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College First Basemen: A Brief History

Broad Conclusions

• If recent draft trends hold, there will only be 1 or 2 major league quality bats capable of holding down a big league starting job out the entire pool of 2010 college first basemen.
• An additional 2 or 3 major league quality bench contributors are likely to emerge from the pool of 2010 college first basemen.
• College first basemen of America, take note: It really helps to be versatile defensively. A quick perusal of the list reveals the vast majority of MLB starting players listed below now play a big league position other than first base.
• With 6 college first basemen taken in the first 23 overall picks, the 2008 MLB Draft was as much as an abberration as it seemed at the time. That said, the end results (only 1 or 2 major league quality bats capable of holding down a big league starting job) may yet fall in line with recent draft history. I’d personally bet the over, but with far less confidence than I had back in June 2008.
• Between 40-60 college first basemen will be drafted in 2010.
• Between 5-15 of those college first basemen will be drafted in the first ten rounds in 2010.

Notes

• Players are listed according to the position announced at the time of the draft according to the invaluable resource Baseball-Reference.
• Individual players were not listed from the three most recent MLB Drafts (2007-2009). We’ll let their more recent professional careers breathe a little bit before deciding who will make it as big league ballplayers or not.
• Designations between “Starters” and “Bench Contributors” (or in some cases, “Potential Bench Contributors”) are subjective in nature; players were given the benefit of the doubt in many cases, with bonus points awarded to guys who have either been a) valued enough by big league teams to receive get big league trials as starters or b) actively pursued via trade or the waiver wire. The most subjective classifications on the list are affixed to players drafted most recently; to remedy this to some degree, please feel free to disregard the mention of Strieby, Robbins, and Cooper as “Future Bench Contributors” if you disagree with those particular assessments.
• Re-drafted players count twice because each draft year is looked at as one singular entity. This method is less helpful when solely looking back at past drafts, but comes in handy when forecasting future draft outcomes, which is the real goal of the activity.

Breakdown

2002 (46 college 1B total; 13 college 1B in top ten rounds)

• Starter: Nick Swisher (1-16; Ohio State)
• Bench Contributor: Brad Eldred (6-163; Florida International)
• Bench Contributor: Ryan Shealy (11-321; Florida)

Notes: Swisher was highest drafted college 1B; Prince Fielder was highest drafted 1B overall; so-called “Moneyball” draft

2003 (42 college 1B total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)

• Starter: Conor Jackson (1-19; California)

Notes: Michael Aubrey was highest drafted college 1B (1-11; Tulane); Andy D’alessio (who went on to Clemson) was highest drafted high school 1B

2004 (56 college 1B total; 15 college 1B in top ten rounds)

• Starter: Adam Lind (3-83; University of South Alabama)
• Bench Contributor: Steven Pearce (10-305; South Carolina)
• Bench Contributor: Tommy Everidge (10-307; Sonoma State)

Notes: Michael Ferris was highest drafted college 1B (2-60; Miami Ohio); Daryl Jones was highest drafted high school 1B

2005 (48 college 1B total; 7 college 1B in top ten rounds)

• Future Starter: 33-1007 Tyler Flowers (Chipola JC)
• Potential Bench Contributor: 5-150 Jeff Larish (Arizona State)
• Bench Contributor: 8-241 Steven Pearce (South Carolina)
• Potential Bench Contributor: 8-246 Aaron Bates (North Carolina State)

Notes: Stephen Head was highest drafted college 1B (2-62; Mississippi); Henry Sanchez was highest drafted high school 1B

2006 (44 college 1B total; 11 college 1B in top ten rounds)

• Starter: Chris Davis (5-148; Navarro College)
• Starter: Matt LaPorta (14-433; Florida)
• Potential Bench Contributor: Aaron Bates (3-83; North Carolina State)
• Potential Bench Contributor: Ryan Strieby (4-112; Kentucky)
• Potential Bench Contributor: Whit Robbins (4-119; Georgia Tech)
• Potential Bench Contributor: Craig Cooper (7-213; Notre Dame)

Notes: Mark Hamilton was highest drafted college 1B (2-76; Tulane); Kyle Orr was highest drafted high school 1B

2007 (42 college 1B total; 8 college 1B in top ten rounds)

