The Baseball Draft Report

Draft Prep Update

Rob Ozga — Thu, 23 May 2013 00:04:41 +0000

Things are about to get crazy around here, I promise. The lists and scouting notes that will appear on these pages will be bigger and better than ever before. Well, certainly bigger…better is up for debate, but bigger is undeniably true. The completed lists (C and 1B) are currently so massive, I’m actually contemplating editing myself, something I rarely do. Here’s what I mean when I say I think my lists this year are literally too long:

College catchers (all levels, junior college included) drafted in the past five years: 76, 85, 90, 71, 75 (79.4 average)

College first basemen (all levels, junior college included) drafted in the past five years: 34, 52, 53, 57, 53 (49.8 average)

So, a good list for each position would be, say, 100 for college catchers (90 being the max over the past five years, plus a little wiggle room) and right around 50 for college first basemen. My college catcher list is currently at 149 draftable names. I have 122 draftable college first basemen. Do I cut a few of the guys off the back end for the sake of a “better” list? I say better because many of the names at the end are either a) players I’ve taken a liking to based solely on intriguing production (always a dangerous game), or b) players I’ve received a “tip” on from assorted area pals who haven’t given me much more than “I just like him and think he’s worth a late pick.” I tend to believe the more the merrier, but I don’t want to delude the list and potentially discredit the whole endeavor. Unfortunately, there are some who look at a mega-long list and think it’s just an aggregation of multiple, professionally published lists. That’s obviously not the case here, but it’s something to think about. I think ultimately I’ll keep the lists long. If I’ve got a scouting note, however brief, on some 50th round pick, then that’s a net positive for my fellow draft obsessed brothers and sisters. This was a good talk. Thanks for listening.

An out-of-town wedding figures to burn up the entirety of my Memorial Day weekend, but that’s in terms of non-work intensive days for me. Prepare yourselves for a word avalanche beginning next Tuesday. Here’s the tentative schedule going forward (dates in parentheses are my “work days” included only for my own sake, so feel free to ignore them):

May 28: Catchers (ready)

May 29: First Basemen (ready)

May 30: Second Basemen (almost ready)

May 31: Third Basemen (5/23 + 5/27)

June 1: [fighting the urge to be social and enjoy nice late spring weather]

June 2: [see above]

June 3: Shortstops (5/28 + 5/29)

June 4: Outfielders (5/30, 5/31, 6/1)

June 5: Pitchers (6/2, 6/3, 6/4)

June 6: Great Big Giant Super Duper Big Board

If you made it this far, here’s a treat. Of course, when I say treat I mean something that is almost certainly of no interest to anybody but myself, especially when shown with little context like this. But, since today is 5/22/13, here are my 5th, 22nd, and 13th top college catching prospects (note: rankings are subject to change…I need to do one last run through before next Tuesday’s publication):

5. California JR C Andrew Knapp: big upside with bat; above-average defender; above-average arm; love his approach; smart hitter, makes adjustments well; above-average power; some don’t like his defense like I do; uses whole field well; average speed; defense will come just needs experience; good athlete; FAVORITE; 2013: defense has been disappointing, but I remain a believer in him being able to stick behind plate; 6-1, 200 pounds (2011: .227/.307/.318 – 7 BB/22 K – 66 AB) (2012: .270/.354/.422 – 24 BB/33 K – 211 AB – 4/7 SB) (2013: .406/.481/.634 – 26 BB/33 K – 4/6 SB – 202 AB)

22. Air Force SR C Garrett Custons: great athlete; good speed; plus-plus arm; 5-11, 200 pounds (2011: .282/.371/.469 – 19 BB/42 K – 209 AB) (2012: .269/.359/.421 – 17 BB/34 K – 7/12 SB – 171 AB) (2013: .332/.424/.473 – 19 BB/32 K – 14/19 SB – 205 AB)

13. The Citadel JR C Joe Jackson: underrated upside with bat; competition a question, but little to dislike about production; wish he showed better on Cape; 6-1, 200 pounds (2011: .337/.403/.414 – 20 BB/19 K – 169 AB) (2012: .297/.364/.415 – 22 BB/36 K – 4/4 SB – 229 AB) (2013: .423/.517/.712 – 37 BB/27 K – 3/8 SB – 215 AB)

College Shortstops to Know

Rob Ozga — Thu, 16 May 2013 03:02:54 +0000

This, this right here, is not a particularly inspiring list. I’m hard-pressed to find a single potential regular middle infielder in this group. That leaves us with a collection of players with the chance to make it as utility infielders in the pros. That’s where things get interesting. It’s a fine line between starting shortstop/second baseman and quality utility man, I think. I’m not sure anybody outside of a few voices in the Twins organization who viewed Nick Punto as anything more than a potential above-average backup infielder. Guys like Pat Blair and Adam Frazier may not be quite good enough to warrant 500+ PA in any given big league year, but if they take to pro coaching and land in the right organization and hang around long enough to maybe see an injury or two ahead of them on the depth chart…well, you just never know.

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: The list only includes players from the conferences I’ve profiled so far. That would be the Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Ivy, Mountain West, WCC, Sun Belt, Pac 12, WAC, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, and Big 12. As referenced above, players from the rest of college ball will be added in the very near future.

Clemson JR SS Steve Wilkerson
Wake Forest SR SS Pat Blair
Mississippi State JR SS Adam Frazier
Oregon SR SS JJ Altobelli
Oregon State SR SS Tyler Smith
Florida State SR SS Justin Gonzalez
East Carolina JR SS Jack Reinheimer
Texas A&M SR SS Mikey Reynolds
Oregon State JR SS Kavin Keyes
Texas Christian SO SS Derek Odell
Vanderbilt rSO SS Joel McKeithan
UCLA JR SS Pat Valaika
Texas Christian JR SS Paul Hendrix
Tulane SR SS Garrett Cannizaro
Mississippi JR SS Austin Anderson
Auburn JR SS Dan Glevenyak
Maryland JR SS Kyle Convissar
Miami JR SS Alex Hernandez
Southern California JR SS Jimmy Roberts
California JR SS Derek Campbell
Southern Mississippi SR SS Isaac Rodriguez
Texas State SR SS Nick Smelser
Texas-Arlington JR SS Ryan Walker
Rutgers JR SS Nick Favatella
Louisville JR SS Alex Chittenden
Louisiana Tech JR SS Ryan Gebhardt
Duke JR SS Angelo LaBruna
Washington State rSO SS Trace Tam Sing
Stanford JR SS Danny Diekroeger
Oregon State JR SS Andy Peterson
Louisiana-Lafayette JR SS Ryan Leonards
San Diego JR SS Logan Davis

Myles Smith, California Catchers, and the 2005 BA Prospect Handbook

Rob Ozga — Tue, 14 May 2013 03:16:21 +0000

1. My love of Braden Shipley is pretty well established at this point (see below for the quick burst of excitement I wrote about him from February, way before he was a potential top ten pick let alone first round lock), so please allow me to champion the NAIA version of Shipley in this year’s draft class, Myles Smith from Lee University. The well-traveled Smith is a well known commodity at this point in the draft process, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve an extra shot of attention heading into June. Just about everything I wrote about Shipley below applies to Smith: easy plus velocity (90-95, 96-97 peak all spring), plus low-80s change (my favorite pitch), a much improved 78-82 slider, and, just as importantly, outstanding athleticism and a plus fielder. I don’t yet know how brave I’ll be when it comes down to final rankings, but I do know this: if my favorite team decides to shock the world and take Smith with the 16th overall pick, I won’t complain one bit. That’s bold, right?

