• Virginia JR RHP Ryan Briggs
• North Carolina SO OF Jeff Bouton
• North Carolina FR SS Zac LaNeve
• North Carolina State JR RHP Dane Williams – [heard injuries forced him to give up the game, but haven't been able to confirm]
• North Carolina State rJR OF Cameron Conner
• Miami FR OF Jake Lane
• Maryland SO RHP Austin Kilbourne (thanks to an intrepid commenter, we know Kilbourne has transferred to Shelton State CC in Alabama)
• Maryland FR LHP Shane Campbell

I hate going through my notes and seeing useful information about legitimate prospects, and then checking and not seeing their names on the roster they used to be on. Drives me bananas. It would be great if I could just delete them and forget they ever existed, but, as mentioned, I’m a crazy person who can’t do that.

ACC Draft Preview should be up early Wednesday morning. I have no idea what the preview will actually consist of, but it’ll be good. Maybe an All-ACC 2012 Draft Team, complete list of potentially draftable players, ’13 and ’14 Futures List, and then a straight top 10 or 20 or 30 or 50 top 2012 Draft prospects list. Does that work? If you’ve got an idea/request/complaint, let me know in the comments/via email…

I think Texas RHP Taylor Jungmann unfairly got lost amongst the collection of so many talented 2011 college arms. I think his fastball command is so good that he’ll have early enough pro success to buy him some time to sharpen up his inconsistent offspeed stuff. I think the Jared Weaver comp – made by Baseball America, if memory serves – is a good approximation for his ceiling. So concludes three things I think I think about Taylor Jungmann.

Texas JR RHP Taylor Jungmann: has touched 96-99, but regularly sits low-90s (91-93); new reports have him 92-95; can still reach back and crank upper-90s (like on opening day 2011), but sits most comfortably 92-93, occasionally dipping to 89-91; plus FB command; good sink on FB; plus 75-78 CB; plus CB command; good 85-87 CU; good SL; love the Jered Weaver comp

The parallel careers of Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley and new Seattle Mariner LHP Danny Hultzen will be fascinating to watch. Bradley can do many of the same things that caused so many to fall in love with Hultzen this past spring. Hultzen dominated the college game in a way Bradley didn’t, but, from a stuff perspective, the two lefties are much closer than you might think. Bradley’s fastball might even be a tick better than Hultzen’s, though his secondary offerings are nowhere near as consistent. There are days, however, that his change and slider look just as good as Hultzen’s top two offspeed pitches.

Georgia Tech JR LHP Jed Bradley: 88-92 FB with plus life and good sink, pretty steady peak up at 94-96; loves to cut the FB; has sat 91-93 at times; holds velocity late; good sink on FB; average 80-84 SL that flashes plus when velocity gets up to 86-87; good 77-79 CB; plus 79-83 CU that he has worked very hard on, but sometimes goes away from for too long; both the SL and CB are very inconsistent offerings; 6-4, 200 pounds

Academia de Milagrosa (PR) HS RHP Jorge Lopez is a really intriguing mix of polished present stuff and long-range upside. He currently can throw three pitches for strikes – fastball, curve, change – and there’s a chance each pitch winds up big league average or better. He’s also a great athlete with exactly the kind of projectable frame that gets the scouts hot and bothered.

RHP Jorge Lopez (Academia la Milagrosa, Puerto Rico): 88-91 FB with good command, 93 peak; very good 73-75 CB; plus CU; 6-5, 175

The early pro reports on Long Beach State RHP Drew Gagnon’s velocity are promising (e.g. fewer pitches in the upper-80s, peaking at 95), but I’m still lukewarm about any pitcher without one clear knockout pitch. His slider (82-85) shows the most promise, but he leaves it up too often and has difficulty putting it in a spot where hitters will consistently chase it. There remains value in Gagnon’s steady three-pitch assortment (he still throws the curve, a fourth pitch, but that should be scrapped going forward) and his plus fastball command, like Jungmann, is attractive, but limited upside keeps me from loving the pick. I do appreciate the stacking of starting pitchers early, however; it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that the Brewers added four big league starting pitchers with their first four picks in the draft.

Long Beach State JR RHP Andrew Gagnon: 89-91 FB, has hit 93-94; once promising slurvy breaking ball has turned into above-average 82-85 SL; rapidly improving 85-86 CU that is now at least an average pitch; plus command; 78-82 CB; breaking ball command an issue; 6-2, 188 pounds

Lefthanded power and good defense does not a star first base prospect make. Cal State Fullerton 1B Nick Ramirez can hit it out of the park and shows no problems fielding his position, but the expectations for a first base prospect are likely too high for him to ever provide value as an everyday player. I don’t think he’ll struggle so much as a hitter that he’ll ever be tempted to return to pitching, but the thought of him someday holding down a lefthanded reliever/power bench bat role makes me happy. For me, Nick Ramirez is the next step of the evolution that began the post-injury version of Joe Savery.

Ramirez has a well-deserved reputation as a power hitting first baseman with a plus throwing arm, but what I think I enjoy most about his game is his quality defense. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: no matter what becomes of Ramirez as a pro, he’ll go down as one of my favorite college players to watch.

Overslot fifth round pick Leander HS (TX) OF Michael Reed is a toolsy yet raw athlete from Texas. He looks great in a uniform and possesses the strength you’d normally see from a star football player, but there are legitimate questions about how he’ll bat will play as a pro. The fifth round is as good a time as any to start taking chances on prospects like this.

[strong; plus arm; average speed; raw bat; shows all five tools]

Most high school athletes are raw. That’s a fairly uncontroversial statement that we can all agree to, right? There are, of course, degrees of rawness, but the gap between what a player shows as a teenager to what he’ll hopefully show once he’s on the precipice of becoming a big league ballplayer is immense. The following might be a little bit more subjective, but hear me out: Like Michael Reed, Newbury Park HS (CA) RHP Daniel Keller is another raw prospect with big tools, but, as a pitcher, has upside that can be more reasonably met with good instruction. At one point or another, Keller has shown all of the things you’d want to see in a future big league pitcher: his fastball sits between 88-92 (peaking 93-94) with occasionally impressive sink, his change has shown flashes of being an above-average pitch, and both his curve and slider look like usable pitches on his best day. The problem with Keller is that he’s never really had all of his pitches going at the same time. That, combined with a delivery befitting a pitcher as raw as he is, makes Keller a long-term project. The abilities that go into throwing hard, locating pitches, and spinning breaking balls strike me as skills that you own forever (more or less) once you’ve shown that you can do them. Figuring out how to hit all these crazy pitches, like Reed will have to do, requires a far steeper learning curve. In other words, all else being equal, I’ll take the raw pitcher over the raw position player.