2008 (51 college 1B total; 11 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Notes: Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Ike Davis, Allan Dykstra were all college 1B picked in the top 23 overall selections; the next three four-year college 1B after the sextet of first rounders included luminaries such as Mike Sheridan, Jeremy Hamilton, and Steven Caseres

2009 (54 college 1B total; 10 college 1B in top ten rounds)

Data

• 46 + 42 + 56 + 48 + 44 + 42 + 51 + 54 = 383
• There were 383 total college first basemen drafted from 2002-2009 (8 drafts)
• 383/8 = 47.875
• Roughly 48 college first basemen were drafted on average in that span
• 13 +10 + 15 + 7 + 11 + 8 + 11 + 10 = 85
• There were 85 total college first basemen drafted from 2002-2009 (8 drafts) taken in the first ten rounds
• 85/8 = 10.625
• Roughly 10.5 college first basemen were drafted in the first ten rounds on average in that span

2010 MLB Draft: Who Will Be Drafted? Atlantic 10 Edition

Players are obviously grouped according to school, but there is no rhyme or reason to the actual order. Potential top-five round selections in bold. Any player on the list that absolutely shouldn’t be there? Any clear misses? Any players on my own list of near-misses (below) that deserve to be promoted to the first list? Any recommendations for next conference breakdown?

1. Charlotte JR 1B/OF Ryan Rivers
2. Charlotte SR C/OF Zane Williams
3. George Washington JR RHP Eric Cantrell
4. George Washington SR SS Tom Zebroski
5. St. Louis SR RHP Bryant Cotton
6. Dayton SO LHP Cameron Hobson
7. Dayton SO RHP Burny Mitchem
8. Rhode Island SR RHP Tim Boyce
9. Duquesne JR RHP/3B Andrew Heck
10. Richmond JR OF/RHP Billy Barber
11. Richmond SR 3B Cameron Brown
12. Richmond SR RHP Ian Marshall

I really like the Charlotte pair (Rivers and Williams) and the two “big name” pitchers (Cantrell and Hobson) both look like legit big league prospects to me. Marshall is the hardest thrower of the group. Best future prospect of the group is Dayton FR RHP Ian Gardeck (2012) with a fastball peaking in the mid-90s and a good slider.

1. (Charlotte SO OF Shane Brown)
2. (Charlotte JR OF Justin Wilson)
3. (Charlotte JR RHP Joe Yermal)
4. (Charlotte JR RHP Bryan Hamilton)
5. (Charlotte SR RHP Patrick Lawson)
6. (Charlotte SR RHP Kelly McLain)
7. (Charlotte JR 3B/SS Kevin Gillespie)
8. (Charlotte JR OF Cory Tilton)
9. (George Washington SR 2B Sean Rockey)
10. (George Washington JR OF Brendon Kelliher)
11. (George Washington SR 1B Chris Luick)
12. (St. Louis SR 1B Danny Brock)
13. (St. Louis JR OF Jon Myers)
14. (St. Louis SR C Ben Braaten)
15. (Dayton SR OF Aaron Dunsmore)
16. (Dayton SR SS Cole Tyrell)
17. (Rhode Island JR OF/1B Tom Coulombe)
18. (Rhode Island JR RHP Gardner Leaver)
19. (St. Joseph’s SR 2B David Valesente)
20. (Fordham SR OF Mike Mobbs)
21. (Duquesne SR C/1B Mark Tracy)
22. (Xavier JR OF John McCambridge)
23. (Xavier JR LHP Tommy Shirley)
24. (Xavier JR SS Phil Bauer)
25. (Richmond SR LHP Matt Zielinski)
26. (Richmond SR SS Victor Croglio)
27. (Massachusetts SR 2B Eric Fredette)
28. (Massachusetts SR OF Mike Donato)
29. (St. Bonaventure JR SS Jesse Bosnik)
30. (Temple JR SS Adrian Perez)

Mike Leake’s Debut

I hate being that guy who always quotes himself, but, well, allow me to quote myself:

Leake possesses a good fastball (sitting 88-92, peak 94), plus slider, above-average changeup, usable curve, plus command, plus control, plus athleticism, and, perhaps my personal favorite positive, intriguing potential with the bat. Can’t wait to see what he does with the Reds this season.

Ignore all that pitching stuff (6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 7 BB 5 K with 106 pitches — 57 for strikes — and 6 GO to 6 AO) and focus on the bolded part only. There are embarrassingly few things on this mortal earth that I love more than pitchers capable of handling the bat. Reading this quote made me all kinds of happy:

“I was almost more excited to hit today than pitch,” Leake said.

