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2010 College Baseball’s Second Weekend Kicks Off

61 pages. 18,962 words. That’s the current status of my “College Draft Notes” Word document that I’m soon ready to unleash to the general public. I only really mention it because last night, at around the 18,000 word mark, Word stopped working for a moment to send me a notice saying the automatic spell check feature had to be disabled due to the excessive length of the document. Needless to say, that was a first for me and, for some reason, I really got a kick out of it. Anyway…

Sonny Gray v Gerrit Cole on tap tonight. That’s pretty damn exciting. I remember liking Gray over Cole when they were high schoolers, but the development of Cole’s secondary stuff has been nothing short of amazing. As outstanding as the 2011 draft class is shaping up to be, I’d still bet good money that the real debate at the top will come down to Rendon v Cole. Battle lines will be drawn, prospect ideologies will be tested, brother will oppose brother…all because of the soon to be raging Rendon v Cole debate. Anyway, again…

Some of the best of the best college baseball has to offer in the second weekend of the season. Some of the biggies are abundently clear like Vanderbilt @ UCLA, Stanford @ Texas, and Texas Christian @ Cal State Fullerton, but some upset specials could be on the forecast in series such as Maine @ North Carolina, Wright State @ Clemson, Elon @ Rice, and Texas State @ Baylor. Other intriguing matchups (mainly listed for prospect watching reasons) include Louisville v Michigan, South Carolina @ East Carolina, James Madison @ Coastal Carolina, Tennessee @ Oregon State, Oklahoma v Valparaiso, South Florida v Ohio State, San Diego State @ San Diego, Boston College @ Auburn, St. John’s v Minnesota, Notre Dame v Illinois, Kent State @ Wake Forest, Ohio @ Middle Tennessee State, and Oregon @ Hawaii.

College Baseball’s Opening Weekend 2010 – Sunday Starters

Sorry to keep dragging this out, but real life has gotten in the way of any other writing getting done. In the meantime, here’s a list of some of the most interesting Sunday starters. Commentary to be added as the day chugs along…

Ball State JR RHP Kolbrin Vitek – 4 IP 5 H 4 ER 0 BB 2 K
Arkansas JR RHP Brett Eibner 3 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
Florida State JR LHP John Gast – 6 IP 4 H 2 ER 0 BB 5 K
Georgia Tech JR RHRP Kevin Jacob – 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
North Carolina JR RHP Colin Bates – 7 IP 6 H 3 ER 0 BB 5 K
NC State JR RHRP Russell Wilson – 2 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K
Kentucky JR LHP Logan Darnell – 6 IP 7 H 2 ER 2 BB 6 K
Oregon State JR RHP Greg Peavey – 5 IP 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 4 K
Mississippi JR RHP Trent Rothlin – 6 IP 2 H 1 ER 4 BB 2 K
Duquesne JR RHP Andrew Heck – 6 IP 5 H 1 ER 0 BB 3 K
Virginia Tech JR RHP Jesse Hahn – 7 IP 5 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K
Oklahoma JR RHP Bobby Shore – 7 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K
UCLA SO Erik Goeddel – 2.2 IP 4 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K
UNC Wilmington JR RHP Daniel Cropper – 7 IP 5 H 1 ER 0 BB 7 K

Arizona LHP SO Bryce Bandilla – 3 IP 4 H 0 ER 1 BB 5 K
Texas SO RHP Austin Dicharry – 6.2 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 5 K
LSU SO RHP Joey Bourgeois – 6 IP 4 H 0 ER 0 BB 7 K
Cal State Fullerton SO RHP Tyler Pill – 7 IP 5 H 0 ER 1 BB 6 K
Georgia Tech SO LHP Jed Bradley – 6 IP 4 H 0 ER 1 BB 12 K
Florida SO RHRP Nick Maronde – 0.1 IP 2 H 3 ER 1 BB 0 K
Florida SO RHP Anthony DeSclafani – 4.1 IP 4 H 0 ER 0 BB 4
Clemson SO RHP Kevin Brady – 3.1 IP 3 H 1 ER 0 BB 1 K
Kentucky SO RHP Braden Kapteyn – 3 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Mississippi SO RHP David Goforth – 1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Vanderbilt SO RHP Jack Armstrong – 5 IP 9 H 3 ER 3 BB 3 K

Mississippi FR RHP Brett Huber – 2 IP 1 H 1 ER 0 BB 3 K
South Carolina FR LHP Tyler Webb – 4.1 IP 5 H 0 ER 1 BB 6 K

College Baseball’s Opening Weekend 2010 – Saturday’s Hitters

Quick Saturday batting lines of note with more of my oh so very insightful commentary to come as the day rolls along…

LSU SR 1B Blake Dean 4-5, BB, 6 RBI, 2 R
LSU SO OF Mikie Mahtook 2-3, 3B, SB, 3 RBI, 2 R
LSU SR DH Matt Gaudet 3-5, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 3 R

Dean may be making tremendous progressive defensively at first, but it is still his bat that will carry his pro prospects going forward. Four hit days like the kind he had on Saturday help.

Rice JR 3B Anthony Rendon 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R, HBP
Rice SR C Diego Seastrunk 2-4

Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Taylor Jungmann, and Mikie Mahtook make up my very early preliminary 2011 college top five. First four are chalk, though there is plenty of room for variation in the order, but the fifth spot is wide open. Alex Meyer, Jack Armstrong, Zach Cone, Ryan Carpenter, and Brett Mooneyham should all be in the mix, but additional personal favorites such as John Stilson, Harold Martinez, Adam Smith, and Kyle Winkler all could surprise. I’ really not afraid to admit that my excitement level for the 2011 MLB Draft is sky high.

Stanford FR CF Jake Stewart 2-6, RBI, R
Stanford FR 3B Kenny Diekroeger 2-3, 2 R

I personally don’t wonder if Stewart and Diekroeger will be first rounders in 2012; instead, I’m looking forward to how high each can elevate their respective stocks while playing for a college program notorious for holding back more than a few talented hitters with the dreaded “Stanford Swing.”

Florida State 3B/1B FR Jayce Boyd 3-5, 2B, RBI, R
Florida State JR CF Tyler Holt 2-5, 2 R
Florida State SR SS Stephen Cardullo 1-1, HR, BB, 2 HBP, 3 RBI, 3 R

Pretty good days for Florida State’s best draft prospect in each of the respective draft years listed. Boyd has first round power, Holt is an easy top-three round guy at present, and Cardullo’s blend of steady defense, good enough speed, and advanced knowledge of the strike zone make him a solid late round senior sign sleeper candidate.

Arizona State SO OF Drew Maggi 3-5, 2B, 2 SB, BB, RBI, 2 R, K
Arizona State SO DH Zach Wilson 3-5, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R, K
Arizona State SO 2B Zack MacPhee 4-4, HR, 2 3B, 5 RBI, 4 R
Arizona State SO 3B Riccio Torrez 4-5, 3B, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, 4 R
Arizona State SO C Austin Barnes 4-5, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R

I literally didn’t even realize all five Arizona State players listed were sophomores until this very moment. Add in another talented sophomore, OF Johnny Ruettiger, and that makes two-thirds of the Sun Devil lineup second year players. Cool.

