2009 MLB Draft

Mike Leake’s Debut

I hate being that guy who always quotes himself, but, well, allow me to quote myself:

Leake possesses a good fastball (sitting 88-92, peak 94), plus slider, above-average changeup, usable curve, plus command, plus control, plus athleticism, and, perhaps my personal favorite positive, intriguing potential with the bat. Can’t wait to see what he does with the Reds this season.

Ignore all that pitching stuff (6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 7 BB 5 K with 106 pitches — 57 for strikes — and 6 GO to 6 AO) and focus on the bolded part only. There are embarrassingly few things on this mortal earth that I love more than pitchers capable of handling the bat. Reading this quote made me all kinds of happy:

“I was almost more excited to hit today than pitch,” Leake said.

Again, ignore that totally unimportant pitching part (6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 7 BB 5 K with 106 pitches — 57 for strikes — and 6 GO to 6 AO) and focus on what really matters. At the plate, Mike Leake went 2-2 with a pair of singles. That’s good for a 1.000 batting average, people! I’ve read that Leake’s hat is heading to the Hall of Fame, but if it were up to me you’d better be sure it would be his batting helmet making its way to Cooperstown instead.

On a slightly more serious note, here’s the current plan outlining what is in store this week. All entries are subject to change, and, as always, requests are always encouraged.

Plan of Attack for Week of April 12, 2010

• Who Will Be Drafted? Atlantic 10 Edition
• Positional Rankings (position TBD…college lefties, maybe?)
• Alternate Reality Mock Draft (expect this on Friday, the only day of the week I actually have planned out already)
• Mystery Draft 2.0
• More Data!
• Responses to all comments that I missed this past week

Mike Leake = Big Leaguer

A look back through the archives at what has been written at this very site about the newest member of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation. The evolution of former Arizona State prospect and current big leaguer Mike Leake as seen through the lens of a nobody amateur draft prognosticator…

February 20, 2009

Leake was ranked 11th on my first ever published list of draft-eligible college players. Not bad, right? Just ignore the fact that he was sandwiched between Indiana’s Josh Phegley (a player I still like, but clearly not a prospect on Leake’s level) and the pitching version of Long Island’s James Jones, a player eventually drafted by Seattle as a toolsy outfielder. My evaluation of him at the time included the following defense of the “controversial” at the time ranking of Leake over Baylor’s Kendal Volz:

Leake over Volz is a little strange, but it came down to present plus command and movement over potential power plus stuff across the board.

February 27, 2009

One week later I noted the way Leake outdueled fellow future first round pick Kyle Gibson. Leake’s numbers that day: 8 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 10 K (11 GO/2 AO). Also noted at the time was Leake’s stellar groundball numbers: 19 of his 23 batted ball outs at that point in the season came on the ground.

March 3, 2009

This is where things starting to get hot and heavy with the Leake lovefest. His ranking (6th on a list of 2009 draft-eligible righthanded college pitchers) may not seem all that impressive, but keep in mind that meant only Aaron Crow, Tanner Scheppers, Kyle Gibson, Alex White, and Stephen Strasburg were ahead of him. Not a bad list of pitchers to fall behind, all things considered. His quick scouting report at the time looked like this:

Leake literally has everything I look for in a pitching prospect. Let’s do it bullet point style:

• Plus athleticism – has played first, second, short, and every outfield position as a Sun Devil
• Ability to handle the bat – hit .340/.500/.574 in 47 at bats last season (12/9 walk to strikeout ratio)
• Groundball inducing stuff – so far this season, 19 of his 23 non-K outs recorded have come on the ground
• Plus secondary pitch – slider works better as another groundball inducing weapon, but it also creates plenty of swings and misses
• Above-average third pitch – his changeup is nearly as good as his slider
• Plus command – his ability to spot any of his three pitches has earned him universal praise from scouts
• Plus control – roughly 1.75 BB/9 in his college career
• Plus makeup/competitiveness – only good things have been said by scouts, coaches, teammates, and parents about Leake’s drive to succeed and strong work ethic

What Leake is missing is an ideal frame (he’s 6-0, 180), an overpowering fastball (sits 89-92), and a whole lot of room for growth. I’d argue the last point a bit because I think any two-way player stands to gain a little something once they begin to focus solely on one aspect of the game, but, on the whole, those negatives are fair criticisms of Leake’s game. Fortunately, a blazing hot fastball and a “prototypical pitcher’s frame” each fall very low on the list of things I care about. A high radar gun reading on a fastball is a good thing, don’t get me wrong, but good fastball movement (something Leake has in spades) trumps good fastball speed every time. There is something to be said about a physical frame that needs filling out eventually producing a better fastball down the road, sure, but many college pitchers are what they are by their junior seasons anyway. The backlash against short righthanders is not grounded in empirical research, so I tend to actually look at short righthanded pitching as being a potentially undervalued asset in the draft every year. Yes, I just spun Leake’s lack of height as a positive. Your mileage might vary with that part of the assessment.