RHP Danny Keller (Newbury Park HS, California): 88-92 FB, 94 peak; good sinker; raw but interesting CU; good 79-80 CB; 75 SL; raw; violent delivery; 6-5, 185

Mississippi RHP David Goforth throws very, very hard. That’s good. David Goforth also throws the ball very, very straight. That’s less good. Pro hitters don’t have as much trouble squaring up on straight fastballs as their SEC counterparts. Upper-90s heat can work even without a ton of movement when complemented with a consistent, well-placed offspeed pitch. When on, Goforth’s slider qualifies and, though it isn’t offspeed per se, the new and improved cutter could also work. Big fastball plus the potential for an interesting secondary plus a max effort delivery all adds up to a future big league reliever.

Mississippi JR RHP David Goforth: 93-96 straight FB; has hit 97-99 in relief; average 79-83 SL that flashes plus; occasional CU; max effort delivery; good athlete; poor command; new 88-91 cutter has been effective; has been up to 98-100 in 2011; 5-11, 185

Biggest thing working in Brookswood SS (BC) C Dustin Houle’s favor is time. He’s young enough that he’ll have plenty of time to show that he can hit professional pitching and defend at either third or behind the plate. I know it is a lazy comp and I apologize, but I’m a lazy apologetic man: Houle’s perfect world upside sounds a lot like fellow Canadian Russell Martin to me.

Houle probably fits best behind the plate, but I’m sticking with him as a third baseman for now. He is a talented player who will need a lot of minor league reps. That shouldn’t be a problem for him because, as one of the youngest draft-eligible players this year, youth is on his side.

I’ve heard the Brewers were pleasantly surprised at how good La Grange HS (GA) OF Malcolm Dowell looked in his first shot at pro ball. They knew he was a great athlete who would steal bases and cover a lot of ground in center, but his approach to hitting was far more refined than expected. If everything works out, he has leadoff hitter upside. Not a bad potential outcome for a player I personally badly missed on leading up to the draft.

I honestly can’t remember why I cooled on Oklahoma State LHP Mike Strong this past spring; reports on his stuff were somewhat down in 2011, but his results remained as strong as ever. He succeeds with a good fastball and a better curve. A new cutter and better conditioning helped him pitch deeper into games, but his iffy control might not be what the pros want out of a starting pitcher. As a lefty with three usable pitches, he’ll get his chances even if he moves to the bullpen in the not so distant future.

Oklahoma State SR LHP Mike Strong (2011): 88-92 FB; holds velocity late; plus hammer mid-70s CB; cutter; developing CU; 6-0, 180 pounds; (9.65 K/9 – 4.90 BB/9 – 4.42 FIP – 64.1 IP)

Florida RHP Tommy Toledo (Round 11) is an intriguing sleeper that could emerge as a legit starting pitching prospect if his arm checks out. When he commands his low-90s fastball, he’s tough to hit. If the starting experiment doesn’t work, Toledo can always move back to the bullpen into the role he played so well while at Florida.

Florida JR RHP Tommy Toledo: coming back from arm injury; 88-91 FB; took line drive off of face in 2010; 91-93 back and healthy; command comes and goes; really nice breaking stuff

Neither UNC Wilmington OF Andrew Cain (Round 12) nor Holly Springs HS (NC) LHP Carlos Rodon (Round 16) signed with Milwaukee, so both will head back to the great state of North Carolina to play college ball. In the case of Cain, he’s taking his pro grade speed, raw power, and size back to UNC Wilmington. An improvement to his offensive approach would go a long way towards getting him picked where the rest of his talent – we’re talking top five tools – warrants. Rodon will give it the old college try at North Carolina State. He’s flashed well above-average stuff across the board, but inconsistency rightfully knocked him down on draft day. Those three potential pro pitches – fastball, slider, and change – make him a potential first day pick next time around.

LHP Carlos Rodon (Holly Springs HS, North Carolina): 87-89 FB, peak 92-93; loses velocity early; 75-76 CB; good 76-80 SL; emerging CU; raw enough that he may be better off at NC State; inconsistent offspeed stuff; spotty command; good athlete; 6-2, 210

Outside of the three pitchers taken by Milwaukee in the first two rounds, Lufkin HS (TX) SS Chris McFarland (Round 18) is the best long-range prospect selected in 2011. All of his tools work really well at third, and I believe in his bat in a big way. Reagan HS (FL) C Mario Amaral (Round 17) got away, but he’ll be a fun prospect to watch develop at Florida State.

The 2014 draft class might wind up loaded with premium third base prospects if all of the supposed difficult signs wind up at their respective universities. McFarland’s down senior year has many thinking he’ll wind up at Rice this fall. That’d be great news for college baseball, but a bummer for the fans of whatever team drafts him. They’d be missing out on an excellent athlete with five-tool upside at third. McFarland’s lightning quick bat is his best tool, followed closely behind by his well above-average raw power and aided by his discerning eye at the plate. His speed, size, and arm are all exactly what you’d want out of a potential big league regular.

I’m a huge sucker for hitters who know the strike zone better than the umpire, so count me in as a fan of Connecticut 1B Michael Nemeth (Round 21). Unfortunately, I’m more of a fan of Nemeth the player rather than Nemeth the prospect, if that makes sense. It’s really hard to hitch your wagon to a first base only prospect without neither a plus hit tool nor plus power. Patient hitters with gap power who play above-average or better defense are not without value, but those guys face a pretty massive uphill slog to legit prospectdom in today’s game.

Nemeth’s name kept coming up in discussions with people in the know leading up to the publication of this list. He was admittedly off my radar heading into the year, but those 2011 plate discipline numbers are eye popping. After having seen him myself a few times this year, I can say he looked to me like a guy with good power to the gaps with the chance to be an average hitter and above-average defender down the line.

