The Baseball Draft Report
Archive for
The Week Ahead
Monday – Updated Top Fifty 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospect Big Board (or the UTF2010DEPBB for short)
Tuesday – 2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns: Big West Outfielders
Wednesday – LSU 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects
Thursday – Updated College Team Profile: Texas
Friday – Draft Notebook
Pretty straight forward week, I think. The only new addition on tap is the Friday Draft Notebook feature, a dumping ground for any draft prospect related notes that don’t fit in elsewhere during the week. As always, I’m open to any and all suggestions.
College Team Profiles: Minnesota Golden Gophers
One of the most popular (fine, the only) question I’ve been emailed since starting this site up goes a little something like this: I’m going to see ____ University/College/State play this weekend and I was wondering if there was anybody with a professional future that would be worth watching. The College Team Profiles are designed to preemptively answer any and all questions about the prospects from a particular college team…or maybe just open up a whole new debate full of new, even more confusing questions. We’ll see. The next three draft classes for one particular school are featured, with the players ranked in order (from greatest to least greatest) within each class.
As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.
JR OF/C Mike Kvasnicka (2010) possesses one of the longest swings of any major prospect in the 2010 draft. This is a good thing when he makes contact (I’ve heard both the thwack! of the bat in the Northwoods League and the ping! at Minnesota, both very impressive), but a very bad thing when up against pitchers with effective offspeed stuff. Kvasnicka has struck out 103 times in 438 college at bats. Any regular reader knows that I’m firmly entrenched in the strikeouts are no worse than any other kind of out camp, but that only really applies to big leaguers. There is something to be said for high-K rates being an indicator of poor contact abilities for minor leaguers and amateurs. If I was told I’d be drafting the current iteration of Kvasnicka, then I’m not sure I’d be too happy selecting a hitter who I won’t think will make enough contact to be a regular. Luckily, nobody is drafting the February version of any potential draft pick. Any team drafting Kvasnicka isn’t getting the Kvasnicka of February, 2010; they’ll get the player he will be someday down the line. Given the fact that Kvasnicka is a plus athlete with a well-rounded toolset (good speed, decent arm, plus raw power), there should be plenty of teams interested to see if he can figure it all out professionally, long swing and strikeouts be damned. His draft stock (already pretty solid – round 4-7 is my current guess) gets a bump if teams buy into his defensive abilities behind the plate.
JR RHP Scott Matyas (2010) has experienced serious success (78 strikeouts in 60.2 college innings) with his 88-91 MPH fastball, good cutter, above-average low-70s curve, and plus command. He’s a good athlete with great size (6-4, 215) that has recovered nicely from high school Tommy John surgery. His mechanics are now a lot cleaner than they were back then, and his durability has gone from a question mark to a strength. He’s a reliever all the way, but a darn good one.
JR RHP Seth Rosin (2010) is build like a tank (6-6, 245) with the heavy artillery (sinking fastball at 88-92 MPH, peaking at 94) to go to battle. He’s secondary stuff (inconsistent mid-70s CB and a low-80s CU that needs a ton of work) currently lags behind, but I know of plenty scouts who believe both pitches will develop into at least usable options by the time he hits the high minors. Those scouts see him as a possible back of the rotation starter down the line, but I think his ceiling is closer to that of Boof Bonser. I know Bonser has 60 big league starts to his credit, but they were largely ineffectual innings. Now that he has switched to the bullpen in Boston, I’ve got a hunch that Bonser’s stuff will play up and make him an effective reliever going forward. Rosin’s future could very well play out the same way. Ineffectual fifth starter or dependable middle reliever? You make the call.
JR RHP Dustin Klabunde (2010) was a more highly sought after prospect coming out of high school than Mike Kvasnicka thanks in large part to a fastball peaking up past 95 MPH. Unfortunately, even after two seasons of college ball, Klabunde still has no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand (16 walks in 22.1 innings). I can envision a scenario where a scout sees him on a good day and falls in love with the heat, but not to the point where I’d be confident predicting he gets himself drafted in 2010.