Georgia Tech SR 1B Tony Plagman 4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R
Georgia Tech JR CF Jeff Rowland 2-4, 2 3B, 3 RBI, R, K

TCU FR OF Josh Elander 4-5, SB, 2 RBI

Elander is loaded with tools, from plus power potential to a plus arm to above-average speed underway. He’s also freakishly strong, something a 150-pound relative weakling such as myself says with the utmost respect. Seeing such a tools-laden player hit the ground running as a freshmen is pretty darn exciting.

Miami SR 2B Scott Lawson 3-3, 3B, SB, RBI, 3 R

Ball State JR 2B Kolbrin Vitek 4-5, 3B, RBI, 3 R

Virginia Tech JR 1B Austin Wates 3-5, RBI, K

Louisville JR OF Josh Richmond 3-6, SB, RBI, K

South Carolina FR 3B Christian Walker 4-5, HR, 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R

San Diego JR CF Kevin Muno 4-5, 2 RBI, 2 R, K
San Diego SR OF James Meador 4-5, 4 RBI, 2 R

They may not be Maris and Mantle, but San Diego’s version of the M&M Boys make up a big, productive chunk of the Toreros veteran lineup.

Florida SO 1B Preston Tucker 2-3, 2 BB, 2 R
Florida FR SS Nolan Fontana 0-1, 3 BB, 2 R

Texas A&M SR CF Brodie Greene 3-3, 2 3B, 2 SB, HBP, RBI, 3 R

Oklahoma SO SS Caleb Bushyhead 3-4, 2B, 3 RBI, R
Oklahoma SO SS Caleb Bushyhead 3-3, 2B, R

Easily the best Saturday of baseball ever recorded by a man with the last name of Bushyhead.

San Diego State JR CF Cory Vaughn 0-5, 4 K

Ouch.

Georgia SO CF Zach Cone 4-5, HR, 3B, 2B, RBI, 2 R

The beginning of potential turning into production right before our very eyes?

Tennessee JR CF Josh Liles 3-4, 2 RBI, R, K

Boston College JR CF Robbie Anston 4-5, 3 RBI, 3 R

Pittsburgh JR 3B Joe Leonard 3-4, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R

Leonard is a good athlete with a cannon for an arm, but not much more than occasional gap power at this point. If he continues to show progress in that area of his game, he could jump off draft boards as teams are always looking for quality college bats that aren’t restricted to first base or the corner outfield.

Auburn JR 1B Hunter Morris 3-6, SB, RBI, 2 R

At first I wanted to make a joke about the big guy stealing a bag, but turns out he’s now 7/9 stealing bases in his college career. Good for him.

Alabama JR 2B Ross Wilson 3-5, RBI, R

Middle Tennessee State OF Bryce Brentz 2-5, R, 2 K

College Baseball Opening Weekend 2010 – Saturday Starters

Updated the Friday Night Hitters post below with a couple of random, semi-coherent ramblings about a few players of interest. Now to take a look at the most interesting pitching performances from Saturday…

“Big” Name 2010s

San Diego JR RHP Kyle Blair – 4 IP 4 H 1 ER 4 BB 8 K
Texas JR RHP Brandon Workman – 6 IP 9 H 3 ER 2 BB 7 K
San Diego JR LHP Sammy Solis – 5 IP 5 H 1 ER 2 BB 4 K
LSU JR RHP Austin Ross – 5 IP 3 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
South Carolina JR RHP Sam Dyson – 3.2 IP 0 H 0 ER 1 BB 6 K
California SO RHP Dixon Anderson – 7 IP 4 H 0 ER 0 BB 8 K
Missouri JR RHP Nick Tepesch – 5 IP 8 H 6 ER 2 BB 3 K

Hey! Nick Tepesch! Remember him? Once considered the next great first round arm to come out of Missouri, Tepesch’s path to draft stardom hasn’t gone smoothly. He can still sink and cut the fastball effectively, but the stalled progress of his curve and change are worrisome. I like that Dyson and Anderson are back-to-back on the list; Dyson’s prospect stock last year as a draft-eligible sophomore reminds me a lot of where Anderson, a player with a lot of helium, is currently at.

“Lesser” Name 2010s

Mississippi SR RHP Aaron Barrett – 6 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 7 K
Georgia SR RHP Jeff Walters – 5.2 IP 6 H 3 ER 1 BB 7 K
Vanderbilt JR RHP Taylor Hill – 6.2 IP 6 H 0 ER 2 BB 9 K
Michigan JR RHP Matt Miller – 6 IP 6 H 2 ER 2 BB 3 K
Notre Dame JR RHP Brian Dupra – 4.1 IP 4 H 3 ER 1 BB 3 K
Pepperdine JR LHP Matt Bywater – 9 IP 4 H 0 ER 2 BB 10 K
Georgia Tech JR RHP Brandon Cumpton – 5 IP 7 H 2 ER 0 BB 2 K
Miami JR LHP Chris Hernandez – 4 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 5 K
North Carolina JR RHP Patrick Johnson – 7 IP 5 H 1 ER 2 BB 7 K
Oregon State JR RHRP Kevin Rhoderick – 1.1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K

All names that should probably ring a bell if you’re a close follower of the college game, with one exception – Matt Bywater. I saw his impressive line on Saturday and immediately checked my notes to see what interesting tidbits I had ready to share about him. What I had was the following: “Pepperdine LHP Matt Bywater.” That’s all. And now you realize once again why the sterling content provided on this site has, is, and will forever be free.

“Big” Name 2011s

Stanford SO LHP Brett Mooneyham – 5.1 IP 2 H 3 ER 9 BB 7 K
TCU FR LHP Matt Purke – 5 IP 7 H 3 ER 1 BB 8 K
Clemson SO LHP Will Lamb – 2.1 IP 1 H 0 ER 0 BB 1 K
Louisville SO RHP Tony Zych – 0 IP 6 H 7 ER 1 BB 0 K
UCLA SO RHP Trevor Bauer – 8 IP 4 H 3 ER 2 BB 13 K

Mooneyham picked up right where he left off last year. Lots of strikeouts, very few hits allowed, and waaaaay too many walks. Did anybody else catch Bauer’s curveball on Saturday night? His solid fastball, plus curve, and Lincecum-style funky delivery make him a really fun contrast to more highly touted classmate Gerrit Cole.

“Lesser” Name 2011s

Texas A&M SO RHP John Stilson – 4 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
Alabama SO LHP Adam Morgan – 6 IP 3 H 3 ER 0 BB 11 K

I wish I was smarter than to get this worked up over four measly innings, but I’m very excited to see Stilson get off to a start like this. He’s got a special arm (fastball sitting low-90s, peaking 95) and is a fantastic athlete.

