92, 94 peak FB; potential plus 82-84 CU that moves like a splitter (but isn’t, apparently) that is already a good pitch; 75-78 CB with plus upside; 75 straight CU with less tumble but good arm action; pitchability righthander with above-average stuff; plus command; 6-1, 185 pounds

69. RHP Shane Watson (Lakewood HS, California): 88-91 FB with sink, 92-93 peak; good 74-78 CB; definitely seen a good 76-80 SL; has shown 95-96 peak in spring 2012, sitting 91-93 FB; plus 78-80 CB; very consistent CB; everything down in zone; no real CU to speak of; 6-4, 200 pounds; spring 2012 UPDATE: 89-92 FB, 94 peak; above-average 75-76 CB; raw 78-81 CU; also rumors of 82 very good CB

70. RHP Carson Fulmer (All Saints Academy HS, Florida): 93-95 peak FB, sits 91-92 with good sink; 77-82 chase SL; really good 80-86 CU with sink that he has recently firmed up; really good FB command; 78-81 CB; could stand to tone down delivery; sits 92-94 in short bursts; holds velocity late; spring 2012 update: 89-92 FB, 93 peak; up to 90-94, 96 peak; 78-80 CU; good 75-78 CB; 6-1, 190 pounds; 6-1, 190 pounds; at his best: 94-96 FB, two plus offspeed pitches

71. RHP Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, Georgia): 88-92 FB, 94 peak; really good but inconsistent 73-77 CB; average 81-84 SL; will show a low-80s CU that is well beyond its years; have heard late summer 95-96 peak; later on cranked it to 97-98; 90-94 FB, but loses it late in games and sits 89-91; FB moves a ton, even up to 93-94; some deception in delivery; 80 CB; CU and CB both have plus upside, some have 81-83 CB as plus already; 6-2, 200 pounds; update: 90-93, 94 peak; flashed good 73-77 CB that has flashed plus in past; interesting 81-85 CU; good athlete; April: 91-94 FB, 96 peak; CU; May: 91-94 FB, 96 peak; 75-78 CB that flashes above-average; above-average upside with 85-87 CU

72. TCU JR C Josh Elander: plus power potential; above-average arm strength but it plays up even more due to quick release; footwork behind plate still needs work; above-average foot speed; physically mature and very strong; one of the best overall tool sets of any college prospect, but Elander is no different from many other prospects of this archetype – with great tools often comes a high degree of rawness; I believe he’ll have no problems sticking behind the plate, and think he has a chance to be a starting caliber catcher; could follow the Eli Marrero career path if his defense continues to lag behind his bat; 6-0, 205 pounds

73. C Wyatt Mathisen (Calallen HS, Texas): strong and accurate arm; good defensive tools, but needs reps; really nice patient approach; quick bat; slightly below-average speed, but good for catcher; 6-1, 210 pounds

74. C Clint Coulter (Union HS, Washington): good defensive tools, but a little stiff behind plate; may or may not stick at catcher long-term, but I’m a believer; little Jeff Bagwell in his crouch and swing setup; good athlete; plus arm, but needs to polish up footwork; pro body; loud contact; strong; big league caliber defensive tools for me, not all agree; above-average arm; really interesting power; fun player to watch who impacts the game in a multitude of ways; 6-3, 220 pounds

75. 1B Nathan Mikolas (Bradford HS, Wisconsin): strong hit tool; above-average power upside; good athlete; really smart young hitter; quick bat; can hit to all fields; questionable defender and athlete; best position is batter’s box; has also played some OF; 6-2, 200 pounds

76. RHP Justin Garza (Bonita HS, California): 89-92 FB, 94 peak; FB sits closer to peak than sitting velocity, i.e. he throws hard; 74-77 CB; really good 75-80 SL; two breaking balls might be one pitch, I’m going SL but others say CB; 76-78 CU; spring 2012 update: above-average 78-81 SL; usable 80-81 CU; update: 90-95 FB with plus sink on nasty two-seamer; 81 cutter; CU; best pitch is CB; good deception; have also heard 96 peak, with few FBs below 94 all game; 5-10, 155 pounds

77. RHP Zach Jemiola (Great Oak HS, California): 89-91 FB, 92-93 peak; 76-78 CB/SL with promise, but needs work; above-average 81-84 CU that has looked better as spring has progressed; splitter; good athlete; hitters had trouble squaring up on FB; lots of groundballs; 95 peak this spring; 6-3, 200 pounds

78. RHP Alec Rash (Adel DeSoto Minburn HS, Iowa): 87-90 FB, 92-94 peak; seen later 92-94, 95 peak; really nice sink on FB; good 81 CB; good 78-80 SL, up to 84 in recent look; 80-84 CU; great athlete; always looking for ways to get better; 6-5, 200 pounds

79. OF Jesse Winker (Olympia HS, Florida): projects as LF, but a really good one; above-average raw power; really strong hit tool; plus arm strength, above-average in total due to accuracy and iffy mechanics; lightning quick bat; pretty lefthanded swing; patient approach; love the bat here; opposite field power is no joke; present power is legit; 6-3, 200 pounds; L/L

80. OF DJ Davis (Stone HS, Mississippi): plus-plus (80) speed; gap power, more there; improved approach; interesting power upside (double digit); CF range; weak arm; plus CF range; 5-11, 170 pounds

81. RHP Ryan Burr (Highlands Ranch HS, Colorado): 88-92, 93-94 FB peak; good 74-77 CB with plus upside; plus FB command; emerging 80-85 CU; extremely inconsistent, especially with delivery, control, and velocity; 6-4, 210 pounds

82. RHP Cody Poteet (Christian HS, California): 89-93 FB with sink, rare 94-96 peak; promising 75-80 CB that flashes plus; 78-83 CU; good athlete; not afraid to go inside and challenge hitters; 6-0, 180 pounds

83. RHP Keaton Haack (Northwest Guilford HS, North Carolina): 88-91 FB, 93 peak; really good 71-77 CB; 81 CU; groundball machine; good command; best days are ahead of him; 6-5, 200 pounds

84. RHP Mitchell Gueller (WF West HS, Washington): 91-92 peak, up to 96 by early May; above-average speed; great athlete; CF range; low- to mid-70s CB that could be SL in time, either way has plus upside; low-80s CU; would rather hit, but most clubs prefer him on mound; 6-3, 205 pounds

85. OF Max White (Williston HS, Florida): above-average to plus (closer to plus) speed; plus hit tool; plus arm strength; has put on strength and added power; pretty swing; present hit tool is iffy, but bat speed is there; high level CF tools; 6-2, 185 pounds

86. Florida State SR OF James Ramsey: you’ll read lots of averages in his reports, which might not excite many, but those are actually a testament to the hard work he has put in since arriving on campus – Ramsey has come as far as any college player that I can remember in recent memory; above-average hit tool; average at best defender; average range; average at best speed; average arm; average power; was always considered a LF only professionally, but his range has improved a great deal in 2012 – can now play a decent enough CF to play there in a pinch; gets good jumps despite not having blazing speed; there were some rumors that he could be tried at 2B professionally, but I’m not sure the team that drafts him will want to mess with his bat that way; he now uses the whole field so much better than when I last saw him (100% pull-heavy) that he looks like a new player; still unsure of his pro ceiling, but I think his bat is good enough to find him a role in some capacity; 6-0, 200 pounds

87. RHP Clate Schmidt (Alatoona HS, Georgia): 90-92 FB, 94-96 peak; very good 78-83 CB with plus upside; 82-85 SL; 85 CU; good athlete; two-seamer with a ton of sink; velocity down in spring; 6-2, 180 pounds

88. RHP David Gonzalez (Gainesville HS, Georgia): 88-93 FB; good present 75-77 CB; 81-83 SL with upside; might have to pick a breaking ball; mid-80s CU that looks like a splitter, also listed at 78-80; 6-1, 210 pounds

89. RHP Jose Orlando (JO) Berrios (Juan XXIII HS, Puerto Rico): 87-93 FB, 95 peak on island; easy velocity, some deception; good 71-74 CB; 75 CU; SL; 77-79 breaking ball, not sure what type; slight frame; more commonly 92-93 sitting velocity; update: 91-95 FB, 96-97 peak; 80-81 SL; 82-84 CU; holds velocity well

90. RHP Duane Underwood (Pope HS, Georgia): 87-89 FB, peak 92; new 94-98 peak in summer 2011, sitting 91-93 easily; really good 81-84 CU that flashes plus; 69-71 CB with promise, but still inconsistent; CB has also come in at 72-76; great athlete; late October: 92-95 FB; 89-91 cutter; 6-3, 190 pounds; update: better upper-70s CB; hit 96-97 in May; majority of spring has been 87-92 with iffy CB and good CU

91. Arizona State JR RHP Jake Barrett: sits 92-94 as starter, hits 95-96; as reliever he sits 93-96, hits 97-98; good, heavy FB that is difficult to make solid contact on; SL has also gained velocity in move to bullpen: was an above-average upper-70s pitch, now is an excellent mid-80s (83-87) offering; commands his breaking ball and much improved but still raw upper-70s splitter better than he does his fastball; if he throws strikes as a pro, he’ll move fast – ceiling may not quite be big league closer, but he’ll be close; 6-3, 230 pounds

92. California JR 2B Tony Renda: gifted pure hitter who was once considered a butcher in the field, but has improved a tremendous amount to the point that he is now considered at least average; will make all the plays hit at him, but range is nothing to brag about; has worked really hard to improve all-around, so makeup is not a question; now steady enough defensively to stick up the middle, though he’ll have to continue working as he progresses through minors – it’s admittedly a stretch, but I’ve heard his defense/desire to improve his defense (not great/off the charts) combination compared to a young Chase Utley, a player who few believed would ever be average at 2B but worked and worked until one day becoming one of the top defenders in the game in his prime; average at worst speed, has been timed slightly better; if his power comes as some expect, he could have enough bat to play LF; reminds me a little bit of last year’s favorite Tommy La Stella, but higher national profile will get him off board earlier; 5-10, 180 pounds

93. Oklahoma City JR C Dane Phillips: has seen time in RF as well as behind the plate; average arm strength; above-average power upside, but better hit tool; slow, but, hey, he’s a catcher, right?; I’ve long been on record in believing in Phillips sticking behind the plate long-term, citing his progress year-to-year rather than his current ability; well known as a well-traveled man: transferred from OK State to Arkansas, where he was ruled ineligible, before landing at NAIA school Oklahoma City; tools are there to be a big league starting catcher; 6-1, 200 pounds

94. Miami SR C Peter O’Brien: nothing has changed when it comes to O’Brien’s basic scouting report: plus-plus power and a strong arm, but below-average everywhere else; what has changed is his level of competition – doing what he did in the ACC has opened some eyes, and rightfully so; his hit tool isn’t as strong and he’s a better bet to stick behind the plate, but I think a comparison between O’Brien and last year’s preeminent college power hitter CJ Cron has some merit – if O’Brien had been moved off of catcher coming into the year, I wonder if scouts would appreciate his bat more rather than focusing on the negatives of his defense; 6-5, 225 pounds

95. Buffalo JR C Tom Murphy: plus raw power; good athlete; good catcher speed, average overall; above-average arm strength; came into year with many calling his defense “passable,” but in need of improvement – well, he’s improved a lot in the past four months, and now the only question surrounding his defense is how good he’ll continue to get; Murphy is a well-rounded player with enough power to profile as a potential starting catcher; 6-1, 220 pounds

96. Florida Atlantic JR RHP RJ Alvarez: 90-93 FB, 94-97 peak; impressive 80-84 CU that flashes plus; good but raw 78-80 CB with plus upside; CB has shown plus this fall as it has evolved into harder, 80-84 SL-type pitch; FB plays way up in relief – sat 93-97 this spring; iffy FB command, but good control; has moved away from straight change in favor of harder above-average 87-88 split-fingered CU; 6-1, 180 pounds

97. Washington JR 3B Jake Lamb: plus raw lefty power; average defender; plenty of arm strength; previous two points could be added together and lead to a potential switch to catcher professionally, though his progress with the bat has slowed this talk; has flashed big league tools for years and now production is finally catching up – should be a better pro than college player once adjustments are made to his swing; above-average big league starter upside; 6-3, 210 pounds

98. Purdue JR 3B Cameron Perkins: above-average power upside; interesting profile as a hitter: he’s a well-known hacker, but with low strikeout totals and a well above-average ability to hit for contact; average speed; average defender; could be very good in RF; lets ball get very deep on hands; strong arm; good athlete; 6-5, 200 pounds; bad-ball hitter; hard to strikeout; 6-5, 200 pounds

99. OF Andrew Pullin (Centralia HS, Washington): above-average arm; above-average speed; big raw power, but inconsistent in swing setup; more solid across the board than a standout in one area; little bit of Utley in swing; 6-0, 185 pounds; L/L

100. Memphis JR RHP Dan Langfield: 90-94 FB, typical 96-97 peak but up to as high as 99 at times in 2012; command and control issues; limited secondary stuff at present, but shows flashes of interesting 78-81 CB that shows plus; also unveiled a mid-80s SL with cutter action in 2012 that could be a strong pitch in time; will show a CU; has experience in multiple roles, but I like him as a starter, especially if there is more to the changeup than we’ve since so far – if not, he has legit closer stuff; 6-1, 205 pounds

101. OF Kolby Copeland (Parkway HS, Louisiana): very good athlete; good power; strong arm; love his approach; 6-2, 185 pounds

102. St. John’s JR RHP Kyle Hansen: 91-93 FB with good life, 94-96 peak; average 79-84 SL that is improving, pitch has plus upside but inconsistent shape: up to 88 on most recent looks and tends to work much better as truer slider at higher velocities than it does as an upper-70s SL/CB hybrid breaking ball; raw 80-82 CU when he started school that is now a really solid third pitch; has learned to use more upper-80s sinkers to complement four-seam heat; I’ve learned to be skeptical of overly large pitching prospects, but Hansen, for whatever reason, hasn’t gotten anywhere close to the kind of hype typically associated with similar pitchers in the past – he’s big, yes, but he is an excellent athlete who repeats his mechanics well and sits at consistent above-average velocities all while staying healthy while at college and putting up outstanding numbers year after year; hard to call a 6-8, 215 pound brother of a big leaguer a sleeper, but Hansen will likely be on the board a full three rounds past where I’d begin recommending him

103. Stanford rJR LHP Brett Mooneyham: fastball velocities have been all over the place: 85-88 over the summer, starting hitting low-90s consistently during 2011 fall ball (94 peak), fell back to 87-90 at start of season, and, finally, for the majority of the spring, he has begun games 92-94 before falling to 88-90 later in games; no matter the velocity, every fastball he throws has some degree of sink – easily his best singular quality for me, though the outstanding deception in his delivery is a close second; FB command comes and goes; has used a good 74-78 CB in the past, but now uses an average hybrid 76-81 breaking ball that is closer to a SL than a CB; good sinking 76-80 CU; improved cutter; longstanding concerns over inconsistent mechanics and economy of pitches remain; also worth mentioning that he rarely has all his pitches working at once, in a way that is somewhat similar to his rotation-mate Mark Appel; reminds me a lot of Georgia LHP Alex Wood, right down to a change in breaking ball, up and down fastballs, and funky deliveries; 6-5, 215 pounds

104. OF Braden Bishop (St. Francis HS, California): good speed; great athlete; high level glove in center field; great smarts on bases; strong arm; gap power; strong hit tool; 6-1, 180 pounds; R/R

105. OF Josh Henderson (First Baptist Christian HS, Virginia): gorgeous swing; gifted natural hitter; patient approach; good power; average speed; stuck in OF corner; average arm; average range; plus bat speed; 6-0, 190 pounds; L/L

106. UCLA JR RHP Scott Griggs: 90-94 FB, 96 peak; potential plus 78-83 CU that I like much better than most; promising 74-76 CB that flashes plus, up to harder 77-83 SL by late season – whether you call it a power CB or a SL, it is a strong present second pitch; has the stuff to close and the numbers to back it up (below), but below-average control (again, below) and poor, but improved, command both currently stand in the way; will be a win or loss based on player development over scouting, I think – to draft him high is to show a lot of trust in your organization’s ability to harness his electric stuff over time; 6-3, 200 pounds

107. Georgia rSO LHP Alex Wood: came into year sitting 88-91 FB, peaking at 92; velocity up in 2012, sitting 92-95 with good sink at times, getting as high as 96 with great life; as his fastball goes, so does his overall effectiveness; solid mid-80s CU that flashes plus, but nearly often enough; scrapped a below-average slider for what has turned into a pretty good mid-70s CB with upside, though it is still an inconsistent pitch; funk in delivery works for me as it leads to really good deception; has already endured Tommy John surgery; 6-4, 215 pounds

108. OF Austin Aune (Argyle HS, Texas): pretty lefthanded swing; great athlete; first round tools; football star who is a questionable sign; good runner; strong arm; can hit the ball anywhere it is pitched; 6-3, 190 pounds

109. Texas Tech JR 2B Jamodrick McGruder: as you’d expect, the college 2B class is more steady than spectacular so any plus ability you see is worth getting super excited about – McGruder is a plus athlete with plus speed and a plus arm; he’s also a solid defender with the chance to improve as he gets more comfortable in the infield; some teams may view him as a potential CF due to his speed and arm; above-average hit tool with enough pop to play everyday at the next level; 5-7, 170 pounds

110. OF Rhett Wiseman (Buckingham Browne & Nichols HS, Massachusetts): plus raw power; above-average to plus speed; good range in CF; iffy arm, but accurate; very raw at plate; also raw in field; swing needs work, inconsistent; have liked his showcase performances; 6-1, 200 pounds; L/R

111. OF Vahn Bozoian (Ayala HS, California): big righthanded power upside; questionable hit tool; plus-plus arm strength, but not always accurate; can handle big velocity; 6-5, 210 pounds

112. OF Fernelys Sanchez (George Washington HS, New York): plus-plus speed; can be too aggressive, but I like what I’ve seen out of his approach, especially as a spoiler; huge defensive tools; remain intrigued by hit tool; 6-3, 200 pounds

113. Chipola (FL) JC SO OF Andrew Toles: plus speed; plus arm; plus range in CF; kicked off team at Tennessee, but has rebounded nicely both on and off the field at junior college; easy player to like because his path to the big leagues is clear – he’s a defensive dynamo who can really run with enough pop to help keep his on-base abilities evolving over time; the popular comp (Michael Bourn) seems like a really fitting one; 5-10, 185 pounds

114. Rice rJR OF Jeremy Rathjen: above-average speed, power, and arm all give him the look and feel of a starting big league RF if he puts it all together; had reputation of being too aggressive at plate — mostly from being too jumpy early in counts, swinging at pitchers’ pitches — but has worked hard at Rice to hone his plate discipline; good defensive feel; coming off ACL injury, but you wouldn’t know it from breakout season; have heard comps to fellow native Texans Hunter Pence and Brad Hawpe; in a lean year for college bats, Rathjen stands out as one of the few potential starting-caliber players with All-Star upside; 6-5, 200 pounds

115. Texas A&M JR OF Tyler Naquin: plus-plus arm; pretty swing; above-average to plus speed; plus hit tool; reminds me a little of a super-charged version of Alabama OF Taylor Dugas – similar style of play, but every tool a grade (or more) better; better contemporary comparison may be Travis Jankowski; good enough to play CF, though he hasn’t gotten many chances to show it in college; can drill a fastball, but pitch recognition is an issue – like many non-big leaguers he struggles with good breaking stuff; started to show he can go the other way with the better breaking stuff as the year went on; emerging power, but will need to needs to continue to add muscle if he wants to drive the ball against professional pitching; currently his power plays mostly to the gaps; tons of plate coverage; as a CF, Naquin is a legitimate first day prospect; 6-2, 180 pounds

116. Faulkner (AL) JR RHP Corey Black: 90-95 FB, 96 peak; holds velocity late; velocity way up in 2012: sitting 94-96, 98-99 peak; above-average 81-84 CU; occasional CB, average SL; transferred from San Diego State; good fielder; nice line drive swing; 5-11, 180 pounds

117. Bellevue (WA) JC SO RHP Adrian Sampson: 89-93 FB, 94-95 peak; above-average to plus 79-84 CB; emerging CU; good command; good control; FB has good sink; really impressive command of CB; Tommy John survivor; 6-3, 200 pounds

118. West Chester (PA) SR 2B Joe Wendle: pre-season FAVORITE who earned his all-caps designation; easily the best local (to me) player, so I got the chance to see him in person fairly regularly the past two springs; no clear above-average tool, but his present skills are excellent; average speed that plays up due to smart base running and instincts in field; really like the hit tool, swing likes a big leaguer; should be good defender at 2B in time – he’s not a natural, but he gets it done; solid arm; 6-1, 190 pounds

119. 2B Alex Bregman (Albuquerque Academy, New Mexico): very strong; big power upside; gifted natural hitter; talented at all defensive spots, including short; really good athlete; nimble behind plate; outstanding approach; good speed; most likely a 2B professionally, but can also catch; improved defense behind plate before injury; average at best arm; showing some ability behind plate, but its early; wowed by his hitting ability; 5-11, 185 pounds; R/R

120. OF Bralin Jackson (Raytown South HS, Missouri): quick bat; good speed; good raw power; great athlete; above-average arm; good CF range that could be better with practice; bat is a work in progress; raw all-around, but athleticism and tools make him must follow; like the swing a lot, almost like a lefthanded swing in a righthanded hitting body; 6-0, 180 pounds; R/L

121. OF Ty Moore (Mater Dei HS, California): plus hit tool despite unorthodox swing; above-average (55ish) speed; strong enough arm; just knows how to hit; doesn’t have range for CF or power upside for corner, so tweener status limits his ceiling; 6-0, 185 pounds

122. Coastal Carolina JR RHP Josh Conway: long-time favorite prospect, so we’ll go the full three year treatment on his prospect stock starting with his freshman season: 89-91 FB, but often fell to 87-89 late in games; sat 87-93 as sophomore; good 80-86 SL that quickly became a great second pitch; also used an emerging CU that could be well above-average in time; by summer 2011, FB was 88-92, 94 peak; good sinking 83-84 CU; still featured 84-86 SL with plus upside; the bad news: TJ surgery puts his future in doubt, but worth noting that he was hitting 95-96 just prior to injury; also added a good upper-80s cutter to go along with existing mid-80s SL and 83-84 CU; great athlete; if a team believes in a full return to health, he’ll be a gigantic draft day bargain as a starter with mid-rotation upside; 6-1, 190 pounds

123. OF Skye Bolt (Holy Innocents HS, Georgia): plus arm strength; above-average speed; interesting lefthanded power; good range; very good athlete; should be good CF in time, has speed to make up for mistakes; very accurate arm; 6-2, 180 pounds; R/R

124. OF Brett Phillips (Seminole HS, Florida): plus-plus arm strength; 55 speed; 6-1, 185 pounds; above-average range in CF with time; smart hitter; swing needs retooling; average power upside, but will have to work to unlock it

125. Texas JR OF Jonathan Walsh: advanced approach; strong arm; above-average power; big league bat speed; profiles as type of player with the chance to be a better pro hitter than he showed in college – raw physical tools have outpaced his production thus far; outside chance he’ll be announced at catcher, his high school position, on draft day – if that’s the case, expect said announcement to have come way before than many national outlets are currently predicting; from 2009: tremendous athlete with questionable defense behind the plate who is a prime candidate for a position switch; best speed in the catching class; advanced bat with ML-approach should and raw power wins him a place in my heart; I’ve heard a Jayson Werth comp that is just crazy enough for me to buy Walsh as a worthwhile high round draft pick; Texas commit; 6-3, 220 pounds

126. Wake Forest rJR OF Mac Williamson: impressive raw tools, emphasis on raw; above-average to plus arm strength; too aggressive at plate, gets himself out too often; I’ve long wanted to see him move back behind plate, but realize that dream is dead – as it is, he’s a good defender with the prototypical arm for RF; physically mature and very strong; plus power upside; above-average speed, but slow starter – once he gets underway, you see his speed; much improved as hitter in 2012, chasing fewer bad balls; Williamson is interesting for a lot of reasons, not the least of which being his consistently strong power performances and improved plate discipline; if it all comes together in pro ball, Williamson is a five-tool player (four of which are decidedly above-average, the most questionable tool being his bat) with big league starter upside – he profiles very similarly to Adam Brett Walker as a hitter and athlete, but with a higher floor based on his added defensive value; has also shown promise on the mound over the years: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good sinker; good CB; shows CU; 6-4, 240 pounds

127. Jacksonville JR OF Adam Brett Walker: plus power upside; popular John Mayberry Jr. comps, especially in terms of frame makes a lot of sense; I’ll take the minority view and state that I think he has the chops to be an average RF as pro, but acknowledge that he could be very good defensively at 1B; average at best speed, but not for long as his body fills out; swing isn’t as long as you’d think and he’s a more refined ballplayer than often given credit; average hit tool; average at best arm; I think Walker gets an unfair reputation as a hulking all or nothing slugger who will have to hit 30+ homers to have any kind of long-term value; with a score of 45s/50s across the board, Walker’s game is relatively well-rounded – though, of course, it is still his power that will make him a potential big league regular or not; 6-5, 225 pounds

128. Texas Tech JR OF Barrett Barnes: plus raw power; good bat speed; above-average speed; by all accounts possesses above-average CF range, but I think his body will eventually send him to LF; good enough arm, though it is easily his weakest tool; good athlete; strong; 6-2, 220 pounds

129. Central Florida JR LHP Joe Rogers: 87-93 FB, 95 peak; good SL; 77-80 CB; good CU; three pitches and good enough control to start professionally, though it is unlikely he’d be at mid-90s peak fastballs when stretched out; 6-1, 200 pounds

130. Kentucky JR 2B Alex Yarbrough: one of the draft’s strongest hit tools; some pop to gaps, certainly enough to keep pitchers honest; above-average runner without big speed – it plays up due to smarts and instincts on the bases; defense is biggest question, but has been steady at second in 2012 – he’s reliably sure-handed with passable range; had somebody compare him to present-day (i.e. not the amateur version) of Neil Walker, citing Walker’s rookie season (2010) as Yarbrough’s upside; 6-1, 175 pounds

131. Pepperdine JR RHP Jon Moscot: 87-89 FB with good command and sink, 90-91 peak; FB up to 90-93 in summer 2011; sitting mostly 88-92 with 93-94 peak in 2012; really good yet inconsistent 78-82 SL that flashes plus; average 72-77 CB that might just be the SL with a little taken off; emerging 79-83 CU that he uses a lot; commands both his FB and CU really well, though he sometimes has trouble with his breaking stuff; plus control; easy to like Moscot, a legitimate three-pitch starter with a FB that really moves and still some projection left in his 6-4, 210 pound frame

132. Florida JR LHP Steven Rodriguez: 88-92 FB with plus movement, 93-94 peak – most often 90-93 in 2012, definitely seeing more velocity and sharper stuff in shorter bursts; potential plus 81-86 CU; above-average 82-85 SL that flashes plus; love his mid- to upper-80s cutter; 6-3, 235 pounds

133. Texas JR LHP Hoby Milner: 86-91 FB with great movement, 92-93 peak; used in a variety of ways as amateur: more often 86-89 FB as starter, low-90s as reliever; very good FB command, but not nearly as strong in this area with his offspeed stuff; once showed a potential plus mid-80s SL (freshman year?), but doesn’t use it now; instead relies heavily on mid-70s CB that has gotten a lot better since he first rolled it out as a sophomore; emerging 81-82 CU that is now solid; half-empty view might worry about his college workload/being jerked around between roles, but I think the value of his rubber arm; as thin a college pitcher as I can remember at 6-3, 165 pounds; some players give off the impression that they will be better pros than they showed in college – you watch Milner throw and you want him to be better than he is

134. Florida JR LHP Brian Johnson: really good athlete whom I actually prefer at first base; as a position player, he has a plus arm and plus power; the majority, however, understandably prefers him on mound; if actually forced to choose, I’d start him on the mound while keeping him informed (no pressure!) that a switch back to first base could be in the cards in case his four-pitch mix lets him down; 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; good 73-78 CB that flashes plus; 80-83 CU needs polish, but has improved a great deal in 2011 and is now a good pitch; emerging 81-85 SL that comes and goes; clean mechanics; very polished, high degree of pitchability; 6-4, 225 pounds

135. St. Edward’s (TX) JR RHP Stephen Johnson: consistent 93-96 FB, 98 peak; has reportedly been as high as 101, but typically tops out upper-90s; 77-81 SL that has gotten harder (mid-80s) and better over the past year; hard 84-88 CU that is better when softer; great deception; closer upside; 6-4, 200 pounds

