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Kris Bryant

27 Mar 2013 3:18 PM / 3 Comments on Kris Bryant

I did my first and so far only public big board for the 2013 MLB Draft back in August 2012. I’d love to publish an updated version in the coming weeks, but feel like some annotation to the original ranking might make for some interesting content until the real deal big board is ready to see the light of day. Allow me to begin this look back with a rare display of personal horn tooting. My third overall prospect back in August stands out as one of the growing group of players that I believe Houston would be wise to consider with the first overall pick in June. Kris Bryant has been a damn exciting prospect for as long as I’ve run this site, but the leap he’s taken in 2013 deserves special attention. Before we get to what kind of prospect Bryant is today — spoiler alert: really damn exciting — let’s take a quick look back at his evolution as a prospect over the years.

Bryant was my 39th overall prospect in 2010, sixth among a solid group of third base prospects. The names that ranked ahead of him, in order: Nick Castellanos, Kaleb Cowart, Garin Cecchini, Rob Segedin, and Zack Cox. I prefer Bryant to Castellanos now, but it’s really close. The Tigers prospect gets the slight edge as a hitter, but Bryant wins in power, speed, and potential outfield glove. I’d also take him over Cowart and Cecchini without much consideration for the pro guys, though the likelihood that both stick at third — in theory — is much higher than whatever odds you want to put at Bryant remaining at the hot corner. The less said about Segedin and Cox as pros, the better off we’ll all be. Alright, fine, I can’t keep quiet: I’m still a believer in Segedin, though I admit I thought his transition to pro ball would be a lot smoother thus far. Anyway…

Despite the borderline first round ranking, I wasn’t a huge fan of Bryant back in his initial draft year. It bums me to admit that now, but it’s true. The Troy Glaus comparison was the trendy one at the time. I acknowledged that the comp had some merit, specifically when it came to body type, power upside (40+), and defensive skill set, but preferred to compare Bryant to slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds. Reynolds is a complicated to evaluate player today, so it should be noted that the timing of the comparison makes a difference. Bryant’s initial draft year was after Reynolds’ best season in the bigs. His 2009: .260/.349/.543 with 44 HR and 24 SB. He also may have led the league with a few strikeouts or something (223, but who’s counting?), a factor that was considered in the comp when evaluating Bryant’s longer than you’d like high school swing. That concern has obviously gone by the wayside, thanks in part to some polishing of his swing but mostly because we (fine, me) severely underrated Bryant’s pitch recognition at the time.

I’ve written about Bryant twice this spring, so we’ll do a quick revisit to those quotes while we think of something new to say…

I currently have Kris Bryant listed as an OF/3B, a fairly significant change from the 3B/1B designation he entered school with. I’m totally buying in on Bryant’s athleticism playing in an outfield corner, at least for the first few years of his professional career. His body looks much better now than it ever did in high school — he managed to pull off the stronger yet leaner look that I’ve spent my whole adult life trying to figure out — and his arm is plenty strong enough to play in right field. There remains an above-average chance he sticks as a playable third baseman for the foreseeable future. His bat works anywhere, so determining his long-term defensive home is more of a matter of how great his future can possibly be than whether or not he will make it in pro ball. All of the standard developmental caveats apply, but the range of outcomes for Bryant look like this: upside of star-caliber player at third to steady, contributing bat at first, with something in-between those two if he winds up in right.

…

As I’ve said before, I think Bryant will be a well above-average regular in right field if given the chance. I wasn’t a huge fan of his when he was a senior in high school, but the improvement he’s shown since then — the only thing that looks better than his modified swing is his much sleeker physique — says something about what kind of prospect he is. As a draft prospect, think of him as a safer version of last year’s 39th overall pick, Joey Gallo. His old high school comp of Troy Glaus — one of those so obvious comps that you can’t help but see it — also makes a lot of sense as a pro ceiling. That’s big time.

The big amendment I’d make to those guesses is that I think Bryant has legitimate star upside as a right fielder. The power is real and spectacular, his hit tool is fine, his athleticism is above-average, his speed is average once underway (little bit of a slow starter, but forgivable for a big man), and there are no questions about his work ethic and attitude toward continual improvement on the diamond. Using that as a basic scouting template, it’s time to see if we can figure out a few comps to give us a frame of reference for the type of player Bryant can be.

In all honesty, it doesn’t take a genius to connect the dots between Bryant and another recent big name star college third baseman turned all-star big league outfielder. While his college coach Rich Hill (via Aaron Fitt at Baseball America) dug deep for a Pat Burrell comp (as well as a really intriguing Jayson Werth comp), I prefer the more recent vintage of former Hurricanes star Ryan Braun. Here’s a sampling from Baseball America’s early scouting report on Braun (with obligatory Burrell comp included):

Braun has all five tools. He works counts waiting for a pitch to hit, then has the bat speed-thanks to very quick hands-to hit for excellent power. His approach and power remind some in the organization of another former Miami third baseman, Pat Burrell. Braun is a plus runner, and his average arm strength should be enough for third base.

Swap out Braun’s plus speed and average arm for Bryant’s plus arm and average speed, and you’re really on to something here. Braun and Bryant match up fairly well from a scouting standpoint, but what about the numbers? So glad you asked.

Braun FR 2003: .364/.435/.665 – 28 BB/57 K – 13/17 SB – 242 AB
Bryant FR 2011: .365/.482/.599 33 BB/55 K – 18/21 SB – 197 AB

Very, very similar numbers, especially in terms of plate discipline. Also similar in speed (slight edge to Bryant) and power (edge to Braun).

Braun SO 2004: .335/.439/.606 – 24 BB/34 K – 21/27 SB – 155 AB
Bryant SO 2012: .366/.483/.671 – 39 BB/38 K – 9/12 SB – 213 AB

Bryant with the edge across the board as a hitter, only advantage for Braun coming via speed.

Braun JR 2005: .388/.471/.726 – 33 BB/39 K – 23/30 SB – 219 AB
Bryant JR 2013: .383/.554/.938 – 29 BB/16 K – 5/6 SB – 81 AB

Obviously too early in Bryant’s junior season to make a direct comparison, but things look good for the USD star. Clear advantages in plate discipline and power are mitigated only somewhat by Braun’s persistent speed advantage. It all makes sense when you look back at the early Braun scouting reports citing his plus speed. Braun is still an above-average runner (30+ steals the last two seasons) whose speed plays up thanks to savvy base running instincts. I see Bryant’s most likely stolen base totals rivaling those of Glaus, a big man who rumbled to three years of 10 or more from age 23-25 in his athletic prime.

If Braun doesn’t grab you as a comp, I think a second name ought to get your attention: how about fellow NL Central star Matt Holliday? A young Holliday works better in a straight body type comparison to Bryant, and I think Bryant’s statistical upside more closely mirrors what Holliday has done as a pro. Here’s BA on Holliday back in the day:

Strengths: Holliday’s ticket to the big leagues will be his bat. The ball jumps off it and he has legitimate power. Having grown up in an athletic family, he has maturity not normally found in a young player. He has four-tool potential, coming up a bit short in the speed category. Weaknesses: Holliday has to work on his quickness and lateral movement if he wants to become a big league third baseman. If not, first base or possibly left field could be his ticket. Giving up football should allow his body to loosen up, and could lead to the quickness scouts haven’t seen.

Braun, Holliday, or “I hate comps and I think your* a hack for using them!!!,” my basic point remains the same: we’re talking rarefied air with Bryant as a hitting prospect. Power, patience, and enough hit tool/speed/athleticism that you don’t worry too much about his aging curve and “old player skill set.” The aforementioned speed, athleticism, and plus arm strength should make him at least average in right field in time, though I suspect he’ll be better than that before long. For reference’s sake, going solely off similar players in Baseball America’s top 100, I’d put Bryant behind Oscar Taveras and Xander Bogaerts, comfortably ahead of Oswaldo Arcia (to be fair, even making this comp is a stretch as Arcia is probably the most dissimilar player to Bryant that I chose), a tick ahead of Courtney Hawkins, and right at the same level as Wil Myers, Nick Castellanos, and Jorge Soler. I think the total package is worthy of serious consideration at 1-1.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: SEC

25 Mar 2013 3:49 PM / Leave a comment

Why would I want to be signed out in the middle of typing up a post? I hate WordPress.