Braden Shipley is going to rank very, very high up on my overall ranking of college pitchers (coming soon!). If I was better at searching this site, I’d look up every pitcher that I’ve described as my “ideal” pitching prospect or a pitcher “invented in a lab” to suit my needs or whatever other dumb phrase I’ve used to describe my idea of a “perfect” pitching prospect. Shipley rings every bell: easy velocity (92-95 as starter, has hit upwards of 97 in short bursts), low-80s change with above-average upside, solid upper-70s curve, good athleticism, improved command, good glove, effective pickoff move, sturdy frame with room to build on (6-3, 180 pounds), and experience as a hitter (.265/.351/.346 in 136 AB in 2011). I think he’s likely one of those guys I like a lot more than professional talent evaluators, but that’s alright: he may not be a first round, household name come June, but I still think he’s a future big leaguer.

2. I’m honing in on and finalizing high school positional lists now. I like doing the prep prospects first because it gives me a chance to wait until the end of the college regular season before evaluating those guys. I’ll probably be popping in and out over the next few days with seemingly random observations about this year’s high school class. One such example: damn, California is loaded with high school catching this year. Everybody knows about the quality and depth of prep catching across the country this year, but California alone has enough prospects of interest behind the plate to make it a good year for young catching almost by itself. It is looking highly unlikely I’ll have a California catcher in my top five (leaning WA, OK, SC, FL, and BC as of now), but there could be 5 in the top 11, 7 in the top 16, and 11 in the top 28. Sorting them out is a whole other issue, of course. You’ve got the strong, athletic, powerful yet raw defender in Jacob Nottingham. Francis Christy is similar, though arguably a little less powerful and a little more agile. Jake Sweaney is in a similar situation. There’s yet another raw defender in Tyler Alamo, but he’s a favorite thanks to one of the most mature approaches at the plate of any high schooler this year. And this all says nothing of a pair of rock solid, realistic big league floor guys (obvious caveat: the floor for any prospect is flaming out in A-ball, so we use a “realistic” floor to represent a best-case worst-case scenario, if that makes sense) in the dissected to death but still a damn good ballplayer Jeremy Martinez and Arden Pabst.

3. This likely qualifies as “too much information,” but my go-to bathroom reading over the past year or two has been my copy of the 2005 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Many of my best (and worst!) comps have come from the pages of that particular book. My most recent comparison is a bit of a stretch, but not crazy if you keep an open mind. Here we go…

6-2, 225 pounds (when drafted)
R/R
14th overall draft pick (underslot predraft deal)
“patient approach and line-drive mentality”
“quick hands and excellent hand-eye coordination”
“uses the whole field and generates natural loft”
“must improve flexibility to enhance his range at third base”
“eventually may have to move to first base”
“below-average runner but not a base-clogger”

The 2013 prospect in question fits much, if not all, of these statements. Plus, he’s listed 6-1, 205 pounds, he’s R/R, and he could go off the board around the 14th pick (probably lower, which would fit the underslot thing). Slow start to the 2013 season aside, Billy Butler, the player described in the bullets above, has turned himself into an excellent big league hitter. If you’re taking DJ Peterson in a similar range in 2013, then you’re doing so with the hope that he hits as a pro like Butler has to this point. The one major difference between the two players is their respective paths to the pro game: Butler signed out of high school while Peterson obviously went the college route. That’s pretty important here, especially when you consider Butler was a big league regular at the same point in Peterson’s current development. So, don’t the comp too seriously. Just a ceiling thing, and a potential rationale for a team selecting Peterson higher than you or I might currently expect.

2013 MLB Draft Top 20

Rob Ozga — Mon, 13 May 2013 04:44:16 +0000

Draft is close enough that I think it is high time to revisit some first round prospects to keep in mind. It’s not a real big board, but it might as well be. It’s a work in progress.

1. San Diego OF Kris Bryant
2. Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray
3. Stanford RHP Mark Appel

After that, I’m still very much undecided. Heck, even that third spot is still a bit of a mystery to me. The temptation to move up one of the prep guys — the guy in fourth below, most notably — is one I may just give in to between now and draft day. Turns out that current indecision leads to me getting all excited about upside, so let’s go with the top three high school prospects next…

4. St. Pius X HS (TX) RHP Kohl Stewart
5. Grayson HS (GA) OF Austin Meadows
6. Loganville HS (GA) OF Clint Frazier

I feel pretty good about the top six, but that’s about as far as I can go without getting the shakes when thinking about putting this thing together. Long-term readers of the site know I’m much, much more comfortable going 50 deep on a college catching prospect list than ranking the top ten overall prospects in the draft.

7. Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea
8. Nevada RHP Braden Shipley
9. Arkansas RHP Ryne Stanek

I’m still of the belief that Manaea’s recent hiccup in stuff is a temporary concern and not a long-term worry. I admittedly don’t have a whole lot of evidence to currently back up my claim, but I may have some more to share on that in the coming days. Call it a semi-educated hunch for now.

10. North Carolina 3B Colin Moran
11. Serra HS (CA) 1B Dominic Smith

You know, I get why people are down on this year’s class, but, damn, I think the quartet of Bryant, Frazier, Moran, and Smith stacks up quite nicely with any four bats at the top of any draft in recent memory. I’m cheating by swapping out Meadows for Smith, but I’m using my own specific rule of “best bat” as a guideline. Meadows is an exciting prospect, no doubt, but Smith’s bat is easily 1 or 1A (to Frazier’s 1B) in this year’s high school class. So if that’s our top four, let’s see if there is any legitimacy to the aforementioned historical claim:

2012 (mine): Correa/Buxton/Zunino/Almora
2012 (draft): Correa/Buxton/Zunino/Almora

Very comparable group, I think. Bryant is a better prospect than Zunino, and the high school hitters all are closely bunched. Buxton, of course, appears to have separated himself quite a bit from the pack, but that’s a development that can’t really be taken into account when talking draft stock. After pondering it a bit more, I think the 2012 group is better, though I’m not sure if I can explain why. I guess Correa + Buxton > Frazier + Smith explains it some.