2012s

Duke FR RHP Marcus Stroman – 3 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Kentucky FR LHP Taylor Rogers – 7.2 IP 6 H 0 ER 1 BB 2 K
California FR LHP Justin Jones – 7 IP 7 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K

College Baseball 2010 Opening Weekend – Friday Night’s Hitters

Because I spent most of my weekend celebrating the start of meaningful baseball reviewing old scouting reports and communicating back-and-forth with baseball people way smarter than myself, content may be light for the next few days. As I sort through some of the updated information I’ve been lucky enough to receive, why not check out who did what in college baseball’s opening weekend? The post below this one has most of the big name Friday night starters listed, but I figured this would serve as a dumping ground for some of the late night Friday starters that I didn’t get to then, plus the Saturday/Sunday starters, and some of the most interesting hitting lines of the weekend. More and more players will be added as the day goes on, plus I’ll be sure to drop in and add some of my oh so sexy prose to what would otherwise be a complete onslaught of numbers.

Position Players – FRIDAY

Virginia JR OF Dan Grovatt 2-5, RBI, 2 R
Virginia SO 3B Steven Proscia 2-3, HR, 4 RBI, R
Virginia JR OF Jarrett Parker 2-3, 2B, RBI

Georgia Tech JR SS Derek Dietrich 1-2, 2B, 2 BB, R

North Carolina SO 3B Levi Michael 2-4, BB, RBI, R, K
North Carolina FR 2B Tommy Coyle 0-3, BB, R, K
North Carolina FR RF Brian Goodwin 0-4, RBI, K

• Totally throwing this out without too much thought, but am I crazy to think there are some similarities between Georgia Tech’s Dietrich and Carolina’s Michael?

Clemson SO 1B Will Lamb 4-4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 R
Clemson JR OF Kyle Parker 2-5, HR, 3 RBI, R, K

Duke JR C Gabriel Saade 0-4, 2 K

• Saade is an interesting guy for a couple of reasons, not the least of which being his recent experimentation behind the plate. More on Saade, written here a few weeks ago: He went into his junior year as a legitimate pro prospect, a versatile defender capable of playing anywhere up the middle (2B, SS, CF) coming off of two solid years playing every day in the ACC (.269/.354/.456 as a freshman, .286/.376/.483 as a sophomore). His junior year didn’t quite go according to plan, unless Saade’s plan was to hit .237/.339/.333. If that was the case, then his plan really couldn’t have gone any better. The big dip in numbers is concerning, especially the total disappearance of power, but there are some positives to glean from his 2009 performance. His K/BB ratio has dipped each season (2.26 to 1.96 to 1.33) and his stolen base numbers have remained consistently stellar (46/54 collegiately, including his stint in the Valley League). If he can bounce back to his pre-junior levels of production, something many scouts think he is capable of doing if he stops being so darn pull-happy, then he has a shot at being an interesting senior sign (round 15-25, maybe) for a team believing in his future as a steady fielding big league utility player.

Virginia Tech JR 1B Austin Wates 2-3, 3B, 2 BB, 2 RBI, R

Kentucky SO 3B Andy Burns 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R

Louisville SO OF Stewart Ijames 3-5, 2B, 3 RBI
Louisville JR 3B Phil Wunderlich 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, R
Louisville SR 1B Andrew Clark 2-4, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R
Louisville SR 2B Adam Duball 3-5, 2B, RBI, 3 R
Louisville JR RF/CF Josh Richmond 2-4, BB, 4 R, 2 SB

• Louisville’s lineup may have not been facing top-level pitching this weekend, but they still like a potential offensive force in the Big East.

Arkansas SO 3B Zack Cox 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, 2 R, K
Arkansas JR 1B Andy Wilkins 2-2, HR, 2 BB, 2 RBI, 2 R
Arkansas JR CF Brett Eibner 2-4, SB, RBI

Auburn JR 1B Hunter Morris 3-5, RBI, R

West Virginia JR SS Jedd Gyorko 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R (2-3, HR, 1B, RBI GO off of Cody Wheeler)

• I’m starting to warm up to Gyorko the more I read and hear about him. The Youkilis comp is obviously a tad over the top when taken literally, but there are undeniable similarities between the two Big East superstars. Baseball talent evaluation has come a long way, however, when you consider Gyorko almost certainly won’t top Youkilis’ final college season (.405/.549/.714), but will still get picked significantly higher than the eighth round, Youkilis’ draft landing spot.

Vanderbilt JR 1B Curt Casali 2-4, BB, 2 R
Vanderbilt JR OF/1B/C Aaron Westlake 3-4, 2 2BRBI, R

• Casali and Westlake have each proven to be competent at first and in the outfield corners, but increased playing time behind the plate would do wonders to their respective prospect stock.

Cal State Fullerton JR CF Gary Brown 2-5, 2 SB, R
Cal State Fullerton JR SS Christian Colon 2-5, K

• The clash of the Titans ought to be one of the most interesting position player battles to watch this spring. Colon is the favorite, no doubt, but Brown’s superior tools could push him into the sandwich round, not too far behind where I think his college teammate could get taken.

Gonzaga SR CF Drew Heid 4-5, 3B, RBI, 2 R

Mississippi JR DH Miles Hamblin 0-4, BB, K

• Hamblin, one of the top junior college players of 2009, started off his career in big-time college baseball with a dud, but store his name away as a top-ten round caliber player if he hits as expected this spring.

Florida JR 2B Josh Adams 3-3, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R
Florida FR DH Austin Maddox 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R

• Maddox’s first start showed off what he does best as a prospect – hit the baseball very, very far. He’s also only the third best defensive catcher on the Florida roster, a testament to the awesome catching depth of the Gators and Maddox’s biggest weakness as a prospect.

Michigan FR SS Derek Dennis 2-4, 2B, BB, R, K
Michigan SO DH/C Coley Crank 4-6, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R

• Not a bad debut for Dennis, a potential 2012 first rounder in what is shaping up to be an excellent class of shortstops.

Arizona State SO 2B Zack MacPhee 3-4, 3B, 2B, BB, SB, 2 RBI, R

Miami JR C Yasmani Grandal 0-1, 3 BB, HBP, 3 R, K
Miami SO 3B Harold Martinez 2-4, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R, K

Oregon State JR 3B Stefen Romero 3-5, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, K

UCLA JR OF Brett Krill 3-5, R

Texas A&M SR CF Brodie Greene 3-4, BB, 4 RBI, 2 R, K

• The senior just keeps on rolling along. I hope he maintains this pace (well, maybe not this pace…he’d break records if he kept this up) and gets himself drafted in the upper 25 rounds as a solid organizational senior sign with the potential to someday have some value playing all over the diamond. What can I say? I’m a sucker for versatile college seniors from big-time college baseball programs. Interesting to note the former middle infielder is now playing centerfield.

Tennessee JR CF Josh Liles 3-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 R

Tennessee JR 2B/SS Khayyan Norfolk 4-5, SB, RBI, 2 R

Washington JR 1B Troy Scott 2-4, 2B, R, 2 K

Villanova JR OF Matt Szczur 4-6, 2B, SB, 4 RBI, 2 R

• I kept Szczur off the top Big East outfielder list a few weeks ago, but only because I was still considering him as a potential catcher first and foremost. I may have to go back and add him to the list of players to watch because 1) word out of Villanova is that he has looked good enough in the outfield that the team thinks he can be a real asset in a corner professionally, and 2) he’s a damn fine hitter that ranks up there with almost any Big East outfielder in upside.