136. RHP Robert Whalen (Haines City HS, Florida): 88-91 FB, 92-93 peak; 72-78 CB needs lots of work (73-75); 74-75 CU needs lots of work, up to 79-81 and flashing average; interesting 85 SL that flashes plus, but is raw; also had SL 76-78; has shown plus CB and been up to 95; average at best command; good sink on FB; 6-2, 200 pounds

137. RHP Taylore Cherry (Butler HS, Ohio): 92 peak FB in early 2011; big jump in velocity expected but never quite realized; new summer 2011 peak of 94, sitting 91-93; good upper-70s CB, 78-81 that might as well be SL; emerging mid-70s CU that he has upped to 83-85 and is now a plus pitch; exceptional control of huge frame; spring 2012 update: 86-87 two-seam FB, 88-91 four-seam FB; good breaking ball; 78-79 CB; 78 SL; 84-86 CU 6-9, 260 pounds; at his best can throw 91-94 FB with plus sink as well as a 77-79 CB with above-average upside and a low-80s CU with at least average upside, but hasn’t been at his best for a long time

138. RHP Edwin Diaz (Naguabo HS, Puerto Rico): 89-91 FB, 92-94 peak; rumors of a 95 peak confirmed; 79-81 SL; 79-83 CU; update: 92-95 FB, 97 peak; 77-80 CB also called slurve, so who knows; 83-84 CU that he doesn’t show often; 6-3, 165 pounds

139. RHP Mitchell Traver (Houston Christian HS, Texas): 88-92 FB; 82-84 CU is very raw but has good sink; good 81-83 SL (confirmed) also called a near-plus 78-80 CB – either way, pitch was dominant breaking ball; command needs work; late summer 94-95 peak FB, sitting 92-94 with ease; also have him 89-92 on lesser days; confirmed above-average 75-79 CB; good FB command now after tweaking mechanics; 91-93 in spring look; 6-7, 240 pounds

140. Virginia JR SS Chris Taylor: plus arm strength; very athletic; steady defender capable of making majority of plays on balls hit at or near him while also pulling off the occasional highlight reel stop and throw; profiles best as leadoff hitter (if he has enough pop to maintain on-base skills) or seventh/eighth hitter in a better lineup; I think his speed has been exaggerated by some outlets, but it is still comfortably above-average; has some power to gaps, but likely never a double-digit HR power guy in big leagues; relatively high floor (utility guy) prospect with the enticing ceiling of everyday shortstop – I tend to err on the side of caution with respect to his upside, but still think he has such a well-rounded skill set that the odds of him reaching the highest levels of pro ball are all but assured; 6-0, 175 pounds

141. Miami JR SS Stephen Perez: plus arm strength, accuracy comes and goes; plus defensive tools, but inconsistent present ability – even his range varies from outing to outing, but the flashes are enough to make you think he can defend in the big leagues; good runner; fringe-average power upside, but currently below-average; have heard Cincinnati, the team that drafted him out of high school, is in on him again this year; 5-11, 185 pounds

142. RHP Ryan McNeil (Nipomo HS, California): 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; FB has legit plus sink; 75-80 CB has firmed up and now works closer to a good 78-84 SL that flashes plus; 77-81 CU; steady performer throughout summer and early spring; late 2012 spring update: velocity down across the board; 88-89 FB; less impressive 73-74 hybrid breaking ball; 6-3, 210 pounds

143. RHP Jamie Callahan (Dillon HS, South Carolina): 88-91 FB, 92-93 peak; good 71-74 CB; SL; good 79-84 CU that comes out of his hand like the FB, good sinking action; spring 2012 update: improved on 77-81 CB by adding velocity; 6-3, 200 pounds

144. RHP Michael Rucker (Auburn Riverside HS, Washington): 89-91 FB, 92 peak; good 79-81 SL; good 80 CU; outstanding command; 6-0, 180 pounds

145. RHP Hayden Hurst (Bolles School, Florida): 88-91 FB, 93-94 peak; rumors of 96 peak when healthy; good 72-75 CB; 77-78 SL; 6-5, 235 pounds; Tommy John survivor; 6-5, 235 pounds

146. Samford JR LHP Lex Rutledge: 92-95 FB, 97 peak out of bullpen; plus 78-82 CB; below-average control; 6-1, 185 pounds

147. Orange Coast CC (CA) rFR RHP Brandon Brennan: 88-93 FB, 95 peak; average 83-84 SL; average CU with more upside than that for me; transfer from Oregon; 6-4, 225 pounds

148. SS AJ Simcox (Faragut HS, Tennessee): excellent range, especially to his left; strong arm; gap power; needs to add bulk and has the frame to do it; advanced hit tool; reminds me of a last year’s top prep from Tennessee Nick Delmonico a bit; average speed, maybe a tad more; he can definitely stay at shortstop, so if you buy the bat, and I do, he’s a keeper; 6-3, 170 pounds

149. SS Dansby Swanson (Marietta HS, Georgia): good athlete; plus speed; strong hit tool; good defensive tools; 6-1, 170 pounds

150. Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli: above-average speed; good athlete; chance to be really good defender, but isn’t quite there yet – still think he’s better than many of the national outlets are reporting, but I get that there’s plenty of wiggle room in player evaluation; no discernible platoon split; 6-1, 190 pounds; I’ve long championed Mazzilli as a potential big league starting second baseman, so I might as well ride it out: Really impressed by 2B LJ Mazzilli‘s swing and approach at the plate. He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).

151. Virginia JR RHP Branden Kline: 88-91 FB, 93 peak; FB up as sophomore, hitting mid-90s (92-94) consistently; average or slightly better 80-84 CU with plus upside; good low-80s SL, 82-83 and flashing plus this summer; good athlete; 2012 update: 92-94 FB consistently, 95 peak; 89-92 as starter; 94-95 peak; 82-85 SL flashes above-average with good arm action; 73-78 CB needs work, shows average; FB reliant; big concern as starter is velocity loss: often mid-80s in mid-innings; 6-3, 200 pounds

152. Georgia Tech JR RHP Buck Farmer: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; more often 88-90, peaking 92-93 in 2012; has relied more on 86-87 two-seamer to compensate for velocity dip; potential plus 78-81 SL, but not there yet; much improved sinking 78-83 CU that is now an above-average big league pitch; inconsistent 74-78 CB; iffy command – rumors of it being much improved in spring, throwing all four pitches for strikes; his two breaking balls run into each other for me, not so much in the past but certainly this year; 6-4, 225 pounds

153. 2B Chase Nyman (Pascagoula HS, Mississippi): lets ball get in very deep before swinging; very mature approach to hitting; born to hit; plus hit tool; no other tool stands out, but he can hit; room for added strength; 6-0, 185 pounds

154. C Brian De La Rosa (Olympic Heights HS, Florida): advanced defender; very accurate arm; plus arm; good athlete; mobile behind the plate; good raw power; 5-10, 190 pounds

155. RHP Zachary Bird (Murrah HS, Mississippi): 91 peak; good but inconsistent 71-74 CB; 78 SL; 6-4, 190 pounds; rumors of 94-95 peak this spring

156. RHP Freddy Avis (Menlo HS, California): 90-93 FB, 94 peak; inconsistent 70-74 CB that is excellent when on, can get up to 75-77; good 82-84 CU; 6-2, 180 pounds

157. Oklahoma JR RHP Damien Magnifico: 93-96 FB, 97-100 peak; rumors of 102-103 peak out there, believe them or not; Magnifico’s peak is less important than his high velocity floor: he’s rarely below 95 out of bullpen, most often 95-99; emerging 78 SL; returned from stress fracture in elbow last spring and his slider was deemphasized due to injury; has worked on developing cutter; surprised by sudden progress of 78 CU; I’m in the minority, but the chance for three pitches combined with the way he held his velocity as a starter has me more than a little intrigued at the thought of stretching him out in pro ball; 6-2, 200 pounds

158. Florida JR RHP Austin Maddox: 90-94 FB, 95-96 peak; will dip to upper-80s to throw a two-seam with plus sink; 83-85 SL was much, much improved in 2012; still shows 78-81 CU that has improved some, but not quite enough to be usable third pitch just yet; still think I’d be that one annoying voice in the room insisting that Maddox be tried behind the plate once again, though I realize doing so is essentially a lost cause; 6-4, 225 pounds

159. 3B Jackson Campana (Providence HS, North Carolina): plus arm; huge raw power; 87-89 FB; above-average defensive tools at third; 6-6, 200 pounds

160. 3B Corey Oswalt (James Madison HS, California): power is his best tool; nice swing setup; quick bat; great athlete; plus arm; tools to be at least average defensively; 88-90 FB, 91-92 peak; good 77-80 CB; 6-4, 215 pounds; R/R

161. OF Tyrone Taylor (Torrance HS, California): great athlete; above-average speed, really quick accelerator; interesting hit tool; big defensive tools; not a ton of power upside, but has some sneaky pop; leadoff future; gap power at his best; 6-2, 180 pounds

162. OF Vincent Jackson (Luella HS, Georgia): big personal favorite as hitter; can hit velocity; average speed; strong arm; 6-4, 200 pounds

163. OF Justin Black (West HS, Montana): good defender in corner, can play CF due to great first step quickness and positioning; plus speed; slash and dash at this point, but power could come as he fills out; 6-1, 185 pounds

164. St. John’s JR OF Jeremy Baltz: above-average raw power that is already playing to all fields – willing to go where the pitch is thrown; strong hit tool; plus bat speed; slow; average at best arm; not very good in LF, so he has a ton riding on his bat; 6-3, 205 pounds

165. Rice rSR RHP Matthew Reckling: 86-91 FB as starter, hitting 92-93; up to 89-94 as reliever, getting into the mid-90s on occasion; good 76-81 kCB that he leans on very heavily; underutilized yet very interesting 80-82 CU with upside; I’ve never been big on commenting on pitching mechanics, but there is something in his delivery that makes me think the bullpen is his eventual destination; also think the delivery is a big part of what has led him to a history of command issues and below-average control; has relied on two-seamers more often in 2012, though he can still get his four-seam up to 94-95 out of the bullpen; more movement on kCB that now sits more commonly between 78-84, flashing plus more often; could be groomed as sinker/spike curve reliever if his changeup and delivery aren’t up to pro levels in a hurry; 6-4, 215 pounds

166. 3B Dylan LaVelle (Lake Stevens HS, Washington): quick bat; good power; slow; tools to play a good third base; strong hit tool; power upside; 6-2, 200 pounds

167. Oklahoma JR LHP Steven Okert: 88-91 FB, 92-94 peak; up to 94-97 out of bullpen; good SL; CU is better than often given credit; command comes and goes; reminds me a little bit of Chris Reed before Reed became last year’s “it” first round pick – could be a dominant reliever if everything breaks right, but also has the chance to continue starting at next level; 6-3, 220 pounds

168. 3B Xavier Turner (Sandusky HS, Ohio): great base stealer; good arm; above-average speed; gap power; good defensive tools; quick bat; like him a lot; swings like a hitter, not a slugger but can still hit it out; 6-1, 205 pounds

169. Northwestern State JR LHP Mason Melotakis: had him 91-95 FB, 97 peak coming into year; currently sits 94-98 much more consistently, rarely dipping below 93 in short stints; 85-87 SL that flashes plus, but is far too inconsistent; shows CU; I think he can work as a starter because of his improved breaking ball and ability to hold his velocity (92-95) as a starter, but the lack of a reliable third pitch and mechanics that scare scouts likely keep him in the bullpen professionally; 6-3, 200 pounds

170. Radford JR RHP Eddie Butler: 91-93 FB with loads of sink, hard to square up on, 94-97 peak; throwing harder in 2012 (93-95 more consistently, still peaking 96-97); very projectable frame; improved CU in 2012 has helped, but doesn’t use it often; FB is a legit plus pitch, lots of movement; personally prefer the 78-84 SL over the 71-75 CB, but neither pitch is of pro quality just yet; iffy command; very impressed that his FB has remained a plus pitch even during longer outings – in one start, he didn’t throw a fastball under 92; FB is his current meal ticket, but the development of a second pitch (SL most likely) will be necessary professionally; if you’re getting greedy, there is some hope here that a third pitch (CU) could help him start; 6-2, 165 pounds

171. 3B JT Phillips (Columbus HS, Georgia): no problems with velocity; quick bat; plus arm that would play at either third or catcher; good athlete; like him as a defender at third, good reactions; interesting power; TJ survivor; 91-93 FB, 94 peak; 73-74 CB; 6-3, 200 pounds

172. C Blake Baxendale (Rogers Heritage HS, Arkansas): improved defender with improved conditioning, always had above-average defensive tools; big present power; uses whole field as hitter; 6-3, 210 pounds

173. Xavier JR RHP Seth Willoughby: 92-95 FB; plus 87-90 cutter/SL; fresh arm; has the two plus pitches needed to move very quickly as a reliever; to put into perspective how far he’s come this year, there were many people around baseball who thought he’d profile best as a second baseman (2011: .320/.436/.459 – 29 BB/29 K – 181 AB) heading into the year; 6-1, 185 pounds

174. St. John’s JR RHP Matt Carasiti: heavy 88-91 FB, 92-94 peak; now more regularly sitting 91-93, 95-96 peak; really good 75-79 SL; good low-80s split-CU that flashes plus; much improved command, especially of offspeed stuff; at his best when FB sinks naturally, i.e. not overthrowing the ball; control a question going forward, but has the raw stuff to start in pro ball – I didn’t think much of him coming into year, but am now a believer after seeing how much progress he made from his sophomore season ; 6-3, 210 pounds

175. RHP Dalton Brown (Ponder HS, Texas): 88-91 FB, 93 peak; good 78-83 SL with plus upside – some consider it more of a hybrid breaking ball; CB; 82 CU; 6-3, 230 pounds

176. Howard JC (TX) SO LHP Logan Ehlers: 87-92 FB, 94 peak; has shown makings of two plus breaking balls at various points in his development – a plus CB back in the day and a current low-80s SL that flashes plus today; raw CU; Nebraska transfer; 6-2, 215 pounds

177. RHP Cal Becker (Redwood HS, California): 90-93 FB, 95 peak; good 81-84 SL; 75 CB; 83 CU; 6-1, 200 pounds

178. C Korey Dunbar (Nitro HS, West Virginia): good defensive tools; big raw power to all fields; plus arm; good athleticism; 6-1, 215 pounds

179. OF Theo Alexander (Lake Washington HS, Washington): quick bat; no problem with high velocity; strong; LF in pros; average speed; 6-2, 200 pounds

180. OF Steven Golden (St. Francis HS, California): good arm; very good speed; good instincts in OF combined with his speed give him plus range; line drive swing with very few moving parts – I like his hit tool more than most, though power upside is questionable; 6-3, 180 pounds; R/R

181. Liberty JR RHP Blake Forslund: 92-95 FB, 97-98 peak; good 89-91 cutter; splitter; threw everything hard prior to 2012, but improved CB gives him his first legitimate breaking ball; Virginia transfer; below-average control; 6-4, 215 pounds

182. RHP Jackson McClelland (Redlands East Valley HS): 85-89 FB, up to 89-93 and peaking at 94; 72-75 CB; 70 SL; 78-80 CU; typically 88-92, 94 peak; 6-5, 245

183. RHP Damien Carroll (King George HS, Virginia): 90-93 FB, 95-96 peak; raw, but loads of projection; raw SL/CB; rawer CU; inconsistent velocity from outing to outing; 6-3, 200 pounds

184. LHP Chase Mullins (Bourbon County HS, Kentucky): 86-89 FB, 90-91 peak; good mid-70s CB (76); really knows how to pitch; 78-80 CU; 75-78 SL; 6-9, 250 pounds; 94 peak this spring, sitting velocity up some (89-91); 76-78 SL; 80 CU; FB reliant

185. LHP Max Foody (IMG Baseball Academy, Florida): plus arm strength; 87-92 FB; good 74-80 CB; 79-82 CU; 6-4, 225 pounds

186. RHP Eric Hanhold (East Lake HS, Florida): 88-90 FB, 92-93 peak; up to 90-93 now, 95 peak; 73-78 CB; 80-81 CU; 6-5, 180 pounds

187. LHP Matt Crownover (Ringgold HS, Georgia): 87-90 FB, 91 peak; really good 71-76 straight CU that is near plus; 72-75 CB that is very raw, but flashes above-average; 83 SL; sitting 90-93 (94-95 peak) by late summer, but hasn’t maintained gains in spring; scouts rave about his pitchability; can cut the FB; commands everything well; plus pickoff move; March 2012 TJ surgery; 6-0, 200 pounds

188. RHP Jeremy Kivel (Spring HS, Texas): 90-93 FB, 94-95 peak; very good CB with plus upside; CU; torn ACL puts his future in doubt; 6-2, 200 pounds

189. OF Giovanni Brusa (St. Mary’s HS, California): above-average arm; above-average speed; great athlete; big power upside; raw hit tool; could be league average defender in RF; 6-3, 200 pounds

190. LSU rJR OF Raph Rhymes: I think Rhymes gets downplayed as a prospect by national draft experts because they are guarding against casual fans overrating one of college baseball’s relatively well-known players; there’s really no denying that he is a wonderful natural hitter, though it is probably fair to say that his hit tool is his only above-average tool; I think he’ll be passable in left field with enough pop and plate discipline to potentially make it as a big league starter; he does run the risk of being an “all or nothing” prospect – if he can’t make it as a big league starter, then his ceiling drops down to pinch hitter only as he doesn’t fit defensively as a backup outfielder; 6-0, 180 pounds

191. Georgia Tech JR OF Brandon Thomas: above-average to plus speed; power upside largely untapped; really great athlete – if there’s one thing about his game that stands out, it is his athleticism; average hit tool with average power upside; good CF range; good enough arm, but far from special – not strong, but accurate; perfect world ceiling that a scout threw out: Andre Ethier; I think of him as a slightly lesser version of Barrett Barnes; 6-3, 205 pounds

192. UCLA JR OF Jeff Gelalich: above-average runner; good range in corner; good athlete; solid all-around defender; above-average hit tool; has added strength; average to just above-average arm; can play CF, but best in corner – likely best in LF, but good enough to cover all over; seen by many as a potentially excellent reserve outfielder, but I think he’s got a strong enough all-around game to start down the line; 6-1, 200 pounds

193. Florida State JR 1B Jayce Boyd: long believed to have plus power upside in bat, but still developing; plus to plus-plus fielder; uncanny how gifted a natural hitter he is; well-earned reputation as more of a hitter than slugger, a distinction that could scare some teams off when projecting a first base bat; similar prospect in some ways to Christian Walker, but better physical projection, defense, athleticism, and power ceiling give him edge; 6-3, 200 pounds

194. C Austin Barr (Camas HS, Washington): plus raw power; quick bat; good athlete; Stanford commit; 6-3, 215 pounds

195. C Steve Bean (Rockwall HS, Texas): best known for his plus arm and outstanding defensive tools, though he is still growing into the position defensively; good athlete; decent runner for a catcher, but not exactly fleet of foot in the grand scheme of things; interesting power upside that some scouts insist on and others don’t buy into; not just strong, but baseball strong – he’s built well, and he knows how to use it to his advantage on the diamond; prep catchers always carry risk, but Bean’s defensive upside negates some of it – I’m not as sold on the bat as others; 6-2, 190 pounds

196. RHP Jake Sborz (McLean HS, Virginia): 86-91 FB, 92-93 peak; 75-83 CB; 77-82 CU; 79 SL; good command; two breaking balls could be one hybrid

197. RHP Kevin Elder (Burlington Central HS, Illinois): 86-91 FB; good 76-81 CB; 79-82 SL; also have plus 72 SL

198. RHP James Marvel (Campolinda HS, California): 88-90 FB with good movement and command, 91 peak; good 76-78 CB that is inconsistent; Duke commitment; velocity has gone up to 90-94 range; 6-3, 185 pounds

199. RHP Justin Alleman (Holt HS, Michigan): 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good 75 CB; also have CB at 82-84; above-average upside with CU; 6-3, 200 pounds

200. VCU JR RHP Blake Hauser: 90-94 FB, 97 peak; holds velocity late; emerging 81-84 CU that has gotten better, but is badly underutilized; once threw a near-plus 72-75 CB, but has moved away from it in favor of a mid-80s (83-86) SL that he is simply too reliant on, even though it is a really fine pitch; broken record alert: I think he has the stuff to be tried as a starter, but I can understand a pro team wanting to fast track him in the bullpen as a two-pitch reliever who should move quickly through a system; 6-2, 180 pounds

201. Florida International rJR LHP Mason McVay: 87-91 FB post-injury as starter; solid potential with CB, plus upside; mechanics need cleaning up; control is an issue; peaked at 95-96 out of bullpen in fall 2011, so, if healthy, he can throw some smoke; Tommy John survivor; good coaching and good health will go a long way in determining his pro future, but his two potential plus pitches and size give him more upside than your typical double-digit round pick; 6-8, 240 pounds

202. 1B Ron Miller (Serra HS, California): great bat speed; above-average arm; plus raw righthanded pull-side power; pitch recognition to be watched; strong; 5-11, 215 pounds

203. 1B Khristian Brito (Quinones Medina HS, Puerto Rico): plus-plus raw power, but little else beyond that; does have a strong arm and better than you’d expect athleticism for his size; comparable to Keon Barnum, but has the edge in one key factor: age; 6-4, 230 pounds

204. 1B Keon Barnum (King HS, Florida): plus arm; plus power upside; Ryan Howard comp; solid defender; super strong; surprisingly athletic; compact swing; Jon Singleton comp; 6-4, 225 pounds; L/L

205. 3B Cody Gunter (Flower Mound HS, Texas): plus arm strength; interesting upside with bat; good defensive tools; 6-3, 200 pounds

206. Central Arizona JC FR 3B Fernando Perez: above-average arm strength; good athlete; quick bat; nice swing; average or slightly better defensive tools; average at best speed; could also play 2B, but may grow too much to make this a realistic possibility; 6-2, 200 pounds

207. CC Western Nevada SO RHP Dylan Baker: 91-94 FB, 95-97 peak; good 78-83 CB; better 81-86 SL; shows CU; 6-3, 215 pounds

208. Arizona State JR 2B Joey DeMichele: decent speed; for the longest time he was a man without a position, but settled in as the kind of second baseman who makes plays on balls hit him and not much more; his plus hit tool is one of the best in his class; above-average power with the chance to hit 15+ homers professionally; 5-11, 185 pounds

209. Stanford JR 2B Kenny Diekroeger: plus-plus athlete, one of the best of the college class; very quick bat; gap power; advanced approach that has come unglued since freshman season; average or better speed; average defensive tools – hands work, average arm for 3B; can play a solid 3B and a passable SS, but best fit 2B long-term; average or better power projection; has added needed strength this past spring; undeniable that swing needs fixing; any selection of Diekroeger will be done by a team who believes they can undo some of the damage done by the Stanford coaching staff, though recent rumblings place equal blame on the player’s unwillingness to put ego aside and adjust his own game; 6-2, 200 pounds

210. OF Jamie Jarmon (Indian River HS, Delaware): average power upside; above-average RF arm; 55 speed; takes some weird routes in outfield, but could stick in CF with more reps; good athlete; 6-3, 205 pounds

211. LHP Jake Drossner (Council Rock North HS, Pennsylvania): 86-88 FB, 90-92 peak; good 73-75 CB; 77 SL/cutter; 80 CU; good command; good athlete; 6-3, 200 pounds

212. LHP Austin Fairchild (St. Thomas HS, Texas): 88-91 FB, 93-94 peak; good FB command; FB moves; good 74-78 CB; 6-0, 175 pounds

213. RHP Tony Blanford (Boulder Creek HS, Arizona): 88-91 FB, 92-93 peak; good 72-78 CB that flashes plus; good 77-81 CU; good athlete; velocity down this spring; 6-3, 180 pounds

214. Merced (CA) JC FR RHP Derick Velazquez: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; FB is a plus pitch even when velocity isn’t there, lots of movement; groundball machine; good CB flashes plus; intriguing circle CU; fresh arm; young for his class; good deception; 6-3, 185 pounds

215. C Scott Williams (Conestoga HS, Pennsylvania): interesting power upside; needs to get stronger; much improved over course of summer; well-rounded skills

216. Southeast Missouri State rSR 3B Trenton Moses: stronger hit tool than given credit for – he’s more than just an over-aged college slugger, though his experience and physical maturation advantages over current college competition should not be dismissed; patient approach, understands pitchers; well above-average raw power; much debate about defensive future, but think he is just athletic enough with just enough arm and just steady enough hands and actions to stick for a few years; if I thought he could hold his own as a corner outfielder, I’d feel a lot better about his future as a potential four-corners (1B/3B/LF/RF) utility guy; as it is, you could do a lot worse with a mid-round pick than to take an advanced college bat like this; 6-3, 230 pounds

217. St. Mary’s JR 3B Patrick Wisdom: solid speed; good defender; plus arm; very strong; plus power upside, big scouting community divide on hit tool; some speculation he could be tried behind plate, but I think his upside as a league average offensive and defensive third baseman shouldn’t be messed with; 6-2, 215 pounds

218. 1B Matt Olson (Parkview HS, Georgia): good power; no problems with big velocity; average arm; average defender; good swing; quick bat; body looks better; swing looks good; 89 FB; 6-4, 225 pounds

219. Walters State (TN) CC SO OF Marcus Davis: from elite high school recruit to a stretch of injuries and ineffectiveness to finally putting up outstanding numbers in 2012; great approach to hitting, very smart ballplayer; below-average arm; plus runner; change in swing mechanics have helped unlock power; not a great defender, so likely limited to LF or even 1B as a professional; comparable to Adam Brett Walker in a lot of ways; 6-2, 215 pounds

220. College of Charleston SR RHP David Peterson: 88-92 FB with good sink as starter, but up to 94-96 as reliever; low-80s CB and CU both need work; plus command across board; hard 90-92 cutter has become out pitch; he’s a reliever all the way, but a darn good one; 6-4, 215 pounds

221. RHP Kyle Funkhouser (Oak Forest HS, Illinois): 87-90 FB, 92 peak; good 75-79 CB; nice 80-83 CU; nice two-seamer; 6-2, 200 pounds

222. RHP Quinn Carpenter (Goshen HS, New York): 87-90 FB, 92 peak; 79-81 SL; excellent command; 6-5, 200 pounds

223. RHP Teddy Stankiewicz (Southwest Christian HS, Texas): 88-92 FB, rare 93-94 peak; 73-76 CB has evolved into great 78-84 SL over time; 80 CU; 6-4, 200 pounds

224. RHP Daniel Starwalt (Granite Hills HS, California): 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; good 73-75 CB that has been up to 80 when healthy; straight CU; health concerns could push him to honoring his Stanford commitment; 6-3, 200 pounds

225. SS William DuPont (Lafayette HS, Missouri): plus-plus speed; swing needs some work; quick bat; plus defensive tools at 2B; plus range; can hang at SS; good pop; 6-1, 180 pounds

226. SS Cory Raley (Uvalde HS, Texas): plus speed; good athlete; 6-2, 185 pounds

227. 2B Leon Byrd (Cypress Ranch HS, Texas): good speed; more quick than fast, but very quick; good defender at both second base and center field; great approach; leadoff profile; reminds me some of Shon Carson last year; 5-8

228. 2B Max Schrock (Cardinal Gibbons HS, North Carolina): line drive approach; really solid defensively; strong South Carolina commitment; nice pop for middle infielder; won’t wow with speed or arm average at best speed, average at best arm; hate to resort to the cliché, but he’s a ballplayer – no crazy tools, not a premium athlete, not always aesthetically pleasing watching him play, but will do the things that help you win games…and, yeah, he can hit, too; 5-9, 180 pounds

229. Howard JC (TX) SO OF Dexter Kjerstad: plus speed; good raw power; transfer from Texas; lots of untapped talent – has begun to flash tools more consistently to the point where he’s a certifiable draft sleeper; 6-1, 210 pounds

230. C Charles Moorman (El Capitan HS, California): advanced defender; good arm, very accurate; good approach at plate

231. 1B Chris Shaw (Lexington HS, Massachusetts): easy raw power; strong arm; good athlete; decent runner; 6-4, 225 pounds

232. Kentucky JR C Luke Maile: good bat speed; big raw power; good arm; raw defensively; good athlete with room to grow into his body a little more; strong track record hitting against high velocity arms in SEC and summer league; lack of experience as backstop is worrisome, but has the tools to be a competent defender going forward; not quite enough bat to play first (at least as a starter), nor is he athletic enough to play anywhere but C/1B, so his future hinges on his ability to defend – I tend to think most questions of position switches at the amateur level tend to be answered in an unfavorable way sooner rather than later, but for some reason I’m less likely to move a prospect off catcher than any other position; long story short: Maile is a good enough defender with the chance to hit like an everyday player behind the plate; 6-3, 210 pounds

233. 2B Jackson Willeford (Ramona HS, California): really mature approach to hitting; strong hit tool;