Again, ignore that totally unimportant pitching part (6.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 7 BB 5 K with 106 pitches — 57 for strikes — and 6 GO to 6 AO) and focus on what really matters. At the plate, Mike Leake went 2-2 with a pair of singles. That’s good for a 1.000 batting average, people! I’ve read that Leake’s hat is heading to the Hall of Fame, but if it were up to me you’d better be sure it would be his batting helmet making its way to Cooperstown instead.

On a slightly more serious note, here’s the current plan outlining what is in store this week. All entries are subject to change, and, as always, requests are always encouraged.

Plan of Attack for Week of April 12, 2010

• Who Will Be Drafted? Atlantic 10 Edition
• Positional Rankings (position TBD…college lefties, maybe?)
• Alternate Reality Mock Draft (expect this on Friday, the only day of the week I actually have planned out already)
• Mystery Draft 2.0
• More Data!
• Responses to all comments that I missed this past week

Data, Data, Data 2 – Revenge of the Worm Killers

Yesterday we looked at some of the flyballiest of college baseball’s most flyballing flyball pitchers. Today, the opposite. I limited it to potential first round candidates only, but now feel guilty about leaving out other strong groundball pitchers like Miami’s Chris Hernandez (68%), Cal’s Dixon Anderson (67%), and Florida State’s John Gast (70%). With that out of the way and my guilt finally assuaged, here are five potential first round starting pitchers with groundball percentages greater than 50%…

North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey – 78%

Florida Gulf Coast JR LHP Chris Sale – 67%

Texas Tech JR RHP Chad Bettis – 75%

Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 62%

Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 71%

And a pair of top-five 2011 prospects because it’s Friday…

Texas SO RHP Taylor Jungmann – 75%

Vanderbilt SO RHP Sonny Gray – 71%

Data, Data, Data

Big couple of days ahead at the real life, steady paycheck job, so today we’ll dig deeper into the data compiled so far and update the groundball/flyball pitcher numbers that pop up here on the site from time to time. Today let’s take a closer look at five potential first round starting pitchers with groundout percentages less than 50%…

Mississippi JR LHP Drew Pomeranz – 48%

LSU JR RHP Anthony Ranaudo – 44%

Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire – 49%

San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 38%

Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner – 47%

Mystery Draft 2010 – College Righthanders

No names, no hype, no actual right or wrong answer. Which prospect of the three college righthanders listed below would you be happiest to see your favorite team draft this June? Statistically, all three prospects are very similar, with the greatest discrepancy coming in Player A’s higher BB rate.

Player A

• Fastball: heavy 90-93 pitch, peaking at 94-97 mph
• Curveball: plus 77-80 mph pitch
• Change: sinking low-80s mph pitch with legit long-term plus potential
• Greatest Strengths: fastball explodes out of his hand when on; hard curve combines the best elements of both the traditional curve and a slider
• Biggest Concerns: command of secondary stuff comes and goes; inconsistent fastball velocity, both in-game and from game-to-game; below-average control
• Height, Weight: 6-5, 225 pounds

Player B

• Fastball: sitting 90-92, peaking at 93-94 mph
• Curveball: plus high-70s mph pitch
• Slider: mid-80s mph pitch that should be an above-average offering professionally
• Change: presently a solid pitch with encouraging arm action
• Biggest Strengths: depth of repertoire and excellent command of secondary pitches
• Biggest Concern: fastball isn’t overpowering; allegedly tips his pitches unknowingly due to tick in mechanics
• Height, Weight: 6-6, 220 pounds

Player C

• Fastball: 92-94 FB with plus life, peaking at 96-99 mph out of bullpen
• Curveball: decent 75-76 mph pitch with potential to be strikeout offering in time
• Change: average 83-84 pitch
• Other: low-80s slider and cutter have both been utilized in past, but haven’t been used in game action this spring
• Greatest Strengths: fastball alone is enough to get him his big league shot; plenty of projection left on an arm with minimal mileage
• Biggest Concerns: limited starting experience and lack of current above-average secondary offering
• Height, Weight: 6-5, 200 pounds