One industry comp and one personal comp for Leake before we wrap this thing up. First, my slightly off the wall comparison – highly-touted Japanese prospect Yu Darvish. Darvish has four inches on Leake and throws a knuckle-curve, but they have similar stuff (sinker, slider, change) otherwise. The better comparison may be the more common one – a lesser Tim Hudson, right down to the two-way talent shown at the college level. You could do worse than a poor man’s Tim Hudson come draft day.

My first prediction of where Leake would wind up drafted came at the end of the piece. Wasn’t quite on the money, but the guess worked pretty well for an early March estimate:

There will be sexier options on draft day for teams picking in the mid- to late first round, but there may not be as sure a bet to be a dependable major leaguer as Leake. I bet he is a target of teams with multiple high picks (Arizona) and mid-market franchises picking in the late teens/early twenties (St. Louis, Toronto, Houston).

March 10, 2009

When I updated the college big board with report card grades (a good idea for 2010 come to think of it), Leake received high praise:

11. Mike Leake – RHSP – Arizona State – One of the easiest grades to assign, Leake’s been phenomenal through three starts so far… A+

March 22, 2009

I can’t believe there is any doubt that Mike Leake has a first round caliber arm. His latest outing was excellent: 9 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 BB 15 K in a win over rival Arizona. His season numbers are pristine (48/7 strikeout to walk numbers in 40 innings of 1.35 ERA pitching) and his scouting reports have been positive all spring long.

April 2, 2009

Leake may be my favorite prospect in all the draft, but I’m not sure how much my opinion matters to teams drafting in the first round…yes, he’s a very good prospect and an almost sure-fire first rounder, but I don’t want my inflated opinion of him getting in the way of properly assessing his relative value.

May 8, 2009

Predicted Leake would go to Colorado with the 11th pick in the first round one month ahead of the draft

June 5, 2009

Stuck with Leake to Colorado with the 11th pick in last mock before the big day

June 9, 2009

Fourth on my last Big Board leading up to the draft! Fourth! My love of Leake as a prospect seemingly grew with every passing week. Nothing has changed from the glowing scouting report posted above. Leake possesses a good fastball (sitting 88-92, peak 94), plus slider, above-average changeup, usable curve, plus command, plus control, plus athleticism, and, perhaps my personal favorite positive, intriguing potential with the bat. Can’t wait to see what he does with the Reds this season.

Orioles, Dalles, and Cowan

I normally try to avoid the two things I’m about to do. I don’t like linking to somebody’s work if I can’t provide my own interesting take and, seeing I rarely have any interesting to say myself, I shy away from this popular (and easy to produce!) blog tactic. I don’t know, it just feels cheap to me to just throw up a link without adding to the conversation. I also really don’t like quoting myself because it feels tacky to me. Of course, now that I’m stumped on any ideas for new content, I’m more than happy to go all cheap and tacky if it’ll make my life easier. There’s a lesson in all this somewhere, I bet.

Enough with the boring introduction, onto the main course. I love these insider-y takes on scouting, the draft, and player valuation. The more first hand accounts detailing young mostly unknown players’ skill sets, the better.  Check it out, I’ll wait.

I enjoyed reading this piece entirely on its own merit, but once I realized it mentioned a couple of my favorite somewhat below the radar prospects from 2009 I knew that I had to squeeze a post out of it. The first name that caught my eye was Justin Dalles, catcher from South Carolina. I wrote this about him back in the day:

Dalles is exactly the kind of sneaky high upside, low risk that warrants taking a chance on once the top prep players on your wishlist are all long gone.

I waffled on his draft position before settling on him being taken in the 7/8 round range. He eventually went to Baltimore in the sixth. Baltimore scouting director Joe Jordan claims Dalles is an average defender with a slightly above-average arm, good enough athleticism, and a chance to have a bat worthy of starting in the bigs. Interesting.

I also loved Jake Cowan, ranking him as high as 13th overall among college righthanders and 1st overall out of the entire junior college ranks. Here’s what I said about him almost a year ago:

1. Jake Cowan (RHP – San Jacinto CC – Texas): Cowan combines a plus 95 MPH fastball with two above-average secondary offerings. A fastball like that coupled with strong secondary stuff makes Cowan stand out above his junior college peers. There are players below that have great fastballs, there are players below that have decent secondary offerings, but no player below combines the two quite like Cowan. To use an all too often repeated scouting cliche, Cowan is as much a pitcher as he is a thrower and that’s a very good thing going forward.

According to Jordan, Cowan was sitting 92-93 with the fastball, showing good sink on the pitch, in addition to a good slider and a decent changeup. It’s funny how you can see the vague scouting report from last February was inflated a smidge or two, but Cowan is no less of a prospect just because he didn’t hit 95 this summer or show as impressive a changeup as expected. The Orioles claim he was a third round talent that fell to them in the tenth. Not a bad gamble that late in the draft.

Now if only they didn’t take Matt Hobgood, future bust, with their first rounder. Alright, maybe I don’t really believe he’ll be a bust, but I certainly wasn’t enamored with the pick at the time. Anyway, that’s my conclusion. Impressed how I tied everything together there at the end? No? Don’t care, time for the weekend!