I’ve long been a fan of Florida C Ben McMahan (Round 23), and see no reason why he won’t turn up as a big league backup catching option a few years down the line. He won’t hit enough to play every day, but his defense is top notch.

There is still a part of me that thinks McMahan could surface a few years down the line as a big league backup, based largely on the strength of his plus defensive tools.

Georgia RHP Michael Palazzone (Round 24) doesn’t wow you with the fastball (sits upper-80s, 92 peak), but his top two secondary pitches are good ones. A good final season for the Bulldogs could get him taken in the top ten rounds.

Georgia JR RHP Michael Palazzone: 92 peak FB; plus CU; solid CB

If Orange Coast CC RHP Chad Thompson (Round 27) is healthy, then the Brewers got a major steal this late in the draft. He’s got the size, heat, and upside of a prospect who typically would be selected within the first five rounds. In a weak Brewers farm system, Thompson could rise up into their top ten by season’s end. Or his stuff, slow to recover from Tommy John surgery so far, never returns to his high school level. If that’s the case, the Crew are out a 27^th round pick. Classic low risk, high reward pick. Either way, great gamble by Milwaukee at this stage in the draft.

Thompson is huge (6-8, 215) with an explosive low-90s FB (90-93) peaking at 94-95, nasty splitter, upper-70s circle change with serious sink, and a raw mid-70s curve that needs polish. There are also rumblings that he now throws a good forkball, but, haven’t not seen him personally since high school, I can neither confirm nor deny its existence. If Thompson’s elbow is structurally sound after last May’s Tommy John surgery, the Phillies have a major sleeper on their hands.

On top of being a pretty darn fine draft prospect, Mesquite HS (TX) C BreShon Kimbell also deserves credit for being a man of many names. Baseball America has him listed incorrectly as “Kimbrell” in their draft database and the Louisiana Tech website lists his first name as Bre’shon. I personally like Bre$hon, but just because I think it looks cool. The unsigned Kimbell has a heck of a chance to become Louisiana Tech’s best draft prospect since Brian Rike in 2007. If/when he reaches the bigs, he’ll have his sights set on David Segui, currently the most accomplished Bulldog of all time. Kimbell has the raw talent to do big things in college, but he has a long way to go.

Kimbell is unusually strong, very athletic, and a gifted defender. He also has shown big raw power in the past, but inconsistencies with his swing mechanics make his trips to the plate hit or miss, no pun intended. Some good pro coaching could turn him into a high level pro prospect in short order. Also, BreShon – a fella with a name like that is obviously destined for greatness, even though I sometimes read it as Bre$hon.

You know Maryland SS Alfredo Rodriguez (Round 32) must really, really, really be able to pick it at short if he pulled off getting drafted despite a 2011 slugging percentage less than Ravens tackle Michael Oher’s listed (313 pounds) weight.

The most highly regarded returning Terrapins prospect is JR SS Alfredo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a really good defender who will definitely stick at short as a pro. He made strides with the bat last spring, but is still almost exclusively a singles hitter at this point. Needless to say, great defense or not, I’m not as high on him as I know some are. 

Born, raised, educated, and now a professional ballplayer, all in the great state of Wisconsin. Wisconsin-Milwaukee RHP Chad Pierce (Round 38) is just a bit more than a feel-good local pick, however; his fastball peaks at 92 and he’s got the athleticism you’d expect from a converted college catcher.

Connecticut LHP Elliott Glynn (Round 39) is a crafty lefty with a mid-80s fastball that dances low in the zone often enough to get him way more groundballs than your typical crafty lefty. He also has two solid secondaries (slider and change) that he’ll throw at any point in the count. There’s some relief upside here which, for a 39^th rounder, makes Glynn more interesting than most. Connecticut C Doug Elliot (Round 35), Glynn’s college battery mate, is a solid defender with interesting but undeveloped power. Seems like a handy org guy to me.

Connecticut SR LHP Elliot Glynn (2011): upper-80s FB with good movement; 82-83, peak at 86; solid SL; plus CU

I’ve heard conflicting reports on whether or not we’ll be seeing Trinity Christian Academy (FL) SS Ahmad Christian (Round 46) play baseball for the Gamecocks this spring. He’s such a good athlete that the NFL is a possibility down the line, but I still hope he gives baseball a shot. His defense at short is already professional quality. In reading up on both Christian and new teammate/fellow two-way athlete Shon Carson, I stumbled upon a fact that I feel like the last person on the planet to either know or care about. Sheldon Brown, former Eagle and current Brown defensive back, was a part-time outfielder for the USC baseball team?

It sure doesn’t seem like Christian will sign a pro contract this year, but his crazy athleticism, great range, and plus glove are all too good to leave him off this list. In the likely event he’ll wind up at South Carolina, it’ll be interesting to track his development as a dual-sport (the other being football) prospect. Like Hunter Cole before him, going off to school could be a blessing in disguise for his long-term outlook. There are still many concerns about Christian’s offensive ability and three years in the SEC will provide a clearer picture of his skills.

So much has already been written about Lindor that I think I’ll cut right to the chase and explain what excites me about him and what worries me about him. First, and most obvious, is the glove. There are many factors that lead to attrition when it comes to amateur shortstops hoping to stick at the position professionally, but Lindor is as safe a bet as any prep player to stay at short that I can remember. He has the range, the hands, the instincts, the athleticism, and the arm to not only stick up to middle, but to excel there. With that out of the way, we can focus on his bat. At the plate, Lindor has one big thing going for him: his age. At only 17 years of age, Lindor is one of the 2011 draft’s youngest prospects. For a guy with as many questions with the bat as Lindor has, it is a very good thing that he has time on his side. His swing really works from the right side, generating surprisingly easy pull power. From the left side, there is much work to be done. There is something about his lefty stroke that seems to limit his power (can’t put my finger on what exactly), but you have to imagine good coaching and hard work give that a solid chance to improve. The iffy swing is mitigated some by his impressive bat speed, but it is still a worry. On balance, however, I have to say I do like his raw power upside as much as any of his offensive tools (hit tool is average for me and I don’t think he’ll be a big basestealing threat as a pro) and can envision a future where he hits upwards of fifteen homers annually. This may be an example of me forcing a comp when there really isn’t one there, but I’ve come around to the idea that Lindor shares many similarities to current Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus (Lindor’s power advantage and Andrus’ plus speed make this one a stretch, but I could see vaguely similar batting lines despite the differences). Rather than a ceiling comp, however, I’d say that Andrus qualifies as Lindor’s big league floor. If we’re talking upside, Lindor compares favorably with Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