2010 MLB Draft: Who Will Be Drafted? ACC Edition

2010 Draftable ACC Talent

1. Duke JR SS Jake Lemmerman
2. Duke SR LHP Chris Manno
3. Duke SR RHP Mike Ness
4. Duke JR RHP Michael Seander
5. Virginia JR RHP Cody Winiarski
6. Virginia JR 2B Phil Gosselin
7. Virginia JR OF Jarrett Parker
8. Virginia JR RHP Tyler Wilson
9. Virginia JR RHP Robert Morey
10. Virginia JR OF Dan Grovatt
11. Virginia JR C/1B/OF Kenny Swab
12. Virginia SR SS Tyler Cannon
13. Virginia JR RHP Kevin Arico
14. North Carolina JR RHP Matt Harvey
15. North Carolina JR RHP Colin Bates
16. North Carolina JR RHP Patrick Johnson
17. North Carolina JR RHP Bryant Gaines
18. North Carolina JR 1B Dillon Hazlett
19. North Carolina JR C Jesse Wierzbicki
20. North Carolina SR SS Ryan Graepel
21. Georgia Tech JR RHP Deck McGuire
22. Georgia Tech JR RHP Kevin Jacob
23. Georgia Tech JR 3B Derek Dietrich
24. Georgia Tech JR RHP Brandon Cumpton
25. Georgia Tech JR C Cole Leonida
26. Georgia Tech SR 1B Tony Plagman
27. Georgia Tech JR OF Jeff Rowland
28. Georgia Tech JR OF Chase Burnette
29. Georgia Tech JR 2B Tony Nichols
30. Georgia Tech JR LHP Zach Brewster
31. Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn
32. Virginia Tech JR OF Austin Wates
33. Virginia Tech SR C Steve Domecus
34. Virginia Tech SO RHP Mathew Price
35. Virginia Tech JR SS Tim Smalling
36. Virginia Tech SR C Anthony Sosnoskie
37. North Carolina State SR 2B Dallas Poulk
38. North Carolina State SR OF Kyle Wilson
39. North Carolina State JR LHP Grant Sasser
40. North Carolina State JR 2B Russell Wilson
41. North Carolina State JR RHP Jake Buchanan
42. North Carolina State JR RHP Rey Cotilla
43. Miami JR C Yasmani Grandal
44. Miami JR LHP Eric Erickson
45. Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez
46. Miami SR RHP David Gutierrrez
47. Miami SR 2B Scott Lawson
48. Miami SR RHP Jason Santana
49. Florida State JR OF Tyler Holt
50. Florida State JR OF Mike McGee
51. Florida State SR SS Stephen Cardullo
52. Florida State JR RHP Geoff Parker
53. Florida State JR LHP John Gast
54. Wake Forest JR OF Steven Brooks
55. Boston College SR OF Robbie Anston
56. Boston College JR RHP Kevin Moran
57. Boston College JR 1B Mickey Wiswall
58. Boston College JR LHP Pat Dean
59. Maryland SR LHP John Dischert
60. Maryland JR RHP Brett Harman
61. Maryland JR LHP Adam Kolarek
62. Clemson JR OF Jeff Schaus
63. Clemson JR OF Kyle Parker
64. Clemson SR 2B Mike Freeman
65. Clemson JR LHP Casey Harman
66. Clemson SR OF Wilson Boyd
67. Clemson JR RHP Josh Thrailkill

The Near-Misses
…or prospects capable of playing their way into draft consideration this June or next…

1. (Virginia JR OF John Barr)
2. (North Carolina JR OF Ben Bunting)
3. (North Carolina JR RHP Greg Holt)
4. (North Carolina JR RHP Nate Striz)
5. (Georgia Tech SR RHP Andrew Robinson)
6. (Georgia Tech SR OF Jay Dantzler)
7. (Virginia Tech JR LHP Justin Wright)
8. (Virginia Tech SR RHP Ben Rowen)
9. (North Carolina State SR LHP Alex Sogard)
10. (North Carolina State JR RHP Rob Chamra)
11. (North Carolina State JR C Chris Schaeffer)
12. (North Carolina State JR LHP John Lambert)
13. (North Carolina State JR LHP Nick Rice)
14. (North Carolina State JR OF Ryan Mathews)
15. (North Carolina State SO RHP Gary Gillheeney)
16. (Miami SR RHP Taylor Wulf)
17. (Miami JR OF Chris Pelaez)
18. (Miami JR LHP Iden Nazario)
19. (Miami SR OF Ryan Perry)
20. (Florida State JR RHP Daniel Bennett)
21. (Florida State SO OF Taiwan Easterling)
22. (Florida State JR RHP Tyler Everett)
23. (Florida State JR 3B Stuart Tapley)
24. (Wake Forest JR LHP Mark Adzick)
25. (Wake Forest SR C Mike Murray)
26. (Boston College JR 2B Matt Hamlet)
27. (Maryland SR RHP Ian Schwalenberg)
28. (Clemson SO 3B John Hinson)
29. (Clemson JR OF Chris Epps)
30. (Clemson JR C John Nester)
31. (Clemson JR OF Addison Johnson)