2011 (mine): Rendon/Starling/Swihart/Lindor
2011 (draft): Starling/Rendon/Lindor/Baez

Rendon vs Moran is an interesting draft case study, but I think I’d call it for Rendon. The remaining 2011 group has the edge in positional value, but if we’re talking bat only, I like the 2013′s.

2010 (mine): Harper/Wilson/Castellanos/O’Conner
2010 (draft): Harper/Machado/Choice/Sale

Harper alone makes me want to go 2010, so that’s what I’ll do. A better question would be which of the 2010 groups is better: Machado is a huge win for the real draft order, but Wilson and Castellanos give my list a little bit of intriguing depth. Then again, Choice has done almost exactly what was expected of him and Sale did have a better than you’d believe 2012 season, ugly 2013 suspension notwithstanding.

2009 (mine): Ackley/Borchering/Green/Tate
2009 (draft): Ackley/Tate/Sanchez/Green

This is a no contest win for 2013, right? Right. Moving on…

12. Mississippi State OF Hunter Renfroe
13. Lakewood HS (CA) SS JP Crawford
14. Kentwood HS (WA) C Reese McGuire
15. New Castle HS (IN) LHP Trey Ball
16. Stanford OF Austin Wilson
17. Fresno State OF Aaron Judge
18. Yukon HS (OK) C Jonathan Denney

Sorting out the three big bat college right field prospects is a fun chore. A breakdown of the three of them may be a good post for the future. I really, really, really like Reese McGuire (I’m stunned the comp hasn’t been made yet as far as I can see, but he reminds me so much of the good version of Jason Kendall), but prep catchers are the one position group where I buy into conventional draft wisdom. I’d stay away from them if at all possible, though I think McGuire, Denney, and Nick Ciuffo are all talented enough all-around ballplayers to take the gamble at the right spot in the round.

19. St. Joseph Regional HS (NJ) LHP Rob Kaminsky
20. Bandys HS (NC) RHP Hunter Harvey

I reserve the right to move some prep arms up after more study, but I will say for now that I think this class has a really intriguing collection of depth in this area. Again, that’s something that is probably true of all draft classes — it really is incredible to think about many teenage human beings keep popping up throwing at least 88-92 every single year — but it feels like a relative strength in this year’s draft. Maybe it is because there isn’t a ton of separation between the top tier guys and the pitchers who may still be around past round five or so.

College Second Basemen to Know

Rob Ozga — Wed, 08 May 2013 03:32:48 +0000

Using older scouting reports and numbers that don’t include 2013 performances isn’t exactly a recipe for great prospect lists. However, with a few notable exceptions (Elvin Soto!), the lists have held up pretty well so far, something that should come as no surprise to anybody who buys my “once you show a tool, you own it” philosophy of prospect evaluation.

After the catcher and first base lists, I was feeling pretty good. Then…second base happened. I don’t move guys around too much for this exercise — big shifts are coming soon, what with the draft in less than a month — but this second base group was so hard to look at, I had to make some little tweaks. The top name on my pre-season list is/was…Lonnie Kauppila. I still like Kauppila just fine — he’s such a good glove that he may wind up with the shortstop group after more thought — but, man, he hasn’t hit a lick this year. Same goes for original number two (Riddle) and five (Williams). For the sake of both time and my sanity, I bumped up a few names and kept the struggling guys in the same order but down a few pegs from their preseason perches. It’s not exactly rocket science, but it’ll have to do for now.

Connecticut SR 2B LJ Mazzilli
Clemson JR 2B Shane Kennedy
Kansas State JR 2B Ross Kivett
Houston JR 2B Frankie Ratcliff
Virginia SR 2B Reed Gragnani
Princeton JR 2B Alec Keller
Louisville JR 2B Ty Young
Stanford JR 2B/SS Lonnie Kauppila
Kentucky JR 2B JT Riddle
UCLA JR 2B Kevin Williams
Wichita State JR 2B Dayne Parker
Rice SR 2B Christian Stringer
Tulane SR 2B Brennan Middleton
Georgia Tech SR 2B Sam Dove
Georgia SR 2B Kyle Farmer
Georgia Tech JR 2B Mott Hyde
Arizona State JR 2B Mike Benjamin
Texas Christian SR 2B Josh Gonzales
Baylor rJR 2B Lawton Langford
Stanford JR 2B Brett Michael Doran
Indiana State rSR 2B Koby Kraemer
New Mexico State SR 2B Parker Hipp
Oregon JR 2B Aaron Payne
Sacramento State SR 2B Andrew Ayers
Southern California SR 2B Adam Landecker
Gonzaga SR 2B Clayton Eslick
Loyola Marymount SR 2B Cullen Mahoney
Miami SR 2B Michael Broad
North Carolina State SR 2B Matt Bergquist
Middle Tennessee State SR 2B Johnny Thomas
Kentucky JR 2B Paul McConkey
San Diego State JR 2B Tim Zier
Louisville SR 2B Nick Ratajczak
Cornell SR 2B Brenton Peters
Wake Forest SR 2B Mark Rhine
South Alabama rSO 2B Logan Kirkland
Texas A&M JR 2B Charlie Curl

Phillip Ervin

Rob Ozga — Wed, 01 May 2013 19:52:25 +0000

I’m good at compiling notes and making lists and churning out content in the days immediately preceding the draft. I think I can retrieve and process information from a variety of sources with the best of them. When it comes time to actually sitting down to write, I can string together a few sentences (occasionally typo-free!). I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me. Or at least these are the things that I tell myself in the mirror each day to affirm my value to the world as a draft site writer guy. There are days when the responsibilities of real life back me into a corner where I desperately need a reason to keep doing what I do here, and those reasons typically suffice.

One thing I’m terrible with, as if you haven’t yet noticed, is the inspiration/creativity/good writer-ing (definitely a real word, look it up) part. I have lots of fun information (109,000+ words on college prospects, 11,000+ on prep players) that I want to share with fellow draft obsessives, but rarely can I think of a clever way of presenting said info. I like lists and team profiles and conference profiles and all that good stuff, but the site would get boring if that’s all I ever did. Or at least that’s how I think people reading would feel. Long story short, on those rare and beautiful occasions that inspiration strikes, I’m really going to make and effort to just turn off the doubting part of my brain and just go with it. I woke up this morning thinking a little bit about Phillip Ervin — is that normal? — so, doggone it, that’s who I’m going to write about today.