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

Mississippi JR C Stuart Turner
LSU JR C Tyler Ross
Vanderbilt JR C Spencer Navin
Auburn JR C Blake Austin
Missouri JR C Dylan Kelly
Georgia SR C Brett DeLoach
Mississippi State SR C Mitch Slauter
Arkansas JR C Jake Wise
Mississippi JR C Will Allen
Alabama JR C Wade Wass
South Carolina SR C Dante Rosenberg
South Carolina rSO C Patrick Harrington
Tennessee JR C Ethan Bennett
Texas A&M JR C Troy Stein
Georgia JR C Brandon Stephens
Missouri SR C Scott Sommerfeld
Mississippi State SR C Nick Ammirati

I’ve done enough of these to know that this is an unusually difficult position group to sort out. Turner has emerged as the leader of the pack on the strength of his power upside, high baseball IQ, athleticism, and outstanding defensive skills. I thought I liked him a lot last year when he was at LSU-Eunice until I saw I had him down as the 51st best college catching prospect in the country. That’s actually not as low as it sounds – he’s in good company if you look back at the actual list – but you can take it to the bank that he won’t be anywhere near that low in 2013. Turner’s power and defense combination is enticing, but the latter should be no big surprise in the context of the SEC in 2013. Above-average or better defense behind the plate is the norm in the conference this year. You can rank Navin, Kelly, Slauter, Wise, and Rosenberg any way you desire in terms of overall package, but the fact that each will give you pro-caliber defense from the first day after signing contracts on is undeniable.

Ross is the position’s, and quite possibly conference’s, biggest enigma. I remember first taking a liking to Ross as a high school prospect because of the promise he had shown with the bat. After his freshman year at LSU, all the positive chatter surrounding his prospect stock was about his much improved defensive ability. His maintained those defensive gains through his sophomore season while also showing enough with the bat (.303/.369/.395 with an impressive 23 BB/22 K ratio in 185 AB) to have many projecting a breakout junior campaign. It’s obviously still quite early, but the initial returns aren’t exactly promising. Ross is still talented enough to warrant a high-level follow, but his status as a potential first round sleeper and top college catching prospect can be considered kaput. If Wade Wass didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. If/when he ever gets back on the field for some consistent at bats, he’s one to watch as a possible draft riser.

1B

Vanderbilt JR 1B Conrad Gregor
Florida SR 1B Vickash Ramjit
Auburn SR 1B Garrett Cooper
South Carolina rJR 1B Brison Celek
Arkansas rSO 1B Eric Fisher
Alabama JR 1B Austen Smith
Tennessee JR 1B Scott Price
Mississippi State SR 1B Trey Porter
Missouri JR 1B Michael McGraw
Missouri SR 1B Gavin Stark

Conrad Gregor’s early season power outage obviously doesn’t concern me enough to knock him off his perch atop this particular list. Like many young hitters, Gregor can get himself into trouble chasing bad balls, but what separates him from the field is his exemplary bat speed and pitch recognition skills. Those skills should help him remain a legitimate prospect as a pro, especially if a club views him as a viable defender in an outfield corner. I’m sure it goes without saying at this point, but Gregor’s plate discipline (more walks than strikeouts all three years at Vandy) make him a personal favorite. Another favorite is Ramjit, an underrated player who combines strength, size, power, athleticism, and defense to create an interesting overall package. He’s also either a badass or a bully, depending on the source, so you can add whatever descriptive adjective – I like “fiery” — of your choosing to the mix. Cooper has a nice approach, intriguing size (6-6, 225 pounds), and impressive defensive chops. If there’s such a thing as a sleeper on a list like this, he’s my pick.

Nice things have been said about Celek and Fisher, but both seem like long shots to contribute much if anything in the pros. That should tell you all you need to know about the rest of the list, though it is worth noting that Scott Price has a surprisingly strong backing from those who see him play often. If Cooper was the original sleeper on this list, Price is the Rip Van Winkle.

2B

Kentucky JR 2B JT Riddle
Georgia SR 2B Kyle Farmer
Kentucky JR 2B Paul McConkey
Texas A&M JR 2B Charlie Curl
South Carolina SR 2B Chase Vergason
Alabama SR 2B Kenny Roberts
Arkansas SR 2B Jacob Mahan
Mississippi State JR 2B Brett Pirtle
Mississippi JR 2B Lance Wilson
LSU SR 2B Casey Yocom
Missouri JR 2B Kendal Keeton
Kentucky JR 2B Matt Reida
Tennessee JR 2B Taylor Smart
Missouri JR 2B Dillon Everett

I really, really like JT Riddle. Since stepping on campus, all he’s done is hit. I’m not sure I’m totally on board with this comp, but a scout friend said that he looks at Riddle and sees the kind of player that JaCoby Jones is supposed to be. Like Jones, Riddle is a really good athlete whom scouts are divided on when it comes to long-term defensive positioning (2B, SS, 3B, CF all in the running). As with Jones, I’m not sure where Riddle eventually winds up, but I do see him as a potentially valuable big league contributor in some capacity. Strong hit tool + mature approach + enough pop/speed + strong arm = good prospect. Math!

Farmer could be a utility infielder (2B/3B/SS) if all goes well. McConkey has some talent, but his swing at everything approach is less than ideal. The fact he can also play a solid 3B helps his cause. Curl looks the part, but whether or not he can actually hit remains an open discussion. As much as I appreciate his defensive versatility and general lunch pail approach to the game, I think we’ll have another college season after this one to keep the conversation going.

Notice that a trio of seniors (Vergason, Roberts, Mahan) hold down the beginning of the end of his year’s rankings. I would expect to see that next year as well, as some of the juniors near the bottom of list move up to the middle due to yearly prospect growth and attrition. That’s sort of the way college second base prospecting works.

3B

Arkansas JR 3B Dominic Ficociello
Auburn JR 3B Damek Tomscha
Mississippi JR 3B Preston Overbey
Florida rSO 3B Zack Powers
LSU JR 3B Christian Ibarra
Mississippi SR 3B Andrew Mistone
South Carolina SR 3B LB Dantzler
Missouri JR 3B Shane Segovia
Georgia SR 3B Curt Powell
Alabama SR 3B Brett Booth
Mississippi State JR 3B Daryl Norris
South Carolina JR 3B Erik Payne

We’d obviously know a good bit more about Ficociello if he could get on the field a little bit more, but his slow start to the 2013 season doesn’t obfuscate the notes accrued on him through his first two college years. It also doesn’t discredit the fine work he put in as a high school prospect: he was in the back of my 2010 top 50, directly ahead of impressive fellows Taijuan Walker and Zach Lee. I don’t view Ficociello as an elite 2013 draft prospect nor does he give off the appearance of a sure-fire future big league regular, but the tools he possesses and the growth he’s shown both give me a good feeling about his future. The first thing that stands out when watching Ficociello from a physical standpoint are his seemingly impossibly quick hands. Forgetting the draft writing thing for a second and speaking solely as a fan of the game, I’d submit that watching Ficociello swing a bat is an experience well worth checking out if at all possible. If his bat isn’t the quickest in the college game, then he’s certainly on the short list. The fair follow-up question, and one I’m in no way qualified to answer, is where is the power production? Ficociello has the frame (6-4, 185 pounds) to put on a little bit more heft, so you’d be selecting him early with the hope that blindingly quick wrists + increased physical strength = long-term power production. Opinions on his defense area all over the place. I’ve been told he’s “maybe a third basemen, likely a first basemen” and “he’s good enough at third that you wonder if he can play some second or short if asked.” He does have experience shifting around the infield; any way you look at that, that’s a plus. Again, I’m not a scout, but what I’ve seen firsthand of his defense at third has been encouraging. Count me in as somebody who likes his hit tool, loves his worth ethic (there’s no true measure for such a thing, but note the improvement in his BB/K numbers from his freshman to sophomore seasons – I was told that was all a major goal of Ficociello’s last year that he worked like crazy at improving), remains intrigued though cautiously so about his power upside, and believes his defense should be no worse than average at third, with the chance to be much better than that and/or solid at all four infield spots.

Since I wrote an entire post’s worth of words on Ficociello, I’ll do my best to be brief with some of the other third base names to know. Tomscha has been a favorite dating back to his high school days, especially after the Phillies drafted him with their last pick in 2010. There’s some question as to how much he’ll ever hit, but his secondary skills — power and patience — are strong, and his defense, athleticism, and arm strength are all top notch. It’s also nice that those last two things — athleticism and arm strength for those with short memories — could help him on the mound if that’s the direction his career eventually takes. Preston Overbey has always had the big-time tools that draw scouts in, but the maddeningly hacktastic approach that turns them off. He’d still be an interesting tools gamble in the mid-rounds, especially if the drafting team moves him to an outfield corner and tells him to just worry about hitting. I can’t quite put my finger on why I like Zack Powers so much, but I do. What he lacks in a carrying tool he makes up for with a steady all-around skill set. Ibarra’s defense is what initially drew me to him, but his strong performance at the plate so far for LSU is cause for more investigation as to what kind of stick he really has. After the top five we get a long run of potential late-round senior signs. Mistone (can also play 2B), Dantzler (power), and Segovia (exceptional defense) stand out as particularly intriguing.