2. SS Trevor Story (Irving HS, Texas)

Trevor Story is about 90% of Francisco Lindor with only about 10% of the hype. His biggest tool is the draft’s best infield arm, a literal rocket launcher (note: arm may not be literally a rocket launcher) affixed to his upper body capable of producing consistent mid-90s heat. His range at short is more good than great, but his crazy arm strength actually helps in this regard as it enables him to play back far enough in the hole. Unlike Lindor, I think more of his hit tool than his raw power – his swing is at its best when geared towards making solid contact, and he actually hurts himself when he overswings to create more power.

3. SS Tyler Greene (West Boca Raton HS, Florida)

Greene has two clear plus tools — raw power and speed — and the defensive tools to stay up the middle. His unusually quick hands at the plate allow him to hit to all fields, but it is a bit of a double-edged sword – those same quick hands seem to have given him the belief that he can hit anything throw within six inches of the plate, a good plan if you are Vlad Guerrero but maybe not the best plan of attack for a young hitter. A little more plate discipline and some polish in the field would go a long way in making the elite shortstop prospect his other tools dictate.

4. SS Brandon Martin (Santiago HS, California)

What stands out to me about Martin’s game is his approach to hitting. His speed is good, his arm is good, and the likelihood he sticks at shortstop is, well, good, but it is his potential plus hit tool and professional approach at the plate that separates him from the pack. Regular readers of the site probably realize that certain hitting-related buzzwords — approach, patience, maturity — get my attention more than others — aggressive being the first that comes to mind — and many of my favorites just so happen to be words that scouts often use to describe Martin.

5. SS Julius Gaines (Luella HS, Georgia):

There are about a dozen prep shortstops who can realistically lay claim to “potential big league shortstop,” a statement that is more about their defensive futures than any kind of upside at the plate. When projecting shortstops long-term, defense is king. If there is one thing we are sure Gaines can do, it’s defense. How the bat develops is a whole other story, but his range and hands at short are so good that his hit tool is almost an afterthought. Almost.

6. SS Connor Barron (Sumrall HS, Mississippi)

It is easy to see why Barron has been on of the draft’s fastest risers this spring. He has great speed, a strong arm, and a big league frame that makes projecting his bat a easy relative to many of his draft class peers. The Reid Brignac comps are popular, and with good reason.

7. SS Drake Roberts (Brenham HS, Texas)

My thought on Roberts at the onset of the season was that he was probably good enough to stick at shortstop as a professional, but not a candidate to ever win himself a Gold Glove along the way. Things have since changed. Now I’m not necessarily ready to predict that he’ll win any hardware down the line, but, man, has his defense progressed nicely since last summer. We’re talking excellent hands, smooth actions, good first step quickness, above-average range to his left, and an average arm that plays up because of its accuracy.

8. SS Mikal Hill (Mallard Creek HS, North Carolina)

Heard a Delino DeShields comp on Hill that I find pretty interesting, but I like to compare his upside to early career (i.e. pre-power spike) Chuck Knoblauch. His plus range and plus-plus speed ensure he’ll be able to contribute even if the bat doesn’t come around. That’s not to say that his tools at the plate are bad – he has a long history of hitting high velocity pitching and a hit tool that grades out as average down the line. I am less sure of his ultimate ceiling with the bat (mainly the power…again, I don’t expect him, or almost any amateur middle infielder, to ever be a power hitter, but showing even the threat of a little bit of pop as opposed to no pop goes a long way because of how professional pitchers attack certain types of hitters) when compared to fellow defense first prospects Julius Gaines and Drake Roberts, thus explaining his spot below each guy on this list.

9. SS Chris Mariscal (Clovis North HS, California)

Broken record alert: Mariscal has really good defensive tools at short, a plus arm, above-average speed, a solid hit tool, and not a whole lot of power. In other words, he is pretty much exactly what you’d expect out of a non-first round high school shortstop prospect. Sorting out these players is something I do for fun here in this low-stakes couple thousands hits a day website; I can’t imagine how difficult it is to do it with literally millions of dollars of future player value at stake.

10. SS Nico Slater (Jupiter HS, Florida)

Slater is another quick rising prospect who showed a much improved bat in the latter half of the spring. If that progress is real, then his newfound combination of that average or better hit tool and his already good enough to stick up the middle defense (and plus arm strength) make him a viable option for a team looking for a long-term starting option once the elite talents are off the board.

11. SS Mitchell Walding (St. Mary’s HS, California)

Tools, tools, tools. Based solely on his intriguing blend of future power, arm strength, and defensive upside, Walding could be ranked just outside the top five on this list. As it stands, however, he falls a bit later because the gap between what he currently is and what he could be some day is substantial. The power upside is dependent on his pro frame (6-4, 185) filling out and his swing getting tweaked, the arm strength upside will rely on his weird arm action being adjusted, and the defensive upside will only be reached after thousands of groundballs off the fungo. If nothing else, I appreciate his high boom/high bust style of prospectdom, a fun departure from the series of “yes glove, maybe bat, no power” players that often make up the second wave of prep shortstop prospects. As an added bonus, if it all works out, he has the bat and power potential to start in the big leagues even if he has to move off short.

12. SS Brett Harrison (Green Valley HS, Nevada)

My first draft originally had Harrison with the second base prospects, but a quick word from a smart guy suggested I was underselling his defensive upside. I believe a sampling of that quick word included the phrase “unbelievably light on his feet, like he is fielding on a cloud” or something weirdly poetic like that. There isn’t a whole lot there with the bat just yet, but after being told he had a “criminally underrated pure hit tool” I reconsidered and relented. Still not sold on the power ever coming around, but if he can combine an above-average hit tool with solid defense and a good arm, then we’ve got ourselves a nice looking prospect. There is an outside shot Harrison could go undrafted if teams are as convinced as my smart guy seems to be about his commitment to Hawaii.