2009 MLB Draft Grades – Philadelphia Phillies

I don’t have a plan of attack in how I want to approach draft grades, so I just made up some categories and started writing. If anybody out there has a better idea on how to do this, I’m all ears. For now, my quick look at what each big league team did in the 2009 MLB Draft…

Three (3) Picks I Liked A Lot

Am I a byproduct of a the instant-gratification, “what have you done for me lately” generation? Do I place too high a value on a singular event that doesn’t have quite the real life importance explaining the way a team operates the way it does that I’ve assigned to it? Or am I just a typical Negadelphian who is only ever happy when there is something, real or imagined, to complain about? Yes, yes, and yes. I’m not happy that the Phillies, just one year removed from providing me with some of the very best moments of my young life, have now put themselves in the position where their 2009 draft class, a draft class that serves as a proxy to their true commitment to putting a winning product on the field, will be considered a success or failure based almost entirely on the whims of a 7th round high school righthanded pitcher from Louisiana. Brody Colvin (7th Round – HS RHP) is easily the most talented player taken by the Phillies in 2009, but whether or not he signs is a 50/50 proposition at best. No matter what happens, it’s hard not to like the pick itself, especially when looked at from an actual cost/potential benefit perspective. I’m finally buying into the Kelly Dugan (2nd Round – HS OF) selection, even though I’m not sure what to make of his ultimate upside. His is a weird skillset to wrap the head around as it isn’t every day a high school first baseman is converted instantly to centerfield as a professional. Lance Berkman is the pie in the sky optimist comp being bandied about, but even 80% of Berkman would work just fine over the long haul. Jonathan Singleton (8th Round – HS 1B) should be what Michael Durant could have been.

Three (3) Picks I Didn’t Like At All

Kyrell Hudson (3rd Round – HS OF) may in fact be a worthy high upside gamble in the third round (he looks great in a uniform, I’m told), but high school players with well below-average hit tools just plain don’t excite me personally. This seems like a research project worth looking into, though it may be difficult to objectively pin down the parameters to make it worthwhile. The Adam Buschini (4th Round – COL 2B) pick is a frustrating one because it brings back terrible memories of an inexplicably cheap Phillies ownership group overdrafting signable no-leverage college players for no clear reason.

Three (3) Best Bets to Play Major League Ball

Kelly Dugan and Brody Colvin are the two easiest names because each player has the upside needed to be above-average at their position while also coming ready made with useful enough tools that should play within the confines of a carefully carved out big league role if things don’t all come together and stardom isn’t achieved. The wild card of this group is Washington State LHP Matt Way, a fifth round pick. Brian Gump (26th Round – COL OF) could be a fifth outfielder somewhere, someday based on his plus speed tool alone, but now I’m just getting cute with this category. Part of my appreciation of Gump here is my coy way of mentioning that two of his many nicknames include “Hot Pants” and “Shiggles.” Shiggles Gump. For real.

California Condor Award (Longest Incubation Period aka Longest Expected Time in Minors)

Plenty of one promotion at a time high school guys in this particular class – lots of 2014 ETA’s. Hudson is probably the biggest name among the group that would take the longest time to reach the bigs…if that makes sense.

Highest Upside

Hudson is almost all projection at this point, so he would appear to be a favorite for this category. On paper, it does make some sense – Hudson is Eddie Murphy raw with tons of potential growth to his game. Then again, your mileage might vary on how high his actual upside really is. It’s great that he can run really fast and even better that his physical frame belies potential plus power down the road, but if a player can’t hit high school pitching with any kind of regularity then his upside is ultimately going to be quite limited. It’s too early to say Hudson — or any high school player for that matter — will never hit as a professional, so I won’t come out and say it, but…it’s generally not too wise to invest too much hope in players who haven’t shown the ability to make consistent contact against what should be overmatched competition. My real answer would be Colvin, a pitcher with true top of the rotation quality stuff and the drive to get there.

Tina Small Biggest Potential Bust Award (Google Her, It’ll Make Sense – NSFW)

Has to be Hudson at this point, right? He could conceivably never make it past AA. If you are counting on underslot top five round college signees to become above-average big league contributors, then you could also throw either Buschini or Way in the mix. I personally would be surprised to see Buschini get a big league at bat. That would make his selection a “bust,” right? I guess it depends on how we want to define “bust.” For now, I’m just looking at high round players (top five, generally) that have a long ways away from being big league quality players. Hudson fits that definition almost too perfectly.

Highest Floor

Way could be a back of the rotation crafty lefty starter if things break the way he and the Phillies hope, but his most likely landing spot is as a LOOGY. Austin Hyatt (15th Round – COL RHP) is another player that may not quite have the upside as a legit big league starter, but has just enough stuff and more than enough guile to outwork those around him and win a bullpen job someday.

Three (3) Unsignable (Probably) Players To Remember

I’m too much of an optimist to put Colvin here, so I won’t. I’d actually bet on him signing a pro contract in the next month or so over him heading down to LSU. If the category was really best non-top five round high school player, then Colvin, Singleton, and Andrew Susac (16th Round – HS C) would make for an easy top three. If we restrict the category to players picked in rounds 10 or later, the best bets to emerge as legit prospects in 2012 include Jake Stewart (Round 14 – HS OF), Susac, and Jeff Gelalich (Round 41 – HS OF).