Mike Leake = Big Leaguer

A look back through the archives at what has been written at this very site about the newest member of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation. The evolution of former Arizona State prospect and current big leaguer Mike Leake as seen through the lens of a nobody amateur draft prognosticator…

February 20, 2009

Leake was ranked 11th on my first ever published list of draft-eligible college players. Not bad, right? Just ignore the fact that he was sandwiched between Indiana’s Josh Phegley (a player I still like, but clearly not a prospect on Leake’s level) and the pitching version of Long Island’s James Jones, a player eventually drafted by Seattle as a toolsy outfielder. My evaluation of him at the time included the following defense of the “controversial” at the time ranking of Leake over Baylor’s Kendal Volz:

Leake over Volz is a little strange, but it came down to present plus command and movement over potential power plus stuff across the board.

February 27, 2009

One week later I noted the way Leake outdueled fellow future first round pick Kyle Gibson. Leake’s numbers that day: 8 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 10 K (11 GO/2 AO). Also noted at the time was Leake’s stellar groundball numbers: 19 of his 23 batted ball outs at that point in the season came on the ground.

March 3, 2009

This is where things starting to get hot and heavy with the Leake lovefest. His ranking (6th on a list of 2009 draft-eligible righthanded college pitchers) may not seem all that impressive, but keep in mind that meant only Aaron Crow, Tanner Scheppers, Kyle Gibson, Alex White, and Stephen Strasburg were ahead of him. Not a bad list of pitchers to fall behind, all things considered. His quick scouting report at the time looked like this:

Leake literally has everything I look for in a pitching prospect. Let’s do it bullet point style:

• Plus athleticism – has played first, second, short, and every outfield position as a Sun Devil
• Ability to handle the bat – hit .340/.500/.574 in 47 at bats last season (12/9 walk to strikeout ratio)
• Groundball inducing stuff – so far this season, 19 of his 23 non-K outs recorded have come on the ground
• Plus secondary pitch – slider works better as another groundball inducing weapon, but it also creates plenty of swings and misses
• Above-average third pitch – his changeup is nearly as good as his slider
• Plus command – his ability to spot any of his three pitches has earned him universal praise from scouts
• Plus control – roughly 1.75 BB/9 in his college career
• Plus makeup/competitiveness – only good things have been said by scouts, coaches, teammates, and parents about Leake’s drive to succeed and strong work ethic

What Leake is missing is an ideal frame (he’s 6-0, 180), an overpowering fastball (sits 89-92), and a whole lot of room for growth. I’d argue the last point a bit because I think any two-way player stands to gain a little something once they begin to focus solely on one aspect of the game, but, on the whole, those negatives are fair criticisms of Leake’s game. Fortunately, a blazing hot fastball and a “prototypical pitcher’s frame” each fall very low on the list of things I care about. A high radar gun reading on a fastball is a good thing, don’t get me wrong, but good fastball movement (something Leake has in spades) trumps good fastball speed every time. There is something to be said about a physical frame that needs filling out eventually producing a better fastball down the road, sure, but many college pitchers are what they are by their junior seasons anyway. The backlash against short righthanders is not grounded in empirical research, so I tend to actually look at short righthanded pitching as being a potentially undervalued asset in the draft every year. Yes, I just spun Leake’s lack of height as a positive. Your mileage might vary with that part of the assessment.

One industry comp and one personal comp for Leake before we wrap this thing up. First, my slightly off the wall comparison – highly-touted Japanese prospect Yu Darvish. Darvish has four inches on Leake and throws a knuckle-curve, but they have similar stuff (sinker, slider, change) otherwise. The better comparison may be the more common one – a lesser Tim Hudson, right down to the two-way talent shown at the college level. You could do worse than a poor man’s Tim Hudson come draft day.