13. SS Tommy Williams (Palm Beach Gardens HS, Florida): quick bat; legit shortstop; strong arm

Williams has a quick bat, strong arm, and, most importantly, a very good chance to stay at shortstop now and forever. He gets a little lost in the shuffle in what is a very good year for Florida high school middle infielders, but he’s a good one.

14. SS Jack Lopez (Deltona HS, Florida)

Plus defensive tools will keep Lopez at short until the day he retires from the game to go sell life insurance (or whatever it is ex-ballplayers do these days).

15. SS Zac LaNeve (Pine Richland HS, Pennsylvania)

Pretty sure I have not correctly spelled the first name of a prospect who goes by Zack/Zach/Zac on my first try in the three years this site has been alive and breathing. I’m hoping I nailed it here with Zac, but my confidence level isn’t as high as it should be. My confidence in LaNeve as a solid mid-round sleeper option, however, is right on target. His tools won’t jump at you, but he can field the position and run a little bit. At this point on the list, those things are big.

For more on the top twenty college and top fifteen high school 2011 first base prospects…

Final 2011 MLB Draft College First Base Rankings

Final 2011 MLB Draft High School First Base Rankings

1. Utah JR 1B CJ Cron
2. 1B Travis Harrison (Tustin HS, California)
3. 1B Jacob Anderson (Chino HS, California)
4. 1B Dan Vogelbach (Bishop Verot HS, Florida)
5. 1B Dante Bichette (Orangewood Christian HS, Florida)
6. Florida JR 1B Preston Tucker
7. 1B Kevin Cron (Mountain Pointe HS, Arizona)
8. Vanderbilt SR 1B Aaron Westlake
9. 1B Rookie Davis (Dixon HS, North Carolina)
10. 1B Wallace Gonzalez (Bishop Amat HS, California)
11. Southern California JR 1B Ricky Oropesa
12. Washington State JR 1B Taylor Ard
13. Wichita State SO 1B Johnny Coy
14. 1B Ryan Krill (Portage Central HS, Michigan)
15. Cal State Fullerton JR 1B Nick Ramirez
16. North Carolina State JR 1B Harold Riggins
17. 1B Elliot Richoux (The Woodlands HS, Texas)
18. 1B Rouric Bridgewater (Diamond Ranch HS, California):
19. Walters State SO 1B Cody Stubbs
20. St. Mary’s JR 1B Troy Channing
21. Central Florida SO 1B DJ Hicks
22. Oklahoma JR 1B Cameron Seitzer
23. LSU-Eunice FR 1B Hommy Rosado
24. Cal State Fullerton SO 1B Carlos Lopez
25. 1B Skyler Ewing (Arlington HS, Texas)
26. Connecticut SR 1B Mike Nemeth
27. Georgia JR 1B Chase Davidson
28. East Tennessee State SR 1B Paul Hoilman
29. Minnesota JR 1B Nick O’Shea
30. Northwestern JR 1B Paul Snieder

Apologies for the ugly layout, I’m working on moving some things around and hope to have it fixed shortly. If you click “Continue Reading” it should look a lot prettier.

Connecticut JR OF George Springer

JR OF George Springer looked nothing like the player I had read so much about this spring. His results may not have been what you’d like to see, but the improved process stood out. Good pro coaching will do wonders for him, though it will be really interesting to see how much tinkering his future employer will really want to do after investing a hefty bonus in the college version of Springer’s swing. He looks a little bow-legged in the photo above, but it isn’t a great representation of his swing setup because it captures him just as he started his stride. I had great video of him swinging the bat, but it disappeared into the ether during a file conversion. As for Springer’s swing, again, I’m not a scout, but I was really impressed with his balance at the plate, both in his approach and follow through. I didn’t like his collapsed back elbow, but found many of his flaws to be those decidedly under the “Coach Him Up and He’ll Be Alright” umbrella. This may be a cop-out, but the rise of so many other prospects could really be a boon for Springer’s career. Taking him in the top ten scares the heck out of me, but if he slips closer to the middle or end of the round, watch out. Lowered expectations + more stable pro organization, especially at the big league level (less need to rush him) = transformation from overrated to underrated almost overnight.

Another quick note I’ll pass along without much comment: George Springer cares. I realize this is a dangerous game to play because, really, how can we ever know such a thing, but George Springer (his name just sounds better when you use the first and the last) cares, or, at worst, is one heck of an actor. I’d never get on a player for not reacting to a strikeout with anger (and, by extension, showing that they care) because, as a quiet guy myself, I know demonstrative displays of emotion shouldn’t be the standard by which we judge effort and dedication. But the way Springer reacted to an early strikeout — pacing back and forth in front of the bench seemingly in search of a tunnel to pop into and blow off some steam (soon enough, George) until finally settling to the far end of the dugout, just off to the side, where he took a knee, closed his eyes, and started pantomiming his swing — really stood out to me. Probably nothing, but there you go.

None of that changes my view of George Springer the prospect, by the way. Just thought it was a relatively interesting tidbit worth passing along. I have to admit that I do kind of love the idea of a player with a wOBA approaching .500 getting that worked up over a bad at bat. Or maybe I love the way a player who is is clearly pressing at the plate has still somehow managed to put up a league/park adjusted triple slash of .386/.482/.667 (as of mid-April).

Two pro comparisons for Springer came immediately to mind. The first is 100% physical and in no way any kind of projection of future pro value. Something about Springer’s body, swing, and overall on-field demeanor reminded me a great deal of Florida’s Mike Stanton. Again, the two are very different players, but the physical similarities were interesting. A comp like that is probably why most people don’t like comps, but they’ll live.

The second comparison is much, much better, I think. Springer’s upside and overall tools package remind me so much of Minnesota minor leaguer Joe Benson that it’s scary. File that one away…

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He’s no speed demon on the basepaths, he won’t approach double digit homers as a pro, and he’s not build like a prototypical professional outfielder, but, boy, JR OF John Andreoli can swing the bat. The way he controls the bat through the zone is a sight to behold. Some of the guy’s hits couldn’t have been rolled by hand into holes any better than he hits them. Beyond the pure hit tool, I asked around about certain players before the game, and almost to a man I was told to watch out for Andreoli’s bunting. One gorgeous second inning push bunt for a single might not be stone cold proof of anything, but it gave the pregame prognostication a little extra weight. He’s a well above-average defender in a corner that might be stretched some in center, though I’m not so sure his 55ish speed wouldn’t also work up the middle. Andreoli is probably nothing more than a late round organizational player at this point, but he could make for an interesting senior sign in 2012.