JR RHP Cullen Sexton (2010) gets a lot of love in certain scouting circles, but it’s hard to see why. For a guy who is a reliever all the way, he’d need to have knockout stuff to rise up draft boards. Well, at this point anyway, that’s just not the case. He currently sits 86-90 with his fastball, complementing it with an iffy mid-70s curve with come-and-go command. His college splits page doesn’t reveal much (not a huge sampling of innings for a college reliever), but it is interesting to note that Sexton’s already subpar 5.34 ERA was actually saved by a slew of unearned runs scoring on his watch (7.22 RA). One positive, however, was the fact that in 2009 opponents only slugged .330 off of him. Not sure what any of that means in a larger sense, but figured they were at least worth mentioning. Anyway, Sexton has been picked twice by the Brewers already, so file that player/team match away on draft day.
SR C Kyle Knudson (2010) is a good athlete with a strong arm. He also has some pop and a big league ready frame, but the total tools package still comes up short. He’s not a real prospect at this point, but could get himself a professional job filling out a rookie ball roster if a team is in need of a reliable backstop. Catchers are always in demand, you know.
JR LHP Luke Rasmussen (2010) is a crafty lefthander capable of either starting or relieving. He’s an excellent athlete who has put up decent collegiate numbers thus far, so he earns the right to go on my personal mental follow list. We’ll check back in on his progress as the spring rolls along. As an aside, I love the Pro-Alumni games that some colleges put on. Minnesota’s Pro-Alumni team included Dan Wilson, Jack Hannahan, Robb Quinlan, and Derek McCallum, a personal favorite out of the 2009 draft. Where else could you see that collection of random talent on one field? I’d love to make Pro-Alumni rosters of other colleges, maybe that is something to consider for next offseason. Anyway, to finally bring this all back together, Rasmussen got the start in the Pro-Alumni game for the Gophers. He threw 2.2 perfect innings, striking out two (including Hannahan…though it should be pointed out Hannahan has a career .227/.303/.318 line against lefties).
JR LHP Phil Isaksson (2010) is another pitchability lefthander with a suboptimal fastball (mid-80s) who gets by with good command and an above-average breaking ball (in Isaksson’s case, a curve). Prospects like this are hard to judge. It’s easy to dismiss them because they are so common at this level, but every now and then one slips through the cracks and becomes a legitimate player to watch. I’m not saying Isaksson is one to watch
JR OF Brooks Albrecht (2010) came to Minnesota as a walk-on. He’s done a fine job of taking that opportunity and running with it so far, but this will be a make or break year in his development. We know that he is a good athlete with a big league body, but that’s about it. He is in position to earn more regular time in outfield this year.
SR RHP Allen Bechstein (2010) is one of only two seniors on the Gopher roster. He is a small righthander (6-0, 175) without overpowering stuff coming off a disaster of a junior season (43 hits allowed in 22.1 innings pitched). I’d say something bold here like “I’d walk to Minnesota if Bechstein gets drafted!” but I simply don’t have the guts. What can I say? I’m no Jim Rooker.
JR RHP Scott Fern (2010) has an average fastball and below-average secondary stuff. Hey, did you know there is no such thing as red fern? For anybody who has ever read Where the Red Fern Grows, this is a complete disappointment. Also, Scott Fern isn’t really a pro prospect.
JR RHP Tim Ryan (2010) certainly looks the part (6-5, 200), but his only real claim to fame from a baseball perspective comes from being the son of former Twins general manager Terry Ryan. I’m not one to stir the pot or anything, but does anybody else think a high school prospect who only struck out 37 batters in 55 innings probably wouldn’t be on a major college baseball roster unless he had either a) compromising photos of an AD, or b) a famous last name? That’s how both Billy Rockefeller and Walter Einstein got on the roster at Eastern State Technical University, I heard. Gooooooo ESTU!
JR SS Drew Hanish (2010) has an older brother playing in the Yankees system; that’s as close as he’ll get to professional ball.
2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns – Big East Outfielders
Pick a conference, pick a position, pick a draft year, and go. That’s basically the formula for the 2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns. Nothing fancy, just a quick snapshot of where the college talent is and a quicker way of disseminating 2010 draft-eligible player information to the masses. Three quick facts worth remembering as you read – 1) All rankings are preliminary and subject to change, 2) The current rankings are the top X amount of guys, but players at the back end will be added intermittenly until all players are ranked, and 3) I can’t really think of a third thing to remember, but they say you’re always supposed to list things in three, so here you go…
As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.
Some quick thoughts before we get to the guts of the rankings. First, this isn’t a particularly good crop of prospects. If you are only really interested in the first few rounds of the draft, Ijames is probably the only name you need to know. After that, I’d guess only Lang, Lockwood, and maybe Richmond would be top ten round guys. The Cincinnati trio all show promise, but really everybody ranked after number four needs a good year of hitting if they want to head into the draft confident of getting selected.