I like Phillip Ervin a lot. Is it crazy to suggest that he’s a little teeny tiny bit like the college version of everybody’s favorite high school hitter, Clint Frazier? Both are praised for, in order, their 1) electric bat speed, 2) well-rounded overall skill sets, 3) above-average arm strength (pre-injury for Frazier), 4) picture perfect pro-ready swings, 5) above-average speed on the base paths, and 6) advanced pitch recognition skills. The main concern for both is that they are maxed-out physically. Additionally, both can hack it in center (Ervin more than Frazier), but profile best defensively in right field (again, assuming Frazier’s bum arm bounces back in time). This is all far too simplistic a comparison and I’m clearly not taking into account the crucially important differences in their hair, but you can kind of see how the two share some things if you keep an open mind, right?

More reputable organizations have come up with very interesting comps in their own right. Baseball America quoted a scout who relayed a Ron Gant comp for Ervin. Interesting. Perfect Game’s Frankie Piliere (always a favorite of the site, but he’s been better than ever this year) went with a pretty and thought-provoking Ian Kinsler comp. Interesting x2. I like both comps for a variety of reasons (swing/body/athleticism), but my own close viewing of Ervin (keep in mind, I’m not a scout) brought to mind a former favorite of mine, Reggie Sanders. A friend who has seen Ervin more than me — and a guy who, unlike me and my reliance on a shaky images from when I was a kid (not all my fault: I was 5 when Sanders debuted in the bigs), has clear memories these players from watching them up close and in person — offered up his own righthanded Mark Kotsay comp. Let’s go to the career numbers (using B-R 162 game average) for some context:

Gant: .256/.336/.468 with 28 HR and 21 SB
Kinsler: .273/.351/.462 with 25 HR and 27 SB
Sanders: .267/.343/.487 with 28 HR and 28 SB
Kotsay: .278/.334/.409 with 11 HR and 9 SB

A few thoughts…

1) The Kotsay comp jumps out as being particularly light in terms of both power and speed projections. This jibed with what my guy said about Ervin, a player he believes is a great college hitter but likely an average at best big league bat. He did concede that totals more like Kotsay’s best year (17 HR and 11 SB) were more in line with the kind of upside Ervin possesses. Worth noting that our conversation discounted Kotsay’s strong on-base skills and defense: we were strictly talking power, speed, and overall batting lines during our talk. Also worth noting that average at best big league bat is nothing to get down about, especially in this year’s draft, and especially if you believe Ervin can stick in center as a pro.

2. Damn, Reggie Sanders was a good player. I normally don’t have a great feel for “underrated” or “overrated,” but his is a name you don’t hear enough these days. Then again, I guess it would be weird if people were just walking around talking about Reggie Sanders, but still. Very good player.

3. Outside of the Kotsay outlier, you can see some basic trends with these comps. We’re talking 20/20 potential (see above) with almost perfectly above-average BB% (see below).

Gant: 10.5 BB% and 19.3 K% with .212 ISO and .351 wOBA
Kinsler: 9.8 BB% and 12.1 K% with .189 ISO and .355 wOBA
Sanders: 9.6 BB% and 22.9 K% with .220 ISO and .357 wOBA

Gant and Sanders are close enough — not super close, mind you, but close enough — but Kinsler stands out as being a little more prone to contact while having less raw power. That sounds more like Ervin from a scouting standpoint, at least to me. Each player’s ultimate production matched up quite nicely, but those are interesting differences to keep in mind. Getting too deep into amateur stats is often a mistake — I feel like I do it as much as just about anybody, and I’d like to think I tow the line between stats/scouting reports carefully — so take Ervin’s 2013 walk and strikeout numbers (so far) with a grain of salt: 16.6 BB% and 12.2 K%. Far from a perfect match, but the strikeout numbers match better with Kinsler than the others. Not for nothing, but Kinsler’s draft season’s numbers (9.9 BB% and 11.6 K%) align pretty damn well with what he’s done as a big leaguer. Weird and probably meaningless and in no way predictive for Ervin’s career, but there it is.

Anyway, I like the Kinsler comp by Perfect Game so much that I did a little digging on similar players/prospect from recent history. In what was far from an exhaustive search of all comparable talents, one player’s scouting and statistical profile jumped off the page to me. This comp is pretty far out there, so don’t say I didn’t warn you when you find yourself shaking your head while reading. Before we get to that, a quick tangent…

I’m sure smart guys have already done studies on stuff like this, but the correlation between minor league stats and big league stats is fascinating to me. There are so many external factors (age, league, park factors, etc.) to take into account that it isn’t reasonable to expect any breakthrough finding (e.g. statistic X is the best indicator of success or X% remains constant throughout a player’s minor league progression), but it still amazes me when players have numbers in the minors that wind up matching up perfectly with their major league production. Long story short: Alex Ochoa hit .289/.354/.414 (.768 OPS) in the minors. In the bigs, he hit .279/.344/.422 (.766 OPS). That’s a little freaky, right? Any age, any environment, any level of competition = same rate of production.

The tangent may be over, but the Alex Ochoa talk is just beginning. That would be a great tag line for the site if I ever hit it big. I oh so subtly dropped Ochoa into that tangent only to now reveal that it is none other than former Oriole and Met top prospect Alex Ochoa who reminds me of what I think Phillip Ervin may become. First, the scouting report via a June 14, 1995 article in the Baltimore Sun written by Kent Baker. Why they used a rating scale from 1 to 5, I’ll never know. Here’s how they graded his five tools:

Hitting: 5. An excellent gap-to-gap hitter. Has a solid line-drive stroke but also can turn on inside pitches and pull them. Is strong at taking pitches away from him to right-center.

Power: 4 1/2 . Not a pure slugger but has the strength to clear the fences. Projects to 15- to 20-home run production in the majors.

Speed: 4 1/2 . Has stolen 34 and 31 bases in two of his minor-league seasons. Knows when to advance from station to station.

Defense: 5. Has worked hard in this area and even took ground balls at third base when asked. A high school shortstop, he always has been good with grounders to the outfield and has improved in retreating on balls over his head.

Arm: 5 plus. The last generation raved about the great arms of Roberto Clemente and Rocky Colavito. Ochoa is in that class. Now that he has discovered when to use it and when not to and his accuracy has become pinpoint, there are no flaws.