SS

Mississippi State JR SS Adam Frazier
Vanderbilt rSO SS Joel McKeithan
Texas A&M SR SS Mikey Reynolds
Mississippi JR SS Austin Anderson
Auburn JR SS Dan Glevenyak
Florida SR SS Cody Dent

Not the toolsiest group of shortstop prospects you’ll come across, but a damn fine collection of ballplayers. Frazier typifies this better than anybody: if you like him — like I obviously do — then you like the approach first and foremost, but acknowledge that he may be stretched to hit for enough pop or show off enough athleticism and arm to prevent a move to second base. If he winds up as a poor man’s Nolan Fontana, another player I liked a lot, then you’ve at least got a potential backup big league middle infielder. Reynolds gives you a similar offensive package — maybe a tick better speed with less plate discipline — but a better chance to stay at shortstop in the pros. Anderson’s impressive start to the season has earned him a Tyler Smith (Oregon State) comp that I like a lot.

The one exception to the “low tools, high grit” (I couldn’t think of a better word than grit here and I hate myself for using it, but I think it gives you some idea what I mean when I use it so I’m keeping it) list is Joel McKeithan. Tools aren’t a worry with McKeithan: he can run, field, and hit for power better than any shortstop prospect in the conference. His issue has, and continues to be, staying on the field long enough to show off his ability. I’ve been a big McKeithan fan for a long time, but even I’m beginning to wonder if we’ll ever get the chance to see him at his best. Cody Dent plays college baseball for Florida. I’m not 100% sure what compelled me to include him on a prospect list. That’s about all I’m willing to say about him as a player. As always, no matter how ineffective a player is at this level, it should be noted that every player I’ve written about over the past four years is probably better at baseball than I am at any one singular thing.

OF

Mississippi State JR OF Hunter Renfroe
LSU JR OF Jacoby Jones
Vanderbilt JR OF Tony Kemp
Vanderbilt SR OF Connor Harrell
Vanderbilt SR OF Michael Yastrzemski
LSU rSR OF Raph Rhymes
LSU SR OF Mason Katz
Auburn SR OF Ryan Tella
Arkansas rJR OF Jacob Morris
Florida JR OF Taylor Ratliff
Mississippi SR OF Tanner Mathis
Texas A&M JR OF Krey Bratsen
Mississippi State JR OF CT Bradford
South Carolina JR OF Graham Saiko
Mississippi State rSO OF Demarcus Henderson
Auburn SR OF Cullen Wacker
Kentucky SR OF Zac Zellers
Missouri SR OF Dane Opel
Texas A&M SR OF Brandon Wood
Auburn JR OF Jay Gonzalez
Arkansas SR OF Matt Vinson
Texas A&M JR OF Jace Statum
Kentucky JR OF Lucas Witt
Mississippi SO OF Will Jamison
Georgia JR OF Conor Welton
Alabama SR OF Cameron Carlisle
Missouri SR OF Brannon Champagne
LSU SR OF Alex Edward
Vanderbilt rSR OF Jack Lupo
Auburn JR OF Hunter Kelley
LSU JR OF Sean McMullen
Mississippi State JR OF Derrick Armstrong
Alabama SR OF Andrew Miller

I just lost about 2,000 words breaking down the five potential first round SEC pitching prospects. Had scout quotes, stuff breakdowns, and statistical analysis. Pardon the language, but I fucking hate WordPress. There is clear separation with the top three, but I think Wahl and Crawford are interchangeable at four/five.

I also lost everything on the outfielders including a full breakdown of Renfroe v Jones. Hours of work gone in an instant.

P

Arkansas JR RHP Ryne Stanek
LSU JR RHP Ryan Eades
Vanderbilt JR LHP Kevin Ziomek
Mississippi JR RHP Bobby Wahl
Florida JR RHP Jonathon Crawford
Florida JR RHP Karsten Whitson
Mississippi JR RHP Mike Mayers
Arkansas JR RHP Barrett Astin
Arkansas JR RHP Colby Suggs
Kentucky JR LHP Corey Littrell
Florida JR LHP Daniel Gibson
Kentucky JR RHP Trevor Gott
Florida JR RHP Keenan Kish
Florida SO RHP John Magliozzi
Tennessee JR RHP Nick Williams
LSU JR RHP Nick Rumbelow
Mississippi State JR RHP Evan Mitchell
Auburn JR RHP Dillon Ortman
LSU JR RHP Will LaMarche
Vanderbilt JR RHP TJ Pecoraro
South Carolina JR RHP Forrest Koumas
Texas A&M SR RHP Kyle Martin
Missouri SR RHP Eric Anderson
LSU SR RHP Joey Bourgeois
LSU SO LHP Cody Glenn
Georgia SO RHP Luke Crumley
Tennessee SR RHP Zack Godley
LSU JR RHP Kurt McCune
Texas A&M rJR RHP Jason Jester
LSU JR RHP Joe Broussard
South Carolina SR LHP Tyler Webb
Mississippi rSO RHP Scott Weathersby
Mississippi JR RHP Aaron Greenwood
Mississippi SR RHP Brett Huber
Mississippi State SR RHP Kendall Graveman
Missouri JR LHP Rob Zastrynzny
Texas A&M rJR RHP Parker Ray
South Carolina SR LHP Nolan Belcher
Missouri rSO RHP Ryan Yuengel
Arkansas rSR LHP Trent Daniel
LSU SR LHP Chris Cotton
South Carolina SR RHP Colby Holmes
Georgia rJR LHP Patrick Boling
Mississippi rSR RHP Tanner Bailey
Arkansas SR LHP Randall Fant
Kentucky SR LHP Jerad Grundy
Auburn JR LHP Conner Kendrick
Vanderbilt JR LHP Steven Rice
Georgia SR LHP Blake Dieterich
Mississippi State rJR RHP Ben Bracewell
Texas A&M rJR RHP Rafael Pineda
LSU SR LHP Brett Bonvillain
Alabama SR RHP Trey Pilkington
Texas A&M rSO LHP Nathan Sorenson
Kentucky SR RHP Walter Wijas
Alabama rSO RHP Cary Baxter
Auburn JR LHP Will Kendall
Missouri JR RHP Keeton Steele
South Carolina SR LHP Adam Westmoreland
Georgia SR RHP Bryan Benzor
Mississippi State SR LHP Luis Pollorena
Vanderbilt rJR LHP Keenan Kolinsky
Texas A&M JR RHP Patrick Michon
Missouri rJR LHP Jake Walsh
Arkansas JR RHP Brandon Moore
Auburn JR RHP Jay Wade
Mississippi State rJR LHP Chad Girodo
Arkansas SR LHP Cade Lynch
Alabama rJR LHP Taylor Wolfe
Auburn JR LHP Michael O’Neal
Alabama SR RHP Tucker Hawley
Alabama SR RHP Charley Sullivan
Kentucky SO RHP Taylor Martin
Mississippi rSO RHP Casey Greene
South Carolina rSO RHP Drake Thomason
Arkansas JR RHP Jackson Lowery
Auburn JR RHP Terrance Dedrick

Little March Madness Fun: “First Round” Edition 2.0

20 Mar 2013 6:38 PM / Leave a comment

The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds don’t have a great deal of 2013 draft prospects of note. I still hold out hope that rJR RHP Justin Topa will regain his pre-injury form and continue on the path towards becoming a legitimate draft prospect worth talking about. His fastball, once regularly in the low-90s and peaking as high as 95, has been a below-average pitch to start this season. Same could be said for his excellent changeup and promising breaking ball. Even with the risk he never returns as the Topa of old, he’s still the best Brooklyn has to offer in 2013. The closest player to Topa as a prospect is the underrated JR RHP Kevin Needham. Needham currently sees more time in the outfield, but his future is on the mound, where he has the chance to make some headway as a reliever. Other pitchers to keep on eye on: SR RHP Chris Franzese and SR LHP Matt McCormick. Neither look like prospects in a real sense, and McCormick is already slated to miss the 2013 season with a labrum injury, but both get included in the interest of an obsession towards completion. Bats to watch include JR SS John Ziznewski, JR OF Pete Leonello, and SR OF Mike Garcia. The juniors are the more likely — still long shots — to get drafted, but will both surely have to wait a year to get the chance to sign.

I don’t like writing about James Madison because it reminds me of my once upon a time crazy aggressive ranking of Johnny Bladel. I won’t even look up how high I once had him ranked, but trust me when I say it was too damn high. Worst part about all this is that I still like Bladel as a prospect far more than anybody ought to. Through all the ups and downs his plate discipline has remained a strength. He also remains a good runner with gap power, a strong arm, and enough range to stick up the middle. If he can continue to show his freshman year pop, he’s a viable draft prospect once again. Validation!

After Bladel there are plenty of other intriguing bats scattered across the JMU roster. rJR OF/1B Matt Tenaglia has been extremely productive. SR OF Cole McInturff has a nice mix of pop, CF range, speed, and cool name. SR 2B/SS Casey Goss is another player with nice pop and a steady glove who has put up big early season numbers. SR 2B/C Brad Shaban, JR 3B Ty McFarland, and JR INF Conner Brown have all hit well so far while SR OF Colby Roberts and JR C Nick Merullo have gotten off to slower starts.

