The Baseball Draft Report
Archive for February 2009
All Sophomore Prospect Team (Class of ’10)
A handy tip for those who have a hard time meeting self-imposed deadlines – making your schedule public makes it a heck of a lot easier to stick to. Remember this?
Monday: (2/16): All Freshman Prospect Team
Tuesday (2/17): All Sophomore Prospect Team
Wednesday (2/18): All Senior Prospect Team
Thursday (2/19): All Draft-Eligible Sophomore Prospect Team AND All Junior Prospect Team
Friday (2/20): College Opening Day Hip-Hop Pizza Party featuring the debut of The Baseball Draft Report 2009 College Prospect Big Board
No matter what happens this week, I’m sticking to this darned schedule. If today is Tuesday, that means it is All Sophomore Prospect Team Day! The players listed below are all, as far as I know, draft-eligible as of the 2010 season. There are no redshirt sophomores on the list — the 2009-eligible sophomores will get their own list — only players eligible for the 2010 draft. Something about this class really appeals to me, so I went a little overboard with some of the writeups. Enjoy the All Sophomore Prospect Team after the jump…
Schedule (2/16 – 2/20)
As alluded to in the post prior, this is going to be one heck of a week around here. Our first annual Baseball Draft Report College Preview Blowout Extravaganza is here and we’ve finally got the schedule laid out. Here’s the plan for the next few days:
Monday: (2/16): All Freshman Prospect Team
Tuesday (2/17): All Sophomore Prospect Team
Wednesday (2/18): All Senior Prospect Team
Thursday (2/19): All Draft-Eligible Sophomore Prospect Team AND All Junior Prospect Team
Friday (2/20): College Opening Day Hip-Hop Pizza Party featuring the debut of The Baseball Draft Report 2009 College Prospect Big Board
We start things out slowly with prospect teams chock full of players to watch in the coming years, but gain steam by mid-week as we delve into actual 2009 draft-eligible players on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday is the big day as we unveil our first iteration of the BDR2009CPBB…yeah, we’re still working on a better name for that, but it should be good. Baseball is back, let’s celebrate.
College Baseball 2009 – All Freshman Prospect Team (Class of ’11)
The regular season college baseball season begins this Friday, February 20th – I know, I can’t believe it either. Content this week is going to be extremely college-centric because, quite honestly, college opening day really can sneak up on a guy. Lots and lots and lots of college content this week, so be forewarned.
To celebrate the return of baseball into our everyday lives, let’s take a stroll around the college baseball landscape and see what we see. What better starting point than the youngest of the young, the players with that wonderful new-ballplayer scent, the college freshmen? After the jump, enjoy a sampling of some of the finest freshmen — non-draft-eligible, although some listed players are actually part of the 2010 draft class — to watch this season…
Breaking News: Josh Fields Signs, ’09 Draft Order Altered Ever So Slightly
The news isn’t really breaking, but a headline like that really packs a punch. Former Georgia Bulldog closer Josh Fields is the newest member of the Seattle Mariner organization after reportedly agreeing to terms yesterday. Nobody — well, neither player nor team — is talking about the agreement just yet, but it is widely believed to be a done deal. So, what does it all mean? Check out the updated draft order (first round only) after the jump…but not before our sickeningly sweet Valentine’s Day photo sets the mood…
Photo Credit: English Corner
Three Things
Delaying a “real” post for yet another day with, what else, three random things bouncing around my brain of late. I mean, what’s the point of having your own site if you can’t post your own meandering, disjointed thoughts from time to time? And tell me you aren’t intrigued with some stranger’s random draft musings after seeing THIS:
Photo Credit: IGN
After the jump, cartoons, big leaguers, and, of course, draft-eligibles…
Junior College 2009: All Prospect Team
We’ve covered a litle bit of high school so far. We have a lot more prep coverage in the works. We’ve covered a tiny, tiny bit of college ball so far. There will be a ton more of that to come. What we’ve ignored thus far, unintentionally of course, is the all too often ignored grey area of draft prospecting. I mean, and let’s be honest here, who among us can truly say that he or she knew the 2009 junior college baseball season has already started? We shall ignore the juco ranks no longer! After the jump, enjoy the best prospects — by position, naturally — currently on junior college rosters.