SR LHP Greg Nappo‘s upper-80s fastball plays up because of good deception in his delivery. It is still probably a below-average pitch on balance because the command isn’t quite what you’d hope it would be coming from a typical pitchability lefty. He relied quite heavily on the heater, mixing in occasional cutters and an average slow curve that he could drop into the strike zone more easily as the game went on. He’s also probably an organizational guy at this point, but he can always take pride that he’s the player featured in my header.

SO OF Billy Ferriter disappointed me a bit. Definite pro body, but he made a habit of swinging at junk and watching meaty fastballs go by. Small sample size, I know, but scouts made note that he’s made a habit of getting himself out all year long. Still like the upside, but have to keep telling myself he is only in his second year college ball. He’s draft-eligible this year, but unlikely to sign.

Really impressed by SO 2B LJ Mazzilli‘s swing and approach at the plate. He has a little toe-tap timing mechanism that reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds’ swing, only without the swing-and-miss length. Good speed, good athleticism, and good hands should keep him up the middle, and a little physical maturation at the plate could help turn him into one of those super annoying scrappy middle infielders we all know and love (or hate, depending on the player).

Still think I prefer JR UTIL Kevin Vance as part of a battery, whether that be behind the plate or on the mound, than at the hot corner. I like his above-average fastball/plus curveball combo and plus command as a potential relief arm down the line. If he sticks as a position player, I think that arm would be best served as a catcher. Surprised to see his batting line as weak as it is because I really liked his level, powerful, and well-balanced swing. A team could gamble on his upside, but it is starting to look like his down junior year could keep him a Husky for another season.

Villanova JR LHP Kyle Helisek has one of the most extreme wrist wraps/curls in the back during his delivery that I can remember. I won’t pretend to be an expert on pitching mechanics, but his windup looked painful to me. My main focus on the day was watching the Connecticut bats, so I didn’t notice much more than that, but I’ll probably see Helisek a few more times before the end of the year and/or next season.

Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed

I’m way more excited about JR SS Nick Ahmed‘s pro prospects after a weekend watching him play. My favorite sequence came after a 1-1 bunt attempt. Ahmed was hit with a pitch, but the umpire ruled he didn’t pull the bat back as he attempted to bunt for a hit. It wasn’t until he was halfway down the first base line until the umpire actually made the call. Ahmed was visibly upset with the call and kept repeating “no chance, no chance…” as he took to himself and anybody that would listen. Fast forward to later in the at bat: 3-2 count, fastball up in the zone, home run drilled deep and gone to left. No woofing afterwards, just a quick sprint around the bases, and back to the dugout. I’m still not totally sold on his power upside, but think he’ll hit enough to be league average with the bat assuming he plays a premium defensive position. On that note…

Ahmed is more difficult to judge in the field. He doesn’t look like a traditional shortstop (listed at 6-2, 205, though he was eye-to-eye with the 6-3 Springer), but he’s got a plus arm (not a direct comparison, but he has a similar flick of the wrist style throw to Jose Reyes) and more than enough athleticism to range in both directions. If he’s not a pro shortstop, and I really think he is, then he’d be best served moving to center, so as to better utilize his athleticism and surprising first step quickness, with third base as a backup to the backup. He has a long way to go before he becomes the player he’ll eventually be (if you can follow that), but I feel pretty comfortable slapping a big league utility guy floor on him.

1. Clemson JR SS Brad Miller
2. Coastal Carolina JR SS Taylor Motter
3. St. John’s JR SS Joe Panik
4. Connecticut JR SS Nick Ahmed
5. Michigan SO SS Derek Dennis
6. UCLA JR SS Tyler Rahmatulla
7. TCU JR SS Taylor Featherston
8. Oregon JR SS KC Serna
9. Virginia Military Institute SR SS Sam Roberts
10. Texas Tech JR SS Kelby Tomlinson
11. Long Beach State JR SS Kirk Singer
12. Southeast Missouri State JR SS Kenton Parmley
13. Lake Erie College SS Ryan Rua
14. California JR SS Marcus Semien
15. Vanderbilt SO SS Sam Lind
16. Troy SR SS Adam Bryant
17. Army SR SS Clint Moore
18. South Carolina JR SS Peter Mooney
19. LSU JR SS Austin Nola
20. Texas JR SS Brandon Loy
21. LSU JR SS Tyler Hanover
22. Tampa JR SS Taylor Wrenn
23. James Madison SR SS David Herbek
24. Southeastern Louisiana JR SS Justin Boudreaux
25. Virginia Tech JR SS Ronnie Shaban
26. Virginia Tech SR SS Tim Smalling
27. Oklahoma JR SS Caleb Bushyhead
28. South Florida JR SS Sam Mende
29. Minnesota JR SS AJ Pettersen
30. Wichita State JR SS Tyler Grimes

I wanted to focus on players at or beyond the halfway point on the list because, as I’m sure to repeat ad nauseum in the coming months, this year’s college third base class does not lack in star power. Crane and Woodward are two of my favorites despite the fact it is unlikely either will emerge as a viable big league starter. That can make lists like this weird; sometimes high floor prospects that profile better as future utility guys get the upper hand on boom/bust prospects that have the talent to start but not necessarily the required skills to thrive in a backup role…and sometimes they don’t. Anyway, both players are extremely well rounded – solid tools across the board for each, though Crane has more power and Woodward more speed – and both offer really interesting defensive versatility. Woodward’s speed and superior instincts should help him get pro looks all over the field (minimum: 3B, 2B, maybe CF?) while Crane’s history as a prep catcher could entice a team into trying him as a backstop professionally.