I like La Salle SR RHP Pat Christensen as a potential sinker/slider reliever at the next level. rJR LHP Shawn O’Neill’s rocky early season start is not a great reflection on his impressive potential three pitch mix. SR LHP Ryan Donohue, JR LHP Dominic Sgroi, and rSO RHP Mike McLeod have all put up solid performances in the past.

My two favorite bats coming into the year for La Salle were SR 3B Dan Klem and JR OF George Smith. The two have gone different directions in the early going — Klem up, Smith down — but I reserve the right to judge them until I get a chance to see them in person a few times over the next few weeks.

There’s no baseball at Boise State, but there is an excellent high school prospect with a Boise connection. 3B Joseph Martarano (Fruitland HS, Idaho) is a high school football star committed to Boise State in the fall. I don’t think he’ll wind up there if/when he gets drafted where his talent warrants in June. I like the athletic, two sport third base prospect archetype as much as just about any. There’s obviously a raw edge to his game, especially in terms of pitch recognition, but in my quick looks I’ve come away impressed with his overall baseball skill level. Besides his obvious athleticism, Martarano stands out for his exciting raw power. His physical strength is a large part of what makes his power work, but it is also his quick bat and his “violent in a good way” swing. Martarano is a risky prospect with easy to see bust potential, but the upside is tantalizing enough to get him drafted early enough that I think a team buys him out of his football commitment.

Little March Madness Fun: “First Round” Edition

19 Mar 2013 7:48 PM / 3 Comments on Little March Madness Fun: “First Round” Edition

I’ve been working on the darn SEC draft preview piece off and on for over a week now, and I’m happy to say that it’s finally close to completion. In the meantime, I thought we’d have a little fun with the NCAA college basketball tournament getting started tonight. Quick 2013 MLB Draft prospect previews of the four teams featured in tonight’s play-in — excuse me, “first round” — games.

North Carolina A&T‘s 2013 prospect strength comes in the way of a trio of seniors: 1B Kelvin Freeman, Andre McKoy, and Dairio Little. Of the three, only Freeman is holding up his end of the prospect bargain so far this season. He’s got a chance to go late as an athletic power-hitting first baseman with pro size (6-4, 235 pounds) and a rapidly improving feel for hitting. The best 2013 prospect on the team is JR 2B/SS Luke Tendler. Tendler has hit from his first day on campus (.347/.370/.563 in 2011, .285/.323/.466 in 2012) and seems to have really hit his stride in 2013 (.406/.449/.719 in 64 AB so far). He’s a good athlete with sneaky pop, decent speed, and enough defensive skill to stick up the middle in the pros. It’s a long shot for a few reasons, but I could see him getting into the single-digit rounds if he keeps mashing at his current rate. I won’t pretend to know much about SR LHP Brent Moore, but his strong start to the year deserves a quick shoutout.

Liberty has some pretty darn good ballplayers on their roster. The best of the bunch for me is a player who I’m sure is no doubt excited to be one of my all-caps FAVORITE’s for the upcoming draft class, none other than Mr. Ryan Cordell. Cordell is an above-average runner (great baseball instincts may bump that up to plus on the base paths) with an above-average arm, impressive athleticism (he can play any outfield spot, 1B, and has dabbled on the mound with an upper-80s FB in the past), bat speed to spare, and, last but not least, a sturdy pro build (6-3, 200 pounds). What I like most about Cordell is that he’s an even better player than the sum of his parts suggests. Cordell is joined by fellow interesting position players such as JR C Danny Grauer (good size, plus arm strength, and a patient approach, though I still think I like him best on the mound), SR 2B Bryan Aanderud (another personal favorite — though not quite a FAVORITE — on the strength of a quality hit tool and steady defense, not to mention that he’d be the first player in the all-time MLB alphabet if he ever makes the big leagues), and SR 3B Dalton Sype (down year so far, but a nice college bat otherwise).

Aanderud’s hot start (.392/.495/.459 with 15 BB/3 K in 74 AB) bears mentioning, though it should be acknowledged that a big senior season fits in nicely with the type of productive hitter he’s shown himself to be (.364/.467/.450 with 32 BB/18 K in 220 AB last year). Those are numbers you have to take notice of, no matter the context. Aanderud is a really strong college player who deserves a shot in the pros. A bat that I know next to nothing about that caught my eye through numbers only is SR C Trey Wimmer. Hitting .392/.446/.649 gets you on my map, even if it is only through 74 AB.

Liberty’s pitching staff has as many as four arms that could be selected in this year’s draft. SR RHPs Brooks Roy and Matt Marsh, along with rJR RHP Josh Richardson, all have enough in the way of stuff and track record to warrant consideration in June. Roy has arguably the best offspeed pitch of the trio (change), Marsh has the best size (6-3, 190 pounds…both Roy and Richardson are sub 6-0), and Richardson has the best arm strength (93 peak) and athleticism (former middle infielder). Roy may be a little too “smoke and mirrors” for pro scouts, but I think Marsh (14 K/1 BB in 9.2 IP) and Richardson (13 K/4 BB in 10.1 IP) could be legitimate late round selections. The fourth pitcher of interest is SR RHP Kody Young, a big fella (6-5, 230 pounds) with decent stuff — anybody who throws a passable or better forkball is alright by me — who hasn’t pitched in 2013 as of yet.

Saint Mary‘s has a pair of southpaw pitchers that have the stuff to get drafted if all keeps going to plan. JR LHP Jordan Mills has the requisite three pitch mix to get a chance starting in the rotation in professional ball. His fastball is a little short at times (85-88 mostly, can have days where it is closer to 88-92), but the movement he generates on the pitch makes it a consistent above-average offering. Mills also mixes in a pair of average or better offspeed pitches in his upper-70s change and a drastically improved slider. Some funk in his delivery and the advantage of extension (he’s 6-6, 210 pounds) helps his stuff play up across the board. Mills is a good pitching prospect who has seemingly taken the leap — from K/9 ratios in the 6.00’s his first two years to 9.00+ in the early going this year — in his draft year. A notch below Mills is fellow JR LHP Ben Griset. From fastball velocity to the solid breaking ball/changeup combo, Griset has similar stuff to Mills across the board. What he lacks is a) Mills’ size (Griset is 6-0, 185 pounds), b) Mills’ ability to cut, sink, and run the fastball, and c) Mills’ offspeed refinement, though you could argue that his breaking ball is closer to Mills’ than his changeup currently is. It is encouraging that Griset has made a similar performance leap in 2013: freshman year (5.70 K/9), sophomore year (7.75 K/9), early in junior year (9.72 K/9). SR RHP Patrick Keane, JR RHP Thomas Cortese, and JR LHP Ryan Brockett make up the rest of the interesting pitching names to know for 2013 on the Saint Mary’s staff. Brockett (a starter) and Keane (a reliever) have thrown particularly well so far in the early going.

The two 2013 position players that I’ve gotten some positive feedback on are SR OFs Brenden Kalfus and Cole Norton. Kalfus has been the better of the two in the early going, hitting .292/.444/.313 (13 BB/7 K), but it is hard to see either as legitimate pro prospects when it is all said and done.

Middle Tennessee State‘s best shot to see somebody drafted in the 2013 MLB Draft can be found on their pitching staff. SR RHP Hunter Adkins has decent stuff and good size (6-4, 200 pounds), but has never put up the big numbers many expected for him at the start. Same could be said about SR RHP Daniel Palo, another big boy (6-4, 250 pounds) who has underwhelmed despite the athleticism and stuff (mid-90s peak FB, average or better CB) to dominate his level. SR LHP Jordan Cooper has a similar strong FB/CB combo, and, surprise surprise, a similar track record of less than stunning performances. Others on the mound to watch are SR LHP Joey McClung (decent arm despite 5-9, 180 pound frame), SR RHP Jonathan Sisco (out for 2013 season due to labrum surgery), JR LHP Zac Curtis (another short pitcher, but with better all-around stuff), and JR RHP Paul Mittura (interesting sinker/slider guy). It is doubtful any of this group get drafted, but you never know.

SR 2B Johnny Thomas, a transfer from New Orleans, has been his usual steady self. JR 3B Hank LaRue has been a little bit less than that. The entire Middle Tennessee outfield can be considered prospects, if we define the term loosely. JR OF Jake Ellison has some power but not much else, fellow power bat JR OF Trent Miller’s in the midst of an early season slump (slugged close to .600 last year, sitting below .300 so far this year), and JR OF Ryan Stephens, coming off a disappointing sophomore season, has hit fairly well so far in 2013. Again, I wouldn’t put money on any of the three getting any draft consideration this year, but all three can at least be productive college bats when things are going right.

Quick Top 5’s: 2013 MLB Draft High School Prospect Rankings

12 Mar 2013 3:34 PM / 8 Comments on Quick Top 5’s: 2013 MLB Draft High School Prospect Rankings

What began as a head-to-head matchup piece between the top two high school prospects at each position (inspired by today’s Clint Frazier/Austin Meadows showdown) has turned into a really quick top five at each spot. Long-time readers of the site know how much it pains me to cut rankings off at such a low number, but, as a gigantic NFL Draft fan, I figure going top five is good enough for the great Mike Mayock, so a nobody like me on a nobody site like this can get away with it too. Let’s do this.