Photo Credit: Reuters Pictures
Looking Forward to the Past
Catchy title, right? There’s not quite enough there to keep it from being pretty much meaningless, but it’s just snappy enough to somehow appear superficially deep. A long time ago, a wise man was heard to remark, “In order to look forward, we must first reconcile what we’ve learned from the past.” Alright, a wise man didn’t actually say that. Unless you consider me a wise man, something I promise you yourselves would be wise not to do. And it wasn’t said a long time ago either. Not unless thirty seconds constitutes a long time, that is. There was a point here, I promise.
Photo Credit: There Were Ten Tigers
Oh, right. In lieu of following my own not-so-strict personal content schedule, I thought we’d instead wrap up our look at the ’09 prep righthanders by comparing this year’s class of high school pitching with the 2008 group. We’re looking back at the past to learn a little something about the future. I love it when it all comes full circle like that. No conclusions can really be drawn on data (such as it is) one year out of a draft class’s debut, so this exercise is more about the casual talent comparison of the ’08 prep righties and the ’09 class. One thing it is definitely NOT about is filling time and space with a quick and easy post because other more substantive stuff isn’t quite ready. No sirs and madams, that’s not it all…
2008 Prep Righthanded Pitchers – Personal Top 15 [as of 6/08]
1. Ethan Martin
2. Alex Meyer
3. Gerrit Cole
4. Ross Seaton
5. Jake Odorizzi
6. Zeke Spruill
7. Tim Melville
8. Kyle Wieland
9. Michael Palazzone
10. Jason Knapp
11. Daniel Webb
12. Tyler Sample
13. Sonny Gray
14. Trey Haley
15. Tyler Chatwood
Elite athleticism and evidence of a plus or potential plus breaking ball were big-time considerations in making up this list. The highest pick of the group was Ethan Martin (15th overall). The lowest pick of the group was Sonny Gray (821st overall). There were 2 first rounders, 1 supplemental first rounder, 3 second rounders, 1 supplemental second rounder, 1 third rounder, 1 supplemental third rounder, 2 fourth rounders, 1 twelfth rounder, 1 eighteenth rounder, 1 twentieth rounder, and 1 twenty-seventh rounder.
Martin and Cole were first rounders. Odorizzi was a supplemental first rounder. Chatwood, Haley, and Knapp were second rounders. Spruill was a supplemental second rounder. Sample was a third rounder. Seaton was a supplemental third rounder. Wieland and Melville were 4th rounders. Webb was a 12th rounder. Palazzone was an 18th rounder. Alex Meyer was a 20th rounder, and Sonny Gray was a 27th rounder.
Quick Observations: 9/15 went in the first three rounds, 6/15 fell far further than talent dictated due to signability concerns (Cole, Melville, Webb, Palazzone, Meyer, and Gray – all but Melville went the college/junior college route), and twelfth is a very weird looking word in print…
2008 Prep Righthanded Pitchers Picked in the First Five Rounds (Players Not in My Top 15)
Jordan Lyles
Seth Lintz
Kevin Eichorn
Jonathan Pettibone
Curtis Petersen
Tyler Cline
Trevor May
Maverick Lasker
Lyles went in the supplemental first round. Lintz went in the second round. Eichorn went in the third. Pettibone went in the third round (supplemental). Petersen, Cline, and May went in the fourth round. Lasker went in the fifth.
My Island Players – the players nobody, including many scouting directors, seemed to like nearly as much as I did
Ryan O’Sullivan
Jordan Cooper
Austin Dicharry
Kyle Winkler
Matt Magill
O’Sullivan wasn’t entirely unloved, he was a 10th round pick. Cooper, Winkler, and Magill had various degrees of success on draft day – they went in the 17th, 37th, and 31st rounds, respectively. Dicharry went undrafted and is now a freshman on the Texas pitching staff.
Note: the island player list isn’t the BS list you’ll see in other places. I mean, come on – “I had [consensus top five round talent] as my big sleeper!” isn’t really going out on that big a limb, you know? It’s good to have favorite guys like that, but you need to admit that they aren’t exactly the deepest of sleepers to anybody who regularly follows this stuff. So much of prospecting (the business side of it, that is) is about exploiting casual fans that don’t regularly follow the dregs of baseball (minors and draft) by sensationalizing the idea of “under the radar” players. I promise to stay away from that here, but, if I slip up, please please please call me out on it.