I originally had Lusson much, much higher (top ten, I think), but some last minute homework pushed him down; like Crane, he could get tried as a catcher professionally. Lusson’s college neighbor Jantzen Witte (Austin and Forth Worth are like right next door, right? Texas is one cozy state, after all…) is a draft-eligible sophomore with elite defensive tools with the chance to break out with the bat in 2011. Another Texan collegian, Vincent Mejia, is a favorite of mine from a statistical standpoint – love the way he controls the strike zone – but there were enough scouting concerns (raw power is average at best, super slow runner) that kept me from putting him any higher.

The Big 12 third base prospect list would be pretty darn impressive in its own right, with Ginther, Asche, and Juengel coming in the rankings back-to-back-to-back. That trio meets Buechele, Smith, and Lusson in the top twenty three, with Baylor’s Cal Towey ready to join the fun at twenty eight. It is very possible I was too harsh with both Ginther (loads of untapped potential due to his football background) and Asche (underrated defender with a really sound approach at the plate, despite underwhelming numbers). Juengel has the most raw power of the three, but loses out because of his below-average defense. Non-Big 12ers Threlkeld, Leeds, and Bream all have plus raw power, but, like Juengel, have serious questions about their defensive upside.

2. How did Tyler Holt fall to the tenth round last year?

3. I’ve always considered this site to be somewhat unique in the way player statistics drive the way college prospects are evaluated. I wish I was motivated and/or smart enough to make a little table, but here’s the gist of the stats/scouting Punnett square that I consider every time I think about a college player:

1. Good Numbers + Good Scouting Reports = BUY
2. Good Numbers + Questionable Scouting Reports = HOLD
3. Lackluster Numbers + Good Scouting Reports = HOLD
4. Lackluster Numbers + Questionable Scouting Reports = SELL

Players that fall under the first or last categories above are easy to sort out. Anthony Rendon is really, really good and, though I suppose there is some sport in figuring out how good “really, really good” actually is, there isn’t much debate about players in this category beyond that. Prospects in the last category don’t really exist, at least not in a world where we are being picky about using the word “prospect” to describe them; these college players are better at baseball than 99% of the general population, but aren’t talented enough to even get mentioned by anybody outside of their immediate family. Players in the middle two categories are where guys like me earn our imaginary internet cash money. Typically, I’m more willing to give the players in group two the benefit of the doubt over group three, but there is no hard and fast rule. It all comes down to the scouting reports, really; where they are coming from, whether or not they are firsthand accounts, the particular tools being praised or knocked, reasons for the players better/worse than expected output, the list could go on forever. For example, let’s say there is a player at State University that you happen to see play and fall in love with. You are convinced he has what it takes to be a pro, but his numbers don’t match up with what you’ve witnessed in front of you. That’s great! Sure, our eyes fool us plenty and sometimes we only see what we want to see, but the opposite is absolutely true as well. It’s not quite scouts vs stats, but more like projection vs production. I’m straying too far from where I want to go with Florida State now, so I’ll close with what I hope is one last succinct thought: just because Player X has hit better than Player Y as an amateur doesn’t mean that he’ll continue to do so, or even get the chance to do so, as a professional.

When making any kind of ranking or list, I almost always start by leaning towards production, but ultimately wind up working my way back towards favoring upside projection. The reason why I bothered to rehash this tired “debate” in the first place is to say that Florida State has a ton of fascinating production vs projection draft battles currently on the roster. I guess that what happens when you rely so heavily on junior college transfers like they do. SR RHP Daniel Bennett has been counted on in many big spots (10.40 K/9; 3.22 BB/9; 3.49 FIP; 36.1 IP) as the Seminoles primary non-closer relief pitcher. Versatile JR LHP Brian Busch has always gotten good results (8.65 K/9; 3.62 BB/9; 4.40 FIP; 77 IP) when called on. SR RHP Tyler Everett offers more (8.32 K/9; 4.26 BB/9; 3.37 FIP; 44.1 IP) of the same. Last year alone, that veteran trio pitched over 150 effective major college innings. Production! Then you have three new Seminoles with a combined total of zero innings pitched for Florida State: JR LHP Connor Nolan, JR RHP Adam Simmons, and JR RHP Gary Merians. To claim any of the three “untested” pitchers should rank over any arm in the more established trio would be a pretty clear win for projection over production, right?

Nolan intrigues the heck out of me. His fastball sits in the upper-80s, touching 91. His slider is a potential plus pitch. He also throws a curveball for strikes. Equipped with a three-pitch mix of his own (low-90s fastball and a good changeup/slider combo) Simmons isn’t too far behind. Merians has been on the radar since his high school days and more recently his stay in junior college. He has the plus arm strength that teams covet in potential back of the bullpen arms. Projection! Meanwhile, Bennett’s biggest strength is his deceptive sidearm delivery, Everett is a pitchability guy all the way, and Busch’s decent curve grades out as his only present above-average offspeed offering. I currently have them ranked, in order: Nolan, Bennett, Simmons, Merians, Busch, and Everett. I think all six players have a reasonable shot to be drafted this June, with Busch, second to last on my personal list despite his likely status as Florida State’s Saturday starter, probably the safest bet once you take everything into account.

Early 2011 Draft Guesses

The biggest sure thing on Florida State’s roster heading into 2011 is JR LHP Sean Gilmartin, a four-pitch Friday night starter that I can’t help but consistently underrate. Even though he has a very good mid-70s changeup and an above-average low-70s curveball, his inconsistent fastball, both in terms of velocity (sits mid- to upper-80s, peaks at 91-92) and command, worries me against professional hitters. Does a so-so fastball really undo the positives that three other potentially average or better (his low-80s slider isn’t great presently, but has the upside as a usable fourth pitch) secondary pitches bring to the table? As a guy who championed the pre-velocity spike Mike Minor, I’m inclined to say no, yet my instincts keep me away from endorsing Gilmartin as a potential top three round prospect. JR RHP Hunter Scantling’s quick report from last year holds up pretty well today: Scantling is huge (6-8, 270 pounds) and athletic, but his stuff still doesn’t quite match his imposing frame. That could change in a hurry, but for now he’s still sitting in the same upper-80s with iffy breaking stuff that he was at back in high school. It’ll be interesting to see if he’ll get more consistent innings as a starter or if Florida State opts to keep him coming out of the bullpen in 2011.Since then, his fastball has upped a bit in velocity (peaking 91) and his slider has markedly improved. The lack of an effective third pitch ought to keep him in the bullpen for now. Those are the only two locks to get drafted on the pitching side, in my view. The six pitchers mentioned above (Nolan, Bennett, Simmons, Busch, and Everett) all will be in the draft mix, but a lot will come down to their usage this spring. Believing that, I’d say Busch is the most likely of the sextet to go after Gilmartin and Scantling, but don’t rule out a name like Merians or Nolan jumping all the way up and becoming the second or third Seminole pitcher drafted.