234. South Carolina JR 1B Christian Walker: power potential though still mostly to gaps, but driving it the alleys consistently enough that the overall power package might play despite the lack of home run pop; still a somewhat shaky defender, but has improved over years; like Jayce Boyd, Walker is a gifted natural hitter with a potential plus hit tool; can be too passive, but I appreciate patience, especially when it comes from a smart place (i.e. as the main power source in the Gamecocks lineup Walker knows he is being pitched around, so he’s not taking the bait and rolling over on soft junk away); far from a slam dunk future starting big league first baseman, but could be good value as a potential stopgap/platoon prospect later in the draft than his production warrants; 6-1, 220 pounds

235. Florida SR 1B Preston Tucker: plus power; good approach; stronger than you’d think hit tool; dead-pull hitter when it comes to hitting the ball out, but has shown increased ability to go the other way to the gaps and for singles; surprisingly competent corner outfielder, though likely will only see time in a spot other than first base in case of emergency in pro ball; his doubters raise fair points against him (bad body, limited projection, 1.5 tool player) but all he’s done now for years is hit – the bar for starting big league first basemen is sky high and, even though I’m a big fan, I don’t think Tucker quite meets the standard, but he’s earned the chance to get selected in the top ten rounds and sink or swim in pro ball; as a high profile slugger on one of college baseball’s most talented, and thus most heavily scouted, teams, Tucker has been talked about way too much to be called a sleeper, but he’s still worth mentioning as a potentially undervalued pick heading into the draft; 6-0, 220 pounds

236. Baylor JR 1B Max Muncy: line drive machine; solid power upside that has been upgraded as he’s added strength (15 pounds); average speed; good defender; great approach; athletic enough that he might work at 2B or OF, though now that he’s bulked up some a potential position switch might not be necessary/possible; Muncy won’t ever hit 30+ professional homers in a season, but could put together an overall package of skills (defense, speed, plate discipline) that make him a potential big league starter in time; 6-0, 205 pounds

237. 1B Austin Dean (Klein Collins HS, Texas): very interesting hit tool; good power; good enough athlete that 2B may be a realistic pro possibility; below-average arm strength; average speed; 6-1, 185 pounds

238. Washington State rJR 1B Taylor Ard: plus raw power; decent enough athlete who is underrated in this area by many; advanced approach; similar in some ways to Preston Tucker in that both players have been on the map for years and discounted as viable prospects for just as long, but just keep getting on base and hitting for power; 6-2, 225 pounds

239. 1B Dylan Cozens (Chaparral HS, Arizona): raw; big power upside; decent speed and good athleticism for big man; average arm; 6-6, 235 pounds; reminds me of Wallace Gonzalez from last year’s draft

240. Florida State JR 2B Devon Travis: plus athlete; excellent defensive tools, inconsistent performance – still has a strong arm and above-average range; plus speed; leadoff approach; rave reviews this past fall, but hasn’t translated to the knockout junior season that many expected; 5-9, 180 pounds

241. 2B Avery Romero (Pedro Menendez HS, Florida): line drive swing; has the arm and quick release to potentially move behind plate; flashes impressive power; catcher’s body, short and squat; strong arm; strong hit tool; average speed, but came out closer to below-average in my looks

242. RHP Jon Sandford (Winter Springs HS, Florida): 88-91 FB, 92-94 peak; good CU; 79-81 SL, also called CB; 6-5, 220 pounds

243. Ohio JR RHP Seth Streich: came to school sitting 87-90 with FB, 91-92 peak; has now upped velocity to comfortable 90-93 range, peaking 95-96; once flashed a plus CB, but breaking ball has morphed into harder, mid-80s SL; also uses CU; similar to Seth Willoughby in that both are two-way college players from the state of Ohio with relatively little experience on the mound but the chance to move quick as professional relievers; 6-4, 205 pounds

244. RHP Ray Castillo (Russell County HS, Alabama): 86-90 FB, 91 peak; has been up to 95 this spring; good 74-79 CB; 81 CU

245. RHP Nolan Gannon (Santa Fe Christian HS, California): 88-92 FB; 70-77 CB that was inconsistent, but flashes plus when thrown harder; loses some velocity in-game, could be attributed to delivery hiccup; CU; 6-5, 200 pounds

246. RHP Kenny Koplove (William Penn Charter HS, Pennsylvania): sits mid- to upper-80s with FB, 94 peak; crazy sidearm CB that is awesome; Duke commitment; not the next Stroman, but not not the next Stroman if you catch my drift; 6-0, 160 pounds

247. LHP Brett Lilek (Marian Catholic HS, Illinois): 86-90 FB, 92 peak; plus command; good 73-76 CB; 77-80 SL; 79-83 CU; good athlete; 6-4, 185 pounds

248. RHP Kayden Porter (Spanish Fork HS, Utah): 88-92 FB, 94 peak with sink; good 79-81 CB that he’ll also slow down to 73; nasty hard 79-80 splitter; 6-5, 250 pounds; plus raw power from right side; mature approach; velocity down late in summer; R/R

249. LHP Dylan Silva (America Heritage-Delray HS, Florida): 84-89 FB, 90-91 peak; good upper-70s CB, also called 77-79 SL; solid CU; plus command; lots of deception in his delivery; everything he throws moves

250. Lee (TN) JR RHP Kris Hall: 90-93 FB, 94-96 peak; good 81-85 SL that flashes plus; new CU; has come a long way as a pitcher; 6-3, 215 pounds

251. RHP Connor Baits (Point Loma HS, California): 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; good 79-81 SL; 79-81 CB; two breaking balls probably same pitch; 82-84 CU; high effort delivery; good command; 6-5, 220 pounds

252. Gateway (AZ) JC SO RHP Trey Lang: 90-93 FB, 95-96 peak; promising SL that flashes plus; average CU; new to pitching; good athlete; good command across board; 6-3, 230 pounds

253. 3B Eric Neitzel (Gulliver Prep, Florida): good power; above-average speed; good enough athlete; iffy arm; like his bat

254. SS Paxton De La Garza (Coronado HS, Texas): average speed; strong hit tool; good defensive tools; 6-0, 180 pounds

255. SS Brandon Lopez (American Heritage HS, Florida): no standout tools, but very well-rounded; good enough range; arm allows him to play deeper and cover more ground; more and more impressed with his defense with each look; low-90s peak FB; hit tool is a question; 6-2, 180 pounds

256. Oregon SO C Aaron Jones: has improved enough defensively that I have no doubt that he’ll stick; strong arm and more than athletic enough to play RF if he has to; interesting hit tool with above-average power upside; average speed; has intriguing track record with wood bats and a swing that should translate well to pro ball; some catchers are born, others made – Jones is one of the many 2012 prospects (Elander, Trahan, Sabol, Phillips) that fall in the latter category, but he has the tools to develop into a solid defender and an above-average hitter for the position; 6-1, 200 pounds

257. Vanderbilt JR OF Connor Harrell: one of few college prospects in class with real five-tool potential, but has never been able to put it all together as amateur; really good defender in corner; also capable of playing an average CF; strong arm; above-average raw power; plus speed; big question for me remains approach at plate – not too many players are talented enough to get away with his kind of BB/K numbers; 6-3, 215 pounds

258. Stanford JR OF Jacob Stewart: you don’t need a program to identify Stewart as his special athleticism is evident right off the bat; if it all clicks, he’s one of the draft’s few players who can claim a legitimate five-tool ceiling; unfortunately, even after three years at Stanford, he’s still very, very raw; above-average to plus speed; plus range in center; strong arm; poor pitch recognition is what kills him – he’ll have some of the most painful at bats you’ll ever see; easy bottom line: star upside due to athleticism and range/speed in CF, but if he doesn’t hit, he won’t reach the big leagues – he’s the kind of player that makes me happy that my job isn’t on the line with these rankings; 6-3, 205 pounds

259. Baylor JR OF Logan Vick: so many players are draft-eligible each year that some inevitably blend together, but Vick’s profile makes him stand out as one of a kind; could excel at almost any defensive position (2B, 3B, potentially C) if given time; outstanding approach; plus runner; strong arm; currently a good CF, his most likely pro spot, strong instincts; smart hitter – knows when to take and when to let fly; Vick is a hard player to typecast, but a smart team will find a spot for him if he develops as expected; 5-11, 200 pounds

260. 3B Preston Scott (Hanford HS, California): really quick bat; big power upside; promising defender

261. 3B Kevin Ross (Niles West HS, Illinois): intense swing with lots of moving parts, but getting better as he makes adjustments; high level of contact; plus arm; interesting power upside; good range; whole fields approach; 6-1, 215 pounds

262. RHP Cameron Tekker (Cuthbertson HS, North Carolina): 87-89 FB, 90 peak; up to 93 in spring; 76-79 CB; 79-80 CU; 6-3, 185 pounds

263. Palm Beach State (FL) CC SO RHP Brandon Welch: 90-94 FB, 96 peak; plus 84-87 SL; usable CB; 83-85 CU; good athlete; 6-1, 180 pounds

264. LHP Max Tishman (Lawrence Academy HS, Massachusetts): 86-89 FB, 91 peak FB; 86-88 two-seamer; good CU; 77-80 SL; CU; 6-2, 170 pounds

265. LHP Colin Rodgers (Parkview Baptist HS, Louisiana): 87-91 FB, 92-93 peak; good 75-79 CB; good 84-85 SL; 80-81 CU; 6-0, 180 pounds; another source had 78-80 SL as really good pitch; solid CU with plus upside

266. 3B Alex Raburn (Jordan HS, North Carolina): good speed; great athlete; good arm; good defensive tools; can also hold his own in CF

267. 3B Joe DeCarlo (Garnet Valley HS, Pennsylvania): plus bat speed; strong arm; physically strong, so present power shows up; plus defensive tools; Uggla comp; 86-89 FB; 81 CB; 80 SL; 6-1, 200 pounds

268. San Diego rJR RHP Calvin Drummond: 89-92 FB, only occasional 94 peak; 85-87 cutter; good 75-79 kCB; good 83-84 CU; when on, the 81-83 SL is a good pitch; 6-2, 200 pounds

269. Washington rJR RHP Aaron West: 89-93 FB, 94-95 peak; good mid-80s SL that is inconsistent; good CU; Tommy John survivor; stuff has never quite matched with results, but has way more upside than your typical mid-round (10+) college arm; 6-1, 200 pounds

270. Miami JR RHP EJ Encinosa: had him originally with a 87-91 FB with sink, 94 high school peak but hadn’t seen it in a while, instead peaking at 91-92; once committed to bullpen, velocity shot back up – now sits 94-95, and has hit 98 in 2012; no matter the velocity, the fastball remains an excellent pitch – very consistent plus-plus sink; plus low-80s SL; good, but inconsistent CU; reliever all the way (and likely not a closer), but a good one all the same; 6-4, 235 pounds

271. Rice JR RHP Tyler Duffey: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good 79-82 CU; good two-seamer with above-average sink; hard 78-83 CB; average mid-80s SL that flashes plus; 6-3, 210 pounds

272. 2B Travis Maezes (Pioneer HS, Michigan): above-average arm; good speed; could catch; really strong hit tool; cold weather version of Avery Romero; 6-0, 190 pounds

273. Evansville SS Eric Stamets: steady defender at SS, but could be even better at 2B if a team wants to go that route; well-rounded skill set highlighted by really good speed; great baseball instincts; easy player to like because he knows what he is – you won’t see many fly balls to the warning track or mile high pop-ups because Stamets understands his offensive game is about speed, speed, and more speed; 6-0, 185 pounds

274. Washington JR C Chase Anselment: above-average arm; good approach; above-average power; like so many others in this class, Anselment has seen extensive time at a position other than catcher – in his case, he’s played a lot of RF for the Huskies; the high rate of failure for prep catchers has me thinking that the smart way to do it is to sit back and poach the one-time high school stars who do their developing in college – Mike Zunino is Exhibit A, but Anselment, Andrew Susac, Jonathan Walsh, and Dane Phillips all qualify; notes from Anselment’s prep days: “not known for his defensive talent, but should be middle of the order impact bat if he enrolls at school as expected; could be better suited as a big armed RF; Washington commit with plenty of projection left in his game”; 6-0, 210 pounds

275. Orange Coast CC SO C Stefan Sabol: premium athlete; plus arm strength, but sloppy throwing motion hinders utilization; plus raw power that hasn’t quite manifested yet in-game; potential above-average to plus hit tool, swing works with plenty of bat speed; transfer from Oregon; recovering from hamate injury; also has experience at 3B and in OF; 6-1, 200 pounds

276. Louisville rJR RHP Justin Amlung: 88-91 FB, 93-94 peak; good sink on FB; good 78-82 SL; good 80-82 CU; also shows 75-78 CB; everything down in zone; smart pitcher; good deception; Brady Rodgers often gets the comp, but I see Amlung as this year’s version of a poor man’s Mike Leake; 6-0, 180 pounds

277. Wake Forest JR LHP Tim Cooney: 87-90 FB, 92-93 peak; FB more consistently in upper range of velocity in 2012 (89-92); had pitchability reputation coming into year, but FB command wasn’t sharp enough to really warrant the label – now it is; much improved 84-87 cutter is a really good pitch; good CU; good CB that comes and goes; good is the operative word with Cooney, a really well-rounded, smart pitcher who gets without a plus pitch by skillfully mixing four pitches for strikes out of deceptive arm slot; could be a back end starter in time; 6-3, 200 pounds

278. Louisville JR RHP Matt Koch: sits 90-92, 93-95 peak FB; promising 79-83 SL; 75 CB; 83 CU flashes plus; leans on FB/SL combo more as the SL has matured into above-average pitch; up to 94-95 FB much more consistently in 2012, new peak of 97 out of bullpen; good athlete; I was down on Koch coming into the year, but he’s really grown on me – I think he has the stuff to start in the pros; 6-3, 205 pounds

279. Georgia Tech JR RHP Luke Bard: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; was up to a more consistent 95-97 before his early season lat injury; good 80 SL gives him the second pitch needed to eventually pitch in a big league bullpen; 6-3, 200 pounds

280. LHP Tyler Pike (Winter Haven HS, Florida): 87-90 FB, 92-93 peak, but has dipped as low as 85 in some starts; 70-74 CB, up to 77-80 and more effective now; plus 77-83 CU that could stand to be more consistent game to game; good overall command with chance for more; plus deception; plus pitchability; occasional average 67-69 CB; not much development left, but as solid lefty who knows how to pitch could find a home as a back of the rotation starter in time; 6-1, 185 pounds

281. RHP Felipe Perez (Fairmont Prep HS, California): 88-91 FB that really moves, 92-93 peak; plus FB movement; good 74-78 CB; CU has plus upside; 79-80 SL; 6-3, 195 pounds

282. Washington SR OF Caleb Brown: extremely raw college senior who has improved a ton with the new coaching staff at Washington; legit speed, arm, and defense in CF; had scores of believers back when he was still a lump of clay, but many have forgotten about him over the years – he’s really talented and finally beginning to figure things out; 6-2, 225 pounds

283. LSU SR SS Austin Nola: above-average arm; very good defender – one of the few college shortstops expected to have little difficulty sticking at the position professionally; slightly above-average speed; gap power; it may be a stretch to peg Nola as a future starting big league shortstop, but he has the range, actions, and hands to play the position defensively at the next level with at least the prospect of having just enough bat to make it; jumped 17 rounds from high school to junior season (48th to 31st round) – in good position to make at least another 17 round jump in his senior season (31st to 14th round); 5-11, 185 pounds

284. South Florida SR LHP Andrew Barbosa: 87-91 FB, 93 peak; good 79-80 CU; flashes plus 75 CB; the most likely potential pro starting pitcher to come out of USF’s intriguing hard throwing 2012 draft class; 6-8, 235 pounds

285. South Carolina rJR RHP Matt Price: normally I start by writing about the fastball, but I really, really like his low-80s SL (82-84) so that gets top billing; also throws a softer CB; 89-92 FB, up to 94 out of bullpen; had strange, brief peak of mid- to upper-90s during brief stretch in 2011, but more of a low-90s guy; solid third pitch in 79-81 CU; experiment as starting pitcher went more or less as expected (i.e. not great), but Price has recaptured his magic in the bullpen; he’s more of an all-time great college pitcher than an exciting pro prospect, but he’s not just a college guy, either – there’s a big league bullpen out there that could surely use a competitor like Price; 6-2, 215 pounds

286. North Carolina JR RHP Michael Morin: at his best, he sits 88-92 FB, but can crank it up to 95 in the bullpen; velocity has dropped to upper-80s this spring – could be injury, could be fatigue, could be increased emphasis on establishing two-seamer; bread and butter has been and will always be plus to plus-plus CU, one of college baseball’s best singular pitches; average SL that has improved a great deal since high school; good athlete; despite the loss in velocity, I remain a believer in Morin’s solid middle relief (or better) upside; 6-4, 200 pounds

287. Clemson JR RHP Kevin Brady: for too long threw a too straight 90-92 FB that touched 94-96, but much improved late life in 2012; good FB command; above-average, but inconsistent 80-83 SL; once flashed plus CB, but ditched pitch for a long stretch before going back to it early in 2012; nondescript CU has gotten better, but is average at best pitch; debate over whether or not he fits best as starter or reliever professionally – health concerns and a lack of a developed third pitch seem to point towards the bullpen, though perhaps the switch comes later rather than sooner; 6-3, 220 pounds

288. RHP Brady Lail (Bingham HS, Utah): 86-90 FB, 92 peak; good athlete; good 74-77 kCB; very good command, especially on breaking ball; shows CU, but still a raw third pitch; 6-3, 180 pounds

289. Southeast Missouri State SR SS Kenton Parmley: plus arm; good defender; another player who has put up consistent strong collegiate numbers who deserves a shot in pro ball despite not being super toolsy; 6-1, 200 pounds

290. 3B Danny Rosenbaum (Chestnut Hill Academy HS, Pennsylvania): love his approach; strong arm; good defensive tools; 6-1, 200 pounds

291. 2B Austin Schotts (Centennial HS, Texas): plus-plus speed; good pop; average at best arm; 5-11, 180 pounds; similar player to Spencer Edwards

292. 2B Jesmuel Valentin Diaz (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy): average or slight above-average power; strong arm; no problems with high velocity; average speed; 5-10, 175 pounds

293. 2B Jalen Goree (Bibb County HS, Alabama): good defender; good athlete; gap power; average speed; average at best arm; Brandon Phillips comp; 5-9, 190 pounds

294. Southeastern Louisiana JR RHP Stefan Lopez: 89-94 FB, 95 peak; good FB command; relies heavily on FB; good 84 SL that he should use more of; might throw one CU per outing, if that; recovered from torn ACL in 2011; I’m on an island with this one, but I think pro coaching and continued progress as he heals from his knee injury could turn Lopez into a viable late-inning big league pitcher, potentially a closer; 6-2, 190 pounds

295. Morningside (IA) JR RHP Storm Throne: 90-93 FB, 95-97 peak; good command of above-average 72-74 CB; shows CU; keeps the ball down; good athlete; 6-7, 240 pounds

296. RHP Karl Keglovits (Nazareth HS, Pennsylvania): 87-89 FB with good sink; can get four-seamer up to 90-92; good FB command; 72-73 CB; 78-80 CU; 6-6, 230 pounds

297. LHP Jack Wynkoop (Cape Henry Collegiate, Virginia): 85-89 FB; 74-78 CB; good 77-80 SL; 80-81 CU; plus command of a four-pitch mix is nothing to overlook for a high school senior; 6-6, 190 pounds

298. LHP Jordan Minch (Highland HS, Indiana): 86-89 FB, 91 peak; good CU; emerging low-70s CB; good athlete; good command; 6-3, 180 pounds

299. RHP Curt Britt (Scotland HS, North Carolina): 89-91 FB, 92 peak; good mid-70s CB up to 75-77; solid low-80s CU; 6-2, 215 pounds, but looks shorter and heavier

300. Polk State (FL) JC SO RHP Alec Asher: 90-94 FB, 95-97 peak; improved SL; improved CB; in much better physical condition; holds velocity well; Tommy John survivor; 6-4, 225 pounds

301. RHP Trent Thornton (Ardrey Kell HS, North Carolina): 86-89 FB, 91 peak; 78-82 CU; 74-79 CB; strong outfield prospect as well: good power upside, good speed, and good range; 6-0, 155 pounds

302. RHP Matt Withrow (Midland Christian HS, Texas): 94 peak; SL flashes plus; 6-3, 210 pounds

303. RHP Tucker Simpson (Oxford HS, Alabama): 88-92 FB, 94 peak; velocity down in 2012; good sink on FB; good 71-76 CB; 73-78 CU; 78 SL; 6-7, 225 pounds

304. Wichita State rJR 1B Johnny Coy: very quick bat; plus athlete; good speed for his size; strong arm; plus raw power potential, but has yet to really tap into it, strong 2012 season notwithstanding; too aggressive at plate, swings at too many bad balls with way too many swings and misses; a long shot to ever fulfill his once lofty promise, but the fact that he once had such promise is also what makes him so damn enticing still; life is too complicated to ever say a player should or shouldn’t have signed a pro contract from the outside looking in, but one has to wonder what type of career Coy could have had if he devoted himself full-time to professional ball out of high school; 6-7, 225 pounds

305. Southern Illinois rJR 1B Chris Serritella: despite longish swing, still shows good bat speed capable of hitting big velocity; when everything is working, his swing is one of the prettiest in amateur ball; plus power potential; above-average defender; strong arm; slow even by first baseman standards; strong hit tool; heard a scout compare him developmentally to current Diamondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt during his college days; recovered from broken hamate injury with little to no apparent loss in power; like almost every other player on this list, the road to a starting first base job is paved with obstacles – you never want to rule out players with his kind of raw power, but the most likely positive outcome is a bench bat/platoon player; 6-3, 200 pounds

306. Florida State JR SS Justin Gonzalez: average speed, maybe a touch more; good range; fastball hitter only, but raw power is very intriguing; good athlete; good arm; question has and will continue to be about his hit tool – all of the other tools are fine, but his value hinges on how much contact he can make in pro ball; has more upside than many players above him, but also a higher risk of flaming out before AA; 6-2, 200 pounds

307. Georgia Southern SR 2B Eric Phillips: solid all-around skill set with no obvious weaknesses to his game; versatile defender who can step in and play a fine SS in a pinch, also has experience at 3B and could also be tried in OF; 6-2, 200 pounds

308. Pepperdine JR 2B Joe Sever: good speed; above-average pop; inconsistent defender, but has improved; has made a concerted effort to improve his approach (shorter to ball, more selective early in counts, better two-strike discipline) and the numbers bear it out; underrated prospect, but, like many on the list, will have to answer questions about defensive viability on the left side of the infield down the line

309. 1B Zach Ratcliff (Columbus Academy, Ohio): good athlete; solid speed; above-average power; 6-4, 225 pounds

310. Kentucky JR LHP Taylor Rogers: 87-92 FB; good 75-80 CB; better 77 CU; 83 SL; good command; similar prospect to Texas LHP Hoby Milner; good mix of projection, polish, and present stuff; 6-3, 170 pounds

311. LHP Cole Irvin (Servite HS, California): 85-86 FB, have now heard upper-80s; 87-89 FB; good 72-75 CB; good 78-81 CU; 6-4, 180 pounds

312. Orange Coast CC (CA) rFR LHP Bijan Rademacher: 90-94 FB; good SL; fresh arm; good athlete; really good arm; good bat speed; CF range; Cal State Fullerton transfer; 6-1, 185 pounds

313. RHP Zach Quintana (Arbor View HS, Nevada): 88-91 FB, 92-95 peak; good 77-80 SL that could use some tightening, also called good mid-70s CB; underdeveloped 78-82 CU; doesn’t really hide the ball that well; 6-0, 190 pounds

314. OF Christian Dicks (Providence HS, Florida): plus speed; great athlete; great range in CF; pesky hitter, lots of foul balls; average arm; raw; 6-0, 190 pounds

315. OF Matthew Goodson (Oxford HS, Alabama): good CF range; above-average speed; strong arm; 6-0, 210 pounds

316. OF Rock Rucker (Russell County HS, Alabama): raw as a hitter, but shows a quick bat; average speed; RF arm; 6-5, 225 pounds

317. RHP Jake Pintar (San Juan Hills HS, California): 85-90 FB, closer to 88-89; 69-71 CB needs work, a little firmer in recent looks at 71-74; good athlete; 6-7, 190 pounds

318. LHP Troy Conyers (El Capitan HS, California): 86-90 FB; every FB out of his hand moves; mid-70s CU; loads of deception in delivery, submarine style; might be a super-LOOGY in long run

319. Arizona State JR RHP Brady Rodgers: 88-91 FB, can dial it up to 92-93 when he really needs it; good FB command, but real claim to fame is plus control; solid 72-75 CB that should be his best pitch professionally; also throws a slightly above-average 80-84 SL; could say the same about his 78-82 CU; will also mix in a cutter; good athlete; can be described fairly easily in less than ten words: plus control of four more or less average pitches; from a stuff standpoint reminds me some of former Georgia Tech RHP Mark Pope; 6-2, 200 pounds

320. OF BJ Boyd (Palo Alto HS, California): plus (60) speed; average raw power, but still figuring out how to use it; above-average hit tool; good athlete; 5-11, 200 pounds; L/L

321. OF Jamal Martin (William T. Dwyer HS, Florida): knows how to hit; really quick hands; great athlete; above-average speed; gap power; 6-0, 180 pounds

322. C Taylor Hawkins (Carl Albert HS, Oklahoma): big present power; good athlete; average speed; could also be tried at 3B and OF; 6-0, 200 pounds

323. C Sam Ayala (LaJolla County Day School, California): good speed for catcher; good arm; above-average power upside; good athlete; 6-2, 200 pounds

324. C Blake Hickman (Simeon HS, Illinois): plus arm strength (94 off mound); plus power upside, but really raw hitter; defense needs tons of work; good athlete; solid speed; 6-4, 210 pounds

325. Kentucky JR OF Brian Adams: plus-plus runner; plus athlete, arguably the best in this entire class; plus raw power; average arm; has the elite-level tools of a blue chip prep prospect, but the lack of attention paid to his baseball career (he’s a former football guy) puts him way behind where he should be developmentally; so much is talked about the scouting side of prospecting baseball talent, but Adams success or failure as a pro will be determined by the player development staff of whatever team takes the chance on him; circumstances and, let’s be frank, luck play a huge part in the outcome of any player subject to the draft – if it’s the right team with the right staff that selects him then he could really take off, but if it isn’t a good fit then we’ll look back and wonder what might have been; 6-4, 220 pounds

326. SS Mikey White (Spain Park HS, Alabama): good strength; should be able to stick at shortstop based on defensive actions; really strong arm; swing works with offspeed as well; no plus tool, but solid across board; can play all over

327. SS Landon Lassiter (North Davidson HS, North Carolina): good defensive tools; good arm

328. SS Zach Green (Jesuit HS, California): good defensive instincts, first step is always right on; strong hit tool; average speed; average at best arm; seen as a future 3B, but not sure he arm for it – think he can stay at SS anyway; 6-3, 205 pounds

329. Texas A&M SR RHP Ross Stripling: at his best he has sat 89-94 FB with sink, but most recently has been clocked closer to 86-88, 91-92 peak; plus 74-78 CB that is one of the best of its kind in college ball; average 76-80 CU that he can throw for strikes, but doesn’t get many swings and misses on; CU has been up to 83 on occasion, but is more effective in upper-70s; plus FB command; good athlete; plus control; 6-3, 190 pounds

330. Marshall rJR RHP Joe Church: 91-94 FB, 96 peak; plus breaking ball; only threw 18.1 innings in three years before 2012 as he’s dealt with a string of arm issues, including recovery from Tommy John surgery; healthy now, he’s got the two big-time pitches needed to someday pitch in a big league bullpen; 6-2, 200 pounds

331. Purdue JR RHP Nick Wittgren: 89-92 FB, 93-94 peak; slightly above-average 75-80 CB; average 77-78 CU; has the command, athleticism, and stuff to make the transition from college closer to starting pitcher if his pro team wants to go that route; 6-3, 200 pounds

332. Texas State JR RHP Travis Ballew: 88-95 FB; good low-80s SL that flashes plus; improved CU; effective two-seamer; size and arm action may push teams to put him in relief, but he’s come far enough with his changeup that he deserves a chance to start in pros; 6-0, 160 pounds

333. Howard JC (TX) rSO RHP Reid Scoggins: mid-90s FB, 97-98 peak; rumors of 100 peak, but hasn’t done it often enough/in front of the right people to make it a reliable number; Tommy John survivor; shows CU and CB, but both currently raw; best current secondary is 84-87 SL; command came back after surgery and his game really took off; 6-3, 205 pounds