Pittsburgh JR 3B Joe Leonard 2-6, HR, 2B, 6 RBI, 3 R, 2 K

NC State SO C/1B Pratt Maynard 3-6, HR, 2 BB, 6 RBI, 3 R
NC State FR OF Tarran Senay 4-6, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, 4 R, 2 K

• A pair of underclassmen that I’m unreasonably high on at this point. I think Maynard will shoot up draft boards this spring and wind up in the mix for first college catcher taken in 2011. Heck of a first game for the toolsy Senay, a player with massive raw power.

College Baseball Opening Night 2010 – Friday Starters

“Big” Name 2010s

Georgia Tech JR RHSP Deck McGuire – 7 IP 5 H 0 ER 0 BB 10 K
Florida Gulf Coast JR LHSP Chris Sale – 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 K
LSU JR RHSP Anthony Ranaudo – 5 IP 1 H 0 ER 2 BB 6 K
North Carolina JR RHSP Matt Harvey – 5.2 IP 5 H 3 ER 2 BB 3 K
Ohio State JR RHSP Alex Wimmers – 6 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K
Georgia Tech JR RHRP Kevin Jacob – 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K
Mississippi JR LHSP Drew Pomeranz – 4 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 7 K
Georgia JR RHSP Justin Grimm – 5 IP 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 6 K
Tennessee JR LHSP Bryan Morgado – 5 IP 4 H 3 ER 2 BB 6 K
Baylor JR RHSP Shawn Tolleson – 6 IP 5 H 3 ER 3 BB 11 K

Not really a bad line out of the entire Opening Night starter bunch, I’d say. Pomeranz’s command was shaky, Ranaudo’s stuff wasn’t as sharp as it could have been, and Harvey was all over the place with his control, but, all in all, a darn fine night for college baseball’s aces.

*** Sale only pitched two innings because he’s being saved for this upcoming Wednesday’s huge game at Miami. He was incredibly sharp in this one, hitting the mid-90s with regularity. Sale vs Miami is shaping up to be one of the most highly anticipated early season mid-week games in recent memory.

*** Baseball America had Harvey sitting 92-94, touching 96. Lack of control or not, that kind of velocity this early in the season is an excellent sign for Harvey, a pitcher with a history of inconsistent radar gun readings.

*** Best publicly available groundout ratios of the night belong to Harvey (10/1 ground out to air out ratio) and Wimmers (7/1). Use that information anyway you see fit.

“Lesser” Name 2010s

San Diego SR RHSP AJ Griffin – 6 IP 6 H 4 ER 0 BB 8 K
East Carolina JR RHSP Seth Maness – 5.2 IP 6 H 4 ER 1 BB 4 K
Notre Dame JR RHSP Cole Johnson – 5.1 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 2 K
Virginia JR RHRP Tyler Wilson – 3 IP 2 H 0 ER 2 BB 4 K
Clemson JR LHSP Casey Harman – 5 IP 1 H 0 ER 1 BB 3 K
Louisville JR RHSP Thomas Royse – 5 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
Arkansas SR RHSP Michael Bolsinger 5 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 6 K
Florida JR RHSP Tommy Toledo – 3.1 IP 3 H 0 ER 2 BB 4 K (WP, 2 HBP)

*** Griffin had a bizarre 1/9 ground out to air out ratio. I’m almost positive Griffin was a significant groundball pitcher last year, so it’ll be interesting to see if this one start was an aberration or the start of a larger trend.

*** Johnson has a solid reputation and good stuff, but he still hasn’t been able to harness his natural talents to dominate at the college level. The solid line he put up on Friday is indicative of his college performance thus far. Steady results, uninspiring strikeout numbers.

*** Wilson is coming out of the bullpen because Virginia has a pitching staff that rivals that of some minor league teams, but his stuff is good enough to start professionally. He’s a top ten round player.

“Big” Name 2011s

Vanderbilt SO RHSP Sonny Gray 8 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 8 K
UCLA SO RHSP Gerrit Cole – 6 IP 1 H 2 ER 0 BB 9 K
Texas SO RHSP Taylor Jungmann – 7 IP 7 H 1 ER 1 BB 8 K
Virginia SO LHSP Danny Hultzen – 6 IP 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 4 K
Kentucky SO RHSP Alex Meyer – 5 IP 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 8 K

Totals: 32 IP 19 H 7 ER 8 BB 37 K

Those five 2011 arms are something special. I’ve been toying with a 2011 Mock Draft for a couple of days and every time I do a rough sketch of the first ten to fifteen picks or so, all of the names above appear…but each time I do it, I come up with a new order. I think I like them in the order I have them above, but that’ll change, oh, about ten thousand times between now and next June.

The GO/AO numbers for the quintet: Jungmann – 9/1, Cole – 7/2, Hultzen – 9/3, Gray – 10/4, and Meyer – 2/4.

“Lesser” Name 2011s

Baylor SO RHSP Logan Verrett – 7 IP 9 H 6 ER 1 BB 5 K
Rice SO LHSP Taylor Wall – 3 IP 4 H 3 ER 2 BB 3 K

Verrett and Wall both struggled some in their debuts, but they are still both 2011s well keeping a close on eye, Verrett especially. He’s a pitcher that would be getting a lot more attention (talked about as a serious top of the first half round candidate) if he wasn’t part of such a loaded class. Timing is everything, I suppose.

Technical Difficulties

Apologies to anybody who tried to check in yesterday while WordPress was down. I’m now a little bit behind schedule, so the College Team Profile on Texas and the Draft Notebook will get pushed back. To make amends, a quick preview of College Baseball’s Opening Night. That’s right, College Baseball’s Opening Night! You know it’s a big deal with it gets capitalized…

• Matchups I’m Watching – Virginia @ East Carolina, Oregon @ Cal State Fullerton, Rice @ Stanford, Missouri State @ Georgia Tech, South Florida @ Florida, Rutgers @ Miami, Ball State @ Arkansas, West Virginia @ Coastal Carolina, Oklahoma @ San Diego State, Georgia @ Baylor, Boston College @ Tulane, Kentucky @ Virginia Tech, Duke @ Baylor, Gonzaga @ Missouri, Pepperdine @ Long Beach State
• Top 25 - I’m not nearly enough of an expert on college baseball to make any kind of meaningful top 25 ranking, but I am full of myself enough to make a top 25 list of most interesting to watch teams from a draft prospect standpoint. That’s what I’ll be working on this weekend, so expect that to be rolled out next week. I’m still tinkering with the order, but right now a few of the teams in the running for the last few spots include some old standbys (Arizona State, Miami), some programs on the rise (Florida, Oregon), and some programs with talent that will surprise (Gonzaga, Connecticut, Central Florida)
• Pitchers - One of my pet projects that I’ve enjoyed over the past couple of seasons has been combing through college box scores to see if there is any worthwhile data to be found. Often, there is not. You’d think that would stop me from doing it every year, but here we are on the morning of another college season and I’m excited to do it all over again. Anyway, to finally get to the point, if there are any pitchers outside of the big names (Ranaudo, McGuire, Sale, Hahn, you know the guys) that you’d be interested in knowing more about from a statistical standpoint, let me know.