Stacking up the ’09′s with the ’08′s
Here was our top 15 2009′s: Shelby Miller, Jacob Turner, Mychal Givens, Zack Wheeler, Scott Griggs, Keyvius Sampson, Brooks Pounders, Daniel Tuttle, Mark Appel, Matt Graham, Michael Heller, Brody Colvin, Chris Jenkins, Ethan Carter, Jordan Cooper
The top 15 2008′s were listed above. So, if we had to put the lists together and rank them as if they were one great big giant class, who would go where? A very rough guess might look something like this (2009′s in bold):
1. Ethan Martin
2. Alex Meyer
3. Shelby Miller
4. Gerrit Cole
5. Ross Seaton
6. Jake Odorizzi
7. Zeke Spruill
8. Tim Melville
9. Jacob Turner
10. Mychal Givens
11. Zack Wheeler
12. Scott Griggs
13. Keyvius Sampson
14. Brooks Pounders
15. Kyle Wieland
16. Michael Palazzone
17. Jason Knapp
18. Daniel Webb
19. Tyler Sample
20. Sonny Gray
Only 7 of the top 20 from the combined list are 2009′s. This blows my theory that the 2009 class looks stronger (at this point) right on out of the water. I won’t lie – part of the reason I wanted to compare the two classes was to “prove” that the 2009 class was superior. Seeing the list above really brings the following point home: coming to a conclusion and then working backwards to prove it is a bad, bad idea. The list also illuminates the absurdity of ranking high school pitchers so early in the process. One of the reasons I think there are more 2008′s on the list is simple – there’s more data to judge them on, and thus less fear of the unknown. Matt Graham, Chris Jenkins, Ethan Carter…those guys could shoot up the list with big springs, much like some of the guys in 2008 did before them.
2009 MLB Draft: Top High School Righthanded Pitching Cheatsheet
To make organization around these parts a little bit easier, here is a list of 32 high school righthanded pitchers worth knowing so far. Players already covered appear both in bold and in parentheses. Each player’s info is displayed using the following basic format:
Name, height, weight, fastball velocity, other pitches — slider, curveball, changeup, etc., miscelleaneous information
The list of players to watch will surely grow between now and June, but this ought to serve as a decent resource for the time being.
- (Mark Appel, 6-4, 185, FB: peak 92, SL, CU)
- Jake Barrett, 6-3, 225, FB: peak 91, sits upper-80s, CB, CU, good young power hitter
- Justin Bellez, 6-1, 180, FB: peak 92, SL: 10/4, CU, repeatable easy mechanics
- Bryan Berglund, 6-3, 175, FB: 89-91, SL: [+] 81-86, CU
- (Ethan Carter, 6-5, 205, FB: peak 90-91, SL: mid-70s, CU: low-80s, cut fastball)
- (Brody Colvin, 6-4, 190, FB: 90-93, CB: 10/4, CU)
- (Jordan Cooper, 6-1, 195, FB: peak 91, CB/SL: [+] potential, injury history)
- Michael Dedrick, 6-3, 185, FB: low-90s, CB: [+]
- Dylan Floro, 6-1, 175, FB: peak 92, CB, SL, CU, four average or above pitch guy
- (Mychal Givens, 6-1, 185, FB: peak 96-98, SL, CU, excellent sinker)
- Garrett Gould, 6-4, 195, FB: 88-91, CB: 12/6, 81, spike, CU: 78-80, above average command and pitchability
- (Matt Graham, 6-3, 195, FB: peak 94, CB)
- (Scott Griggs, 6-2, 185, FB: sits low-90s, peak 95, plus command and makeup)
- Brooks Hall, 6-5, 200, FB: 90-92, SL, CU, sound delivery
- (Michael Heller, 6-2, 180, FB: sits 90-93, peak 95, CB, CU: 75)
- Matt Hobgood, 6-4, 240, FB: sits 91-93, peak 95, good hitter
- (Chris Jenkins, 6-7, 235, FB: sits 91-93, peak 94, SL: [+] potential, command issues, high effort delivery)
- Matt Koch, 6-3, 185, FB: 88-91, SL, CB, CU, raw mechanics
- (Shelby Miller, 6-3, 195, FB: sits 91-93, peak 94, CB: mid-70s, CU: 80, SL, holds velocity late, exceptional balance, heavy fastball)
- James Needy, 6-6, 195, FB: low-90s, CB, SL, CU
- Keifer Nuncio, 6-2, 195, FB: peak 91, CB, CU
- (Brooks Pounders, 6-5, 220, FB: peak 94, CB: [+] potential, plus hitter)
- David Renfroe, 6-3, 180, FB: 88-92, CB: 12/6, clean and easy mechanics, plus athlete
- Felix Roque, 6-5, 200, FB: 88-91, SL: [+], CU, heavy sinker
- (Keyvius Sampson, 6-1, 185,FB: low-90s, peak 95, CB: low-80s, CU: potential [+], clean delivery, plus athlete)