334. Arizona JR RHP Kurt Heyer: 86-90, 91-92 peak FB with good sink; has hit as high as 94 in past and might be able to crank it up there in relief, but otherwise not likely to see those lofty heights after some pretty intense college use; promising 77-80 SL with average upside; mid-70s CU with upside; shows CB; nice deception in funky delivery; for being typecasted as a pitchability college righthander, Heyer’s FB command has remained inconsistent; averaged an incredible 8+ innings per start in 2012; 6-2, 210 pounds

335. Cal State Fullerton JR RHP Dylan Floro: 86-90, 92-93 peak FB with great sink; sits most often 87-88 but with true plus life and good command; 76-82 SL with plus potential that he leans on heavily; very nice sinking 80-82 CU; will also mix in mid-70s CB that can run into his slider when thrown harder; fits in nicely with large pool of potential fifth starters/middle relievers; interesting prospect who has gone backwards since entering school yet still has the chance of reaching the big leagues in some capacity due to his good enough stuff, deceptive delivery, above-average control, and the hope he can reclaim some of what made him such a big-time prospect out of high school; 6-3, 185 pounds

336. Maine JR RHP Jeff Gibbs: at his best he sits mid-90s FB, 94-96 peak; has also shown plus SL; iffy command; iffy control; velocity has been down some in 2012 (88-92 FB, 94 peak), but good upper-70s to low-80s SL has remained a strong second pitch; has also utilized average 78-83 CU more often; story on Gibbs has remained the same dating back to his high school days: big league stuff, independent league command and control; 6-4, 215 pounds

337. Grand Canyon (AZ) JR RHP Brady Wager: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; flashes plus mid-80s SL, never worse than average and often above-average; emerging CU that is usable, could be better in time; 6-2, 205 pounds

338. Oregon State JR LHP Matt Boyd: 87-89 FB, 91-92 peak; good 82-83 CU; good 73-76 CB with plus upside; funky windup gives good deception; plus command; in a world of more creative baseball management, he could be bullpen ace – has shown he can handle multiple inning appearances and get both lefties and righthanders out; 6-3, 220 pounds

339. San Francisco JR LHP Elliot Waterman: mid-80s FB; now up to sitting 88-91 with 93-94 peak; nice CU with plus command; average SL; great deception; 6-5, 230 pounds

340. Oregon JR LHP Christian Jones: missed 2012 season with TJ surgery, but would have challenged for the top college lefty spot if healthy; 88-91 FB with plus life, 94 peak; good command; biting CB with SL action is plus pitch; 84 CU; if he gives any indication that he is willing to sign and continue his rehab with a pro medical staff, a team should be all over him somewhere between the 5^th and 15^th rounds; 6-3, 210 pounds

341. 3B Kevin Bradley (Hopewell HS, New Jersey): strong arm; could catch; good power upside; strong hit tool; 6-2, 200 pounds

342. TCU rJR 3B Jantzen Witte: still has many who question his upside with the bat, but all he’s done is hit and hit and hit; has always maintained a patient approach and, for me, a solid line drive swing; one of the draft’s best defensive players at any position with the tools to be one of the best defenders in professional baseball once he signs contract; underrated name, both literally and figuratively; 6-1, 200 pounds

343. Louisburg (NC) JC rSO 3B Steve Nyisztor: plus athlete; has played SS in the past, but, despite showing better than expected actions at the spot, profiles best as 3B as pro; plus arm; plus defensive tools, but still erratic in footwork, which has led to inconsistent throws; gap power at present, above-average raw power; good speed; teams will have to really have a clear idea of who he is as a person before investing a top ten round pick on him; has the chance to be a big league starter at third base or perhaps an offensively-minded infield backup; 6-4, 200 pounds

344. C Matt Fultz (Summit West HS, Missouri): quick bat; good power; good defender; good athlete; strong; power is there, question is contact; average arm; 6-1, 210 pounds

345. C Collin Yelich (Westlake Village HS, California): plus arm, both in terms of strength and accuracy; strong hit tool; makes a lot of contact; 6-3, 185 pounds

346. UCLA JR C Tyler Heineman: mature approach to hitting, simply doesn’t waste at bats; strong defensive tools, already a steady defender behind plate; above-average to plus arm, strong and accurate; good agility behind plate, underrated athlete; far from a big bat, but should always hit enough to get by; breakout junior season has stock on the rise; 6-0, 200 pounds

347. North Carolina SR C Jacob Stallings: outstanding defender; plus arm; big favorite last year who has scuffled some with the bat this year, but remains a potential backup catcher due to his great makeup, patience at the plate, and defensive ability

348. C Phildrick Llewellyn (Trinity Christian Academy, Florida): good athlete; really good speed for catcher; intriguing tools across board

349. Michigan State rJR 2B Ryan Jones: good speed; good approach; limited power upside; already a good defender at 2B and can also play 3B effectively; no standout tool, but easy to walk away impressed with him as a heady, instinctive ballplayer who does the little things right; 5-10, 170 rounds

350. Florida JR RHP Hudson Randall: 85-88 FB, 90 peak; great sinker/slider mix, everything down in zone, so he gets loads of groundballs when he’s going well; impressive upper-70s CU (79-81) with great arm action; good but inconsistent 74-77 CB; plus command on all pitches; average present 80-84 SL; 6-4, 220 pounds

351. Arkansas JR RHP DJ Baxendale: 87-92 FB, 93-94 peak; good FB movement; good 84-85 SL; solid 80-82 CU; really good 69-71 CB that is his best pitch; mid-80s cutter; stuff down in 2012: 86-89 much of season, offspeed not nearly as sharp; ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes gives him back of the rotation upside, but might be best served by becoming a primarily fastball/curveball reliever at the next level; 6-2, 190 pounds

352. Cuba LHP Onelki Garcia: 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; flashes plus CB; shows CU; 6-2, 220 pounds

353. Iowa Western CC SO 3B Damek Tomscha: plus-plus arm strength; good power; great athlete; 6-3, 220 pounds

354. Concordia (MN) SR 3B Bryan Lippincott: strong hit tool; good athlete; could profile as four-corner (1B/3B/LF/RF) type defensively if he doesn’t stay at the hot corner; plus arm; great approach; get really high marks for makeup and preparedness; has put up consistently great numbers and not exactly a slouch in the tools department – he’s a certifiable draft sleeper; 6-4, 210 pounds

355. Spartanburg Methodist (SC) JC FR 3B Bruce Caldwell: gap power; strong arm; good athlete; currently at SS; tough to choice between the ultra-productive Caldwell and the more projectable Codey McElroy – the two prospects are very different, but close in overall value; 5-10, 185 pounds

356. Weatherford JC (TX) FR RHP Cameron Cox: 88-91 FB, 93 peak; good breaking ball; advanced CU; good command; 6-4, 200 pounds

357. Gonzaga SR OF Royce Bolinger: plus professional RF-ready arm; above-average defender; average speed that gets pretty good when underway; big raw power with a swing that allows him to use it; arm is strong enough (95 peak off mound) that he could be tried on mound down the line; good athlete; has struggled to hit over the years, but big senior season has some thinking something has finally clicked at the plate; others put less stock in 200 senior at bats – I’d defer to area scouts on him, and would be happy to take him earlier than current industry consensus if the local guys fought for him; great instincts in outfield, can play CF in a pinch despite lack of prototypical CF foot speed – this gives him added value as potential power hitting fourth outfielder/platoon bat; 6-2, 200 pounds

358. Texas-Arlington JR OF Preston Beck: good power; average speed; plus arm strength; arm is very accurate as well; good athlete; fun fact: threw one perfect inning in 2011 with 2 strikeouts; pre-season FAVORITE who continues to produce and flash big league tools; 6-2, 190 pounds

359. TCU SR OF Jason Coats: plus athlete; very strong; special bat speed; decent to average foot speed; average arm; plus raw power; corner outfielder with good range; pitch recognition could make or break him – has more or less broken him to this point, at least as far as national publications are concerned; in a tough spot as a college senior limited to LF who has been expected to hit enough to be worth it, but hasn’t done it; I think of him as an unfairly forgotten man who hasn’t been nearly as bad, from both a scouting and performance standpoint, as you’d hear some people tell it; 6-2, 200 pounds

360. Tulane SR C Jeremy Schaffer: plus power potential; strong enough arm; defense is raw and has been for years, but has made enough progress to at least be adequate (slightly below-average, really) behind plate, thought he won’t ever be anything more than that professionally; for all his defensive shortcomings, Shaffer does have the reputation of calling a good game and working well with a variety of pitching styles; as a bat-first catching prospect, he compares to a less-publicized version of Miami’s Peter O’Brien – also included in that family are Ronnie Freeman, Richard Stock, and Brandon Miller; 6-1, 210 pounds

361. Southeastern Louisiana JR 2B Brock Hebert: strong hit tool; not much power; good speed; strong arm; leadoff profile but can get too aggressive at times; uses whole field well; great instincts; above-average range, also a capable SS; has evolved as a hitter over the years – he’s now much more disciplined and has learned when to and when not to be aggressive; prime candidate to hit the ground running in pro ball this summer and have people wondering how he fell as far as he did in the draft; 5-9, 170 pounds

362. 2B Joe Munoz (Los Altos HS, California): good athlete; strong arm; above-average speed; really impressive defensive tools; not super toolsy overall, but gets it done defensively; no standout tool, but good all over; 6-3, 180 pounds

363. 2B Nick Basto (Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida): strong arm, but best utilized at second; some think he sticks at SS

364. 2B Tim Lopes (Edison HS, California): really good defender at second; strong arm; plus speed; emerging hit tool; has a chance to stick at SS; no raw power; consistently plays above his tools

365. OF Zach Gibbons (Saguaro HS, Arizona): solid in CF; above-average arm; line drive swing; some pop; no standout tool, but steady across board

366. OF D’Vone McClure (Jacksonville HS, Arkansas): average arm; above-average or better speed; great athlete; quick bat; good range in corner, average in center; 6-3, 190 pounds

367. Alabama SR OF Taylor Dugas: advanced idea of strike zone; above-average speed; good athlete; gap power; average at best arm; little power; good CF range; leadoff profile; earned one of my all-time all-caps FAVORITE designations going back to his sophomore season; drills high velocity with no problem; smart on bases; as much as I love him, I understand he has a limited ceiling and will have to continually drastically outperform more physically talented players to keep moving up through a system; 5-7, 175 pounds

368. Kentucky JR LHP Jerad Grundy: 87-90 FB, 92-94 peak; 77-82 SL that has improved greatly; really like his 80-81 sinking CU; transfer from Miami and Heartland CC; 6-1, 200 pounds

369. Missouri JR RHP Eric Anderson: prior to tearing his labrum sat 90-93 with FB; hard SL with cut fastball movement; plus CU; easy mechanics; great athlete; has worked his way back and is now throwing upper-80s (getting as high as 90-92 on his best days), an impressive feat after he sat mostly low- to mid-80s this past summer; still throws a good breaking ball (SL), but not yet with as much pre-injury juice; CU has remained a really good pitch; above-average command both before and after his injury; 6-4, 220 pounds

370. Mississippi rSR RHP RJ Hively: 88-92 FB with late life, rare 94-95 peak; excellent 80-85 SL that he leans on; 79-81 CU; loves to sink and cut fastball; well-traveled player who should be relatively quick riser; 6-2, 205 pounds

371. LSU JR RHP Nick Goody: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; promising 78-82 breaking ball that falls somewhere between slider and power curve; good deception in delivery helps his fastball play up; has the small sample size of any one-year college reliever, but really hard to find fault with his 2012 performances (below); 6-0, 190 pounds

372. College of Charleston SR OF Marty Gantt: gap power with the wheels (above-average to plus speed) to leg out extra base hits; strong arm that profiles in any outfield spot; good, instinctual defender who isn’t afraid to get dirty chasing down fly balls; five words sum him up best: just knows how to hit; some guys have a knack for consistently barreling up – Gantt hits like he was born to do it; the splash of cold water comes when remembering that he’s an experienced college senior and a bit of a tweener from an offensive standpoint, but there’s no reason he can’t at least make it as a high level backup/platoon bat if he gets a few breaks along the way; 6-1, 180 pounds

373. Central Florida JR OF Ronnie Richardson: plus athlete; plus arm; plus runner; potential for some sneaky pop – he’s got really quick wrists and uses his lower body better than most; plus defensive tools in CF; generally viewed as a really good college player with little chance to amount to much professionally due to lack of physicality (he’s 5-6, 170 pounds), questionable swing mechanics, and, in turn, a hit tool that leaves most unimpressed, but, I don’t care – I’ve loved Richardson since he stepped on campus and will continue to tout him as a potential big leaguer who can run, defend, throw, and, thanks in part to a smaller than normal strike zone, really get on base

374. Virginia JR OF Reed Gragnani: good present gap power, could start knocking some over the fence in time; intriguing tools across the board, but hasn’t really been on the field enough to make the kind of impact many, myself included, thought he’d make on the college game; can also moonlight as a capable infielder – depending on how highly teams view his bat, it wouldn’t shock me to see a team move him back to either SS, 2B, or 3B; haven’t heard any indication one way or another about which way he is leaning heading into the draft, but Gragnani strikes me as the kind of player who could either really take off in pro ball or increase his draft stock by leaps and bounds with a huge, healthy senior season; 6-0, 175 pounds

375. Kutztown (PA) SR 3B Shayne Houck: above-average hit tool; big raw power; can handle 3B and LF – stock goes way up if a team believes in him as a defender; 6-1, 200 pounds

376. Eastern Oklahoma State JC FR 3B Codey McElroy: strong arm; good defensive tools, currently at SS; interesting upside with bat, especially in power department – easy to dream on his power coming around with a long, lean 6-6, 215 pound frame

377. Louisburg SO 3B Zach Houchins: strong hit tool; strong arm; power upside; quick bat; love his approach; uses whole field well and hits consistent line drives; overshadowed somewhat by bigger name teammate Steve Nyisztor, but no secret that some scouts have come away from seeing both play preferring the less-heralded Houchins; like Nyisztor, Houchins will have to answer questions from pro teams about his off-field actions

378. Central Florida JR RHP Roman Madrid: 89-92 FB, 94 peak; good 84-87 SL; rock solid big league middle relief prospect – he’ll never be considered a sexy prospect, but if he keeps doing what he does then he’ll get the last laugh as a big league reliever; 6-0, 200 pounds

379. Mississippi JR LHP Dylan Chavez: 89-92 FB; good 79-82 SL; 76-78 CU; 74-75 CB; good deception in delivery; like teammate RJ Hively, he is a well-traveled young arm who should transition well to life in the pros; 6-3, 190 pounds

380. JR RHP Jason Jester: couldn’t pitch in 2012 after being declared academically ineligible, but the latest rumors indicate he wants to give it the old college try once again in 2013; a smart team should still take a chance on him, assuming he is willing to sign, as his stuff is electric: 88-93 FB (90-94 as reliever), 96 peak; good SL with plus upside; great command; 5-10, 180 pounds

381. UCLA rFR RHP Eric Jaffe: 90-95 FB that moves; plus 77-82 CB; has shown interesting 84-86 CU this past spring; disaster of a season leaves him a 100% speculative selection at this point – his signability isn’t supposed to be an issue, but it would be a surprise to see him drafted high enough to make it worth his while unless he really, really wants to play pro ball; 6-4, 230 pounds

382. San Jose State JR RHP Zach Jones: 93-95 FB, 97-98 peak; FB moves; flashes good SL; iffy command; iffy control; profiles as reliever all the way, which is unfortunate because he swings a mean bat (2011: .316/.383/.458 – 16 BB/30 K – 155 AB)

383. Meridian (MS) CC SO C Wade Wass: strong arm; good defender; above-average bat speed; has tapped into his considerable power upside in a big way; reputation of free swinger didn’t match the reality of his 2012 season, though it would come as no surprise to hear that he was routinely pitched around; 6-0, 210 pounds

384. Salt Lake (UT) CC SO OF Braden Anderson: plus-plus speed; strong arm; CF range; 6-0, 200 pounds

385. OF Johnny Sewald (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada): plus speed; leadoff approach; little power; great range in CF; average at best arm; 5-11, 165 pounds

386. Jacksonville JR OF Dan Gulbransen: good bat speed; fantastic approach to hitting – watching him work deep counts, spit on pitchers’ strikes, and driving his pitch to the gap is a lot of fun; approach remains consistent with each at bat, no matter the situation; playable range in CF, but average speed, arm, and power upside makes him a bit of a tweener on the whole; I like Gulbransen more than most – he’s a high floor, fourth outfielder-type with the chance for more; 5-11, 205 pounds

387. Michigan State JR OF Torsten Boss: moved from 3B to CF this year with generally positive results; good power; uses whole field as a hitter – really difficult to pitch to him when he’s on; above-average speed; plus arm strength; better fit in outfield for me personally – he could be really good in a corner in time; has also seen some time at 2B; defensive versatility and steady improvement as a hitter make him a really solid college position player with a relatively clear path to the big leagues, assuming continued good health and progression of tools to skills; 6-0, 200 pounds

388. Rutgers SR OF Patrick Kivlehan: plus athlete; has made really quick and impressive return to diamond after four years playing football; above-average speed; above-average raw power; has experience at 3B, but make more sense to let him run and throw in the outfield professionally; there isn’t much precedent for a prospect like Kivlehan, so following his career through the minors will be a lot of fun; 6-2, 210 pounds

389. St. John’s SR SS Matt Wessinger: above-average speed that he uses really, really well; better defender at second, but enough of a chance to stick at SS that I feel good about including him here; good arm; good athlete; solid pop for a middle infielder; strong utility possibility going forward; I liken him to a northern version of LSU SS Austin Nola; 6-0, 180 pounds

390. Fresno State JR RHP Justin Haley: low-90s FB, 95 peak; good breaking ball; emerging CU; too well-known to be a sleeper, but still a really good, really underrated three-pitch pitcher with the chance to start in the big leagues someday who will likely be drafted lower than he should be; 6-6, 225 pounds

391. Oregon State JR 1B Danny Hayes: makes the kind of consistent loud contact that has you thinking he was put on this planet to hit baseballs; doubles power with chance for more; has also seen time at 3B, where is generally regarded as below-average at the moment but could be pushed there if that’s the way his drafting team wants to go – I think allowing him to get healthy and focus on first base only could do wonders for his already potent bat; really tough player who deserves a lot of credit for playing through torn labrum in shoulder this year; 6-5, 200 pounds

392. Kennesaw State JR C Ronnie Freeman: very strong hit tool, a rarity for a backstop; above-average raw power, currently wears out the gaps; average at best arm, but makes up for it by being an instinctive, smart catcher; can get too aggressive at plate, which I think negates a big strength, but have been told coaches prefer him expanding his zone in order to look for something he can drive (i.e. it is alright to sacrifice some patience for power); good enough defender, but hardly a standout – his bat will carry him as an offense-first backstop; 6-1, 190 pounds

393. Rice JR 2B Michael Ratterree: above-average raw power, though it is currently mostly to gaps; average runner; versatile defender with extensive experience in the outfield; question that has followed him for years goes back to his defense – he may or may not stick in infield long-term; for me, his actual defense (hands, actions, range) all work well at second, but it is the accuracy of his arm that will make or break him; smart hitter; good athlete; stronger than most middle infield prospects; 6-1, 195 pounds

394. Fresno State SR RHP Taylor Garrison: 89-93 FB, 94 peak; good command; good SL with cutter action; above-average CU; also throws CB; 5-10, 160 pounds

395. Connecticut SR RHP David Fischer: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; average CU; good SL that breaks like a CB at times; lost velocity last season, but found it in a hurry in 2012: reportedly up to 95 at times; similar prospect to Cincinnati RHP Zach Isler; 6-5, 200 pounds

396. Texas A&M JR RHP Kyle Martin: 88-91 FB, 92-95 peak; lost some zip on his four-seam FB this spring, so went almost exclusively with 86-89 two-seamers with plus sink the past few months; inconsistent breaking ball that flashes plus, looks like a SL some days and a CB others; great deception in his funky sidearm delivery; shows a mid-70s CU with some promise against lefties; 6-6, 215 pounds

397. Vanderbilt rJR RHP Will Clinard: 91-93 FB with good sink; above-average 84-86 SL; above-average to plus cutter; leans on fastball that moves (two-seamer/cutter) and that slider, so he could have a career as a mid-innings reliever who can come on and get a ground ball when needed; plus command; 6-4, 215 pounds

398. Cincinnati JR RHP Zach Isler: fairly generic high-80s FB as starter, but a revelation out of the bullpen: sinking 90-92 FB, 94-95 peak; good low-80s SL; raw CU he can likely ditch as he moves to bullpen professionally; 6-4, 240 pounds

399. Kansas JR RHP Tanner Poppe: 88-91 FB with late life (92-93 peak), but has reportedly hit 94-97 out of bullpen; solid 74 CB; 80 CU; loose and easy mechanics – looks like he’s just having a catch; good athlete who is way more projectable than many mid- to late-round possibilities; not sure what pro teams dislike about him that I don’t see, but the people in the know whom I’ve talked to about him are always surprised I mention him as a viable pro prospect; 6-5, 225 pounds

400. Manhattanville (NY) JR 3B Dan Fiorito: excellent defender; strong arm; intriguing bat with above-average power upside and plate discipline; big league body at 6-4, 215 pounds

401. Seward County (KS) JC SO 3B Jake Barrios: arm and range both fit nicely at SS presently, but likely 3B in long run as his body fills out; big power upside dating back to his LSU recruitment; 6-3, 200 pounds

402. Florida International SR 3B Mike Martinez: average at best defender who also has experience at 1B and corner OF spots; bat shows promise, but lack of defensive upside gives him the look of an offensive-first utility player at the next level; 6-0, 215 pounds

403. Stony Brook JR 2B Maxx Tissenbaum: great approach; strong hit tool with a short swing well-suited for hard contact; improving defender, but may lack speed to pay up the middle – I think he can stick at 2B, but am not sold he can get by on the left side of the infield, thus limiting his utility potential; 5-11, 190 pounds

404. Indiana State JR C Jeremy Lucas: good athlete; improved defender; mature approach; pre-season all-caps FAVORITE despite a midwestern source (a close friend who won’t mind me calling him out here) who told me Lucas was a “solid college catcher, nothing more”; 6-1, 200 pounds

405. Wichita State SR LHP Josh Smith: 85-88 FB, 90-91 peak; good sinker; solid 80-81 SL; excellent CU; above-average command; one of the draft’s underrated pitchability lefthanders with enough diversity in his repertoire to continue starting professionally – really strong senior sign; 6-3, 185 pounds

406. California JR LHP Justin Jones: at his best he sits 86-90 with a FB with plus life, 91-92 peak; very good 73-76 CB when he commands it; strong 77-81 CU that flashes plus; good 84 cutter; nice deception in delivery helps FB play up; velocity way down in 2012 due to what appeared to be inconsistencies finding his release point: mid-80s most games, 84-86 with 88 peak; one plus side in 2012: has shown an above-average 78-81 SL, though he often uses it at the expense of ignoring his curve; like a few of his college peers, there’s some gambling with Jones that his velocity will rebound professionally – even without it, he has enough fastball to go with his curve (his best secondary pitch for me), change, and cutter to carve out a useful niche in pro ball; 6-2, 190 pounds

407. Rice SR LHP Taylor Wall: upper-80s FB, peak 88; plus CU that he relies on heavily; average at best CB and SL, though a new grip on his slider has made it a potentially better third pitch than his curve, which was once ahead; repeatable mechanics; 6-2, 200 pounds

408. Baylor JR LHP Josh Turley: 85-89 FB, 90-91 peak; 77-81 CU with plus upside that he uses a ton; 80-84 cutter, when thrown harder begins to look more like a SL; 76-79 CB with some upside; plus command of everything he throws; good deception in delivery allows FB to play up, also makes it a pain for hitters to pick up CU; 6-0, 190 pounds

409. Florida JR 1B Vickash Ramjit: one of the draft’s most underrated power sources – he hasn’t had the at bats to generate much draft discussion, but he’s made good use of his time on the field, showing plus power upside at the plate; good defender at first; like his teammate Preston Tucker, Ramjit can also play decent defense in the outfield corners; 6-5, 230 pounds

410. Nebraska JR C Richard Stock: plus arm; plus raw power; good athlete; has gone from USC to LA Pierce JC to Nebraska; value comes as catcher, so if he is forced to play predominantly first base then he’s in trouble; notes from Stock’s prep days: “has elicited Fred McGriff comps with his setup and swing; in a class of ridiculously hard throwers, Stock’s arm is on the short list of the strongest; gets sloppy behind plate due to overreliance on his pure arm strength; sloth-level speed; unfairly graded down because of struggles of his older brother, Robert”; 6-2, 185 pounds

411. Vanderbilt JR RHP Drew Verhagen: 90-93 FB, mid-90s peak (94-95); above-average 80-84 CU; 73-78 CB needs work; 82-84 SL; iffy command; relatively fresh arm; still too reliant on fastball, but could improve quickly with breaking ball if he a) picks one to focus on, b) makes necessary mechanical tweaks; 6-6, 225 pounds

412. Howard JC (TX) rFR RHP Clayton Crum: 91-93 FB, 94-96 peak; Texas transfer; good athlete; above-average SL; average CU; Tommy John survivor; 6-1, 190 pounds

413. Tennessee JR RHP Zack Godley: 85-91 FB; good cutter; improved 78-82 CU; good 73-78 CB; shows an occasional SL; one of the many smart, command-oriented, offspeed reliant righthanders found in the draft each year with back of the rotation and/or middle relief upside; 6-3, 235 pounds

414. Seminole State (OK) CC SO LHP Billy Waltrip: 90-95 FB; good SL; above-average CB; shows CU; 6-2, 215 pounds

415. Stanford rSO RHP Chris Jenkins: at his best sits 93-95 with FB, peaking at 97 with plus movement; average low-80s SL; raw yet interesting CU; only 9.1 college innings in three years at Stanford; really intriguing gamble for a team that believes he can recapture the stuff he showed in high school; 6-7, 220 pounds

416. College of Charleston JR RHP Christian Powell: 87-91 FB, 96 peak; up to more consistent 91-94 this year, still peaking 96; above-average breaking ball when he locates it; has worked in an emerging CU that flashes above-average; 6-4, 215 pounds

417. Princeton JR RHP Matt Bowman: 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; deception in delivery helps; average CU; average SL; 74-76 CB; has the Lincecum delivery down pat; above-average command; 6-0, 165 pounds

418. 3B Cabe Reiten (Olympia HS, Washington): good defender; 6-2, 175 pounds

419. Trinity (TX) SR RHP Ben Klimesh: 90-94 FB, 96 peak; good low-80s breaking ball; shows CU; 6-4, 220 pounds

420. Texas Tech rSO RHP Duke von Schamann: 86-91 FB, 93 peak; FB has lots of life; 77-80 hybrid breaking ball; 80-82 CU; plus command of all pitches; gets by without an above-average pitch – though the sink on his fastball gets it close – due to craftiness, clever pitch sequencing, and the aforementioned plus command; Tommy John survivor; reminds me of Texas A&M RHP Kyle Martin, minus the funky sidearm quality; 6-4, 215 pounds

421. North Carolina JR LHP RC Orlan: 88-92 FB; above-average 87 cutter; good, but inconsistent CB; good low-80s SL; stuff isn’t dominant, but Orlan’s value comes in being able to throw any one of his effective offerings in almost any count; limited ceiling prospect, but could settle in nicely as lefty specialist; 6-0, 200 pounds

422. Clemson JR RHP Scott Firth: heavy 88-92 FB, 93-95 peak; plus CU; really good CB; solid mid-80s SL that flashes plus, but is consistent; command a major issue; control comes and goes, really hampers his overall effectiveness; good coaching could help him take off as he has the raw stuff to start in pro ball; 6-0, 170 pounds

423. Tennessee JR RHP Drew Steckenrider: like fellow SEC standout Brian Johnson, Steckenrider is a two-way prospect that I’d rather personally see with a bat; in both cases, however, I understand why the majority prefers to make each young man a pitcher; as a position player, I think his plus raw power, plus arm strength, and average speed (i.e. good enough for outfield corner) could make him a potential starter in time; as a pitcher, he sits low-90s, 93-97 peak in relief; his fastball runs 87-92 as starter; average 79-85 CU; iffy control; lots of untapped upside and a fresh arm; 6-5, 205 pounds

424. Army SR RHP Kevin McKague: 88-91 FB; pre-injury hit 94-96 and threw a good 88 SL; if he gets healthy as a pro, he’s got a chance to move quickly, but that’s a big if; pretty damn good hitter who had a park/scheduled adjusted wOBA of .447 in 198 at bats; reminds me of Houston Baptist RHP/1B Robbie Buller in terms of size, hitting ability, fastball, and injury history