LSU Tigers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

I had started this a few months ago, but now all of the 2010 draft-eligible Tigers (unless I’m missing anybody, of course) are complete. Check it out. For those not to be bothered clicking a link, some quick thoughts about LSU’s 2010 draft class below the link…

LSU Tigers 2010 Draft-Eligible Prospects

Ranaudo is obviously the big prize and a heck of a prospect despite some of the hemming and hawing I’ve done about his place among the very top talents of the 2010 draft. I think he’s suffering from a little bit of overanalysis, a fate that all too often befalls the cream of the draft crop. I know I’m guilty of some of this microanalysis; high profile high school stars turned college prospects like Ranaudo wind up being in the scouting spotlight for four years, minimum. Call it reverse shiny new toy syndrome. Rusty old toy syndrome? No, that’s too negative sounding. Overlooked old prospect syndrome? I like it. That way, when you miss on a good college player because you’ve spent too much time focusing on his flaws and not appreciating all the good things he brings to the table, you can just chalk it up to OOPS.

It’s a shame that Jones is going to the NFL, but it’s hard to fault a guy with a rock solid second round grade and clear impact potential on the gridiron. I’d do cartwheels if he fell to the Eagles in the third, by the way. I mentioned in the writeup that I think Landry better prepare himself for a season of Jared Mitchell comparisons, but I now wonder if his stock will rise up that high in the eyes of the majority. Players with a plus raw power/plus athleticism combination are right in my wheelhouse, so I’m willing to stick with Landry for better or worse this spring.

Gibbs’ status as a prospect has vacillated between underrated to overrated back to underrated in my head all over the past two months. His strengths play into a lot of what I value highly from a catching prospect (strong defense, experience catching high profile arms, good plate discipline), but one of his biggest perceived (by me) weaknesses (in-game power) may have been overstated (again, by me). Long story short, I like Gibbs now more than ever, but still think he’ll end up being a steal in rounds 2-3 rather than a reach in round 1 or the supplemental first.

I’m very optimistic about Dishon, less so about Bradshaw, and pretty much in line with the consensus view on Ross. The idea that at least one of Dean, Gaudet, or Koeneman can make it as a big league bench bat someday appeals to me, as does the thought of Ben Alsup usurping the role of “next Lou Coleman” right out from Bradshaw’s nose. Lastly, I’m excited to see Blake Dean, the best of the aforementioned potential big league bench bats, give first base a whirl this season. All the reports from Baton Rogue are encouraging enough that I’d like to see the big guy at work.

2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns – Big West Outfielders

Pick a conference, pick a position, pick a draft year, and go. That’s basically the formula for the 2010 MLB Draft College Conference Position Breakdowns. Nothing fancy, just a quick snapshot of where the college talent is and a quicker way of disseminating 2010 draft-eligible player information to the masses. Three quick facts worth remembering as you read – 1) All rankings are preliminary and subject to change, 2) The current rankings are the top X amount of guys, but players at the back end will be added intermittenly until all players are ranked, and 3) I can’t really think of a third thing to remember, but they say you’re always supposed to list things in three, so here you go…

As always, whether you agree, disagree, or think I’m a dope who should leave this sort of stuff to the experts (thanks, Mom)…let’s hear it via email (you can use either robozga at gmail dot com or thebaseballdraftreport at gmail dot com) or in the comments section.

JR OF Gary Brown (2010 – Cal State Fullerton) reminds me of three established big leaguers, all for different reasons. He resembles Shane Victorino for his defensive range in center, plus speed, and intriguing power/speed combo. I see some Chone Figgins (pre-2009 breakout, mostly) in the way he’ll be an incredibly valuable player due to defensive versatility despite having only an average arm. At his very best, however, I can see some young Johnny Damon in his game, especially if his power potential comes around the way I expect it will. Brown has legit plus speed, untapped raw power, and a good but not great throwing arm. He’s a joy to watch on the bases and his defense is excellent in centerfield, although some think he has the natural fielding actions to make a move to second base a possibility. He is expected to be the veteran anchor in a Fullerton outfield where he’ll be flanked by freshman Anthony Hutting and two-way sophomore Tyler Pill, and backed up by Casey Watkins and Ivory Thomas, a pair of promising freshmen. Continued development could push him up into the late first round, but his most likely draft ceiling is late supplemental first/early second. I’m not saying he is a better baseball player than teammate Christian Colon, but I think the gap is much closer than the majority of people think. In fact, I think Brown’s superior tools actually make him a better bet to be a well above-average player than Colon.

JR OF Ridge Carpenter (2010 – Cal State Northridge) is a big personal favorite. He has a five-tool ceiling, with speed and potential plus defense in center being his calling cards. His good approach, in addition to the aforementioned speed, make him a potential leadoff hitter, but his game is much more than the slash and dash style so many other college leadoff hitters employ. He has enough current pop — his .679 slugging percentage trumped his next closest junior college teammate by a whopping 185 points, how’s that for context? – and a big league frame (6-2, 190) that make me think his easy swing will continue to generate power as he gets more reps against top level pitching. He has what it takes to be a top five round player, I think.

JR OF Mark Haddow (2010 – UC Santa Barbara) offers up plus power potential, but also strikeouts about as much as you’d expected from a raw college player with plus power potential. Luckily, power isn’t his only claim to fame. Haddow can also rely on his solid athleticism, better than you’d think speed, and slightly above-average big league right field arm. He has the raw tools to dramatically rise up draft boards, but first needs to take a more disciplined approach at the plate to show big league clubs he’d cut it as something more than a backup outfielder professionally. If he begins even to hint at improvement in those deficient areas in his game, I’d bet good money some team out there will draft him with the idea that he’ll be a big league starter in right someday.

JR OF Nick Longmire (2010 – Pacific) is an above-average athlete who has demonstrated good range in centerfield. If you’ve read enough of these blurbs, you’d know that the combination of athleticism and good defense in center can give a prospect a huge head start on the competition. Longmire takes his head start and runs with it. He has above-average power potential, good bat speed, and success with wood bats from summer league play. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder capable of doing a little bit of everything pretty well. I’ve heard a Jay Payton comp thrown his way and, despite Payton’s far more decorated collegiate career, I don’t think I hate it from a tools standpoint.

SR OF Luke Yoder (2010 – Cal Poly) was a gymnast for 13 years. Now that we’ve got that bit out of the way, we can talk about Yoder the ballplayer. His strong points include a good power/patience blend, heady base running, and, yes, impressive athleticism due in no small part to all those years on the balance beam. The case against his prospectdom include his age (he’ll turn 23 one month after the draft) and his sometimes shaky outfield defense. As a mid- to late-round senior sign, he’d make sense for a team looking for a potentially quick moving backup outfielder/AAAA bench bat depth piece. It’s also important to note that Yoder has been drafted twice already

JR OF Brett Morgan (2010 – UC Davis) joins the Aggies after two seasons at San Joaquin Delta College, where he’ll go from being coached by one brother (Reed Peters) to another (Rex Peters). Now that we’ve got our fun fact quota for the day out of the way, let’s talk about this talented juco transfer. Morgan is another player that fits the classic leadoff hitter archetype – plus speed, good approach at the plate, solid hit tool, and good defense up the middle. I’ve heard really good things about him, but we’re obviously in wait-and-see mode until he actually gets some big time college at bats.