1. C Reese McGuire (Kentwood HS, Washington)

2. C Jonathan Denney (Yukon HS, Oklahoma)

3. C Nick Ciuffo (Lexington HS, South Carolina)

4. C Chris Okey (Eustis HS, Florida)

5. C Brian Navarreto (Arlington County Day HS, Florida)

Denney has narrowed the gap on McGuire for many (some have Denney ahead), but I still like the athleticism, approach, and swing of the kid from Kentwood. Of course, I’d be thrilled with either at pick 16, the very same spot my hometown team just so happens to be picking this year. I think the top four prep catchers have begun to separate themselves from the pack a bit, but the fifth spot is wide open. I know I’m the millionth person to say this, but, damn, what a strong group of high school catchers.

1. 1B Dominic Smith (Serra HS, California)

2. 1B Nick Longhi (Venice HS, Florida)

3. 1B Rowdy Tellez (Elk Grove HS, California)

4. 1B Zack Collins (American Heritage HS, Florida)

5. 1B Bryce Harman (Lloyd C. Bird HS, Virginia)

As much as I respect players 2-5 on this list, I think it is fair to say that the high school first base hierarchy is Dominic Smith and everybody else. Like the catchers, I believe in the top four holding steady for the foreseeable future with the fifth and final spot being wide open.

1. 2B Anfernee Grier (Russell County HS, Alabama)

2. 2B Christian Arroyo (Hernando HS, Florida)

3. 2B Dalton Dulin (Memphis University HS, Tennessee)

4. 2B Nate Mondou (Charles Wright Academy, Washington)

5. 2B Errol Robinson: (St. John’s College HS, Maryland)

Ranking high school second basemen is a a fool’s game, but I’m a fool so here we go. Grier is the best right now by a pretty fair margin. Above-average is the word of the day with his tools: above-average arm, above-average power upside, above-average hit tool, above-average speed. The only question on Grier for me is whether or not he’ll the chance to stay at 2B or if a team decides they like his bat/speed enough to move him right to CF as a pro. The other four names aren’t known for their big tools, but rather for their well-earned reputations as hard workers, steady gloves, and pesky hitters who do the little things that help them rise above certain physical limitations.

1. 3B Cavan Biggio (St. Thomas HS, Texas)

2. 3B Travis Demeritte (Winder Barrow HS, Georgia)

3. 3B Wesley Jones (Redan HS, Georgia)

4. 3B Jan Hernandez (Carlos Beltran Academy, Puerto Rico)

5. 3B Ryan McMahon (Mater Dei HS, California)

This was the most difficult position to pare down to five names by a long shot. I literally began the process with a dozen players deserving of some time in the top five spotlight. Biggio is the most well-rounded, Demeritte’s defense is special, and Jones can look great or pedestrian on any given day. A friend called Hernandez a less exciting version of Javier Baez, whatever that means. McMahon has been a long-time favorite, as so often happens with these Mater Dei guys. It’s a cop-out to say this about the fifth ranked player on a list, but it would be no surprise if McMahon winds up as the best long-term pro. He’s got a great balance of upside and present skill.

1. SS Oscar Mercado (Gaither HS, Florida)

2. SS JP Crawford (Lakewood HS, California)

3. SS Andy McGuire (James Madison HS, Virginia)

4. SS Connor Heady (North Oldham HS, Kentucky)

5. SS Chris Rivera (El Dorado HS, California)

I’m more confused about Mercado than I am any other 2013 high school position player. I actually was thinking about him last night in the context of straight baseball fandom, and not the guy who runs a draft website. Would I want my team to draft him? If so, how high would I be comfortable taking him? As mentioned a few times already, the Phillies, picking 16th, are my team of choice. If they used pick 16 on Mercado, how would I feel? This may be a silly barometer to use on a wannabe-professional sounding site like this, but it’s hard to hide the fact that I’m always going to be a baseball fan first, and an always wrong draft writer second. I’d be quite pleased with Mercado at 16 at this point. That in and of itself is high praise, I think. This whole internal debate also got me thinking about the man ranked just one spot below Mercado, JP Crawford. If Crawford was the pick at 16, I’d be thrilled. I still see Mercado as a potential above-average regular at shortstop down the line: the tools are all present, with the exception of power/physicality, and I’ve heard from people who have seen him recently that concerns about his effort/attitude/makeup are overblown. Projecting Crawford is almost as difficult, but I think of him as a greater boom/bust type of prospect. If the light bulb goes on, he’s a superstar. If not…

1. OF Austin Meadows (Grayson HS, Georgia)

2. OF Clint Frazier (Loganville HS, Georgia)

3. OF Ryan Boldt (Red Wing HS, Minnesota)

4. OF Justin Williams (Terrebonne HS, Louisiana)

5. OF/LHP Trey Ball (New Castle HS, Indiana)

The whole idea behind this piece was to highlight the forthcoming Meadows vs Frazier head-to-head battle. After starting and stopping a singular piece on the duo for a spell, I came to a realization. This may make me a major chump in the online baseball draft world, but, after thinking about it for much longer than I’d be comfortable admitting, I don’t yet have a strong opinion on Meadows vs Frazier. It’s the ultimate cop-out, but I like both guys a lot. The narrative for the comparison seems to be the toolsy yet raw Meadows (upside!) vs the polished, high-level hitting ability of Frazier (relative safety). Like most media-driven story lines — I used “media” quite loosely here — there is some degree of truth to the labels put upon both players. Meadows does have raw power, athleticism, foot speed, and a throwing arm that add up to one of the draft’s highest ceiling overall talents. Frazier’s swing is a thing of beauty, and he does consistently make loud contact with the meatiest part of the barrel. However, the quick and dirty player archetypes assigned to both fails to address how well-rounded each outfielder is as a prospect. Meadows pitch recognition and patience at the plate is unusually impressive for a young (quick note: he’s a few months younger than Frazier, which matters) hitter. Frazier’s physical gifts, most notably his plus-plus arm, well above-average speed underway, and massive power upside (seriously, Frazier’s hit some of the longest pop-ups I’ve ever recorded, maybe the longest) stack up with any other player in this or any high school class.

As for the rest: Boldt strikes me as somewhat similar to David Dahl, so we’ll have to wait and see if he enjoys any of the same late-spring draft helium; the rawness in Williams’ game scares some away, but it’s exactly what draws me to him; I’m not anti-Ball by any means, but it does send up a little red flag when you realize a) his age relative to his peers in the class, and b) how far he has to go as a hitter. A trio of speedsters (Josh Hart, Terry McClure, Matt McPhearson) would be the next men up.

I don’t normally differentiate between RHP and LHP, but what the heck. I’ll add a little commentary in an hour or so, but I wanted to get something up here now before the big game down in Georgia.

RHP

1. RHP Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X HS, Texas)

2. RHP Jordan Sheffield (Tullahoma HS, Tennessee)

3. RHP Keegan Thompson (Cullman HS, Alabama)

4. RHP Carlos Salazar (Kerman HS, California)

5. RHP Brett Morales (King HS, Florida)

LHP

1. LHP Robert Kaminsky (St. Joseph Regional HS, New Jersey)

2. LHP Ian Clarkin (James Madison HS, California)

3. LHP Matt Krook (Saint Ignatius HS, California):

4. LHP Jake Brentz (Parkway South HS, Missouri)

5. LHP Stephen Gonsalves (Cathedral Catholic HS, California)

Jonathan Gray

11 Mar 2013 12:06 AM / Leave a comment

I wanted to do a piece on “draft risers,” despite the fact that I don’t really believe in the idea of moving guys up or down too much based on junior (or, in rare cases, senior) season successes or failures. There’s obviously a good deal of fluidity in the draft process, but I reject the notion that there are any major college players or well-traveled high school showcase stars that aren’t already firmly planted on the radar of both big league scouting staffs and devoted draft followers alike. That said, it would be silly not to acknowledge that there are prospects that show the incremental improvement that elevates “good” prospects (call them 2-5 round types) to “great” prospects (round 1, earlier the better). Jacksonville’s Chris Anderson is the poster boy for this type of mover, but his day in the sun on this site will come soon enough. The real reason why I wanted to do a draft riser piece was to write about a name that is now very much in the mix for the first overall pick in the draft, Jonathan Gray from Oklahoma.

Prior to the year, my basic notes on Gray included info on his fastball (88-92, 94/95 peak), slider (low-80s, consistently an above-average pitch that flashed plus), changeup (80-85 straight change that flashed plus), and a burgeoning cutter (88-90, very similar action to his slider). Needless to say, he was a very good prospect. His 2013 scouting dossier has been updated to include a much firmer fastball (94-97 consistently, including a peak of 98-100 and no signs of diminishing velocity late in games), a cut-slider that morphs his two above-average pitches into one major weapon (83-88), and a steady low-80s changeup that remains an average at worst offering. You can see why he’s now considered a strong top ten, potential top five, and, I’ll repeat it again in case anybody missed it, outside contender for a top one kind of draft pick. People don’t say “top one caliber pick” for obvious reasons, but I think it’s funny so I’m keeping it.