425. 2B Jordan Ebert (Baldwin County HS, Alabama): good defender; quick bat; 6-1, 180 pounds

426. 2B Jack Dunham (Fallbrook HS, California): good arm; whole field approach

427. 2B Richie Martin (Bloomingdale HS, Florida): good defender; average arm; plus speed; good athlete; some think he can stay at SS

428. Jefferson (MO) CC SO 2B Brett Wiley: good speed; strong arm; intriguing hit tool; may be pushed to 2B as pro

429. Pensacola CC SO 2B Frankie Ratcliff: plus runner; some pop; good defender; kicked off Miami team, but has landed on his feet nicely; 5-8, 170 pounds

430. Oklahoma JR OF Max White: good strength; big league power; really good athlete; above-average speed; tried at 2B last fall, but moved to CF this year, where he has showed impressive instincts; easy to love his defensive versatility – can play anywhere but C and SS; 6-1, 200 pounds

431. Clemson JR RHP Dominic Leone: 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; good to plus CU; quality CB; clean mechanics; command needs work; has everything on paper to succeed at next level, but was hit around in 2012; 6-0, 200 pounds

432. Howard JC (TX) SO RHP Nick Sawyer: low-90s FB, 96-97 peak; good mid-80s SL; control lags behind, but hard to dislike his arm strength and feel for breaking ball; 5-11, 190 pounds

433. Mississippi State JR LHP Nick Routt: 88-92 FB; plus CU; good breaking ball; finally healthy; 6-4, 200 pounds

434. South Florida rSO RHP Austin Adams: 92-95 FB; flashes plus 85-87 SL, also called hard CB but I’m fairly certain it is a slider – either way, it’s a pro breaking ball when he commands it; one of many from USF staff that could make it as a reliever at the next level; 6-2, 190 pounds

435. Missouri JR OF Blake Brown: gifted natural hitter; above-average speed; above-average arm; good defender; smart base runner; plus raw power, but hasn’t shown it in games yet; too many swings and misses; more tools than production so far, but a pro team with a confident developmental staff may be willing to take a risk on his tools sooner rather than later during the draft; 6-1, 190 pounds

436. Central Florida JR SS Darnell Sweeney: plus athlete; very good runner; plus defensive tools; strong arm; interesting potential as leadoff hitter, but lack of power development is somewhat concerning – he needs to put on weight, badly; range is well above-average; defensive upside makes him a scout favorite, but he’ll still have to show he can hit; 6-0, 165 pounds

437. Dallas Baptist JR RHP Stuart Pudenz: 90-95 FB; good splitter that acts as CU; mixes in occasional SL; 6-5, 225 pounds

438. Houston Baptist SR RHP Robbie Buller: mid-90s peak; plus raw power; early season 2012 Tommy John surgery knocked him out for the year, but an intriguing enough talent to get drafted and make some noise once healthy again; 6-6, 220 pounds

439. North Carolina JR 1B Cody Stubbs: good approach; love the easy power; can also hold his own in a corner outfield spot; has been on the scouting radar for years, first in high school, then Tennessee, then junior college, and finally in Chapel Hill, so those who have been fans have surely seen him enough to keep liking him, despite his disappointing junior season; full name: Roland Campbell Stubbs IV; 6-4, 215 pounds

440. Birmingham-Southern JR 1B Bruce Maxwell: Division III superstar who put up video game numbers (below) in 2012; bat alone makes him a prospect; has hit since first day on campus; wasn’t alone in putting up big numbers on team, but its all relative – his year was in a different stratosphere compared to teammates; 6-3, 230 pounds

441. C David Houser (AC Flora HS, South Carolina): good defensive tools; intriguing tools at plate; quick transfer

442. Neosho County (KS) JC SO LHP Matt Strahm: upper-80s FB, 92-93 peak; good SL; above-average CU; good control; good athlete; 6-3, 170 pounds

443. Utah JR RHP Tyler Wagner: 89-92 FB, 93-95 peak; good SL; average CU; good athlete; 6-3, 200 pounds

444. San Jose State JR RHP Mike Aldrete: 92-94 FB with plus sink; good SL; really good defender and quick off the mound, as one might expect from a former middle infielder; 5-10, 170 pounds

445. Texas State JR LHP Colton Turner: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; improved 73-77 breaking ball; improved CU; good command; stuff could play up in relief role; 6-2, 185 pounds

446. Santa Fe (FL) CC SO RHP Brad Markey: 88-91 FB, 93-94 peak; good CB; average CU; plus control; Georgia Tech transfer; 5-11, 180 pounds

447. OF Sam Brown (Jackson HS, Washington): big hit tool; good speed; good base runner; 5-11, 185 pounds

448. OF Tate Matheny (Westminster Christian Academy, Missouri): obvious catching convert still learning ropes of outfield; good speed; has added strength and become legit prospect; 6-2, 185 pounds

449. SS Casey Burns (Grand Junction HS, Colorado): good athlete; good range; strong arm; average speed; good hit tool; some pop

450. Arkansas JR LHP Randall Fant: 88-91 FB, 93 peak; good upper-70s CU; much improved cutter; average at best mid-70s CB; like teammate DJ Baxendale, velocity down 2012: sitting mid-80s, touching 88-89 – velocity loss greatly reduced effectiveness of breaking stuff, so pre-draft medicals will be huge; 6-4, 185 pounds

451. Dallas Baptist rSO RHP Jake Johansen: 90-92 FB, 93-96 peak, has also hit 97-98; good low-80s SL, now up to 85-86 and called a CB by some – either way it flashes plus to plus-plus when on; iffy command and poor control, but reports are positive – the belief is that these things are fixable with better coaching; case in point – he’s a really fast study who picked up an upper-80s cutter this spring that is now a nasty pitch; 6-6, 220 pounds

452. Texas A&M rSO RHP Rafael Pineda: 86-90 FB, 91-92 peak; good sink on FB; good 76-80 CU; mid-80s SL; more projection here than in most college arms, so underwhelming K-rate can be at least partially explained way; 6-5, 210 pounds

453. Fresno State SR RHP Cody Kendall: 90-93 FB, 95 peak; plus sink on FB, very difficult to square up on; also throws CU; works predominantly with FB, sinking and cutting it frequently; could make it in the pros as a reliever capable of coming in with men on and getting a groundball; 6-2, 210 pounds

454. Southern Cal SR RHP Martin Viramontes: sits 90-94; now at 89-92, peak 93; similar to USC teammate RHP Andrew Triggs and Ben Mount in the way all three have lost velocity over the years; still flashes a pair of above-average offspeed pitches in a power 75-80 CB and low-80s CU; 6-4, 210 pounds

455. Northwest Nazarene (ID) JR RHP Zeb Sneed: 91-93 FB, 94-97 peak; plus splitter; control issues; crazy inconsistent, but you can’t teach his kind of arm strength; 6-5, 200 pounds

456. 3B West Tunnell (Boulder Creek HS, Arizona): average speed; above-average arm; average hit tool; good approach; good feel for game

457. Dartmouth SR 2B Joe Sclafani: average at best speed; average or slightly better arm; average defensive tools; power to gaps; good approach; all he’s done is hit in four years of regular duty at Dartmouth – his upside may not match some other names on the list, but at some point during the draft somebody will make the call to stop ignoring a guy who has produced like he has; 5-11, 185 pounds

458. Kentucky JR RHP Tim Peterson: 88-91 FB; good CB; 6-2, 200 pounds

459. Georgia SR RHP Michael Palazzone: 85-90 FB, 92 peak; excellent 79-81 CU; solid low- to mid-70s CB (70-76); good two-seamer; plus command; 6-2, 200 pounds

460. Washington JR RHP Josh Fredendall: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; plus SL; everything down in the zone; under the radar prospect who has been excellent at all stops, including putting up a 0.25 ERA his sophomore season at San Mateo; 6-0, 200 pounds

461. Texas State JR RHP Louis Head: 90-93 FB, 94 peak; good SL, flashes plus; also flashes a plus CU; Texas Tech transfer coming off a good, not great, season pitching out of the bullpen for Texas State; 5-11, 175 pounds

462. South Carolina JR RHP Ethan Carter: sits 88-92, 93 FB peak; good SL with cutter action; really talented arm who has never had the chance to show it at college level; has made mistakes in past, but appears to have straightened himself out enough to get a look; 6-5, 200 pounds

463. Washington rSO RHP Nick Palewicz: at his best, hits 95-98 with FB but velocity was down for much of 2012 season; also throws a CB and CU; Tommy John survivor; considered a difficult sign; 6-2, 220 pounds

464. Louisville SR RHP Derek Self: 88-91 FB, 92-94 peak; two above-average secondary pitches in a good CU and good 79-80 SL; big fan of the 87-88 cutter that he’s found great success with this year; 6-3, 210 pounds

465. Louisburg (NC) JC JR RHP Tim Brechbuehler: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; holds velocity well; UNC transfer; 6-8, 215 pounds

466. Neosho County (KS) JC SO 1B Adam Giacalone: intriguing talent with a professional approach to hitting who is a better baseball player than he is a prospect at any one position – that isn’t meant to take away from his potential, which, if put in the right position on the field, is legitimate, but a comment on his versatility and positive attitude that allows him to succeed in multiple roles; plus arm; average hit tool; average power; above-average upside at 1B; 6-2, 215 pounds

467. OF Zach Coppola (Dowling Catholic HS, Iowa): plus speed; potential for plus range in CF; strong arm; reminds me of prep version of Patrick Biondi; 5-10, 160 pounds

468. OF Joey Curletta (Mountain Pointe HS, Arizona): plus arm strength; just average speed; raw power is there, but haven’t really seen it yet; 6-4, 230 pounds

469. Baylor rJR RHP Max Garner: 87-89 FB, 92 peak; 79-83 SL; 71-76 CB; 80-81 CU; solid numbers (below) and a pair of average or better breaking balls (SL and CB) give him a chance to get picked late as bullpen filler; 6-2, 200 pounds

470. Oklahoma rSO LHP Jordan John: 86-89 FB, 91-92 peak; good CB; good CU; shows SL; good command of offspeed stuff, has confidence to throw any pitch in any count; Tommy John survivor; 6-3, 200 pounds

471. Central Michigan SR RHP Zach Cooper: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; has hit as high as 94-95 in past; good 82-87 SL; average CU; 5-10, 190 pounds

472. Des Moines Area CC SO RHP Nick Dolsky: 90-92 FB, 93-95 peak; 82-85 SL that shows plus; raw CU; Nebraska transfer; 6-8, 215 pounds

473. OF Cullen O’Dwyer (El Dorado HS, New Mexico): quick bat; much improved over summer; good athlete; good hit tool; good arm strength

475. Chandler-Gilbert (AZ) JC SO OF Tyler Hollick: plus speed; good CF range; I like his bat, others not sold; crazy production in 2012

476. Arizona State JR OF Andrew Aplin: pretty line drive swing; plus range in CF; above-average speed; strong arm; well below-average power; leadoff hitter profile; average or better upside with bat, but still largely untapped; 5-11, 185 pounds

477. Miami JR RHP Eric Whaley: 87-91 FB with sink, 92-93 peak; excellent splitter that works as CU; good SL; shows CB; good command; 6-3, 200 pounds

478. Jacksonville State SR 1B Ben Waldrip: big raw power; average arm; no other standout tools beyond bat – average at best glove, not particularly agile around bag, slow, but he can really hit; 6-6, 245 pounds

479. North Carolina JR 2B Tommy Coyle: above-average speed; good athlete; line drive swing; steady enough at SS that he can play there at times, but better fit at 2B; some pop, but more of a slap hitter at this point – when he gets ahead, he’s fine, but his two-strike approach needs work; 5-9, 170 pounds

480. East Carolina JR 3B John Wooten: intriguing offensive tools including significant raw power; despite being viewed by some as a first baseman only, has displayed good range at third in limited looks; has the four-corners defensive versatility (1B/3B/LF/RF) that will help him get chances in pro ball; gets bonus points for strong wood bad showings in the past; one of those prospects that makes doing this fun – Wooten hasn’t gotten much, if any, national love, but area guys sure seem to like him and so do I; 6-4, 210 pounds

481. Memphis SR 3B Jacob Wilson: plus defender; plus arm; not a ton of raw power, but breakout senior season is getting him such well-earned attention; decent runner; 5-11, 190 pounds

482. Miami JR LHP Steven Ewing: 86-90 FB; good CB; relies very heavily on SL; shows CU; 6-2, 225 pounds

483. North Carolina JR RHP Cody Penny: 94 peak FB; potential plus kCB; also has shown CU and SL; has flashed good stuff and been productive when on mound, just hasn’t thrown enough innings to give scouts a real feel for how good he can be; 6-3, 200 pounds

484. Nebraska JR RHP Travis Huber: 88-92 FB with sink, 93-95 peak; very good 83-84 SL; good CB; raw CU; good athlete; 6-3, 225 pounds

485. Illinois JR RHP Matt Milroy: 90-93 FB, 94-96 peak; good 82-86 SL with plus upside; good athlete; loses velocity earlier than you’d like, but a permanent professional move to the bullpen should help; drafting team will have to be patient (note his ugly walk rate below), but Milroy has legitimate late inning relief stuff; 6-3, 200 pounds

486. SS TJ Lemke (Grandview Prep, Colorado): good speed; good defensive tools; interesting pop

487. SS Angel Ortega (International Baseball Academy, Puerto Rico): plus defender

488. Oregon State JR SS Tyler Smith: very good glove; strong enough arm for left side; above-average speed; gap power; 6-0, 175 pounds

489. Auburn SR 2B Creede Simpson: legit hit tool; good defender at second; above-average speed; can also play SS and 3B, as well as all three outfield spots; if limited to one position defensively, he’d be an iffy draft, but his versatility has great value, especially for teams looking to fill low-minors rosters; 6-2, 185 pounds

490. C Chad Johnson (Galesburg HS, Illinois): plus defensive tools; strong arm; intriguing power upside; 6-1, 180 pounds

491. Michigan State SR RHP Tony Bucciferro: heavy 86-88 FB, 90-92 peak; has no problem throwing sinkers all day; very good hard SL; developing 80-81 CU that has emerged as solid third pitch with above-average sink; plus control; plus pitchability; better than your average mid-round senior sign with stuff that could play up even more in short bursts; 6-3, 200 pounds

492. Minnesota rJR RHP TJ Oakes: 86-90 FB, 91 peak; good sink on FB; FB up in 2012: more consistently 90-92, occasionally peaking 93-94; solid 78-84 SL; 75 CB; 6-5, 220 pounds

493. McLennan (TX) JC rFR RHP Eric Brooks: 88-93 FB, 95-96 peak; up to consistent 92-96 this year; Houston transfer; plus athlete with legit plus speed; 6-2, 200 pounds

494. New Mexico JR C Mitchell Garver: one of the quicker bats I’ve personally seen this spring, really underrated bat speed and power projection; good approach; strong hit tool; not a standout defensively, but a decent athlete with an average arm; 6-1, 200 pounds

495. Princeton SR C Sam Mulroy: above-average speed; plus arm strength and elite athleticism also play well at 3B and OF; one of the players I’ve personally seen the most: big league bat speed with the tools to keep catching are what make him stand out; scouts seem to think he fits best as an outfielder at the next level, so don’t be surprised to hear him announced at that spot – I’d rather he stick behind the plate, but at least a position switch would save his speed; 5-11 205 pounds

496. Stetson JR C Sam Kimmel: really good athlete with the potential to be a plus defender behind plate; above-average arm strength that could lead to plus pop times as he cleans up his footwork; impressive speed for a catcher; draft lists like this are full of personal biases and Kimmel’s higher than you’d think placement shows one of mine: I value athletic, defensive catchers in a big way, and Kimmel is one of college’s best; 6-0, 180 pounds

497. Samford SR C Brandon Miller: good present power; strong arm; good athlete; reminiscent of Dane Phillips when it comes to his defense – has seen time in the OF, where many think he profiles best as a pro, but I’d keep running him out behind the plate until he shows he can’t do it; 6-1, 210 pounds

498. C CJ Saylor (South Hills HS, California): 86-88 FB; quick feet; plus arm with a track record of cutting down base runners; mobile behind plate; really good defensive ability; very athletic behind plate; above-average hit tool; power upside in question – can he some to gaps, but that’s about it; potential plus defender, some would argue he’s already there; not a plus power/plus arm strength guy, but still talented; no problems catching velocity; 5-10, 180 pounds; R/R

499. C Jason Goldstein (Highland Park HS, Illinois): plus arm strength; highest level defensive tools; accurate arm; strong; fantastic footwork; quick bat; good approach; not a ton of power upside, but a professional hitting approach; 5-11, 190 pounds; R/R

500. Central Florida rJR 1B DJ Hicks: ugly swing, but good bat speed and college production put him in the “if it ain’t broke…” category of young hitting prospects; his bat will be what carries him as his above-average hit tool (underrated, I think, and rare for such a big man) and plus power potential help him stand out in the crowd of college bats; plus arm strength; slow moving on bases and in the field; has shown promise on the mound with a fastball that sits 86-90 (92-94 peak), decent splitter, and slider with some promise; 6-5, 250 pounds

501. SS Spencer Edwards (Rockwall HS, Texas): plus speed; good pop; 5-11, 180 pounds

502. Armstrong Atlantic State (GA) SO RHP Ethan Bader: 88-91 FB with plus sink, 92 peak; plus SL; plus command; 6-6, 225 pounds

503. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi JR RHP Dan Minor: 88-91 FB, 93 peak; good CB; good command; 5-11, 180 pounds

504. South Florida rSO RHP Ray Delphey: 90-93 FB; good SL; 5-10, 200 pounds

505. Texas SR LHP Sam Stafford: missed 2012 season due to shoulder surgery; when healthy, sat 90-93 with FB, peak 94-96; effective breaking ball often identified as 80-82 SL but also called power CB; 83-85 CU; big FB command issues, but velocity and breaking ball kept him an early round prospect; obvious question will be his long-term health prognosis, so no telling where different teams will stack him on their boards, if they include him at all; could make a team look really smart, but could just as easily never pitch effectively again; 6-4, 190 pounds

506. SS DC Arendas (Forsyth Country Day HS, North Carolina): good defensive tools; strong arm; 6-1, 180 pounds

507. Michigan JR OF Patrick Biondi: plus-plus speed, but doesn’t always use it as effectively as he could – check his SB%; outstanding defender in CF; strong arm; knows his role as a hitter – plays up the pesky, on-base skills and hits the ball where the ball is pitched; 5-9, 165 pounds

508. Texas A&M SO OF Krey Bratsen: 80 speed; plus arm; plus CF range; very raw in all other phases of the game; 6-0, 170 pounds

509. Utah JR RHP Zach Adams: 89-93 FB, 95-96 peak, but incredibly inconsistent pitch due to fluctuating velocity (sometimes will top out only at 90-91) and command that comes and goes; good but inconsistent 81 SL; arm strength reliever with a lot to answer for after ineffective junior season; 6-4, 205 pounds

510. East Carolina JR RHP Jharel Cotton: 88-92 FB, 93-94 peak; CU and SL both flash plus, so there is some starter upside if everything comes together in pro ball; inconsistent command; Miami Dade CC transfer; status as short righthander (5-11, 200 pounds) generates some doubt, but some scouts will argue for Cotton as a bulldog-type who competes every night, citing his victories in his first 8 decisions of 2012

511. North Carolina State rSO RHP Anthony Tzamtzis: strong armed former infielder who was a very good fielder, so his athleticism is top notch; 89-92 FB; 73-77 CB; 84 CU; has really improved throughout course of year as he has devoted himself to pitching; case in point: up to 95 peak late in season while also showing a really strong 82-84 SL; continues to also show mid-70s CB and mid-80s change; fresh arm; repertoire and athleticism make him well-suited for starting; 6-1, 190 pounds

512. Texas SR RHP Austin Dicharry: 88-92 FB; plus CU; intriguing CB that is now above-average; injuries have slowed him down, but three pitch strike throwers with good size (6-4, 200 pounds) and above-average amateur track records work for me

513. Creighton JR LHP Ty Blach: 89-91 FB, 92-94 peak; good CU that has improved in last calendar year; attacks hitters on the inner-half and is a renowned strike thrower; low-80s SL flashes plus; good overall command; has the three pitches to start and above-average velocity from the left side, but lack of draft year domination at the college level is a tad disconcerting; 6-1, 200 pounds

514. TCU rJR RHP Kaleb Merck: 88-91, 92 FB peak; once up to 96 with FB in (spring ’10), but arm troubles (Tommy John surgery) have knocked him down to 90-92 at his best; as his arm has bounced back, his command has improved a great deal; overall, really strong command of three-pitch mix; above-average mid-70s CB that gets as high as 80, little bit of a hybrid breaking ball; good CU; Merck’s return to health has been a good story, but his ceiling (middle relief) is somewhat limited unless he recaptures some of his pre-injury heat; 6-0, 200 pounds

515. Alabama JR RHP Ian Gardeck: 94-96 FB, 98-100 peak; plus to plus-plus mid- to upper-80s SL; bad control and command; mechanics need overhaul; stuff was down as he had an awful spring, but still showed enough flashes of two potential wipeout big league pitches that somebody will bite; 6-2, 225 pounds

516. Seton Hall JR RHP Ryan Harvey: 88-90 FB, 91-92 peak; good low-80s SL; average CB; has shown CU; has four pitches that could allow him to continue starting in pro ball, but stuff plays up as reliever; 6-1, 220 pounds

517. Maryland SR SS Alfredo Rodriguez: good arm; really good defender; great approach and a much improved hit tool; little to no power; average arm, but enough for SS when combined with everything else well he does defensively; 6-0, 180 pounds

518. Louisiana Tech rJR RHP Jeb Stefan: 90-92 FB, 94 peak; also uses SL and CU, though neither profiles as big league out pitch at this point; iffy control; 6-4, 225 pounds

519. Binghamton JR RHP Lee Sosa: 92-93 FB, 94-95 peak; iffy control; 6-2, 200 pounds

520. Jacksonville State JR RHP Hunter Rivers: 90-93 FB, has hit 97 as reliever; good CB; super raw CU; really good athlete; 6-2, 190 pounds

521. Ohio State rSO RHP John Kuchno: 88-92 FB, can hit 94-95 in relief; impressive CB, but still getting a feel for it; iffy control has improved with time; 6-4, 205 pounds

522. Sacramento State rSR C Derrick Chung: really good athlete; strong arm; excellent mobility behind plate; converted infielder who has taken to catching well; retains above-average speed, but catching could beat that down over time; leadoff profile as hitter – patient approach, good plate coverage, unafraid of deep counts, line drive swing that leads to consistent hard contact; age (24 in February) works against him; 5-10, 170 pounds

523. Notre Dame JR C Joe Hudson: excellent defender with plus big league upside; plus arm strength and accuracy; some power upside; too many swings and misses, but improved performance with the bat in 2012, especially in the power department, helps him profile as a potential backup; 6-1, 200 pounds

524. Baylor SR C Josh Ludy: above-average present power, strong, compact build; has improved in two major areas this spring – first, his questionable glove now has a chance to be average with continued work, and second, his hit tool, previously below-average, has improved just enough to put his power to use thanks to a cleaned up swing; strong arm; good approach; not sure he has the defensive chops to work as a backup, but power and physical strength are intriguing; 5-10, 210 pounds

525. C Nelson Rodriguez (George Washington HS, New York): plus raw power; plus arm strength; quick release; plus bat speed; hits it to center and opposite field most often; has to keep that weight in check; looked better behind plate than I imagined, but still not good enough; 6-2, 230 pounds; R/R

526. Oregon State JR RHP Tony Bryant: 87-90 FB, 94 peak in HS days; only in the mid-80s (84-88) this past spring; very good CU that flashes plus; leans on CU heavily; if some velocity returns and he can develop a more reliable breaking ball (two big ifs), then he could take off in a big way in pro ball if (another big if!) given the chance; 6-7, 215 pounds

527. Cypress (CA) JC SO RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon (2012): 89-93 FB; good CB; better cutter; 6-4; Arizona transfer

528. Florida SR RHP Greg Larson: similar prospect to Auburn RHP Slade Smith – both have deceptive deliveries and loads of sink on everything they throw; 6-8, 235 pounds

529. C Chris Chinea (Gulliver Prep HS, Florida): strong arm; power upside; good athlete; strong; long swing; quick release; good enough defender; 6-0, 200 pounds

530. C Tomas Nido (Orangewood Christian HS, Florida): good defender; plus arm strength, above-average pop times; good raw power; swing is way too long – kills bad pitching, struggles against the good; BP power at this point; 6-0, 200 pounds

531. C Wilfredo Rodriguez (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy): strong arm; quick bat

532. New Mexico State JR RHP Tyler Mack: 89-92 FB, 93-95 peak; 79-81 CU; plus breaking ball, not sure whether it is the 76-78 CB or 84 SL; iffy control; 6-4, 200 pounds

533. Arizona State JR RHP Alex Blackford: too straight 86-90 FB; above-average 77-78 CB; best pitch is CU; 81-82 SL; interesting pitcher who throws four pitches for strikes and has put up consistently strong numbers – lack of size and arm strength may keep him in school one more year, but he’s a solid college arm to monitor; 5-11, 200 pounds

534. USC Sumter JC SO RHP Tyler Smith: 90-93 FB, 95 peak, but gets too straight to fool professional bats; secondary stuff needs work; 6-3, 205 pounds

535. North Carolina State JR RHP Chris Overman: 87-91 FB; plus splitter; good SL; plus command; middle relief possibility; strong summer experiences including outstanding run in Cape Cod League; 6-2, 225 pounds

536. Harvard SR LHP Brent Suter: heavy 88-91 FB; plus CU; good command; 6-5, 200 pounds

537. Northeastern SR LHP Andrew Leenhouts: 87-88 FB, 90-91 peak; good CB; average CU that sometimes shows better; FB command needs work, and pitch is presently too straight; clean mechanics; 6-3, 200 pounds

538. 1B Wade McNabb (Memorial Catholic HS, Indiana): good power upside; bat is best tool; defense a major question mark behind plate, so likely a first baseman professionally

539. Orange Coast CC (CA) rSO OF Chris Carlson: he can hit; average speed; average defender; but he can really hit; 5-10, 170 pounds

540. Tulane JR OF Brandon Boudreaux: plus speed; plus range; leadoff profile

541. UCLA JR OF Beau Amaral: strong defender in CF; leadoff profile; hard contact; well above-average runner; quick bat; iffy arm strength; good athlete; good range; whole field approach; carries himself with the confidence of a pro; does all the little things well; 5-10, 180 pounds

542. Vanderbilt JR OF Michael Yastrzemski: reminds me of opposite version of college teammate Connor Harrell; well-rounded set of tools, but nothing that stands out as plus; good defender in all three outfield spots; above-average speed; nice lefthanded swing that is built for line drives, not much loft or extension keeps him from hitting for big power; strong, accurate arm; uses whole field well as hitter; the type of player who grows on you with time; 5-11, 175 pounds

543. College of Charleston rSO OF Daniel Aldrich: good to plus raw power who puts together some monumental BPs and carries some, though not all, of it over to game action; his ultra-aggressive approach is what could be his undoing – the savvier pitchers in pro ball, armed with more detailed scouting reports, will know how to exploit the holes in his swing; poor arm keeps him stuck in LF; as a LF only, he’ll have to mash like he has as a college guy in the pros to survive; with his raw power he’ll have a chance, especially if he makes the right swing adjustments and works to improve his two-strike approach; 6-2, 200 pounds

544. Coastal Carolina SR OF Daniel Bowman: impressive plus raw power; strong enough arm for RF; decent speed; previously too much of a hacker with far too many empty swings, but toned down his aggression in a positive way this year; has a reputation, fair or not, as mistake hitter; carrying tool is his power upside which, if nothing else, gives him the edge over a fair number of mid-round college position players looking for work; 6-1, 210 pounds

545. OF Steven Duggar (Byrnes HS, South Carolina): good hit tool; good speed; strong arm; CF range; strong Clemson commitment; 6-2, 180 pounds

546. Lamar (CO) CC SO OF Jackson Gooch: good range in corner; average at best arm; really interesting upside with bat; 6-4, 200 pounds

547. Stanford JR OF Tyler Gaffney: leadoff profile with great approach and plus speed; plus athleticism; plus range in corner, above-average in CF; strong hit tool despite unconventional swing – many hate the swing and say it won’t work at next level, but the complaints seem more based on performance (i.e. more grumbling this year than last) and I don’t personally foresee problems with the swing ahead; below-average arm strength, but above-average accuracy; 6-0, 220 pounds