Excellent gap-to-gap hitter. Solid line-drive stroke. Hmm, that sounds familiar. I actually have “hitter more than slugger” in my notes on Ervin. On Ochoa, it says “not a pure slugger but has the strength to clear the fences.” Projects to 15- to 20-home run production. Plus to plus-plus right field arm. Not a natural outfielder, but has improved. My notes on Ervin: “will take some questionable routes and fight some routine fly balls, but enough speed/instincts/coachability to stick in CF. Will be good RF otherwise with plenty of arm to handle the spot.” Hmm, indeed.

Now a look at the career numbers:

Ochoa: 8.5 BB% and 12.1 K% with .143 ISO and .336 wOBA

Fewer walks than Kinsler, but in the same neighborhood overall. The power also doesn’t really compare, but that’s likely true when stacking up Ervin with Kinsler as well. If you’re buying the Kinsler comp from PG, then there ought to be some validity to the Ochoa one as well, right? More numbers:

Ochoa (162 game average): .279/.344/.422 with 9 HR and 11 SB

Off the top, it’s a little bit of a mystery to me why Ochoa didn’t get more of a chance to hang around in the bigs. I vaguely remember him getting some decent money to go to Japan, but it shouldn’t have come to that. After settling in with the Brewers in 1999 (once some of his prospect sheen had worn off, a blessing in disguise for some players), the man did nothing but produce: 2.2 WAR in 1999, 2.4 WAR in 2000, 0.6 WAR in 2001 (this was probably his big chance, as he got by far the most PA of his career), and then 1.1 WAR in 2002. WAR isn’t the be-all, end-all, but the consistent positive scores do paint a pretty good picture of an average or better big league player in Ochoa, especially when you consider the tools that made him a top prospect were still a part of his game.

More relevant to our conversation is the realization that these numbers are a lot closer to Kotsay than Kinsler, Sanders, and Gant. Consider the above line a potential “worst case scenario” for Ervin’s big league career. Note the scare quotes: Ervin, and, any amateur prospect for that matter, have a real worst case scenario much closer to AA flameout than productive big league player with 807 games played in the big leagues under his belt. I hope that the high likelihood of any prospect crashing and burning can continue to be one of those known but not often said aspects of our draft discussion. Risk (i.e. how likely a prospect is to achieve meaningful professional success) is always a consideration when discussing a young player, so know that we’re operating under the assumption that these guys will do enough to keep advancing in pro ball.

If Kinsler is Ervin’s best case scenario ceiling, then Ochoa is his most realistic big league floor. Either way, I think we’re looking at a starting caliber outfielder who will give you value in a variety (speed and arm are both above-average; hit, power, and glove all at least average depending on the day) of ways. Selfishly, I can’t help but to translate his stock into the context of what I’m hoping to see the Phillies do at pick 16. I think there will be more enticing upside plays still on the board — Austin Wilson the first name to come to mind — and with a rare early-ish pick, upside is the way to go. That said, depending on how the board falls, I wouldn’t complain one bit if Ervin was the choice at 16. Middle of the first is likely his draft ceiling, and deservedly so.

College First Basemen to Know

Rob Ozga — Wed, 01 May 2013 03:09:51 +0000

I hate having to preface posts with little updates about my life away from the site, but I ultimately prefer going this route than having to live with the guilt of not updating for multiple days on end. Last week’s excuse was a grad school paper hanging over my head; no sooner did that fifteen-page pile of words get turned in did I come down with a rare and not so beautiful case of double pink eye (love my job, but the threat of maladies like that are a clear downside). I’m not really the type to “get sick” and “stop working,” but, damn, it turns out your eyes are really important when it comes to keeping up with most day-to-day activities. Time spent working on a few projects for the site turned into time sitting around doing nothing but holding a warm compress to my face.

To make life a little simpler for me while I catch up, here’s a quick and dirty list of college first basemen that have caught my eye thus far. Same rules for the catching list last week apply: the list only includes players from the conferences I’ve profiled so far. That would be the Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Ivy, Mountain West, WCC, Sun Belt, Pac 12, WAC, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, and Big 12.

I do promise to have any recent comment or email responded to by the end of the day on Wednesday.

New Mexico JR 1B DJ Peterson
Notre Dame JR 1B Eric Jagielo
Oregon JR 1B Ryon Healy
Notre Dame JR 1B Trey Mancini
Georgia Tech JR 1B Daniel Palka
South Alabama JR 1B Jordan Patterson
Vanderbilt JR 1B Conrad Gregor
Oregon State SR 1B Danny Hayes
Louisiana-Lafayette JR 1B Chase Compton
Washington State rJR 1B Adam Nelubowich
Cincinnati JR 1B Justin Glass
Wichita State rSR 1B Johnny Coy
Portland JR 1B Turner Gill
East Carolina JR 1B Chase McDonald
Florida SR 1B Vickash Ramjit
Marshall SR 1B Nathan Gomez
Rice JR 1B Michael Aquino
Louisville SR 1B Zak Wasserman
North Carolina SR 1B Cody Stubbs
Duke rSO 1B Chris Marconcini
Wake Forest rJR 1B Matt Conway
Maryland JR 1B Tim Kiene
Virginia rSR 1B Jared King
Auburn SR 1B Garrett Cooper
Sacramento State SR 1B Clay Cederquist
Dartmouth JR 1B Dustin Selzer

Let’s Talk College Catching

Rob Ozga — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 05:05:03 +0000

1. Apologies for not being around much of late, but a handful of side projects and the seemingly constant stream of grad school research/paper writing has left me with little time to write for the site. As always, be assured that there’s been lots of updating of materials going on behind the scenes, so get excited for what I like to think is my annual strong content push in the weeks leading up to draft day.

2. Huge thank you to the two individuals who emailed me asking me, in so many words, if I was still in one piece after the recent attacks in Boston. I’ve obviously sent personal emails back — seriously, thanks again — but, egomaniacal fellow that I am, figured that if two strangers were concerned enough to ask then there might be one or two less vocal worriers out there as well. I’m good. My undergrad days in Boston are long gone and I’m a few hundred miles south now. Scary, unimaginably horrible stuff all the same, but I’m good.

3. Personal bookkeeping finally out of the way, how about a list? Here are some ground rules before this thing gets picked apart:

I’ve updated the list as much as possible based on any and all updated scouting information (note: this is still not perfect, as evidenced by the too high ranking of Matt Roberts and the too low ranking of Elvin Soto), but haven’t had a chance to run each prospect’s 2013 numbers through any kind of meaningful statistical testing. Because of this, I strongly considered scrapping the whole ranking aspects of the list and going with a generic alphabetized “follow list” like I’ve done in the past. I’m going with the tentatively ranked list for now because I do think it shows a decent snapshot of where certain players were ranked by me heading into the season.