My first prediction of where Leake would wind up drafted came at the end of the piece. Wasn’t quite on the money, but the guess worked pretty well for an early March estimate:

There will be sexier options on draft day for teams picking in the mid- to late first round, but there may not be as sure a bet to be a dependable major leaguer as Leake. I bet he is a target of teams with multiple high picks (Arizona) and mid-market franchises picking in the late teens/early twenties (St. Louis, Toronto, Houston).

March 10, 2009

When I updated the college big board with report card grades (a good idea for 2010 come to think of it), Leake received high praise:

11. Mike Leake – RHSP – Arizona State – One of the easiest grades to assign, Leake’s been phenomenal through three starts so far… A+

March 22, 2009

I can’t believe there is any doubt that Mike Leake has a first round caliber arm. His latest outing was excellent: 9 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 BB 15 K in a win over rival Arizona. His season numbers are pristine (48/7 strikeout to walk numbers in 40 innings of 1.35 ERA pitching) and his scouting reports have been positive all spring long.

April 2, 2009

Leake may be my favorite prospect in all the draft, but I’m not sure how much my opinion matters to teams drafting in the first round…yes, he’s a very good prospect and an almost sure-fire first rounder, but I don’t want my inflated opinion of him getting in the way of properly assessing his relative value.

May 8, 2009

Predicted Leake would go to Colorado with the 11th pick in the first round one month ahead of the draft

June 5, 2009

Stuck with Leake to Colorado with the 11th pick in last mock before the big day

June 9, 2009

Fourth on my last Big Board leading up to the draft! Fourth! My love of Leake as a prospect seemingly grew with every passing week. Nothing has changed from the glowing scouting report posted above. Leake possesses a good fastball (sitting 88-92, peak 94), plus slider, above-average changeup, usable curve, plus command, plus control, plus athleticism, and, perhaps my personal favorite positive, intriguing potential with the bat. Can’t wait to see what he does with the Reds this season.

2010 NFL Draft Big Board

Holiday weekend, spring break, warm weather, Opening Day quickly approaching…feels like as good a time as any to do something totally different around these parts. I finalized my 2010 NFL Draft for something elsewhere on the internet last night, so why not open up the list to public ridicule here as well as there?

Not included, unfortunately, are OF/LHP/S Chad Jones, OF/HB Toby Gerhardt, OF/WR Eric Decker, OF/WR Riley Cooper, and, the likely crown jewel of the 2011 NFL Draft and my favorite pro baseball prospect of the bunch, OF/QB Jake Locker. Between you and me, the top 24ish prospects ranked or so are where I feel most confident; once I get to the spot where my favorite team picks in the first round, my already meager knowledge base tends to dissipate. Keep that in mind as you check out the big board at the end.

As much as I love the NFL Draft now, I REALLY loved it back in the day. REALLY loved it. If it’s in ALL CAPS, bold, and italics, then you know I’m serious. We’re talking taping and then re-watching games on my sister’s 14″ 2-in-1 TV/VCR combo. Ah, life before the internet boom. If I had high speed internet back then, perhaps we’d all be reading the fantastic insight from the super successful website Football Draft Report right now. If that was the case, you would have been able to read gems like the ones I recently recovered from my 2002 NFL Draft notes whilst cleaning out my office…

1. No prospect reminds me more of a young Troy Aikman than David Carr. (Good call!)
2. No prospect reminds me more of a young Warren Sapp than Wendell Bryant. (Well, in my defense, they were both large men who played football!)
3. No prospect reminds me more of a young Derek Brooks than Napoleon Harris. (Maybe I just wanted a guy named Napoleon to succeed for a change…)
4. Julius Peppers is a classic boom or bust prospect. Smart money is on the latter. (Terrible, terrible, terrible. I think the 16-year old me was just happy to use “latter” correctly here…)
5. Quentin Jammer = best player in class (Not the stupidest thing I’ve ever said, but still not too bright…)
6. Ryan Sims = most ready to play right away in class (Still not sure why he was as bad as he was, but, boy, what a nondescript playing career he’s in the midst of…)
7. Jabar Gaffney should have a long, undistinguished career as a journeyman WR (Alright, that wasn’t a bad prediction actually…)
8. Antonio Bryant will have a better career than any other receiver in his class (Considering Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, and Gaffney were all seen as better bets at the time, I like this call…)
9. Kalimba Edwards > Dwight Freeney (Arguably as bad as the Aikman to Carr comp…)
10. Josh Reed = Troy Brown with more speed (This may not have worked out, but I’ll defend Josh Reed’s value to the death…)
11. TJ Duckett = Eddie George (In a parallel universe where the toilets actually flush counter clockwise, maybe…)
12. DeShaun Foster will go down as the best runner in the draft while Clinton Portis will be a steady starter, but never a star (First and last time I’ve ever doubted a Hurricane…)
13. Lamont Thompson = four time All Pro safety (What an oddly specific, and truly terrible, prediction…)