SR OF Michael Hur (2010 – UC Riverside) has had scouts eagerly waiting on his power potential for years now, finally breaking through last season. However, questions still linger about whether it was the first step toward a continued power surge or a fluky one year spike. There have been enough concerns from those smarter than I that Hur doesn’t have the physical strength to ever be much more than the occasional gap power hitter professionally. I suppose to take that viewpoint would be to make the claim that last season was a power outlier. On top of that, Hur doesn’t really have any standout tools to speak of. He has average range and a decent throwing arm. He’ll be a late round senior sign.

JR OF Todd Eskelin (2010 – Cal State Northridge) only has a limited of college at bats to his credit, but it hasn’t stopped him from producing when called upon. Real above-average power potential is there, but it’ll be interesting to see if his swing for the fences approach works once pitchers get more of a read on his strengths and weaknesses. Without much else to say, how about checking out a funny typo from the “Personal” section of the Cal State Northridge website? There it informs us that Eskelin’s “favorites include television show ‘Smallville’ and eggs.” I had a roommate in college who Netflixed every episode of Smallville (pretty sure he had a crush on Tom Welling), but I never got into it; Eggs on the other hand, now that’s quality TV.

SR OF TJ Mittelstaedt (2010 – Long Beach State) might be able to play second base professionally, a potential boon to his erstwhile lackluster draft standing. He has a strong arm, good present power, and good plate discipline, but the real key in differentiating himself from so many similar college outfielders will be whether or not a team wants to gamble on him as an infielder.

JR OF Ryan Fisher (2010 – UC Irvine) has a good frame (6-3, 210), steady college production, good power, and a nice swing. He’s yet another non-starter in the corner outfield, so his value is inherently limited. However, all of that changes quickly if he can play third base or second base as some think. Fisher as a left fielder…no thanks. Fisher as a second baseman…I’m intrigued.

SR OF Cory Olson (2010 – UC Irvine) is a good defender, shows solid leadoff hitter skills (great approach, decent speed) and enough pop to keep pitchers honest. His tools cup doesn’t runneth over, but he is a well-rounded player that offers enough in the way of secondary skills to make him a worthwhile prospect to watch. I also happen to like this quote: “It sounds simple, but I try to only swing at strikes and pitches in the zone of my swing,” said Olson. “If I get a hit, I get a hit, and if I get out, I get out. I don’t put pressure on myself. I see through the ball and let the bat do the work.” Any player more focused on process than results is alright in my book.

SR OF Adam Melker (2010 – Cal Poly) has shown decent gap power, a good approach at the plate, and versatility in the field. He’s a step behind fellow Big West senior outfielders Michael Hur (better tools) and TJ Mittelstaedt (might be able to play second), but still in the running for a late round senior sign draft selection.

JR OF DJ Gentile (2010 – Cal Poly) gets the lightning round treatment. Shows some promise with the bat! Once a 43^rd round pick of Cleveland! Not a good defender!

SR OF Sean Madigan (2010 – UC Irvine) returns to action this spring after missing almost all of 2009 with an injury. He put up decent numbers his first two seasons, flashing the occasional power and decent all-around tools. He’s a long shot to get drafted, but it’ll come down to his senior year production more than anything.

JR OF Christian Ramirez (2010 – UC Irvine) has some pop, some patience, some speed, and some pretty nothing special pretty uninspiring defensive scouting reports. I bet we’ll have a similar conversation about Ramirez this time next year.

SR OF Dillon Bell (2010 – UC Irvine) has one of the prettiest lefthanded swings in all of college baseball. Beautiful swing, decent production…something doesn’t quite add up there. His value will be tied up almost entirely in his bat, so the production needs to take a jump from decent to fantastic if he wants to get drafted late.

JR OF Derek Eligio (2010 – UC Santa Barbara) flashed some pop, above-average speed, and impressive range in center while at Santa Ana College, above-average speed. Scouts and coaches have both said he improved markedly from his freshman to his sophomore season, so there is some hope he’ll see another jump in offensive output in 2010.

JR OF Jono Grayson (2010 – Cal Poly) gets a mention here as a potential late round flier. The accomplished slotback, wide receiver, and return man will attempt to crack the Cal Poly outfield in 2010. He has a good high school track record, but is currently slated to start off as a backup. His plus athleticism makes him a name worth storing away in the deepest darkest recesses in your mind.

SR OF Ryan Tregoning (2010 – UC Santa Barbara) is a big guy (6-3, 200) who had an accomplished junior college career, coming to Santa Barbara with a strong reputation as a hitter. He was more aggressive than expected with Santa Barbara in 2009, getting away from his patient juco ways.  If he can get himself more regular playing time in 2010, it’ll be interesting to see if he goes back to waiting on something to drive rather than hacking away at the first ball within eight inches off the plate. Even if he reverts back to the patient, powerful junior college version of himself questions will remain about what else he offers besides a bat.

Updated Top Fifty 2010 MLB Prospect Big Board

1. Bryce Harper – C – College of Southern Nevada
2. Jameson Taillon – RHSP – The Woodlands HS (TX)
3. AJ Cole – RHSP – Oviedo HS (FL)

It would take something pretty funny to happen this spring to knock either Harper or Taillon off of their comfortable 1-2 perch in my rankings. Harper’s numbers (.362/.426/.681 at CSN through 47 at bats) don’t even begin to tell the whole story of how damn impressive he has looked so far. I mean, come on, have you seen the triple yet? Kid can move a little bit for a big guy, right? All of the backlash against Harper so far has been founded entirely on one of two premises – 1) no 17 year-old should be getting this kind of ridiculous hype, and/or 2) in a given year there are close to 1500 prospects drafted, so why is that the only player I ever read about on the websites for ESPN/SI/MAJOR SPORTS MEDIA GIANT OF YOUR CHOOSING is this Bryce Harper kid? Overexposed is not a synonym for overrated. That’ll be my non-stop mantra until June, especially so long as Harper throws up a .350/.425/.600+ line, so better get used to it now.

Hey, remember the last time we had pre-draft scouting reports on a high school pitcher with the last name Cole? Plus fastball, plus potential breaking ball, average change, projectable frame? All of that applies to AJ Cole as well, I think. Harper and Taillon get the majority of the attention at the top of the draft (and rightfully so), but Cole’s upside makes him the third best prospect in the draft by a good measure.

4. Nick Castellanos – 3B – Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
5. Austin Wilson – OF – Harvard Westlake HS (CA)

I’m unabashedly in love with the potential Castellanos has shown at the plate. With the way he has dropped down the experts’ boards this winter, I’m starting to feel all alone in my adoration. Wouldn’t be the first time. Reservations about his defense keep me from fawning incessantly about his pro potential — obviously his stock takes a dip if he is a 1B and not a 3B, a judgment that I’m not really qualified to make at this point in time — but I’m otherwise blinded by the beauty of his swing. I feel similarly about Wilson’s five-tool upside. As I said in the January Mock, Wilson could be this year’s Donovan Tate or Wilson could be this year’s Brian Goodwin. Too early to tell at this point, though my aggressive ranking tips my hand a bit.