1. SO OF Stewart Ijames (2010 – Louisville) missed the majority of the 2009 season with a torn rotator cuff, but his talent is so obvious that he heads into the 2010 season with top five round buzz. Ijames has excellent bat speed and plus power potential, a good approach at the plate, and enough defensive aptitude that he should be an above-average defender in a corner. He reminds me a little bit of Idaho guard Mike Iupati; both players have last names that I’ve seen mistakenly spelled with an “L” instead of an “I.”
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2. JR OF Michael Lang (2010 – Rutgers) offers up a very intriguing power/speed combination, emphasis on the speed. The former walk-on has come a long way since enrolling at Rutgers; I actually like him a little bit better than his more highly regarded teammate Jaren Matthews. Lang has the ability to play centerfield professionally and his plus arm should make him a defensive athlete in due time. His offensive skill set could make him an option hitting leadoff in the big leagues someday.
3. JR OF Ryan Lockwood (2010 – South Florida) couldn’t duplicate the success of his outstanding freshman campaign, but still showed off enough of his toolset to keep scouts happy. Lockwood has good speed, plays above-average defense, and has average raw power (though little of it has manifested just yet). His best tool is obviously the bat, something a .415 freshman batting average does a good job of arguing in favor of. His draft stock will shoot up as high as his bat takes him, but his other skills (namely the defense and speed) will help keep him in the first 15-20 rounds even if he doesn’t hit .400 again.
4. JR OF Josh Richmond (2010 – Louisville) delivers five solid tools – defense good enough for center, a very strong arm, emerging power but questionable ceiling with the bat, and average speed. Richmond is currently below the radar a little bit, but he could pretty easily put it all together and get himself picked in the first ten rounds this spring.
5. SO OF Anthony Howard (2010 – Cincinnati) is a draft-eligible sophomore with a lot to like about his game. He is a solid contact hitter who goes to the plate with a plan in mind. That, along with his plus athleticism and good speed, should make him a successful leadoff hitter going forward. Some teams may like him more as an infielder, a position he played in high school. He has great baseball instincts no matter where he plays, and his above-average arm should play well at any position.
6. JR OF Mikel Huston (2010 – Cincinnati) comes to Cincinnati with the reputation as a hitter first and an athlete second. That’s alright by me so long as you can really hit, something we won’t really know about Huston until he starts getting his swings in this spring. Early word, so take it for what it’s worth, is that he has an advanced hit tool with enough power potential to get on follow lists. He has below-average speed that will relegate to him to an outfield corner, but, again take these for what they are, early reports are that his defensive instincts are excellent. I’d guess he doesn’t have quite enough bat to ever play every day, but could make a solid backup down the line.
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7. JR OF Justin Riddell (2010 – Cincinnati) is a good natural hitter that may not have the requisite secondary skills to make it as much more of a role player professionally.
8. OF/2B JR Brandon Boykin (2010 – Rutgers) may be coming off a poor sophomore year, but his plus speed and excellent athleticism make him worth watching this spring. His value will go up if scouts believe he can play in the infield.
9. SR OF Jimmy Parque (2010 – St. John’s) was a 40th round pick out of junior college in 2008 with solid gap power and a good approach at the dish. His size (5-9, 170) may be a deterrent for some teams, but a big final college season could make him a late round senior sign candidate.
10. JR OF John Schultz (2010 – Pittsburgh) doesn’t have any exceptional tools, but his good plate discipline means he rarely gets cheated at the plate and his good speed can help him take extra bases when needed on the base paths.
11. JR OF Stephen Hunt (2010 – South Florida) has a strong arm tailor made for right field and enough pop to garner some attention, but probably needs a big junior season if he wants to exceed his draft standing (17th round) out of high school here in 2010.
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12. JR OF Junior Carlin (2010 – South Florida) profiles similarly to teammate Ryan Lockwood, except Carlin put together a huge batting average dependent line as a sophomore while Lockwood’s big line (.415/.493/.513) came in his freshman season. Like Lockwood, Carlin can also play a legitimate centerfield, but, unlike Lockwood, his speed has been questioned. So, he’s like Lockwood but without some of the speed and the secondary hitting skills. Not an awful prospect, but not a stone cold lock to be drafted either.