With my reputation as a brilliant football draft prognosticator now a matter of public record, please do enjoy yet another faceless hack’s list of most promising 2010 NFL Draft prospects.

2010 NFL DRAFT FIRST ROUND BIG BOARD

1. Suh
2. Clausen
3. Berry
4. Bradford
5. McCoy
6. McClain
7. Thomas
8. Haden
9. Spiller
10. Okung
11. Bulaga
12. Iupati
13. Morgan
14. Pierre-Paul
15. Price
16. Wilson
17. Graham
18. Campbell
19. Davis
20. T. Williams
21. Bryant
22. Mays
23. Bowman
24. Kindle
25. Hughes
26. Gresham
27. Best
28. Brown
29. Pouncey
30. D. Williams
31. Tate
32. Odrick

Five Quick Thoughts

1. I’ve been working on an updated 2010 MLB Draft big board, but still haven’t quite found the right mix to get it published yet. Right now, my top 15 shakes out like this: Harper – Taillon – Cole – McGuire – Hahn – Whitson – Castellanos – C. Sale – Pomeranz – Paxton – Wilson – Machado – Harvey – Workman – Ranaudo. Sticking with the same top three I’ve had all along (I think), but Pomeranz and Machado both get considerable leaps up the board. I still have my questions about Pomeranz, but the results so far (almost 15 K/9 IP) are just too good to ignore.

2. I always debate on the relative merits of a posts chronicling the risers and fallers of the draft season, but always wind up shelving it for one reason or another. Looking back at an early season edition of an unpublished draft that never saw the light of day made me think back to an interesting tidbit I heard about one of this year’s biggest fallers. Georgia Tech closer Kevin Jacob = the new Josh Fields, Georgia’s old closer. Fields wound up going back to school his senior year in an effort to bump up his draft stock. Will Jacob, a pitcher widely considered to be at or near the top of the list of potential pro closers this year, go the same route?

3. A goal of mine this year is to predict as many of the draft-eligible D1 college players selected in the draft as possible. I wonder what a good target would be? 50% seems too low and, confident as I am, 100% seems flat out impossible. Split the difference and shoot for 75%? 80%? This year will be a trial run and set a baseline for what I’d like to do in the future. Should be fun.

4. In anticipation of said prediction, I’ve spent the past few days digging through my notes to get a feel for the draft-eligible talent on a conference-by-conference scale. Initial thoughts include the following gems: a) the Atlantic 10 has a real paucity of good hitting prospects, but a surprising number of interesting arms, b) the Sun Belt is headlined by Bryce Brentz, but a couple of shortstops could make some noise as defense-first mid-round draft prospects this June, c) at first glance, the ACC appeared to be lacking in talent compared to recent years, but it still has a pretty good overall blend of star potential (McGuire, Hahn, Harvey) and steady yet unspectacular potential regulars (any number of solid starting pitching candidates, plus bats like Grovatt, Dietrich, Wates, Grandal, Holt, Parker, and Wiswall). More on this to come…

5. I’m on spring break, so that means I’m now one day into three paid days off from work. Spring break falls this year in the week leading up to MLB’s Opening Day, a week otherwise known as the longest week of the year. That worked out pretty well, I’d say. Then again, if the break came next week then I’d be currently getting amped up for a road trip down to DC for Halladay v Lannan on Monday. With temperatures hitting the 80s this weekend and live baseball action back in Philadelphia (Phillies v Pirates on Saturday…hey, I’ll take what I can get), life is good. Of course, spring break isn’t all fun and games. Relax? Me? Never. Goals for spring break include watching baseball (hard work, I know), getting a tan (brutal), and doing some serious site maintenance (now we’re talking!). Time to update links, change up the layout a bit, and maybe start thinking about a full-scale redesign. An updated big board and an April mock draft are also both on the agenda.