Final Grade

As it stands now, this draft is one of the weaker ones from top to bottom. However, like many drafts around the league at this point, that potentially negative grade comes with plenty of caveats. Attempting to grade the Phillies prep bunch is tricky because it raises the question of talent vs. signability. Do you grade the high school players on talent or on the likelihood of whether or not each player signs? If it’s the former we’re ignoring the realities of the draft, but if it’s the latter then we’ve just wasted time analyzing picks that shouldn’t really be discussed until after the August signing deadline. I guess a balance is the way to go, let’s try that approach and see what sticks.

Dugan could be an above-average regular outfielder, but was still an undeniable overdraft and not great relative value. Hudson is an all or nothing pick, no other way of putting it. Singleton could be the high schooler than makes or breaks this particular subset (high school bats) because his power potential, bat speed, and age all point to big things to come. Aaron Altherr (Round 9 – HS OF) is Kyrell Hudson with better makeup, thus making him an excellent gamble at this point in the draft. An incredibly raw high school outfielder with a questionable hit tool in the third? Bad idea. Similar player in the ninth round? Let’s roll the dice and see if we can get lucky. Speaking of toolsy outfielders, Stewart and Gelalich both qualify as worthy shots in the dark past round ten. Stewart could part of the insurance policy the Phillies took out in case Colvin doesn’t sign. Susac and the already signed Marlon Mitchell (Round 27 – HS C) are both quality defensive catchers that could develop into starting caliber players.

Colvin is naturally the star of the prep pitching group. His basic scouting report (mid-90s fastball, near plus curveball, above-average athlete and hitter, sometimes sloppy mechanics) sounds a lot like former Phillies first round pick Kyle Drabek’s coming out of high school to me. Steven Inch (Round 6 – HS RHP) has a great frame and that fantastic blend of untapped potential mixed with present polish that make him a personal favorite. Colin Kleven (Round 33 – HS RHP), like Inch a Canadian, grades out as having a tad less upside and a great deal less polish, but he could be a possibility as an early August sign simply because he is one of the very few projectable arms drafted by the Phils here in 2009.

One or more out of Way, Nick Hernandez (12 Round – COL LHP), Hyatt, or still unsigned AJ Griffin (34th Round – COL RHP) should reach the bigs in some capacity – I’m personally a huge Griffin fan, though the lack of a signature on a pro contract by now seems to indicate the ship has all but sailed on him signing and he’ll head back to San Diego for his senior year. The quartet make up four of my favorite under the radar college arms from this year’s class, so at least they have that going for them. There are almost literally no college bats that profile as Major Leaguers, with the only exceptions being longshots like Buschini (who I’m on record as not liking), Darin Ruf (20th Round – COL 1B), and unsigned Texas A&M Aggie Brodie Greene (37th Round – COL 2B). I’m doubtful that any of the three get more than a handful of big league at bats, but Ruf was still a solid selection as a late round senior sign and Greene was a worthy gamble (though it is doubtful he signs) as an offensive second baseman in the 37th round.

Overall, it’s a draft heavy on high school bats and college arms. Based on what I know and what I think I know, they’ll sign two of the four toolsy outfielders (Hudson and Altherr), none or both of the prep righties (I think both Colvin and Inch sign), and then one of the two remaining potential impact bats (either Singleton or Susac, with Singleton being the more likely of the two). A haul of Colvin, Dugan, Singleton, Inch, (Susac), (Stewart), (Gelalich), Hudson, Altherr, Hernandez, Mitchell, Way, Ruf, Buschini, and Hyatt wouldn’t match the potentially historic 2008 draft class for overall value, but it still stacks up as an above-average group with plenty of impact upside.

C+

TEXAS v LSU – 2009 College World Series Championship Game One Live Blog

Let’s kick things off with one of the finest moves a second rate website like this can make – the shameless traffic grab, of course. Hundreds of years of research shows that there is no better way to wake up Google than plastering up a picture of a popular, pretty girl. Erin Andrews is doing the sideline reporting for ESPN, so this isn’t quite as gratuitous as it could be…but, yeah, it’s still undeniably transparent.

FIRST INNING

Heat Index – 107 degrees

I like LSU to sweep, by the way.

LSU Lineup: LeMahieu, Schimpf, Dean, Gibbs, Mahtook, Mitchell, Ochinko, Helenihi, Nola

LeMahieu, Schimpf, Dean, Mitchell, and Ochinko were all drafted in the 2009 MLB Draft.

Texas starter tonight is RHP Chance Ruffin. Fastball has been in the low-90s so far. Best secondary offering has probably been the backup high-70s slider.

Ryan Schimpf (Blue Jays draftee, round 5) blasted a high, straight fastball deep to right to get the Tigers on the board

Texas Lineup: Torres, Tucker, Belt, Moldenhauer, Rupp, Keyes, Loy, Clark, Rowe

SECOND INNING

Mikie Mahtook is white. I don’t know why that surprises me, but it does. It really does. I’m not proud of this fact.

Still can’t get over that Cameron Rupp homer that tied the game against Arizona State on Friday. I haven’t heard the measured distance on it yet, but it was an absolute rocket to dead center. Had to have been over 430 feet.