548. Texas State SR RHP Mitchell Pitts: 88-90 FB; everything sinks; good command

549. Indiana SR RHP Chad Martin: 90-93 FB, 95 peak; CB and SL both inconsistent; no real CU to speak of; could have a bullpen future if he can figure out how to repeat his mechanics more consistently and develop a more reliable breaking ball (i.e. pick one or the other and run with it); 6-7, 240 pounds

550. Florida State JR RHP Robert Benincasa: 89-92 FB, 93 peak; good SL; good splitter used as CU that he learned from Mark Appel; 6-2, 200 pounds

551. Bakersfield (CA) CC SO SS Brent Peterson: plus speed; good defensive tools; strong arm; questionable hit tool

552. Pepperdine JR SS Zach Vincej: strong arm; steady defender; 5-11, 165 pounds

553. Texas A&M JR SS Mikey Reynolds: some pop; plus speed; good range up the middle; average arm; steady defender

554. Vanderbilt JR SS Anthony Gomez: another player with lots of averages on his scouting card – this may look boring, but the bar for average is pretty damn high in professional baseball; steady defender; so-so runner; fringe-average raw power, but hasn’t shown up in games yet; good approach; hasn’t personally wowed me as hitter, but defensive versatility will get him drafted higher than I’d otherwise suggest; profiles as effective situational, bat control, contact bat with just enough pop to keep pitchers honest – could be one of those pesky, ten-year utility infielders if everything breaks right; 5-11, 185 pounds

555. George Mason rJR LHP Chris O’Grady: 86-90 FB, 92 peak; plus 82-84 cutter; also mixes in CB and CU; 6-4, 220 pounds

556. Purdue JR RHP Brad Schreiber: 90-92 FB, 94-96 peak with plus-plus upside; 73-75 below-average breaking ball; missed 2012 season because of Tommy John surgery, so he falls under the category of injury risk/questionable sign prospects who might be lured away from college to get paid to rehab or might not; Schreiber’s fastball is so electric that it wouldn’t surprise me to see a team gamble on him wanting to sign in the mid-rounds; 6-4, 235 pounds

557. George Mason JR RHP Brandon Kuter: 92-94 FB with sink, 96 peak; emerging SL that flashes plus; good athlete; below-average control; 6-7, 220 pounds

558. Tennessee Tech SR RHP Matt Shepherd: 90-93 FB, 95 peak; plus SL; good CU; iffy command

559. Florida State JC at Jacksonville SO OF Terrell Joyce: good speed; can be too aggressive on both base paths and at plate; super raw; considered signable within first ten rounds – after that, his commitment to Virginia Tech will come into play; can also play infield corners, though unsure how well he defends at third; 6-3, 225 pounds

560. Mississippi JR OF Tanner Mathis: leadoff hitter profile; some pop; above-average speed; good range; good hit tool; 6-0, 180 pounds

561. Hawaii JR OF Breland Almadova: true plus (70) speed; very good defensive tools (range, athleticism, instincts), definite CF range; have heard conflicting reports on arm, ranging from “weak” to “arm is an asset” – looked strong and accurate to me, and it has more fans than detractors from what I’ve heard; enough power to gaps to keep pitchers honest; great athlete with the ceiling of a leadoff hitting centerfielder and the more likely floor of reserve outfielder who can run and catch; 6-1, 200 pounds

562. Virginia Tech JR RHP Patrick Scoggin: 87-90 FB, peak 91-92 as starter; in bullpen, sits 93-95, 96 peak; good sinker; better SL; 80-82 CU that needs work; 77-80 CB; inconsistent command; 6-5, 240 pounds

563. Weatherford JC (TX) FR RHP Jacob Stone: 90-93 FB, 95 peak; flashes plus CB; raw CU; 6-1, 200 pounds

564. Hawaii SR OF Collin Bennett: strong history with wood; good athlete; average at best in CF, above-average in corner; above-average arm, enough for RF; patient approach at plate, will wait for something to drive; defensive versatility could get him drafted, as he can also play a decent 3B; 6-1, 205 pounds

565. Santa Fe (FL) CC SO OF Trey Griffin: above-average speed; great athlete; still believe the bat will come on, but gets less likely with each passing year; like Stewart Ijames, Griffin has been a long-time favorite whom I’ve always looked at as a potential regular big league player – his progress has stagnated, so we’re left wondering what might have been if he had given pro ball an earlier shot; 6-3, 210 pounds

566. Santa Fe (FL) CC FR OF Mallex Smith: plus-plus speed; interesting pop, but needs to put on some muscle; good approach, but could stand to be more patient and take on his role as a potential leadoff hitter; raw, but talented; 5-10, 175 pounds

567. Salt Lake (UT) CC SO OF Dominque Taylor: plus speed; some power upside; average at best arm; very raw bat, but intrigued by hit tool; CF range; 6-0, 190 pounds

568. Maryland SR RHP Brett Harman: 86-90 FB with good natural sink, good command; solid SL that he uses more than any other pitch; CU flashes plus; strong performance in 2010, missed 2011, rebounded with nice 2012 – on/off track record may get him lost in shuffle, but there’s enough here to think of him as a viable mid- to late-round middle relief prospect; 6-4, 220 pounds

569. Austin Peay State SR LHP Zach Toney: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; solid CB; interesting splitter; iffy control; 6-3, 220 pounds

570. Southeast Missouri State JR RHP Shae Simmons: 88-94 FB, 95-96 peak; emerging 81-83 SL that is now well above-average and flashes plus; improved CU; good athlete; below-average control; 6-0, 180 pounds

571. North Carolina State JR 3B Danny Canela: has experience behind the plate, but I’m not sure he’s strong enough back there to be a consistent viable option professionally – if I’m wrong, that’s great news for Canela’s prospect stock; at third, he’s a good enough defender who plays the position as you’d expect a part-time catcher would (i.e. often steady, never spectacular); interesting power potential; quick bat; great arm is biggest defensive asset; 6-0, 210 pounds

572. Indiana (PA) JR 2B Robbie Zinsmeister: good power upside; plus speed; solid defender

573. 2B Forrest Perron (Strongsville HS, Ohio): good approach; smart player

574. 1B Matt Livingston (James Madison HS, Virginia): good defensive tools at first; power upside is there, but yet to be unlocked; 6-4, 200 pounds

575. Mississippi SR 1B Matt Snyder: mature approach pairs well with mature, physical, strong as an ox frame; well above-average raw power; average at best hit tool, but better than that of most college senior sign sluggers; below-average defender; below-average speed; 6-6, 215 pounds

576. Iowa JR LHP Matt Dermody: 87-90 FB, 92 peak; 71-73 CB; CU; SL; good control, but command can come and go; 6-5, 200 pounds

577. Mississippi JR RHP Brett Huber: 89-93 FB; good SL; CB; 78-82 CU; iffy control; 6-3, 190 pounds

578. Rutgers rSO RHP Charlie Law: 87-90 FB with good sink; above-average CU; solid potential with CB; questionable mechanics and command due mostly to a lack of experience on the mound, but might have enough raw stuff – he certainly has the size – to intrigue a team to make a late run at him; 6-7, 235 pounds

579. Elon JR C Alex Swim: good defender; plus arm; love his approach; good runner for a catcher; has the swing, weight shift, and pitch recognition to hit for more power than he’s shown, but still needs to put on some muscle to turn some gappers into home runs; 6-0, 185 pounds

580. Nebraska JR 3B Chad Christensen: steady glove; average arm; converted OF who is currently at SS, so versatility could be his ticket to advancing through minor league system; 6-3, 200 pounds

581. Arizona JR 3B Seth Mejias-Bream: plus athlete; average speed; impressive defensive tools; above-average raw power that currently plays to gaps; 6-2, 205 pounds

582. SS Bobby Zarubin (Santa Fe Christian HS, California): good athlete; above-average speed; plus arm

583. Fresno State rSR RHP Gene Escat: 88-92 FB; good SL; CU; 6-3, 190 pounds

584. Oakland rSO LHP Hayden Fox: 88-92 FB; good CB; gives me the chance to go back and read every post from what might be my favorite website of all time (http://coachfox.blogspot.com); 6-4, 200 pounds

585. Maryland SR RHP Sander Beck: straight 88-92 FB with good command; has shown better movement on FB lately; improving 75-78 KCB; solid CU; up to 92-93 easy peak last summer, but hasn’t maintained velocity gains over time; good 82-85 cutter, also called a SL; stuff has never been much of a question, but his control is a longstanding issue that has yet to be fixed; 6-3, 225 pounds

586. Virginia rJR LHP Scott Silverstein: mostly 86-90 with FB; advanced CU; projectable breaking ball; had low-90s FB pre-surgery; two operations to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder; considered unsignable in 2011, but likely to come out in 2012; reportedly back to low-90s in fall ball 2011; peaking back at 93 in 2012; breaking ball has developed into solid SL; 6-6, 240 pounds

587. Auburn SR RHP Derek Varnadore: 89-92 FB, rare 94 peak; improved SL, has really firmed up – now 86-88 and an above-average pitch; shows CU; good deception; total package adds up to a solid mid- to late-round senior sign and a potential middle reliever if he hangs on long enough; 6-4, 215 pounds

588. San Diego JR LHP James Pazos: 88-92 FB, 93 peak; good CU; SL with upside; has the repertoire, delivery, and demeanor to potentially start in pro ball; 6-3, 225 pounds

589. St. Mary’s SR RHP Kyle Barraclough: 89-93 FB, 94-95 peak; decent SL; effective splitter as CU; power stuff profiles best in short stints as a reliever, a role that he could be quite valuable in professionally; 6-3, 220 pounds

590. SS Lucas Hunter (Central Catholic HS, Oregon): plus speed; 5-11, 160 pounds

591. SS Ryne Shelton (Timberline HS, Washington): plus speed; strong arm

592. North Carolina State JR SS Chris Diaz: average defender at SS with enough pop and speed to profile nicely as a potential utility player across the infield; 5-11, 180 pounds

593. Penn SR RHP Vince Voiro: 90-92 FB with good sink, 93-95 peak; mid-70s CB/SL with plus upside; much improved CU; 6-4, 200 pounds

594. CC Western Nevada SO RHP Tyler Spencer: 90-93 FB, 94 peak; good FB movement; groundball machine; flashes plus SL; iffy command; 6-2, 200 pounds

595. Maine JR RHP Steve Perakslis: 87-91 FB, 92-93 peak; good breaking ball; above-average CU; iffy control; 6-1, 185 pounds

596. UC Irvine JR LHP Matt Whitehouse: 86-90 FB; plus 80-83 cutter; good CU; good 79-80 breaking ball; above-average overall command; rarely has all four pitches working at once – when he does, he looks like a legit pro prospect, but inconsistency has held him back; 6-1, 180 pounds

597. OF Christian Keene (Brookhaven Academy, Mississippi): great athlete; above-average arm; above-average speed; intriguing raw power; 6-3, 200 pounds

598. OF Timothy Robinson (Ocean View HS, California): strong; 6-1, 235 pounds; LF only; weak arm; not fast; big raw power; inherent risk in any bat only prep player, but 60/70 power might be worth it

599. James Madison rSO OF Johnny Bladel: ranked 17th on my pre-season list – that might just go down as a miss on my end; above-average to plus speed; gap power; great approach; good defensive CF; plus arm; will have to answer for his suspension from the team, but by all accounts the incident was more youthful indiscretion than long-term concern; status as redshirt-sophomore combined with down season will make him a tough sign, but I still believe in him and will be first in line pumping him up on a 2013 draft list if it comes to it; 6-0, 175 pounds

600. Georgia Tech SO OF Kyle Wren: plus-plus speed; good CF range; ideal leadoff approach; needs to put on some weight and start driving some balls to keep pitchers honest in pro ball; considered a difficult sign, so wouldn’t be a surprise to see him drop and then return to Georgia Tech for another season; 5-10, 165 pounds

601. UC Riverside rSR RHP Eddie Orozco: 89-91 FB, 94 peak; good command of solid SL; also throws an average CU with the chance for a bit more; 6-4, 200 pounds

602. UC Irvine JR RHP Kyle Hooper: 86-90 FB with good sink, 91 peak; good 72-80 CB, hitting the firmer side of that range in 2012; average 78 CU; 6-5, 220 pounds

603. Holy Cross JR RHP John Colella: heavy 90-92 FB; potential plus CB; 6-2, 215

604. Cal Poly JR RHP Nick Grim: 90-93 FB, 95-96 peak; 78-84 breaking ball (more SL than CB) flashes plus, but below-average most days; shows a CU; iffy command; below-average control; inconsistent velocity appearance to appearance due to odd delivery hitch – his mid-90s peak is often closer to 92-93, but it isn’t a matter of arm strength; 6-3, 190 pounds

605. San Diego JR C Dillon Haupt: plus arm strength; good first year of Division I ball, but could really take off with another year of experience; 6-5, 225 pounds

606. Texas Pan-American SR 3B Vincent Mejia: underrated hit tool; great approach showed why I think he is worth a late pick – even as his average dipped in 2012, his on-base percentage remained above-average; average power upside, currently almost entirely to gaps; below-average speed; similar player to Trenton Moses, but not quite as much power upside or physical strength; 6-0, 215 pounds

607. Arizona Christian JR OF Alex Glenn: plus-plus speed; good pop; tools are there to be elite defender; above-average arm; raw hitter, but lots of upside at plate; USC transfer

608. OF DJ Stewart (Bolles School, Florida): great athlete; good power; strong hit tool; 6-0, 215 pounds

609. New Mexico State JR LHP Ryan Beck: 85-90 FB; very good 72-76 CB; good but inconsistent 78-83 CU; 6-3, 220 pounds

610. Gonzaga JR LHP Tyler Olson: 85-88 FB, 90 peak; holds FB velocity deep into starts; throws both an average to slightly above-average 76-80 SL and CU; also goes to usable 70-72 CB; Olson is a four pitch lefthander with enough of a college track record to get a mid-round look; 6-3, 180 pounds

611. UC Santa Barbara rSR LHP Kevin Gelinas: once regularly lived in the low- to mid-90s (94-95 peak), so if his arm checks out you might see mid-90s peaks again; has always had a good SL when healthy; has pitched seemingly everywhere during his college career, but 2012 season was his longest continuous stretch of good health since his junior college days (pre-UCSB, post-Pepperdine); 6-5, 240 pounds

612. Indiana State JR RHP Dakota Bacus: 86-90 FB, 92-93 peak; good 84-87 SL that flashes plus; average CU with chance for more; in position to potentially surface as a fifth starter/middle reliever (FB/SL) down the line; 6-2, 200 pounds

613. Oral Roberts JR RHP Kurt Giller: 92 peak; good CB; good cutter; good CU; Nebraska transfer

614. Virginia Tech rJR OF Andrew Rash: plus to plus-plus righthanded power, some of the best of its kind in this year’s college class; for all that power and his excellent bat speed, the results have fallen off in a big way after his breakout redshirt-sophomore season; above-average arm; average speed and good instincts help him get by in CF, but profiles best in RF at next level; power will be his carrying tool, so if a team believes that he’ll enough long balls to make up for the overall deficiencies in his offensive game then I think he’ll go high enough to sign; 6-0, 200 pounds

615. Iowa Western CC SO OF Tanner Kreitemeier: very good CF; good speed; plus arm; Nebraska transfer; really interested in the bat; 6-2, 190 pounds

616. Toledo JR RHP Mike Hamann: 88-92 FB, 93-95 peak, but velocity seems to come and go; good 83-86 SL; also throws CB and CU; stuff should play up in shorter stints and he could make it as a FB/SL reliever down the line; 6-3, 170 pounds

617. Texas-San Antonio SR LHP Casey Selsor: 88-90 FB; above-average SL; good athlete who can hit, run, and field his position well; 6-3, 190 pounds

618. Northwestern JR RHP Luke Farrell: 88-91 FB, 92-93 peak; good breaking ball; easy player to root for who has battled back from major health obstacles to reach this point; he fits better as a potential late-round 2013 senior sign, but high character and big league bloodlines could get him picked sooner; 6-6, 200 pounds

619. Baylor rJR 3B Cal Towey: good plate discipline; high marks for work ethic; strong arm; solid strength that he’s worked hard to improve on since enrolling; average speed; has experience in the OF; no glaring weakness to his game, but no standout tool that screams big leaguer – biggest asset may be his defensive versatility; 6-2, 210 pounds

620. Stetson SR 3B Ben Carhart: hasn’t pitched much all that much at college level, but at his best he sits 90-94 with FB. good SL and a 75-77 CB; as a hitter, he shows a great approach, average power to gaps and below-average speed; he hits like a pitcher, but not in a bad way – he shows great knowledge of the strike zone and pitch sequencing, and squares up on balls consistently; I’ve long been a favorite, so why quit now?; 5-11, 190 pounds

621. LSU-Eunice SO C Stuart Turner: very good defender; strong arm; only slightly below-average speed underway (impressive for a catcher, especially one his size), but smart on bases; has shown a quality approach, especially with two strikes; 6-2, 220 pounds

622. Jacksonville State SR C Sam Eberle: decent defender who might fit best at 3B in pro ball; good athlete; strong; good runner for either defensive spot; bat could be above-average if allowed to catch at next level, but he’ll have to improve footwork and speed of release; 6-1, 220 pounds

623. Stanford JR C Eric Smith: took him two years to snag starting spot, but has taken the job and run with it this spring; above-average power to the gaps; good defensive tools that should play at a few different spots – has also seen time at 2B and 3B; 6-1, 190 pounds

624. California SR RHP Matt Flemer: 85-88 FB, 91 peak; pair of effective breaking balls: 71-72 CB and 76-78 SL; good deception; plus command; 6-3, 215 pounds

625. Mississippi State JR RHP Kendall Graveman: 88-91 FB with plus sink; really good 78-81 sinking CU; 75-77 CB; average 83-84 SL; 6-1, 190 pounds

626. Oregon State JR RHP Cole Brocker: 91-94 FB; flashes plus CB; junior college transfer (Sacramento City) who put up interesting enough strikeout and walk ratios to go along with two pitches that could work in a pro bullpen; 6-4, 215 pounds

627. Baylor JR RHP Kolt Browder: low-90s FB, 93 peak; flashes plus breaking ball; stuff has been inconsistent, but there might be enough there, especially if a team saw him on a good day, to get him drafted late; 6-0, 200 pounds

628. Missouri JR LHP Blake Holovach: 88-90 FB, 93-94 peak; good FB command; hasn’t put together the put-away secondary stuff needed to finish off hitters consistently; 6-3, 200 pounds

629. Oklahoma State JR RHP Randy McCurry: 88-92 FB, once was able to get up to 94-95 peak; flashes plus SL; also throws CB and CU at times; great athlete; Tommy John survivor; 6-1, 200 pounds

630. C RJ Ybarra (Riverside Poly HS, California): good power upside; above-average arm strength; 5-11, 200 pounds

631. Penn State rSO LHP Joe Kurrasch: as starter, sits 87-90, 92 peak; can get it a tick or two higher as reliever; average CU; has done a good job getting in better shape over past year, but doesn’t have the depth or quality of stuff to make much of a pro impact at this point; Cal transfer; 6-2, 200 pounds

632. Toledo SR RHP Lincoln Rassi: 87-90 FB as starter, 92-95 FB in relief; good SL; CU; good command; 6-1, 180 pounds

633. Oregon SR RHP Alex Keudell: 85-88 FB, 90 peak with plus sink; cutter; good SL; shows CU; plus overall command; good athlete; Keudell is a college workhorse with a chance to have just enough uptick in stuff in shorter stints to have value as a late-round middle relief prospect; 6-3, 200 pounds

634. C David Real (Boulder Creek HS, Arizona): good raw power; strong arm; good athlete; 6-0, 185 pounds

635. C Boomer White (Memorial HS, Texas): good power; above-average speed; good athlete

636. C Zack Bowers (Harrison HS, Georgia): strong arm; mobile behind plate; good athlete; I think he’ll stick, others don’t; interesting power upside; 6-2, 185 pounds

637. Bradley SR LHP Joe Bircher: 84-88 FB, 90 peak; plus CB; also throws decent chase SL; really good CU; impeccable control; plus command; can go to three pitches (FB-CU-CB) in any count, so it is hard to time his fastball; could start professionally, but the chance his fastball picks up a few miles in relief is enticing; 6-4, 220 pounds

638. TCU rSO RHP Tyler Duffie: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; good SL; iffy control; good three pitch mix lends itself to starting one day, but figures to be a tough sign as redshirt sophomore coming off a year with minimal innings; 6-4, 215 pounds

639. Missouri State rSO RHP Nick Petree: 85-88 FB (90 peak) with plus movement and great sink; good mid-70s SL; better 78-80 CU that flashes plus; strong cutter; also throws CB; has the kind of pitchability typically associated with lefthanded prospects; good overall command; missed 2010 season due to Tommy John surgery; will drop FB down in velocity (more 85s and 86s) to get more movement; when fatigued, FB has dipped to 83-84 but retains above-average sink; plus control; tough to get a feel for his upside, as he relies so heavily on sinkers and variety of offspeed stuff – might have to wait a year or two to get the respect he needs to be considered signable (i.e. he needs to build some of the reputation as college veterans like Hudson Randall and Kurt Heyer to be considered more than just a good college guy); 6-1, 200 pounds

640. Jefferson (MO) CC rSO LHP Dalton Friend: 90-95 FB; good CB; 6-3, 230 pounds

641. Kentucky SR LHP Alex Phillips: 84-86 FB, 88 peak; very good CU; effective 84-89 cutter; plus command; 6-4, 200 pounds

642. Michigan JR SS Derek Dennis: I’m almost certainly alone on this, but I’m not sure there is that much a gap in talent between Dennis and the draft’s consensus top college shortstop Deven Marrero; talent alone, however, doesn’t make a good prospect a good prospect – Dennis’ underwhelming and frequently interrupted by injury run at Michigan has to be taken into consideration; at his best, he still flashes the tools that made him such a highly touted prep prospect; he has average or better tools across board offensively (maybe a little less in raw power at this point) and a flashy glove with good range at SS (when his head is screwed on right); Dennis’ major problems stem from his inconsistent performances inning-to-inning – the idea that he is still a pro prospect at all must drive Michigan fans crazy; 6-3, 190 pounds

643. Azusa Pacific (CA) SR OF Brent Warren: plus runner; good range in CF; above-average power potential, but the process of going from upside to reality has been more drawn out than you’d like to see; good athlete; high profile recruit and Oregon State transfer; even as a four-year college player Warren has untapped potential to his game – he can run, defend, and there’s still enough power yet to be unearthed to make him an interesting upside play; 6-3, 180 pounds

644. Dallas Baptist rJR OF Boomer Collins: good RF arm; average speed, but good instincts helps it play up; average power upside; well-rounded backup outfielder type; Nebraska transfer; 5-11, 200 pounds

645. Riverside CC (CA) FR OF Ryan Garvey: average speed; average arm, probably enough for RF; above-average power upside; strong hit tool; may or may not have the athleticism long-term to stay in outfield, but has experience at first; originally enrolled at USC, but wound up having disappointing year at junior college instead; believed to be much more signable this year; 6-0, 190 pounds

646. UC Riverside JR RHP Mitch Patito: 91-94 FB in short bursts; solid CB; iffy command; below-average control; 6-1, 200 pounds

647. New Mexico JR RHP Austin House: 87-92 FB with good sink, 93 peak; good CU; emerging SL that is now at least average, could be better in time; 6-4, 210 pounds

648. Southern Illinois JR LHP Nathan Dorris: 86-89 FB with good sink, 91 peak; flashes plus CB; Vanderbilt transfer with the chance to be a much better pro than he showed in college, especially from a stuff standpoint; 6-3, 190 pounds

649. Rockhurst (MO) JR RHP Mark Sappington: 88-94 FB, rumors of 96 earlier in 2011 but didn’t have him there in 2012; average SL with above-average upside; iffy control; max effort delivery; 6-4, 220 pounds

650. Wesley (DE) SR SS Rob Benedict: plus speed; strong hit tool; steady defender who should stick up the middle; patient approach; 5-11, 180 pounds

651. Wake Forest JR SS Pat Blair: steady glove; average arm; some sneaky pop to the gaps, but power isn’t his game; great approach and little power likely adds up to a utility infielder ceiling, but Blair’s consistent year-to-year performances and average tools outside of the batter’s box give some indication he may just reach it; 5-10, 180 pounds

652. Texas-Pan American JR SS Angel Ibanez: strong hit tool – not a ton of power, but makes a ton of contact and controls the strike zone well; good speed; above-average arm; smart base runner; good athlete; can handle SS, but has shown defensive versatility to make utility future easy to see; 6-2, 200 pounds

653. Texas-Pan American JR RHP Dusten Knight: 88-92 FB; good CB; average CU

654. Eastern Kentucky rJR RHP Chase Greene: 91-93 FB, 94 peak; good SL; Kentucky transfer

655. Stetson SR RHP Tucker Donahue: 90-93 FB with good sink, 95-96 peak; 77-80 breaking ball needs work; below-average 79-82 CU; iffy command; 6-1, 210 pounds

656. Eastern Kentucky JR RHP Anthony Bazzani: sits mostly 87-88 FB as starter, but can really rev it up in relief: 90-95 FB as reliever, 97-98 peak; plus splitter; promising breaking ball that is inconsistent; control is an issue going forward; 6-4, 200 pounds

657. San Jacinto (TX) JC SO LHP Daniel Stumpf: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good CU; shows SL with cutter action; 6-2, 200 pounds

658. Miami-Dade (FL) JC SO RHP Myles Smith: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; above-average CU; emerging breaking ball; Missouri transfer; good athlete

659. Kent State SR LHP David Starn: 84-86 FB, 88 peak; throws CU and SL; plus command; plus control; Michael Roth of the MAC; 6-3, 200 pounds

660. Lamar JR LHP Jonathan Dziedzic: stuff is more or less average across board, but gets by on plus-plus pitchability; iffy control

661. North Carolina State JR RHP Ethan Ogburn: 88-91 FB; good CB; 6-4, 200 pounds

662. Maryland SR RHP Michael Boyden: typically sits upper-80s with FB, but velocity spike this spring has him currently between 88-92, 94 peak; shows both CB and CU; iffy control; has value as surprisingly strong armed senior sign; 6-0, 180 pounds

663. Appalachian State JR C Tyler Tewell: has seen lots of time in outfield where he is a well above-average defender, but strong arm and athleticism fit really well behind the plate in the long run; reminds me of Elon’s Alex Swim, especially in how both players are good enough all-around to advance through minors even if they have to move off catcher; 5-11, 185 pounds

664. South Carolina SR LHP Michael Roth: 85-88 FB on his best days; above-average to plus 79-80 CU that he leans on heavily; can mix in occasional SL and 75-77 CB; really good command; just funky and productive enough to have an outside shot as a lefthanded specialist out of the bullpen, but curious whether or not his splits bear this out; 6-1, 210 pounds

665. Missouri State JR 1B Luke Voit: plus power upside; good athlete; strong arm; has ample experience catching, but defense behind the plate has always been a big question – scouts have waited around to see improvement, but it hasn’t come enough to have too many believing he’ll be able to catch full-time professionally, so 1B is likely his most frequent pro spot; could come back for one last year to polish defense behind plate, but has enough thump in bat to warrant mid-round consideration now; full name: Louis Linwood Voit III; 6-3, 225 pounds

666. San Diego SR RHP Paul Sewald: 86-89 FB, 91 peak; solid upper-70s SL; average 80-83 CU; 6-2, 180 pounds

667. 3B Sean Rubalcaba (Grand Junction HS, Colorado): above-average speed; good arm; great athlete; raw talent

668. UC Davis SR LHP Dayne Quist: upper-80s FB; good CU; usable CB; great command; 5-10, 180 pounds

669. San Francisco SR LHP Jordan Remer: 88-91 FB, 94 peak; has added velocity over years; throws both an effective CB and CU; below-average control holds him back from profiling as strong lefthanded setup man; 6-2, 210 pounds

670. Penn State JR RHP John Walter: 87-91 FB, 93 peak; above-average breaking ball; cutter; below-average control; 6-5, 220 pounds

671. New Mexico JR RHP Sam Wolff: 88-92 FB, 94-95 peak; good CB; above-average SL; good CU; smooth delivery; good polish; transfer from San Diego and JC of Southern Nevada who has never been able to have all his pitches working at the same time to put up the results you’d expect from a guy with his level of stuff; 6-1, 190 pounds

672. Wichita State rSR RHP Mitch Mormann: 92-94 FB with great sink, 95-96 peak; average 83-85 SL; raw CU; command a question; one of the draft’s biggest enigmas: his path has not been typical — high school and junior college ball in Iowa, then off to LSU for a year, finally found a home at Wichita State – and he has consistently looked better in fall ball and workouts than in real deal game action; 6-6, 255 pounds