I’m happy to answer any specific questions and provide any answers about forthcoming changes (e.g. Roberts down, Soto up) in the comments or via email. I’m also planning on slotting in players from elsewhere around college ball, including the juco ranks, in the coming days.

California JR C Andrew Knapp
Mississippi JR C Stuart Turner
LSU JR C Tyler Ross
North Carolina JR C Matt Roberts
New Mexico SR C Mitchell Garver
Texas JR C Jacob Felts
Dartmouth JR C Jeff Keller
Vanderbilt JR C Spencer Navin
Auburn JR C Blake Austin
Loyola Marymount SR C Colton Plaia
North Carolina JR C Brian Holberton
Air Force SR C Garrett Custons
Oregon State JR C Jake Rodriguez
Washington State JR C Collin Slaybaugh
San Diego SR C Dillon Haupt
Arizona State SR C Max Rossiter
Southern California JR C Jake Hernandez
Louisville JR C Kyle Gibson
Pittsburgh SO C Elvin Soto
Fresno State SR C Austin Wynns
Virginia Tech rJR C Chad Morgan
Cal State Bakersfield JR C Cael Brockmeyer
Duke SR C Jeff Kremer
Rutgers SR C Jeff Melillo
Fresno State rSR C Trent Garrison
Missouri State SR C Luke Voit
Missouri JR C Dylan Kelly
Illinois State JR C Mike Hollenbeck
Bradley JR C Austin Jarvis
Georgia SR C Brett DeLoach
Mississippi State SR C Mitch Slauter
Arkansas JR C Jake Wise
Mississippi JR C Will Allen
Alabama JR C Wade Wass
Wake Forest SR C Brett Armour
St. John’s JR C Frank Schwindel
Florida Atlantic SR C Mike Spano
Central Florida SR C Ryan Breen
Texas State rJR C Tyler Pearson
Louisiana Tech rJR C Kyle Arnsberg
Texas State SR C Andrew Stumph
Dallas Baptist SR C Duncan McAlpine
Baylor SR C Nathan Orf
Kansas JR C Kai’ana Eldredge
South Carolina SR C Dante Rosenberg

If you’ve made it this far, thanks. Here’s a quick idea of what the immediate future holds. First, I’ve got a paper that needs to be written between now and Thursday. Once that’s out of the way, things will pick up for a bit. In the meantime, I’m hoping to a) continue updating the college catcher rankings and perhaps move on to other positions, b) finish my thoughts on the SEC, and c) do a little MLB Draft/NFL Draft mock draft remix before Thursday’s first round.

Potpourri

Rob Ozga — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 17:04:05 +0000

1. I think the ongoing Austin Meadows vs Clint Frazier debate remains too close to call. I wish I had a stronger opinion on the matter than that weak take, but it’s the truth – I won’t pretend that one has the clear cut advantage at this point because they really are as close as it gets. I do think the two guys have gotten engulfed in a little bit of easy narrative typecasting — not that there’s anything wrong with that as it is a narrative (Meadows is tools/upside/flash, Frazier is advanced/hitter-ish/red-haired) that I have used to describe the two to the bored people in real life who can’t run away in time — but the differences between Meadows and Frazier are really what makes the comparison so damn compelling. It’s worth noting that the the one obvious edge often given to Meadows — the combination of speed/athleticism/instincts that presently allows him to effectively roam center field — isn’t as much of a sure thing going forward as the narrative may have you believe. If you can guarantee Meadows will play an above-average center through at least his late-20s, then I think he’s the pick. If both are right fielders professionally, then the door is very clearly open for fans of Frazier to proclaim him the best high school hitter in all the land.

Also, very important hair comp that came to me at the ballpark watching Phils/Mets on Wednesday: Frazier is Justin Turner 2.0. This realization helped me relate the draft, a topic I rarely broach in real life despite what I may have written earlier, to my old man. “There’s a high school guy from Georgia in this year’s draft who should go in the first few picks with hair that looks a lot like that (points to Phan-A-Vision when Turner was announced as a pinch-hitter).” The last time I brought up the draft to my dad was when talking about Nick Noonan’s Utley-like swing many years ago. Pretty sure my Frazier/Turner comp will stand the test of time a little better.

2. One thing that I don’t think has been discussed enough (by me, mostly) with respect to this specific draft class is the depth of quality prep arms likely to be available outside of the first round. I know, I know…with so many available arms and so many different team scouting perspectives on pitching, there’s never a bad year for prep pitching. We’re talking guys like Kaminsky, Clarkin, Krook, Brentz, Gonsalves, Wesely, Williams, Puk, Kohler, Alexander, Keys, McKinney, Taylor, Green, Burnett, Allen, Kilichowski, Moss, Bowden, Flores, Brady, Farmer, Jackson, Rogers, Wright, Gilson, Nicely…and those are just a fraction of the lefthanders with top ten round draftable stuff. Typing out the names of the righties would take all weekend. I’m guilty of not writing enough about high school guys, especially the non-first round prospects, so I’ll do what I can to shift the focus on some of the mid- to late-round potential steal types over the coming weeks.

3. I really, really wanted to do a mock this year. It’s been a few years since my last one and I’ve grown antsy. I started to write one on New Year’s Day, but scrapped it in favor of a few other more pressing projects. Long-time readers of the site know my stance on mocks by now: outside of Jim Callis’, mocks as predictive tools are pointless. That doesn’t mean I don’t love them, of course. Mocks are a lot of fun, and, when treated right, can be a great way to learn about the draft’s top players. Mocks can also serve as an exercise in recalibrating one’s self with the pro game. You can’t discuss Houston’s pick without going into their most recent draft classes, their current big league setup, and, most importantly, the emerging talent biding time down in the farm. Well, I guess you can just write “Houston – Mark Appel” and call it a day, but what’s the fun in that? Long story short, I may yet do a mock, but I already feel we’re too late in the process to make it worth the while. Since my mocks aren’t based on real sources — Jim Callis, I ain’t — they read best before teams begin to make their real deal short lists for each pick. For fun, here were some of the high notes from that 1/1/13 mock…again, this is NOT a current mock (note the dated draft order in places) and shouldn’t be treated as such.