Louis Coleman (5th rounder by Kansas City) has only thrown fastballs so far (as far as I can tell). I don’t have all of his readings, but the ones I’ve caught are: 92, 88, 85, 89, 90, 88, 91, 88, 89. No sooner do I type that does he end the inning with a strikeout on a 79 MPH offspeed pitch.

THIRD INNING

Sampling of Ruffin’s work so far:

FB: 92, 92, 87, 93, 87, 91, 85, 91, 90, 91, 92, 86
SL: 78, 79, 77, 79, 79, 81, 80, 82
CU: 72, 74, 76, 76

I could be wrong about those changeups…I miss having a DVR.

You know who Coleman reminds me of? Mechanically, anyway. His delivery reminds me a lot of Alex White’s low arm slot. Still looks like a future reliever, but worth trying as a starter so long as the results are there.

FOURTH INNING

I legitimately forgot I wrote about Preston Clark earlier in the year. I knew I liked him, but I couldn’t remember if I thought about writing about him or if I actually followed through (a rare occurance, I know). Anyway, here’s what I wrote:

Preston Clark is one of the most talented players on the list and his incremental production from year to year at Texas is a nice sign going forward. He’ll never hit for a high average, but his plate discipline (29 BB in 179 AB last season) is good and he has just enough juice in his bat to keep pitchers honest. His health is a major question mark, but a spring that sees Clark in the lineup (and behind the plate) on a consistent basis should solidify him as prospect with a better than average shot of someday developing into a strong big league backup backstop. Even if he doesn’t catch all that often — sophomore Cameron Rupp is in line to get plenty of reps behind the dish as well — Clark’s defensive versatility (he’s capable of playing third and the outfield, in addition to catching) is an added bonus to his game.

I was wrong.

I really like Robin Ventura. He has two things that really work to his advantage from where I’m sitting – a) he’s quiet, and b) he has a sneaky sense of humor. I like Orel Hershiser just fine, but the way Ventura needles him is very amusing to me.

I didn’t really know about the LSU open stance thing before tonight. Quirks like that are one of the reasons I think college baseball is so much fun to follow – different programs preaching different things. From certain teams pushing certain pitches to the LSU open stance thing (I need a more clever name for it, but I’ve got nothing) to the infamous “Stanford swing,” college baseball is loaded with character if you just know where to look.

Who had odds on Travis Tucker hitting a homerun tonight? Travis Tucker’s mom, maybe, but that has to be about it. Baseball = funny game. Here’s what I said about Tucker earlier:

not a prospect worth going on about. He had a decent junior year (good on-base skills, tiny bit of pop, above-average baserunner), but his inability to play shortstop well will keep him as an organizational type at best.

Now Russell Moldenhauer, that homerun makes a little more sense. Well, it makes sense when you watch him hit. If you only saw his 2009 numbers, it’s an even bigger shock than Tucker’s. Moldenhauer came to Omaha with a whopping zero homeruns to his credit on the season. I’m a relatively big Moldenhauer fan, if such a thing outside of Texas exists:

Moldenhauer may yet rediscover the stroke that made him a third round pick once upon a time, but he is going to have to do so in a hurry if he wants to make it as a pro.

FIFTH INNING

I forgot to mention Kevin Keyes’s homer in the fourth. Now there’s a homerun that can’t really be classified as a surprise. Keyes has first round potential heading into 2010, but has been more projection than production as a collegiate player so far. He’s a very different player than Jared Mitchell (power is his game, not speed) and he doesn’t have football as a reason for stalled development like LSU’s 2009 first rounder, but I think he is in a similar spot at respective points in their development.

Ruffin is cruising through five. His command is starting to waver a tiny bit, but his mechanics have stayed surprisingly consistent despite the conditions. I’m way more impressed with him than I thought I’d be coming in.

Connor Rowe is a lot of fun to watch in centerfield. Not so much fun at the plate right now, however.

SIXTH INNING

Can Mikie Mahtook hit a breaking ball? Or take an accurate route to a flyball? His potential is vast, but there is no denying that you are watching a freshman, and a raw one at that, when you watch him play.

Jared Mitchell, what can you really say? Usain Bolt is probably faster than him, but that may be the extent of the list.

Only players with last names beginning with “M” matter, apparently. Mahtook, Mitchell, and now Moldenhauer. Russ Moldenhauer with two homers tonight. Both hits were “no doubt about it” homeruns that came on gorgeous swings. He’s now a guy to put on the early watch list for 2010 senior signs.

Laptop is dying, time to call it an early evening. Great game so far, should be fun to see how these last three innings play out…

Signings Update and College World Series Championship Live Blog

How are things? Just swell, I trust. Alright, enough about you. Let’s talk about me. Here’s what I’ve been up to when not traveling too far to go to rained out rookie league games…

First, I updated the signings page. I did it quickly — really, can you blame me? It’s important info, no doubt, but boring to write/talk about, I think — so feel free to jump in and offer any corrections or changes you see fit. I’m making up the slot/above slot/under slot distinctions as I go because, quite truthfully, I’m not really sure how I stand on the issue of MLB’s suggestion that bonuses be reduced by 10% across the board. I mean, it wasn’t a formal request, right? I know for a fact that some teams just laughed it off, so can we really claim that it’s the new standard for this year’s “slot” bonuses?