The hitters are a lot more difficult to judge. There could be as many as ten Florida State position players selected in this year’s draft, a crazy number for any college team but even crazier for a good but not great college team. SR OF/RHP Mike McGee is a lock to get redrafted, but it’s not yet known if teams will ultimately prefer him in the outfield (like I do) or on the mound (like in last year’s draft). Either way, he’s one of the country’s best college players and a lot of fun to watch play. JR 2B Sherman Johnson is a huge personal favorite because of his outstanding plate discipline and above-average defensive tools. A second Seminole infielder, SR 3B Stuart Tapley, could hear his name crackled over the speaker phone; he’s got the skill set that could work as a four-corners bench bat as a professional. Florida State’s senior catchers – Parker Brunelle and Rafael Lopez – have both played below expectations in Tallahassee, but each player has shown flashes of their high level prep ability at times. Instinctually, I prefer Brunelle to Lopez, but both guys have strong points (Brunelle: athleticism and defense; Lopez: quick bat and strong arm) in their favor. In addition to McGee, the Seminoles return two additional outfielders with a chance to get taken in the draft. JR OF Taiwan Easterling reportedly scared off a team interested in drafting him in the fourth last year because of his extravagant bonus demands. If that story is true, one can only imagine what kind of attention the super toolsy former football player could draw with a big spring on the diamond. As is, the plus runner is almost a complete tools gamble. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have JR OF James Ramsey. Ramsey’s only above-average tool is his bat, but his prowess at the plate (.307/.453/.560; 51 BB/41 K; 218 AB) isn’t so great that teams will see much value in this limited to leftfield prospect. I suppose the direct comparison of Easterling and Ramsey is yet another example of projection over production, huh? I’ve left off, for now, talented junior college transfer Taed Moses and JR UTIL Jack Posey. Moses has gotten lots of positive buzz since enrolling at FSU; unfortunately, that’s the limit on what I know about him to this point. Posey is a super duper darkhorse prospect who might get overlooked by some who see him simply as Buster’s younger brother. Posey could get drafted late in 2011 by, say, the defending World Series Champions for that reason alone, but he’s actually a skilled ballplayer in his own right who hasn’t had the chance to show his abilities because of injury.

1.1 Washington – OF Bryce Harper ($9.9M, $6.25M guaranteed)
1.2 Pittsburgh – RHP Jameson Taillon ($6.5M)
1.3 Baltimore – SS Manny Machado ($5.25M)
1.4 Kansas City – SS Christian Colon ($2.75M)
1.5 Cleveland – LHP Drew Pomeranz ($2.65M)
1.6 Arizona – RHP Barret Loux
1.7 New York Mets – RHP Matt Harvey ($2.5M)
1.8 Houston – SS Delino DeShields Jr. ($2.15M)
1.9 San Diego – RHP Karsten Whitson
1.10 Oakland – OF Michael Choice ($2M)
1.11 Toronto – RHP Deck McGuire ($2M)
1.12 Cincinnati – C Yasmani Grandal ($2.99M)
1.13 Chicago White Sox – LHP Chris Sale ($1.656M)
1.14 Milwaukee – RHP Dylan Covey
1.15 Texas – OF Jake Skole ($1.557M)
1.16 Chicago Cubs – RHP Hayden Simpson ($1.06M)
1.17 Tampa Bay – OF Josh Sale ($1.62M)
1.18 Los Angeles Angels – 3B Kaleb Cowart ($2.3M)
1.19 Houston – RHP Michael Foltynewicz ($1.305M)
1.20 Boston – 3B Kolbrin Vitek ($1.359M)
1.21 Minnesota – RHP Alex Wimmers ($1.332M)
1.22 Texas – C Kellin Deglan ($1M)
1.23 Florida – 1B Christian Yelich ($1.7M)
1.24 San Francisco – OF Gary Brown ($1.45M)
1.25 St Louis – 3B Zack Cox ($2M)
1.26 Colorado – OF Kyle Parker ($1.4M)
1.27 Philadelphia – LHP Jesse Biddle ($1.16M)
1.28 Los Angeles Dodgers – RHP Zach Lee ($5.25M)
1.29 Los Angeles Angels – RHP Cam Bedrosian ($1.116M)
1.30 Los Angeles Angels – OF Chevez Clarke ($1.089M)
1.31 Tampa Bay – C Justin O’Conner ($1.025M)
1.32 New York Yankees – SS Cito Culver ($954K)
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1s.33 Houston – C Michael Kvasnicka ($936K)
1s.34 Toronto – RHP Aaron Sanchez ($775K)
1s.35 Atlanta – 2B Matthew Lipka ($800K)
1s.36 Boston – OF Bryce Brentz ($889K)
1s.37 Los Angeles Angels – OF Taylor Lindsey ($873K)
1s.38 Toronto – RHP Noah Syndergaard ($600K)
1s.39 Boston – RHP Anthony Ranaudo ($2.65M)
1s.40 Los Angeles Angels – OF Ryan Bolden ($830K)
1s.41 Toronto – RHP Asher Wojciechowski ($815K)
1s.42 Tampa Bay – OF Drew Vettleson ($845K)
1s.43 Seattle – RHP Taijuan Walker ($800K)
1s.44 Detroit – 3B Nick Castellanos ($3.45M)
1s.45 Texas – RHP Luke Jackson ($1.557M)
1s.46 St Louis – RHP Seth Blair ($751,500)
1s.47 Colorado – RHP Peter Tago ($982,500)
1s.48 Detroit – RHP Chance Ruffin ($1.15M)
1s.49 Texas – 3B Mike Olt ($717K)
1s.50 St Louis – RHP Tyrell Jenkins ($1.3M)