1. Houston Astros | Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea

2. Chicago Cubs | Arkansas JR RHP Ryne Stanek

3. Colorado Rockies | Grayson HS (GA) OF Austin Meadows

4. Minnesota Twins | Loganville HS (GA) OF Clint Frazier

5. Cleveland Indians | Stanford SR RHP Mark Appel

6. Miami Marlins | Lakewood HS (CA) SS JP Crawford

7. Boston Red Sox | Florida JR RHP Karsten Whitson

8. Kansas City Royals | Florida JR RHP Jonathan Crawford

9. Pittsburgh Pirates | Stanford JR OF Austin Wilson

10. Toronto Blue Jays | San Diego JR OF/3B Kris Bryant

11. New York Mets | Red Wing HS (MN) OF Ryan Boldt

12. Seattle Mariners | Kentwood HS (WA) C Reese McGuire

13. San Diego Padres | St. Pius HS (TX) RHP Kohl Stewart

14. Pittsburgh Pirates | New Castle HS (IN) OF Trey Ball

15. Arizona Diamondbacks | Gaither HS (FL) SS Oscar Mercado

16. Philadelphia Phillies | St. Joseph Regional HS (NJ) LHP Robert Kaminsky

17. Milwaukee Brewers | Mississippi JR RHP Bobby Wahl

18. Chicago White Sox | Terrebonne HS (LA) OF Justin Williams

19. Los Angeles Dodgers | Woodford County HS (KY) RHP Clinton Hollon

20. St. Louis Cardinals | Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) LHP Stephen Gonsalves

21. Detroit Tigers | North Carolina 3B Colin Moran

22. Tampa Rays | Junipero Serra HS (CA) 1B Dominic Smith

23. Baltimore Orioles | Fresno State OF Aaron Judge

24. Texas Rangers | Riverwood HS (GA) OF Terry McClure

25. Oakland Athletics | James Madison HS (VA) SS/3B Andy McGuire

26. San Francisco Giants | Washington HS (IA) LHP AJ Puk

27. New York Yankees | St. Thomas HS (TX) 3B Cavan Biggio

28. Cincinnati Reds | Gonzaga LHP Marco Gonzales

29. Washington Nationals | Riverdale Baptist HS (MD) OF Matthew McPhearson

Supplemental First Round

30. St. Louis Cardinals | LSU SS/OF JaCoby Jones

31. Tampa Rays | Wenatchee HS (WA) RHP Dustin Driver

32. Texas Rangers | Yukon HS (OK) C Jon Denney

33. Atlanta Braves | Parkview HS (GA) OF Josh Hart

34. New York Yankees | LSU JR RHP Ryan Eades

35. New York Yankees | Venice HS (FL) 1B Nick Longhi

36. Washington Nationals | Elk Grove HS (CA) 1B Rowdy Tellez

Competitive Balance Lottery Round A

37. Kansas City Royals | Vanderbilt JR LHP Kevin Ziomek

38. Miami Marlins | Virginia Tech JR 3B Chad Pinder

39. Arizona Diamondbacks | Samford OF Phillip Ervin

40. Baltimore Orioles | James Madison HS (CA) LHP Ian Clarkin

41. Cincinnati Reds | King HS (FL) RHP Brett Morales

42. Detroit Tigers | Arlington County Day HS (FL) C Brian Navaretto

For good measure, here’s what I wrote up about the Houston pick…

1. Houston Astros | Indiana State LHP Sean Manaea

Houston has done an admirable job of restocking the organization’s hitting depth, but remains short on starting pitchers worth getting excited about. Lance McCullers, Mike Foltynewicz, and Nick Tropeano are a good foundation to build on, but that one starting pitching prospect who blends big league readiness with front of the rotation stuff remains elusive. I get that this could be said about 29 other farm systems — hey, did you know ace starting pitching prospects are rare? — but the lover of team building in me appreciates a projected rotation so much more when pitchers are slotted in where they “should” be. Sean Manaea as the future staff ace knocks all those other arms down a peg, and that’s something my brain appreciates. I know I shouldn’t get that caught up in Number 1 Starter, Number 2 Starter, Number 3 Starter, Number 4 Starter, Number 5 Starter designations, but it is something that helps increase my fandom rather than decrease my ability to discuss prospects. Anyway, if the Astros decide to hone in on pitching then it will almost certainly restrict their search to college arms, specifically the big three of Manaea, Ryne Stanek, and Mark Appel. I’ve gone back and forth on all three guys since last June, but am now pretty confident that Manaea is the pick to click. No pitcher in this class — or any others for the foreseeable future, despite what I’ve read a few fellow indy draft writers write about Carlos Rodon — compares to Stephen Strasburg, the ultimate in amateur pitching prospects in every possible way. However, if pressed to choose one name that even gave some kind of outside resemblance to the Nationals ace, I’d go Manaea. Part of the reason for such a silly comparison is based on each guy’s respective transition from soft bodied high school afterthought to top of the prospect class after just two years of collegiate life. Just another example of how often we, myself included, tend to overrate prospect accumulation while underrating player development.

Back to that hitting depth for a minute: potential above-average regulars Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, and Delino Deshields should join Jose Altuve in Houston within the next year or so. Last year’s draft prizes, Carlos Correa and Rio Ruiz, offer legit star upside. Lottery ticket Domingo Santana remains intriguing, as does the cadre of steady yet unspectacular future contributors like Tyler Heineman, Preston Tucker, Matt Dominguez, Nolan Fontana, Jonathan Villar, and Robbie Grossman. Adding a young outfielder like Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier would further strengthen the Astros collection of up the middle talent: you’d have MIFs Correa, Deshields, Altuve, Fontana, and Villar, as well as CFs Springer and Meadows/Frazier. That would be fun.

As I’ve said before, I have heard that certain high-ranking decision makers within the Astros front office like JP Crawford a ton. If I had to name one “sleeper” to go first overall — we’ll define sleeper as not being one of the big three college arms (Manaea, Stanek, Appel) nor one of the two hugely hyped prep outfielders (Meadows, Frazier) — then Crawford would be the easy pick. Choosing Correa and Crawford back-to-back with number one overall selections would be some kind of ballsy.

2013 MLB Draft March Madness Prospect Tournament

Rob Ozga — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:45:15 +0000

Next year I’m going to give this idea the proper amount of effort it deserves. Until then, behold the half-baked 2013 MLB Draft March Madness Prospect Tournament unveiled just in time for March Madness to wrap up with tonight’s championship game. Seeds were determined by combing the lists compiled by the four current leaders in the industry: Baseball America, Perfect Game, ESPN (Keith Law), and Scout (Kiley McDaniel). The lists are obviously quite dated by now — Perfect Game is the oldest, and I started this before Baseball America’s most recent update — but what’s done is done. Besides (positive spin alert!), using older lists helped create some fun matchups, as well as demonstrate how much some prospects have risen or fallen in the past few months. Here we go…