I can’t decide on what standard I should follow, and, like I alluded to earlier, I find the whole slot/above slot/under slot aspect of the draft to be the most tiring draft quirk to follow. What I’m trying to say is, I won’t lose too much sleep if I’m off on some of my big bold colored claims I’ve been making. If a correction needs to be made, call me out on it and I’ll happily oblige.

I’ve also spent time contemplating on which of the immediate post-2009 draft projects (team grades, round-by-round discussion, or a 2010 mock) I want to get to first. Decisions, decisions.

Lastly, I made the executive decision to sit on the couch and watch baseball tonight. There’s a pretty important college game going on, so I’m going to use the occasion as an excuse to watch entertaining baseball under the guise of doing the “work” of updating this too long dormant site of mine (I hate going a day without something up here, let alone almost a week). Check back later tonight for live updates and draft-related commentary about Game 1 of the College World Series.

MLB Draft 2009 – A Closer Look at Round 41

Now that the 2009 MLB Draft has come and gone (and, alas, so has the crazy traffic of early June), it’s time to get down to business in breaking down the best and the brightest from the ’09 draft class. After much thought, I’ve decided that the best way to get me back engaged with the 2009 MLB Draft was to randomly pull out a couple of rounds here and there in an effort to take a closer look at some of the most interesting prospects. I’m not sure how extensive this feature will be (there are still team by team report cards to do, as well as that 2010 mock draft and a slew of other summer-time goodies), so consider this more of a free-flowing sampling of what I’m hoping to accomplish rather than a rigid model. In the future we may want to look at multiple late rounds in a group because, well, if we keep up the hearty pace of profiling one round every weekday then this thing will drag on until the end of summer…and we’re far too busy with other exciting content for that, right?

3 Names to Remember or: Have Fun at School, See Ya in 2012

41.122 – Washington Nationals selection OF Dane Opel (Edwardsville HS, Illinois) – plenty to like about Opel including his potential plus defense in the outfield and a definite plus throwing arm; bat tool is still a little underdeveloped, but he’s got time to put it all together at a good school like Missouri; Opel has shot up in both height and weight since breaking onto the scene as a sophomore at Edwardsville, so it’ll be interesting to see if he keeps packing on the muscle if/when he grows another few inches while at school; Missouri commit

41.1234 – Texas Rangers selection LHP Forrest Garrett (Norcross HS, Georgia) – Garrett is a gigantic sleeper who has definite early round potential in 2012; his projectable frame should allow him to bump his already above-average fastball a few notches (sitting high-80s to low-90s), but his real money maker will be a potential plus changeup; throw in a curve with above-average potential and you’ve got yourself a three-pitch lefty with present solid command and a very bright future ahead; LSU commit

41.1247 – Philadelphia Phillies selection OF Jeff Gelalich (Bonita HS, California) – the tools-laden outfielder brings  a solid all-around mix to the field including a sweet lefthanded stroke, good speed, and a strong, accurate outfield arm; UCLA commit

Closest to the Major Leagues

41.1225 Pittsburgh Pirates selection UTIL Tyler Cannon (Virginia) reminds me of a better version of Missouri’s Greg Folgia, a player picked a round higher by the Indians. Cannon is solid in all phases of the game, but lacks fluidity on defense at any position. Between his lack of a defensive home and his steady, but unspectacular bat, Cannon has many believing his professional role will be that of a super-sub capable of playing literally every position on the diamond, including catcher. His college counting stats (through his first two seasons) match up with Eric Bruntlett’s in almost an eerie way, but, as you can see, the comparison falls apart when you see what each player’s rate stats look like:

Anyway, I’d say that the Bruntlett comp may actually be a tad optimistic at this point. Cannon’s collegiate track record isn’t quite as strong as Bruntlett’s and he lacks Bruntlett’s tremendous Civil War reenactor style beard, but I’d bet on enough marginal improvements as he progresses into his mid-20s to see him getting a chance as a AAAA utility guy good enough to position himself as a potential callup when injuries to the more talented players occur.

41.1223 – Seattle Mariners selection RHP Kyle Witten (Cal State Fullerton) could benefit from scrapping a few of his iffy secondary offerings and re-inventing himself as a professional in the mould of agroundballing reliever who throws sinkers, sliders, and splitters. Velocity isn’t a problem for the big righty (he has touched 94 with frequency), but his performance this year for an excellent Fullerton team didn’t exactly light the world on fire. The raw power stuff is undeniable, but harnessing it has been an issue. This year marks the third time Witten has been drafted; could he return to school one more season with the hopes that a big senior year makes his fourth go-around with the draft a charm?

41.1227 – San Francisco Giants selection RHP Gary Moran (Sonoma State) has dominant enough numbers to warrant at least a mention here in the 41st round. Also worth a mention, Moran is a giant. Check out the line that the 6-8, 265 pound righthanded pitcher put up this year for the season:

Player                 ERA   W-L   APP  GS  CG SHO/CBO SV    IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  2B  3B  HR   AB B/Avg   WP HBP  BK  SFA SHA
38 MORAN, Gary......  1.37   7-2    13  13   0   0/2    0  78.2  57  16  12  10  71   8   2   0  281  .203    4   8   0    3   7

Moran won’t blow you away with radar gun readings, but he throws a heavy fastball that bores in on righthanders to get plenty of groundball outs. He also has an above-average curve and, as supported by his numbers, sparkling control. Moran isn’t the usual late round college flier (he’s been drafted twice before), so don’t be shocked to see late round success story Gary Moran pitching out of a big league bullpen near you someday.