6. Deck McGuire – RHSP – Georgia Tech
7. Brandon Workman – RHSP – Texas
8. James Paxton – LHSP – Kentucky?

Three college arms (or “college,” in Paxton’s case) above Anthony Ranaudo? What’s up with that? McGuire has the best three-pitch mix of any 2010 pitcher, Workman has an elite fastball and curve combination with room to grow, and Paxton possesses the best lefthanded stuff in the class.

9. Zack Cox – 3B – Arkansas
10. Chris Sale – LHSP – Florida Gulf Coast
11. Kyle Blair – RHSP – San Diego

Sale and Blair ranked over Ranaudo is a little harder to understand than McGuire, Workman, and Paxton, but let me try to explain the rationale. Sale’s another pitcher with a quality three-pitch mix and plus fastball command. Blair is similar to Workman in that both pitchers have already flashed special stuff, but still have huge amounts of untapped potential. As for Ranaudo, well, here is a quick breakdown on his stuff, based on what I’ve seen: fastball – good velocity, very good command, too straight at times; changeup – good velocity separation, good sink, underutilized; curveball – very good pitch when it is good, very hittable pitch when it isn’t, inconsistent velocity, shape, and command, but definite plus potential. Here’s something on Ranaudo I’ve been meaning to publish in the College Team Profile: LSU. It still needs some editing, but here goes nothing:

Everybody saw him when he was at his relative worst, completely worn down and exhibiting diminished velocity during the College World Series. His heater was sitting only in the upper-80s and the sharpness on his 12-6 curveball, the secondary offering generally considered his finest, was noticeably absent. I caught Ranaudo for the first time during the middle of conference play last season and came away impressed. His fastball was 91-93 MPH consistently, hitting as 94 at its peak. Many outlets regard his curve as a superior pitch to his change, but Ranaudo’s 82-84 MPH sinking changeup impressed as much as his high-70s curve, a pitch that flattened out too often and stayed consistently up in the zone.

In fact, the one thing I’d love to see first addressed with Ranaudo as a professional is his tendency to leave balls up. Darn near everything he threw, especially his fastballs and curves, were left up. Ranaudo is 6-7, 220 pounds and should be able to us e his frame to his advantage when attempting to generate a more favorable downward plane on his pitches. In fact, don’t be shocked to hear many of the experts assume that the big righty gets that great downward movement and the ensuing groundball outs that come with it. It’s a fine theory and one that will be correct more often than not, but in this instance it’s wrong. My quick 2009 GO/AO ratio using the publicly available data for Ranaudo is 0.71. That number would be best compared against all pitchers that make up the college ball landscape, but, alas, we’re stuck making an assumption of our own in lieu of spending far too much time and energy ginning up all that data. The assumption here is that 0.71, a number that more or less says Ranaudo induced 100 air outs for every 71 groundball out, makes the big LSU righty a pretty clear flyball pitcher.

All of the “non-skill” stuff with Ranaudo grades out as excellent. He gets high praise for his competitive makeup, he is an above-average athlete who prides himself on staying in tremendous baseball shape, and the LSU coaching staff has widely acknowledged his receptiveness to learning as much as possible about what it takes to be a big game pitcher. He had a healthy sophomore year, but it is still possible questions linger in the minds of clubs worried about the two missed months his freshman year due to tendinitis in his right elbow. Another season of healthy, dominant baseball in the SEC should put a lot of the haters’ (like me) doubts to bed.

It isn’t that I don’t like Ranaudo as a prospect, it’s just that I like a few of the other prospects in his class a little bit better.

12. Anthony Ranaudo – RHSP – LSU
13. Jesse Hahn – RHSP – Virginia Tech
14. Drew Pomeranz – LHSP – Mississippi

Hahn is only this high up based on the assumption/belief that he’ll continue to pitch well as a starter this spring. His performance as a starter on the Cape probably shouldn’t overshadow two iffy seasons out of the bullpen collegiately, but I’m a sucker for big fastballs, projectable frames, and high-K guys. Pomeranz isn’t particularly similar to Andy Oliver from last year, but I could see the lefthander having a draft day drop reminiscent to Oliver’s fall to the second round in 2009.

15. Cam Bedrosian – RHSP – East Coweta HS (GA)
16. Bryce Brentz – RF – Middle Tennessee State
17. Dylan Covey – RHSP – Maranatha HS (CA)
18. Kaleb Cowart – RHSP/3B – Cook County HS (GA)
19. Stetson Allie – RHSP – St. Edward HS (OH)
20. Karsten Whitson – RHSP – Chipley HS (FL)

The Top 20 is rounded out by a grouping that includes five of the best young righthanded amateur arms in the country. I love Bedrosian, ranking him higher than just about anybody and happy to have him as my third highest ranked prep righty after Taillon and Cole. His power stuff and potential for a decent change make me a believer. As for the other pitchers, here’s something grom my look at the Top 10 High School Righthanded Pitching Prospects back in December. Not a whole lot has changed my mind about them one way or another at this point, except for maybe beginning to wonder if Cowart’s future is not on the mound. I still think he has more upside as a pitcher than as a third baseman, but that’ll be worked out in the spring.

Covey, Cowart, Allie, and Whitson form a pretty logical quartet of high school arms. All four are big fellas (Covey is the shrimp of the group at a round, but athletic 6-2, 200 pounds), with big fastballs (all four have hit at least 95 on the gun at one point or another), and big questions that could define them come draft day. Covey, my current favorite of the four, has the easiest questions (inconsistent mechanics and command, plus a less than idea young pitcher body type) to answer going forward, especially when you consider how far he has come to answer one of those questions (his command has looked sharper every time I’ve seen him) already. Whitson, currently ranked fourth in this little subgroup, has a potential dynamite 1-2 punch with his fastball (sitting 91-93, hitting 95-96) and slider (works best in the mid-80s, but has shown up as a less effective slurvy high-70s CB at times), but I think his mechanics will need something pretty close to a complete overhaul as a professional. Cowart has grown on me just as much as a hitter than as a pitcher lately, but his potential on the mound is still vast. Cowart is as likely as anybody on the list to shoot up to the top of the subgroup and could, I stress could, actually challenge the more established top two if everything breaks right. Everything Cowart throws moves downward, from his sharp high-80s slider to his low-80s split-fingered changeup. Allie has the most electric arm of the foursome, but has been plagued by up and down command and control throughout his career on the high school showcase circuit. He also doesn’t have quite the secondary stuff as some of his contemporaries.