The comp for Gray that put everybody on notice in the past was when somebody — I hate that I forget where the comp came from, apologies to the most likely candidates at Baseball America and Perfect Game — compared him to Roger Clemens. Aaron Fitt hinted that Gray’s most recent start reminded him of watching Gerrit Cole as an amateur. A few of the other names that I’ve heard from those who have seen him this year: Max Scherzer (whom Cole was compared to as an amateur), Matt Harvey, Addison Reed, Garrett Richards, and, big gulp, Justin Verlander. I think that gives you a pretty decent spectrum of outcomes to work with: low-end (Reed/Richards), most likely (Harvey/Scherzer), and thank the deity of your choice for reaching a ceiling like this (Verlander/Clemens).

With a few pitchers falling by the wayside in the early going, it’s now looking like a three-horse race for the top spot among pitchers in this year’s draft. Mark Appel (another “draft riser” if you can call such a big name a riser), Sean Manaea, and Jonathan Gray have all jumped out ahead of the cumulative SEC pitching monster of Ryne Stanek, Jonathon Crawford, Bobby Wahl, Ryan Eades, and Kevin Ziomek.

2013 MLB Draft Conference Preview: ACC

8 Mar 2013 12:01 AM / Leave a comment

Imagine a really snappy introduction here. Like something impossibly clever. Funny, too. You’ll be walking around all day thinking about what a snappy, clever, funny introduction you just read on that great baseball draft site. Not only was it a memorable introduction, but it really hooked you. The intro was so good that it got you all excited so that you couldn’t wait to read all the great baseball draft stuff written just centimeters below…and then you finally read the baseball draft stuff and it almost topped — almost, but not quite — topped the introduction. Yeah, imagine that.

Bold = locks to be drafted
Italics = definite maybes
Underlined = possible risers
Plain text = long shots

C

North Carolina JR C Matt Roberts
North Carolina JR C Brian Holberton
Virginia Tech rJR C Chad Morgan
Duke SR C Jeff Kremer
Wake Forest SR C Brett Armour
Florida State rJR C Stephen McGee
Miami SR C Alex San Juan
Boston College JR C Nate LaPointe
Maryland SR C Jack Cleary
Boston College SR C Matt Paré
Maryland rSO C Alex Ramsay
Wake Forest JR C Charlie Morgan
Duke JR C Mike Rosenfeld
Florida State JR C Ladson Montgomery

We’re still waiting on Roberts’ first extended stretch of strong college at bats, so take his ranking atop this list as a testament to projection over production. His teammate Holberton has consistently outhit him, but falls just behind based largely on the unknown — at least to me — that is his catching defense. If his drafting team doesn’t want him to catch full-time, he’ll still have intriguing value as Swiss army knife (C/2B/OF) kind of defensive player. I really thought Chad Morgan would be a player thanks to his big power/big arm combo, but time is quickly running out on him. The respective walk rates of Kremer and McGee make me blush.

1B

Georgia Tech JR 1B Daniel Palka
North Carolina SR 1B Cody Stubbs
Duke rSO 1B Chris Marconcini
Wake Forest rJR 1B Matt Conway
Maryland JR 1B Tim Kiene
Virginia rSR 1B Jared King
Clemson JR 1B Jon McGibbon

Power hitting prospects are often categorized into two basic categories: guys with power and guys who can hit who also happen to have power. That’s far more simplistic than I probably ought to be, but complicated takes time, energy, and skill that a man like me simply does not possess. Anyway, Palka happens to fall into the latter group, a really encouraging thing with respect to his draft stock. He’s a really good hitter first, and a guy with plus-plus power second. I really wish he was quick enough to handle a little bit of RF in the pros, not just because it would do wonders to his value as a player but also because watching him throw is a real pleasure, but I don’t think the projections of Palka to an outfield corner amount to much more than wishcasting. Still a legitimate early-round prospect with starting caliber upside at first, though the pervasive swing-and-miss element to his game remains a worry. I like Palka more than I love him, if that makes sense.

After Palka you’ve got a deep collection of quality college bats that might have a name or two capable of hanging around the minors long enough to someday pop up as a big league bench bat. Stubbs has power, a good glove, and nice size, but also plenty to prove after a disappointing junior season. Marconcini does similar things well while also having something to prove as he continues to bounce back physically from last year’s ACL injury. Matt Conway rounds out the power/glove/size trio. Kiene has the power, but not quite the patience or defensive chops of the others on the list. I have a soft spot for players that exhibit the kind of patience Jared King has shown throughout his career: his junior year line (.306/.457/.503 with 49 BB/37 K and 13/19 SB) makes for a weird statistical profile for a first baseman, and, while weird alone doesn’t make a player a good prospect, it does keep things interesting.

2B

Clemson JR 2B Shane Kennedy
Virginia SR 2B Reed Gragnani
Georgia Tech SR 2B Sam Dove
Georgia Tech JR 2B Mott Hyde
Miami SR 2B Michael Broad
North Carolina State SR 2B Matt Bergquist
Wake Forest SR 2B Mark Rhine
Wake Forest JR 2B Conor Keniry

I keep waiting for a position that will give me a break where I don’t have to write as much, but damn if the ACC isn’t loaded with intriguing prospects to discuss. The smart money is on none of these players ever getting any consistent at bats at the big league level, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a quality pro or two somewhere in the conference. Kennedy is my favorite because of his overall tools package — hit, power, speed are all a hair above the average mark, and he’s a capable glove anywhere you put him in the infield — but Gragnani lurks as a possible contender to the best ACC second base prospect throne. Of course, calling any of these guys “second basemen” does a bit of disservice to their collective defensive potential.

It is the positional versatility of so many of these players — OF Gragnani, OF Dove, SS Hyde, 3B Broad, SS Bergquist, 3B Rhine — that has me believing there might be a future big league utility infielder or two somewhere hidden in the bunch. If nothing else, spending a pick on one of these players will give you a useful, versatile minor league contributor. That may not be worth a mention from ESPN — all non-first round picks are NP’s not worth spending any time on, obviously — but there’s some hidden value there.

SS

Clemson JR SS Steve Wilkerson
Wake Forest SR SS Pat Blair
Florida State SR SS Justin Gonzalez
Maryland JR SS Kyle Convissar
Miami JR SS Alex Hernandez
Duke JR SS Angelo LaBruna

Wilkerson’s hot start is encouraging, but it remains the physical gifts — foot speed, athleticism, agility in the field, quick wrists — that make him a legitimate top ten round draft prospect. Less toolsy, but still talented, Pat Blair is a player I can comfortably identify as one of “my guys.” Reliable glove at either middle infield spot, enough pop to keep pitchers honest, and above-average speed that plays up due to his smarts are all things I can get down with, especially when the guy is a mature, patient hitter. I also like Justin Gonzalez, even though his scouting profile couldn’t be more different. His defense is good enough to keep him at short as a pro, so that’s a huge plus, but his carrying tool has always been his above-average strength and power as a hitter. Forgive me for being a broken record at this point, but Gonzalez seems poised to represent good value — I’m guessing his ceiling is probably rounds 9/10 to a team looking to save some pool money on a senior sign — and could wind up an interesting name to stash in the minors for a few years with the hope something somewhere someday clicks.

Convissar, Hernandez, and LaBruna are all steady gloves first and foremost. I expect to see all three names back on this list next year as senior signs, though Convissar reminds me a little bit of Gonzalez-lite.

3B

North Carolina JR 3B Colin Moran
Virginia Tech JR 3B Chad Pinder
Duke JR 3B Jordan Betts
Miami JR 3B Brad Fieger
Miami JR 3B Tyler Palmer
North Carolina State JR 3B Sam Morgan

Questions about power and defense, two pretty important considerations for a third base prospect, make the battle for top ACC position player a lot closer than many casual draft fans have been led to believe. My appreciation for Moran’s skill set has been on the record for some time. His plate discipline is as good as any amateur’s in the country, his swing is a thing of beauty, and his ability to make in-game and in-at bat adjustments is atypical for a hitter at his level. I think those are all aspects of Moran’s game that give him a clear edge over Pinder. Ah, but what of those aforementioned power and defense? Now you see why Pinder is quickly becoming a household draft name. Even if Pinder was a questionable bat going forward (note: he’s not), his defense the hot corner is good enough to make him an early round pick. Moran’s defense has been discussed ad nauseum across the internet, so my two cents on the topic have to be devalued by now. I’ll only offer the quick and dirty assessment based on what I’ve seen and heard: worst case scenario for Moran as a pro is that his defense is called passable, good enough, or average on his better days. I don’t see him contending for any awards at third, but I don’t think he’s a liability with the glove either. Pinder, on the other hand, should quickly emerge as one of pro ball’s most promising defensive third basemen in short order after signing. If we’re scoring this fight at home, consider defense a decided advantage for Pinder but not quite a knockout blow. That leaves the question of power. I’ll be honest and admit that my longstanding admiration of Moran’s game makes me come off as a bit of an apologist here. To me, power isn’t as much as a separator between the two as defense. It is clear that Pinder has shown more consistent power in his college career than Moran, and I believe he has more raw power to show off going forward. Moran’s lack of recent power — and by recent I mean so far this year and during stretches dating back to last year — can be explained away by injury, a lack of pitches to drive, and a body that only recently morphed from teenager to man. All of this needlessly long paragraph really adds up to is Moran is still the top third base prospect in the ACC (and all of college ball), but Pinder is either a very close second or the 1B to Moran’s 1A. I’ve always been pleased with the idea of Moran to my favorite team (Phillies) in the mid-first (16th), but I’ll amend my pre-season views re: Pinder being selected between rounds two and five. If a team like the Phillies want Pinder, they’d have to take him in the first because he won’t last much longer.