673. Pima (AZ) JC FR RHP Julio Felix (2012): 91-93 FB, 95-96 peak; above-average breaking ball; 6-0, 190 pounds

674. Dallas Baptist SR SS Joel Hutter: steady defender with the chance to stick at SS; enough speed and pop to warrant late-round consideration; 6-1, 210 pounds

675. OF Austin Anderson (Saguaro HS, Arizona): good athlete; CF range; good hit tool

676. OF Isaiah Yates (Clovis East HS, California): average speed; plus arm; strong hit tool; good power projection; 5-11, 185 pounds

678. VMI SR RHP Adam Lopez: 88-92 FB, 94-96 peak; recovering from TJ surgery; 6-5, 220 pounds

679. Austin Peay State rSO RHP Ryan Quick: 95-97 peak; 5-11, 175 pounds

680. OF Spencer Johnson (Parkview HS, Missouri): big raw power; good speed; 6-4, 210 pounds

681. Colorado Mesa SR OF Jeff Popick: good raw power, still largely untapped; good approach; average arm; average speed; 6-4, 200 pounds

682. Florida International JR OF Jabari Henry: good arm capable of holding it down in RF; average speed; enough range for CF, but might be best in corner; big raw power, but a long way away from tapping in; 6-1, 200 pounds;

683. North Carolina State rSR OF Ryan Mathews: interesting prospect who has been consistently hyped dating back to his high school days, but has never been in one place and healthy long enough for scouts to get a good look; at his best he has shown scouts plus speed, average arm strength, and good athleticism; the knock on his game coming into the year was his present below-average power due to a hitch in swing, but the coaching staff at NC State did a good job helping him tap into his significant raw power by making some adjustments at the plate; good range in CF, but probably best in a corner professionally; has slimmed down and improved athleticism over past year; 6-3, 180 pounds

684. Virginia Tech rSO OF Tyler Horan: intriguing power upside; can get too aggressive at plate, for better or worse; good athlete; average speed; good in a corner; plus throwing arm; 6-2, 225 pounds

685. Stony Brook JR OF William Carmona: plus raw power; below-average plate discipline; poor defender at present with below-average range, so a move to 3B, where I’m not sure he’d be much better, may be necessary; plus arm strength – has hit 94 off mound; 6-0, 225 pounds

686. Mount Olive (NC) JR C Geno Escalante: once a highly sought after high school prospect who has since bounced around; I don’t have much in the way of updated information on him outside of the numbers (below), but here’s what I wrote back when he was a prep catcher: defense-first catcher, with a bat that needs plenty of polish to even be considered average; name makes it sound like he should be an East Coast prospect, but he’s a California kid who is committed to attend Cal State Fullerton if he doesn’t get paid; lesser version of Steve Baron in my mind; 5-11, 215 pounds

687. Nevada JR C Carlos Escobar: really good defensive abilities highlighted by excellent footwork and soft hands; above-average arm; despite underwhelming K/BB numbers, takes a really great approach to hitting into each at bat; pretty swing; well above-average bat speed; not a ton of raw power, but can wear out the gaps when locked in; 6-3, 200 pounds

688. Oklahoma City rSR C Chad Carman: plus defender who defends well enough to warrant late-round consideration as potential backup catching option; age (23 as of May 9) works against him, but still could be of value to a team in need of a quality, professional presence to work with young pitching in low-minors; 5-10, 185 pounds

689. Northeastern (CO) CC SO 1B Nick Miller: good defender; plus arm; above-average power with the chance to hit for average power and average contact ability; Nebraska transfer; 6-3, 200 pounds

690. 1B Thomas Stallone (West Boca HS, Florida): good raw power

691. Azusa Pacific (CA) SR 1B Jordan Leyland: plus raw power; strong frame; has battled wrist injuries that have sapped power production in past; UC Irvine transfer; huge 2012 numbers must be viewed in proper context (team combined to hit .323/.400/.514 on season), but good bloodlines, experience, and power will get him drafted; 6-4, 235 pounds

692. VMI SR RHP Mike Devine: 89-92 FB with plus sink, 94-95 peak; good CU; solid SL; throws 89-92 two-seamers with sink after arm injury, mid-90s peak a thing of the past but increased movement makes him a potential reliever professionally if he gets the chance; 6-1, 190 pounds

693. High Point rSO RHP Jamie Schultz: mid-90s FB, 94 peak; flashes plus CB; coming back from TJ surgery; 5-9, 190 pounds

694. Appalachian State JR RHP Nate Hyatt: 93-95 FB, 97 peak; good yet inconsistent SL; iffy command; 6-1, 185 pounds

695. South Carolina JR RHP Colby Holmes: remember seeing him upper-80s FB with room for more coming out of high school; slowly up to consistent 88-91 FB by 2011; similar velocity in 2012, but now peaking at 93; good 80-81 CU with sink, comes out of arm clean; average at best 83-85 SL; also shows occasional CB; fairly standard middle relief prospect with the chance he could start in the low minors; 5-11, 200 pounds

696. Connecticut rJR RHP Scott Oberg: 88-91 FB; good CB; good command; opened eyes with his outstanding 2012 performances (0.99 ERA, 5-0 record); raw numbers alone could get him drafted, though the lack of knockout stuff and good yet not great peripherals are a truer indication of his ability; 6-2, 200 pounds

697. Oklahoma State JR RHP Chase Stevens: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; 78-80 CU; good 76-81 SL/CB; iffy control; good athlete; 5-10, 180 pounds

698. Rice rSO RHP Chase McDowell: 87-93 FB; potential plus CB; shows CU; good athlete; interesting power upside as a two-way prospect who also plays the outfield; Tommy John survivor; injuries have kept his overall innings down (42.2 total IP in parts of three season), but arm strength and ability to spin a breaking ball make him an interesting late-round flier if signable; 6-3, 185 pounds

699. Miami-Dade (FL) JC rSO RHP Michael Heller: 88-92 FB, 94-96 peak; good hard CB; recovering from torn ACL; iffy command; good athlete; 6-2, 190 pounds

700. North Carolina JR RHP Chris Munnelly: 88-91 FB; above-average CU; good breaking ball; plus command; has enough diversity in stuff to continue starting in pro ball, but disappointing junior year could steer him back to college; 6-2, 190 pounds

701. Miami SR LHP Eric Erickson: 88-90 FB; CB; CU; 6-0, 190 pounds

702. Houston rSR RHP Jared Ray: 90-92 FB, 93-95 peak; above-average 78-83 SL, flashes plus; have also heard SL at 86, but unconfirmed and, based on the source, somewhat dubious; iffy 81 CU; two strong pitches makes him a potential middle reliever, but he’ll have to move quick (turned 23 this past February); encouraged to see a return to health and effectiveness in 2012, despite high ERA (6.42 as of 5/15/12); 6-3, 200 pounds

703. Kennesaw State SR 1B Andy Chriscaden: big power; too many swings and misses; not a great overall approach to hitting, but no questioning the power; decent speed; average at best glove; one of many bat-only (power-only, really) first base prospects in this year’s senior college class – where he goes will be determined on drafting team preference and/or an organizational need to get a power bat into the system as quick as possible; 6-4, 220 pounds

704. Wake Forest JR LHP Brian Holmes: pitchability lefthander who leans on 86-88 FB with above-average sink; could have a little more on fastball in future; good CU; shows SL; overall, has a four-pitch mix that he commands well; better college arm than professional prospect, but has put up impressive strikeout totals without a particularly hot fastball; 6-3, 205 pounds

705. North Carolina State JR RHP Ryan Wilkins: 86-91 FB; good splitter; average SL; junior college transfer who did a nice job in first year with NC State; 6-2, 220 pounds

706. Florida State SR RHP Hunter Scantling: 87-90 FB, 91 peak; emerging SL that is still too inconsistent an offering; average CU; good athlete for his size; speaking of his size, Scantling’s physical stature has long been enticing for scouts who have waited for his talent to catch up – at this point in his development, I think it is fairly safe to say that what you see is what you get with Scantling; 6-8, 270 pounds

707. South Florida rSR RHP Derrick Stultz: 93-94 peak FB; 6-3, 190 pounds

708. Tulane rSO RHP Kyle McKenzie: looked like a future star when I saw him in high school: mid-90s FB with a really good CB; injuries have slowed his development, but he could shoot way up draft boards if he returns to Tulane (as expected) and puts together another full, injury-free season; below-average present control; 6-0, 170 pounds

709. 3B Evan Van Hoosier (Green Valley HS, Nevada): good speed; steady defender; strong hit tool; 5-11, 190 pounds

710. 3B Dalton DiNatale (Calvary Christian Academy HS, Florida): good arm strength

711. Arizona JR RHP Tyler Hale: 88-93 FB; two strong secondary pitches in a curve and change; made the note “iffy control” last season and it continues to be what holds him back; 5-10, 170 pounds

712. LSU rJR RHP Joey Bourgeois: 90-92 FB, 93-94 peak; good CU; much improved 73-79 CB; has come back strong from last year’s Tommy John surgery; 6-1, 190 pounds

713. Santa Fe (FL) CC JR RHP Felix Roque: plus 88-92 FB with late sink; plus SL; shows both CU and CB; NC State transfer; 6-4, 220 pounds

714. SS George Iskenderian (Don Bosco Prep, New Jersey): good speed

715. Princeton JR RHP Zak Hermans: 87-90 FB, 92 peak; good 82-84 SL; cutter; shows CU; 6-2, 185 pounds

716. SS Caleb Wood (Valley Vista HS, Arizona): good athlete; good defensive tools

717. Hofstra SR OF Danny Poma: good speed; strong arm; good range; gap power

718. SS Connor Moore (Brophy College Prep HS, Arizona): steady defender; above-average arm

719. SS Vance Vizcaino (Wakefield HS, North Carolina): good fielder

720. Kent State SR SS Jimmy Rider: really steady defender; patient hitter; 5-9, 170 pounds;

721. Samford SR RHP Kyle Putkonen: 90-91 FB; good CU; good 83-84 cutter

722. Hillsborough CC (FL) SO LHP Tyler Alexander: 88-92 FB with sink; good CB; good sinking CU that he relies on; good command; below-average control; great athlete; really rough spring hurts his draft stock, but stuff remains intriguing; 6-1, 180 pounds

723. Arizona JR SS Alex Mejia: flashy glove up the middle with great defensive tools; really strong baseball instincts, especially on defense – he knows when to move in on a ball, when to stay back, how much time he has to make a play, etc.; average speed, maybe 55 on a good day; strong arm; good range; there have been some reports that say he could be tried behind plate or at 3B (he could lack foot speed and/or grow off the position), but I think he’s fine sticking at SS; we’ve made it this far without mentioning his bat, so I’m sure you can guess what kind of projection he has as a hitter; be careful if you’re at work doing a Google Image search with SafeSearch off on “Alex Mejia”; 6-1, 210 pounds

724. Clemson rJR OF Thomas Brittle: plus speed; plus-plus range in CF; one of the most exciting players in college baseball, at least for my money – he’s the kind of guy you’d pay to watch chase down fly balls and run the bases; College of Charleston transfer; 5-8, 170 pounds

725. Tulane JR SS Garrett Cannizaro: solid speed; good defender; potential plus glove at third;

726. Marietta (OH) SR SS Tim Saunders: steady defender; plus arm; good speed; 6-0, 175 pounds

727. Oregon JR SS JJ Altobelli: some pop; plus arm; chance to be well above-average at SS; good speed; intriguing hit tool; 6-1, 190 pounds

728. Shippensburg (PA) SR OF Cody Kulp: plus arm; average speed; good range in RF; above-average raw power; below-average plate discipline, but has shown some improvement; 6-2, 200 pounds

729. South Carolina JR OF Evan Marzilli: good athlete; plus speed; came into year thinking he had above-average range in CF and plus range in corner, but now think I like him as plus in CF as well – he’s a great, instinctual defender with speed to catch up to almost everything; solid plate discipline; strong hit tool; improving pop, mostly to gaps; though his numbers may not show it, he’s on the short list of most improved players in 2012; 5-11, 175 pounds

730. Samford SR RHP Josh Martin: low-90s FB; very good CB

731. Yale SR RHP Pat Ludwig: upper-80s FB, 91 peak; has enough of a SL to profile as late-round middle relief prospect

732. Tennessee-Martin JR RHP Alec Mills: 88-92 FB; average breaking ball; new CU; plus FB command; 6-4, 170 pounds

733. Nova Southeastern (FL) JR RHP Cody Stiles: 90-94 FB; SL with potential; really good CB; shows CU; below-average control; transfer from UNC; 6-2, 185 pounds

734. SS Jordan Striegel (Indiana): strong arm; above-average range; good speed

735. SS Teddy Turner (Kingwood HS, Texas): strong arm; 6-3, 185 pounds

736. Georgia JR SS Kyle Farmer: good defensive tools, just enough to stick at SS; strong enough arm, average overall; average to just above-average range; good athlete; some pop; average speed

737. Cal State Fullerton JR SS Richy Pedroza: very strong defender; good range; strong arm; great bunter; plus speed, but doesn’t utilize it on the base paths like he could; can play all over the infield; makes good use of his small strike zone; 5-6, 140 pounds

738. Central Arizona JC SO SS Jorge Flores: plus defensive ability alone makes him a prospect of note; contract-oriented, leadoff approach but hit tool isn’t particularly loud; smart on bases, but not really a burner (speed more good than great); 5-6, 160 pounds

739. Long Beach State JR SS Matt Duffy: nice swing; can play average defense at least at all spots on diamond; utility future; 6-2, 170 pounds

740. 2B Brian Almand (Paul VI HS, New Jersey): strong arm; good defender

741. 2B Zachary Lain (Cheyenne Central HS, Wyoming): good athlete; good speed; defensively versatile; 6-2, 185 pounds

742. Rice JR 2B Christian Stringer: average speed; solid defender

743. Missouri State SR 2B Brent Seifert: prepare yourself for lots of averages with Seifert, a rock solid college ballplayer with some big league upside; above-average hit tool; average at best power; average at best speed, and that’s generous; average at best arm; above-average defensive tools, can also handle 3B but arm and range are both stretched to limits there; most impressed by what he’s done with wood; 6-0, 200 pounds

744. Missouri State SR 2B Kevin Medrano: above-average speed; power upside is limited; fringy arm suited for 2B – the inability to play on the left side limits his utility future; good range; plus bat speed helps him make consistent hard contact; 6-1, 160 pounds

745. Santa Fe (FL) CC SO 2B Shane Kennedy: has always hit, but uptick in power has scouts wondering how strong his Clemson commitment really is – as his body has filled out, power has come and come fast; defensive versatility and experience at all four infield positions is a point in his favor; part of me thinks he’s a legitimate draft sleeper right now while part of me wants to see what he can do in the ACC first; 6-2, 190 pounds

746. Eastern Kentucky SR 2B Richie Rodriguez: solid defender; credited for having a tremendous approach and the numbers (below) bear it out; average speed, but uses it well; not the toolsiest player in college ball, but production warrants a look on draft day; 5-10, 180 pounds

747. Louisiana-Lafayette JR LHP Jordan Harrison: all I technically have on him is the following – “battles every at bat, lefty who keeps the ball down, groundball machine”; 6-1, 180 pounds

748. Miami (OH) JR RHP Brooks Fiala: 89-92 FB; average CB; plus CU; also mixes in SL; 6-2, 190 pounds

749. Sam Houston State rSR RHP Justin Jackson: 88-91 FB, 93 peak; good 73-76 CB; 78-81 CU; also throws SL; TJ survivor; 6-4, 200 pounds

750. Dallas Baptist JR 2B Austin Elkins: good athlete; above-average speed; surprising pop for his size, but quick wrists and good pitch recognition helps him drive any type of pitch, hard or soft; interesting prospect on a team full of underrated players; 5-11, 185 pounds

Signing Day

13 Jul 2012 3:09 PM / Leave a comment

Ah, signing day. We’ve finally made it. Things have been quiet here over the past month because, let’s be honest, not much happens in the world of amateur baseball between the completion of the draft in early June and mid-July. Sure, you’ve got your signings trickling in here and there, plus amusing rumors of pre-draft deals gone wrong (the Alec Rash text message fiasco is a personal favorite) and the dramatic “will he or won’t he” sagas that play out near the top of the draft each year (I’ll say Gausman will, Appel and Giolito won’t…though the Giolito feeling is based more on wishful thinking than anything concrete — selfishly I’d rather see him at UCLA than on a rival club’s pitching staff).

You also have analysts rushing to praise or bury each team’s draft haul, a silly exercise (good draft = team that picked all your pre-draft favorites, bad draft = team that didn’t) made even sillier when done prior to knowing which players will sign before the deadline. There can be value there and I’m likely to do some post-signing day musing myself, so I shouldn’t dismiss all of the post-draft analysis as “silly,” but when done so quickly after the draft it seems like the whole exercise is merely a rehashing of what was said before the draft with no room for any deeper thought, like stopping and wondering why a pro scouting staff that has seen a player dozens of times over multiple seasons may have picked a guy higher than one random internet dude with a spotty track record of judging talent and a few decent contacts had him ranked on his own personal big board.

Finally, there is also plenty of tournament and showcase ball to watch if you don’t mind travelling to exotic locales (I kid, but Durham is a nice town) and sitting in relentless summer heat. This is most relevant to my interests, and should hopefully bear some meaningful content on the site in the near future. I’ve resisted the urge to post immediate reactions to what I’ve seen so far this summer because a) I like waiting until the end of the summer showcase period to present a fuller picture on each player’s prospect stock heading into 2013, and b) it is summer, a time where even the most disciplined unpaid writer can get distracted by, well, just about anything besides sitting in front of a computer screen.

All of that is in the past. Let’s talk about the future. Over the weekend I’ll be finalizing all of the 2012 draft rankings that I didn’t get to before the big day. I know this is a ridiculous way of doing things, what with the draft being completed over a month ago, but I’m a weird guy who needs to have one thing 100% out of the way before moving on to the next topic. Once all the ’12 rankings are finished, then we can move on to some fun, random posts (big league debuts of interest, retrospectives on old rankings, early impressions on ’13 college prospects) to buy time until the first big board for 2013 (tentative target date: late August) is ready to go.

Also, I might change the name and design layout of the site. So stayed tuned for that. As always, thanks for reading, commenting, and emailing.

2012 MLB Draft: Top 100 Hitters

4 Jun 2012 7:32 PM / 1 Comment on 2012 MLB Draft: Top 100 Hitters

WordPress is being uncooperative tonight, so the pitchers will have to wait. Thankfully, I managed to get the top 100 hitters in order before the site crashed. It stinks not having the full big board available, but it’s better than nothing, right?

2. OF Byron Buxton (Appling County HS, Georgia): 93-94 peak FB; plus-plus (80) speed; dead pull hitter; loves to swing; raw, but immensely talented; above-average to plus arm, closer to above-average now but accurate; crazy quick hands; bat speed, bat speed, bat speed; BJ Upton comp from an athletic standpoint makes sense; weirdest comp ever: Mike Schmidt, at least in terms of distance from plate and current swing; tremendous athlete; plus raw power; CF range if his instincts catch up, otherwise a potential Gold Glove winner in RF; 80 speed/60-70 arm/70 range

3. Florida JR C Mike Zunino: legitimate plus raw power, but expected to be above-average in-game professionally as length in swing could cause some issues on high velocity arms; plus arm strength; good athlete for his height and weight; plus defensive tools behind plate, surprisingly mobile; calling card is his power, but underrated as a natural hitter; value comes on field, obviously, but added bonus of being a take charge leader is nice for the position; more than just a flashy strong arm, also really accurate; swing can get too long at times which could expose him against good breaking balls going forward; also gets bonus points for calling own pitches; I like Zunino a ton, so don’t take this comment as an attempt to hedge my bets, but rather an attempt to keep coverage fair and balanced: due to his inconsistent approach and reports of below-average physical conditioning, I think it is fair to have some serious doubt about Zunino as a sure-thing, franchise player, top five pick; 6-2, 220 pounds

4. OF Albert Almora (Mater Academy, Florida): plus arm strength; plus speed; shows all five tools; big upside at plate; lots of power, but swing needs retooling; almost plus range in CF; quick bat; aggressive base runner; some debate at start of spring about how good his tools really are, but he can play; should be above-average (with plus upside) in CF for a long time; great athlete, good instincts; above-average power with plus upside; above-average arm; average speed; hit tool is better than most HS guys, 70 upside with a great looking swing; so smart on bases, great at reading pitchers; really strong approach; 6-2, 180 pounds; R/R

5. OF David Dahl (Oak Mountain HS, Alabama): good speed; plus arm strength, clocked at 95 from outfield; strong defender; aggressive on base paths; uses whole field; very mature hitter; biggest question for me is power upside long-term; Colby Rasmus comp; enough instincts for CF; update: above-average speed; above-average arm; 6-2, 190 pounds; L/R

6. C Stryker Trahan (Acadiana HS, Louisiana): plus hit tool; honest above-average speed; plus bat speed; good arm; swing is textbook; lets ball travel deep, but quick hands allow it; athletic behind dish; shows plus raw power; most impressed by his power to all fields; if Blake Swihart could run, he’d be Trahan – also think the Wil Myers comps are warranted; the big question is all about his defensive future, but I think he’s athletic enough to be given the chance to work with pro coaches and get everyday reps; 6-1, 220 pounds

7. SS CJ Hinojosa (Klein Collins HS, Texas): power upside is immense, due mostly to crazy bat speed (swing is level); steady defender at short with tools to be even better; really like his quick bat, but swing can get out of whack at times; impressive arm strength; think he’ll stick up the middle pretty easily; 5-11, 185 pounds

8. OF Courtney Hawkins (Mary Carroll HS, Texas): very muscular build; good speed; strong arm; more present power than majority of class; plus raw power; lots of swing and miss and some pitch recognition issues; average or better speed; RF professionally; has improved a great deal across the board in last calendar year, especially on defense; good instincts in CF, but might not be quick enough; plus arm; speed, power, and arm will take him far; reminds me so much of Adam Jones it’s scary; 6-2, 215 pounds; R/R

9. 3B Trey Williams (Valencia HS, California): big hit tool; potential plus to plus-plus raw power; advanced idea of how to hit, e.g. big opposite field power threat; strong arm often categorized as plus; potential star defensively at third base; great reactions and instincts; outstanding athlete; plus bat speed; plus hit tool; slightly above-average speed; very strong; has that special sound; pitch recognition to be monitored; super quick bat, solid approach: very patient, lightning in wrists; swing needs some work, but what is there is a fine building block; strong arm, steady defender; below-average speed, but quick feet and reactions at third; should be an average defender at worst with much more upside than that; big-time raw power, personally I’m a believer; 6-2, 210 pounds; R/R

10. 3B Tanner Rahier (Palm Desert HS, California): plus arm strength; accurate arm; quick bat; good power; good fielder with well above-average range; intriguing raw power, above-average for me; not toolsy, but gets it done; ball jumps off bat, special sound; likely a 3B as a pro; impressive pitch recognition; Evan Longoria comp; only question for me is power upside, hit tool is outstanding; some believe he’ll stick at SS, Gold Glove upside at 3B; 6-2, 205 pounds; R/R

11. Clemson JR 3B Richie Shaffer: really good defender at first, but more average on a good day at third; plus raw power to all fields; plus raw arm strength (has hit 94 off mound), above-average in total after accuracy is factored in; made outstanding recovery from broken hamate bone, minimal power loss; good athlete; average runner; not entirely convinced he’s a third baseman forever, but believe he can play either 3B or a corner OF spot through his first big league (six year) contract; 6-3, 200 pounds

12. 3B Joey Gallo (Bishop Gorman HS, Nevada): plus raw power from left side; good athlete; plus arm; no problem against quality arms, has hit both high velocity and big league quality breaking balls; similar to Richie Shaffer defensively – both have plus arms and enough athleticism to play third base for a bit before transitioning to right field; some prefer him on mound (88-93 FB; 94-98 peak with some of the easiest velocity of any prep in recent memory; good 74-76 CB; mid-80s CU; 77-81 SL needs work), but his kind of power is hard to pass up; not a perfect comp, but there’s some Kris Bryant to his game; really want to move him up over Richie Shaffer for the top spot, and for some organizations I think he’s worth the risk, but the relative safety of the college bat pushes Shaffer just ahead; 6-5, 220 pounds; L/R

13. Georgia Southern JR OF Victor Roache: raw, but talented; plus athlete; plus raw power; a hair over average speed; average arm; willing to wait for his pitch and drive it; has had his swing doubted at every level, but has hit everywhere he’s been; much will be known about Roache’s medicals based on his draft position as his broken wrist is a concern going forward – if he goes on the first day, as expected, we can assume everything checked out more or less fine, but if he falls then the question about his long-term prognosis will be out there; his final position on this board is subject to change pending any news on his health, but Roache’s impact bat is one of the draft’s most overscrutinized and thus, in my opinion, underrated bright spots; 6-1, 225 pounds

14. 3B Rio Ruiz (Bishop Amat HS, California): very strong hands; plus arm; very quick bat; no problem with velocity; big league hitter; popular Eric Chavez comp that makes sense; 6-2, 200 pounds; L/R; good athlete; really intrigued by bat; patient

15. 3B Addison Russell (Pace HS, Florida): good athlete; consistent hard contact; plus defensive tools; excellent range; great bat speed; too aggressive at times, but has worked hard to improve approach; plus arm; really good athlete; has worked hard to put on muscle, looked like a corner infielder all the way; now they say he is athletic enough to stick up middle again though he still looks like a future 3B to me; very quick bat; 6-1, was up to 215 pounds; down to 185 now; above-average speed; huge raw power; questionable hit tool; R/R

16. 3B Corey Seager (Northwest Cabarrus HS, North Carolina): good athlete; strong arm; great feel on defense, could be star at third; line drive machine; swing holds back power upside for now, but if he grows into some power, watch out; already more pop than his brother; patient approach; 55 speed; 6-3, 200 pounds; L/R; should settle into average speed

17. Stony Brook JR OF Travis Jankowski: plus speed; great CF range; average at best arm; below-average present power, but I think there’s more pop coming; potential plus hit tool; great athlete; really good approach, especially with two strikes; awesome instincts, great first step; has struggled some on Friday nights, much better against lefthanded pitchers; I hate piling on with the obvious comp, but I think there are lots of similarities between Jankowski and the college version of Jacoby Ellsbury – to take it a step further, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a power spike similar to Ellsbury’s, though perhaps not quite as drastic, once Jankowski hits pro ball; 6-1, 190 pounds

18. Purdue JR C Kevin Plawecki: tremendous approach, as good as any hitter in this year’s college class; still a raw defender, but above-average tools are there; average arm, but it plays up due to much improved footwork and a quick release; good athlete; above-average hit tool; hits consistent line drives tony and makes a ton of contact; like the power, but others aren’t solid his swing will allow for much more than gap power – I think there’s 20 homer upside here; there was some question heading into the year, but will definitely stick behind plate; uses the whole field well as a hitter; high marks for all things intangible; given the choice between Zunino in the first or Plawecki later, I’d wait it out and grab Purdue’s backstop who might have more long-term upside; 6-2, 210 pounds

19. Arkansas JR 3B Matt Reynolds: line drive machine who lacks present strength and swing plane for big power, but makes up for it with consistent hard contact all over the field; above-average speed that plays up on bases; outstanding defender with a strong arm and enough athletic ability to play up the middle at times; could even be tried at catcher, though I think a more likely conversion would be to 2B – could even be tried as an everyday SS if a team is feeling especially frisky; I think a player in-between Kyle Seager and Chase Headley is a realistic ceiling for Reynolds – some speed, some pop, but lots of value tied up in defense and on-base ability; 6-1, 200 pounds

20. Stanford JR 3B Stephen Piscotty: gap power, but could be more with added strength; often too aggressive for his own good, but compensates by showing great plate coverage; impressive ability to use the whole field; average speed; good arm; above-average hit tool that I wasn’t sold on to start the year, but can now admit is one of the college class’ best – he’s really fun to watch hit; good enough defender at third to at least get a chance to start there in pro ball, but less likely to stick there long-term than Richie Shaffer – RF makes for a fine backup plan in the event a switch is necessary; like the hit tool, his power is better than I first gave him credit for – the gap power should give way to more over the fence pop as he focuses 100% on hitting professionally; not to keep repeating myself, but Piscotty’s bat has really impressed me more than I expected this year – he has a very quiet swing, mature approach, and is capable of hitting any pitch in any count, including pitchers’ pitches; above-average athlete; have personally compared him to James Darnell in the past, but should have higher ceiling; 6-3, 215 pounds

21. 3B Carson Kelly (Westview HS, Oregon): 88-92 FB; plus 78-82 CU with fade; 73-80 CB; low-80s SL with plus upside; can really swing the bat; plus bat speed; no problem with high velocity arms; plus arm; strong; agile; good approach; above-average defensive tools; can’t decide on his pro position, lean towards 3B; slow, but not glacial; 6-2, 210 pounds; R/R