13. SR OF Jarred Jimenez (2010 – Rutgers) is a bit of a rarity, a small (5-9, 190) outfielder without the speed and range to project as a centerfielder. He does have good plate discipline, so he has at least that one plus going for him.
14. SR OF David Mills (2010 – Notre Dame) is a similar player to Jarred Jimenez of Rutgers – strong arm, corner outfielder, tiny (5-9, 165), great plate discipline. Mills is probably the better runner of the two. He has a reputation of being a line drive machine, but the knocks against him (size, power, can’t play center) keep his ceiling from being much higher than fifth outfielder on a good day.
15. JR OF Pat Biserta (2010 – Rutgers) only has one tool that grades out as above-average, but it is the ever important power tool. Just to be clear, we’re talking about the hitting the ball out of the ballpark kind of power tool, not the cordless drill kind of power tool.
Wichita State Shockers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects
Another day, another (mostly) completed College Team Profile. All of the 2010 draft-eligible Shockers, from Coy to Gilmore, can now lay claim to at least getting a little attention from this tiny corner the internet. You can find the updated list by either scrolling down the page a bit or clicking right here:
Wichita State Shockers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects
So far, I’ve completed 2010 College Team Profiles on Virginia, Stanford, and 90% of LSU. Those are some of the best of the best programs college baseball has to offer, bursting at the seams with easily identifiable talent all over the diamond. Wichita State, a damn fine program in its own right, can’t exactly claim to match the star power of those potential top-ten schools on a consistent basis, but still offers up an intriguing mix of high risk, high upside prospects, highlighted (see what I did there?) by draft-eligible freshman Johnny Coy and draft-eligible sophomore Jordan Cooper. I’m personally a much bigger believer in Coy than I am in Cooper, but the consensus opinion still regards Cooper as the top draft-eligible Shocker. Maybe I just really want to see an NBA-sized MLB third baseman whose name isn’t Ryan Minor, I don’t know.
Coy and Cooper are locks to be drafted and really smart bets to be drafted quite high. After those two, however, things get far dicier for Wichita’s 2010 draft-eligibles. Ryan Jones and Tim Kelley should both find their way onto team’s draft boards in the mid-rounds (10-20, I’d guess), but, really, those are the only four players I feel 100% confident will get drafted off the Wichita State roster. Two of my favorite sleepers (Preston Springer and Cobey Guy) need to have the big seasons I’m predicting they will to get serious draft love; Springer’s bat is one to watch and his value will shoot up if a team believes he can handle third again, while Guy’s above-average stuff and sterling collegiate numbers ought to get him noticed by somebody, somewhere. A couple of two-way players, Mitch Caster and Clint McKeever, round out the list of Shockers with at least a glimmer of hope to be drafted in 2010. Caster is the better prospect, but McKeever could latch on with a club in the last few rounds for his versatility, if nothing else.
Tyler Fleming has been drafted twice by Texas already (2006 and 2007), so would it really surprise anybody to see the Rangers spend a late pick on him? Fleming wouldn’t normally be a player to keep an eye on, but he clearly is on the radar of at least one big league team that we know of.
One guy I’ve actually heard positive things about since initially posting the list has been Will Baez. I still question his power, but his upside at second base was described to me as being a “reverse Carlos Ruiz.” Ruiz made the switch from second base to catcher shortly after being signed by the Phillies. Baez is one year removed from making the full-time switch from catching to playing second. In other words, Baez could be a prospect as a player with a limited ceiling with the bat, but a strong enough glove at his new position to provide net positive value. That doesn’t jive with my assessment of his defense (“shaky”), but, like I said, I’ve heard positive things about his progress this past fall/winter, especially with the glove.
I’m surprised about the weird idiosyncratic writing tics that I completely miss while writing, but then suddenly appear so clearly to me after finishing one last edit. Like, I’m just now realizing I used the word “moonlighting” twice in a span of seven players. Not sure if that is more of an indictment of my writing ability (poor on a good day) or the piece-meal approach I take to doing these profiles (spreading out the writeups over the course of a week or so). I’d normally go back and edit one of them out, but moonlighting is such a cool word that I’m inclined to just let it stand.