Moran: In many ways I feel like Moran has been put on the draft landscape just for me. That’s mostly because I’m an unrepentant egotist, but also because I a) love guys who consistently play above their tools, b) am a complete sucker for a pretty lefthanded swing, and c) have the importance of plate discipline, having a plan prior to every at bat, and generally taking a measured yet violent approach to hitting ingrained deep into my pitch black soul. Moran offers up a resounding check mark for each of those qualifications. I think he’s a better version of last draft’s Matt Reynolds with the upside of San Diego 3B Chase Headley.

Pinder: It is way too early to start assigning draft grades, so take the following with a jumbo sized chunk of salt: if you’re a fan of a team in need of a third baseman of the future, then Chad Pinder is as good a non-first round name to follow as any. If my favorite team misses out on and/or goes a different direction on, say, Colin Moran in the mid-first, then I’d be more than happy with Pinder being the next man up within the round two to five range. Pinder’s defense at third is legitimately exciting to watch. He has really quick feet, a strong arm, and great instincts on the left side of the infield. In a pinch, I’d have no problem playing him up the middle at short, a la a young Ryan Zimmerman. As a hitter, his power is right where you want it for a corner infielder (20+ home run upside) and he’s shown an ability to make critical adjustments game to game as well as pitch to pitch. The big quibble would be his plate discipline — 15 BB/40 K last season — but I think that’s more of a byproduct of how he was pitched in 2012.

I don’t put too much stock into early season numbers, good or bad, but for those that do, none of the other names on the list (Betts to Morgan) have lit the world in fire with big starts. Of the group, I give the edge to Betts because of his enticing blend of power, arm strength, athleticism, and size. Fieger is also a guy worth watching for no other reason than he makes an unusual amount of hard contact. I think it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing a real spike in extra base hits from him.

OF

Florida State JR OF Marcus Davis
Georgia Tech SR OF Brandon Thomas
Virginia Tech rJR OF Tyler Horan
Miami JR OF Dale Carey
Clemson rJR OF Thomas Brittle
Georgia Tech JR OF Kyle Wren
North Carolina State SR OF Brett Williams
Wake Forest rSO OF Kevin Jordan
Maryland JR OF Mike Montville
North Carolina State SR OF Tarran Senay
Virginia Tech rSR OF Andrew Rash
Wake Forest JR OF James Harris
North Carolina SR OF Chaz Frank
Miami SR OF Chantz Mack
Florida State rSO OF Brett Knief
Virginia rJR OF Colin Harrington
Maryland SR OF Jordan Hagel
North Carolina JR OF Thomas Zengel
Wake Forest JR OF Evan Stephens
Boston College JR OF Tom Bourdon
North Carolina JR OF Parks Jordan
Boston College SR OF Matt McGovern
Florida State SR OF Seth Miller
Clemson JR OF Joe Costigan
North Carolina State SR OF Bryan Adametz
Maryland rSO OF Charlie White

I’ve been driving the Marcus Davis bandwagon so long that seeing him hit the ground running at Florida State has been nothing short of beautiful. I’d love to get a better read on his defense — LF only is all I’ve heard, but I wonder if that’s more of a body type bias than anything based on skill level — but his bat has the potential to play anywhere you put him. Power, speed, strength, and a refined approach to hitting all add up to a darn fine hitting talent. One caveat worth mentioning because I’ve gotten similar questions about the topic in the past: Davis’ position atop this list shouldn’t be mistaken as a prediction that he winds up as the ACC’s highest rated outfield prospect come June. Egomaniacal as I may be, I realize full well that my own opinions often wrongly diverge with what both the experts and the drafting teams think about many prospects. These lists aren’t predictions about draft day, but rather rankings that show my personal preference if I was in a position to do the drafting. Many of the names below Davis on this list will go higher than he will in this year’s draft, but the team that takes a chance on him will no doubt be pleased with the player — and value — they are getting.

Thomas and Horan both are viable potential starting outfielders, though I can already envision a scouting report on either one a year or two from now calling them “talented fourth outfielders on a championship contending club, or second-division starters.” It’s easy to dream on draft talent (guilty as charged), but pro evaluation tends to paint a more realistic scouting picture. Thomas’ ability to play center makes him the more likely of the two to stick as an everyday guy. Defense is also responsible for the relatively high placements of Carey, Brittle, Wren, Williams, and Jordan, all players ranging from solid CF professionally to “wow” level defensive ability (Carey and Brittle come to mind).

Pretty sure that Chaz Frank and Chantz Mack were separated at birth. Check their 2012 lines head-to-head:

Chaz: .273/.407/.368
Chantz: .295/.410/.367

3,000+ words of writing makes you look for the little things that keep you amused. I also can’t help but be amused by Charlie White’s inclusion on the list. He was a bit of an afterthought, thrown on the list because of some decent numbers in limited at bats and a few nice things said about him by someone in the know. Well it’s only 37 AB so far, but his .432/.611/.541 line with 11 BB/2 K and 15/18 SB look pretty good. Interestingly enough, Maryland as a team has successfully stolen 44 bases in 52 tries. And they’ve been hit by 23 pitches (6 for White alone) while only plunking 10 guys. Alright I’m done.

SP

North Carolina JR LHP Kent Emanuel
Georgia Tech SR RHP Buck Farmer
North Carolina rSO RHP Andrew Smith
Virginia Tech JR RHP Brad Markey
Georgia Tech JR RHP DeAndre Smelter
Virginia Tech JR LHP Eddie Campbell
Virginia JR RHP Artie Lewicki
Georgia Tech JR RHP Matthew Grimes
Duke JR RHP Drew Van Orden
Georgia Tech JR RHP Dusty Isaacs
Georgia Tech JR C/RHP Zane Evans
Miami JR RHP Javi Salas
Virginia JR LHP Kyle Crockett
North Carolina State rJR RHP Anthony Tzamtzis
North Carolina JR LHP Hobbs Johnson
Clemson JR RHP Matt Campbell
Florida State JR RHP Peter Miller
Miami JR LHP Bryan Radziewski
Clemson SR RHP Scott Firth
North Carolina State SR RHP Ryan Wilkins
Miami SR RHP Eric Whaley
Maryland JR RHP/3B Jake Stinnett
Maryland SR LHP Jimmy Reed
Clemson rJR RHP Mike Kent
Virginia rSR LHP Scott Silverstein
Maryland JR RHP Brady Kirkpatrick
Boston College rJR RHP Matt Alvarez
North Carolina State SR RHP Ethan Ogburn
Georgia Tech JR RHP Jonathan Roberts
North Carolina State SR RHP Chris Overman
North Carolina JR RHP Shane Taylor
Boston College JR RHP Eric Stevens
Boston College JR LHP Steve Green
Miami JR LHP AJ Salcines
Miami SR RHP Eric Nedeljkovic
North Carolina SR RHP Chris Munnelly
North Carolina State SR RHP Josh Easley
Virginia rJR RHP Whit Mayberry
Virginia Tech JR LHP Colin O’Keefe
Wake Forest SR RHP Justin Van Grouw
Virginia Tech SR RHP Joe Mantiply
Wake Forest JR RHP Jack Fischer
Maryland JR LHP Jamie Pashuck
Florida State rSO LHP Evan Geist
Maryland rSO LHP Ben Brewster
Florida State JR RHP Robby Coles
Florida State JR LHP Brandon Johnson
Clemson rSR LHP Joseph Moorefield
Virginia Tech SR RHP Jake Joyce
Clemson SR RHP Jonathan Meyer
Clemson JR RHP Kevin Pohle
Boston College SO RHP John Gorman
Wake Forest SR LHP Niko Spezial
North Carolina State rSR LHP Grant Sasser
Boston College rSR LHP Nate Bayuk
Virginia Tech SR RHP Tanner McIntyre
Miami JR RHP Adam Sargent
North Carolina JR LHP Tate Parrish
Wake Forest JR LHP John McLeod
Virginia JR RHP Austin Young
Florida State SR RHP Scott Sitz
Georgia Tech JR LHP Devin Stanton
Boston College SR RHP Hunter Gordon
Virginia Tech SR RHP Clark Labitan
North Carolina State JR LHP DJ Thomas
Florida State rJR RHP Gage Smith
Duke SR RHP Chase Bebout
Wake Forest JR RHP Nate Jones
Georgia Tech SR RHP Clay Dalton
Duke JR RHP Robert Huber
North Carolina State SR RHP Danny Healey
Georgia Tech JR RHP Alex Cruz

Importance of stuff over stats acknowledged, but you have to give it up to what Buck Farmer is doing at Georgia Tech these days. I need to check with the boys at the Fangraphs lab, but I’m pretty sure allowing one run (unearned) in 21 innings to start the year while racking up 30 strikeouts (1 walk) along the way is pretty good. However, big performances by returning senior prospects are often overrated in a way that looks so obvious in hindsight. This isn’t the only reason why Matt LaPorta’s disappointments as a pro makes sense, but I think his letdown was a warning side for many front offices about the dangers of falling in love with a guy an entire year older than the vast majority of the best of his competition. The risk isn’t as great with pitchers, a group that follows a less predictable growth curve than hitters, so Farmer’s hot start shouldn’t be dismissed outright but merely viewed with through a more cautious lens.