West (Stanford) Region

1 Mark Appel
16 Karsten Whitson

8 Jordan Sheffield
9 Kevin Ziomek

5 Ryan Boldt
12 Billy McKinney

4 Oscar Mercado
13 Hunter Harvey

6 Phillip Ervin
11 Stephen Gonsalves

3 Colin Moran
14 Travis Demeritte

7 Chris Anderson
10 JaCoby Jones

2 Austin Wilson
15 Matt McPhearson

How interesting is that very first matchup? Prior to his injury, Whitson could have given Appel a run for his money. Well, I guess we could change that to “prior to his injury AND Mark Appel consistently showing off top of the rotation big league stuff every Friday all spring long,” but that would be a little wordy. Sheffield (future Vandy ace?) and Ziomek (current Vandy ace) give us a 8/9 “upset” made easy by Sheffield’s questionable health status. Boldt vs McKinney is a fascinating contrast of loud athletic tools (Boldt) and a bat-first prep corner outfield prospect (have heard “poor man’s Frazier” mentioned his way, though I’m not saying I endorse such talk). Mercado and Harvey give us what seems like a yearly tradition in the real deal NCAA tournament: a 4/13 upset. Talk about two players with respective arrows going the opposite directions there. I like Ervin over Gonsalvez, Moran over Demeritte (fun plus bat over plus glove battle there), Anderson over Jones, and Wilson, injured or not, over the stupid fast McPhearson.

***

South (SEC) Region

1 Ryne Stanek
16 Rowdy Tellez

8 Andrew Mitchell
9 Justin Williams

5 Bobby Wahl
12 Garret Williams

4 Reese McGuire
13 Aaron Blair

6 Ryan Eades
11 Matt Krook

3 Jonathon Crawford
14 AJ Puk

7 Eric Jagielo
10 Dustin Driver

2 Austin Meadows
15 Carlos Salazar

I swear I didn’t stack the deck to get so many big time SEC arms into one regional. Can’t say I’m too bummed out things worked out this way, though. Life is good for the SEC when it comes to most of these first round draws: Stanek whoops Tellez, Wahl topples Williams (lots of inconsistent stuff featured in that matchup), and Crawford (current Florida star) edges the underrated Puk (future Florida star?). The one matchup that gives me major pause is Eades vs Krook. A pairing that close calls for a breakdown:

Fastball: Crawford (90-94, 98) ties Krook (87-93, 95) with the latter evening things up thanks to his lefthandedness
Breaking Stuff: nasty mid-80s sliders for both, call it another tie
Changeup: big win for Crawford, who has an underrated mid-80s offering that takes care of Krook’s underdeveloped (i.e. I’ve got nothing on it) change
Size/Physical Projection/Future Role: Krook (6-4, 200) by virtue over Crawford (6-2, 200) getting dinged in the past for perhaps not having the body, arm action, and command to start in pro ball (not saying I agree)

I could keep going with categories, but it’s late so let’s call it for Krook by the skin of his teeth. Beyond the SEC, we’ll go with Mitchell over Williams (very, very close), McGuire over Blair (I just like McGuire too much, so don’t take this as a reflection on not liking Blair, who has been truly great this year), Driver over Jagielo (upside play), and Meadows over Salazar.

Midwest (Manaea) Region

1 Sean Manaea
16 Chris Okey

8 Andrew Thurman
9 Dillon Overton

5 Aaron Judge
12 Connor Jones

4 Kohl Stewart
13 Hunter Renfroe

6 Jonathan Gray
11 Andy McGuire

3 Dominic Smith
14 Chris Kohler

7 Ian Clarkin
10 Jason Hursh

2 JP Crawford
15 Conrad Gregor

This region should be proof enough that I didn’t game the results of the rankings to create interesting matchups. We’re going chalk all the way. I could maybe see arguments in favor of Jones over Judge (this goes against everything I’ll say in the next parenthetical distraction, but Jones may actually be a “safer” pick than Judge at this point) or Renfroe over Stewart (only if you a) are scared off by Stewart’s medicals/signability, or b) really don’t like risking high picks on risky high school pitchers). One nice thing about all the favorites moving on is that you get better quality matchups (in theory) in ensuing rounds. I, for one, love that Gray is lurking as a sixth seed…

***

East (because the last region gets stuck with an illogical geographical title) Region

1 Clint Frazier
16 Cavan Biggio

8 Rob Kaminsky
9 Michael Lorenzen

5 Marco Gonzales
12 Tom Windle

4 Trey Ball
13 AJ Vanegas

6 DJ Peterson
11 Colby Suggs

3 Jonathan Denney
14 Tucker Neuhaus

7 Trevor Williams
10 Braden Shipley

2 Kris Bryant
15 Hunter Green

Rob Kaminsky plays in the east, right? So the name isn’t that bad. I like the Jersey lefty over the endlessly frustrating Lorenzen. It probably doesn’t much matter as either is like a lamb to slaughter with Frazier looming large in round two. A part of me was hoping Vanegas would be a 16 seed, so we could pair him up against teammate Appel. As a 13 he’s plenty dangerous, but Ball is a touch too talented to make gambling on Vanegas a smart play. Peterson takes care of Suggs (wildly overrated, but that could just be my anti-reliever bias showing), Denney smacks down helium guy Neuhaus, and Bryant makes quick work of the interesting Green.

Speaking of Green, I would imagine anybody reading over 1,000 words on a weird draft related piece like this knows all of the names featured above. The one exception may be the little hyped prep lefty from Kentucky. Green already can hit the low-90s with his fastball and just oozes projection (gross, sorry) in his 6-4, 170 pound frame. He’s also one of the smarter young pitching minds in this class. I don’t remember which list liked him enough to get him into the tournament, but I think it was Law. Good name to know going forward.

The two unsettled matchups are our 5/12 and 7/10 contests. Shipley is on an entirely different level than Williams for me, but it stinks that an “upset” like that doesn’t carry any weight now that Shipley has emerged as a legitimate top ten threat. Gonzales vs Windle is worth a breakdown, right? Let’s close out the first round by stacking these two quality college lefthanders against one another in a blind test:

87-92 FB (94), above-average 78-84 SL (plus upside), average 80-85 CU (above-average upside), good athlete, 6-4, 210 pounds

2011: 7.62 K/9 | 41.1 IP
2012: 8.27 K/9 | 3.70 BB/9 | 4.20 FIP | 41.1 IP
2013: 8.10 K/9 | 1.62 BB/9 | 3.47 FIP | 50 IP

87-91 FB (92), average 75-81 CB, plus 77-82 circle CU, plus athlete, 6-1, 185 pounds

2011: 7.80 K/9 | 105 IP
2012: 9.13 K/9 | 2.14 BB/9 | 3.34 FIP | 92.2 IP
2013: 8.12 K/9 | 1.76 BB/9 | 3.26 FIP | 51 IP

Wow, that’s close. I need to sleep on that one…