22. 3B Daniel Robertson (Upland HS, California): potential plus defender, but more in the steady style and not so spectacular; plus arm; big hit tool; has raw power, but doesn’t know how to use it just yet; does show as much opposite field power as any high school hitter in recent memory; 6-1, 185 pounds; R/R

23. Arizona State JR SS Deven Marrero: advanced defender with plus tools (great range, soft hands, plus arm); average power potential, gap power at present; average speed, plays up a bit in game; he’d also work well at 2B or 3B, though a position switch is not necessary; despite the down year, Marrero has impressed in by hitting a variety of stuff – i.e. he’s not struggling for lack of being able to hit a good fastball or misidentifying breaking balls; above-average hit tool; even though I’ve never been top-five pick high on Marrero as a prospect, it bears mentioning that he’s a ballplayer with no obvious below-average tool and a worthy first round pick – closer to the back than the front, but still worth a first round grade; interesting information from watching him/parsing the stats: he absolutely kills lefties, but struggles against righties; still living off his impressive freshman season to some extent, but scouts remain high on him as somebody who will settle in as one of the top 5-8 defenders at shortstop in the game while hitting better with wood than what he showed in college – his ceiling may not be as an All-Star caliber player, but he could still be a first-division starter; 6-1, 195 pounds

24. Cal Poly JR OF Mitch Haniger: plus defensive upside in RF, can hang in center despite average at best speed; very strong arm; above-average raw power, 20+ HR upside; strong; average at best hit tool yet still better than expected (at least by me) coming into the year; good athlete; improved approach in 2012 as he has matured a great deal as a hitter throughout his college career; 6-2, 215 pounds

25. 3B Mitch Nay (Hamilton HS, Arizona): impressive bat; questionable defender, could wind up in RF; super strong arm; easy to love his bat speed; above-average power upside; slow; 6-3, 200 pounds

26. 3B David Thompson (Westminster Christian HS, Florida): huge power; good approach; really quick bat; quick enough for LF, but has chance to stick at third; strong arm befitting a QB; long swing

27. OF Lewis Brinson (Coral Springs HS, Florida): plus (70) to plus-plus speed; strong arm; great athlete; huge upside; big (60-65) raw power; very raw; great athlete; reminds me of Austin Wilson as a prep player but with the ability to play CF, though he could be plus RF; plus arm or better, depending on his release; Florida commitment; more of a baseball player than other toolsy prospects; quick bat; pull power; love his defense; Phillies kind of player; 6-4, 185 pounds

28. OF Jameis Winston (Hueytown HS, Alabama): plus arm strength; plus-plus athlete; plus speed; plus CF range; power upside remains to be seen; can really hit; super quick bat; others really like his power; think scouts got discouraged about his baseball future once it was clear he was going the football route at Florida State, but his baseball tools are outstanding; 6-4, 200 pounds; S/R

29. OF Nick Williams (Galveston Ball HS, Texas): plus athlete; advanced feel for hitting; patient approach; great athlete; impressive speed; long strider; average arm; see a lot of Dom Brown in his game, for better or worse; I’m stubbornly sticking with Williams as an elite prospect because the tools he showed before this spring’s struggles are still there; 6-3, 200 pounds; L/L

30. OF Anthony Alford (Petal HS, Mississippi): above-average power upside; plus-plus athlete; plus arm; can play any outfield spot, but could be great in corner (LF); above-average to plus (70) speed; strong; 6-2, 220 pounds

31. SS Gavin Cecchini (Barbe HS, Louisiana): good athlete; good speed; solid defender; more power than you’d expect, at least average as a pro; should be able to stick at shortstop, but more steady than spectacular there; above-average arm; plus hit tool; like his hit tool, not sure on the rest; I think he’ll have to move off SS, but we’ll see

32. Virginia JR 2B Stephen Bruno: good defender with plus range and plus arm – could be good enough to play shortstop professionally, though that’s currently the minority opinion; I’m in said minority, but put him with the 2B group (he could be a plus defender with more reps at 3B, by the way) to hedge my bets; above-average speed; plenty of pop; Bruno is one of my favorite players from this year’s college class – he’s a natural born hitter with emerging power and a good idea of the strike zone who rarely gets cheated during an at bat; if he doesn’t settle in as an everyday player anywhere, he has the high floor of a quality big league utility infielder; 5-9, 165 pounds

33. SS Adrian Marin (Gulliver Prep HS, Florida): plus arm strength; confirmed plus speed; needs to add some bulk; steady defender who should stick at SS, could be very good at 2B; no problems with velocity; gap power; has “it” whatever that is; 6-0, 170 pounds

34. Florida JR SS Nolan Fontana: average to above-average speed; good defender who manages to get by without elite defensive tools – positioning and instincts go a long way; average hit tool; little power, but enough pop to run into one from time to time – big improvement in this area in 2012; highlight of his game is without a doubt his great approach; Fontana never takes off an at bat, always working deep counts and being sure to swing at pitches he knows he can handle and/or waste; more physical strength than given credit for; should have a long professional career in some capacity, whether it is as a starting middle infielder or an above-average utility player; as much as I like Fontana (and I really, really like Fontana), I have to pass along the comp I heard a scout who saw him play a lot this year throw on him: former first round pick Russ Adams, a similarly polished college shortstop who didn’t have enough punch to make a meaningful pro impact; 5-11, 185 pounds

35. TCU JR C Josh Elander: plus power potential; above-average arm strength but it plays up even more due to quick release; footwork behind plate still needs work; above-average foot speed; physically mature and very strong; one of the best overall tool sets of any college prospect, but Elander is no different from many other prospects of this archetype – with great tools often comes a high degree of rawness; I believe he’ll have no problems sticking behind the plate, and think he has a chance to be a starting caliber catcher; could follow the Eli Marrero career path if his defense continues to lag behind his bat; 6-0, 205 pounds

36. C Wyatt Mathisen (Calallen HS, Texas): strong and accurate arm; good defensive tools, but needs reps; really nice patient approach; quick bat; slightly below-average speed, but good for catcher; 6-1, 210 pounds

37. C Clint Coulter (Union HS, Washington): good defensive tools, but a little stiff behind plate; may or may not stick at catcher long-term, but I’m a believer; little Jeff Bagwell in his crouch and swing setup; good athlete; plus arm, but needs to polish up footwork; pro body; loud contact; strong; big league caliber defensive tools for me, not all agree; above-average arm; really interesting power; fun player to watch who impacts the game in a multitude of ways; 6-3, 220 pounds

38. 1B Nathan Mikolas (Bradford HS, Wisconsin): strong hit tool; above-average power upside; good athlete; really smart young hitter; quick bat; can hit to all fields; questionable defender and athlete; best position is batter’s box; has also played some OF; 6-2, 200 pounds

39. OF Jesse Winker (Olympia HS, Florida): projects as LF, but a really good one; above-average raw power; really strong hit tool; plus arm strength, above-average in total due to accuracy and iffy mechanics; lightning quick bat; pretty lefthanded swing; patient approach; love the bat here; opposite field power is no joke; present power is legit; 6-3, 200 pounds; L/L

40. OF DJ Davis (Stone HS, Mississippi): plus-plus (80) speed; gap power, more there; improved approach; interesting power upside (double digit); CF range; weak arm; plus CF range; 5-11, 170 pounds

41. OF Max White (Williston HS, Florida): above-average to plus (closer to plus) speed; plus hit tool; plus arm strength; has put on strength and added power; pretty swing; present hit tool is iffy, but bat speed is there; high level CF tools; 6-2, 185 pounds

42. Florida State SR OF James Ramsey: you’ll read lots of averages in his reports, which might not excite many, but those are actually a testament to the hard work he has put in since arriving on campus – Ramsey has come as far as any college player that I can remember in recent memory; above-average hit tool; average at best defender; average range; average at best speed; average arm; average power; was always considered a LF only professionally, but his range has improved a great deal in 2012 – can now play a decent enough CF to play there in a pinch; gets good jumps despite not having blazing speed; there were some rumors that he could be tried at 2B professionally, but I’m not sure the team that drafts him will want to mess with his bat that way; he now uses the whole field so much better than when I last saw him (100% pull-heavy) that he looks like a new player; still unsure of his pro ceiling, but I think his bat is good enough to find him a role in some capacity; 6-0, 200 pounds

43. California JR 2B Tony Renda: gifted pure hitter who was once considered a butcher in the field, but has improved a tremendous amount to the point that he is now considered at least average; will make all the plays hit at him, but range is nothing to brag about; has worked really hard to improve all-around, so makeup is not a question; now steady enough defensively to stick up the middle, though he’ll have to continue working as he progresses through minors – it’s admittedly a stretch, but I’ve heard his defense/desire to improve his defense (not great/off the charts) combination compared to a young Chase Utley, a player who few believed would ever be average at 2B but worked and worked until one day becoming one of the top defenders in the game in his prime; average at worst speed, has been timed slightly better; if his power comes as some expect, he could have enough bat to play LF; reminds me a little bit of last year’s favorite Tommy La Stella, but higher national profile will get him off board earlier; 5-10, 180 pounds

44. Oklahoma City JR C Dane Phillips: has seen time in RF as well as behind the plate; average arm strength; above-average power upside, but better hit tool; slow, but, hey, he’s a catcher, right?; I’ve long been on record in believing in Phillips sticking behind the plate long-term, citing his progress year-to-year rather than his current ability; well known as a well-traveled man: transferred from OK State to Arkansas, where he was ruled ineligible, before landing at NAIA school Oklahoma City; tools are there to be a big league starting catcher; 6-1, 200 pounds

45. Miami SR C Peter O’Brien: nothing has changed when it comes to O’Brien’s basic scouting report: plus-plus power and a strong arm, but below-average everywhere else; what has changed is his level of competition – doing what he did in the ACC has opened some eyes, and rightfully so; his hit tool isn’t as strong and he’s a better bet to stick behind the plate, but I think a comparison between O’Brien and last year’s preeminent college power hitter CJ Cron has some merit – if O’Brien had been moved off of catcher coming into the year, I wonder if scouts would appreciate his bat more rather than focusing on the negatives of his defense; 6-5, 225 pounds

46. Buffalo JR C Tom Murphy: plus raw power; good athlete; good catcher speed, average overall; above-average arm strength; came into year with many calling his defense “passable,” but in need of improvement – well, he’s improved a lot in the past four months, and now the only question surrounding his defense is how good he’ll continue to get; Murphy is a well-rounded player with enough power to profile as a potential starting catcher; 6-1, 220 pounds

47. Washington JR 3B Jake Lamb: plus raw lefty power; average defender; plenty of arm strength; previous two points could be added together and lead to a potential switch to catcher professionally, though his progress with the bat has slowed this talk; has flashed big league tools for years and now production is finally catching up – should be a better pro than college player once adjustments are made to his swing; above-average big league starter upside; 6-3, 210 pounds

48. Purdue JR 3B Cameron Perkins: above-average power upside; interesting profile as a hitter: he’s a well-known hacker, but with low strikeout totals and a well above-average ability to hit for contact; average speed; average defender; could be very good in RF; lets ball get very deep on hands; strong arm; good athlete; 6-5, 200 pounds; bad-ball hitter; hard to strikeout; 6-5, 200 pounds

49. OF Andrew Pullin (Centralia HS, Washington): above-average arm; above-average speed; big raw power, but inconsistent in swing setup; more solid across the board than a standout in one area; little bit of Utley in swing; 6-0, 185 pounds; L/L

50. OF Kolby Copeland (Parkway HS, Louisiana): very good athlete; good power; strong arm; love his approach; 6-2, 185 pounds

51. OF Braden Bishop (St. Francis HS, California): good speed; great athlete; high level glove in center field; great smarts on bases; strong arm; gap power; strong hit tool; 6-1, 180 pounds; R/R

52. OF Josh Henderson (First Baptist Christian HS, Virginia): gorgeous swing; gifted natural hitter; patient approach; good power; average speed; stuck in OF corner; average arm; average range; plus bat speed; 6-0, 190 pounds; L/L

53. OF Austin Aune (Argyle HS, Texas): pretty lefthanded swing; great athlete; first round tools; football star who is a questionable sign; good runner; strong arm; can hit the ball anywhere it is pitched; 6-3, 190 pounds

54. Texas Tech JR 2B Jamodrick McGruder: as you’d expect, the college 2B class is more steady than spectacular so any plus ability you see is worth getting super excited about – McGruder is a plus athlete with plus speed and a plus arm; he’s also a solid defender with the chance to improve as he gets more comfortable in the infield; some teams may view him as a potential CF due to his speed and arm; above-average hit tool with enough pop to play everyday at the next level; 5-7, 170 pounds

55. OF Rhett Wiseman (Buckingham Browne & Nichols HS, Massachusetts): plus raw power; above-average to plus speed; good range in CF; iffy arm, but accurate; very raw at plate; also raw in field; swing needs work, inconsistent; have liked his showcase performances; 6-1, 200 pounds; L/R

56. OF Vahn Bozoian (Ayala HS, California): big righthanded power upside; questionable hit tool; plus-plus arm strength, but not always accurate; can handle big velocity; 6-5, 210 pounds

57. OF Fernelys Sanchez (George Washington HS, New York): plus-plus speed; can be too aggressive, but I like what I’ve seen out of his approach, especially as a spoiler; huge defensive tools; remain intrigued by hit tool; 6-3, 200 pounds

58. Chipola (FL) JC SO OF Andrew Toles: plus speed; plus arm; plus range in CF; kicked off team at Tennessee, but has rebounded nicely both on and off the field at junior college; easy player to like because his path to the big leagues is clear – he’s a defensive dynamo who can really run with enough pop to help keep his on-base abilities evolving over time; the popular comp (Michael Bourn) seems like a really fitting one; 5-10, 185 pounds

59. Rice rJR OF Jeremy Rathjen: above-average speed, power, and arm all give him the look and feel of a starting big league RF if he puts it all together; had reputation of being too aggressive at plate — mostly from being too jumpy early in counts, swinging at pitchers’ pitches — but has worked hard at Rice to hone his plate discipline; good defensive feel; coming off ACL injury, but you wouldn’t know it from breakout season; have heard comps to fellow native Texans Hunter Pence and Brad Hawpe; in a lean year for college bats, Rathjen stands out as one of the few potential starting-caliber players with All-Star upside; 6-5, 200 pounds

60. Texas A&M JR OF Tyler Naquin: plus-plus arm; pretty swing; above-average to plus speed; plus hit tool; reminds me a little of a super-charged version of Alabama OF Taylor Dugas – similar style of play, but every tool a grade (or more) better; better contemporary comparison may be Travis Jankowski; good enough to play CF, though he hasn’t gotten many chances to show it in college; can drill a fastball, but pitch recognition is an issue – like many non-big leaguers he struggles with good breaking stuff; started to show he can go the other way with the better breaking stuff as the year went on; emerging power, but will need to needs to continue to add muscle if he wants to drive the ball against professional pitching; currently his power plays mostly to the gaps; tons of plate coverage; as a CF, Naquin is a legitimate first day prospect; 6-2, 180 pounds

61. West Chester (PA) SR 2B Joe Wendle: pre-season FAVORITE who earned his all-caps designation; easily the best local (to me) player, so I got the chance to see him in person fairly regularly the past two springs; no clear above-average tool, but his present skills are excellent; average speed that plays up due to smart base running and instincts in field; really like the hit tool, swing likes a big leaguer; should be good defender at 2B in time – he’s not a natural, but he gets it done; solid arm; 6-1, 190 pounds

62. 2B Alex Bregman (Albuquerque Academy, New Mexico): very strong; big power upside; gifted natural hitter; talented at all defensive spots, including short; really good athlete; nimble behind plate; outstanding approach; good speed; most likely a 2B professionally, but can also catch; improved defense behind plate before injury; average at best arm; showing some ability behind plate, but its early; wowed by his hitting ability; 5-11, 185 pounds; R/R

63. OF Bralin Jackson (Raytown South HS, Missouri): quick bat; good speed; good raw power; great athlete; above-average arm; good CF range that could be better with practice; bat is a work in progress; raw all-around, but athleticism and tools make him must follow; like the swing a lot, almost like a lefthanded swing in a righthanded hitting body; 6-0, 180 pounds; R/L

64. OF Ty Moore (Mater Dei HS, California): plus hit tool despite unorthodox swing; above-average (55ish) speed; strong enough arm; just knows how to hit; doesn’t have range for CF or power upside for corner, so tweener status limits his ceiling; 6-0, 185 pounds

65. OF Skye Bolt (Holy Innocents HS, Georgia): plus arm strength; above-average speed; interesting lefthanded power; good range; very good athlete; should be good CF in time, has speed to make up for mistakes; very accurate arm; 6-2, 180 pounds; R/R

66. OF Brett Phillips (Seminole HS, Florida): plus-plus arm strength; 55 speed; 6-1, 185 pounds; above-average range in CF with time; smart hitter; swing needs retooling; average power upside, but will have to work to unlock it

67. Texas JR OF Jonathan Walsh: advanced approach; strong arm; above-average power; big league bat speed; profiles as type of player with the chance to be a better pro hitter than he showed in college – raw physical tools have outpaced his production thus far; outside chance he’ll be announced at catcher, his high school position, on draft day – if that’s the case, expect said announcement to have come way before than many national outlets are currently predicting; from 2009: tremendous athlete with questionable defense behind the plate who is a prime candidate for a position switch; best speed in the catching class; advanced bat with ML-approach should and raw power wins him a place in my heart; I’ve heard a Jayson Werth comp that is just crazy enough for me to buy Walsh as a worthwhile high round draft pick; Texas commit; 6-3, 220 pounds

68. Wake Forest rJR OF Mac Williamson: impressive raw tools, emphasis on raw; above-average to plus arm strength; too aggressive at plate, gets himself out too often; I’ve long wanted to see him move back behind plate, but realize that dream is dead – as it is, he’s a good defender with the prototypical arm for RF; physically mature and very strong; plus power upside; above-average speed, but slow starter – once he gets underway, you see his speed; much improved as hitter in 2012, chasing fewer bad balls; Williamson is interesting for a lot of reasons, not the least of which being his consistently strong power performances and improved plate discipline; if it all comes together in pro ball, Williamson is a five-tool player (four of which are decidedly above-average, the most questionable tool being his bat) with big league starter upside – he profiles very similarly to Adam Brett Walker as a hitter and athlete, but with a higher floor based on his added defensive value; has also shown promise on the mound over the years: 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good sinker; good CB; shows CU; 6-4, 240 pounds

69. Jacksonville JR OF Adam Brett Walker: plus power upside; popular John Mayberry Jr. comps, especially in terms of frame makes a lot of sense; I’ll take the minority view and state that I think he has the chops to be an average RF as pro, but acknowledge that he could be very good defensively at 1B; average at best speed, but not for long as his body fills out; swing isn’t as long as you’d think and he’s a more refined ballplayer than often given credit; average hit tool; average at best arm; I think Walker gets an unfair reputation as a hulking all or nothing slugger who will have to hit 30+ homers to have any kind of long-term value; with a score of 45s/50s across the board, Walker’s game is relatively well-rounded – though, of course, it is still his power that will make him a potential big league regular or not; 6-5, 225 pounds

70. Texas Tech JR OF Barrett Barnes: plus raw power; good bat speed; above-average speed; by all accounts possesses above-average CF range, but I think his body will eventually send him to LF; good enough arm, though it is easily his weakest tool; good athlete; strong; 6-2, 220 pounds

71. Kentucky JR 2B Alex Yarbrough: one of the draft’s strongest hit tools; some pop to gaps, certainly enough to keep pitchers honest; above-average runner without big speed – it plays up due to smarts and instincts on the bases; defense is biggest question, but has been steady at second in 2012 – he’s reliably sure-handed with passable range; had somebody compare him to present-day (i.e. not the amateur version) of Neil Walker, citing Walker’s rookie season (2010) as Yarbrough’s upside; 6-1, 175 pounds

72. Virginia JR SS Chris Taylor: plus arm strength; very athletic; steady defender capable of making majority of plays on balls hit at or near him while also pulling off the occasional highlight reel stop and throw; profiles best as leadoff hitter (if he has enough pop to maintain on-base skills) or seventh/eighth hitter in a better lineup; I think his speed has been exaggerated by some outlets, but it is still comfortably above-average; has some power to gaps, but likely never a double-digit HR power guy in big leagues; relatively high floor (utility guy) prospect with the enticing ceiling of everyday shortstop – I tend to err on the side of caution with respect to his upside, but still think he has such a well-rounded skill set that the odds of him reaching the highest levels of pro ball are all but assured; 6-0, 175 pounds

73. Miami JR SS Stephen Perez: plus arm strength, accuracy comes and goes; plus defensive tools, but inconsistent present ability – even his range varies from outing to outing, but the flashes are enough to make you think he can defend in the big leagues; good runner; fringe-average power upside, but currently below-average; have heard Cincinnati, the team that drafted him out of high school, is in on him again this year; 5-11, 185 pounds

74. SS AJ Simcox (Faragut HS, Tennessee): excellent range, especially to his left; strong arm; gap power; needs to add bulk and has the frame to do it; advanced hit tool; reminds me of a last year’s top prep from Tennessee Nick Delmonico a bit; average speed, maybe a tad more; he can definitely stay at shortstop, so if you buy the bat, and I do, he’s a keeper; 6-3, 170 pounds

75. SS Dansby Swanson (Marietta HS, Georgia): good athlete; plus speed; strong hit tool; good defensive tools; 6-1, 170 pounds

76. Connecticut JR 2B LJ Mazzilli: above-average speed; good athlete; chance to be really good defender, but isn’t quite there yet – still think he’s better than many of the national outlets are reporting, but I get that there’s plenty of wiggle room in player evaluation; no discernible platoon split; 6-1, 190 pounds; I’ve long championed Mazzilli as a potential big league starting second baseman, so I might as well ride it out: Really impressed by 2B LJ Mazzilli‘s swing and approach at the plate. He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).

77. 2B Chase Nyman (Pascagoula HS, Mississippi): lets ball get in very deep before swinging; very mature approach to hitting; born to hit; plus hit tool; no other tool stands out, but he can hit; room for added strength; 6-0, 185 pounds

78. C Brian De La Rosa (Olympic Heights HS, Florida): advanced defender; very accurate arm; plus arm; good athlete; mobile behind the plate; good raw power; 5-10, 190 pounds

79. 3B Jackson Campana (Providence HS, North Carolina): plus arm; huge raw power; 87-89 FB; above-average defensive tools at third; 6-6, 200 pounds

80. 3B Corey Oswalt (James Madison HS, California): power is his best tool; nice swing setup; quick bat; great athlete; plus arm; tools to be at least average defensively; 88-90 FB, 91-92 peak; good 77-80 CB; 6-4, 215 pounds; R/R

81. OF Tyrone Taylor (Torrance HS, California): great athlete; above-average speed, really quick accelerator; interesting hit tool; big defensive tools; not a ton of power upside, but has some sneaky pop; leadoff future; gap power at his best; 6-2, 180 pounds

82. OF Vincent Jackson (Luella HS, Georgia): big personal favorite as hitter; can hit velocity; average speed; strong arm; 6-4, 200 pounds

83. OF Justin Black (West HS, Montana): good defender in corner, can play CF due to great first step quickness and positioning; plus speed; slash and dash at this point, but power could come as he fills out; 6-1, 185 pounds

84. St. John’s JR OF Jeremy Baltz: above-average raw power that is already playing to all fields – willing to go where the pitch is thrown; strong hit tool; plus bat speed; slow; average at best arm; not very good in LF, so he has a ton riding on his bat; 6-3, 205 pounds

85. 3B Dylan LaVelle (Lake Stevens HS, Washington): quick bat; good power; slow; tools to play a good third base; strong hit tool; power upside; 6-2, 200 pounds

86. 3B Xavier Turner (Sandusky HS, Ohio): great base stealer; good arm; above-average speed; gap power; good defensive tools; quick bat; like him a lot; swings like a hitter, not a slugger but can still hit it out; 6-1, 205 pounds

87. 3B JT Phillips (Columbus HS, Georgia): no problems with velocity; quick bat; plus arm that would play at either third or catcher; good athlete; like him as a defender at third, good reactions; interesting power; TJ survivor; 91-93 FB, 94 peak; 73-74 CB; 6-3, 200 pounds

88. C Blake Baxendale (Rogers Heritage HS, Arkansas): improved defender with improved conditioning, always had above-average defensive tools; big present power; uses whole field as hitter; 6-3, 210 pounds

89. C Korey Dunbar (Nitro HS, West Virginia): good defensive tools; big raw power to all fields; plus arm; good athleticism; 6-1, 215 pounds

90. OF Theo Alexander (Lake Washington HS, Washington): quick bat; no problem with high velocity; strong; LF in pros; average speed; 6-2, 200 pounds

91. OF Steven Golden (St. Francis HS, California): good arm; very good speed; good instincts in OF combined with his speed give him plus range; line drive swing with very few moving parts – I like his hit tool more than most, though power upside is questionable; 6-3, 180 pounds; R/R

92. OF Giovanni Brusa (St. Mary’s HS, California): above-average arm; above-average speed; great athlete; big power upside; raw hit tool; could be league average defender in RF; 6-3, 200 pounds

93. LSU rJR OF Raph Rhymes: I think Rhymes gets downplayed as a prospect by national draft experts because they are guarding against casual fans overrating one of college baseball’s relatively well-known players; there’s really no denying that he is a wonderful natural hitter, though it is probably fair to say that his hit tool is his only above-average tool; I think he’ll be passable in left field with enough pop and plate discipline to potentially make it as a big league starter; he does run the risk of being an “all or nothing” prospect – if he can’t make it as a big league starter, then his ceiling drops down to pinch hitter only as he doesn’t fit defensively as a backup outfielder; 6-0, 180 pounds

94. Georgia Tech JR OF Brandon Thomas: above-average to plus speed; power upside largely untapped; really great athlete – if there’s one thing about his game that stands out, it is his athleticism; average hit tool with average power upside; good CF range; good enough arm, but far from special – not strong, but accurate; perfect world ceiling that a scout threw out: Andre Ethier; I think of him as a slightly lesser version of Barrett Barnes; 6-3, 205 pounds

95. UCLA JR OF Jeff Gelalich: above-average runner; good range in corner; good athlete; solid all-around defender; above-average hit tool; has added strength; average to just above-average arm; can play CF, but best in corner – likely best in LF, but good enough to cover all over; seen by many as a potentially excellent reserve outfielder, but I think he’s got a strong enough all-around game to start down the line; 6-1, 200 pounds

96. Florida State JR 1B Jayce Boyd: long believed to have plus power upside in bat, but still developing; plus to plus-plus fielder; uncanny how gifted a natural hitter he is; well-earned reputation as more of a hitter than slugger, a distinction that could scare some teams off when projecting a first base bat; similar prospect in some ways to Christian Walker, but better physical projection, defense, athleticism, and power ceiling give him edge; 6-3, 200 pounds

97. C Austin Barr (Camas HS, Washington): plus raw power; quick bat; good athlete; Stanford commit; 6-3, 215 pounds

98. C Steve Bean (Rockwall HS, Texas): best known for his plus arm and outstanding defensive tools, though he is still growing into the position defensively; good athlete; decent runner for a catcher, but not exactly fleet of foot in the grand scheme of things; interesting power upside that some scouts insist on and others don’t buy into; not just strong, but baseball strong – he’s built well, and he knows how to use it to his advantage on the diamond; prep catchers always carry risk, but Bean’s defensive upside negates some of it – I’m not as sold on the bat as others; 6-2, 190 pounds

99. 1B Ron Miller (Serra HS, California): great bat speed; above-average arm; plus raw righthanded pull-side power; pitch recognition to be watched; strong; 5-11, 215 pounds

100. 1B Khristian Brito (Quinones Medina HS, Puerto Rico): plus-plus raw power, but little else beyond that; does have a strong arm and better than you’d expect athleticism for his size; comparable to Keon Barnum, but has the edge in one key factor: age; 6-4, 230 pounds

The Baseball Draft Report

Yearly Archives: 2012

Philadelphia Phillies 2012 MLB Draft Review

Chicago White Sox 2012 MLB Draft Review

Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board – Hitters Explained

Austin Meadows vs Clint Frazier

Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board: Honorable Mentions

Way Too Early 2013 MLB Draft Big Board

Minnesota Twins 2012 MLB Draft Review

2012 MLB Trade Deadline Deals and the Draft (UPDATED)

Josh Edgin: From Round 50 to Citi Field

Colton Cain and Scott McGough

Miami/Detroit Trade: From a Draft Perspective

San Francisco Giants 2012 MLB Draft Review

2012 MLB Draft Final Big Board

Signing Day

2012 MLB Draft: Top 100 Hitters

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