As for the rest of the conference, maybe I’m in the minority or maybe I’m not, but I don’t see a lot of high-end pitching prospects here in 2013. There’s no first round pitcher and no one arm that I’d point to with confidence as a near-certainty to reach the big leagues as a starting pitcher. Th

Kent Emanuel does enough well that you could see him filling in a spot in the back of a rotation professionally one day. The aforementioned Farmer’s more consistent velocity, command, and slider makes him another potential starter. I also like Brad Markey’s balanced arsenal — 88-92 FB, good CB, good enough CU — and DeAndre Smelter’s raw stuff (at its peak) matches anybody in the conference. Andrew Smith has the best “now” stuff: a fastball that hits 94 and two breaking balls that he can use for strikeouts when he needs to. If healthy, you could bump up both Lewicki and Grimes a couple notches; as it is, the relatively high placement of two pitchers currently out after Tommy John surgery is an indication that perhaps the ACC is somewhat lacking in star 2013 arms.

Very Early Look: 2014 MLB Draft Names to Know

6 Mar 2013 12:14 AM / 16 Comments on Very Early Look: 2014 MLB Draft Names to Know

This isn’t the most substantive post I’ll ever write, but that’s what happens when you add real life distractions to a growing impatience towards a personal inability in finding a viable angle that makes 2013 draft prospects sound interesting in a way that doesn’t regurgitate the Twitter work being put in by the guys at BA and PG. I’m slowly beginning to realize that the general public cares only about the draft’s top 30ish or so names. I admit that this bummed me out for a few days, but I’m recommitted to being that one weird niche site that attempts to cover as much as the amateur game as possible.

Somehow all of that led to me thinking about the 2014 draft for the better part of the last week. All draft/college baseball fans know the name Carlos Rodon, the prohibitive favorite to go first overall in next year’s draft. He’s not quite as obvious a future number one pick as Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper once were, but I think Vegas would put him as a 50/50 shot against the entirety of the 2014 field. Knowing Rondon looms in 2014 could actually impact the 2013 draft. If it’s a coin flip between, say, Sean Manaea or Clint Frazier for the first pick this year, I wonder if the presence of Rodon and the near-certainty that Houston will finish with 2013’s worst record will have some within the Astros front office leaning towards a bat this June. Probably not, but stranger thought processes have borne fruit.

Early Front-Runners for Best in Class (2014)

North Carolina State LHP Carlos Rodon
Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Beede
San Diego State RHP Michael Cederoth
C Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo HS, California)
RHP Touki Toussaint (Coral Springs Christian HS, Florida)
SS/RHP Jacob Gatewood (Redwood HS, California)
SS/RHP Nick Gordon (Olympia HS, Florida)

The Rest

Unlike this year, college catching looks like a big potential strength in 2014, though it should be noted that the headline talent is a high school prospect. As we’ve come accustomed to in recent years, 1B appears particularly weak. If you want an early round 2B, look to the west. There’s not much to love as of now when it comes to shortstop depth, but, damn, any class with three potential top ten talents (Gatewood, Gordon, Turner) who look like good shots to stick at the position is alright with me. It is also possible that my opinion re: the lack of SS depth can be chalked up to my lack of familiarity with 2014 bats more than anything. 3B is poised to be a letdown after this year’s impressive class — same could be said for 2014’s group of HS catchers, a group that suffers only in comparison to an outstanding 2013 crop — but Chapman and Travis both look like early first round talents. For a variety of reasons, I think we’re seeing more and more tools-first, skills-second college prospects (think Austin Wilson) infiltrate the draft process. 2014 looks no different in that regard.

I should note that this list is far, far, far from comprehensive. There were dozens of names that I left off for a variety of reasons — I mostly tried to select guys who have balanced some degree of positive performance with impressive raw tools, straying only a handful of times — and I’m happy to explain any omissions if asked.

P

Clemson RHP Daniel Gossett
North Carolina RHP Benton Moss
North Carolina State RHP Logan Jernigan
Louisville RHP Nick Burdi
Notre Dame RHP Patrick Connaughton
LSU RHP Aaron Nola
Kentucky RHP Chandler Shepherd
Mississippi RHP Hawtin Buchanan
Mississippi RHP Chris Ellis
Auburn RHP Rocky McCord
Mississippi State RHP Brandon Woodruff
Mississippi State LHP Jacob Lindgren
Texas A&M RHP Gandy Stubblefield
Texas A&M RHP Corey Ray
TCU LHP Brandon Finnegan
Texas RHP Parker French
Arizona RHP Matthew Troupe
Oregon State RHP Dylan Davis
Loyola Marymount RHP Trevor Megill
Hawaii LHP Scott Squier
Portland LHP Travis Radke
Portland RHP Kody Watts
Rice RHP Jordan Stephens
East Carolina RHP Jeff Hoffman
Fresno State RHP Derick Velazquez
RHP Cameron Varga (Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy, Ohio)
LHP Carson Sands (North Florida Christian HS, Florida)
LHP Justus Sheffield (Tullahoma HS, Tennessee)
LHP Brady Aiken (Cathedral Catholic HS, California)
RHP Michael Kopech (Mount Pleasant HS, Texas)
RHP Ryan Castellani (Brophy Prep, Arizona)
RHP Derek Casey (Hanover HS, Virginia)
RHP Bryce Montes de Oca (Lawrence HS, Kansas)

C

Virginia Tech C Mark Zagunis
North Carolina State C Brett Austin
South Carolina C Grayson Greiner
Vanderbilt C Chris Harvey
Florida C Taylor Gushue
Arizona C Riley Moore
Indiana C Kyle Schwarber
Florida International C Aramis Garcia
Riley Jackson (Lexington Catholic HS, Kentucky)
Ryder Ryan (North Mecklenburg HS, North Carolina)
Handsome Monica (St. Paul’s HS, Louisiana)

1B

TCU 1B Kevin Cron
Wichita State 1B Casey Gillaspie
Ohio 1B Jake Madsen
Braxton Davidson
Justin Bellinger (St. Sebastian’s School, Massachusetts)

2B

Arizona 2B Trent Gilbert
UCLA 2B Kevin Kramer
Pepperdine 2B Austin Davidson
Bryson Brigman (Valley Christian HS, California)

3B

Maryland 3B KJ Hockaday
Indiana 3B Sam Travis
Cal State Fullerton 3B Matt Chapman
UC Irvine 3B Taylor Sparks
Southern Mississippi 3B Brad Roney
Wright State 3B Michael Timm
Drew Ward (Leedy HS, Oklahoma)*
Jack Flaherty (Harvard-Westlake HS, California)
Charlie Cody (Great Bridge HS, Virginia)

* Ward is a good bet to win his fight to gain eligibility for the 2013 MLB Draft. Until official word comes out, however, he remains a 2014 prospect.

SS

North Carolina State SS Trea Turner
Florida SS Casey Turgeon
Stanford SS Alex Blandino
Stony Brook SS Cole Peragine
Valparaiso SS Spencer Mahoney
Gregory Deichmann (Brother Martin HS, Louisiana)

OF

Virginia OF Derek Fisher
Kentucky OF Austin Cousino
Georgia OF Hunter Cole
Mississippi OF Senquez Golson
TCU OF Jerrick Suiter
Oregon State OF Michael Conforto
Stanford OF Domonic Jose
San Francisco OF Brad Zimmer
Southern Mississippi OF Mason Robbins
Bradley OF Max Murphy
San Diego State OF Greg Allen
Gareth Morgan (North Toronto Collegiate SS, Ontario)
Stone Garrett (George Ranch HS, Texas)
Scott Hurst (Bishop Amat HS, California)
Matthew Railey (North Florida Christian HS, Florida)
Kel Johnson (Home Schooled, Georgia)