Highest Upside

Garrett is a personal favorite of mine (something about those plus changeups just gets to me), but an argument could easily be made for Opel, a guy who should see plenty of at bats right from the start at Missouri.

Potpourri

41.1226 - RHP Mason Magleby (picked by Baltimore out of Del Oro HS, California) has already come out and said that he is heading to the University of Nevada to play football. Baltimore’s loss is the Wolfpack’s gain, I guess.

41.1244 – 1B Travis Ozga (picked by the New York Mets out of Florida Atlantic) has easily the best last name in all the draft. As far as I know, we aren’t related…unless Travis goes on to light it up as a professional, of course. In that case, my long lost brother better look me up…

MLB Draft 2009 – A Closer Look at Round 40

Now that the 2009 MLB Draft has come and gone (and, alas, so has the crazy traffic of early June), it’s time to get down to business in breaking down the best and the brightest from the ’09 draft class. After much thought, I’ve decided that the best way to get me back engaged with the 2009 MLB Draft was to randomly pull out a couple of rounds here and there in an effort to take a closer look at some of the most interesting prospects. I’m not sure how extensive this feature will be (there are still team by team report cards to do, as well as that 2010 mock draft and a slew of other summer-time goodies), so consider this more of a free-flowing sampling of what I’m hoping to accomplish rather than a rigid model. In the future we may want to look at multiple late rounds in a group because, well, if we keep up the hearty pace of profiling one round every weekday then this thing will drag on until the end of summer…and we’re far too busy with other exciting content for that, right?

3 Names to Remember or: Have Fun at School, See Ya in 2012

40.1216 – Milwaukee Brewers selection RHP Kyle Hansen (St. Dominic HS, New York) – tremendous potential with a massive but loose frame (6-7, 200) and a fastball that has touched the mid-90s; St. John’s commit with a big future ahead of him

40.1195 – Pittsburgh Pirates selection LHP Brett Lee (West Florida HS, Florida) – fastball sits in the upper 80s, but I’ve heard he can dial it up to the low-90s (as high as 92) with little effort; curve has potential to an above-average pitch; the exciting aspect of Lee’s game is his great frame that has scouts dreaming on his upside once he fills out; Florida State commit

40.1220 – Chicago Cubs selection RHP Eric Whaley (Cardinal Gibbons HS, Florida) – what Whaley lacks in projection he makes up for in usable present stuff; his fastball in the high-80s has good movement, but may not get a whole lot also throws an above-average (C+ now, could be a solid B before long) change and a decent (C- now, could be C+) curve

Closest to the Major Leagues…Yes, Closest is a Relative Term

40.1205 – Cleveland Indians select UTIL Greg Folgia (Missouri) – Folgia wins this one by default, as my quick count only shows 10 four-year college players drafted in the round. He’s a little too much of a hacker for my personal taste, but there is no denying that he brings a interesting blend of talents to the table . This prediction may be null and void (or at least delayed an entire year) if the rumors of Folgia returning to Missouri for his senior year are as legitimate as they sound…

Highest Upside (aka What Would Be My Favorite Pick If Every Player Was Actually Signable)

Hansen over Lee in a surprisingly tight contest. Hansen has the total package to be a first round pick in 2012, while Lee’s upside may be as more of a second or third rounder.

Bryce Harper

That draft in 2009? Old news. Stephen Strasburg? Forget about him. We have seen the suddenly surprisingly near future – all Bryce Harper, all the time.

Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated

I’m not a fan of writing about straight “news” pieces (there are literally thousands of better websites to go to for that), but I’ve publicly ignored Bryce Harper long enough. The big story that broke over the weekend is that, yes, Nevada high school catcher Bryce Harper has taken the first steps towards locking up his place atop 2010 draft boards everywhere by registering for classes at the College of Southern Nevada. Harper has stated his desire to begin courses at CSN in August, earn his GED in the fall, play for the CSN baseball squad in the spring of 2010, and then, assuming everything goes according to plan, get picked number one overall by the Washington Nationals (thus earning more money in his signing bonus than my overpriced college educated behind will make in a lifetime, by the way) next June. Consider that last bit a sneak preview at the upcoming first edition of the 2010 mock…

One little thing from all the articles re: Harper that have broke over the past few days has left me a bit confused. I’m not quite sure how he plans to attend junior college classes beginning in August before trying to get his GED sometime in the fall. That’s the timeline presented in everything I’ve read about Harper’s story, but it doesn’t seem to add up. What am I missing here? Can you really attend junior college classes before getting a high school diploma (or equivalency)?

[UPDATE - After deciding to be proactive for once, I did about two minutes of Googling in an attempt to answer my own questions. It appears that in many states you can enroll at junior colleges (or in some cases four-year colleges) without first obtaining a high school degree. Interesting. It's true what they say, you really do learn something new every day.]