Stanford Cardinal 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects
Now that I’ve finally finished combing through all of the Stanford 2010 draft-eligible players, let’s take a moment to reflect on what kind of prospects could be coming to a local minor league ballpark near you…
Stanford Cardinal 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects
Stanford’s big draft score will come in 2012, but the 2010 class isn’t without talent. Kiilsgaard is a tools guy with the kind of elite athleticism that makes you think he may just figure it out. Walsh’s biggest current flaw — poor power production — is a killer for most prospects, but the positive scouting reports on his power projection puts him in prime position to vault into the early rounds this June. I’m high on Kaskow and Marshall, but not too keen on Pracher. After those five prospects, things get dicey. Thompson, Schlander, Jones, and maybe Moon could all be late round picks, but I wouldn’t put any of their individual odds better than 50/50 at this point. The next group (Giuliani, Bannister, Gaylor, Clauson, Clowe) is made up of marginal talents who will need a lot of luck if they want to be considered as even undrafted rookie ball bodies.
The Debut of Bryce Harper
Source: SI.com
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Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated. Profound, huh? That’s my one sentence summary of Bryce Harper’s debut weekend. I guess I get some of the resentment of a player with such limited experience getting so much attention this early in his career, but I don’t see how anybody could let such a trivial emotion get in the way of objective analysis. Don’t hate the player because of the over-the-top media coverage of his debut; “hate” him for something meaningful in a baseball sense, like maybe because he still doesn’t have a true defensive home, or because he still hasn’t shown the ability to play up to his level of competition, or because he’s still so darn young that it is hard to project some of his growth dependent skills like 1) Will his still growing frame keep him from catching?, 2) Will he lose athleticism and foot speed as he bulks up?, and 3) Will his throwing mechanics, already seen as shaky by some, get worse with time?
Hey, speaking of media coverage…
“I can’t say anything about Bryce Harper,” said Zona, one of five members of the Nationals organization on hand to scout Harper and others in the Coyote Border Battle tournament.
Washington assistant general managers Bob Boone and Roy Clark and scouting director Kris Kline also attended CSN’s opener, witnessed by the largest crowd in the program’s 11-year history, about 1,300. Kline also declined comment about Harper.
Bob Boone, Roy Clark, Kris Kline, Jeff Zona, and one mystery man. It’s not quite Obama, Biden, Emanuel, and Axelrod, but it’s a pretty powerful Washington contingent all the same.
Harper capped his night by hitting a sacrifice fly to left field in the eighth inning during an attempted intentional walk. He reached out and poked the opposite-field drive for his second RBI.
Do we like this? I think I do, but I can very easily see this as evidence for the Harper haters as proof that he thinks he is bigger than the game or other such nonsense. Am I being paranoid with that “Harper haters” crack? Probably, but my crystal ball does show a growing storm of Harper backlash building up steam between now and June…
CSN raised its ticket prices this season, to $8 for a single game (from $5) and to $12 for a doubleheader (from $8). The school also raised prices for the tournament to $8 per game and $25 for a tournament pass (from $20).
Somebody at CSN has a pretty good idea of how to run a business. I’m fairly certain I’ve never paid more than $8 for a college game, but most of the games I’ve attended have either a) been in non-elite stadiums (like Boshamer pre-renovation), b) been in the northeast (in my experience, every university north of DC has been free), or c) been paid for by a student at the university (man, I miss my college discounts). Back on topic…
Pretty sure that this deserves to be posted without any further comment…
He knows what to expect; he had to close off practice in the fall because of interruptions caused by autograph hounds. A Harper autograph on auction site eBay.com is listed at $299. His autograph on the Sports Illustrated cover has been sold for $800.
Ah, finally the “big” Harper news of the weekend. Never in my life have I seen such an innocent comment misconstrued so badly by so many people. How can anybody read this…
“He’s getting a lot of hype,” Huntington said. “We will scout Bryce Harper. But we’re not going to select him because somebody thinks he’s the best prospect in the history of the game and we think he’s the 10th-best.”
…and come away with the conclusion that the Pirates currently have Bryce Harper tenth or lower on their organizational big board? Pittsburgh will pick the player they believe is the best fit for the franchise, nothing more and nothing less. The insane Harper hype will have no impact on their decision to draft or not draft him. Pressure from the fans won’t matter. Pressure from the media won’t matter. Evaluations from big league front offices besides Pittsburgh’s won’t matter. The only thing that will matter is whether or not the player is the best fit for the franchise. Will that be Bryce Harper? I still doubt they’ll ever get the chance to decide.
Through four games, Harper is hitting .263/.364/.474, good for an OPS of 838. He’s 5 for 19 with 1 HR, 1 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R, and 3 BB.