- Trent Stevenson, 6-6, 165, FB: 86-90, SL: 73-78,
- Chad Thompson, 6-8, 215, FB: sits 90-93, peak 94, CB, CU, SF: potential [+]
- (Jacob Turner, 6-4, 205, FB: peak 93/94, CB: [+] pitch in mid-70s, CU: circle change, clean mechanics, good command)
- (Daniel Tuttle, 6-2, 185, FB: sits 90-93, peak 94, SL: 10/4 [+] pitch, sinker)
- (Zack Wheeler, 6-4, 180, FB: peak 95, SL: potential [+], low-80s, CB, splitter)
- Zack Von Rosenberg, 6-5, 200, FB: 88-91, CB: mid-70s, CU: high-70s, good mechanics
- Madison Younginer, 6-3, 185, FB: low-90s, peak 94, CU: sinking action, CB
2009 MLB Draft: Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (Number 1)
Finally, the top high school righthanded pitcher in the 2009 draft class. Because we’ve already spoiled the surprise in the title, let’s get right down to it. Before we do that, here’s the rest of the list:
Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (15 thru 11)
Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (10 thru 6)
Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (5 thru 2)
1. Shelby Miller – Brownwood HS (Texas)
Miller has established himself as the premier high school righthanded pitcher of the 2009 draft class. While Miller is an outstanding prospect who carries a no doubt about it first round grade, the distinction as best high school righthanded pitcher doesn’t carry quite the same weight this year as it may have carried in years past. Unlike the gargantuan distance between the top two high school lefthanders and the rest of the prep lefty field, there is very little that separates the “elite” group of high school righties from the rest of the group. I wonder if that’s a byproduct of the very nature of what makes up a “high school righthanded pitching prospect.” Or maybe this particular class of high school righthanders just so happens to have a whole bunch of similarly talented players. I don’t know. What I do know is that the 2009 high school righthanders are a talented bunch headed up by a pretty exciting young player in Shelby Miller. Miller is just one of five high school righthanders that currently carry near-consensus first round grades, a list that also includes Jacob Turner, Mychal Givens, Zack Wheeler, and Scott Griggs. Miller is also one of a whopping seven pitchers that I personally consider first round caliber talents out of this group – the five aforementioned arms, plus Keyvius Sampson and Brooks Pounders, should be first rounders come June when it all comes together for them this spring.
No picture before the jump, but instead words of empirically juiced up wisdom from a man much smarter than I. The three groups referred to here are high school pitchers, college pitchers, and college hitters, by the way. Read, ponder, and then kindly check out more on the top prep righty after the jump…
Draft Rule #8: There is virtually no difference whatsoever in the value of the other three groups of draft picks. In particular, it is no longer apparent that high school pitchers, even in the first round, are significantly riskier than either high school hitters or college pitchers.
From 1992 to 1999, pitchers out of college returned 14.6% less value than expected. Pitchers drafted out of high school were at -14.9%. High school hitters checked in at -20.9%.
2009 MLB Draft: Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (5-2)
We’ll jump right in and keep rolling with the fifth, fourth, third, and second ranked high school righthanded pitchers in the 2009 draft class. We’ve covered a good bit so far, but not enough to be intimidated at the prospect of catching up. All the cool kids are doing it!
Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (15 thru 11)
Top 15 High School Righthanded Pitchers (10 thru 6)
Mock Draft 1.0 (or everybody’s favorite feature)
A Method to the Madness (or what we are all about…or everybody’s least favorite feature)
Enough of that. High school righties ranked five thru 2 below the shameless attempt at increased traffic picture of Jessica Simpson that, yes, is tied into the rankings. Find out how below the jump…
Photo Credit: Freshnews.in