Photo Credit: Palm Goon

Day Three 2009 MLB Draft Thoughts

I was keeping tabs of a handful of players heading into the third day of the draft because, well, that’s what I do. Then it occurred to me in a flash – hey! Why don’t I actually publish some of my thoughts and put them up on that website I run? Clever, right? A quick recap of day three for those of you who made it that far…

RHSP Scott Griggs – The prep arm from California went in the 34th round to Seattle. If you can believe it, I actually had Griggs ranked as the number five overall high school righthander coming into the year, so this is one heck of a fall. The reasons I liked Griggs coming into the eyar (three above-average pitches and potential plus command) are why I think he could re-emerge as a first rounder out of UCLA in 2012.

C Austin Maddox – It’s possible that Maddox could be insurance if the Rays can’t sign 4th rounder Luke Bailey, but it seems almost a certainty that he won’t be needed as a backup plan and will be free to head to Gainesville for three years with the Gators. I’m not sure if it’s been speculating on one way or another yet, but I’ll go ahead and wonder it aloud: any possiblity Maddox, a player with good present skills but little projection left in his body, opts to go the junior college route and re-enter the draft in 2010?

RHSP Scott Swinson – The University of Maryland junior was a deep sleeper coming into the year who must have forgotten to set his alarm clock this spring. The finesse righty will head back to college next year in hopes of improving his draft position (46th rounder of Baltimore).

C Jack Murphy – I thought he had done enough in his first two years at Princeton to warrant a 7/8th round grade, but big league clubs did not agree. Perhaps he made his intentions to return to Princeton known and teams were scared off because of it. Or maybe his subpar junior year against subpar competition was enough to turn teams off. His quick scouting report can be found here, but I included a relevant snippet for those who don’t click through on the links (mostly because I never do):

Murphy is a below the radar 2009 draft prospect who interests me greatly because he seems to have the formula for this year’s draft-eligible college hitters down pat: a couple of above-average tools with some semblance of a track record of success, but no overwhelming physical attributes that would carry him if all other aspects of his game failed, noticeable blips in performance that cause concerns about future production, and an overall lack of polish…

…Final verdict on Jack Murphy – worth a flier in round ten or later because he has the upside of a good big league offensive-minded backup catcher

Murphy could be re-establish himself as a top ten round pick with a big senior year, assuming he heads back to Jersey to grab that Ivy League school diploma.

RHSP Chris Jenkins and RHSP Ethan Carter – Unless I’m missing something, both Jenkins and Carter went undrafted. I find this stunning for many reasons, but I won’t jump to crazy conclusions because I’m sure there is a logical explanation (signability, probably) that explains it all away. I’d love to hear it. I had these two players back-to-back (13th and 14th, I believe) in my preseason rankings and noted their how similar they were at the time:

Carter

Eerily similar stuff Jenkins, but his classic big-bodied pitcher’s frame (6-5, 205) gives him the edge in projectability. Truth be told, his stuff is probably a tick better across the board than [Jordan] Cooper’s (Ed. Note: Cooper was a 17th round pick of the Pirates and ranked just behind Carter on my preseason list) – slightly better present fastball heat, more advanced and varied breaking stuff, and a real changeup. Carter has a chance to fly up this list with a good spring, something that is easy to envision this big righty with sterling makeup doing.

Jenkins

There is plenty to like about Chris Jenkins, namely a heavy fastball that touches 94 MPH and sits in the low 90s, a potential low 80s MPH power slider, a gigantic frame (6-7, 235), and interest from schools like Stanford and Duke. There is also plenty to dislike about Chris Jenkins, namely his spotty command, and high effort delivery. Jenkins’ raw potential is undeniable, but he is a long way away from unlocking it. I know I previously compared Ethan Carter to Jordan Cooper, but perhaps the better comparison is between the two big righties, Carter and Jenkins. Carter has a touch more polish at present, but very few pitchers, Carter included, stack up with Jenkins when it comes to upside.

Was I totally off the mark? Or is something far more nefarious at play? What say you, Google? It appears that Carter is a strong enough commit to South Carolina that he is already enrolled in Summer II classes. Jenkins is going to Stanford, a fact that teams knew about heading into the draft and a perfect explanation why teams would stay away. That explains that. Thanks, Google!

LHSP Chris Manno – The junior from Duke went in the 38th round to Washington. Underrated collegiate performer with good enough stuff to get out big league hitters. I think he could go back to school and turn himself into a top 10 round pick in 2010.

OF Tarran Senay (Pennsylvania) – Like Manno, another 38th round pick. Unlike Manno, Senay is a high school player who is rumored to be about a 50/50 shot to sign. If he doesn’t, he’ll take his high-contact lefthanded approach to NC State.

C Miles Hamblin – How in the world did Miles Hamblin (Howard JC) go undrafted?

RHRP Kyle Thebeau  - Another shocker. The Texas A&M senior was a 9th round pick as a junior, but somehow failed to get drafted at all in 2009. For a player with good enough stuff, improved fastball command, ample big game experience, and a strong finish to the year (as noted by Bryan Smith) to not get drafted at all, well, that’s just weird. Is he hurt?