21. Matt Harvey – RHSP – North Carolina

I was stubborn with both Sean Black and Robert Stock last year, keeping their rankings higher than most had them because I couldn’t let go of the upside they had once shown as high schoolers. If I swing and miss with my equally stubborn Harvey ranking this year, I think it’ll be time to rethink my stance on prep stars turned disappointing college players. For now, however, I’ll remain blockheaded enough to keep Harvey up near the Top 20. I need college prospects to show three average or better big league pitches to convince me that they can start professionally. Harvey has shown, at various points in his development, that he has an above-average to plus fastball, an above-average to plus curve, and an average to above-average sinking changeup. Of course, he has also shown below-average fastball velocity, inconsistent curves, and a babied change. I said this during the January Mock and it holds up pretty well now – “If the right scouting director sees him on the right day, he’ll go high. If not, he’ll be lumped in with the rest of the college guys who project as relievers hoping to get a spot in the first five rounds.” I’ve been lucky to personally see him throw on the right days, but I’m not about to turn a blind eye toward his inconsistency.

22. Tony Wolters – SS – Rancho Buena Vista HS (CA)
23. Stefan Sabol – C – Aliso Niguel HS (CA)

Two prep players currently at the top of their respective position lists. Many downgrade the pair because they don’t think either will last in their spots defensively, but not me.

24. Sammy Solis – LHSP – San Diego
25. Alex Wimmers – RHSP – Ohio State

The strength of the draft really comes through when you see players of this quality falling this far down the list. It’s not hard to envision a slew of high school players performing well enough this spring to push some of the quality college talent out of the back of the first round. What a coup that would be for the teams drafting in the supplemental first and/or early second round.

26. LeVon Washington – CF – Chipola College
27. Christian Colon – SS – Cal State Fullerton

Wolters and Sabol are a pair that I have higher than most; Washington and Colon represent the opposite end of that spectrum. I love Washington’s tools (plus speed, plus arm, plus range in CF), but still question the long-term prognosis with the stick. Colon is more good than great across the board, and I’d prefer a higher upside prospect if I was drafting high in the first round. Again, I should point out that I’m probably underrating how valuable a potentially league average (or even better, according to those higher on his tools than I) shortstop really is.

28. Justin O’Conner – SS/C – Cowan HS (IN)
29. Manny Machado – SS – Brito Private HS (FL)

Of all the players here in the bottom half of the Top 30, O’Conner has the best chance of any prospect to rise up into the top half. Even now I’m wondering why it is I had Wolters above him in the first place. I’m really late to taking a liking to Machado because, quite honestly, I view him as being pretty close to a high school version of Colon. High probability of sticking at short, but no ridiculous tools that make you stand up and take notice. Steady, not spectacular. I’m beginning to come around and see the value in steady, but I’ll never totally stop lusting after spectacular.

30. Jarrett Parker – CF – Virginia
31. Rob Brantly – C – UC Riverside

Two college guys with legit production against high-level competition, in addition to impressive toolsets. Toolsy + Productive = First Round Grade. I also like my comps on each player, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise coming from an egomaniac such as myself. Jarrett Parker = Lastings Milledge. Rob Brantly = Derek Norris. Genius!

32. AJ Vanegas – RHSP – Redwood Christian HS (CA)
33. DeAndre Smelter – RHSP – Tatnall Square Academy (GA)
34. Brian Ragira – OF – James Martin HS (TX)

Ragira is a volatile prospect with loads of upside who should have enough defensive value to remain worthwhile even if the bat doesn’t develop as expected. He also has the best full name in the entire draft – Brian Aosa Mogaka Ragira. Vanegas can throw four pitches for strikes, a rare and beautiful thing for a high schooler. The Smelter = Kevin Brown comp is beginning to gain steam, based largely on Smelter’s outstanding power arsenal highlighted by Brown’s signature pitch, a deadly 82-84 MPH splitter.

35. Justin Grimm – RHSP – Georgia
36. Sam Dyson – RHSP – South Carolina
37. Gary Brown – CF – Cal State Fullerton

I’m almost done a brief writeup on Gary Brown for the Top 2010 Draft-Eligible Big West Outfielder piece, but I’ll throw out some of my unedited notes to fill the void until I polish everything up. Here’s the basic idea, in wonderful comp form. As you can see, I’m pretty high on the guy…

Watching Brown play reminds me of watching any number of successful big league players. He resembles Shane Victorino for his defensive range in center, plus speed, and intriguing power/speed combo; I see some Chone Figgins (pre-2009 breakout, mostly) in the way he’ll be an incredibly valuable player due to defensive versatility despite having only an average arm; at his very best, I see some young Johnny Damon, especially if his power potential comes around the way I expect.

I had Dyson 19th on my personal Big Board heading into the 2009 draft, by the way.

38. Drew Cisco – RHSP – Wando HS (FL)
39. Leon Landry – CF – LSU
40. Rick Hague – SS – Rice
41. Aaron Sanchez – RHSP – Barstow HS (CA)

Love Hague’s defense, but still see too many holes in his bat to envision him putting up consistently acceptable contact rates professionally. Landry could be 2009 first round pick Jared Mitchell with more power. Cisco’s bloodlines give him a huge leg up on the mental side of pitching, a nice advantage to have when many of the high school righthanders are so tightly bunched. Cisco’s cerebral approach, plus command, and, you guessed it, above-average potential with three different pitches make him a prospect worth watching. Many scoff at his underwhelming present fastball velocity, however. We’ll see.

42. Kevin Jacob – RHRP – Georgia Tech
43. Derek Dietrich – 3B – Georgia Tech

A pair of Yellow Jackets with solid upsides and reasonably high floors; Jacob is the top ranked pure reliever on the list, and Dietrich is a good bet to be a steady everyday third baseman professionally. Natural comparisons between Dietrich and former Georgia Tech third baseman Wes Hodges make sense, but, despite very similar production, I think Dietrich has superior tools.

44. Kris Bryant – 3B – Bonanza HS  (NV)
45. Kolbrin Vitek – 3B/2B – Ball State
46. Josh Sale – OF – Bishop Blanchet HS (WA)
47. Rob Segedin – 3B – Tulane

Including Dietrich, this now makes 4 of the last 5 players on the list third basemen. Weird. Bryant gets compared often to Troy Glaus, a really good comp based on body type, raw power potential, and defensive skillset. Offensively, however, I think the player his absolute ceiling professionally matches up closest with is Arizona’s Mark Reynolds. That’s some serious upside, but the gap between where Bryant currently is and where he needs to be is gigantic. Vitek reminds me of Bryce Brentz without a publicist, but another big college season will finally get the kid his proper due. Segedin will get his fair share of digital ink this spring, beginning with a nice little writeup on this very site in Friday’s Draft Notebook.

48. Blake Forsythe – C – Tennessee
49. Yordy Cabrera – SS – Lakeland HS (FL)
50. Victor Sanchez – 3B – San Diego

Forsythe is my kind of player – patience and power combined with more power and a little extra patience. Anecdotally it seems that teams tend to reach on third basemen on draft day (no idea if this is true or not, I need to check recent draft history one of these days), so Sanchez could hear his name called a round or two earlier than many currently project. I like him as a draft prospect more than most, but that goes back to my undying love of highly skilled prep players with disappointing college resumes. I actually got some really positive news on Yordy Cabrera this very morning, so now I’m already regretting dropping him this far down. If there is one high school player in the draft I’d love to see play in person, it would be Yordy.